Routes to low mortality in poor countries revisited

Cardiovascular disease burden in the Middle East and North Africa region

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally, including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. However, limited research has been conducted on the burden of CVD in this region. Our study aims to investigate the burden of CVD and related risk factors in the MENA.

METHODS

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 to examine CVD prevalence in 21 MENA countries. Prevalence and mortality were analyzed using Bayesian regression tools, demographic methods, and mortality-to-incidence ratios. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated, and risk factors were evaluated under the GBD's comparative risk assessment framework.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, CVD raw accounts in the MENA increased by 140.9%, while age standardized prevalence slightly decreased (-1.3%). CVD raw mortality counts rose by 78.3%, but age standardized death rates fell by 28%. Ischemic heart disease remained the most prevalent condition, with higher rates in men, while women had higher rates of CVA. Age standardized DALYs decreased by 32.54%. DALY rates varied across countries and were consistently higher in males. Leading risk factors included hypertension, high LDL-C, dietary risks, and elevated BMI.  The countries with the three highest DALYs in 2019 were Afghanistan, Egypt, and Yemen.

CONCLUSIONS

While strides have been made in lessening the CVD burden in the MENA region, the toll on mortality and morbidity, particularly from ischemic heart disease, remains significant. Country-specific variations call for tailored interventions addressing socio-economic factors, healthcare infrastructure, and political stability.

Estimating the effect of socio-economic factors on infant mortality rates in Latin America between 2000 and 2019: a panel data analysis

OBJECTIVES

Infant mortality is a crucial indicator of socio-economic development, reflecting the conditions in which children are born and raised. Despite notable reductions in Latin America, infant mortality rates remain relatively high compared to other regions worldwide. By understanding the socio-economic factors that influence infant mortality, we not only uncover immediate causes of infant deaths but also shed light on broader socio-economic and healthcare disparities contributing to the burden of disease. This study analyzes the impact of socio-economic factors on infant mortality rates in Latin America from 2000 to 2019, estimating the speed and magnitude of the response of infant mortality rates to changes in specific socio-economic factors.

STUDY DESIGN

Longitudinal panel study.

METHODS

Panel data regression models were used to examine the influence of specific socio-economic factors on infant mortality rates in Latin America. Additionally, impulse response functions estimated by local projections were used to estimate the speed and magnitude of the impact of socio-economic factors on infant mortality rates.

RESULTS

The results highlight the importance of factors such as healthcare expenditure, female literacy, public expenditures on education, maternal mortality, physician density, total fertility rate, and tuberculosis incidence as significant determinants of infant mortality rates in the region.

CONCLUSION

This study adds to the existing literature by offering empirical evidence on the association between these socio-economic factors and infant mortality in Latin America. It also provides a foundation for future research that investigates specific cases within Latin America and examines the variations of these socio-economic factors within those countries.

Spatial association and modelling of under-5 mortality in Thailand, 2020

Under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) is a key indicator of child health and overall development. In Thailand, despite significant steps made in child health, disparities in U5MR persist across different provinces. We examined various socio-economic variables, health service availability and environmental factors impacting U5MR in Thailand to model their influences through spatial analysis. Global and Local Moran's I statistics for spatial autocorrelation of U5MR and its related factors were used on secondary data from the Ministry of Public Health, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Statistical Office, and the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council in Thailand. The relationships between U5MR and these factors were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation, spatial lag model (SLM) and spatial error model (SEM). There were significant spatial disparities in U5MR across Thailand. Factors such as low birth weight, unemployment rate, and proportion of land use for agricultural purposes exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation, directly influencing U5MR, while average years of education, community organizations, number of beds for inpatients per 1,000 population, and exclusive breastfeeding practices acted as protective factors against U5MR (R2 of SEM = 0.588).The findings underscore the need for comprehensive, multi-sectoral strategies to address the U5MR disparities in Thailand. Policy interventions should consider improving socioeconomic conditions, healthcare quality, health accessibility, and environmental health in high U5M areas. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the spatial distribution of U5MR and its associated factors, which highlights the need for tailored and localized health policies and interventions.

Revisiting the Impact of Clean Water and Improved Sanitation on Child Mortality: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Using Demographic and Health Surveys, this study examined the impact of clean water and improved sanitation on child morality in five South Asian countries. South Asia is the region with the second most public health crises due to the utilization of unsafe water and sanitation, only second to Sub-Saharan Africa. Logistic regression models suggest that access to improved water and sanitation is significantly associated with a lower probability of child mortality, especially during the post-neonatal period. Although increased parental educational attainment and household wealth reduce the risk of child mortality, the combined household wealth and place of residence variable revealed the higher risk of mortality for children living in urban areas than rural areas. These findings emphasize the importance of the access to clean water and improved sanitation to reduce the number of children dying due to water-related diseases. Additionally, they suggest the need for additional research on the contribution of clean water and improved sanitation to achieve the global goals of child mortality reduction, especially the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Assessing mortality registration in Kerala: the MARANAM study

Complete or improving civil registration systems in sub-national areas in low- and middle-income countries provide several opportunities to better understand population health and its determinants. In this article, we provide an assessment of vital statistics in Kerala, India. Kerala is home to more than 33 million people and is a comparatively low-mortality context. We use individual-level vital registration data on more than 2.8 million deaths between 2006 and 2017 from the Kerala MARANAM (Mortality and Registration Assessment and Monitoring) Study. Comparing age-specific mortality rates from the Civil Registration System (CRS) to those from the Sample Registration System (SRS), we do not find evidence that the CRS underestimates mortality. Instead, CRS rates are smoother across ages and less variable across periods. In particular, the CRS records higher death rates than the SRS for ages, where mortality is usually low and for women. Using these data, we provide the first set of annual sex-specific life tables for any state in India. We find that life expectancy at birth was 77.9 years for women in 2017 and 71.4 years for men. Although Kerala is unique in many ways, our findings strengthen the case for more careful attention to mortality records within low- and middle-income countries, and for their better dissemination by government agencies.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00149-z.

Revisit the correlates of infant mortality in Bangladesh: findings from two nationwide cross-sectional studies

OBJECTIVE

The main objective of this study is to investigate how the direction and strength of the association between infant mortality and its predictors are changing over time in Bangladesh using a nationally representative sample for the period 2011-2014.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Data from two repeatedly cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) for the years 2011 and 2014 were used. A total of 7664 (with 312 infant death) and 7048 (with 264 infant death) complete cases, respectively, from BDHS 2011 and 2014 datasets were included in the study.

METHODS

Cox's proportional hazard model with robust standard error (SE) that adjusts for the complex survey design characteristics was implemented to assess how the risk factors associated with infant mortality change their paths.

RESULTS

Results reflected that administrative division remained as a potential risk factor of infant death for both periods. Household's socioeconomic status, father's employment status, age difference between parents turned out to be potential risk factors in 2014, though they did not show any significant association with infant death in the year 2011. In contrast to 2011, mothers' individual-level characteristics such as age at childbirth, education, media exposure, employment status did not remain as significant risk factors for infant death in 2014. Younger fathers increased the burden of death among infants of adolescent mothers. At higher order births, the burden of infant death significantly shifted from rural to urban areas. From the year 2011 to 2014, urban areas achieved socioeconomic equity in infant survival, while the extent of inequity was increased in rural areas.

CONCLUSION

Community-based programmes should be designed for urban mothers who are expecting higher order births. To eradicate the socioeconomic inequity in infant survival, the government should design strong and sustainable maternal and child healthcare facilities, especially for rural areas.

Prevalence of unintended pregnancy and its associated factors: Evidence from six south Asian countries

AIM

Unintended pregnancy is a significant public health concern in South Asian countries because of its negative association with the socioeconomic and health outcomes for both children and mothers. The present study aimed to explore the prevalence of unintended pregnancy and explore its determinants among women of reproductive age in six South Asian countries.

METHODS

Nationwide latest demography and health survey data from six South Asian countries, including Bangladesh (2014), Pakistan (2017-2018), Nepal (2016), Afghanistan (2015), Maldives (2016-2017) and India (2015-2016) were pooled for the present study. Multivariate analysis was performed to explore the association between unintended pregnancy and its associated factors.

RESULTS

Amongst the total women (n = 41,689), overall, 19.1% pregnancies were reported as unintended (ranging from 11.9% in India to 28.4% in Bangladesh). The logistic regression model showed that younger women (15-19 years) had 1.42 times higher chance of unintended pregnancies. The odds of unintended pregnancies was 1.24 times higher for poorest women and 1.19 times higher for poorer women. Further, urban women (aOR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.50-0.80), women having no children (aOR = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.09-0.12), smaller (≤4) family (aOR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.67-0.78), those who intent to use contraceptive (aOR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.60-0.86), currently living with partner (aOR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.81-0.99), first cohabitation in teenage (≤19 years) (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.78-0.92) were less likely to report unintended pregnancies.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has showed that women's age, wealth index, place of residence, number of children, family size, the intention of contraceptive use, living with a partner, and first cohabitation age are essential determinants of unintended pregnancy. These factors should be considered when trying to reduce unintended pregnancy in six South Asian countries. However, there is a need to improve health education, counselling, skills-building, sex education, modern contraceptive use and its access in this region. Intervention programs regarding reproductive health and policies are warranted to reduce rates of unintended pregnancy in South Asian countries.

The Profile of Non-Communicable Disease (NCD) research in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Analyzing the NCD burden, research outputs and international research collaboration

Objectives

Despite the rising risk factor exposure and non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality across the Middle East and the North African (MENA) region, public health policy responses have been slow and appear discordant with the social, economic and political circumstances in each country. Good health policy and outcomes are intimately linked to a research-active culture, particularly in NCD. In this study we present the results of a comprehensive analysis of NCD research with particular a focus on cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular disease in 10 key countries that represent a spectrum across MENA between 1991 and 2018.

Methods

The study uses a well validated bibliometric approach to undertake a quantitative analysis of research output in the ten leading countries in biomedical research in the MENA region on the basis of articles and reviews in the Web of Science database. We used filters for each of the three NCDs and biomedical research to identify relevant papers in the WoS. The countries selected for the analyses were based on the volume of research outputs during the period of analysis and stability, included Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

Results

A total of 495,108 biomedical papers were found in 12,341 journals for the ten MENA countries (here we consider Turkey in the context of MENA). For all three NCDs, Turkey's output is consistently the highest. Iran has had considerable growth in research output to occupy second place across all three NCDs. It appears that, relative to their wealth (measured by GDP), some MENA countries, particularly Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, are substantially under-investing in biomedical research. In terms of investment on particular NCDs, we note the relatively greater commitment on cancer research compared with diabetes or cardiovascular disease in most MENA countries, despite cardiovascular disease causing the greatest health-related burden. When considering the citation impact of research outputs, there have been marked rises in citation scores in Qatar, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates and Oman. However, Turkey, which has the largest biomedical research output in the Middle East has the lowest citation scores overall. The level of intra-regional collaboration in NCD research is highly variable. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the dominant research collaborators across the MENA region. However, Turkey and Iran, which are amongst the leading research-active countries in the area, show little evidence of collaboration. With respect to international collaboration, the United States and United Kingdom are the dominant research partners across the region followed by Germany and France.

Conclusion

The increase in research activity in NCDs across the MENA region countries during the time period of analysis may signal both an increasing focus on NCDs which reflects general global trends, and greater investment in research in some countries. However, there are several risks to the sustainability of these improvements that have been identified in particular countries within the region. For example, a lack of suitably trained researchers, low political commitment and poor financial support, and minimal international collaboration which is essential for wider global impact.

Mother's social status is associated with child health in a horticulturalist population

High social status is often associated with greater mating opportunities and fertility for men, but do women also obtain fitness benefits of high status? Greater resource access and child survivorship may be principal pathways through which social status increases women's fitness. Here, we examine whether peer-rankings of women's social status (indicated by political influence, project leadership, and respect) positively covaries with child nutritional status and health in a community of Amazonian horticulturalists. We find that maternal political influence is associated with improved child health outcomes in models adjusting for maternal age, parental height and weight, level of schooling, household income, family size, and number of kin in the community. Children of politically influential women have higher weight-for-age (B = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.12-0.54), height-for-age (B = 0.32; 95% CI = 0.10-0.54), and weight-for-height (B = 0.24; 95% CI = 0.04-0.44), and they are less likely to be diagnosed with common illnesses (OR = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.31-0.76). These results are consistent with women leveraging their social status to enhance reproductive success through improvements in child health. We discuss these results in light of parental investment theory and the implications for the evolution of female social status in humans.

Socioeconomic inequality in functional deficiencies and chronic diseases among older Indian adults: a sex-stratified cross-sectional decomposition analysis

OBJECTIVES

Older adults with adverse socioeconomic conditions suffer disproportionately from a poor quality of life. Stratified by sex, income-related inequalities have been decomposed for functional deficiencies and chronic diseases among older adults, and the degree to which social and demographic factors contribute to these inequalities was identified in this study.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

Data used for this study were retrieved from the WHO Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health Wave 1. A total of 3753 individuals (men: 1979, and women: 1774) aged ≥60 years were found eligible for the analysis.

MEASURES

Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) deficiency and presence of chronic diseases.

METHOD

The decomposition method proposed by Adam Wagstaff and his colleagues was used. The method allows estimating how determinants of health contribute proportionally to inequality in a health variable.

RESULTS

Compared with men, women were disproportionately affected by both functional deficiencies and chronic diseases. The relative contribution of sociodemographic factors to IADL deficiency was highest among those with poor economic status (38.5%), followed by those who were illiterate (22.5%), which collated to 61% of the total explained inequalities. Similarly, for chronic diseases, about 93% of the relative contribution was shared by those with poor economic status (42.3%), rural residence (30.5%) and illiteracy (20.3%). Significant difference in predictors was evident between men and women in IADL deficiency and chronic illness.

CONCLUSION

Pro-poor intervention strategies could be designed to address functional deficiencies and chronic diseases, with special attention to women.

Muslim and Hindu Women's public and private behaviors: gender, family, and communalized politics in India

Prior research on fundamentalist religious movements has focused attention on the complicated relationship among gender, family, and religion. Using data from a nationally representative survey of 30,000 Hindu and Muslim women, this study compares the daily public and private behaviors of women in India to examine how gender and family norms are shaped in the context of communalized identity politics. Building on the theoretical framework of "doing gender," we argue that because communal identities are expressed through externally visible behaviors, greater religious differences are expected in external markers of gendered behaviors and family norms. Results indicate that Muslim women are more likely to engage in veiling and less likely to venture outside the home for recreation and employment. However, religious differences are absent when attention is directed at private behaviors, such as household decision-making power, gender segregation within households, and discrimination against daughters. Results underscore the multidimensionality of gender.

An Empirical Evaluation of Devolving Administrative Control to Costa Rican Hospital and Clinic Directors

In the early 2000s, Costa Rica implemented comprehensive reforms of its health care system, including devolving administrative power from the central government to some providers that remain part of the national system. In this article, we evaluate how this aspect of the reform affected clinic efficiency and population health by analyzing administrative data on regional providers and mortality rates in local areas. We compare changes in outcomes across time between areas that signed performance contracts with the central government and received limited budgetary control to those that continued to be managed directly by the central government. We believe the reform created opportunities for providers to become more efficient and effective. Our results suggest that the reform significantly decreased costs without adversely affecting quality of care or population health.

Integrating the Demographic and Health Surveys, IPUMS-I, and TerraPopulus to Explore Mortality and Health Outcomes at the District Level in Ghana, Malawi, and Tanzania

In this paper, we first show how the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) can be integrated with other data sources to expand the types of variables available for analysis of population and health outcomes. Second, we demonstrate one particular example of such integration by modelling the social, physical, and built environment determinants of health outcomes at the district level in Ghana, Malawi, and Tanzania. To do so, we created district-level measures of a number of variables from the DHS, and then merged them with district-level data from the IPUMS, an environmental data set called TerraPopulus, and other sources. We find that it is feasible to combine the DHS with other data sources, and that many health and environment indicators are heterogeneous within countries, justifying further analysis at low levels of geography and suggesting benefits to using such techniques to design fine-grained programmatic interventions.

Migration selection, protection, and acculturation in health: a binational perspective on older adults

In this article, we test for four potential explanations of the Hispanic Health Paradox (HHP): the "salmon bias," emigration selection, and sociocultural protection originating in either destination or sending country. To reduce biases related to attrition by return migration typical of most U.S.-based surveys, we combine data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study in Mexico and the U.S. National Health Interview Survey to compare self-reported diabetes, hypertension, current smoking, obesity, and self-rated health among Mexican-born men ages 50 and older according to their previous U.S. migration experience, and U.S.-born Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites. We also use height, a measure of health during childhood, to bolster some of our tests. We find an immigrant advantage relative to non-Hispanic whites in hypertension and, to a lesser extent, obesity. We find evidence consistent with emigration selection and the salmon bias in height, hypertension, and self-rated health among immigrants with less than 15 years of experience in the United States; we do not find conclusive evidence consistent with sociocultural protection mechanisms. Finally, we illustrate that although ignoring return migrants when testing for the HHP and its mechanisms, as well as for the association between U.S. experience and health, exaggerates these associations, they are not fully driven by return migration-related attrition.

On the Role of Human Development in the Arab Spring

This essay traces the impact of human development on political change, focusing on the events of the Arab Spring. Over the past generation, the Arab world experienced rapid progress in human development outcomes, including declining child mortality, extended schooling and increasing stature of women. These development gains penetrated most Arab states and subpopulations. The pathway from human development to political mobilization rests on three interlinked propositions. First, basic human development led to a dramatic increase in population needs and expectations, creating new policy challenges and reducing public dependency on regimes. Second, human development and new information technologies created new opportunities for political protest. Finally, the collective realization of human development gains resulted in new values conducive to regime change. Each proposition builds on theories of human capital accumulation over the life course that isolate the human dimension of national development. I provide provisional support for these pathways through cross-regional comparison and evidence from specific populations and sub-populations. I highlight the need for new study designs and datasets that further test this model.

Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model

OBJECTIVE

To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system.

METHODS

The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes in proximate health risk factors. Forecasts are made to 2100 but findings are reported to 2060.

FINDINGS

The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases (CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in life expectancy will occur. Climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural yield will cause little excess childhood mortality from CDs, although other climate-health pathways were not explored. An optimistic scenario will produce 39 million fewer deaths in 2060 than a pessimistic one. Our forward linkage model suggests that an optimistic scenario would result in a 20% per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, despite one billion additional people. Southern Asia would experience the greatest relative mortality reduction and the largest resulting benefit in per capita GDP.

CONCLUSION

Long-term, integrated health forecasting helps us understand the links between health and other markers of human progress and offers powerful insight into key points of leverage for future improvements.

Comparing relative effects of education and economic resources on infant mortality in developing countries

Research on the social determinants of health has often considered education and economic resources as separate indicators of socioeconomic status. From a policy perspective, however, it is important to understand the relative strength of the effect of these social factors on health outcomes, particularly in developing countries. It is also important to examine not only the impact of education and economic resources of individuals, but also whether community and country levels of these factors affect health outcomes. This analysis uses multilevel regression models to assess the relative effects of education and economic resources on infant mortality at the family, community, and country level using data from demographic and Health Surveys in 43 low-and lower-middle-income countries. We find strong effects for both per capita gross national income and completed secondary education at the country level, but a greater impact of education within families and communities.