CampylobacterMonitoring in German Broiler Flocks: An Explorative Time Series Analysis

Exploring the association of weather variability on Campylobacter - A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Previous work has found climate change-induced weather variability is suspected to increase the transmission of enteric pathogens, including Campylobacter, a leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis. While the relationship between extreme weather events and diarrheal diseases has been documented, the specific impact on Campylobacter infections remains underexplored.

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize the peer-reviewed literature exploring the effect of weather variability on Campylobacter infections in humans.

METHODS

The review included English language, peer-reviewed articles, published up to September 1, 2022 in PubMed, Embase, GEOBASE, Agriculture and Environmental Science Database, and CABI Global Health exploring the effect of an antecedent weather event on human enteric illness caused by Campylobacter (PROSPERO Protocol # 351884). We extracted study information including data sources, methods, summary measures, and effect sizes. Quality and weight of evidence reported was summarized and bias assessed for each article.

RESULTS

After screening 278 articles, 47 articles (34 studies, 13 outbreak reports) were included in the evidence synthesis. Antecedent weather events included precipitation (n = 35), temperature (n = 30), relative humidity (n = 7), sunshine (n = 6), and El Niño and La Niña (n = 3). Reviewed studies demonstrated that increases in precipitation and temperature were correlated with Campylobacter infections under specific conditions, whereas low relative humidity and sunshine were negatively correlated. Articles estimating the effect of animal operations (n = 15) found presence and density of animal operations were significantly associated with infections. However, most of the included articles did not assess confounding by seasonality, presence of animal operations, or describe estimates of risk.

DISCUSSION

This review explores what is known about the influence of weather events on Campylobacter and identifies previously underreported negative associations between low relative humidity and sunshine on Campylobacter infections. Future research should explore pathogen-specific estimates of risk, which can be used to influence public health strategies, improve source attribution and causal pathways, and project disease burden due to climate change.

Process Hygiene Criterion for Campylobacter and Number of Campylobacter Enteritis Cases in Northwest Germany

Campylobacteriosis is the most commonly reported bacterial foodborne disease in the European Union. Its transmission is often associated with the consumption of poultry meat. In 2018, Regulation (EC) No. 2017/1495 introduced a process hygiene criterion and with this, the testing requirements for Campylobacter. The results of microbiological testing for Campylobacter of chicken carcass neck skin samples from several slaughter lines in Northwest Germany collected by the food business operators and contamination levels (cfu/g Campylobacter) of these samples were analysed from 2018 to 2021. Classification into three different categories was made based on contamination levels. The proportion of highly contaminated (category three) neck samples (>1000 cfu/g) decreased from 2018 to 2021. Our analysis showed a relationship between the number of neck samples with high Campylobacter contamination levels (>1000 cfu/g) and human cases in Northwest Germany. Spearman's rank test (p < 0.01) showed a higher correlation in 2018 (0.66) and 2019 (0.58) compared to 2020 and 2021. Campylobacter enteritis cases in Northwest Germany stayed at a low level in 2020 and 2021. It remains unclear whether the decrease in reported Campylobacter enteritis cases is related to a decrease in Campylobacter levels on chicken carcasses or due to other reasons like underreporting during the COVID-19 pandemic, and therefore must be investigated in further analyses.

Genomic insight into Campylobacter jejuni isolated from commercial turkey flocks in Germany using whole-genome sequencing analysis

Campylobacter (C.) jejuni is a zoonotic bacterium of public health significance. The present investigation was designed to assess the epidemiology and genetic heterogeneity of C. jejuni recovered from commercial turkey farms in Germany using whole-genome sequencing. The Illumina MiSeq^® technology was used to sequence 66 C. jejuni isolates obtained between 2010 and 2011 from commercial meat turkey flocks located in ten German federal states. Phenotypic antimicrobial resistance was determined. Phylogeny, resistome, plasmidome and virulome profiles were analyzed using whole-genome sequencing data. Genetic resistance markers were identified with bioinformatics tools (AMRFinder, ResFinder, NCBI and ABRicate) and compared with the phenotypic antimicrobial resistance. The isolates were assigned to 28 different sequence types and 11 clonal complexes. The average pairwise single nucleotide-polymorphisms distance of 14,585 SNPs (range: 0-26,540 SNPs) revealed a high genetic distinction between the isolates. Thirteen virulence-associated genes were identified in C. jejuni isolates. Most of the isolates harbored the genes flaA (83.3%) and flaB (78.8%). The wlaN gene associated with the Guillain-Barré syndrome was detected in nine (13.6%) isolates. The genes for resistance to ampicillin (bla _OXA), tetracycline [tet(O)], neomycin [aph(3')-IIIa], streptomycin (aadE) and streptothricin (sat4) were detected in isolated C. jejuni using WGS. A gene cluster comprising the genes sat4, aph(3')-IIIa and aadE was present in six isolates. The single point mutation T86I in the housekeeping gene gyrA conferring resistance to quinolones was retrieved in 93.6% of phenotypically fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates. Five phenotypically erythromycin-susceptible isolates carried the mutation A103V in the gene for the ribosomal protein L22 inferring macrolide resistance. An assortment of 13 β-lactam resistance genes (bla _OXA variants) was detected in 58 C. jejuni isolates. Out of 66 sequenced isolates, 28 (42.4%) carried plasmid-borne contigs. Six isolates harbored a pTet-like plasmid-borne contig which carries the tet(O) gene. This study emphasized the potential of whole-genome sequencing to ameliorate the routine surveillance of C. jejuni. Whole-genome sequencing can predict antimicrobial resistance with a high degree of accuracy. However, resistance gene databases need curation and updates to revoke inaccuracy when using WGS-based analysis pipelines for AMR detection.

Transmission pathways of campylobacter spp. at broiler farms and their environment in Brandenburg, Germany

Broiler meat is widely known as an important source of foodborne Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli infections in humans. In this study, we thoroughly investigated transmission pathways that may contribute to possible Campylobacter contamination inside and outside broiler houses. For this purpose we carried out a comprehensive longitudinal sampling approach, using a semi-quantitative cultivation method to identify and quantify transmissions and reservoirs of Campylobacter spp.. Three german broiler farms in Brandenburg and their surrounding areas were intensively sampled, from April 2018 until September 2020. Consecutive fattening cycles and intervening downtimes after cleaning and disinfection were systematically sampled in summer and winter. To display the potential phylogeny of barn and environmental isolates, whole genome sequencing (WGS) and bioinformatic analyses were performed. Results obtained in this study showed very high Campylobacter prevalence in 51/76 pooled feces (67.1%) and 49/76 boot swabs (64.5%). Average counts between 6.4 to 8.36 log10MPN/g were detected in pooled feces. In addition, levels of 4.7 and 4.1 log10MPN/g were detected in boot swabs and litter, respectively. Samples from the barn interior showed mean Campyloacter values in swabs from drinkers 2.6 log10MPN/g, walls 2.0 log10MPN/g, troughs 1.7 log10MPN/g, boards 1.6 log10MPN/g, ventilations 0.9 log10MPN/g and 0.7 log10MPN/g for air samples. However, Campylobacter was detected only in 7/456 (1.5%) of the environmental samples (water bodies, puddles or water-filled wheel tracks; average of 0.6 log10MPN/g). Furthermore, WGS showed recurring Campylobacter genotypes over several consecutive fattening periods, indicating that Campylobacter genotypes persist in the environment during downtime periods. However, after cleaning and disinfection of the barns, we were unable to identify potential sources in the broiler houses. Interestingly, alternating Campylobacter genotypes were observed after each fattening period, also indicating sources of contamination from the wider environment outside the farm. Therefore, the results of this study suggest that a potential risk of Campylobacter transmission may originate from present environmental sources (litter and water reservoirs). However, the sources of Campylobacter transmission may vary depending on the operation and farm environmental conditions.

Emission Sources of Campylobacter from Agricultural Farms, Impact on Environmental Contamination and Intervention Strategies

Although extensive research has been carried out to describe the transmission pathways of Campylobacter entering livestock farms, the role of livestock farms as source of Campylobacter contamination of the environment is still poorly investigated. It is assumed that Campylobacter-positive livestock farms contribute to an environmental contamination, depending on the animal species on the farm, their Campylobacter status, the housing system, manure management as well as their general farm hygienic and biosecurity management. Different emission sources, like manure, air, water, insects and rodents as well as personnel, including equipment and vehicles, contribute to Campylobacter emission into the environment. Even though Campylobacter are rather fastidious bacteria, they are able to survive in the environment for even a longer period of time, when environmental conditions enable survival in specific niches. We conclude that a significant reduction of Campylobacter emission in the environment can be successfully achieved if various intervention strategies, depending on the farm type, are applied simultaneously, including proper general and personal hygiene, establishing of hygienic barriers, insect controls, manure management and hygienization of stables, barns and exhaust air.

Small-scaled association between ambient temperature and campylobacteriosis incidence in Germany

Campylobacteriosis is the leading bacterial cause of human diarrheal illness worldwide. Campylobacteriosis incidence exhibits seasonality and has been attributed to ambient temperature. However, the role of ambient temperature on campylobacteriosis remains poorly understood. To examine the impact of ambient temperature on local campylobacteriosis in Germany, weekly incidences on NUTS-3 level were analysed using a novel small-scaled approach, regression and time lags. Campylobacteriosis incidence correlated positively with temperatures between - 5 and 28 °C. The sigmoid regression model estimated an incidence increase of 0.52 per 5 °C temperature rise in the observation period. The weekly average of daily minimum temperature was most significant at a time lag of two weeks and showed the steepest incidence increase of 0.13 per 1 °C temperature increase in a temperature corridor of 5.1 to 12.2 °C. The impact of average minimum temperatures on campylobacteriosis incidence is crucial, likely to be indirect and especially relevant in the recent part of the infection chain. Vectors or human behaviour are presumably more directly linked with temperature than the pathogen's microbiology and should be examined. These variables outweigh the direct temperature-pathogen relationship when the whole chain of infection is considered. In the context of climate change, campylobacteriosis is likely to increase in Germany due to an increased temperature effect.

Seasonality and the effects of weather on Campylobacter infections

Background

Campylobacteriosis is a major public health concern. The weather factors that influence spatial and seasonal distributions are not fully understood.

Methods

To investigate the impacts of temperature and rainfall on Campylobacter infections in England and Wales, cases of Campylobacter were linked to local temperature and rainfall at laboratory postcodes in the 30 days before the specimen date. Methods for investigation included a comparative conditional incidence, wavelet, clustering, and time series analyses.

Results

The increase of Campylobacter infections in the late spring was significantly linked to temperature two weeks before, with an increase in conditional incidence of 0.175 cases per 100,000 per week for weeks 17 to 24; the relationship to temperature was not linear. Generalized structural time series model revealed that changes in temperature accounted for 33.3% of the expected cases of Campylobacteriosis, with an indication of the direction and relevant temperature range. Wavelet analysis showed a strong annual cycle with additional harmonics at four and six months. Cluster analysis showed three clusters of seasonality with geographic similarities representing metropolitan, rural, and other areas.

Conclusions

The association of Campylobacteriosis with temperature is likely to be indirect. High-resolution spatial temporal linkage of weather parameters and cases is important in improving weather associations with infectious diseases. The primary driver of Campylobacter incidence remains to be determined; other avenues, such as insect contamination of chicken flocks through poor biosecurity should be explored.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3840-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Antimicrobial Resistance in Campylobacter Species: Mechanisms and Genomic Epidemiology

The Campylobacter genus is a large and diverse group of Gram-negative bacteria that are known to colonize humans and other mammals, birds, reptiles, and shellfish. While it is now recognized that several emerging Campylobacter species can be associated with human disease, two species, C. jejuni and C. coli, are responsible for the vast majority of bacterial gastroenteritis in humans worldwide. Infection with C. jejuni, in particular, has also been associated with a number of extragastrointestinal manifestations and autoimmune conditions, most notably Guillain-Barré syndrome. The antimicrobial drugs of choice for the treatment of severe Campylobacter infection include macrolides, such as erythromycin, clarithromycin, or azithromycin. Fluoroquinolones, such as ciprofloxacin, are also commonly used for empirical treatment of undiagnosed diarrheal disease. However, resistance to these and other classes of antimicrobial drugs is increasing and is a major public health problem. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that over 300,000 infections per year are caused by drug-resistant Campylobacter. In this chapter, we discuss the taxonomy of the Campylobacter genus, the clinical and global epidemiological aspects of Campylobacter infection, with an emphasis on C. jejuni and C. coli, and issues related to the treatment of infection and antimicrobial resistance mechanisms. We further discuss the use of next-generation sequencing for the detection and surveillance of antimicrobial resistance genes.

Do contamination of and exposure to chicken meat and water drive the temporal dynamics of Campylobacter cases?

Campylobacteriosis, the most frequent bacterial enteric disease, shows a clear yet unexplained seasonality. The study purpose was to explore the influence of seasonal fluctuation in the contamination of and in the behaviour exposures to two important sources of Campylobacter on the seasonality of campylobacteriosis. Time series analyses were applied to data collected through an integrated surveillance system in Canada in 2005-2010. Data included sporadic, domestically-acquired cases of Campylobacter jejuni infection, contamination of retail chicken meat and of surface water by C. jejuni, and exposure to each source through barbequing and swimming in natural waters. Seasonal patterns were evident for all variables with a peak in summer for human cases and for both exposures, in fall for chicken meat contamination, and in late fall for water contamination. Time series analyses showed that the observed campylobacteriosis summer peak could only be significantly linked to behaviour exposures rather than sources contamination (swimming rather than water contamination and barbequing rather than chicken meat contamination). The results indicate that the observed summer increase in human cases may be more the result of amplification through more frequent risky exposures rather than the result of an increase of the Campylobacter source contamination.

Climatic factors and prevalence of Campylobacter in commercial broiler flocks in Thailand

Campylobacter are bacteria associated with human foodborne disease worldwide. Poultry and poultry products are generally considered as a main source of these organisms. Compared to temperate zones, baseline information on Campylobacter in tropical regions is limited. Thus, the objectives of the present study were 1) to determine the prevalence of Campylobacter in Thai broiler flocks and 2) to investigate the association between climatic factors (i.e., rainfall, ambient temperature, and relative humidity) and Campylobacter colonization status of broiler flocks in Thailand. A total of 442 commercial broiler flocks reared in the central and northeastern regions of Thailand during 2012 to 2014 were investigated. Campylobacter positive status was identified in 252 examined flocks (57.01%; 95% CI 52.39 to 61.63%). Prevalence of Campylobacter in the northeastern region (54.46%; 95% CI 44.76 to 63.83%) was slightly lower than that of the central region (57.77%; 95% CI 52.47 to 62.90%). More than 65% of Campylobacter positive flocks in the central and northeastern regions had within-flock prevalence higher than 75%. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) revealed that the increased rainfall and relative humidity were associated with the increase of Campylobacter colonization in broiler flocks (P ≤ 0.05), while no relationship between ambient temperature and Campylobacter colonization status was identified.

Association between the ambient temperature and the occurrence of human Salmonella and Campylobacter infections

Salmonella spp. and thermotolerant Campylobacter spp. are the most important causes of human bacterial diarrheal infections worldwide. These bacterial species are influenced by several factors like behaviour of the host, shedding, environment incl. directly or indirectly through ambient temperature, and the infections show seasonality. Therefore, the aim of our study was to investigate the association between the occurrence of human campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis and the ambient temperature. The number of campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis cases in two German metropolises, Munich and Berlin, and three rural regions was analysed with simultaneous consideration of the ambient temperature over a period of four years (2001 to 2004) using regression, time series, and cross-correlation analysis. The statistical analysis showed that an increase in the ambient temperature correlated positively with an increase in human Salmonella and Campylobacter cases. The correlation occurred with a delay of approximately five weeks. The seasonal rise in ambient temperature correlated with increased incidence of bacterial diarrheal infections.

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.

The importance of climatic factors and outliers in predicting regional monthly campylobacteriosis risk in Georgia, USA

Incidence of Campylobacter infection exhibits a strong seasonal component and regional variations in temperate climate zones. Forecasting the risk of infection regionally may provide clues to identify sources of transmission affected by temperature and precipitation. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess temporal patterns and differences in campylobacteriosis risk among nine climatic divisions of Georgia, USA, (2) compare univariate forecasting models that analyze campylobacteriosis risk over time with those that incorporate temperature and/or precipitation, and (3) investigate alternatives to supposedly random walk series and non-random occurrences that could be outliers. Temporal patterns of campylobacteriosis risk in Georgia were visually and statistically assessed. Univariate and multivariable forecasting models were used to predict the risk of campylobacteriosis and the coefficient of determination (R(2)) was used for evaluating training (1999-2007) and holdout (2008) samples. Statistical control charting and rolling holdout periods were investigated to better understand the effect of outliers and improve forecasts. State and division level campylobacteriosis risk exhibited seasonal patterns with peaks occurring between June and August, and there were significant associations between campylobacteriosis risk, precipitation, and temperature. State and combined division forecasts were better than divisions alone, and models that included climate variables were comparable to univariate models. While rolling holdout techniques did not improve predictive ability, control charting identified high-risk time periods that require further investigation. These findings are important in (1) determining how climatic factors affect environmental sources and reservoirs of Campylobacter spp. and (2) identifying regional spikes in the risk of human Campylobacter infection and their underlying causes.

Relevance of Campylobacter to public health--the need for a One Health approach

Campylobacter species belong to the most important foodborne bacteria which cause gastroenteritis in humans in both developed and developing countries. With increasing reporting rates, the public awareness towards Campylobacter infections is growing continuously. This strengthens the necessity to establish intervention measures for prevention and control of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. along the food chain, as in particular poultry and poultry meat represent a major source of human infections. An interdisciplinary One Health approach and a combined effort of all stakeholders are necessary to ultimately reduce the burden of campylobacteriosis cases in humans. Numerous studies point out, however, that at present a complete elimination of Campylobacter in the food chain is not feasible. The present aim should therefore be to establish control measures and intervention strategies to minimize the occurrence of Campylobacter spp. in livestock (e.g. poultry flocks) and to reduce the quantitative Campylobacter burden in animals and foods. To this end, a combination of intervention methods at different stages of the food chain appears most promising. That has to be accompanied by targeted consumer advice and education campaigns to raise the awareness towards Campylobacter infections.

Comparison of time series models for predicting campylobacteriosis risk in New Zealand

Predicting campylobacteriosis cases is a matter of considerable concern in New Zealand, after the number of the notified cases was the highest among the developed countries in 2006. Thus, there is a need to develop a model or a tool to predict accurately the number of campylobacteriosis cases as the Microbial Risk Assessment Model used to predict the number of campylobacteriosis cases failed to predict accurately the number of actual cases. We explore the appropriateness of classical time series modelling approaches for predicting campylobacteriosis. Finding the most appropriate time series model for New Zealand data has additional practical considerations given a possible structural change, that is, a specific and sudden change in response to the implemented interventions. A univariate methodological approach was used to predict monthly disease cases using New Zealand surveillance data of campylobacteriosis incidence from 1998 to 2009. The data from the years 1998 to 2008 were used to model the time series with the year 2009 held out of the data set for model validation. The best two models were then fitted to the full 1998-2009 data and used to predict for each month of 2010. The Holt-Winters (multiplicative) and ARIMA (additive) intervention models were considered the best models for predicting campylobacteriosis in New Zealand. It was noticed that the prediction by an additive ARIMA with intervention was slightly better than the prediction by a Holt-Winter multiplicative method for the annual total in year 2010, the former predicting only 23 cases less than the actual reported cases. It is confirmed that classical time series techniques such as ARIMA with intervention and Holt-Winters can provide a good prediction performance for campylobacteriosis risk in New Zealand. The results reported by this study are useful to the New Zealand Health and Safety Authority's efforts in addressing the problem of the campylobacteriosis epidemic.

A Review of the Use of Organic Amendments and the Risk to Human Health

Historically, organic amendments—organic wastes—have been the main source of plant nutrients, especially N. Their use allows better management of often-finite resources to counter changes in soils that result from essential practices for crop production. Organic amendments provide macro- and micronutrients, including carbon for the restoration of soil physical and chemical properties. Challenges from the use of organic amendments arise from the presence of heavy metals and the inability to control the transformations required to convert the organic forms of N and P into the minerals available to crops, and particularly to minimize the losses of these nutrients in forms that may present a threat to human health. Animal manure and sewage biosolids, the organic amendments in greatest abundance, contain components that can be hazardous to human health, other animals and plants. Pathogens pose an immediate threat. Antibiotics, other pharmaceuticals and naturally produced hormones may pose a threat if they increase the number of zoonotic disease organisms that are resistant to multiple antimicrobial drugs or interfere with reproductive processes. Some approaches aimed at limiting N losses (e.g. covered liquid or slurry storage, rapid incorporation into the soil, timing applications to minimize delay before plant uptake) also tend to favor survival of pathogens. Risks to human health, through the food chain and drinking water, from the pathogens, antibiotics and hormonal substances that may be present in organic amendments can be reduced by treatment before land application, such as in the case of sewage biosolids. Other sources, such as livestock and poultry manures, are largely managed by ensuring that they are applied at the rate, time and place most appropriate to the crops and soils. A more holistic approach to management is required as intensification of agriculture increases.

Campylobacter epidemiology: a descriptive study reviewing 1 million cases in England and Wales between 1989 and 2011

OBJECTIVES

To review Campylobacter cases in England and Wales over 2 decades and examine the main factors/mechanisms driving the changing epidemiology.

DESIGN

A descriptive study of Campylobacter patients between 1989 and 2011. Cases over 3 years were linked anonymously to postcode, population density, deprivation indices and census data. Cases over 5 years were anonymously linked to local weather exposure estimates.

SETTING

Patients were from general practice, hospital and environmental health investigations through primary diagnostic laboratories across England and Wales.

PARTICIPANTS

There were 1 109 406 cases.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Description of changes in Campylobacter epidemiology over 23 years and how the main drivers may influence these.

RESULTS

There was an increase in Campylobacter cases over the past 23 years, with the largest increase in people over 50 years. Changes in the underlying population have contributed to this, including the impacts of population increases after World War I, World War II and the 'baby boom' of the 1960s. A recent increase in risk or ascertainment within this population has caused an increase in cases in all age groups from 2004 to 2011. The seasonal increase in cases between weeks 18 (Early May) and 22 (Early June) was consistent across ages, years and regions and was most marked in children and in more rural regions. Campylobacter prevalence by week in each region correlated with temperature 2 weeks before. There were higher prevalences in areas with a low population density, low deprivation and lower percentage of people of ethnic origin. Data from sero-phage and multilocus sequence typing show a few common types and many uncommon types.

CONCLUSIONS

The drivers/mechanisms influencing seasonality, age distribution, population density, socioeconomic and long-term differences are diverse and their relative contributions remain to be established. Surveillance and typing provide insights into Campylobacter epidemiology and sources of infection, providing a sound basis for targeted interventions.

[Campylobacteriosis of man : livestock as reservoir for Campylobacter species]

Over the last few years, infections with Campylobacter have significantly increased in Europe and Germany and these bacteria have even surpassed Salmonella as the most prevalent bacteria, causing gastroenteritis. Especially contamination during the handling and consumption of meat products seems to be the most important risk factor which plays a prominent role for transmission to man. In addition, contact with pets and other animals, drinking raw or improperly pasteurized milk, and the tenacity of Campylobacter in different environments, especially water, have also to be considered for an adequate risk assessment. Besides gastroenteritis, arthralgia, and Guillain-Barré syndrome are important clinical complications of Campylobacter infections in man. At the same time, it is mostly unclear why the course of infection in man and in reservoir animals differs significantly, especially as only a few classical bacterial virulence factors have been identified so far. For these reasons, the development of efficient prevention strategies is of utmost importance in order to control campylobacteriosis.

The spatial and temporal determinants of campylobacteriosis notifications in New Zealand, 2001–2007

Despite recent improvements, New Zealand still has one of the highest per-capita incidence rates of campylobacteriosis in the world. To reduce the incidence, a thorough understanding of the epidemiology of infection is needed. This retrospective analysis of 36 000 notified human cases during a high-risk period between 2001 and 2007 explored the spatial and temporal determinants of Campylobacter notifications at a fine spatial scale in order to improve understanding of the complex epidemiology. Social deprivation was associated with a decreased risk of notification, whereas urban residence was associated with an increased risk. However, for young children rural residence was a risk factor. High dairy cattle density was associated with an increased risk of notification in two of the three regions investigated. Campylobacter notification patterns exhibit large temporal variations; however, few factors were associated with periods of increased risk, in particular temperature did not appear to drive the seasonality in campylobacteriosis.

Persistent environmental reservoirs on farms as risk factors for Campylobacter in commercial poultry

Campylobacter is the most common known source of human bacterial enteritis in the developed world and poultry is considered the main source. Broilers often become colonized with Campylobacter during rearing, and then contaminate the farm environment. The objective of this study was to identify Campylobacter-positive environmental reservoirs on farms, as these pose a risk to broiler flocks becoming colonized with Campylobacter. We considered the temporal aspects of exposure and colonization. A longitudinal study monitored six conventional rearing farms over 2 years. The broiler flocks, catchers' equipment, vehicles, shed surrounds, shed entrance, other equipment, farm entrance, other animals, puddles, dead birds, mains water and drinkers were systematically sampled 2-4 times per flock. A multivariable generalized estimating equation model was used to assess associations between contaminated environmental sites and colonized broiler flocks. The associations were adjusted for confounders and other known risk factors. To further assess temporality of contamination, the sequence of contamination of the different environmental sites and the flocks was established. Contaminated shed entrances and anterooms, contaminated drinkers and shedding of Campylobacter by other animals such as cattle, dogs, wildlife and rodents were significantly associated with positive flocks. The reservoir of 'other animals' was also the reservoir most commonly positive before the flock became colonized. The other sites usually became contaminated after the flock was colonized.

Patterns of rabies occurrence in Bhutan between 1996 and 2009

This study was conducted to evaluate incidence and seasonal trends of rabies in dogs and other domestic animals in Bhutan from 1996 to 2009. Time series analysis approach was used to determine the seasonal trend and temporal association between species-specific rabies cases in animals. A total of 814 rabies cases were reported during the 14-year period, of which cattle and domestic dogs accounted for 55% (447/814) and 39% (317/814) of the cases, respectively. The remaining 6% of the cases (50/814) were reported in horses (2%), cats (2%), pigs (1%) and goats (1%). Rabies cases were reported throughout the year with more reports during spring and summer months. The annual patterns of cases were stable from 1996 to 2005, but the incidence increased during 2006 and 2008. Fifty-nine of the 205 sub-districts reported rabies in animals from 1996 to 2009 with increased incidences in the four districts in southern Bhutan, an area located close to the border towns of India. A significant (P < 0.05) positive cross-correlation was observed between the number of cases in dogs and other domestic animals at time lags (months) 1-3 with the highest correlation (r = 0.94, P < 0.05) observed at time lag 0 (same month) indicating that the peak in rabies incidences occur in the same month when both dogs and other domestic animal cases are reported. Regression analysis predicted rabies in other domestic animal when there are reports of rabies in dogs during the previous months. This study provides useful information about the epidemiology of rabies that can be used to plan a rabies control programme in Bhutan.

Comparison of three time-series models for predicting campylobacteriosis risk

Three time-series models (regression, decomposition, and Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving averages) were applied to national surveillance data for campylobacteriosis with the goal of disease forecasting in three US states. Datasets spanned 1998-2007 for Minnesota and Oregon, and 1999-2007 for Georgia. Year 2008 was used to validate model results. Mean absolute percent error, mean square error and coefficient of determination (R2) were the main evaluation fit statistics. Results showed that decomposition best captured the temporal patterns in disease risk. Training dataset R2 values were 72.2%, 76.3% and 89.9% and validation year R2 values were 66.2%, 52.6% and 79.9% respectively for Georgia, Oregon and Minnesota. All three techniques could be utilized to predict monthly risk of infection for Campylobacter sp. However, the decomposition model provided the fastest, most accurate, user-friendly method. Use of this model can assist public health personnel in predicting epidemics and developing disease intervention strategies.

Trends in Campylobacter incidence in broilers and humans in six European countries, 1997-2007

The objective of this study was to examine incidences of Campylobacter in broilers and humans, and to describe seasonal variation and long-term trends by comparing longitudinal surveillance data in six Northern European countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands). Due to high degree of seasonality and autocorrelation, seasonally adjusted (de-seasonalized) and trend adjusted data (de-trended) were used for comparing incidences within and between the six countries. De-seasonalized time series were obtained by fitting the incidence time series to mean monthly temperature and then removing this effect from the data. Long-term trends were fitted to the de-seasonalized time series. The incidence of Campylobacter colonization in broiler flocks and incidence of campylobacteriosis in humans showed a concordant seasonality for all the countries. There was a strong association between the incidence in both broilers and humans in a given month and the mean temperature of the northern hemisphere in the same month, as well as the preceding month, as shown by the cross-correlations and the chosen Generalized Additive Model. Denmark and Sweden showed a steadily decreasing trend for Campylobacter in broilers and human campylobacteriosis in the period 2001-2007. In Iceland, there was a decreasing trend for campylobacteriosis in humans from 1999 to 2007, whilst the broiler trend for Campylobacter was stable from 2001 to 2004, then falling thereafter. In Norway, the human campylobacteriosis trend showed a steady increase throughout the period. On the other hand, the Norwegian broiler trend for Campylobacter showed a decrease from 2001 until 2004, but was thereafter stable. There was no significant decrease or increase in incidence for human campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands, and the trend for Campylobacter in broilers was close to stable. The seasonality seen in broiler and human closely follows the temperature, and was probably caused, at least partly, by temperature related factors.