Can inclusion of serum creatinine values improve the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score and challenge the prognostic yield of the model for end-stage liver disease score in the short-term prognostic assessment of cirrhotic patients?

Recompensation in treatment-naïve HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis: a 5-year multi-center observational study comparing patients with ascites and bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Recompensation between patients with ascites and bleeding was unknown in treatment-naïve HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective multi-center study, treatment-naïve HBV-related decompensated patients were enrolled at first decompensating event of ascites and/or variceal bleeding. Further complications and clinical characteristics were collected using standard case report form every 6 months to year-5 of antiviral treatment. Recompensation was defined as maintaining free of decompensation for one year and achieving liver function within Child-Pugh A and/or MELD < 10.

RESULTS

Totally, 170 (170/298, 57.0%) patients in ascites group of 298 (298/383, 77.8%) treatment-naïve decompensated patients and 33 (33/85, 38.8%) in bleeding group of 85 (85/383, 22.2%) patients, achieved recompensation. Ascites group had higher 5-year rate of recompensation than bleeding group (63.3% vs. 46.5%, p = 0.012), respectively. Patients achieving recompensation in ascites group maintained lower rate of second decompensation than these in bleeding group (at year-5: 26.7% vs. 43.3%, p = 0.032). Specifically, recompensated patients in ascites group had predominantly 5-year rate of further ascites (24.0%) and lower rate of further bleeding (6.0%), which differed from the pattern of these in bleeding group, with lower rate of further ascites (16.0%, p = 0.599) and significantly higher rate of further bleeding (33.9%, p < 0.001). Both patients had superior long-term prognosis (death/LT rate at year-5: 0.6% vs. 3.0%, p = 0.196).

CONCLUSION

Ascites patients could achieve higher rate of recompensation through antiviral therapy than bleeding patients. Recompensated patients in ascites group had better prognosis in terms of preventing further bleeding.

Effect of elevated serum ferritin on the risk of death in patients with decompensated cirrhosis: a meta-analysis

It is still debatable whether serum ferritin is a potential prognostic marker in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. In this meta-analysis, we hope to investigate the relationship between elevated serum ferritin and the risk of death in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CNKI, SinoMed, WAN FANG, and ClinicalTrials.gov without language restrictions from inception to 3 October 2022, and finally identified a total of eight eligible studies with 1829 patients. The pooled prevalence of elevated serum ferritin in decompensated cirrhosis was 40.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 32.1-49.2%], and it was higher in males, patients with alcohol-associated liver disease, those with Child-Pugh grade C, those with hepatic encephalopathy, and nonsurvivors. Nonsurvivors had significantly higher serum ferritin levels than survivors [mean difference 247.90; 95% CI, 130.97-364.84]. With a pooled unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.38 (95% CI, 1.78-3.18), high serum ferritin was associated with an increased risk of death in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, with low heterogeneity among the included studies. In conclusion, high serum ferritin levels were associated with mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. More prospective and homogeneous clinical studies are required to validate our findings.

Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatitis E Virus-related Acute Liver Failure: A Multicenter Study in China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Timely and effective assessment scoring systems for predicting the mortality of patients with hepatitis E virus-related acute liver failure (HEV-ALF) are urgently needed. The present study aimed to establish an effective nomogram for predicting the mortality of HEV-ALF patients.

METHODS

The nomogram was based on a cross-sectional set of 404 HEV-ALF patients who were identified and enrolled from a cohort of 650 patients with liver failure. To compare the performance with that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring and CLIF-Consortium-acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C-ACLFs) models, we assessed the predictive accuracy of the nomogram using the concordance index (C-index), and its discriminative ability using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (td-ROC) analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the development set carried out to predict mortality revealed that γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, total bilirubin, urea nitrogen, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were independent factors, all of which were incorporated into the new nomogram to predict the mortality of HEV-ALF patients. The area under the curve of this nomogram for mortality prediction was 0.671 (95% confidence interval: 0.602-0.740), which was higher than that of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. Moreover, the td-ROC and decision curves analysis showed that both discriminative ability and threshold probabilities of the nomogram were superior to those of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. A similar trend was observed in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel nomogram is an accurate and efficient mortality prediction method for HEV-ALF patients.

Long-term survival prediction for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in severe cirrhotic ascites: assessment of ten prognostic models

OBJECTIVES

Patients with severe cirrhotic ascites have poor prognosis, yet individual patient survival varies greatly. Therefore, suitable prognostic models can be helpful in clinical decision making. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance of 10 scores in predicting transplant-free survival (TFS) after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in severe cirrhotic ascites.

METHODS

Two hundred eighty consecutive cirrhotic patients with severe ascites undergoing TIPS between March 2006 and December 2017 were retrospectively screened and included from nine tertiary Chinese centers, consisting of 123 patients with refractory ascites and 157 with recurrent ascites. Discriminatory ability of these models was further assessed in the whole cohort and subgroups.

RESULTS

TFS rates of all 280 patients were 75.4, 65.7, and 53.6% at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year follow-up, respectively. Compared with other prognostic systems, the integrated model for end-stage liver disease (iMELD, incorporating serum sodium and age) showed optimal performance in predicting 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year TFS. Cutoffs were determined according to c-index and were used to stratify patients into three strata presenting significantly different TFS for short-term and long-term: iMELD < 32, ≥32 but <38 and ≥38 (log-rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The iMELD score proved to be the best prognostic model in predicting TFS in patients with severe cirrhotic ascites receiving TIPS. Meanwhile, the model could stratify patients in three strata to help guiding clinical practice.

Prognostic Models for Survival in Patients with Stable Cirrhosis: A Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Two models are mostly used to predict survival in cirrhosis: the Child-Pugh score (CP score) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (MELD score).

AIMS

The aim of this study is to evaluate the CP score and the MELD score for short- and long-term prognosis in cirrhosis, as well as CP-creatinine score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score.

METHODS

One thousand and forty-seven patients from five referral centers were included: men/women: 620/427, median age: 58 years (IQR 48-66), median follow-up: 33 months (IQR 12-74), CP (A/B/C): 493/357/147, CP score: 7 (IQR 5-9), MELD score: 12 (IQR 9-16). The performance of each score was evaluated by the Cox hazard model in terms of their: discrimination ability (C-index and Somer's D) and calibration (3, 12 months). Internal validation was done with bootstrapping (100 samples).

RESULTS

Three hundred and fifty-two patients (33.6%) died. All scores were significantly associated with overall mortality, when assessed by univariate Cox analysis. CP-creatinine score performed significantly better than all other scores [bootstrap C-index 0.672, 95% CI 0.642-0.703, bootstrap Somer's D 0.344 (0.285-0.401)], apart from CP score, which showed similar performance. Inclusion in the multivariable Cox model of age together with CP-creatinine score improved the discriminative ability of the model [bootstrap C-index (95% CI) 0.700 (0.661-0.740)]. In terms of calibration, CP-creatinine score was the best for both 3- and 12-month survival in the total population.

CONCLUSIONS

CP score and CP-creatinine score have better prognostic value compared to MELD score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score for predicting short- and long-term mortality in patients with stable cirrhosis.

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.

Moderate hyperkalemia in hospitalized patients with cirrhotic ascites indicates a poor prognosis

OBJECTIVE

Development of ascites in patients with liver cirrhosis is an ominous sign with a poor outcome. A liver transplantation must be considered, and it then becomes important to know if there are any factors indicating a worsened prognosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We used official registers for a follow-up study of at least 5 years considering the prognosis of 155 prospectively recruited in-patients with cirrhotic ascites from medical units at nine Swedish university hospitals. All patients had undergone at least one diagnostic ascites tap, and had initially been questioned about background factors and physically examined according to a standardized case record form, followed by sampling of blood, urine, and ascites.

RESULTS

Death occurred within 1 year after inclusion in 53% of the cases, and was primarily liver-related in 70%. In a multivariable analysis, the two ordinary variables that showed the strongest correlation with risk of death were serum potassium and abdominal tenderness. All 22 patients with a serum potassium concentration of at least 4.8 mmol/L (maximum 5.8 mmol/L) died within 1 year after inclusion. Potassium concentration was related to renal function and potassium-saving drugs.

CONCLUSION

This follow-up study of a prospectively recruited cohort of in-patients with cirrhotic ascites confirms their poor prognosis. Awareness of an elevated serum potassium value, which would reflect a threatened renal function, seems essential, because it may offer a simple way to identify cases with the worst prognosis. An area for further research should be to explore the significance of including serum potassium in prognostic models.

Child-Na score: a predictive model for survival in cirrhotic patients with symptomatic portal hypertension treated with TIPS

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Several models have been developed to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis undergoing TIPS; however, few of these models have gained widespread acceptance, especially in the era of covered stents. The aim of this study was to establish an evidence-based model for predicting survival after TIPS procedures.

METHODS

A total of 210 patients with cirrhosis treated with TIPS were considered in the study. We comprehensively investigated factors associated with one-year survival and developed a new predictive model using the Cox regression model.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, the Child-Pugh score and serum sodium levels were independent predictors of one-year survival. A new score incorporating serum sodium into the Child-Pugh score was developed: Child-Na score. We compared the predictive accuracy of Child-Na score with that of other scores; only the Child-Na and MELD-Na scores had adequate predictive ability in patients with serum Na levels <138 mmol/L. The best Child-Na cut-off score (15.5) differentiated two groups of patients with distinct prognoses (one-year cumulative survival rates of 80.6% and 45.5%); this finding was confirmed in a validation cohort (n = 86). In a subgroup analysis stratifying patients by indication for TIPS, the Child-Na score distinguished patients with different prognoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with variceal bleeding and a Child-Na score ≤15 had a better prognosis than patients with a score ≥16. Patients with refractory ascites and a Child-Na score ≥16 had a high risk of death after the TIPS procedures; caution should be used when treating these patients with TIPS.

Predicting Mortality Across a Broad Spectrum of Liver Disease-An Assessment of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and Creatinine-Modified CTP Scores

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The role of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) among Indian patients with cirrhosis is uncertain. We studied and compared MELD with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and creatinine-modified-CTP (CrCTP) scores for predicting 1-, 3-, and 6-months mortality.

METHODS

One-hundred and two patients with cirrhosis were studied. The CrCTP was calculated by adding creatinine score of 0, 2 and 4 with creatinine levels of ≤1.2mg/dL, 1.3-1.8 mg/dL and ≥1.9mg/dL, respectively to CTP score. Survival curves were plotted and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to compare the scores. Predictors of mortality were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Scores of CTP, CrCTP, and MELD have excellent diagnostic accuracy for predicting mortality (c-statistics >0.85). The MELD was superior to CTP for predicting 3-months [c-statistic and 95% confidence interval, 0.967 (0.911-0.992) vs 0.884 (0.806-0.939)] and 6-months [0.977 (0.925-0.996) vs 0.908 (0.835-0.956)] mortality (P=0.05), while CrCTP [0.958 (0.899-0.988)] was better than CTP for predicting 3-months mortality (P=0.02). Serum creatinine (hazard ratio 4.43, P<0.0001) is a strong independent predictor of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The MELD accurately predicts mortality in cirrhosis and is better than CTP for predicting the short-term and intermediate-term mortality. Adding serum creatinine to CTP though significantly improves its diagnostic accuracy for short-term mortality; however, it remains lower than MELD alone.

Application of a biochemical and clinical model to predict individual survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

AIM: To investigate the capability of a biochemical and clinical model, BioCliM, in predicting the survival of cirrhotic patients.

METHODS: We prospectively evaluated the survival of 172 cirrhotic patients. The model was constructed using clinical (ascites, encephalopathy and variceal bleeding) and biochemical (serum creatinine and serum total bilirubin) variables that were selected from a Cox proportional hazards model. It was applied to estimate 12-, 52- and 104-wk survival. The model’s calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was computed at 104 wk in a validation dataset. Finally, the model’s validity was tested among an independent set of 85 patients who were stratified into 2 risk groups (low risk ≤ 8 and high risk > 8).

RESULTS: In the validation cohort, all measures of fit, discrimination and calibration were improved when the biochemical and clinical model was used. The proposed model had better predictive values (c-statistic: 0.90, 0.91, 0.91) than the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh (CP) scores for 12-, 52- and 104-wk mortality, respectively. In addition, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic revealed that the biochemical and clinical model (H-L, 4.69) is better calibrated than MELD (H-L, 17.06) and CP (H-L, 14.23). There were no significant differences between the observed and expected survival curves in the stratified risk groups (low risk, P = 0.61; high risk, P = 0.77).

CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the proposed model is able to accurately predict survival in cirrhotic patients.

Evaluation of model for end stage liver disease (MELD)-based systems as prognostic index for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The Cancer of Liver Italian Program (CLIP) and Japan Integrated Scoring System (JIS) used the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score to evaluate the liver function.

AIM

We aimed to evaluate the performance of Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) based CLIP and JIS to predict the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Consecutive patients with HCC who presented to our Hepatoma Clinic from January 2003 to April 2005 were studied. MELD-based CLIP and JIS were generated by replacing the original CTP score with MELD score at three categories (<10, 10-14 and >14).

RESULTS

Among 471 HCC patients (85.1% males; aged 58.8 +/- 12.2 years), 73% had chronic hepatitis B, 37.4% had >1 nodule, 84.1% had tumor size >2 cm, 55.0% had Child's B cirrhosis, 12.7% underwent tumor resection and 20.6% received locoregional therapy. The cumulative survival at 3 and 6 months were 67% and 55%, respectively. For 3-month survival, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of MELD-CLIP (0.69) and MELD-JIS (0.69) were superior to the original systems (0.64, P = 0.004 and 0.64, P = 0.0018, respectively). For 6-month survival, AUC of MELD-CLIP (0.64) and MELD-JIS (0.62) were also superior to the original systems (0.54, P = 0.003 and 0.59, P = 0.002, respectively). The MELD-based systems performed best among patients who received locoregional therapy to HCC. Advanced cirrhosis (hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, ascites, coagulopathy and elevated creatinine), and cancer (portal vein thrombosis, elevated alpha-fetoprotein, large and multiple tumors) were associated with higher mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-based systems performed better than Child-Pugh based systems as prognostic indexes for HCC.

Elevated soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 75 concentrations identify patients with liver cirrhosis at risk of death

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Elevated levels of the soluble 75-kd receptor for tumor necrosis factor-alpha (sTNF-R 75) are better predictors of mortality in cirrhosis than the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score. Thus, we compared sTNF-R 75 with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), CTP, and the sTNF-R 75/55 ratio.

METHODS

Ninety-two patients with liver cirrhosis (mean age, 55 years; range, 19-76 years; male, 66%; CTP stage C, 41%) were included in our prospective single-center survival study. The study setting was a tertiary care university clinic. Soluble TNF-R levels were determined, and the primary end point was death.

RESULTS

During > or =730 days, 44 patients died. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed sTNF-R 75 (> or =14 ng/mL) as an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 2.53; P = .006). By receiver operating characteristic, MELD and sTNF-R 75 were more accurate in predicting 6-, 15-, and 24-month mortality than CTP and sTNF-R 75/55. This was significant for 6 months (MELD, 0.78; sTNF-R 75, 0.75 vs sTNF-R 75/55, 0.60). In patients with high MELD scores (> or =15), survival was further reduced if sTNF-R 75 values were elevated (P = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated sTNF-R 75 levels independently predicted mortality and improved MELD on the basis of evaluation of prognosis, especially in patients with high MELD scores. Thus, sTNF-R 75 levels might be a useful cytokine-based prognostic marker in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Can the MELD Score Predict Perioperative Morbidity for Patients with Liver Cirrhosis Undergoing Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy?

The Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is a mortality predictor in patients awaiting liver transplantation. We evaluated the MELD score's ability to predict morbidity for patients with cirrhosis undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy. From March 1991 to February 2004, data of all patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy were prospectively collected. Data of patients with liver cirrhosis were reviewed. The MELD and Child scores were correlated with outcome variables. Of 7859 patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy, 99 patients (1.3%) exhibited liver cirrhosis, 44 women and 55 men. The mean age was 55 years (range, 28 to 92 years). The mortality rate was 6.3 per cent, morbidity rate 18 per cent, and conversion rate 11 per cent. Laboratory values on 55 patients were available to calculate MELD scores. The mean MELD score was 11 (range, 6 to 23). There was no significant variation in MELD scores with gender ( P = 0.61) or cirrhosis etiology, alcoholic and nonalcoholic ( P = 0.52). MELD and Child's score correlated well ( P < 0.001); however, the risk of complication was not related to the MELD ( P = 0.94) or Child-Pugh-Turcotte score ( P = 0.26). Morbidity for patients with liver cirrhosis undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy remains high. The MELD score is useful for transplant risk stratification for but requires further investigation regarding morbidity prediction for laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

Child-Pugh-Turcott versus Meld score for predicting survival in a retrospective cohort of black African cirrhotic patients

AIM: To compare the performance of the Child-Pugh-Turcott (CPT) score to that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting survival of a retrospective cohort of 172 Black African patients with cirrhosis on a short and mid-term basis.

METHODS: Univariate and multivariate (Cox model) analyses were used to identify factors related to mortality. Relationship between the two scores was appreciated by calculating the correlation coefficient. The Kaplan Meier method and the log rank test were used to elaborate and compare survival respectively. The Areas Under the Curves were used to compare the performance between scores at 3, 6 and 12 mo.

RESULTS: The study population comprised 172 patients, of which 68.9% were male. The mean age of the patient was 47.5 ± 13 years. Hepatitis B virus infection was the cause of cirrhosis in 70% of the cases. The overall mortality was 31.4% over 11 years of follow up. Independent factors significantly associated with mortality were: CPT score (HR = 3.3, 95% CI [1.7-6.2]) (P < 0.001) (stage C vs stage A-B); Serum creatine (HR = 2.5, 95% CI [1.4-4.3]) (P = 0.001) (Serum creatine > 1.5 mg/dL versus serum creatine < 1.5 mg/dL); MELD score (HR = 2.9, 95% CI [1.63-5.21]) (P < 0.001) (MELD > 21 vs MELD < 21). The area under the curves (AUC) that predict survival was 0.72 and 0.75 at 3 mo (P = 0.68), 0.64 and 0.62 at 6 mo (P = 0.67), 0.69 and 0.64 at 12 mo (P = 0.38) respectively for the CPT score and the MELD score.

CONCLUSION: The CPT score displays the same prognostic significance as does the MELD score in black African patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, its handling appears less cumbersome in clinical practice as compared to the latter.

Hospital mortality prediction of four severity scoring models on hepatitis B and acute-on-chronic liver failure: an analysis of 76 cases

AIM: To compare the applicability between liver failure special severity scoring systems and intensive care unit (ICU) general severity scoring systems on predicting the hospital mortality of critical hepatitis B and acute-on-chronic liver failure patients.

METHODS: The data of 76 patients with hepatitis B and acute-on-chronic liver failure were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into dead group (n = 34) and survival group (n = 42). Two liver failure special severity scoring models, MELD and SMSVH, and ICU general severity scoring models, acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ (APACHEⅡ) and APACHEⅢ, were used in the analysis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn up to assess the ability of these models in hospital mortality discrimination.

RESULTS: The scores in death group were significantly higher than those in survival group (MELD: 38.19 ± 8.09 vs 24.12 ± 7.16; SMSVH: 5.29 ± 1.36 vs 4.19 ± 1.09; APACHEⅡ: 15.47 ± 4.06 vs 10.79 ± 2.56; APACHEⅢ: 73.50 ± 17.79 vs 60.02 ± 10.06; all P < 0.01). The areas under ROC curves for these 4 models were 0.906 (MELD), 0.848 (APACHEⅡ), 0.770 (APACHEⅢ) and 0.749 (SMSVH).

CONCLUSION: MELD exhibits the best ability to predict hospital mortality.

Laboratory Test Variability and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Calculation: Effect on Liver Allocation and Proposal for Adjustment

BACKGROUND

The use of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to prioritize patients on liver waiting lists must take the bias of different laboratories into account.

METHODS

We evaluated the outcome of 418 patients listed during 1 year whose MELD score was computed by two laboratories (lab 1 and lab 2). The two labs had different normality ranges for bilirubin (maximal normal value [Vmax]: 1.1 for lab 1 and 1.2 for lab 2) and creatinine (Vmax: 1.2 for lab 1 and 1.4 for lab 2). The outcome during the waiting time was evaluated by considering the liver transplantations and the dropouts, which included deaths on the list, tumor progression, and patients who were too sick.

RESULTS

Although the clinical features of patients were similar between the two laboratories, 36 (13.1%) out of 275 were dropped from the list in lab 1, compared to 5 (3.5%) out of 143 in lab 2 (P<0.01). The differences were mainly due to the deaths on the list (8% lab 1 vs. 2.1% lab 2, P<0.05). The competing risk analysis confirmed the different risk of dropout between the two labs independently of the MELD score, blood group, and preoperative diagnosis. The bias on MELD calculation was considered and bilirubin and creatinine values were "normalized" to Vmax of lab 1 (corrected value=measured value x Vmax lab 1/Vmax lab 2). By comparing receiver operating characteristic curves, the ability of MELD to predict the 6-month dropouts significantly increased from an area under the curve of 0.703 to 0.716 after "normalization" (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Normalization of MELD is a correct and good compromise to avoid systematic bias due to different laboratory methods.

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) was initially created to predict survival in patients with complications of portal hypertension undergoing elective placement of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts. The MELD which uses only objective variables was validated subsequently as an accurate predictor of survival among different populations of patients with advanced liver disease. The major use of the MELD score has been in allocation of organs for liver transplantation. However, the MELD score has also been shown to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis who have infections, variceal bleeding, as well as in patients with fulminant hepatic failure and alcoholic hepatitis. MELD may be used in selection of patients for surgery other than liver transplantation and in determining optimal treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who are not candidates for liver transplantation. Despite the many advantages of the MELD score, there are approximately 15%-20% of patients whose survival cannot be accurately predicted by the MELD score. It is possible that the addition of variables that are better determinants of liver and renal function may improve the predictive accuracy of the model. Efforts at further refinement and validation of the MELD score will continue.

Serum creatinine in patients with advanced liver disease is of limited value for identification of moderate renal dysfunction: are the equations for estimating renal function better?

BACKGROUND

The Cockcroft-Gault formula (CGF) is used to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) based on serum creatinine (Cr) levels, age and sex. A new formula developed by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study Group, based on the patient's Cr levels, age, sex, race and serum urea nitrogen and serum albumin levels, has shown to be more accurate. However, the best formula to identify patients with advanced liver disease (ALD) and moderate renal dysfunction (GFR 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or less) is not known. The aim of the present study was to compare calculations of GFR, using published formulas (excluding those requiring urine collections) with standard radionuclide measurement of GFR in patients with ALD.

METHODS

Fifty-seven consecutive subjects (40% women) with a mean age of 50 years (range 16 to 67 years) underwent 99m-technetium-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (99mTc-DTPA) (single injection) radionuclide measurement of GFR. To calculate GFR, three formulas were used: the reciprocal of Cr multiplied by 100 (100/Cr), the CGF and the MDRD formulas. Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and Bland-Altman analyses of agreement were used to analyze the association between 99mTc-DTPA clearance and the three equations for GFR.

RESULTS

The mean 99mTc-DTPA clearance was 83 mL/min/1.73 m2 (range 28 mL/min/1.73 m2 to 173 mL/min/1.73 m2). Mean calculated GFRs by 100/Cr, the CGF and the MDRD formula were 106 mL/min/1.73 m2, 98 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 86 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. Regression analysis showed good correlation between radionuclide GFR and calculated GFR with r(100/Cr)=0.74, r(CGF)=0.80, r(MDRD)=0.87, all at P > or = 0.0001. The MDRD formula provided the least bias. The Bland-Altman plot showed best agreement between GFR calculated by the MDRD formula and 99mTc-DTPA clearance, with only 3 mL/min/1.73 m2 overestimation. There was higher variability between radionuclide GFR and calculated GFR by the CGF and by 100/Cr. Although there was no difference in precision, GFR calculated by the MDRD formula had the best overall accuracy. The sensitivity and specificity for detection of moderate renal dysfunction by the MDRD formulas were 73% and 87%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the Cr-based GFR formulas, the MDRD formula showed a larger proportion of agreement with radionuclide GFR in patients with ALD. In clinical practice, the MDRD is the best formula for detection of moderate renal dysfunction among those with ALD.

Evaluation of model for end-stage liver disease for prediction of mortality in decompensated chronic hepatitis B

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to study the predictive ability of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) for short-term mortality in chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

All patients admitted from 1996 to 2003 because of chronic hepatitis B and its related complications were identified by electronic search of the hospital database. MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores on initial admissions were calculated. Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the factors associated with mortality. The area under receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC) was used to determine the predictive abilities of the two models for 3-month and 1-yr mortalities.

RESULTS

A total of 2,073 patients was admitted because of liver-related problems and 506 patients had chronic hepatitis B-related complications. Two hundred fifty-six (51%) patients died and 16 (3%) patients underwent liver transplantation. In multivariate analysis, MELD and CTP scores were independent predictors of 3-month and 1-yr mortality. Other independent predictors of mortality included older age, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), lamivudine treatment, and lower serum sodium. At both 3 months and 1 yr, the AUC of the MELD score (0.65 and 0.63, respectively) was significantly lower than that of the CTP score (0.75 and 0.77, respectively) (p < 0.0001). The differences remained significant when only liver cirrhosis patients without HCC at presentation were analyzed, but the AUC of the two scores became comparable when patients on lamivudine were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD score is a valid prognostic model in decompensated chronic hepatitis B. Lamivudine treatment may affect the performance of MELD score. Other variables including those in CTP score may improve its predictive ability.

Liver transplantation with the Meld system: a prospective study from a single European center

The efficacy of the Meld system to allocate livers has never been investigated in European centers. The outcome of 339 patients with chronic liver disease listed according to their Meld score between 2003 and 2005 (Meld era) was compared to 224 patients listed during the previous 2 years according to their Child score (Child era). During the Meld era, hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) had a 'modified' Meld based on their real Meld, waiting time and tumor stage. The dropouts were deaths, tumor progressions and too sick patients. The rate of removals from the list due to deaths and tumor progressions was significantly lower in the Meld than in the Child era: 10% and 1.2% versus 16.1% and 4.9%, p < 0.05. The 1-year patient survival on the list was significantly higher in the Meld era (84% vs. 72%, p < 0.05). The prevalence of transplantation for HCC increased from 20.5% in the Child to 48.9% in the Meld era (p < 0.001), but between HCCs and non-HCCs of this latter era the dropouts were comparable (9.4% vs. 14.9%, p = n.s.) as was the 1-year patient survival on the list (83% vs. 84%, p = n.s.). The Meld allocation system improved the outcome of patients with or without HCC on the list.

Systematic review: The model for end-stage liver disease--should it replace Child-Pugh's classification for assessing prognosis in cirrhosis?

BACKGROUND

Prognosis in cirrhotic patients has had a resurgence of interest because of liver transplantation and new therapies for complications of end-stage cirrhosis. The model for end-stage liver disease score is now used for allocation in liver transplantation waiting lists, replacing Child-Turcotte-Pugh score. However, there is debate as whether it is better in other settings of cirrhosis.

AIM

To review studies comparing the accuracy of model for end-stage liver disease score vs. Child-Turcotte-Pugh score in non-transplant settings.

RESULTS

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt studies (with 1360 cirrhotics) only one of five, showed model for end-stage liver disease to be superior to Child-Turcotte-Pugh to predict 3-month mortality, but not for 12-month mortality. Prognosis of cirrhosis studies (with 2569 patients) none of four showed significant differences between the two scores for either short- or long-term prognosis whereas no differences for variceal bleeding studies (with 411 cirrhotics). Modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, by adding creatinine, performed similarly to model for end-stage liver disease score. Hepatic encephalopathy and hyponatraemia (as an index of ascites), both components of Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, add to the prognostic performance of model for end-stage liver disease score.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on current literature, model for end-stage liver disease score does not perform better than Child-Turcotte-Pugh score in non-transplant settings. Modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease scores need further evaluation.

Longitudinal modifications of the MELD score have prognostic meaning in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is an important and well established tool for assessing prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis. It has been suggested that the longitudinal evaluation of the MELD score may reflect the progression of liver failure more reliably and therefore be more useful in prognostic assessment.

AIM

To assess the prognostic meaning of MELD score modifications in a cohort of cirrhotic patients in whom clinical and biochemical workup was carried out at least twice during a minimum interval of 30 days.

METHODS

Forty-six cirrhotic patients were longitudinally evaluated for a median follow-up of 365 days. After initial assessment, all the patients had at least one clinical and biochemical reevaluation during follow-up, which was performed no less than 1 month after initial evaluation. MELD was calculated at entry and at second evaluation. DeltaMELD was calculated as MELD at second evaluation minus MELD at entry. DeltaMELD/time was calculated as DeltaMELD divided by time elapsed between initial assessment and second evaluation expressed in months.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 13 patients died (28%). The median interval between clinical evaluations was 120 days. MELD scores at entry (13 +/- 4 vs 16 +/- 6, P = 0.0516) and DeltaMELD (0 +/- 4 vs 4 +/- 2, P = 0.0028) were significantly different between patients who died and those who survived during the 1-year follow-up. All the patients who died during follow-up showed an increase of at least 1 unit in DeltaMELD/time (sensitivity = 100%), and all the patients who survived showed a decrease of more than 1 unit in DeltaMELD/time (specificity = 100%).

CONCLUSIONS

Longitudinal evaluation of the MELD score provides important prognostic information that seems to complete the prognostic definition provided by "static" MELD. Prospective studies in larger series are needed to validate the prognostic use of MELD modifications over time.