The Effect of Perceived Control on Risk Taking1

Online Personalized Preference Learning Method Based on In-Formative Query for Lane Centering Control Trajectory

The personalization of autonomous vehicles or advanced driver assistance systems has been a widely researched topic, with many proposals aiming to achieve human-like or driver-imitating methods. However, these approaches rely on an implicit assumption that all drivers prefer the vehicle to drive like themselves, which may not hold true for all drivers. To address this issue, this study proposes an online personalized preference learning method (OPPLM) that utilizes a pairwise comparison group preference query and the Bayesian approach. The proposed OPPLM adopts a two-layer hierarchical structure model based on utility theory to represent driver preferences on the trajectory. To improve the accuracy of learning, the uncertainty of driver query answers is modeled. In addition, informative query and greedy query selection methods are used to improve learning speed. To determine when the driver's preferred trajectory has been found, a convergence criterion is proposed. To evaluate the effectiveness of the OPPLM, a user study is conducted to learn the driver's preferred trajectory in the curve of the lane centering control (LCC) system. The results show that the OPPLM can converge quickly, requiring only about 11 queries on average. Moreover, it accurately learned the driver's favorite trajectory, and the estimated utility of the driver preference model is highly consistent with the subject evaluation score.

Positive fortune telling enhances men’s financial risk taking

Fortune telling is a widespread phenomenon, yet little is known about the extent to which people are affected by it—including those who consider themselves non-believers. The present research has investigated the power of a positive fortune telling outcome (vs. neutral vs. negative) on people’s financial risk taking. In two online experiments (n1 = 252; n2 = 441), we consistently found that positive fortune telling enhanced financial risk taking particularly among men. Additionally, we used a real online gambling game in a lab setting (n3 = 193) and found that positive fortune telling enhanced the likelihood that college students gambled for money. Furthermore, a meta-analysis of these three studies demonstrated that the effect of positive fortune telling versus neutral fortune telling was significant for men, but virtually absent for women. Thus, positive fortune telling can yield increased financial risk taking in men, but not (or less so) in women.

Is safety in the eye of the beholder? Discrepancies between self-reported and proxied data on road safety behaviors—A systematic review

Recent studies have problematized on the lack of agreement between self-reported and proxied data in the field of road safety-related behaviors. Overall, and although these studies are still scarce, most of them suggest that the way we perceive our own road behavior is systematically different from the perspective from which we perceive others' behavior, and vice versa. The aim of this review paper was to target the number and type of studies that have researched the behavioral perceptions of different groups of road users, contrasting self-reported behavioral data with those reported by other users (proxied), and their outcomes. This systematic review followed the PRISMA methodology, which allows for the identification of relevant articles based on the research term. A total number of 222 indexed articles were filtered, and a final selection of 19 articles directly addressing the issue was obtained. Search strategies were developed and conducted in MEDLINE, WOS, Scopus and APA databases. It is remarkable how road users perceive themselves as behaviorally “safer” than the rest of road users in what concerns the knowledge of traffic norms and their on-road performance. In addition, and regardless of the type of user used as a source, self-reported data suggest their perceived likelihood to suffer a traffic crash is lesser if compared to any other user. On the other hand, proxied reports tend to undervalue third users' performance, and to perceive riskier behaviors and crash-related risks among them. The outputs of this systematic review support the idea that the perception of road users' behavior and its related risks substantially differ according to the source. It is also necessary to increase the number, coverage and rigor of studies on this matter, perhaps through complementary and mixed measures, in order to properly understand and face the bias on road users' risk-related behaviors.

Cognitive Biases, Risk Perception, and Risky Driving Behaviour

This study evaluated the relationship between drivers’ cognitive biases (i.e., optimism bias, illusion of control) and risky driving behaviour. It also investigated the mediational role of risk perception in the relationship between cognitive biases and self-reported risky driving. The sample included 366 drivers (Mage = 39.13, SD = 13.63 years) who completed scales measuring optimism bias, illusion of control, risk perception, and risky driving behaviour, as well as demographic information. The results showed that risky driving behaviour was negatively predicted by optimism bias and positively predicted by the illusion of control. Further, risk perception negatively correlated with risky behaviour and also mediated the relation between both optimism bias and illusion of control with risky driving. The practical implications of these results for traffic safety and future research are discussed.

Social optimism biases are associated with cortical thickness

Optimism biases denote the tendency to see future desirable events as being more likely to happen to oneself than undesirable events. Such biases are important for mental health and may extend to other individuals or social groups (social optimism biases). However, little is known about whether social optimism biases relate to brain structure. Using sparse canonical correlation analysis, we associated cortical thickness (assessed by magnetic resonance imaging) with measures of social and personal optimism bias, trait optimism and related concepts. We identified a defensive self-enhancement dimension that associated significantly and reliably with the cortical thickness of the insula and inferior frontal cortex. This self-enhancement dimension included unfavorable biases toward unpopular out-groups and indicators of personal optimism and pessimism. A shared biological substrate underlying future expectancies that subserves the promotion of the self and the denigration of unpopular out-groups may render society-wide efforts to counteract stereotyping particularly difficult: such efforts may hinder the establishment of adaptive personal optimism biases.

Prediction of Dangerous Driving Behavior Based on Vehicle Motion State and Passenger Feeling Using Cloud Model and Elman Neural Network

Dangerous driving behavior is the leading factor of road traffic accidents; therefore, how to predict dangerous driving behavior quickly, accurately, and robustly has been an active research topic of traffic safety management in the past decades. Previous works are focused on learning the driving characteristic of drivers or depended on different sensors to estimate vehicle state. In this paper, we propose a new method for dangerous driving behavior prediction by using a hybrid model consisting of cloud model and Elman neural network (CM-ENN) based on vehicle motion state estimation and passenger’s subjective feeling scores, which is more intuitive in perceiving potential dangerous driving behaviors. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we have developed a data acquisition system of driving motion states and apply it to real traffic scenarios in ShenZhen city of China. Experimental results demonstrate that the new method is more accurate and robust than classical methods based on common neural network.

Should I stay, or should I go? Consumers' perceived risk and intention to visit restaurants during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

This study aimed to verify how consumers’ intention to visit restaurants during the pandemic is affected by consumers’ risk perception and different types of trust. The sample was composed of 546 consumers from 89 different cities in Brazil. An adapted 43 items questionnaire with 5-point scales was administered, and analyzed using structural equation modeling. The results indicate that consumers' trust in a restaurant and brand, fair price, solidarity with the restaurant sector, disease denial, and health surveillance trust predict intention to visit a restaurant during the COVID-19 pandemic. Age has significant moderated effects, reducing disease denial effects. The trust in restaurants and brands was the factor with the largest effect size. In a multigroup analysis, it was found that solidarity with the sector does not affect the intention to visit restaurants for consumers without formal work. It is discussed the implications of an increased consumers' risk perception, directly affecting their intentions. Special attention to consumers’ trust and fair price perception is fundamental, given consumers’ solidary inclination toward helping the restaurant sector. These aspects must be recognized by restaurant owners and managers to be improved and be used to attract consumers.

Actor-observer asymmetry in perceptions of parole board release decisions

In the current study, the actor-observer effect is tested with both mock parole board members and the public evaluating the responsibility of parole board members for a decision resulting in a parolee reoffending and committing a murder. Participants (two samples with a combined N = 1317) were randomly assigned to act as a mock parole board member and make a decision (which ended in the parolee reoffending) or as a member of the public who read a story about the same parole decision and outcome. Findings suggest that the traditional actor-observer asymmetry emerged across blame and responsibility concepts, emotion and moral judgments. Overall, the public held harsher judgments than the mock parole board members. Implications regarding self-enhancement, methodology and attribution theory are discussed.

The development and validation of video-based measures of drivers' following distance and gap acceptance behaviours

The distance at which drivers follow other vehicles has been found to be linked to crash risk. Tailgating (i.e. driving at an unsafe following distance) is both endemic and a leading cause of rear-end crashes. Similarly, drivers' decisions about when to merge with a stream of traffic are likely to influence crash risk. Consistent with this, it has been shown that crashes are more common at intersections where drivers more frequently have to slow for vehicles pulling out into insufficient gaps. Therefore, the development of reliable and valid measures of both of these driving behaviours would facilitate further crash prevention research. Given the problems associated with assessing these behaviours during real driving, we developed new video-based measures. In our new following distance measure, participants view videos shot from the perspective of a driver who is following another vehicle at a range of distances across a variety of traffic environments. On each trial, participants report their own minimum comfortable following distance relative to the following distance depicted in the video. In our new test of gap acceptance behaviour, participants view a series of video clips and indicate when they would pull out into the approaching stream of traffic shown in each clip. The two new measures each yielded reliable data, and we found that young drivers made riskier choices than older drivers for both following distance and gap acceptance. These age-related differences are consistent with those found in observational studies of real driving, supporting the proposal that the new tests could potentially be used as proxies for these crash-related driving behaviours in both lab-based research and large-scale online studies.

The role of control in risk perception on rural roads

Risk perception plays an important role in driver behaviour, particularly for speed choice. Risk perception studies use a range of techniques from on-road data collection to ratings of still photos, however participants' ratings differ depending on the study methodology, possibly due to their perception of control. To explore this we conducted a multiple methods study to investigate drivers' perceptions of risk on rural roads. One group of participants drove (Drivers, n = 13) a 180 km route along rural roads (accompanied by a research assistant) and provided verbal risk ratings at thirteen locations of interest. A second group (Passengers, n = 10) provided ratings at the same points when travelling as a passenger in a vehicle (driven by a research assistant). The third group (Observers, n = 14) were shown videos of the same rural roads (filmed from the drivers' perspective) and also provided risk ratings at the same locations. A week later participants were invited to the laboratory to review the video footage and comment on factors that contributed to the risk ratings. Overall, the Observers gave the highest risk ratings and Drivers the lowest. The Observers also provided twice the number of comments to justify their risk rating compared to the other two groups. The results suggest that control, and on-road experience play a significant role in how perceptions of driving risk are formed and the degree of risk experienced. These findings also bring into question the accuracy of using video-based tasks to assess drivers' risk perception (and speed choice), particularly if the findings are used to inform on-road safety interventions.

Who uses a mobile phone while driving for food delivery? The role of personality, risk perception, and driving self-efficacy

INTRODUCTION

The existing literature on mobile phone use while driving (MPUWD) mainly targets the participants from general population and the young adults, however, few studies pay attention to this form of distracted driving with samples in professional contexts. The present study aims to bridge the gap by identifying the extent of and the motives behind making use of mobile phones while driving for food dispatch among deliveryman.

METHOD

The snowball sampling was used to collect the data (N = 317) through a self-reported questionnaire, including demographics, personality traits, risk perception, driving self-efficacy, and mobile phone use while driving.

RESULTS

Descriptive analysis for the assessed MPUWD behaviors showed that 96.3% (N = 315) of food deliveryman undertook the MPUWD behaviors, though disproportionate distribution among these behaviors existed. Structural equation modeling analysis displayed that psychoticism and driving self-efficacy directly predicted the MPUWD behaviors. The mediating role of driving self-efficacy was verified with the findings that driving self-efficacy completely mediated the relationships that between risk perception and MPUWD behaviors and that between extraversion and MPUWD behaviors, as well as partially mediated the correlation between psychoticism and MPUWD behaviors.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study confirms the prevalence of MPUWD behaviors among food deliveryman. The SEM estimates and bootstrap estimates suggest that personality traits and perceived risk perception per se display limited predicting utility to MPUWD behaviors among food deliveryman, whereas driving self-efficacy and the proposed predictors together well illustrate the assessed MPUWD behaviors among food deliveryman. Practical Applications: These findings imply that developing and implementing intervention efforts in a concerted way would curb these behaviors effectively.

Values-in-action that support safe production

INTRODUCTION

Safe production is a sustainable approach to managing an organization's operations that considers the interests of both management and workers as salient stakeholders in a productive and safe workplace. A supportive culture enacts values versus only espousing them. These values-in-action are beliefs shared by both management and workers that align what should happen in performing organizational routines to be safe and be productive with what actually is done. However, the operations and safety management literature provides little guidance on which values-in-action are most important to safe production and how they work together to create a supportive culture.

METHOD

The researchers conducted exploratory case studies in 10 manufacturing plants of 9 firms. The researchers compared plant managers' top-down perspectives on safety in the performance of work and workers' bottom-up experiences of the safety climate and their rates of injury on the job. Each case study used data collected from interviewing multiple managers, the administration of a climate survey to workers and the examination of the plant's injury rates over time as reported to its third party health and safety insurer.

RESULTS

The researchers found that plants with four values-in-action -a commitment to safety, discipline, prevention and participation-were capable of safe production, while plants without those values were neither safe nor productive. Where culture and climate aligned lower rates of injury were experienced.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

The four value-in-actions must all be present and work together in a self-reinforcing manner to engage workers and managers in achieving safe production. Practical application: Managers of both operations and safety functions do impact safety outcomes such as reducing injuries by creating a participatory environment that encourage learning that improves both safety and production routines.

Individual differences in higher-level cognitive abilities do not predict overconfidence in complex task performance

Even when people perform tasks poorly, they often report unrealistically positive estimates of their own abilities in these situations. To better understand the origins of such overconfidence, we investigated whether it could be predicted by individual differences in working memory, attentional control, and self-reported trait impulsivity. Overconfidence was estimated by contrasting objective and subjective measures of situation awareness (the ability to perceive and understand task-relevant information in the environment), acquired during a challenging air traffic control simulation. We found no significant relationships between overconfidence and either working memory or attentional control. However, increased impulsivity significantly predicted greater overconfidence. In addition, overall levels of overconfidence were lower in our complex task than in previous studies that used less-complex lab-based tasks. Our results suggest that overconfidence may not be linked to high-level cognitive abilities, but that dynamic tasks with frequent opportunities for performance feedback may reduce misconceptions about personal performance.

Sense of Agency as a predictor of risk-taking

Previous research suggests that people tend to underestimate risks that are under their control. It is however unclear which processes underlie the control-risk relation. The present research investigated the feeling of causal control known as agency as a predictor of risk-perception and risk-taking. In two studies, participants performed a risk-taking task in which their actions either caused immediate or delayed outcomes - a validated manipulation of agency. Results show that when outcomes were shown immediately rather than delayed, and respectively, when agency was high rather than low, participants reported a higher ability to control risks (Study 1). Furthermore, they were also more inclined to take risks (Study 2). The present research, the first to apply principles that emerged from fundamental research on agency into the societally relevant domain of risk-related perception and behavior, therefore showed a clear relation between agency and risk.

Threat appeals in health communication: messages that elicit fear and enhance perceived efficacy positively impact on young male drivers

Background

Health communications often present graphic, threat-based representations of the potential consequences of health-risk behaviours. These ‘threat appeals’ feature prominently in public health campaigns, but their use is controversial, with studies investigating their efficacy reporting inconsistent, and often negative, findings. This research examined the impact of a threat-based road safety advertisement on the driving behaviour of young male drivers.

Methods

To address limitations of previous research, we first identified a road safety advertisement that objectively and subjectively elicited fear using physiological and subjective measures. Study 1 (n = 62) examined the effect of this advertisement, combined with a manipulation designed to increase perceived efficacy, on speed choice. Study 2 (n = 81) investigated whether a state emotion, anger, impacts on the effectiveness of the advertisement in changing four distinct driving behaviours. Both studies examined short-term effects only.

Results

Study 1 findings indicated that a high threat message, when combined with high perceived efficacy, can lead to a decrease in speed choice. Study 2 results suggested that increased levels of state anger may counteract the potential value of combining fear-arousing threats and efficacy-building messages.

Conclusions

Findings suggest that threat-based road safety communications that target affective (fear) and cognitive (perceived efficacy) mechanisms can positively affect driving behaviours. State emotions, such as anger, may negatively impact on the effectiveness of the message. Taken together, these findings provide additional support for the use of efficacy-building messages in threat-based communications, but highlight the need for further research into the complex array of affective influences on driving.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3227-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An experimental study of factors associated with driver frustration and overtaking intentions

This study examined directly the impact of various factors associated with driving on 'A-class' roads in the United Kingdom (specifically length of platoon, proportion of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), speed and opportunities for overtaking) on self-reported frustration and overtaking intentions. The impact of situational variables (being under time pressure, and time behind a slower moving platoon) were also examined, as was the association between frustration and self-reported overtaking intentions. 183 members of the public from the areas around Perth and Inverness, Scotland took part in the study. Participants viewed simulated 'driver's viewpoint' clips representing all the combinations of the experimental variables (except time pressure, which was a between-groups variable, and time behind platoon, which was examined separately in four specific clips). After each clip, participants responded on a paper questionnaire as to the level of frustration they would feel for a given clip, and the likelihood that at some point during the clip they would have attempted an overtake manoeuvre. The findings show that the links between traffic variables such as speed and platoon length, and behaviourally-relevant variables such as frustration and overtaking intentions, are not simple. Although there are broad and predictable effects of speed and platoon length (lower speeds and longer platoons leading to greater frustration) these are mediated by other variables, and it is not always the case that more frustration leads to more intention to overtake. Analysis of driver attitudes identified three clusters (low, medium and high risk drivers) and suggests that higher risk drivers' levels of frustration are more affected by situational changes than those of lower risk drivers.

The existence of optimistic bias about foodborne disease by food handlers and its association with training participation and food safety performance

A positive outlook regarding future events, in which individuals find themselves less likely than others to experience negative events, is called optimistic bias (OB). The aims of this study were: 1. To ascertain the existence and measure the OB phenomenon in food handlers in relation to foodborne disease and 2. To examine the association of OB with food handlers' risk perceptions, knowledge, attitudes, self-reported practices, training participation, food safety performance of the establishments and microbiological analysis. This study examined different food businesses in Santos city, in Brazil, as follows: street food kiosks, beach kiosks, restaurants, hospitals, and school meal services. The food handlers indicated their own risk and their peers' risk of causing a foodborne disease. Responses were given on a 10cm linear scale anchored with descriptors of intensity ranging from "none" to "very high". The difference between these risk perceptions characterized a score of tendency of an OB. A structured questionnaire was administered to evaluate knowledge, attitudes, self-reported practices and food safety performance. A total of 183 food handlers participated in the study. Microbiological analyses were conducted with ready-to-eat foods/preparations from selected sites. The food handlers perceived themselves as less likely than their peers to cause a foodborne disease (p<0.001), demonstrating the tendency of an OB. Food handlers who had undergone some training presented lower scores for the perceived risk of themselves being responsible for a foodborne disease and higher knowledge than did untrained individuals. Hospitals, schools and restaurants performed better than street food group considering food safety performance. However, microorganisms were found in food samples from hospitals. This result may be motivated by OB and other subjective factors. Apparently, this positive outlook of food handlers is associated with training participation, lethality perception and correlating positively with age. No association was found between OB scores and knowledge, attitudes and self-reported practices. Since OB may lead individuals to adopt inappropriate or dangerous behavior, strategies for debiasing food handlers should be designed.

Taking a Leap of Faith

Recent psychological models of religion suggest that religious beliefs provide a form of psychological control. Independently, other research has found that an increase in psychological control can lead people to adopt riskier strategies. Hence, we hypothesized that activation of God concepts increases risk taking. In three studies, we found that God primes led to take greater risk taking as though participants were literally “taking a leap of faith.” In Study 2, we presented evidence that this effect could be mediated by increased psychological control. Although consistent with psychological models of religion, the findings also contradict some survey findings that religious people are less risk seeking. This inconsistency was addressed in Study 3 by looking at how religion, morality, and risk taking are related. Implications to a relational schema approach to study the effects of God primes are discussed.

Building Online Trust in a Culture of Confucianism

The success of e-commerce companies in a Confucian cultural context takes more than advanced IT and process design that have proven successful in Western countries. The example of eBay’s failure in China indicates that earning the trust of Chinese consumers is essential to success, yet the process of building that trust requires something different from that in the Western culture. This article attempts to build a theoretical model to explore the relationship between the Confucian culture and online trust. We introduce two new constructs, namely process flexibility and perceived control, as particularly important factors in online trust formation in the Chinese cultural context. A survey was conducted to test the proposed theoretical model. This study offers a new explanation for online trust formation in the Confucian context. The findings of this article can provide guidance for companies hoping to successfully navigate the Chinese online market in the future.

The impact of threat appeals on fear arousal and driver behavior: a meta-analysis of experimental research 1990-2011

The existing empirical research exploring the impact of threat appeals on driver behavior has reported inconsistent findings. In an effort to provide an up-to-date synthesis of the experimental findings, meta-analytic techniques were employed to examine the impact of threat-based messages on fear arousal and on lab-based indices of driving behavior. Experimental studies (k = 13, N = 3044), conducted between 1990 and 2011, were included in the analyses. The aims of the current analysis were (a) to examine whether or not the experimental manipulations had a significant impact on evoked fear, (b) to examine the impact of threat appeals on three distinct indices of driving, and (c) to identify moderators and mediators of the relationship between fear and driving outcomes. Large effects emerged for the level of fear evoked, with experimental groups reporting increased fear arousal in comparison to control groups (r = .64, n = 619, p<.01). The effect of threat appeals on driving outcomes, however, was not significant (r = .03, p = .17). This analysis of the experimental literature indicates that threat appeals can lead to increased fear arousal, but do not appear to have the desired impact on driving behavior. We discuss these findings in the context of threat-based road safety campaigns and future directions for experimental research in this area.

Cyclists and drivers in road interactions: A comparison of perceived crash risk

Today's increase in the number of cyclists has triggered a change in the interactions to be handled by road users. However, few studies have investigated crash risk perceived by cyclists interacting with other users, and few have compared cyclists' and drivers' perceptions of crash risk in bike-car interactions, the most dangerous situation for cyclists. Our aims here are to study perceived crash risk (no matter the seriousness of the crash) in six common road situations during which cyclist crashes are frequent and also to study cyclists' and drivers' perceived risk in bike-car interactions, in comparison to other interaction types (cyclist vs. cyclist and driver vs. driver). We predicted that perceived risk of being involved in a crash during a particular interaction would be greater when in interaction with a car than with a bike, and that drivers would perceive more risk than cyclists would. We also predicted that perceived risk would decrease with drivers' and cyclists' experience of their transportation mode and their perceived control over the interaction situation. We ran an online survey on two samples, experienced cyclists (N=336) and non-cyclist car drivers (N=92). Participants evaluated their personal risk - as cyclists or as drivers - of being involved in a road crash if they were in an interaction with a bike or a car for each of six risky road situations. Experience was measured in terms of years of vehicle driving and driven km; perceived control was measured in terms of perceived skill and responsibility for the risky behavior. The results validated our hypotheses: perceived risk was higher for car drivers than for cyclists and for interacting with a car than with a bike. The implications of these results for interventions to improve road safety for both cyclists and car drivers are discussed.

Reports of wins and risk taking: an investigation of the mediating effect of the illusion of control

Two experiments examined the relationships between the knowledge that another person has won in a gamble, the illusion of control and risk taking. Participants played a computer-simulated French roulette game individually. Before playing, some participants learnt that another person won a large amount of money. Results from a first experiment (n = 24) validated a causal model where the knowledge of another person's win increased the illusion of control, measured with betting times, expectancy and self-reports on scales, which in turn encourages risk taking. In the second experiment (n = 36), some participants were told the previous player acknowledged the win to be fortuitous. The suppression of the belief that the previous winner had himself exerted control over the outcome resulted in lower rates of risk-taking behaviors. This suggests that it was not the knowledge of another person's win in itself that increased risk taking, but rather, the belief that the other person had some control over the gamble's outcome. Theoretical implications for the study of social mechanisms involved in gambling behavior are discussed.

Psychological predictors of college students' cell phone use while driving

Despite the known risk, many people talk on a phone while driving. This study explored psychological predictors of cell phone use while driving. College students (final N=69) completed a survey and predicted their driving performance both with and without a simultaneous phone conversation. Their actual performance on a driving simulator was then assessed. Cell phone use reduced performance on the simulation task. Further, perceiving oneself as good at compensating for driving distractions, overestimating one's performance on the driving simulator, and high illusory control predicted more frequent cell phone use while driving in everyday life. Finally, those who talked more frequently on a phone while driving had poorer real-world driving records. These findings suggest illusory control and positive illusions partly explain driver's decisions of whether to use cell phones while driving.

Workers' mental models of chemical exposure in the workplace

The objective of this study was to examine workers' mental interpretation models developed in response to occupational chemical exposure. The study was performed in six companies within the reinforced plastics industry in northern Sweden, in which styrene was used; 32 workers participated in the study. Each worker performed between four and seven exposure measurements. Before receiving each result of the second to seventh measurements, the workers were asked to predict the level of their next exposure measurement. Their predictions were evaluated with respect to two judgmental principles: coherence (that the predictions are based on logical decision rules, that is, the mean value of the prior exposure levels); and correspondence (the predictions have high empirical accuracy) by calculating the mean absolute percent forcast error (MAPE). The coherence principle was tested by comparing each of the workers' predictions with the mean, median, and last exposure level (last value) of the prior measurements. The correspondence principle was tested by comparing the worker's prediction with the outcome of the measurement. The coherence principle was found to be the best descriptor of the workers' predictions and the median model had the best fit. The mean model had a similar but significantly poorer fit (MAPE values of 29 and 31, respectively). The correspondence model had a poor fit with a MAPE of 54. The workers' predictions were generally lower than their average exposures. We conclude that the workers' interpretation model can be best described by a coherence model rather than by a correspondence model.

What happens next? Predicting other road users' behaviour as a function of driving experience and processing time

Hazard perception is one of the most important facets of driving and if the appropriate diagnostic tool is used it can discriminate between novice and experienced drivers. In this study video clips of actual driving scenarios were shown to novice and experienced drivers. The clips were stopped just prior to hazard onset and either the screen went black or the final still image stayed on the screen. Participants were then asked five questions about what happened next. This variant of the hazard perception test allowed the influence of processing time to be included and the level of situation awareness to be measured. Experienced drivers significantly anticipated more correct hazardous outcomes than novice drivers when the screen went black. Novice drivers benefited from the extra processing time afforded by the image remaining on the screen and significantly anticipated more hazards when the image remained on the screen than when it went black. The findings indicate that when processing time is manipulated, hazard perception accuracy reveals experiential differences. These differences are discussed with reference to hazard perception and situation awareness. This research informs the current controversy over whether hazard perception is a good diagnostic tool for driving performance. It identifies potential confounds in previous work and demonstrates that experiential differences can be found if the appropriate tests are used. Further, it suggests improvements for new hazard perception tests.

Active involvement, not illusory control, increases risk taking in a gambling game

The research considers the influence of choice (the possibility for the player to choose a gamble or another) and involvement (the physical interaction with the gambling device) on risk taking in gambling games and whether this influence is mediated by illusory control over the outcome of the gamble. Results of a laboratory experiment (n = 100) show that (a) although choice does increase illusory control, this influence does not translate in increased risk taking, and (b) whilst involvement does increase risk taking, this effect is not mediated by illusory control. These results are discussed in relation to problem gambling, beliefs in the deployability of personal luck, and arousal approaches to risk taking.

Institutional trust as a determinant of anxiety during the SARS crisis in Hong Kong

The SARS crisis of 2003 in Hong Kong generated widespread public fear and escalated the efforts of government and medical institutions for infection control. As such, the role of the government and medical institution in preventing public fear and anxiety became prominent. As hypothesized, trust in the institutions is especially relevant to public fear and anxiety during the epidemic crisis. For testing hypotheses involving the role of institutional trust, a telephone survey during the crisis in April 2003 and another telephone survey after the crisis in June 2003 drew data from 9,402 Hong Kong adults for analysis. Results indicate the significant negative effects of trust in the government and trust in the medical institution on anxiety. Supporting the aforementioned hypothesis the effect of institutional trust in the government was significantly more negative on anxiety during the crisis than its aftermath. Hence, the government and medical institution are particularly responsible for anxiety reduction during the crisis.

Assessment of nutritional knowledge in female athletes susceptible to the Female Athlete Triad syndrome

Background

The study aimed to i) assess nutritional knowledge in female athletes susceptible to the Female Athlete Triad (FAT) syndrome and to compare with controls; and ii) to compare nutritional knowledge of those who were classified as being 'at risk' for developing FAT syndrome and those who are 'not at risk'.

Methods

In this study, participants completed General Nutritional Knowledge Questionnaire (GNKQ), the Eating Attitude Test (EAT-26) and survey measures of training/physical activity, menstrual and skeletal injury history. The sample consisted of 48 regional endurance athletes, 11 trampoline gymnasts and 32 untrained controls. Based on proxy measures for the FAT components, participants were classified being 'at risk' or 'not at risk' and nutrition knowledge scores were compared for the two groups. Formal education related to nutrition was considered.

Results

A considerably higher percentage of athletes were classified 'at risk' of menstrual dysfunction than controls (28.8% and 9.4%, respectively) and a higher percentage scored at or above the cutoff value of 20 on the EAT-26 test among athletes than controls (10.2% and 3.1%, respectively). 8.5% of athletes were classified 'at risk' for bone mineral density in contrast to none from the control group. Nutrition knowledge and eating attitude appeared to be independent for both athletes and controls. GNKQ scores of athletes were higher than controls but the differences between the knowledge of 'at risk' and 'not at risk' athletes and controls were inconsequential. Formal education in nutrition or closely related subjects does not have an influence on nutrition knowledge or on being classified as 'at risk' or 'not at risk'.

Conclusion

The lack of difference in nutrition knowledge between 'at risk' and 'not at risk' athletes suggests that lack of information is not accountable for restricted eating associated with the Female Athlete Triad.

The role of risk avoidance in anxiety

Various forms of disinhibitory psychopathology (e.g., substance use disorder) are characterized by a tendency to make overly risky decisions. The current paper reports on data suggesting that, in contrast, anxiety is associated with an exaggerated tendency to engage in risk-avoidant decision making. In a nonclinical sample of university students, trait anxiety was associated with relatively low willingness to take risks, across a range of behavioral contexts. Trait anxiety was also associated with pessimistic risk appraisals (e.g., heightened perceptions of the likelihood and severity of negative outcomes). Furthermore, these associations were apparent while controlling for depression. Additional findings suggest that heightened perceptions of the severity of negative outcomes might mediate the link between trait anxiety and risk avoidance. This research has implications for understanding the role basic risk decision-making processes may play in the nature and treatment of anxiety.

Does anticipation training affect drivers' risk taking?

Skill and risk taking are argued to be independent and to require different remedial programs. However, it is possible to contend that skill-based training could be associated with an increase, a decrease, or no change in risk-taking behavior. In 3 experiments, the authors examined the influence of a skill-based training program (hazard perception) on the risk-taking behavior of car drivers (using video-based driving simulations). Experiment 1 demonstrated a decrease in risk taking for novice drivers. In Experiment 2, the authors examined the possibilities that the skills training might operate through either a nonspecific reduction in risk taking or a specific improvement in hazard perception. Evidence supported the latter. These findings were replicated in a more ecological context in Experiment 3, which compared advanced and nonadvanced police drivers.

Motorcycle Accident Risk Could Be Inflated by a Time to Arrival Illusion

PURPOSE

Drivers adopt smaller safety margins when pulling out in front of motorcycles compared with cars. This could partly account for why the most common motorcycle/car accident involves a car violating a motorcyclist's right of way. One possible explanation is the size-arrival effect in which smaller objects are perceived to arrive later than larger objects. That is, drivers may estimate the time to arrival of motorcycles to be later than cars because motorcycles are smaller.

METHODS

We investigated arrival time judgments using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Drivers recruited from the student population (n = 28 and n = 33) saw video footage of oncoming vehicles and had to press a response button when they judged that vehicles would reach them.

RESULTS

In experiment 1, the time to arrival of motorcycles was estimated to be significantly later than larger vehicles (a car and a van) for different approach speeds and viewing times. In experiment 2, we investigated an alternative explanation to the size-arrival effect: that the smaller size of motorcycles places them below the threshold needed for observers to make an accurate time to arrival judgment using tau. We found that the motorcycle/car difference in arrival time estimates was maintained for very short occlusion durations when tau could be estimated for both motorcycles and cars.

CONCLUSIONS

Results are consistent with the size-arrival effect and are inconsistent with the tau threshold explanation. Drivers estimate motorcycles will reach them later than cars across a range of conditions. This could have safety implications.

A behavioral comparison between motorcyclists and a matched group of non-motorcycling car drivers: factors influencing accident risk

Motorcyclists and a matched group of non-motorcycling car drivers were assessed on behavioral measures known to relate to accident involvement. Using a range of laboratory measures, we found that motorcyclists chose faster speeds than the car drivers, overtook more, and pulled into smaller gaps in traffic, though they did not travel any closer to the vehicle in front. The speed and following distance findings were replicated by two further studies involving unobtrusive roadside observation. We suggest that the increased risk-taking behavior of motorcyclists was only likely to account for a small proportion of the difference in accident risk between motorcyclists and car drivers. A second group of motorcyclists was asked to complete the simulator tests as if driving a car. They did not differ from the non-motorcycling car drivers on the risk-taking measures but were better at hazard perception. There were also no differences for sensation seeking, mild social deviance, and attitudes to riding/driving, indicating that the risk-taking tendencies of motorcyclists did not transfer beyond motorcycling, while their hazard perception skill did.

Effects of alcohol on risk-taking during simulated driving

The effect of alcohol on judgement or conscious risk-taking may increase the likelihood of an automobile accident. This study examined the direct effects of penalty severity and alcohol on risk-taking in a novel simulated-driving lane-choice task. Thirteen male social drinkers received alcohol (0.3 g/kg, 0.5 g/kg, 0.8 g/kg) or placebo during each of four test sessions in a randomized, within subject design. In repeated trials, subjects selected, then drove through a cone-defined lane. Contingent upon performance, points were added (+ 5 for the narrower lane, + 3 for the wider lane) and taken away (- 1, - 3, or - 5 points per hit cone) after each trial. Risk-taking was defined as a selection of the narrower-width lane. The frequency of risk-taking decreased as the penalty increased. The 0.5 g/kg dose, compared to other alcohol doses or placebo, significantly increased risk-taking in the high-risk (5-point penalty) condition. This finding suggests that breath alcohol concentrations within current legal standards can alter a driver's decision-making such that the willingness to enter a high-risk situation is increased.

User-controlled photographic animations, photograph-based questions, and questionnaires: three Internet-based instruments for measuring drivers' risk-taking behavior

The Internet has been exploited successfully in the past as a medium for behavioral research. This paper presents a series of studies designed to assess Internet-based measures of drivers' risk-taking behavior. First, we compared responses from an Internet sample with a traditional pencil-and-paper sample using established questionnaire measures of risk taking. No significant differences were found. Second, we assessed the validity of new Internet-based instruments, involving photographs and photographic animations, that measured speed, gap acceptance, and passing. Responses were found to reflect known demographic patterns of actual behavior to some degree. Also, a roadside survey of speeds was carried out at the locations depicted in the photographic measure of speeding and, with certain exceptions, differences between the two appeared to be constant. Third, a between-subject experimental manipulation involving the photographic animation measure of gap acceptance was used to demonstrate one application of these techniques.