Yearning, learning, and conceding: reasons men and women change their childbearing intentions

Women's empowerment and intentions for additional children among reproductive-aged women: an analysis of demographic and health surveys in South Asia

BACKGROUND

A substantial body of evidence indicates an inverse correlation between the empowerment of women and fertility rates. Women's empowerment is a central theme in global development initiatives, necessitating a thorough and updated evaluation of the current evidence regarding its relationship with fertility. This study sought to examine the correlation between women's empowerment and fertility intentions-specifically, the desire for additional children among reproductive-aged women living with at least one child in South Asian nations, amidst a backdrop of declining fertility rates in the region.

METHODS

Analyses utilize the latest standard Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan for the period ranging from 2015 to 2022, which are nationally representative of women aged 15 to 49 years. To construct an effective empowerment indicator, we utilized the survey-based women's empowerment (SWPER) composite index established in the literature, which encompasses several dimensions, including decision-making participation, attitudes towards violence, and social independence. Multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship of interest.

RESULTS

Findings indicate that approximately one-third of South Asian women (31.1%) with at least one child expressed a desire for additional children, with the lowest percentage in Nepal (19.4%) and the highest in Afghanistan (42.3%). Higher empowerment among women in South Asia concerning attitudes toward violence (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74-0.88) and decision-making (AOR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83-0.94) correlated with a lower likelihood to desire additional children. However, women with medium (AOR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.51-1.70) and high (AOR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.44-1.74) empowerment levels regarding social independence were more inclined to seek an additional child compared to those with low empowerment in this domain.

CONCLUSIONS

This research revealed that specific dimensions of women's empowerment markedly reduce the desire for additional children in patriarchic and conservative South Asian settings. Strategies aimed at fertility regulation in South Asia must carefully assess and prioritize women's empowerment.

The fertility desires-intentions gap in the United States

Indicators of fertility goals are crucial demographic tools, but the availability of different constructs and misleading language in empirical research are a source of confusion, with fertility desires and intentions often used interchangeably. Fertility desires reflect an intrinsic wish to have children, whereas fertility intentions reflect an actual plan. I operationalize the fertility desires-intentions gap by considering that individuals might: (1) desire and intend; (2) desire but not intend; (3) not desire but intend; or (4) not desire or intend to have (more) children. Using nationally representative data for the United States and drawing from a life-course and gender perspective, I estimate aggregate-level, age-specific, and parity-specific indicators for both men and women and use regression models to identify predictors of the fertility desires-intentions gap. These analyses clarify the confusion generated by different measures, provide insights in light of the recent fertility decline, and reveal the consequences of considering (or not) sterility status in measures of fertility goals.

Societal pessimism and trajectories of fertility expectations among Dutch non-parents

This study utilizes prospective data from the Dutch Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences (LISS) panel to explore two research questions. First, can distinct trajectories of fertility expectations be identified among Dutch women and men in reproductive age (18 to 45/50) who do not have children? Second, do these trajectories differ in terms of self-reported societal pessimism at the start of that trajectory? We employed joint latent class analysis with Latent GOLD which allowed us to model the trajectories of fertility expectations while accounting for the fact that some of the respondents made the transition to parenthood during observation. The trajectories were estimated from entry into the panel until dropout, the end of the observation period (2022, or until reaching age 45 for women and 50 for men), or until the participant became a parent. For both women (n = 1,260) and men (n = 1,110), three similar classes emerged: 'committed to parenthood' (the largest class), 'uncertain' (24% of women and 22% of men), and 'early commitment to no expectation' (13.3% for women and 9.4% for men). In addition, a fourth class-'later arrivals to expectation of parenthood'-was identified among men. Bias-adjusted comparisons revealed significant differences only among women: those committed to parenthood exhibited the lowest levels of societal pessimism, while the 'uncertain' group reported the highest. These differences persisted even after adjusting for relevant control variables at the time when societal pessimism was captured, including depression levels, income satisfaction, partnership status, and education.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-025-00246-3.

Exploring machine learning algorithms for predicting fertility preferences among reproductive age women in Nigeria

Background

Fertility preferences refer to the number of children an individual would like to have, regardless of any obstacles that may stand in the way of fulfilling their aspirations. Despite the creation and application of numerous interventions, the overall fertility rate in West African nations, particularly Nigeria, is still high at 5.3% according to 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data. Hence, this study aimed to predict the fertility preferences of reproductive age women in Nigeria using state-of-the-art machine learning techniques.

Methods

Secondary data analysis from the recent 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey dataset was employed using feature selection to identify predictors to build machine learning models. Data was thoroughly assessed for missingness and weighted to draw valid inferences. Six machine learning algorithms, namely, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting, were employed on a total sample size of 37,581 in Python 3.9 version. Model performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Permutation and Gini techniques were used to identify the feature's importance.

Results

Random Forest achieved the highest performance with an accuracy of 92%, precision of 94%, recall of 91%, F1-score of 92%, and AUROC of 92%. Factors influencing fertility preferences were number of children, age group, and ideal family size. Region, contraception intention, ethnicity, and spousal occupation had a moderate influence. The woman's occupation, education, and marital status had a lower impact.

Conclusion

This study highlights the potential of machine learning for analyzing complex demographic data, revealing hidden factors associated with fertility preferences among Nigerian women. In conclusion, these findings can inform more effective family planning interventions, promoting sustainable development across Nigeria.

Assessing male and female clinicians' intentions for a third child in China: A cross-sectional survey analysis with gender-specific insights

Background

As fertility rates decline and population ageing intensifies, the conflict between career and childbearing continues to impact clinicians, especially women. Exploring gender differences in the fertility intentions of male and female clinicians could help with identifying barriers to childbearing, developing effective policies to support work-life balance, and addressing the gap in research on gender disparities in this field.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional survey among health care personnel in Chinese public hospitals. Through cluster sampling from highly active WeChat groups, we gathered 698 responses from clinicians to the third fertility intention questionnaire online. We then used descriptive statistics and χ2 tests for analysis.

Results

Men (28.28%) had higher intentions of having a third child than women (20.71%) (P = 0.013). In terms of reasons, female clinicians were more concerned than male clinicians about the impact on their career development (P = 0.002), difficulties in job hunting (P = 0.039), and physical injuries caused by multiple births (P < 0.001), and whether the elderly can help (P = 0.001). Conversely, men's apprehensions centred on economic factors such as real house costs (P < 0.001), policy support (P = 0.036), and wives' disagreement (P < 0.001). In discussing governmental interventions, men showed a higher level of interest in policies related to child care (P < 0.001), employment stability for women (P < 0.001), extended maternity leave (P < 0.001), and financial assistance than women (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Our findings show substantial gender-specific differences in third-child fertility intentions among clinicians. To address this, the government should consider divisions in family roles, future societal needs, and women's career development. Policies should focus on balancing work and family by offering affordable childcare, flexible parenting leave, financial incentives, and career support, ensuring childbirth does not negatively impact women's professional growth, and fostering gender equality in parenting.

The Effect of Parental Caregiving on the Fertility Expectations of Adult Children

Previous research has highlighted the positive impact of parents on their adult children's fertility plans through childcare, but the association between parental health and fertility expectations remains unclear. Thus, this paper offers a novel perspective on the issue of family support by investigating how caregiving responsibilities toward elderly parents affect adult children's decision to have a child. Using a long panel dataset for Australia, we examine whether adult children changed their fertility expectations after becoming care providers to their parents. To address issues of unobserved heterogeneity and selection into parenthood and caregiving, we employ generalized difference-in-differences models. Results show a 7% decrease in fertility expectations within two years of becoming a parental caregiver, with a stronger effect over time, consistent across genders and more pronounced for respondents with one child. These findings suggest that interventions aimed at reducing the caregiver burden could provide an opportunity to positively influence fertility levels.

Tomorrow’s parents? Exploring the fertility intentions of young adults in Hungary

In Hungary, where current fertility is below replacement, it is important to explore the fertility intentions of potential future parents. In our paper, we use a novel representative database to explore the future childbearing intentions of young adult Hungarians (18–29) and to estimate the potential effect of a wide range of demographic, socioeconomic and value-related independent variables. According to our results, fertility intentions are shaped by the individual’s economic status, current domicile, parental education, religiosity, parental separation, relationship status and positivity towards Hungary. Additionally, interaction models show that fertility intentions vary by age and gender: a critical period of late young adulthood is highlighted when stronger intentions notably decline for women. Finally, using subsamples, we examine the effect of climate anxiety and green behaviour. Results suggest that those who plan to have more children are more likely to behave in an environmentally conscious way.

How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China?

Ideal family sizes remain at or above two in most low-fertility settings, but sub-replacement fertility ideals have been reported for urban China. The presence of restrictive family planning policies has led to a debate as to whether such ideals are genuine. This study exploits the ending of the one-child policy and the beginning of a universal two-child policy in October 2015 to investigate whether relaxing the restrictions led to an increase in ideal family size. We apply difference-in-differences and individual-level fixed-effect models to longitudinal data from a near-nationwide survey. For married individuals aged 20-39, relaxing the restrictions from one to two children increased the mean ideal family size by around 0.2 and the proportion who desired two or more children by around 19 percentage points. Findings suggest that although reported ideal family sizes have been reduced by policy restrictions, sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China appear to be genuine.

Partnership trajectories preceding medically assisted reproduction

The number of people who undergo medically assisted reproduction (MAR) to conceive has increased considerably in recent decades. However, existing research into the demographics and the partnership histories of this growing subgroup is limited. Using unique data from Finnish population registers on nulliparous women born in Finland in 1971-77 (n = 21,129; ∼10 per cent of all women) who had undergone MAR treatment, we created longitudinal partnership histories from age 16 until first MAR treatment. We identified six typical partnership trajectories and used relative frequency sequence plots to investigate heterogeneity in partnership transitions within and between these groups. The majority of women (60.7 per cent) underwent MAR with their first partner, followed by women who underwent MAR in a second (21.5 per cent) or higher-order partnership (7.1 per cent), while 10.7 per cent underwent MAR without a partner. On average, women undergoing MAR were relatively young (with around half starting treatment before age 30) and were highly educated with high incomes.

Migration, Partner Selection, and Fertility in Germany: How Many Children are Born in Mixed Unions?

For the German context, we investigate whether the number of children ever born differs between mixed unions (exogamous unions between natives and migrants or migrant descendants) and endogamous unions (unions among co-ethnics). Our theoretical considerations are derived from assimilation theories, which view exogamous unions as indicators of assimilation processes, and the framework on migrant fertility. The migrant (or descendant) partner in an exogamous union may adapt to the majority group, both partners may adapt to each other, or both partners may constitute a selected group in their fertility preferences. However, due to the higher likelihood of conflicts within the partnership and of separation, exogamy may disrupt family formation processes and depress couples' fertility. Drawing on data from the GSOEP (1984-2020), we estimate generalized Poisson regressions. The results reveal that the number of children ever born is higher in exogamous unions than in endogamous native couples. This general pattern largely persists across migrant generations and regions of origin, but we identify gender differences. While fertility in exogamous unions of native women/migrant (descendant) men is not statistically different from fertility in native/native couples, unions of migrant (descendant) women/native men have more children, especially when controlling for socio-demographic confounders. Our results demonstrate that in the German context, exogamy does not lead to fertility disruptions, and is not straightforwardly associated with assimilation to the fertility of the majority group. Instead, differences in gendered partner choice patterns and life-course transitions may influence the number of children exogamous couples have.

A crisis in the life course? Pregnancy loss impacts fertility desires and intentions

BACKGROUND

An unintended spontaneous termination of a pregnancy can be a traumatic experience affecting the subsequent life course, but has received little attention in socio-demographic studies on fertility intentions or behavior. The theoretical background of our study draws on considerations from life course research, the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behavior framework.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates whether the experience of pregnancy loss changes the fertility desires and intentions of women in their subsequent life course.

METHODS

We use 11 waves of the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (pairfam) with 5197 women in total, of which 281 women (5.4%) reported a miscarriage. Data have been collected annually in Germany since 2008. We investigate four dependent variables capturing different indicators of the ideational dimension of fertility: Personal ideal number of children, realistic number of (additional) children, intention to have a(nother) child in the next two years and importance of having a(nother) child. We study the intrapersonal changes in these items among women after a pregnancy loss, applying linear fixed effect regression models. Controls include parity, age, partnership status, pregnancy status and the interaction of pregnancy loss with whether the woman already had children before the pregnancy loss.

RESULTS

We found that the importance of having a(nother) child and the intention to have a(nother) child in the next two years increase after a pregnancy loss. These patterns can only partially be explained by control variables. By contrast, an effect on the ideal number of children as well as the realistic number of children could not be found. The patterns varied, however, across age and stage in the life course, most importantly between mothers and childless women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that the effect of pregnancy loss on the subsequent life course varies across the indicators used and by duration after the pregnancy loss. Overall, they suggest that specifically the younger women in our sample might perceive pregnancy loss as a temporary crisis in their transition to motherhood, or to having another child, and as an impetus to reinforce their fertility goals, while for older respondents this might mark the end of their fertility career. Against the backdrop of rising ages at childbirth, future research on fertility and reproductive health care should pay more attention to reproductive complications and how affected women can be supported in coping with them.

Women's Work Characteristics and Fertility Expectations

Previous research has shown that employment is an important social context affecting fertility, yet relatively little is known about the extent to which work characteristics affect fertility expectations. Using over 25 years of data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we analyzed the associations between part-time work and characteristics associated with autonomy over working time, specifically self-employment and managerial/professional occupation, and childbearing expectations among women ages 18-45 (N=4,415). Logistic regression models for longitudinal data reveal that work characteristics are significantly associated with fertility expectations, but that the specific nature of the relationship varies by parity. Among women with one child, those working part-time had predicted probabilities of expecting to have additional children that were 2% higher than those working full-time. In contrast, among women without any children, those working part-time had predicted probabilities that were 2% lower than those working full-time. Similar contrasting relationships by parity were found when comparing self-employed women to employees and managers/professionals to those in other occupations. Findings were consistent across racial and ethnic groups. These results suggest that different mechanisms link work characteristics to fertility plans for mothers and non-mothers, specifically that role incompatibility and work-family conflict are more salient for mothers but that financial strain is so for non-mothers.

Explaining uncertainty in women's fertility preferences

People's fertility preferences are often considered an important determinant of fertility. What is often neglected in studies of preferred fertility, is the uncertainty that people may have about their preferences. In this study, using data on Dutch women through the Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences (collected early 2018), we examined women's fertility preferences and asked detailed questions about the certainty of these preferences. We also examined whether women agreed with their partner on preferred family size, and to what extent partner (dis)agreement shaped uncertainty. We show that Dutch women expressed much uncertainty about their fertility preferences, with only one-third feeling strongly about their preferences. Uncertainty strongly increased when women preferred higher numbers of children, whereas already having children reduced it. Women who wanted no children were most certain about their preference. Higher preferred family sizes also led to more disagreement with the partner about these preferences, and greater partner disagreement, in turn, led to more uncertainty. These findings imply that people are more likely to downgrade their fertility preferences than to increase them, as women are more certain about their preferences for lower numbers of children and are more open to family sizes below than above their preferred choice. Partner disagreement is often resolved by not having (more) children, lowering realised fertility. Hence, these findings provide another explanation for why many people have fewer children than desired.

Social Climate, Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: from the Great Recession to the Covid-19 Crisis

The literature on fertility in context of crises considers major crises exclusively as economic experiences, however, they are also social phenomena, affecting communities, morality and social interactions. When changes in the social climate are of a sufficient magnitude, they tend to break down the social fabric and generate additional uncertainty, more of a social form, which may affect reproductive decisions beyond economic uncertainty alone. Applying Fixed Effects Models to 18 waves of the Swiss Household Panel (2004-2021), this study evaluates the relationship between changes in social climate and social uncertainty and first and second order childbearing intentions, net of economic uncertainty, sociodemographic determinants and unobserved time-invariant individual and local area characteristics. Canton-level mean and variance of generalized trust and optimism about the future are used as proxies of the quality and the unpredictability of the social climate respondents live in. Besides parity, the study explores period variation by comparing the time around the Great Recession (before, during and after) and the years around the Covid-19 pandemic. Results show that the worsening of the social climate and its growing uncertainty correlate with lower and more uncertain first and second birth intentions. Yet, important parity-period interactions emerge.

Religiosity and trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions - Evidence from a German panel study

Much of the literature on fertility intentions has shown that they are broadly predictive of fertility behaviour. Fertility intentions tend to change over a person's life. How religiosity affects these changes over time has rarely been the subject of investigation. In this paper, we focus on whether and how religiosity affects trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions. Specifically, we examine whether highly religious people start with higher fertility intentions and are more likely to sustain them during their life course compared to their less religious counterparts. We apply random and fixed effects growth curve models to data from the German family panel pairfam, using a sample of 6214 women and 5802 men aged 14-46. We find that religiosity mainly contributes to explain the starting level at teenage years but not the trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions as people get older. Highly religious people start with higher intentions than less religious people. However, similarly to less religious people they experience a decline in their fertility intentions with age. This study demonstrates that religiosity is an important variable in research on fertility intentions but with changing relevance over the life course.

The Influence of Partnership Status on Fertility Intentions of Childless Women and Men Across European Countries

The absence of a suitable partner is the most frequently given reason for unmet fertility intentions across European countries while having a partner is positively associated with the intention to have a child. However, once this relationship is framed within a life-course approach, existing evidence is mixed and inconclusive. The norm to have children within a stable relationship and norms regarding the timing of childbirth are acknowledged in many contemporary societies. Therefore, the presence of a partner might have a stronger effect on fertility intentions around the social deadline for fertility, which could explain the mixed findings in previous research. This article analyses how fertility intentions are influenced by partnership status and how this relationship varies by age and across countries. We use data from the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey to analyse a sample of childless men and women aged 18-45 years from 12 European countries. We implement logistic regression models to investigate the influence of having a partner on fertility intentions during the life course. Previous studies found that the positive influence of having a partner either decreases across the life course or does not vary significantly. This study reveals that the positive association between partnership and fertility intentions increases from the age of 18, proving that whether someone is in a partnership becomes more influential at later stages in life. After a certain age threshold, which varies across countries and gender, this positive association either turns insignificant, remains positive, or reverses.

Stability and Relevance of Marriage Desires: Importance of Age Norms and Partnering Opportunities

Objective

This study investigates shifts in marriage desires during singlehood and the potential consequences associated with these shifts in Japan, a country epitomizing later and less marriage without substantial increases in nonmarital childbearing.

Background

Despite researchers' long-standing interest in values potentially motivating demographic changes, few have systematically examined marriage desires among unmarried adults. Even fewer have considered how marriage desires may change during adulthood and how relevant such changes are to marriage and family behavior.

Method

The analysis uses 11 waves of the Japan Life Course Panel Survey, which tracks singles' marriage desires yearly. Fixed effects models are estimated to demonstrate factors associated with within-person changes and account for unobserved heterogeneity.

Results

Japanese singles' marriage desires decline with age but are stronger when they perceive greater opportunities to form romantic relationships or marriage. Singles experiencing an increase in the desire to marry are more likely to take actions to seek partners and to enter a romantic relationship or marriage subsequently. The associations between marriage desires and the various behavioral changes strengthen with age and feasibility of marriage. Increases in marriage desires also correspond to increases in single men's parenthood desires and ideal numbers of children, and the link between marriage desires and fertility preferences is stronger as they age.

Conclusion

Marriage desires are not always stable or equally relevant throughout singlehood. Our study suggests that age norms and partnering opportunities both contribute to the fluctuation of marriage desires and affect when such desires would have behavioral implications.

Factors Associated with Fertility Intention among Chinese Married Youth during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Using the childbearing survey data from Hubei Province in March 2022, this article empirically analyzed the status quo of fertility intention and its influencing factors among Chinese married youth during the COVID-19 pandemic. In our analysis, fertility intention was operationalized as the ideal number of children and short-term fertility plan. Statistical results showed that the average ideal number of children stood at 1.652, which was lower than the population replacement level, whilst only 16.4% of married youth had a short-term fertility plan. By utilizing a binary logit regression model and the sheaf coefficient technique, we found that COVID-19-induced factors (i.e., change in the marital relationship during the epidemic, delayed pregnancy preparation due to vaccination) had a more stable effect on fertility intention, especially on short-term fertility planning. Parenting perception characteristics exerted a great impact on the ideal number of children but a relatively small impact on short-term fertility planning. Meanwhile, married youth with stable jobs and a high family income did not necessarily show stronger fertility intentions than those with fewer socioeconomic resources. In addition, the findings also reveal that the relative importance of fertility-influencing factors could vary at different fertile stages, which have valuable implications for population policy in Chinese contexts.

"It changed the atmosphere surrounding the baby I did have": Making sense of reproduction during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

This study examines the schemas that women employed during the COVID-19 pandemic to make sense of their reproductive desires.

Background

Existing research on reproduction during epidemics suggests that there are variable population responses to periods of long-term social uncertainty. However, less is known about how individuals make sense of maintaining or adapting their reproductive desires during periods of social upheaval.

Method

Twenty-nine women aged 25-35 from a mid-sized Midwestern county in the United States were recruited and interviewed about their experiences during the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. They were asked about their daily lived experiences and their reproductive desires during in-depth interviews. These interviews were transcribed and analyzed using thematic coding.

Results

Participants used three normative schemas to describe their reproductive desires during the COVID-19 pandemic. Heteronormative schemas were used by many participants to articulate their commitment to a heteronormative aged-staged timeline of life events. Schemas of social support around being pregnant and giving birth were used by participants, primarily those who were currently or recently pregnant, to express grief and loss over the relational experience of having a new baby. Medicalized schemas were expressed by most participants to describe feelings of fear and risk at real or imagined encounters with medical institutions.

Conclusion

The schemas that participants used to make sense of their reproductive desires demonstrate how sense-making during a profound event that affects everyday realities allows participants to (re)articulate commitments to existing narratives that reinforce heterosexual, social, and medicalized hierarchies in reproduction.

Group Normative Propensities, Societal Positioning, and Childbearing: Ethno‑linguistic Variation in Completed and Desired Fertility in Transitional Central Asia

Considerable research in western, low-fertility contexts has examined minority-vs.-majority fertility differentials, typically focusing on minority groups' cultural idiosyncrasies and on socioeconomic disadvantages associated with minority status. However, the formation and functioning of ethnic complexities outside the western world often diverge from the standard western model and so may their impact on fertility preferences, behavior, and outcomes. We expand on the previous research by analyzing ethnic variation in completed and desired fertility in the multiethnic transitional setting of Kyrgyzstan, where ethnic groups and their ethnolinguistic subparts are characterized by both different stages of the demographic transition and different positioning in the socioeconomic and political hierarchies. Using combined data from two rounds of a nationally representative survey, we find that ethnic-specific levels of completed fertility generally align with culturally shaped group-level normative propensities. In contrast, in desires to have a(nother) child, the ranking of the ethnic segments is more reflective of their collective societal positioning, with more disadvantaged segments having lower fertility desires, regardless of actual number of children and various other characteristics. We also find that ethnic homophily of respondents' social milieu and their optimism about the future of their ethnic group are positively associated with fertility desires, even though these associations are more potently present among women, compared to men. We relate our findings to the extant scholarship and reflect on their implications for a better understanding of ethno-racial fertility dynamics and differentials in transitional contexts.

The illusion of stable fertility preferences

Fertility preferences have long played a key role in models of fertility differentials and change. We examine the stability of preferences over time using rich panel data on Kenyan women's fertility desires, expectations, actual fertility, and recall of desires in three waves over a nine-year period, when respondents were in their 20s. We find that although desired fertility is quite unstable, most women perceive their desires to be stable. Under hypothetical future scenarios, few expect their desired fertility to increase over time but, in fact, such increases in fertility desires are common. Moreover, when asked to recall past desires, most respondents report previously wanting exactly as many children as they desire today. These patterns of bias are consistent with the emerging view that fertility desires are contextual, emotionally laden, and structured by identity.

Effects of sociodemographic background on fertility motivation patterns in the Beni-Suef governorate, Upper Egypt

Objectives

Subjects and methods

Results

Conclusion

The Positive Effect of Women's Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China

Despite pervasive evidence of more educated women having lower fertility, it remains unclear whether education reduces women's fertility. This study presents new evidence of the causal effect of women's education on fertility from China, where fertility has remained below the replacement level since the early 1990s. To account for endogeneity, the study exploits the timing and varying intensity of China's higher education expansion as exogenous sources of increase in women's education. Using data from China General Social Survey (2010-2012), findings show that each year of women's education induced by the higher education expansion increases the number of children ever born by 10%. According to the average marginal effects, each additional year of women's education increases the number of children ever born by 0.14, decreases the probability of having no children by 3 percentage points, and increases the probability of having two or more children by 4 percentage points. Two mechanisms drive the positive effect of education: first, education does not cause an increase in the mean age at first marriage; second, among ever-married women, education increases their demand for children. Findings from this study have important implications for China and other low-fertility developing countries.

Late fertility intentions increase over time in Austria, but chances to have a child at later ages remain low

Childbearing takes place at increasingly older ages, and fertility is continuing to decrease across female birth cohorts. This study investigated whether the proportion of women who unintentionally forwent childbearing increased over time, and linked this to the age profile of fertility intentions and realization among men and women. This study was based on the Austrian Micro-Censuses (1986-2016) and on the Austrian Generations and Gender Surveys (panel data 2008/09 and 2012/13). Across the birth cohorts 1950-1979, an increasing proportion of women wanted to have children after 40 years of age, but more women failed to meet their fertility intentions expressed at 34-36 years of age. At the individual level, from 30 years of age, more than one-third of women and men with a strong fertility intention were found to persist with this intention within four years even at less fertile ages. In addition, women and men with a strong fertility intention became less likely to have a child with age: <10% of women and approximately 20% of men who had expressed a certain and short-term intention to have a child at 39-41 years of age in 2008/09 had a child by 2012/13. In particular, childless women and men, and those with only one child, persisted in certain and short-term positive intentions from 30 years of age, but parity was not a significant factor in their realization. The sharp increase in 'unrealized fertility' over time draws attention to the importance that personal circumstances and context encountered at older ages may have for fertility, and augurs a continued increase in the use of assisted reproduction.

Is Leave for Fathers Pronatalist? A Mixed-Methods Study of the Impact of Fathers’ Uptake of Parental Leave on Couples’ Childbearing Intentions in South Korea

While many countries with low birth rates have implemented policies incentivizing fathers to take parental leave with the anticipation that it will contribute to raising birth rates, there is scant research empirically testing whether fathers’ uptake of leave is pronatalist. Existing research is limited to a few European (mostly Nordic) countries, and it is unclear whether there exists a positive causal relationship. Using mixed methods, this paper seeks to explore the processes and mechanisms by which fathers’ uptake of parental leave impacts intentions for additional children in South Korea, a country characterized by lowest-low fertility and low but rapidly expanding uptake of leave by fathers. Results based on multinomial logistic regression models suggest that in comparison to fathers who expect to take their first leave shortly, fathers with leave experience are less likely to report couple-level intentions for another child, significantly so at parity two. Interviews of fathers with parental leave experience confirm that fathers attenuate their fertility intentions downwards in light of the difficulties of childcare during their leave. While these intentions may change further down the line and/or couples may decide to continue an unplanned pregnancy, results suggest that fathers’ parental leave has an anti- rather than pronatalist effect in South Korea. This study demonstrates that in countries with poor support for the reconciliation of employment and childcare, equalizing the gendered division of parental leave may not be sufficient to see a reversal in its fertility trends.

Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000

After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.

Changing lives, dynamic plans: Prospective assessment of 12-month changes in pregnancy timing intentions and personal circumstances using data from HER Salt Lake

OBJECTIVES

To explore the association between changes in personal circumstances and shifts in pregnancy intentions.

STUDY DESIGN

New start contraceptive clients, who desired to prevent pregnancy for at least one year enrolled in the survey arm of the HER Salt Lake Contraceptive Initiative (September 2015 -March 2017) and responded to the question "What are your future pregnancy plans?" at enrollment and 12-month follow-up. We estimated multivariable binary logistic fixed-effects regressions to examine the association between changes in personal circumstances and a change from never desiring a pregnancy at enrollment to considering one in the future at 12-month follow-up.

RESULTS

The majority of the 2825 participants (2246, 79%) maintained their pregnancy timing intention over the 12-month study period. Multivariable analyses of the 208 participants who changed from never desiring a pregnancy to considering pregnancy in the future at 12-month follow-up indicated that entering cohabitation (aOR 3.14, 95% CI 1.30-7.58), increased household income (aOR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.13), and changes from unemployment to full-time employment (aOR 5.94, 95% CI 1.29-27.36) are associated with increased the odds of desiring a future pregnancy after never wanting one a year prior.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnancy intentions are dynamic over twelve months and covary with partner status, household income, and employment status. Pregnancy intentions are linked to changes in life circumstances. Health care providers need to frequently assess pregnancy intentions and resulting contraceptive or preconception needs.

Didn't Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe

The realisation rates of short-term childbearing intentions are known to be consistently lower in post-socialist countries than in the rest of Europe. However, the East-West differences in the outcomes of intentions to postpone or forego (further) childbearing have not been previously examined. We employ two panel waves of the Generations and Gender Survey in six countries (three from Eastern and three from Western Europe), and, based on the short- and long-term fertility intentions expressed by respondents at the first survey wave, we classify the births occurring between two waves as intended, sooner-than-intended, or unintended. We find that in our study population of non-teenage respondents who had the same partner at both survey waves and a child between the two survey waves, between around 10% (Western European countries) and 30% (Eastern European countries) experienced an unintended or a sooner-than-intended birth. The East-West divide is largely driven by the share of unintended parents which is clearly higher in the post-socialist countries. However, the geographical pattern fades away once we control for the anticipated costs of having a child. Our study gives insight into East-West differences in attitudes to childbearing and into how they affect reproductive behaviour. It also offers methodological improvements of cross-national panel surveys designed to examine childbearing intentions that would allow for a more accurate assessment of childbearing intendedness.

Delaying, debating and declining motherhood

Trends of delayed childbearing have accompanied declining birth rates and increasing numbers of childless adults in the USA. Women may postpone parenting in order to save money, find a partner, and get a 'family-friendly' job, but this reproductive strategy may not always be effective. This paper uses two waves of longitudinal data to track childless women's reproductive decision-making and behaviours. During wave 1, interviews were conducted with 72 childless US women between the ages of 25 and 40 about their reproductive desires and intentions. Approximately four years later, a subset of the original sample participated in surveys to assess consistencies between fertility intentions and outcomes, and in-depth interviews to elicit information about changes in their lives that transpired. Whereas some wave 2 participants had fulfilled their goal of becoming parents, the majority were still employing a delaying strategy or had declined to have children. Delayed childbearing was individually strategic for those who could garner resources to be in a better financial or social position to have and raise children, while others kept facing barriers that prevented them from realising their reproductive goals or changed their mind about their fertility intentions and desires.

Financial Support or Emotional Companion: Childbearing Motivations on Children's Development in China

A preference for having a son has existed among Chinese parents for centuries due to, in part, sons having to provide financial support to elderly parents, while married daughters do not have this responsibility under Confucianism. Thus, this study examined the influence of parents’ childbearing motivation (financial support or emotional companion) on children’s development (academic performance and well-being) utilizing empirical data from the 2012 China Family Panel Studies. This study included 1,541 children (aged 10–15 years) and their parents who were surveyed via a questionnaire. Using exploratory factor analysis, two dimensions of parents’ childbearing motivation were identified namely, utilitarian and psychological motivation. Furthermore, the invariance of the measurement model across the female and male group was tested. Then, results from structural equation modeling showed that parents’ childbearing motivation, particularly expected utilitarian benefits, decreased children’s expectation of the highest education, thus, worsening children’s academic performance. Alternatively, emotional/psychological motivation appeared to increase children’s self-esteem, thus, improving children’s well-being. Furthermore, gender differences were also observed. These findings have provided important insights into how childbearing motivations influence children’s development, thus, can be utilized to ensure positive development of future children in China.

Religiosity and Fertility Intentions: Can the Gender Regime Explain Cross-Country Differences?

Research on the relationship between religiosity and fertility intentions revealed substantial cross-national differences. In some countries, a strong and positive effect of religiosity on fertility intentions was found, while in others, the effect was weaker or not significant, and the reasons underlying these cross-national differences are still unclear. The aim of this article is to explain these macro-level differences from the perspective of the prevailing gender regime. We argue that in countries with more traditional regimes, a stronger effect of religiosity on fertility intentions could be expected than in countries with a more egalitarian view. We make use of the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey and incorporate data from a total of 12 European countries in our analysis. We examine the influence of gender regime according to various macro-level indicators on gender attitudes and gender equality using meta-regression analyses. We also conduct robustness checks using other indicators such as the Gender Development Index. Our results reveal that the gender regime is only able to explain these differences in certain situations, specifically those relating to the long-term fertility intentions of men.

A Panel Study of Fertility Preferences and Contraceptive Dynamics in the Presence of Competing Pregnancy Risks in Uganda

Although many studies have examined the influence of women's fertility preferences on subsequent fertility behavior and the role of contraceptive use intentions on unmet need, very few have explored their concurrent effects on contraceptive use dynamics. This study examines the independent concurrent effects of women's fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on subsequent adoption and discontinuation, treating pregnancy as a competing risk factor that may alter contraceptive need. The data are derived from a 2018 follow-up survey of a 2014 national sample of 3,800 Ugandan female respondents of childbearing age. The survey included a contraceptive calendar that recorded pregnancy, birth, and contraceptive event episodes, including reasons for discontinuation. We use competing risk regression to estimate the effect of fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions on the cumulative incidence function of contraceptive behaviors, accounting for intervening pregnancy, female background covariates, loss to follow-up, and complex survey design. We find that women's contraceptive intentions significantly increase the rate of contraceptive adoption. After having adopted, women's contraceptive intentions have been realized and do not prolong use. The risk of discontinuation among women who adopted after baseline was significantly higher than for those using at baseline, irrespective of their initial intentions. The effectiveness of the type of contraceptive method chosen significantly lowered discontinuation risk. Fertility preferences were not significantly associated with either time to adoption or discontinuation. The pace of the fertility transition in this sub-Saharan African setting is likely being shaped by reproductive regulation through the intentional use of contraception that enables spacing births.

Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Marriage Timing, and Achieved Fertility

In the United States, underachieving fertility desires is more common among women with higher levels of education and those who delay first marriage beyond their mid-20s. However, the relationship between these patterns, and particularly the degree to which marriage postponement explains lower fertility among the highly educated, is not well understood. We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort to analyze differences in parenthood and achieved parity for men and women, focusing on the role of marriage timing in achieving fertility goals over the life course. We expand on previous research by distinguishing between entry into parenthood and average parity among parents as pathways to underachieving, by considering variation in the impact of marriage timing by education and by stage of the life course, and by comparing results for men and women. We find that women with a bachelor's degree who desired three or more children are less likely to become mothers relative to women with the same desired family size who did not attend college. Conditional on becoming mothers, however, women with at least a bachelor's degree do not have lower completed family size. No comparable fatherhood difference by desired family size is present. Postponing marriage beyond age 30 is associated with lower proportions of parenthood but not with lower parity among parents. Age patterns are similar for women and men, pointing at social rather than biological factors driving the underachievement of fertility goals.

'They are my future': childbearing desires and motivations among women with disabilities in Ghana - implications for reproductive healthcare

BACKGROUND

Previous research has highlighted widespread public mis/perceptions that portray women with disabilities (WWDs) as asexual, less likely to marry, and often not interested in childbearing. However, evidence from high-income settings shows that many WWDs are sexually active and do have or want to have children. Notwithstanding this, very few studies have focused on understanding childbearing desires and motivations among WWDs in low-income settings. This qualitative research explored childbearing desires and motivations among WWDs in Ghana.

METHODS

A cross-sectional qualitative study was conducted with WWDs aged 18-49 years in Northern Ghana. The distribution of participants by disability types were as follows: physical disability/impairment (n = 37); visual impairment (n = 11); speech and hearing impairment (n = 14); epilepsy (n = ten); and albinism (n = five). A pre-tested open-ended thematic topic guide was designed and used to conduct in-depth interviews. Interviews were tape-recorded and later transcribed for analysis. Transcripts were coded using QSR NVivo 11 software. Thematic content analysis techniques were used to analyse and present the data.

RESULTS

Nearly all the WWDs interviewed were sexually active, desiring to have children, and intended to have as many children as they could support. Strong desire to experience the joy of motherhood; fear of social insecurity; fear of old age economic insecurity; desire to challenge stigma and negative stereotypes about disability, sexuality and motherhood; and desire for self-actualisation, were key motivations for childbearing.

CONCLUSION

Our findings challenge existing negative public perceptions about the status of WWDs in relation to sexuality, childbearing and motherhood. More importantly, our findings suggest that if the Sustainable Development Goals related to universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare are to be attained, WWDs must be targeted with quality sexual and reproductive healthcare information and services.

Is perception of inability to procreate a temporal phenomenon?: A longitudinal exploration of changes and determinants among women and men of reproductive age in Germany

Continued postponement of births and increasing use of reproductive medicine enhance the relevance of infertility and related perceptions for fertility research. Fertility researchers tend to assume that an existing perception of inability to procreate is a stable trait among persons of reproductive age. This assumption is questionable from a life course perspective and has not been thoroughly investigated. Therefore we investigate the prevalence, stability, and correlates of perceived inability to procreate. We apply between-within logit models to annual panel data (2008-2015) to study variation in perceived inability to procreate within individuals over time and between individuals. We find that approximately every 20th person of reproductive age is affected. There is considerable instability among those who ever perceive an inability to procreate: On average, 39 % of women and 48 % of men who perceive an inability in one year change to not perceiving an inability in the next year. Multivariate analysis shows that increases in age and perception of one's partner as unable to procreate are associated with higher odds of perceiving an inability to procreate. Not using contraception is associated with higher odds of perceiving an inability to procreate. Perceived procreative ability further differs by parity, level of education, immigration background, and religious denomination. In summary, perception of inability to procreate is a temporal phenomenon that is shaped by lifecourse contexts and social group differences.

Comparing Prospective and Retrospective Reports of Pregnancy Intention in a Longitudinal Cohort of U.S. Women

CONTEXT

Measurement of pregnancy intentions typically relies on retrospective reporting, an approach that may misrepresent the extent of unintended pregnancy. However, the degree of possible misreporting is unclear, as little research has compared prospective and retrospective reports of intention for the same pregnancies.

METHODS

Longitudinal data collected between 2010 and 2015 on 174 pregnancies were used to analyze the magnitude and direction of changes in intendedness (intended, ambivalent or unintended) between prospective and retrospective measurements of intendedness using versions of the London Measure of Unplanned Pregnancy (LMUP). Changes were assessed both continuously and categorically. Differences in the degree of change-by pregnancy outcome and participant characteristics-were examined using mixed-effects linear and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Over two and one-half years of follow-up, 143 participants reported 174 pregnancies. Approximately half showed changes in intention between the prospective and retrospective assessments, with 38% of participants reporting increased intendedness and 10% decreased intendedness. Reported intendedness increased more among those who gave birth (mean change in continuous LMUP score, 2.2) than among those who obtained an abortion (0.7), as well as among individuals with a college degree (4.1) than among those with a high school diploma (1.2). Participants who reported recent depression or anxiety symptoms showed more stable intentions (0.02) than those who did not (2.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Retrospective measurement of pregnancy intentions may underestimate the frequency of unintended pregnancy, with such underestimation being greater among certain subgroups. Estimates based on retrospective reports thus may produce inaccurate impressions of intentionality. Further efforts to refine the measurement of pregnancy preferences are needed.

Childbearing Intention and its Associated Factors among Adolescent Girls: A Narrative Review

Background

Childbearing is an important phenomenon among adolescents. Studies that have evaluated teenagers' reproductive patterns have found that many adolescents are ambivalent regarding sexual activity and childbearing. In order to assess the patterns of adolescents' reproductive health and pregnancy to conduct interventions, every country needs to collect specific data about childbearing intentions. This study was conducted to determine the factors that may affect the childbearing intentions of adolescents.

Materials and Methods

This article was a narrative review. Articles derived from PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from January of 2000 to February 2015 were assessed. Moreover, gray literature, such as conference abstracts, theses, and the result of technical reports were also used.

Results

In total, 15 studies were included in the review. The findings of this study showed that childbearing motives are affected by several factors. According to the results of the qualitative studies, some of the most important effective factors were women's decision-making power and financial issues. In this regard, the quantitative studies noted that the cultural and economic factors were more effective than other factors in determining the childbearing motives of adolescents.

Conclusions

Fertility expectations are affected by several factors and are compatible with a variety of conditions. Moreover, access to precise information on the effects of each factor (positive or negative) is necessary and useful for demographers, policymakers, and other planners in any community.

Declining realisation of reproductive intentions with age

STUDY QUESTION

What is the likelihood of having a child within 4 years for men and women with strong short-term reproductive intentions, and how is it affected by age?

SUMMARY ANSWER

For women, the likelihood of realising reproductive intentions decreased steeply from age 35: the effect of age was weak and not significant for men.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Men and women are postponing childbearing until later ages. For women, this trend is associated with a higher risk that childbearing plans will not be realised due to increased levels of infertility and pregnancy complications.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This study analyses two waves of the nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. The analytical sample interviewed in 2011 included 447 men aged 18–45 and 528 women aged 18–41. These respondents expressed a strong intention to have a child in the next 3 years. We followed them up in 2015 to track whether their reproductive intention was achieved or revised.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGS, METHODS

Multinomial logistic regression is used to account for the three possible outcomes: (i) having a child, (ii) not having a child but still intending to have one in the future and (iii) not having a child and no longer intending to have one. We analyse how age, parity, partnership status, education, perceived ability to conceive, self-rated health, BMI and smoking status are related to realising or changing reproductive intentions.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Almost two-thirds of men and women realised their strong short-term fertility plans within 4 years. There was a steep age-related decline in realising reproductive intentions for women in their mid- and late-30s, whereas men maintained a relatively high probability of having the child they intended until age 45. Women aged 38–41 who planned to have a child were the most likely to change their plan within 4 years. The probability of realising reproductive intention was highest for married and highly educated men and women and for those with one child.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our study cannot separate biological, social and cultural reasons for not realising reproductive intentions. Men and women adjust their intentions in response to their actual circumstances, but also in line with their perceived ability to have a child or under the influence of broader social norms on reproductive age.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our results give a new perspective on the ability of men and women to realise their reproductive plans in the context of childbearing postponement. They confirm the inequality in the individual consequences of delayed reproduction between men and women. They inform medical practitioners and counsellors about the complex biological, social and normative barriers to reproduction among women at higher childbearing ages.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This research was partly supported by a Research School of Social Sciences Visiting Fellowship at the Australian National University and an Australian Research Council Discovery Project (DP150104248). Éva Beaujouan’s work was partly funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) project ‘Later Fertility in Europe’ (Grant agreement no. P31171-G29). This paper uses unit record data from the HILDA Survey. The HILDA Project was initiated and is funded by the Australian Government Department of Social Services (DSS) and is managed by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (Melbourne Institute). The findings and views reported in this paper, however, are those of the authors and should not be attributed to either DSS or the Melbourne Institute. The authors have no conflicts of interest.

Educational differentials in the realisation of fertility intentions: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?

Background

The gap between fertility outcomes and fertility ideals is notably higher in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) than elsewhere, relating to both under- and overachievement of fertility ideals. We consider the extent to which the relationship between fertility ideals and fertility outcomes is related to educational achievement. Further, we consider if these educational differentials are the same or different in SSA, and thereby consider the extent to which increasing levels of education in SSA may decrease fertility.

Data and methods

We use 227 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) from 58 countries worldwide to look at population- level measures of the mismatch between fertility ideals and fertility outcomes. Population level measures are used to assess whether the correspondence between fertility intentions and achievements differ by level of education. We then look at the individual-level determinants of both under- and overachieving fertility intentions. Data from the most recent DHS in 54 of the original countries is used for the individual level analysis, with five countries excluded due to the most recent available survey being out of date.

Results

An average of 40% of women in SSA underachieve their stated fertility intentions compared to 26% in non-SSA countries. Furthermore, compared to other LMICs, higher levels of education are not related to better correspondence between fertility intentions and outcomes in SSA. In Middle/Western Africa countries, on average, 48% of women with secondary or higher education have fewer children than their ideal, compared to just 24% who have more children than their ideal.

Conclusion

We argue that the phenomenon of underachieving fertility ideals (or unrealized fertility) may be of particular importance for the ongoing fertility transition throughout SSA, especially as more highly educated groups do not appear to be following the patterns observed elsewhere.

Childless Expectations and Childlessness Over the Life Course

Using nineteen panels of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY-79), we construct life-lines characterizing women's childless expectations and fertility behavior. One-quarter of women in the NLSY-79 cohort ever reported an expectation for childlessness but only 14.8 percent of women remain childless. Childless women follow two predominant life course paths: (1) repeated postponement of childbearing and the subsequent adoption of a childless expectation at older ages or (2) indecision about parenthood signaled through vacillating reports of childless expectations across various ages. We also find that more than one in ten women became a mother after considering childlessness: an understudied group in research on childlessness and childbearing preferences. These findings reaffirm that it is problematic to assign expected and unexpected childlessness labels to the reproductive experience of childless women. In addition, despite their variability over time, childless expectations strongly predict permanent childlessness, regardless of the age when respondents offer them. Longitudinal logistic regression analysis of these childless expectations indicates a strong effect of childbearing postponement among the increasingly selective group of childless women. However, net of this postponement, few variables commonly associated with childlessness are associated with reports of a childless expectation. We thus conclude that the effects of socio-demographic and situational factors on childless expectations are channeled predominantly through repeated childbearing postponement.

Spacing, Stopping, or Postponing? Fertility Desires in a Sub-Saharan Setting

A growing body of research has argued that the traditional categories of stopping and spacing are insufficient to understand why individuals want to control fertility. In a series of articles, Timæus, Moultrie, and colleagues defined a third type of fertility motivation-postponement-that reflects a desire to avoid childbearing in the short term without clear goals for long-term fertility. Although postponement is fundamentally a description of fertility desires, existing quantitative research has primarily studied fertility behavior in an effort to find evidence for the model. In this study, we use longitudinal survey data to consider whether postponement can be identified in standard measures of fertility desires among reproductive-age women in rural Mozambique. Findings show strong evidence for a postponement mindset in this population, but postponement coexists with stopping and spacing goals. We reflect on the difference between birth spacing and postponement and consider whether and how postponement is a distinctive sub-Saharan phenomenon.

Paths to Parenthood Among Self-Identified Bisexual Individuals in the United States

Bisexual parents have been notably absent from prior research on parenting, despite comprising the largest proportion of parents among "lesbian, gay, and bisexual" (LGB) individuals. Indeed, recent national probability data indicate that young bisexual women are more likely than their heterosexual counterparts to report having at least one child. Intentions to have children, patterns of family planning and contraception use, and related issues have important implications for health and healthcare-related decisions and priorities among bisexual parents. We conducted in-depth interviews with a sample of 33 bisexual parents from across the U.S. who reported having at least one child (genetic, adopted, step or foster child, guardian, and/or warden of the state). In cases of intentional pregnancies, participants considered relationship and financial stability, job security and their ideal family size. Unintentional pregnancies, as well as pregnancy terminations, were often reframed as positive experiences. After deciding not to have more children, participants reported using contraceptive methods, including sterilization or long-acting reversible contraceptive methods (e.g., intrauterine devices). Instances of deception, in which partners deceived participants with false beliefs regarding their contraceptive use, were recalled negatively for the relatively small number of participants who reported such experiences. Overall, our findings point to a diversity in the intentions and ways bisexual individuals become parents, similar to parents of other sexual identities. Acknowledgements of the diverse experiences and concerns faced by bisexual parents may be beneficial in improving efforts related to providing appropriate and relevant health- and healthcare-related services.

From Some to None? Fertility Expectation Dynamics of Permanently Childless Women

Permanent childlessness is increasingly acknowledged as an outcome of a dynamic, context-dependent process, but few studies have integrated a life course framework to investigate the complex pathways leading to childlessness. This study focuses on an understudied yet revealing dimension of why individuals remain childless: stated fertility expectations over the life course. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort, I use a combination of sequence analysis, data-driven clustering techniques, and multivariable regression models to identify and describe groups of permanently childless women who follow similar trajectories of stated fertility expectations. Results indicate that a little more than one-half (56 %) of eventually childless women fall into a cluster where childlessness is expected before age 30. Women in the remaining clusters (44 %) transition to expecting childlessness later in the life course but are differentiated by the types of trajectories that precede the emergence of a childless expectation. Results from multivariable regression show that several respondent characteristics, including race/ethnicity, education, and marital history, predict cluster membership. Taken together, these findings add to a growing body of literature that provides a more nuanced description of permanently childless women and motivates further research that integrates interdependencies between life course domains and fertility expectations and decision-making of those who remain childless.

Intensive Parenting: Fertility and Breastfeeding Duration in the United States

Using 30 years of longitudinal data from a nationally representative cohort of women, we study the association between breastfeeding duration and completed fertility, fertility expectations, and birth spacing. We find that women who breastfeed their first child for five months or longer are a distinct group. They have more children overall and higher odds of having three or more children rather than two, compared with women who breastfeed for shorter durations or not at all. Expected fertility is associated with initiating breastfeeding but not with how long mothers breastfeed. Thus, women who breastfeed longer do not differ significantly from other breastfeeding women in their early fertility expectations. Rather, across the life course, these women achieve and even exceed their earlier fertility expectations. Women who breastfeed for shorter durations (1–21 weeks) are more likely to fall short of their expected fertility than to achieve or exceed their expectations, and they are significantly less likely than women who breastfeed for longer durations (≥22 weeks) to exceed their expected fertility. In contrast, women who breastfeed longer are as likely to exceed as to achieve their earlier expectations, and the difference between their probability of falling short versus exceeding their fertility expectations is relatively small and at the boundary of statistical significance (p = .096). These differences in fertility are not explained by differences in personal and family resources, including family income or labor market attachment. Our findings suggest that breastfeeding duration may serve as a proxy for identifying a distinct approach to parenting. Women who breastfeed longer have reproductive patterns quite different than their socioeconomic position would predict. They both have more children and invest more time in those children.

Socioeconomic determinants of rural women's desired fertility: A survey in rural Shaanxi, China

There has been evidence demonstrating that China has had a persistently low and below-replacement level fertility since early 1990s, causing concerns of a rapidly aging population and sustainability of the Chinese economy. To avoid adverse effects of excessively low fertility, the Chinese government has recently changed its family planning policy from "one-child policy" to "two-child policy." Nonetheless, the effectiveness of the newly initiated two-child policy is questionable if women's average desired number of children or desired fertility for their lifetime is below the threshold fertility allowed by the two-child policy. Therefore, this study argues that it would be interesting and pertinent to know women's fertility desires under the circumstances of no policy restrictions and understand major factors that may affect their desired fertility. Based on a multi-stage stratified cluster sampling survey with 2,516 women respondents in rural Shaanxi, this study tries to estimate desired fertility of rural women and evaluate the impact of important socioeconomic factors on their desired fertility. The results of this study reveal that the average lifetime desired fertility for rural women of childbearing age in Shaanxi is about 1.71, below the total fertility rate at the replacement level. The findings of this study suggest that women's marriage age, the pecuniary costs of having children, women's income forgone for having children, and social security benefits available for rural residents at retirement age, are significantly and negatively related to desired fertility. However, rural women's cultural views towards fertility are significantly but positively related to their desired fertility. This study further confirms that China has entered an era of low fertility, and thus, any policy restrictions on fertility may no longer be necessary. Instead, government programs which support childbearing and childrearing are needed to prevent excessive low fertility and rapid aging of the population.