Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions

Predicting the risk of invasion by broadleaf watermilfoil (Myriophyllum heterophyllum) in mainland Portugal

Broadleaf water milfoil (Myriophyllum heterophyllum) is an emerging invasive alien plant in Europe, and thus a priority for European Union (EU)-level surveillance, monitoring, and eradication. This species is native to North America and threatens aquatic ecosystems by creating dense stands that can fill an entire water body, leading to high economic costs and the loss of native biodiversity. Although its presence in Portugal is not reported, the species has already been established in several European countries, including neighboring Spain. In this study, we assessed the risk of invasion by this species in mainland Portugal by jointly considering environmentally suitable areas and the risk of human-mediated introduction. Environmental suitability was estimated using MaxEnt, which relates the known species distribution to climate, topography, and soil variables. The model achieved a mean area under the curve value of 0.96 ± 0.008 and identified the mean temperature of the warmest quarter as the most relevant variable for explaining the species distribution (67.2 %). Predictions from the model indicated that the peaks of suitability values were distributed mainly in temperate climate regions along central and northern coastal areas in Portugal. The risk of introduction was estimated by mapping and calculating the spatial density of the aquarium stores. Jointly considering environmental suitability and risk of introduction, we observed that hotspots at risk of invasion are concentrated on the Portuguese central and northern coasts and in the two main metropolitan areas, Lisbon and Porto. Several risk hotspots fall within protected areas and sites designated under the EU Habitats Directive, comprising water bodies of high significance for maintaining local vegetation and fauna. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures to reduce the risk of invasion by this species, namely, surveillance and monitoring efforts confirming its absence in the national territory and preventing its future arrival.

Risk of spread of the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) in Ghana

The impact of invasive species on biodiversity, food security and economy is increasingly noticeable in various regions of the globe as a consequence of climate change. Yet, there is limited research on how climate change affects the distribution of the invasive Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera:Liviidae) in Ghana. Using maxnet package to fit the Maxent model in R software, we answered the following questions; (i) what are the main drivers for D. citri distribution, (ii) what are the D. citri-specific habitat requirements and (iii) how well do the risk maps fit with what we know to be correctly based on the available evidence?. We found that temperature seasonality (Bio04), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer land cover and precipitation seasonality (Bio15), were the most important drivers of D. citri distribution. The results follow the known distribution records of the pest with potential expansion of habitat suitability in the future. Because many invasive species, including D. citri, can adapt to the changing climates, our findings can serve as a guide for surveillance, tracking and prevention of D. citri spread in Ghana.

Invasive wild deer exhibit environmental niche shifts in Australia: Where to from here?

Invasive species have established populations around the world and, in the process, characteristics of their realized environmental niches have changed. Because of their popularity as a source of game, deer have been introduced to, and become invasive in, many different environments around the world. As such, deer should provide a good model system in which to test environmental niche shifts. Using the current distributions of the six deer species present in Australia, we quantified shifts in their environmental niches that occurred since introduction; we determined the differences in suitable habitat between their international (native and invaded) and their Australian ranges. Given knowledge of their Australian habitat use, we then modeled the present distribution of deer in Australia to assess habitat suitability, in an attempt to predict future deer distributions. We show that the Australian niches of hog (Axis porcinus), fallow (Dama dama), red (Cervus elaphus), rusa (C. timorensis), and sambar deer (C. unicolor), but not chital deer (A. axis), were different to their international ranges. When we quantified the potential range of these six species in Australia, chital, hog, and rusa deer had the largest areas of suitable habitat outside their presently occupied habitat. The other three species had already expanded outside the ranges that we predicted as suitable. Here, we demonstrate that deer have undergone significant environmental niche shifts following introduction into Australia, and these shifts are important for predicting the future spread of these invasive species. It is important to note that current Australian and international environmental niches did not necessarily predict range expansions, thus wildlife managers should treat these analyses as conservative estimates.

Different GCMs yet similar outcome: predicting the habitat distribution of Shorea robusta C.F. Gaertn. in the Indian Himalayas using CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models

Climate change impact on the habitat distribution of umbrella species presents a critical threat to the entire regional ecosystem. This is further perilous if the species is economically important. Sal (Shorea robusta C.F. Gaertn.), a climax forest forming Central Himalayan tree species, is one of the most valuable timber species and provides several ecological services. Sal forests are under threat due to over-exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate change. Sal's poor natural regeneration and its unimodal density-diameter distribution in the region illustrate the peril to its habitat. We, modelled the current as well as future distribution of suitable sal habitats under different climate scenarios using 179 sal occurrence points and 8 bioclimatic environmental variables (non-collinear). The CMIP5-based RCP4.5 and CMIP6-based SSP245 climate models under 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 periods were used to predict the impact of climate change on sal's future potential distribution area. The niche model results predict the mean annual temperature and precipitation seasonality as the most influential sal habitat governing variables in the region. The current high suitability region for sal was 4.36% of the total geographic area, which shows a drastic decline to 1.31% and 0.07% under SSP245 for 2041-60 and 2061-80, respectively. The RCP-based models predicted more severe impact than SSP; however, both RCP and SSP models showed complete loss of high suitability regions and overall shift of species northwards in the Uttarakhand state. We could identify the current and future suitable habitats for conserving sal population through assisted regeneration and management of other regional issues.

Niche Filling Dynamics of Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) during Global Invasion

Determining whether the climatic ecological niche of an invasive alien plant is similar to that of the niche occupied by its native population (ecological niche conservatism) is essential for predicting the plant invasion process. Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) usually poses serious threats to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems within its newly occupied range. We calculated the overlap, stability, unfilling, and expansion of ragweed's climatic ecological niche using principal component analysis and performed ecological niche hypothesis testing. The current and potential distribution of A. artemisiifolia was mapped by ecological niche models to identify areas in China with the highest potential risk of A. artemisiifolia invasion. The high ecological niche stability indicates that A. artemisiifolia is ecologically conservative during the invasion. Ecological niche expansion (expansion = 0.407) occurred only in South America. In addition, the difference between the climatic and native niches of the invasive populations is mainly the result of unpopulated niches. The ecological niche model suggests that southwest China, which has not been invaded by A. artemisiifolia, faces an elevated risk of invasion. Although A. artemisiifolia occupies a climatic niche distinct from native populations, the climatic niche of the invasive population is only a subset of the native niche. The difference in climatic conditions is the main factor leading to the ecological niche expansion of A. artemisiifolia during the invasion. Additionally, human activities play a substantial role in the expansion of A. artemisiifolia. Alterations in the A. artemisiifolia niche would help explain why this species is so invasive in China.

The TOP-100 most dangerous invasive alien species in Northern Eurasia: invasion trends and species distribution modelling

Northern Eurasia is extensive and includes terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems that cover several natural zones and access to the seas of three oceans. As a result, it has been invaded by numerous invasive alien species (IAS) over large temporal and spatial scales. The purpose of this research was to assess invasion trends and construct species distribution models for the Russian TOP-100 most dangerous IAS. Environmentally suitable regions for IAS were established based on alien species attribute databases, datasets of 169,709 species occurrence records (SOR) and raster layers of environmental variables using species distribution modelling (MaxEnt). The objectives of this research were to (1) create databases of SOR for the TOP-100 IAS in Russia; 2) determine pathways, residence time, donor regions and trends of invasions; (3) determine the main types of spatial distributions of invasive species and their relation to residence time; and (4) distinguish regions with the highest richness of IAS that have a strong impact on the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of Russia. We found that although species invasions date back over 400 years, the number of naturalized IAS has increased non-linearly over the past 76 years. The TOP-100 list is mainly represented by unintentionally introduced species (62%) which are characterized by different introduction pathways. Species occurrence records revealed that 56 IAS are distributed locally, 26 are distributed regionally and 18 are widespread in Russia. Species with local, regional or widespread distributions were characterized by residence times of 55, 126 or 190 years, respectively. We found that IAS with local distribution can expand their range into suitable regions more extensively (expected increase by 32%) than widespread species (expected increase by only 7%). The procedure of identifying hot/cold spots locations based on SOR allowed us to identify the Russian regions with the highest richness of IAS. Our results and the integrated database that we created provide a framework for studying IAS over large temporal and spatial scales that can be used in the development of management plans for dangerous IAS.

Invasive Widow Spiders Perform Differently At Low Temperatures than Conspecifics from the Native Range

Temperature challenges are one of the leading abiotic causes of success or failure of non-native species in a novel environment, and this is particularly true for low temperatures. Establishing and reproducing in a novel thermal environment can alter survival, behaviour, and traits related to fitness. It has been proposed that plasticity or adaptation of thermal tolerance may allow an introduced species to thrive, or that successful invaders may be those with a thermal breadth in their native habitat that encompasses their new environment. Here, we tested these hypotheses using native and invasive populations of Australian redback spiders (Latrodectus hasselti). We measured how exposure to temperatures (exposure to 15°C and 25°C, respectively) common to invasive and native range habitats affected behavioural and life-history traits and tradeoffs that may underlie fitness in an invasive population detected in 1995 in Japan and a native population from Australia. We found that the critical thermal minimum (CTmin) was higher in the invasive population from Japan than in the native population, but critical thermal maximum (CTmax) did not differ between populations. Compared to the invasive population, eggs from the native population had a longer development time and lower hatching success at 15°C. Both populations performed equally well at 25 °C, as measured by egg development time and hatching success. Invasive juveniles that developed at 15 °C were slower to explore a novel environment and less bold when tested at 25 °C vs. 15 °C. In comparison, the native population showed faster average exploration, with no differences in response at the two development or testing temperatures. Overall, L. hasselti from Japan maintained hatching success and development across a wider temperature range than the native population, indicating greater thermal breadth and higher behavioural plasticity. These results support the importance of plasticity in thermal tolerance and behaviour for a successful invasion under novel environmental temperatures.

Suitable areas for invasive insect pests in Brazil and the potential impacts for eucalyptus forestry

BACKGROUND

Brazil is among the world's largest producers of eucalyptus and the damage caused by native and invasive insect pests is one of the main factors affecting eucalyptus yield. The recent history of biological invasions of eucalyptus pests in Brazil prompts demand for phytosanitary measures to prevent new invasions. This study used ecological niche models to estimate suitable areas for nine eucalyptus pests. This information was used to assess the potential ports of entry, generate invasion risk maps considering the likelihood of introducing invasive species, and estimate the eucalyptus producing municipalities and areas within the species' suitable range.

RESULTS

A large distribution range was predicted for Eucalyptolyma maideni (Hempitera: Aphalaridae), Orgya postica (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), Sinoxylon anale (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), and Trachymela sloanei (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Brazil, while a comparatively smaller distribution was predicted for Ophelimus maskelli (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), Mnesampela privata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), Paropsis atomaria (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), Paropsisterna beata, and P. cloelia (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). High-risk areas of invasion near airports and seaports were predicted mainly in southern, southeastern, and northeastern Brazil. A large proportion of the municipalities (24.4% to 93.7%) and areas with eucalyptus plantations (31.9% to 98.3%) are within the climatically suitable areas estimated for the pests, especially in southern and southeastern regions, which comprises 61.5% of the Brazilian eucalyptus production.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate that eucalyptus forestry may be significantly impacted by biological invasion. The findings provided by our study can assist decision-makers in developing phytosanitary measures to prevent new invasions of forest pests in Brazil. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Ecological Niche Shifts Affect the Potential Invasive Risk of Rapistrum rugosum (L.) All. in China

Ecological niche is a key concept that links species distributions. Ecological niche shifts are expected to affect the potential invasive risk of alien species. Rapistrum rugosum is an invasive agricultural weed in many countries. Wild populations of R. rugosum have been recorded in China, representing a great threat to the regional crops. Based on distribution records from different regions and relevant environmental variables, the present study predicted the potential distribution and estimated the invasive risk of R. rugosum in China. Ecological niche shifts strongly affected the potential invasive risk of R. rugosum in China. The two most important variables were annual temperature range (Bio7) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). The total suitable habitat for the species covered an area of 287.53 × 10⁴km² and was mainly distributed in Southwest, Southeast, and Central China. Australia, Canada, Brazil, the United States, and Argentina accounted for over 90% of the inspection records of R. rugosum from Chinese entry ports during 2015-2018. The intercepted R. rugosum was frequently mixed in Glycine max (L.) Merr., Hordeum vulgare L., linseed, Triticum aestivum L., and Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench. Moreover, 80% interceptions were recorded from Tianjin, Guangdong, Nanjing, and Chengdu customs. Climatic conditions do not limit the establishment capability of R. rugosum in China. Our results provide a theoretical reference for the development of monitoring and control measures for this invasive weed.

A global assessment of the potential distribution of naturalized and planted populations of the ornamental alien tree Schinus molle

The Peruvian Peppertree (Schinus molle L.) is an evergreen tree native to semiarid environments of Peru and Bolivia in South America. This tree has been introduced and widely planted for ornamental and forestry purposes in several semiarid regions of the world because its seedlings are easily established and have a high survival rate; it also grows quickly, and it is tolerant of dry climates. We compared the global and regional niches of naturalized and planted populations of S. molle in order to examine the invasive stages and potential distribution of this species in four regions of the world. This work provides a novel approach for understanding the invasion dynamics of S. molle in these areas and elucidates the ecological processes that bring about such invasions. Most naturalized and planted populations were found to be in equilibrium with the environment. In its native range as well as in Australia and South Africa the models of the coverage area of habitat suitability for natural populations were the highest, whereas the coverage area of planted populations was lower. For planted populations in Australia and South Africa, a large percentage of predicted presences fell within sink populations. The invasion stages of S. molle vary across regions in its adventive range; this result may be attributable to residence time as well as climatic and anthropic factors that have contributed to the spread of populations.

Diminished warming tolerance and plasticity in low-latitude populations of a marine gastropod

Models of species response to climate change often assume that physiological traits are invariant across populations. Neglecting potential intraspecific variation may overlook the possibility that some populations are more resilient or susceptible than others, creating inaccurate predictions of climate impacts. In addition, phenotypic plasticity can contribute to trait variation and may mediate sensitivity to climate. Quantifying such forms of intraspecific variation can improve our understanding of how climate can affect ecologically important species, such as invasive predators. Here, we quantified thermal performance (tolerance, acclimation capacity, developmental traits) across seven populations of the predatory marine snail (Urosalpinx cinerea) from native Atlantic and non-native Pacific coast populations in the USA. Using common garden experiments, we assessed the effects of source population and developmental acclimation on thermal tolerance and developmental traits of F1 snails. We then estimated climate sensitivity by calculating warming tolerance (thermal tolerance - habitat temperature), using field environmental data. We report that low-latitude populations had greater thermal tolerance than their high latitude counterparts. However, these same low-latitude populations exhibited decreased thermal tolerance when exposed to environmentally realistic higher acclimation temperatures. Low-latitude native populations had the greatest climate sensitivity (habitat temperatures near thermal limits). In contrast, invasive Pacific snails had the lowest climate sensitivity, suggesting that these populations are likely to persist and drive negative impacts on native biodiversity. Developmental rate significantly increased in embryos sourced from populations with greater habitat temperature but had variable effects on clutch size and hatching success. Thus, warming can produce widely divergent responses within the same species, resulting in enhanced impacts in the non-native range and extirpation in the native range. Broadly, our results highlight how intraspecific variation can alter management decisions, as this may clarify whether management efforts should be focused on many or only a few populations.

Quantifying Planococcus ficus (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) Invasion in Northern California Vineyards to Inform Management Strategy

The spread and impact of invasive species in exotic ranges can be mitigated by increased understanding of pest invasion dynamics. Here, we used geospatial analyses and habitat suitability modeling to characterize the invasion of an important vineyard pest, vine mealybug (Planococcus ficus Signoret, Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), using nearly 15,000 trapping records from throughout Napa County, California, between 2012 and 2017. Spatial autocorrelation among P. ficus detections was strongest at distances of ~250 m and detectable at regional scales (up to 40 km), estimates of the rate and directionality of spread were highly idiosyncratic, and P. ficus detection hotspots were spatiotemporally dynamic. Generalized linear model, boosted regression tree, and random forest modeling methods performed well in predicting habitat suitability for P. ficus. The most important predictors of P. ficus occurrence were a positive effect of precipitation in the driest month, and negative effects of elevation and distance to nearest winery. Our results indicate that 250-m quarantine and treatment zones around P. ficus detections are likely sufficient to encompass most local establishment and spread, and that implementing localized regulatory procedures may limit inadvertent P. ficus spread via anthropogenic pathways. Finally, surveys of P. ficus presence at >300 vineyard sites validated that habitat suitability estimates were significantly and positively associated with P. ficus frequency of occurrence. Our findings indicate that habitat suitability predictions may offer a robust tool for identifying areas in the study region at risk to future P. ficus invasion and prioritizing locations for early detection and preventative management efforts.

Local Segregation of Realised Niches in Lizards

Species can occupy different realised niches when sharing the space with other congeneric species or when living in allopatry. Ecological niche models are powerful tools to analyse species niches and their changes over time and space. Analysing how species’ realised niches shift is paramount in ecology. Here, we examine the ecological realised niche of three species of wall lizards in six study areas: three areas where each species occurs alone; and three areas where they occur together in pairs. We compared the species’ realised niches and how they vary depending on species’ coexistence, by quantifying niche overlap between pairs of species or populations with the R package ecospat. For this, we considered three environmental variables (temperature, humidity, and wind speed) recorded at each lizard re-sighting location. Realised niches were very similar when comparing syntopic species occurring in the same study area. However, realised niches differed when comparing conspecific populations across areas. In each of the three areas of syntopy, the less abundant species shift its realised niche. Our study demonstrates that sympatry may shift species’ realised niche.

Double trouble: the implications of climate change for biological invasions

The implications of climate change for biological invasions are multifaceted and vary along the invasion process. Changes in vectors and pathways are likely to manifest in changes in transport routes and destinations, together with altered transit times and traffic volume. Ultimately, changes in the nature of why, how, and where biota are transported and introduced will pose biosecurity challenges. These challenges will require increased human and institutional capacity, as well as proactive responses such as improved early detection, adaptation of present protocols and innovative legal instruments. Invasion success and spread are expected to be moderated by the physiological response of alien and native biota to environmental changes and the ensuing changes in biotic interactions. These in turn will likely affect management actions aimed at eradicating, containing, and mitigating invasions, necessitating an adaptive approach to management that is sensitive to potentially unanticipated outcomes.

Predicting the Invasion Potential of the Lily Leaf Beetle, Lilioceris lilii Scopoli (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), in North America

Invasive species are among the leading threats to global ecosystems due to impacts on native flora and fauna through competition and predation. The lily leaf beetle, Lilioceris lilii Scopoli (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), is an invasive pest of lilies (Lilium spp.) and other genera of Liliaceae (Liliales). A habitat suitability model was created using Maxent, to help predict if L. lilii will be able to establish in locations were native North American Liliaceae species grow. The model was created using georeferenced occurrence records from the beetle's native, naturalized, and invasive range. Model results indicate that precipitation in the driest quarter and annual average temperatures are most strongly correlated with L. lilii distribution, and suggest that the species will perform poorly in very dry, hot, or cold environments. The model also indicates that the beetle should be able to establish throughout the range of most North American Liliaceae genera, including species of special conservation concern. This model can be used by natural area managers to identify areas of high habitat suitability that overlap with vulnerable North American Liliaceae species, and prioritize L. lilii monitoring and control activities as the beetle continues to expand its range.

To invade or not to invade? Exploring the niche-based processes underlying the failure of a biological invasion using the invasive Chinese mitten crab

Invasive alien species represent a serious threat to global biodiversity, causing considerable damage to native ecosystems. To better assess invasion risks, it is essential to better understand the biological processes that determine the success or failure of invasions. The catadromous Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis, whose native distribution is the Pacific Coast of China and Korea, has successfully invaded and established populations in North America and Europe. In Japan, where E. sinensis is also regarded as potentially invasive and multiple introduction vectors exist, the species is not yet established. These settings can be used to explore niche-based processes underlying the apparent failure of a biological invasion. We first quantified native and invasive realized niches of E. sinensis in freshwater habitats using geometrical n-dimensional hypervolumes. Based on the assumption of niche conservatism, we then projected habitat suitability of this species in Japan using species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated with distinct sets of distribution data: native occurrences, invasive occurrences, and both. Results showed that E. sinensis has undergone either niche shifts or niche contractions during invasions in different areas of the world. Projections from SDMs indicate that although part of Japan is suitable for E. sinensis, this does not include the freshwater habitats around the Ariake Sea, which is considered to be a suitable marine environment for E. sinensis larvae. The mismatch between suitable freshwater and marine environments provides a possible explanation for the failure of establishment of E. sinensis in Japan to date. Our findings have useful general implications for the interpretation of biological invasions.

Identifying hotspots of invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates in Europe to assist transboundary prevention and control

This study aims to identify environmentally suitable areas for 15 of the most harmful invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (IATV) in Europe in a transparent and replicable way. We used species distribution models and publicly-available data from GBIF to predict environmental suitability and to identify hotspots of IATV accounting for knowledge gaps in their distributions. To deal with the ecological particularities of invasive species, we followed a hierarchical approach to estimate the global climatic suitability for each species and incorporated this information into refined environmental suitability models within Europe. Combined predictions on environmental suitability identified potential areas of IATV concentrations or hotspots. Uncertainty of predictions identified regions requiring further survey efforts for species detection. Around 14% of Europe comprised potential hotspots of IATV richness, mainly located in northern France, UK, Belgium and the Netherlands. IATV coldspots covered ~ 9% of Europe, including southern Sweden and Finland, and northern Germany. Most of Europe (~ 77% area) comprised uncertain suitability predictions, likely caused by a lack of data. Priorities on prevention and control should focus on potential hotspots where harmful impacts might concentrate. Promoting the collection of presence data within data-deficient areas is encouraged as a core strategy against IATVs.

Niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium undermine the usefulness of ecological niche models for invasion risk assessments

Niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium in invading alien species undermine niche-based predictions of alien species’ potential distributions and, consequently, their usefulness for invasion risk assessments. Here, we compared the realized climatic niches of four alien amphibian species (Hylarana erythraea, Rhinella marina, Hoplobatrachus rugulosus, and Kaloula pulchra) in their native and Philippine-invaded ranges to investigate niche changes that have unfolded during their invasion and, with this, assessed the extent of niche conservatism and environmental equilibrium. We investigated how niche changes affected reciprocal transferability of ecological niche models (ENMs) calibrated using data from the species’ native and Philippine-invaded ranges, and both ranges combined. We found varying levels of niche change across the species’ realized climatic niches in the Philippines: climatic niche shift for H. rugulosus; niche conservatism for R. marina and K. pulchra; environmental non-equilibrium in the Philippine-invaded range for all species; and environmental non-equilibrium in the native range or adaptive changes post-introduction for all species except H. erythraea. Niche changes undermined the reciprocal transferability of ENMs calibrated using native and Philippine-invaded range data. Our paper highlights the difficulty of predicting potential distributions given niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium; we suggest calibrating ENMs with data from species’ combined native and invaded ranges, and to regularly reassess niche changes and recalibrate ENMs as species’ invasions progress.

Rapid Genetic Divergence of an Invasive Species, Spartina alterniflora, in China

Hundreds of plants and half a kilogram of seeds of Spartina alterniflora, which were collected from Morehead City in North Carolina, Sapelo Island in Georgia, and Tampa Bay in Florida, were introduced to China in 1979. However, according to documented records, S. alterniflora from different origins were introduced to different areas when the species was first introduced to the coastal areas of China in the 1980s. In order to understand the relationship between the invasive S. alterniflora populations of China and the native S. alterniflora populations of the United States, and whether the genetic structure and genetic diversity of the invasive populations of China were affected by different introductions in the 1980s, molecular markers were used to determine the levels of gene flow and its effect on population differentiation. A total of 715 samples of S. alterniflora were collected from nine invasive populations in China and nine native populations from the United States. The genetic diversity and genetic structure of invasive and native populations were compared using microsatellite markers. The heterozygosity of Chinese invasive populations of S. alterniflora (HO = 0.538, HE = 0.725) were similar with those of native populations (HO = 0.530, HE = 0.744), which may attribute to its multiple introductions with the multisource populations from different geographic areas of the United States. However, the lower allelic diversities of Chinese invasive populations were detected, which may be due to the founder effect, or the bottleneck, which supports the theory that the allelic diversity is more sensitive to population bottlenecks than heterozygosity. The results of the STRUCTURE analysis among all sampling sites showed that the value of ΔK was largest when K = 2, which indicated that the invasive S. alterniflora populations in China had completed differentiated from the native populations of the United States. This may be because of admixture and hybridization of three non-overlapping original populations, or the postintroduction rapid evolution in China, and reproductive isolation under long-term geographic isolation. There was significant differentiation among invasive populations, which was mainly affected by different human-mediated introductions in 1980s. Significant genetic structure (K = 7) and high genetic differentiation (Fst = 0.30193) were detected in Chinese invasive populations, which may due to the low natural gene flow among populations. The genetic structure of the invasive populations in China was still affected by the human-mediated introductions in the 1980s, and the different initial introductions might promote differentiation among the invasive populations. In fact, the human-mediated long-distance dispersal should take the most of responsibility for the rapid spread of S. alterniflora along the coast of China. Multisource introductions of S. alterniflora are perhaps helpful for local adaptation but itself cannot cause rapid spread along the whole coast of China. Meanwhile, we suggest that the prevention of gene exchange among populations of S. alterniflora is the first and most important step in the control of the species on the coast of China, because admixture and hybridization of isolated populations might generate new heterosis and increase the difficulty of managing S. alterniflora in China.

How experimental physiology and ecological niche modelling can inform the management of marine bioinvasions?

Marine bioinvasions are increasing worldwide by a number of factors related to the anthroposphere, such as higher ship traffic, climate change and biotic communities' alterations. Generating information about species with high invasive potential is necessary to inform management decisions aiming to prevent their arrival and spread. Grateloupia turuturu, one of the most harmful invasive macroalgae, is capable of damaging ecosystem functions and services, and causing biodiversity loss. Here we developed an ecological niche model using occurrence and environmental data to infer the potential global distribution of G. turuturu. In addition, ecophysiological experiments were performed with G. turuturu populations from different climatic regions to test predictions regarding invasion risk. Our model results show high suitability in temperate and warm temperate regions around the world, with special highlight to some areas where this species still doesn't occur. Thalli representing a potential temperate region origin, were held at 10, 13, 16, 20 and 24 °C, and measurements of optimal quantum field (Fv/Fm) demonstrated a decrease of photosynthetic yield in the higher temperature. Thalli from the population already established in warm temperate South Atlantic were held at 18, 24 and 30 °C with high and low nutrient conditions. This material exposed to the higher temperature demonstrated a drop in photosynthetic yield and significant reduction of growth rate. The congregation of modelling and physiological approach corroborate the invasive potential of G. turuturu and indicate higher invasion risk in temperate zones. Further discussions regarding management initiatives must be fostered to mitigate anthropogenic transport and eventually promote eradication initiatives in source areas, with special focus in the South America. We propose that this combined approach can be used to assess the potential distribution and establishment of other marine invasive species.

Correlative climatic niche models predict real and virtual species distributions equally well

Climate is one of the main factors driving species distributions and global biodiversity patterns. Obtaining accurate predictions of species' range shifts in response to ongoing climate change has thus become a key issue in ecology and conservation. Correlative species distribution models (cSDMs) have become a prominent tool to this aim in the last decade and have demonstrated good predictive abilities with current conditions, irrespective of the studied taxon. However, cSDMs rely on statistical association between species' presence and environmental conditions and have rarely been challenged on their actual capacity to reflect causal relationships between species and climate. In this study, we question whether cSDMs can accurately identify if climate and species distributions are causally linked, a prerequisite for accurate prediction of range shift in relation to climate change. We compared the performance of cSDMs in predicting the distributions of 132 European terrestrial species, chosen randomly within five taxonomic groups (three vertebrate groups and two plant groups), and of 1,320 virtual species whose distribution is causally fully independent from climate. We found that (1) for real species, the performance of cSDMs varied principally with range size, rather than with taxonomic groups and (2) cSDMs did not predict the distributions of real species with a greater accuracy than the virtual ones. Our results unambiguously show that the high predictive power of cSDMs can be driven by spatial autocorrelation in climatic and distributional data and does not necessarily reflect causal relationships between climate and species distributions. Thus, high predictive performance of cSDMs does not ensure that they accurately depict the role of climate in shaping species distributions. Our findings therefore call for strong caution when using cSDMs to provide predictions on future range shifts in response to climate change.

The effect of local species composition on the distribution of an avian invader

Estimating the potential distribution of invasive species has been primarily achieved by employing species distribution models (SDM). Recently introduced joint species distribution models (JSDM) that include species interactions are expected to improve model output. Here we compare the predictive ability of SDM and JSDM by modelling the distribution of one of the most prolific avian invaders in the world, the common myna (Acridotheres tristis), in a recent introduction in Israel. Our results indicate that including information on the local species composition did not improve model accuracy, possibly because of the unique characteristics of this species that include broad environmental tolerance and behavior flexibility. However, the JSDM provided insights into co-occurrence patterns of common mynas and their local heterospecifics, suggesting that at this time point, there is no evidence of species exclusion by common mynas. Our findings suggest that the invasion potential of common mynas depends greatly on urbanization and less so on the local species composition and reflect the major role of anthropogenic impact in increasing the distribution of avian invaders.

Establishing surveillance areas for tackling the invasion of Vespa velutina in outbreaks and over the border of its expanding range

The yellow-legged hornet Vespavelutina is an invasive alien species in many areas of the world. In Europe, it is considered a species of Union concern and national authorities have to establish surveillance plans, early warning and rapid response systems or control plans. These strategies customarily require the assessment of the areas that could be colonised beyond outbreaks or expanding ranges, so as to establish efficient containment protocols. The hornet is spreading through a mix of natural diffusion and human-mediated transportation. Despite the latter dispersion mode is hardly predictable, natural diffusion could be modelled from nest data of consecutive years. The aim of this work is to develop a procedure to predict the spread of the yellow-legged hornet in the short term in order to increase the efficiency of control plans to restrain the diffusion of this species. We used data on the mean distances of colonial nests between years to evaluate the probability of yellow-legged hornet dispersal around the areas where the species is present. The distribution of nests in Italy was mainly explained by elevation (95% of nests located within 521 m a.s.l.) and distance from source sites (previous years’ colonies; 95% within 1.4–6.2 km). The diffusion models developed with these two variables forecast, with good accuracy, the spread of the species in the short term: 98–100% of nests were found within the predicted area of expansion. A similar approach can be applied in areas invaded by the yellow-legged hornet, in particular beyond new outbreaks and over the border of its expanding range, to implement strategies for its containment. The spatial application of the models allows the establishment of buffer areas where monitoring and control efforts can be allocated on the basis of the likelihood of the species spreading at progressively greater distances.

Variance in biomass-allocation fractions is explained by distribution in European trees

Intraspecific variability in ecological traits confers the ability of a species to adapt to an ever-changing environment. Fractions of biomass allocation in plants (BAFs) represent both ecological traits and direct expressions of investment strategies and so have important implications on plant fitness, particularly under current global change. We combined data on BAFs of trees in > 10 000 forest plots with their distributions in Europe. We aimed to test whether plant species with wider distributions have more or less variable intraspecific variance of the BAFs foliage-woody biomass and shoot-root ratios than species with limited distribution. Irrespective of corrections for tree age and phylogenetic relatedness, the standard deviation in BAFs was up to three times higher in species with the most extensive distributions than in those with the least extensive distribution due to a higher genetic diversity. Variance in BAFs also increased with latitude. We show that a combination of 36% tree genetic diversity and 64% environmental variability explains variance in BAFs and implies that changes in genetic diversity occur quickly. Genetic diversity should thus play a key role in regulating species responses to future climate change. Loss of habitat, even if transient, could induce a loss of genetic diversity and hinder species survival.

Ligustrum lucidum W. T. Aiton (broad-leaf privet) demonstrates climatic niche shifts during global-scale invasion

Biological invasions are a major threat to global biodiversity. Ligustrum lucidum, native to temperate Asia, is one of the most invasive plant species in the world. Climate is an important ecological factor influencing species distribution. Therefore, we investigated the climatic niche of L. lucidum in various regions of the world to determine whether it uses different climatic conditions in its invasive ranges than in its native range. The geographical coordinates of its occurrence were extracted from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and Southern African Plant Invaders Atlas databases. Climatic variables and altitude data were obtained from WorldClim. We evaluated niche overlap and performed niche similarity tests, and estimated niche shift parameters. L. lucidum occurs mostly in warm temperate climates. Niche overlap between native and invaded areas was low. Niche similarity tests indicated that the species could expand its occurrence into regions with climates similar to and different from that of its native range. We concluded that L. lucidum uses different realized climatic niches in its invasive ranges than in its native range. Warmer and wetter climatic conditions may not necessarily constrain this species from establishing populations outside of its native range.

Species distribution models throughout the invasion history of Palmer amaranth predict regions at risk of future invasion and reveal challenges with modeling rapidly shifting geographic ranges

Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri) is an annual plant native to the desert Southwest of the United States and Mexico and has become invasive and caused large economic losses across much of the United States. In order to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of past invasion, and to predict future invasion, we developed a broad array of species distribution models (SDMs). In particular, we constructed sequential SDMs throughout the invasion history and asked how well those predicted future invasion (1970 to present). We showed that invasion occurred from a restricted set of environments in the native range to a diverse set in the invaded range. Spatial autocorrelation analyses indicated that rapid range expansion was facilitated by stochastic, long-distance dispersal events. Regardless of SDM approach, all SDMs built using datasets from early in the invasion (1970–2010) performed poorly and failed to predict most of the current invaded range. Together, these results suggest that climate is unlikely to have influenced early stages of range expansion. SDMs that incorporated data from the most recent sampling (2011–2017) performed considerably better, predicted high suitability in regions that have recently become invaded, and identified mean annual temperature as a key factor limiting northward range expansion. Under future climates, models predicted both further northward range expansion and significantly increased suitability across large portions of the U.S. Overall, our results indicate significant challenges for SDMs of invasive species far from climate equilibrium. However, our models based on recent data make more robust predictions for northward range expansion of A. palmeri with climate change.

Combining Bayesian genetic clustering and ecological niche modeling: Insights into wolf intraspecific genetic structure

The distribution of intraspecific genetic variation and how it relates to environmental factors is of increasing interest to researchers in macroecology and biogeography. Recent studies investigated the relationships between the environment and patterns of intraspecific genetic variation across species ranges but only few rigorously tested the relation between genetic groups and their ecological niches. We quantified the relationship of genetic differentiation (F ST) and the overlap of ecological niches (as measured by n-dimensional hypervolumes) among genetic groups resulting from spatial Bayesian genetic clustering in the wolf (Canis lupus) in the Italian peninsula. Within the Italian wolf population, four genetic clusters were detected, and these clusters showed different ecological niches. Moreover, different wolf clusters were significantly related to differences in land cover and human disturbance features. Such differences in the ecological niches of genetic clusters should be interpreted in light of neutral processes that hinder movement, dispersal, and gene flow among the genetic clusters, in order to not prematurely assume any selective or adaptive processes. In the present study, we found that both the plasticity of wolves-a habitat generalist-to cope with different environmental conditions and the occurrence of barriers that limit gene flow lead to the formation of genetic intraspecific genetic clusters and their distinct ecological niches.

Climate change impacts on the distribution of the allergenic plant, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in the eastern United States

Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts.

Invasive alien plant species dynamics in the Himalayan region under climate change

Climate change will impact the dynamics of invasive alien plant species (IAPS). However, the ability of IAPS under changing climate to invade mountain ecosystems, particularly the Himalayan region, is less known. This study investigates the current and future habitat of five IAPS of the Himalayan region using MaxEnt and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Two invasive species, Ageratum conyzoides and Parthenium hysterophorus, will lose overall suitable area by 2070, while Ageratina adenophora, Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara will gain suitable areas and all of them will retain most of the current habitat as stable. The southern Himalayan foothills will mostly conserve species ecological niches, while suitability of all the five species will decrease with increasing elevation. Such invasion dynamics in the Himalayan region could have impacts on numerous ecosystems and their biota, ecosystem services and human well-being. Trans-boundary response strategies suitable to the local context of the region could buffer some of the likely invasion impacts.

Areas of high conservation value at risk by plant invaders in Georgia under climate change

Invasive alien plants (IAP) are a threat to biodiversity worldwide. Understanding and anticipating invasions allow for more efficient management. In this regard, predicting potential invasion risks by IAPs is essential to support conservation planning into areas of high conservation value (AHCV) such as sites exhibiting exceptional botanical richness, assemblage of rare, and threatened and/or endemic plant species. Here, we identified AHCV in Georgia, a country showing high plant richness, and assessed the susceptibility of these areas to colonization by IAPs under present and future climatic conditions. We used actual protected areas and areas of high plant endemism (identified using occurrences of 114 Georgian endemic plant species) as proxies for AHCV. Then, we assessed present and future potential distribution of 27 IAPs using species distribution models under four climate change scenarios and stacked single‐species potential distribution into a consensus map representing IAPs richness. We evaluated present and future invasion risks in AHCV using IAPs richness as a metric of susceptibility. We show that the actual protected areas cover only 9.4% of the areas of high plant endemism in Georgia. IAPs are presently located at lower elevations around the large urban centers and in western Georgia. We predict a shift of IAPs toward eastern Georgia and higher altitudes and an increased susceptibility of AHCV to IAPs under future climate change. Our study provides a good baseline for decision makers and stakeholders on where and how resources should be invested in the most efficient way to protect Georgia's high plant richness from IAPs.

Biotic Factors Affecting Ecosystem Services in Urban and Peri-Urban Forests in Italy: The Role of Introduced and Impending Pathogens and Pests

The present-day phytosanitary disasters caused by biological invasions are afflicting urban and peri-urban forest stands worldwide, as well as the varied services they normally provide. In Europe, we are witnessing an alarming situation due to an increasing introduction of infectious diseases and pests. The authors present an up-to-date list of alien microbial pathogens and insect pests affecting urban greening that have been accidentally imported in Italy or that are likely to be introduced. Information about the biology, epidemiology, ethology, and control of these invasive organisms is provided. For each species, the current geographical distribution, including newly-colonized areas, is also given, as well as the chronological progression of its occurrence. Particular detail is used for describing symptoms—the key diagnostic elements for appropriate and timely phytosanitary management. This paper will benefit urban forest management, which is a crucial factor in maintaining the social and ecological viability of urban green spaces, as well as ecosystem services. The importance of engaging citizens in community-based monitoring of urban greenspaces for tracking the location, abundance, and pathways of invasive pathogens and pests will also be touched upon.

Biotic and abiotic factors predicting the global distribution and population density of an invasive large mammal

Biotic and abiotic factors are increasingly acknowledged to synergistically shape broad-scale species distributions. However, the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting species distributions is unclear. In particular, biotic factors, such as predation and vegetation, including those resulting from anthropogenic land-use change, are underrepresented in species distribution modeling, but could improve model predictions. Using generalized linear models and model selection techniques, we used 129 estimates of population density of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) from 5 continents to evaluate the relative importance, magnitude, and direction of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting population density of an invasive large mammal with a global distribution. Incorporating diverse biotic factors, including agriculture, vegetation cover, and large carnivore richness, into species distribution modeling substantially improved model fit and predictions. Abiotic factors, including precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, were also important predictors. The predictive map of population density revealed wide-ranging potential for an invasive large mammal to expand its distribution globally. This information can be used to proactively create conservation/management plans to control future invasions. Our study demonstrates that the ongoing paradigm shift, which recognizes that both biotic and abiotic factors shape species distributions across broad scales, can be advanced by incorporating diverse biotic factors.