BISAP, RANSON, lactate and others biomarkers in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis in a European cohort

Early prediction of acute gallstone pancreatitis severity: a novel machine learning model based on CT features and open access online prediction platform

BACKGROUND

Early diagnosis of acute gallstone pancreatitis severity (GSP) is challenging in clinical practice. We aimed to investigate the efficacy of CT features and radiomics for the early prediction of acute GSP severity.

METHODS

We retrospectively recruited GSP patients who underwent CT imaging within 48 h of admission from tertiary referral centre. Radiomics and CT features were extracted from CT scans. The clinical and CT features were selected by the random forest algorithm to develop the ML GSP model for the identification of severity of GSP (mild or severe), and its predictive efficacy was compared with radiomics model. The predictive performance was assessed by the area under operating characteristic curve. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis were performed to demonstrate the classification performance and clinical efficacy. Furthermore, we built a web-based open access GSP severity calculator. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05498961).

RESULTS

A total of 301 patients were enrolled. They were randomly assigned into the training (n = 210) and validation (n = 91) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The random forest algorithm identified the level of calcium ions, WBC count, urea level, combined cholecystitis, gallbladder wall thickening, gallstones, and hydrothorax as the seven predictive factors for severity of GSP. In the validation cohort, the areas under the curve for the radiomics model and ML GSP model were 0.841 (0.757-0.926) and 0.914 (0.851-0.978), respectively. The calibration plot shows that the ML GSP model has good consistency between the prediction probability and the observation probability. Decision curve analysis showed that the ML GSP model had high clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

We built the ML GSP model based on clinical and CT image features and distributed it as a free web-based calculator. Our results indicated that the ML GSP model is useful for predicting the severity of GSP.

Usefulness of Dynamic Assessment of Clinical and Laboratory Factors in Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background/Objectives: Early identification of patients at risk of developing severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is still an issue. Dynamic assessment of clinical and laboratory parameters within the first 48 h of admission may offer valuable insights into the prediction of unfavorable outcomes such as SAP and death. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted on a cohort of patients admitted for AP at a tertiary referral hospital. Clinical and laboratory data were collected on admission and at 48 h. Patients were classified based on the Revised Atlanta classification. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for SAP. Likelihood ratios and post-test probabilities were calculated to assess the clinical usefulness of predictive markers. Results: 227 patients were included, with biliary etiology being the most common and a prevalence of SAP and death of 10.7% and 5.7%, respectively. BISAP ≥ 2 on admission, presence of SIRS after 48 h, rise in heart rate over 20 bpm, and any increase in BUN after 48 h were independent risk factors for SAP. The combination of these factors increased the post-test probability of SAP and death, with BISAP ≥ 2 combined with the presence of SIRS after 48 h showing the highest probability (82% and 73%, respectively). Conclusions: Dynamic assessment of BUN, heart rate, and SIRS within the first 48 h of admission can aid in predicting the development of SAP and death in patients with AP. These findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring, although multicenter studies are warranted to refine predictive models for SAP.

Comparison of Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis and Emergency Department SpO2, Age and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Scores in Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

As the mortality of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is significantly higher than those with mild or moderate severity, it is of clinical significance to identify patients most likely to develop SAP at the time of emergency department (ED) presentation.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to compare the performance of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and the Emergency Department SpO2, Age and SIRS (ED-SAS) scoring systems as early risk assessment tools for identifying patients at high-risk of developing SAP.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed adult patients with AP presented to ED between January 2019-September 2022. We calculated the scores of each patient with the parameters of the initial data. The primary outcome was SAP. The secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality, intensive care admission, and identifying low-risk patients without complications.

RESULTS

Of 415 patients, 34 (8.2%) developed SAP and 15 (3.6%) died. With regard to predicting SAP, BISAP and ED-SAS scores had similar discriminative ability with area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.80-0.88) and 0.83 (95% CI:0.79-0.86), respectively (p = 0.642). At a cut-off score of ≥2 for SAP, sensitivity/specificity values were 73.5%/82.4% for BISAP, 76.5%/83.2% for ED-SAS. BISAP and ED-SAS scores of ≥3, yielded sensitivity/specificity values of 50%/95.8% and 35.3%/95.5%, respectively. BISAP and ED-SAS were also similar in predicting mortality (AUCs of 0.92 vs. 0.90, respectively) and intensive care unit admission (AUCs 0.91 vs. 0.91).

CONCLUSION

The BISAP and ED-SAS scores performed similarly in predicting SAP, mortality, and intensive care unit admission. As an easily calculated tool early in the ED, ED-SAS may be helpful in disposition decisions for emergency physicians.

Serum Lactate Is an Indicator for Short-Term and Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Serum lactate, as a single and an easily available biomarker, has been applied in various diseases.

AIMS

In this study, we aimed to explore the predictive value of serum lactate for short-term and long-term prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP) admitted in intensive care unit (ICU) based on a large-scale database.

METHODS

AP patients admitted in ICU in the MIMIC-IV database were included. We constructed three different models to investigate the relationships between serum lactate and clinical outcomes, including 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality in AP. Smooth fitting curves were performed for intuitively demonstrating the relationship between serum lactate and different outcomes in AP by the generalized additive model.

RESULTS

A total of 895 AP patients admitted in ICU were included. The mortalities of 30 days, 180 days, and 1 year were 12.63% (n = 113), 16.87% (n = 151), and 17.54% (n = 157). In model B, with 1-mmol/L increment in serum lactate, the values of OR in 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality were 1.20 (95%CI 1.04-1.37, P = 0.0094), 1.21 (95%CI 1.06-1.37, P = 0.0039), and 1.21 (95%CI 1.07-1.38, P = 0.0035). The AUCs of serum lactate for predicting 30-day, 180-day, and 1-year mortality in AP were 0.688 (95%CI 0.633-0.743), 0.655 (95%CI 0.605-0.705), and 0.653 (95%CI 0.603-0.701), respectively. The cut-off value of serum lactate predicting 30-day, 180-day and 1-year mortality in AP was 2.4 mmol/L.

CONCLUSION

Serum lactate could be an indicator for short-term and long-term mortality in patients with AP admitted in ICU.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Severity of the First Episode of Hyperlipidemic Acute Pancreatitis

Purpose

Early detection of hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP) with exacerbation tendency is crucial for clinical decision-making and improving prognosis. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable model for the early prediction of HLAP severity.

Patients and Methods

A total of 225 patients with first-episode HLAP who were admitted to Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from June 2012 to June 2023 were included. Patients were divided into mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) or moderate-severe acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP+SAP) groups. Independent predictors for progression to MSAP or SAP were identified through univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. A nomogram was established through multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict this progression. The calibration, receiver operating characteristic(ROC), and clinical decision curves were employed to evaluate the model's consistency, differentiation, and clinical applicability. Clinical data of 93 patients with first-episode HLAP who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University from October 2015 to October 2022 were collected for external validation.

Results

White blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, serum creatinine, serum calcium, D-Dimer were identified as independent predictors for progression to MSAP or SAP in patients with HLAP and used to establish a predictive nomogram. The internally verified Harrell consistency index (C-index) was 0.908 (95% CI 0.867-0.948) and the externally verified C-index was 0.950 (95% CI 0.910-0.990). The calibration, ROC, and clinical decision curves showed this nomogram's good predictive ability.

Conclusion

We have established a nomogram that can help identify HLAP patients who are likely to develop MSAP or SAP at an early stage, with high discrimination and accuracy.

Predictive value of the Ranson and BISAP scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To systematically assess and compare the predictive value of the Ranson and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were systematically searched until February 15, 2023. Outcomes in this analysis included severity and prognosis [mortality, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission]. The revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool was used to evaluate the quality of diagnostic accuracy studies. The threshold effect was evaluated for each outcome. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) as well as 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The DeLong test was used for AUC comparisons. For the outcome evaluated by over 9 studies, publication bias was assessed using the Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test.

RESULTS

Totally 17 studies of 5476 AP patients were included. For severity, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.98) and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.92); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.74 (0.52, 0.88) and 0.95 (95%CI: 0.85, 0.98); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.93, 0.97) and 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92, 0.96) (P = 0.480). For mortality, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.96) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.58, 0.89); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.68, 0.87) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.86, 0.93); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88, 0.93) and 0.92 (95%CI: 0.90, 0.94) (P = 0.480). For organ failure, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76, 0.90) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.60, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.63, 0.94) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.97); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82, 0.88) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.93) (P = 0.110). For pancreatic necrosis, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.63 (95%CI: 0.35, 0.84) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.90 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.89, 0.96); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.87 (95%CI: 0.84, 0.90) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.91, 0.95) (P = 0.001). For ICU admission, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.92) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52, 0.73); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.55, 0.61) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.81, 0.86); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.92 (95%CI: 0.81, 1.00) and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.67, 1.00) (P = 0.592).

CONCLUSION

The Ranson score was an applicable tool for predicting severity and prognosis of AP patients with reliable diagnostic accuracy in resource and time-limited settings. Future large-scale studies are needed to verify the findings.

Neutrophil-Creatinine Index: A New Prognostic Factor for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Background and Objectives: Determining the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) is the main goal in the early stage of AP. The aim of this study was to compare laboratory parameters and indices, including the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the neutrophil-creatinine index (NCI), at admission in order to predict the severity of AP. Materials and Methods: Data from 421 patients who were admitted with a diagnosis of AP were collected retrospectively. Disease severity was assessed using the Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and the revised Atlanta classification (RAC). BISAP was graded as mild and severe, and RAC was graded as mild (MAP), moderately severe (MSAP), and severe (SAP). The laboratory parameters and indices, including the NLR and NCI, were compared. Results: Of the patients, 70 (16.6%) had severe AP according to BISAP; the AP subgroups according to the RAC were as follows: MAP (n = 213), MSAP (n = 158), and SAP (n = 50). The NCI had the highest area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve value (0.862), demonstrating severe disease according to BISAP, with a sensitivity of 78.6% and a specificity of 79.8%. Age (OR:1.046), white blood cell count (WBC) (OR:1.141), hematocrit (OR:1.081), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR:1.040), and NCI (OR:1.076) were independently associated with severe disease, according to the multivariate analysis results, and were determined as components of the newly developed nomogram. The AUROC of the nomogram (0.891) was superior to the AUROCs of all the components of the nomogram except the NCI. Moreover, the NCI was the only parameter to distinguish MSAP from MAP (OR:1.119, 95% CI: 1.015-1.235, p = 0.023) and SAP from MSAP (OR:1.095, 95% CI: 1.031-1.162, p = 0.003). Conclusions: The present study enabled the identification of the neutrophil-creatinine index as a new prognostic tool for the assessment of AP severity at hospital admission.

American College of Gastroenterology Guidelines: Management of Acute Pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP), defined as acute inflammation of the pancreas, is one of the most common diseases of the gastrointestinal tract leading to hospital admission in the United States. It is important for clinicians to appreciate that AP is heterogenous, progressing differently among patients and is often unpredictable. While most patients experience symptoms lasting a few days, almost one-fifth of patients will go on to experience complications, including pancreatic necrosis and/or organ failure, at times requiring prolonged hospitalization, intensive care, and radiologic, surgical, and/or endoscopic intervention. Early management is essential to identify and treat patients with AP to prevent complications. Patients with biliary pancreatitis typically will require surgery to prevent recurrent disease and may need early endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography if the disease is complicated by cholangitis. Nutrition plays an important role in treating patients with AP. The safety of early refeeding and importance in preventing complications from AP are addressed. This guideline will provide an evidence-based practical approach to the management of patients with AP.

Hospital mortality rate and predictors in acute pancreatitis in Poland: A single-center experience

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in medicine, acute pancreatitis remains a disorder that is associated with a high mortality rate. The objective of this study was to analyze in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A prospective analysis of patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis in a single surgical center was performed. Etiological factors, concomitant diseases, age, and intensive care unit treatment status were assessed to determine their impact on the cause and time of patient death. In addition, conventional laboratory tests performed in the emergency ward were evaluated for their potential as predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

The study included 476 (n) patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis in a single surgical center. The presentations included mild disease in 261 (54.8%) patients, moderate disease in 132 (27.7%) patients, and severe disease in 83 (17.5%) patients. The overall mortality rate was 7.14% (n = 34), including 41% in the severe disease group. The mean and median hospitalization times for these patients were 13.9 and 7 days, respectively. Respiratory failure is the main cause of patient death.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute pancreatitis remains one of the most common gastroenterological diseases that may lead to death. Acute pancreatitis-related respiratory failure is the most common cause of death among patients with alcohol etiology of the disease. Moreover, the mortality rate was higher among older patients. Therefore, actions should be taken to discover prognostic factors of the severe form and initiate appropriate treatment.

Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment

BACKGROUND

Scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP.

METHODS

Following PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned.

RESULTS

43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

The most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making.

Diagnosis and Contemporary Management of Necrotizing Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is a common diagnosis which requires a prompt diagnosis and management by a multidisciplinary team with often general surgeons as the initial provider. Morbidity and mortality from an acute pancreatitis can be very high, especially in patients with a progressive worsening acute pancreatitis developing into pancreatic necrosis in the setting of multiple underlying medical comorbidities.

PURPOSE

In this review paper, we discuss all aspects of acute pancreatitis and its potential complications, as well providing updates in the modern management of necrotizing pancreatitis. Practicing general surgeons need to be aware of the evolution in the diagnosis and treatment of this disease.

RESEARCH DESIGN

We conducted a review of literature of evidence and management options for acute pancreatitis, including all published manuscripts from 2012 to 2022.

RESULTS

Diagnosis and management of this disease can vary among specialiaties. The decision to utilize a percutaneous or endoscopic techniques are relevant points of discussion within general surgery and gastroenterology societies. In the past decade, the use of advanced endoscopic interventions has slowly replaced conventional open surgery in managing complications of acute severe pancreatitis.

CONCLUSION

Acute pancreatitis is a disease which requires multidisciplinary approach with evolving treatment options to less invasive nonsurgical methods.

Acute pancreatitis: A review of diagnosis, severity prediction and prognosis assessment from imaging technology, scoring system and artificial intelligence

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas, with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease. Diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP typically involve the use of imaging technologies, such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and ultrasound, and scoring systems, including Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and Bedside Index for Severity in AP scores. Computed tomography is considered the gold standard imaging modality for AP due to its high sensitivity and specificity, while magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound can provide additional information on biliary obstruction and vascular complications. Scoring systems utilize clinical and laboratory parameters to classify AP patients into mild, moderate, or severe categories, guiding treatment decisions, such as intensive care unit admission, early enteral feeding, and antibiotic use. Despite the central role of imaging technologies and scoring systems in AP management, these methods have limitations in terms of accuracy, reproducibility, practicality and economics. Recent advancements of artificial intelligence (AI) provide new opportunities to enhance their performance by analyzing vast amounts of clinical and imaging data. AI algorithms can analyze large amounts of clinical and imaging data, identify scoring system patterns, and predict the clinical course of disease. AI-based models have shown promising results in predicting the severity and mortality of AP, but further validation and standardization are required before widespread clinical application. In addition, understanding the correlation between these three technologies will aid in developing new methods that can accurately, sensitively, and specifically be used in the diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP through complementary advantages.

Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can progress to lung and kidney dysfunction, and blood clotting within 48 hours of its onset, and is associated with a high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable diagnostic prediction model for the early stage of severe pancreatitis.

Methods

The clinical data of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from October 2017 to June 2022 at the Shangluo Central Hospital were collected. The risk factors were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. A novel nomogram model was then established by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

The data of 436 patients with acute pancreatitis, 45 (10.3%) patients had progressed to SAP. Through univariate and LASSO regression analyses, the neutrophils (P <0.001), albumin (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P < 0.001), serum calcium (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.001) and procalcitonin (P = 0.005) were identified as independent predictive factors for SAP. The nomogram built on the basis of these factors predicted SAP with sensitivity of 0.733, specificity of 0.9, positive predictive value of 0.458 and negative predictive value of 0.967. Furthermore, the concordance index of the nomogram reached 0.889 (95% CI, 0.837-0.941), and the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was significantly higher than that of the APACHEII and ABISAP scoring systems. The established model was validated by plotting the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Conclusion

We established a nomogram to predict the progression of early acute pancreatitis to SAP with high discrimination and accuracy.

Albumin Corrected Anion Gap and the Risk of in-Hospital Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Purpose

To explore the prognostic value of albumin corrected anion gap (ACAG) within 24 hours of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) for acute pancreatitis (AP).

Patients and Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study. Adult AP patients admitted to ICU from June 2016 to December 2019 were included in the study, who were divided into three groups according to initial serum ACAG within 24 hours upon ICU admission: ACAG ≤ 14.87 mmol/L, 14.87 < ACAG ≤ 19.03 mmol/L, and ACAG > 19.03 mmol/L. The primary study outcome indicator was in-hospital mortality. Age, sex, Glasgow Coma Scale score, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score were matched through propensity score matching (PSM) method to balance the baseline between the survivors and non-survivors. Multivariate Cox regression was used to determine the relationship between ACAG and in-hospital mortality.

Results

A total of 344 patients (of them 81 non-survivors) were analyzed in this study. Patients with higher ACAG intended to present significantly higher in-hospital mortality, APACHE II score, creatine, lower albumin, and bicarbonate. Multivariate Cox regression analysis after matching demonstrated that white blood cell count, platelet count, and higher ACAG were independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality (ACAG ≤ 14.87 as a reference, 14.87 < ACAG ≤ 19.03 mmol/L with HR of 2.34 and 95% CI of 1.15-4.76, ACAG >19.03 with HR of 3.46 and 95% CI of 1.75-6.84).

Conclusion

Higher ACAG was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality in patients with AP after matching the baseline between the survivors and non-survivors.

Development and evaluation of machine learning models and nomogram for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in patients progresses rapidly and can cause multiple organ failures associated with high mortality. We aimed to train a machine learning (ML) model and establish a nomogram that could identify SAP, early in the course of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

In this retrospective study, 631 patients with AP were enrolled in the training cohort. For predicting SAP early, five supervised ML models were employed, such as random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and naive Bayes (NB), which were evaluated by accuracy (ACC) and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The nomogram was established, and the predictive ability was assessed by the calibration curve and AUC. They were externally validated by an independent cohort of 109 patients with AP.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, the AUC of RF, KNN, and NB models were 0.969, 0.954, and 0.951, respectively, while the AUC of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson and Glasgow scores were only 0.796, 0.847, and 0.837, respectively. In the validation cohort, the RF model also showed the highest AUC, which was 0.961. The AUC for the nomogram was 0.888 and 0.955 in the training and validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggested that the RF model exhibited the best predictive performance, and the nomogram provided a visual scoring model for clinical practice. Our models may serve as practical tools for facilitating personalized treatment options and improving clinical outcomes through pre-treatment stratification of patients with AP.

To Establish an Early Prediction Model for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Severe Acute Pancreatitis Using Machine Learning Algorithm

OBJECTIVE

To develop binary and quaternary classification prediction models in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) using machine learning methods, so that doctors can evaluate the risk of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and severe ARDS at an early stage.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on SAP patients hospitalized in our hospital from August 2017 to August 2022. Logical Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) were used to build the binary classification prediction model of ARDS. Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) values were used to interpret the machine learning model, and the model was optimized according to the interpretability results of SHAP values. Combined with the optimized characteristic variables, four-class classification models, including RF, SVM, DT, XGB, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), were constructed to predict mild, moderate, and severe ARDS, and the prediction effects of each model were compared.

RESULTS

The XGB model showed the best effect (AUC = 0.84) in the prediction of binary classification (ARDS or non-ARDS). According to SHAP values, the prediction model of ARDS severity was constructed with four characteristic variables (PaO₂/FiO₂, APACHE II, SOFA, AMY). Among them, the overall prediction accuracy of ANN is 86%, which is the best.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning has a good effect in predicting the occurrence and severity of ARDS in SAP patients. It can also provide a valuable tool for doctors to make clinical decisions.

Prognostic Value of Arterial Lactate Metabolic Clearance Rate in Moderate and Severe Acute Pancreatitis

PURPOSE

High lactate levels at hospital admission are significantly associated with poor prognosis in acute pancreatitis patients. Early high lactate clearance is a vital marker for predicting persistent organ failure and mortality in critical illness; however, its value in acute pancreatitis remains unclear.

METHOD

Data were collected from patients who were diagnosed with moderately severe acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis from January 2017 to December 2020. Initial lactate (within 2 hours after admission) and repeat lactate at 24 hours after admission were measured to determine lactate clearance. Low clearance was defined as a reduction in repeat lactate of less than 30% compared to the first measurement. High clearance was defined as a repeat lactate decrease ≥30% of the first measurement or both first and second lactate levels <2 mmol/L. Baseline data, laboratory data, mortality rate, persistent organ failure rate, and other outcomes such as the incidence of septic pancreatic necrosis and sepsis and the length of hospital stay and intensive care unit (ICU) stay were compared in the low and high lactate clearance groups. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the value of lactate clearance for predicting death.

RESULT

Among 4425 acute pancreatitis patients, 3040 patients were diagnosed with moderate or severe acute pancreatitis, and 1028 patients had initial lactate measured. Finally, 390 patients who had initial and 24-hour repeat lactate data were included in the study. Patients who had elevated initial lactate had poor outcomes, and 51 patients in the initial elevated lactate group died. In the lactate normalization group analysis, 293 patients had 24-hour lactate normalization; compared with patients in the nonnormalization group, they had a lower rate of mortality (12.6% vs. 33%). In the lactate clearance group analysis, 70 (21.9%) patients had a low clearance after 24 hours; compared with patients in the high clearance group, they had a higher rate of developing persistent multiorgan failure (P = 0.045), and the incidence of death was higher (15% vs. 28.6%, P = 0.007). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that 24-hour lactate clearance (OR: 2.007; 95% CI:1.032-3.903, P = 0.04), elevated initial lactate (OR: 2.011; 95% CI:1.023-3.953, P = 0.043), blood urea nitrogen (OR: 2.316; 95% CI:1.061-5.056, P = 0.035), and white blood count (OR: 1.982; 95% CI:1.026-3.829, P = 0.042) were independent predictors of hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

The 24-hour clearance of lactate is a reliable marker to predict the outcome of moderate and severe acute pancreatitis, and low lactate clearance may indicate that the patient's condition will worsen, requiring aggressive treatments to improve patient outcomes.

Combination of the BISAP Score and miR-155 is Applied in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Purpose

To evaluate the predictive value of combination of Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP) score and miR-155 for the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

Patients and Methods

A total of 1046 AP patients were divided into control group and case group according to the severity of AP [mild and moderately severe AP vs severe AP (SAP)]. Demographic data, comorbidities, clinical characteristics and laboratory data were collected. Multivariate analysis was conducted for the variables with two-sided P<0.10 in univariate analysis to identify independent associated factors for progression to SAP in AP patients. The predictive values were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the area under curve (AUC) was compared using Z test.

Results

A total of 117 (11.2%) patients were evaluated as SAP. Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in age, hypertension, ICU admission, hospital stay, Leukocytes, CRP, BUN, BISAP score and miR-155 between case group and control group (P<0.05), and the P value of Fibrinogen was <0.10. Multivariate analysis showed that the BISAP score, BUN, Leukocytes, age and CRP were independent risk factors for progression to SAP among AP patients after adjusting for hypertension, ICU admission, hospital stay and Fibrinogen, while miR-155 was a protective factor. The ROC curves demonstrated the AUCs of BISAP score, miR-155 and their combination were 0.842 (SE: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.809–0.874), 0.751 (SE: 0.022, 95% CI: 0.708–0.793) and 0.945 (SE: 0.007, 95% CI: 0.931–0.959), respectively. Z test showed that the AUC of combination prediction was significantly higher than that of individual predictions (0.945 vs 0.842, Z=5.602, P<0.001; 0.945 vs 0.751, Z=8.403, P<0.001). The sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value (NPV) of combination prediction were 95.7%, 93.6% and 99.4%, respectively.

Conclusion

The combination of the BISAP score and miR-155 should be utilized to elevate the predictive value for the severity of AP in clinic.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute Pancreatitis

The pancreas is a glandular organ that is responsible for the proper functioning of the digestive and endocrine systems, and therefore, it affects the condition of the entire body. Consequently, it is important to effectively diagnose and treat diseases of this organ. According to clinicians, pancreatitis—a common disease affecting the pancreas—is one of the most complicated and demanding diseases of the abdomen. The classification of pancreatitis is based on clinical, morphologic, and histologic criteria. Medical doctors distinguish, inter alia, acute pancreatitis (AP), the most common causes of which are gallstone migration and alcohol abuse. Effective diagnostic methods and the correct assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis determine the selection of an appropriate treatment strategy and the prediction of the clinical course of the disease, thus preventing life-threatening complications and organ dysfunction or failure. This review collects and organizes recommendations and guidelines for the management of patients suffering from acute pancreatitis.

Role of Pancreatic Stone Protein as an Early Biomarker for Risk Stratification of Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Early risk stratification of acute pancreatitis is crucial to improve clinical outcomes. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of pancreatic stone protein (PSP) to predict acute pancreatitis severity and to compare it with the biomarkers and severity scores currently used for that purpose.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Prospective single-center observational study enrolling 268 adult patients with acute pancreatitis. Biomarkers including PSP were measured upon admission to the Emergency Department and severity scores as SOFA, PANC-3, and BISAP were computed. Patients were classified into mild-moderate (non-severe) and severe acute pancreatitis according to the Determinant-Based Classification Criteria. Area under the curve (AUC) and regression analysis were used to analyze the discrimination abilities and the association of biomarkers and scores with severity.

RESULTS

Two hundred and thirty-five patients (87.7%) were classified as non-severe and 33 (12.3%) as severe acute pancreatitis. Median [IQR] PSP was increased in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (890 μg/L [559-1142] vs. 279 μg/L [141-496]; p < 0.001) and it was the best predictor (ROC AUC: 0.827). In multivariate analysis, PSP and urea were the only independent predictors for severe acute pancreatitis and a model combining them both ("biomarker model") showed an AUC of 0.841 for prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, higher than the other severity scores.

CONCLUSIONS

PSP is a promising biomarker for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis upon admission. A model combining PSP and urea might further constitute a potential tool for early risk stratification of this disease.

Effect of Early Continuous Veno-Venous Haemofiltration in Severe Acute Pancreatitis for the Prevention of Local Pancreatic Complications

Objective

To compare the conventional treatment and continuous veno-venous haemofiltration (CVVH) in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) for the prevention of pseudocyst and walled-off necrosis. Patients and Methods. Forty-two patients were divided into two treatment groups: conventional treatment group contained 24 patients and CVVH had 18. Conventional treatment group patients were treated symptomatically and according to the causes. CVVH group patients were treated symptomatically, and CVVH was done within 2 hours of admission.

Results

In both groups, there was a decrease in amylase, lipase, CRP, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-alpha, Ranson score, Balthazar score, and APACHE-II score after 72 hours, but the decrease was significantly greater in CVVH patients. There were no any local pancreatic complications in CVVH patients, but 1 patient had an acute peripancreatic fluid collection, 2 patients had pseudocyst, and 2 patients had walled-off necrosis (WON), and a mortality one was seen in the conventional treatment group.

Conclusion

The present study shows that early CVVH may be able to prevent the formation of pseudocyst and win in SAP patients.

Development of a Score for Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis at Admission

OBJECTIVES

The identification of patients at risk of developing a severe form of acute pancreatitis is a major issue. The goal of this study was to identify parameters at admission associated with severe pancreatitis to develop a predictive severity score.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study at Caen University Hospital between January 2014 and December 2017, including 504 patients hospitalized for acute pancreatitis, of whom 74 had a severe form. We developed a predictive score named Admission Severe Acute Pancreatitis (ASAP) score based on parameters associated with a severe form in multivariate analysis. We validated our score in an independent validation cohort of 80 patients.

RESULTS

Hypothermia, low oxygen saturation or albumin levels, and high creatinine levels were significantly associated with severe pancreatitis. The ASAP score showed notable predictive accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic, 0.82), which was significantly higher than Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, persistent Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, and Balthazar. Using the -2.1742 threshold, the ASAP score had a sensitivity and specificity of 74% and a negative predictive value of 95%. These predictive performances for ASAP score were confirmed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The ASAP score demonstrates remarkable predictive accuracy in distinguishing severe forms of acute pancreatitis.

Predictive value of arterial blood lactic acid concentration on the risk of all-cause death within 28 days of admission in patients with severe acute pancreatitis

ObjectiveTo evaluate the ability of arterial blood lactic acid concentration to predict death within 28 days of admission of patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in the intensive care unit (ICU).MethodsClinical data of 523 SAP patients in the MIMIC-IV database were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into those who survived (n=461) and those who died (n=62) within 28 days of admission. The association between lactic acid concentration and all-cause death in SAP patients was determined by Cox regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and subgroup analysis. The ability of lactic acid concentration to predict the risk of all-cause death in SAP patients was determined by time-dependent receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis.ResultsArterial blood lactic acid concentration was significantly higher in the 62 patients who died within 28 days than in the 461 patients who survived (P <0.05). Adjusted multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that lactic acid concentration was a significant independent predictor on all-cause mortality within 28 days of admission for SAP (hazard ratio=1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.36, P <0.001), as did time-dependent ROC analysis (area under the ROC curve=0.741). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the rate of all-cause mortality within 28 days of admission was significantly higher in patients with high than low lactic acid concentration (P <0.0001). Subgroup analysis showed that there was no significant interaction between lactic acid concentration and other factors with all-cause death within 28 days of admission (all P >0.05).ConclusionArterial blood lactic acid concentration is an important independent predictor of all-cause mortality within 28 days of admission of SAP patients in the ICU.

Usefulness of Random Forest Algorithm in Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to develop an interpretable random forest model for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

Clinical and laboratory data of 648 patients with acute pancreatitis were retrospectively reviewed and randomly assigned to the training set and test set in a 3:1 ratio. Univariate analysis was used to select candidate predictors for the SAP. Random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) models were developed on the training sample. The prediction models were then applied to the test sample. The performance of the risk models was measured by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) and area under precision recall curve. We provide visualized interpretation by using local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME).

RESULTS

The LR model was developed to predict SAP as the following function: -1.10-0.13×albumin (g/L) + 0.016 × serum creatinine (μmol/L) + 0.14 × glucose (mmol/L) + 1.63 × pleural effusion (0/1)(No/Yes). The coefficients of this formula were utilized to build a nomogram. The RF model consists of 16 variables identified by univariate analysis. It was developed and validated by a tenfold cross-validation on the training sample. Variables importance analysis suggested that blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, albumin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, calcium, and glucose were the most important seven predictors of SAP. The AUCs of RF model in tenfold cross-validation of the training set and the test set was 0.89 and 0.96, respectively. Both the area under precision recall curve and the diagnostic accuracy of the RF model were higher than that of both the LR model and the BISAP score. LIME plots were used to explain individualized prediction of the RF model.

CONCLUSIONS

An interpretable RF model exhibited the highest discriminatory performance in predicting SAP. Interpretation with LIME plots could be useful for individualized prediction in a clinical setting. A nomogram consisting of albumin, serum creatinine, glucose, and pleural effusion was useful for prediction of SAP.

Sequential organ failure assessment score is superior to other prognostic indices in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common surgical condition, with severe AP (SAP) potentially lethal. Many prognostic indices, including; acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score (APACHE II), bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Glasgow score, harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS), Ranson's score, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) evaluate AP severity and predict mortality.

AIM

To evaluate these indices' utility in predicting severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 653 patients with AP from July 2009 to September 2016 was performed. The demographic, clinical profile, and patient outcomes were collected. SAP was defined as per the revised Atlanta classification. Values for APACHE II score, BISAP, HAPS, and SOFA within 24 h of admission were retrospectively obtained based on laboratory results and patient evaluation recorded on a secure hospital-based online electronic platform. Data with < 10% missing data was imputed via mean substitution. Other patient information such as demographics, disease etiology, and patient outcomes were also derived from electronic medical records.

RESULTS

The mean age was 58.7 ± 17.5 years, with 58.7% males. Gallstones (n = 404, 61.9%), alcohol (n = 38, 5.8%), and hypertriglyceridemia (n = 19, 2.9%) were more common aetiologies. 81 (12.4%) patients developed SAP, 20 (3.1%) required ICU admission, and 12 (1.8%) deaths were attributed to SAP. Ranson's score and APACHE-II demonstrated the highest sensitivity in predicting SAP (92.6%, 80.2% respectively), ICU admission (100%), and mortality (100%). While SOFA and BISAP demonstrated lowest sensitivity in predicting SAP (13.6%, 24.7% respectively), ICU admission (40.0%, 25.0% respectively) and mortality (50.0%, 25.5% respectively). However, SOFA demonstrated the highest specificity in predicting SAP (99.7%), ICU admission (99.2%), and mortality (98.9%). SOFA demonstrated the highest positive predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio, and overall accuracy in predicting SAP, ICU admission, and mortality. SOFA and Ranson's score demonstrated the highest area under receiver-operator curves at 48 h in predicting SAP (0.966, 0.857 respectively), ICU admission (0.943, 0.946 respectively), and mortality (0.968, 0.917 respectively).

CONCLUSION

The SOFA and 48-h Ranson's scores accurately predict severity, ICU admission, and mortality in AP, with more favorable statistics for the SOFA score.

Prevalence and impact of acute kidney injury in hospitalized pediatric patients with acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) in pediatric patients is rising with accompanying increased hospitalizations. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with worse clinical outcomes in adults, and similar data in the pediatric age group is limited.

METHODS

We analyzed non-overlapping years of National Inpatient Sample (NIS) and Kids Inpatient Database (KID) to include all patients less than 21 years old with primary diagnosis of AP between 2003 and 2016. Patients with concomitant diagnosis of AKI were compared with patients without AKI for demographics, comorbid/etiologic conditions, procedures, complications, and mortality. Length of stay and inflation-adjusted hospitalization charges were used to compare health care resource utilization.

RESULTS

In total, 123,185 AP-related hospitalizations were analyzed. Overall prevalence of AKI among AP patients was 1.5% during the study period. The prevalence rate of AKI increased almost five-fold from 0.6% (2003) to a peak rate of 2.9% (2016), P < 0.001. Patients with AKI were older, more often male and had either more systemic diseases or chronic comorbid conditions such as malignancies, systemic lupus erythematosus, solid organ transplantation, hypertriglyceridemia, and hypercalcemia. Multivariate analysis demonstrated AP-related hospitalizations with AKI were 1.97 (CI 1.27-3.08, P < 0.001) times more likely to be associated with in-hospital mortality and contributed to 4.3 additional days of hospitalization (CI 4.02-4.6, P < 0.001), also incurring an additional $51,830 (CI 48571-55088, P < 0.001) in hospital charges.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of AKI is increasing steadily among pediatric patients with AP and is associated with increased risk of mortality and higher health care resource expenditure.

Nomogram for the prediction of in-hospital incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) associated with high mortality is the common complication in acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study was to formulate and validate an individualized predictive nomogram for in-hospital incidence of ARDS in Patients with AP.

METHOD

From January 2017 to December 2018, 779 individuals with AP were involved in this study. They were randomly distributed into primary cohort (n=560) and validation cohort (n=219). Based on the primary cohort, risk factors were identified by logistic regression model and a nomogram was performed. The nomogram was validated in the primary and validation cohort by the bootstrap validation method. The calibration curve was applied to evaluate the consistency between the nomogram and the ideal observation.

RESULTS

There were 728 patients in the non-ARDS group and 51 in the ARDS group, with an incidence of about 6.55%. Five independent factors including white blood cell counts (WBC), prothrombin time (PT), albumin (ALB), serum creatinine (SCR) and triglyceride (TG) were associated with in-hospital incidence of ARDS in Patients with AP. A nomogram was constructed based on the five independent factors with primary cohort of AUC=0.821 and validation cohort of AUC=0.823. Calibration curve analysis indicated that the predicted probability was in accordance with the observed probability in both primary and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The study developed an intuitive nomogram with easily available laboratory parameters for the prediction of in-hospital incidence of ARDS in patients with AP. The incidence of ARDS for an individual patient can be fast and conveniently evaluated by our nomogram.

Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis following Long-Term Antipsychotic Use

Introduction. Psychiatrists commonly use antipsychotic medications in the treatment of psychotic and mood disorders. A rare but known side effect of atypical antipsychotics is acute pancreatitis. Most cases of antipsychotic-induced pancreatitis occur within six months of initiation. The mechanism believed to cause this reaction is hypertriglyceridemia. Here, we present a unique case of antipsychotic-induced pancreatitis that deviates from previous cases in the time to onset of the pancreatitis and the mechanism of presentation. Case Presentation. We present a case of a patient with treatment-resistant schizophrenia managed for over a decade on olanzapine and haloperidol. Twelve years after stabilization on this medication regimen, the patient developed acute pancreatitis, which after extensive medical workup was attributed to his psychotropic medications. We review his medical and psychiatric history, his medical course and workup during the episode of pancreatitis, and review recommendations for patients at risk for antipsychotic-induced pancreatitis based on this case and the current literature. Discussion. This case illustrates that acute pancreatitis can occur long after the initiation of antipsychotic medications and may be mediated by mechanisms other than hypertriglyceridemia. While there are reports of antipsychotic-induced psychosis occurring within months, and in a limited set of cases, years, after medication initiation, the twelve-year time interval in the present case is by far the longest duration of an antipsychotic precipitating this adverse event recorded in the literature. This case highlights that although exceedingly rare, prescribers should be aware of the risk for drug-induced pancreatitis in patients stable on antipsychotic medications.

Early Changes in Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN) Can Predict Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: Comparative Study between BISAP Score, APACHE-II, and Other Laboratory Markers-A Prospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Changes in BUN have been proposed as a risk factor for complications in acute pancreatitis (AP). Our study aimed to compare changes in BUN versus the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II score (APACHE-II), as well as other laboratory tests such as haematocrit and its variations over 24 h and C-reactive protein, in order to determine the most accurate test for predicting mortality and severity outcomes in AP.

METHODS

Clinical data of 410 AP patients, prospectively enrolled for study at our institution, were analyzed. We define AP according to Atlanta classification (AC) 2012. The laboratory test's predictive accuracy was measured using area-under-the-curve receiver-operating characteristics (AUC) analysis and sensitivity and specificity tests.

RESULTS

Rise in BUN was the only score related to mortality on the multivariate analysis (p=0.000, OR: 12.7; CI 95%: 4.2-16.6). On the comparative analysis of AUC, the rise in BUN was an accurate test in predicting mortality (AUC: 0.842) and persisting multiorgan failure (AUC: 0.828), similar to the BISAP score (AUC: 0.836 and 0.850) and APACHE-II (AUC: 0.756 and 0.741). The BISAP score outperformed both APACHE-II and rise in BUN at 24 hours in predicting severe AP (AUC: 0.873 vs. 0.761 and 0.756, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Rise in BUN at 24 hours is a quick and reliable test in predicting mortality and persisting multiorgan failure in AP patients.

An Artificial Neural Networks Model for Early Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis in MIMIC-III

Background

Early and accurate evaluation of severity and prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP), especially at the time of admission is very significant. This study was aimed to develop an artificial neural networks (ANN) model for early prediction of in-hospital mortality in AP.

Methods

Patients with AP were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) database. Clinical and laboratory data were utilized to perform a predictive model by back propagation ANN approach.

Results

A total of 337 patients with AP were analyzed in the study, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 11.2%. A total of 12 variables that differed between patients in survivor group and nonsurvivor group were applied to construct ANN model. Three independent variables were identified as risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.769 for ANN model, 0.607 for logistic regression, 0.652 for Ranson score, and 0.401 for SOFA score.

Conclusion

An ANN predictive model for in-hospital mortality in patients with AP in MIMIC-III database was first performed. The patients with high risk of fatal outcome can be screened out easily in the early stage of AP by our model.

Early prediction of in-hospital mortality in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective observational cohort study based on a large multicentre critical care database

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a prediction model for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

DESIGN

A retrospective observational cohort study based on a large multicentre critical care database.

SETTING

All subject data were collected from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), which covers 200 859 intensive care unit admissions of 139 367 patients in 208 US hospitals between 2014 and 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 746 patients with AP were drawn from eICU-CRD. Due to loss to follow-up (four patients) or incomplete data (364 patients), 378 patients were enrolled in the primary cohort to establish a nomogram model and to conduct internal validation.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The outcome of the prediction model was in-hospital mortality. All risk factors found significant in the univariate analysis were considered for multivariate analysis to adjust for confounding factors. Then a nomogram model was established. The performance of the nomogram model was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and the calibration plot. The nomogram model was internally validated using the bootstrap resampling method. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram model was compared with that of Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate and compare the potential net benefit using of different predictive models.

RESULTS

The overall in-hospital mortality rate is 4.447%. Age, BUN (blood urea nitrogen) and lactate (ABL) were the independent risk factors determined by multivariate analysis. The C-index of nomogram model ABL (0.896 (95% CI 0.825 to 0.967)) was similar to that of APACHE IV (p=0.086), showing a comparable discriminating power. Calibration plot demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and the actual in-hospital mortality. DCA showed that the nomogram model ABL was clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomogram model ABL, which used readily available data, exhibited high predictive value for predicting in-hospital mortality in AP.

Predictive value of serum soluble B7-H4 in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Studies reported that soluble B7-H4 (sB7-H4) was significantly related to the progression and prognosis of inflammatory diseases, and whether sB7-H4 is related to the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) timely has not been reported.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Clinical database data of 446 AP patients were retrospectively collected, and the correlation between the expression serum levels of sB7-H4 with inflammatory factors and prognostic scores was analysed in AP patients.

RESULTS

Soluble B7-H4 was significantly correlated with IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, PCT, CRP levels and WBC count (P < .01), with correlation coefficients of R = .61, .53, .46, .60, .57 and .47, respectively, and AUCs were 0.905, 0.837, 0.797, 0.858, 0.890, 0.841 and 0.855, respectively. In addition, sB7-H4 was significantly correlated with the Ranson score, APACHE II score and BISAP score (P < .001), with correlation coefficients of R = .58, .63 and .59, respectively. The AUCs of assessing local complications of AP were 0.908, 0.863, 0.785 and 0.844, respectively; assessing organ failure were 0.872, 0.790, 0.796 and 0.857, respectively; and assessing in-hospital mortality were 0.839, 0.821, 0.796 and 0.823, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Soluble B7-H4 could be used as a marker for the diagnosis, severity assessment and poor prognosis assessment of AP patients, which may have potential clinical applications.

Who's at Risk? A Prognostic Model for Severity Prediction in Pediatric Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to validate and optimize a severity prediction model for acute pancreatitis (AP) and to examine blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level changes from admission as a severity predictor.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients from 2 hospitals were included for the validation model (Children's Hospital of the King's Daughters and Children's National Hospital). Children's Hospital of the King's Daughters and Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center data were used for analysis of BUN at 24 to 48 hours.

RESULTS

The validation cohort included 73 patients; 22 (30%) with either severe or moderately severe AP, combined into the all severe AP (SAP) group. Patients with SAP had higher BUN (P = 0.002) and lower albumin (P = 0.005). Admission BUN was confirmed as a significant predictor (P = 0.005) of SAP (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.86). Combining BUN (P = 0.005) and albumin (P = 0.004) resulted in better prediction for SAP (AUROC 0.83, 95% CI 0.72-0.94). A total of 176 AP patients were analyzed at 24-48 hours; 39 (22%) met criteria for SAP. Patients who developed SAP had a significantly higher BUN (P < 0.001) after 24 hours. Elevated BUN levels within 24 to 48 hours were independently predictive of developing SAP (AUROC: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.66-0.85). Patients who developed SAP had a significantly smaller percentage decrease in BUN from admission to 24 to 48 hours (P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

We externally validated the prior model with admission BUN levels and further optimized it by incorporating albumin. We also found that persistent elevation of BUN is associated with development of SAP. Our model can be used to risk stratify patients with AP on admission and again at 24 to 48 hours.

Taiwanese consensus recommendations for acute pancreatitis

The incidence of acute pancreatitis and related health care utilization are increasing. Acute pancreatitis may result in organ failure and various local complications with risks of morbidity and even mortality. Recent advances in research have provided novel insights into the assessment and management for acute pancreatitis. This consensus is developed by Taiwan Pancreas Society to provide an updated, evidence-based framework for managing acute pancreatitis.

The relationship between triglyceride level and the severity of acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis in Chinese patients

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the triglyceride (TG) level and the severity of acute hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (AHTGP) in Chinese patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

On the basis of clinical data on AHTGP, patients from the period 2015-2018 were enrolled retrospectively and grouped according to the 2012 revised Atlanta classification. Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to evaluate differences among groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to assess the ability of parameters to distinguish mild acute pancreatitis (MAP)/moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) from severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

RESULTS

A total of 104 patients with AHTGP were enrolled and divided into three groups: 61 patients with MAP, 29 patients with MSAP, and 14 patients with SAP. The median values for the MAP, MSAP, and SAP groups were as follows: TG level 48 h after admission, 3.4, 4.5, and 14.2 mmol/L, respectively (p<0.001); ratio of TG level 48 h after admission to that 0 h after admission (48:0-h ratio), 19.4, 32.1, and 65.9, respectively (p<0.001). ROC curves showed that the areas under the curves for the TG level 48 h after admission and the TG 48:0-h ratio for predicting SAP were 0.965 and 0.917, respectively (p<0.001), and the optimal cut-off values were 7.8 mmol/L and 37.7, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The TG level 48 h after admission and the TG 48:0-h ratio may predict the severity of AHTGP, and a high TG level 48 h after admission may be correlated with the progression of SAP.

Initially elevated arterial lactate as an independent predictor of poor outcomes in severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to investigate the relationships between arterial lactate levels and outcomes in severe acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

The study retrospectively analyzed the medical data of 329 patients with severe acute pancreatitis from January 2014 to February 2019. We compared baseline characteristics, laboratory data, severity scores, types of persistent organ failure, and primary and secondary outcomes of patients with and without elevated arterial lactate levels at admission. A multivariate logistic regression analysis model and receiver operating characteristic curve were adopted to evaluate the value of arterial lactate ≥4 mmol/L for identifying high-risk patients. Trends in arterial lactate levels were compared between patients in the survivor and nonsurvivor groups over a period of 7 days.

RESULTS

Compared to normal arterial lactate levels, patients with elevated arterial lactate levels show significantly higher incidences of multiple persistent organ failure (3% vs 30%, P < 0.01), death (2% vs 11%, P < 0.01), septic shock (4% vs 24%, P < 0.01), pancreatic infection (12% vs 37%, P < 0.01), abdominal compartment syndrome (3% vs 20%, P < 0.01), pancreatic necrosis (41% vs 63%, P < 0.01), and a need for ventilator support (26% vs 54%, P < 0.01). For predicting mortality, arterial lactate levels ≥4 mmol/L had a high hazard ratio (10, 95% CI; 3.7-27; P < 0.01) and the highest area under the curve (0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that initially elevated arterial lactate is independently associated with poor outcomes and death in patients with severe acute pancreatitis and may serve as an early high-risk stratification indicator.

Is aggressive intravenous fluid resuscitation beneficial in acute pancreatitis? A meta-analysis of randomized control trials and cohort studies

BACKGROUND

There is conflincting evidence on the intravenous fluid (IVF) strategy for acute pancreatitis (AP). We perform a metaanalysis of the available evidence.

AIM

To investigate if aggressive IVF therapy in AP patients is beneficial to decrease mortality and improve outcomes.

METHODS

Metaanalysis of available randomized controlled trials and cohort studies comparing aggressive IVF vs non-aggressive IVF resuscitation.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in mortality between the aggressive (n = 1229) and non-aggressive IVF (n = 1397) patients. Patients receiving aggressive IVF therapy had higher risk for acute kidney injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. There also was no significant difference in the overall incidence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, persistent organ failure, pancreatic necrosis when comparing both study groups.

CONCLUSION

Early aggressive IVF therapy did not improve mortality. Moreover, aggressive IVF therapy could potentially increase the risk for acute kidney injury and pulmonary edema leading to respiratory failure and mechanical ventilation. Studies are needed to investigate which subset of AP patients could benefit from aggressive IVF therapy.

Urinary trypsinogen-2 level and local complications of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Local complications of acute pancreatitis (AP) carry risks of morbidity/mortality. This study aimed to assess whether urinary trypsinogen-2 levels and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score on admission predicted subsequent local complications.

METHODS

One hundred and forty-four consecutive patients with AP were prospectively followed till 6 months after discharge. Urinary trypsinogen-2 levels were measured within 24 h of admission. Local complications (acute peripancreatic fluid collection, acute necrotic collection, pseudocyst, and walled-off necrosis) were diagnosed by abdominal computed tomography. Cut-off for trypsinogen-2 level was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve, and predictors of local complications were analyzed by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven (25.7%) patients developed local complications. Urinary trypsinogen-2 levels were significantly higher in patients with local complications compared with those without local complications (median [interquartile range], 3210 [620-9764.4] μg/L vs 627.3 [72.3-5895] μg/L, P = 0.006). Urinary trypsinogen-2 significantly outperformed BISAP score in predicting local complications (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.65 [95% CI: 0.55-0.75] vs 0.48 [95% CI: 0.38-0.58], P = 0.005). At the optimal cut-off of 500 μg/L, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of trypsinogen-2 level were 78.4%, 45.8%, 33.3%, and 86.0%, respectively. Urinary trypsinogen-2 level > 500 μg/L was an independent predictor of local complications (adjusted odds ratio, 3.72; 95% CI: 1.42-9.76; P = 0.007). By contrast, BISAP score ≥ 3 and pleural effusion predicted organ failure but not local complications.

CONCLUSION

In a prospective cohort, urinary trypsinogen-2 level > 500 μg/L independently predicted local complications of AP.

Together We Stand, Divided We Fall: A Multidisciplinary Approach in Complicated Acute Pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory condition with a mild course in most patients, but 20-30% evolve to single or multiple organ dysfunction and pancreatic/peripancreatic necrosis, with potentially infected collections. In the first weeks of disease, a systemic inflammatory syndrome (SIRS) dominates the clinical setting, and early management decisions in this precocious phase can change the course of the disease. Imaging is crucial in the diagnosis, and since the adoption of the revised Atlanta classification, four different types of pancreatic/peripancreatic collections have been defined. The management of the complicated forms of AP has been defined by several treatment guidelines, and the main indication for intervention is local infection, preferably in walled-off necrosis. Open surgery necrosectomy is associated with a very high rate of morbimortality, giving a place to different multidisciplinary methodologies, emphasizing drainage and necrosectomy techniques in a "step-up" approach starting from mini-invasive endoscopic drainage and moving, if needed, to progressively more invasive techniques, including interventional radiology and mini-invasive surgery. With the advent of several new technologies in the specialties involved, the complicated AP cases which need drainage and necrosectomy benefit from a new era of multidisciplinary cooperation, permitting higher efficacy with lower levels of morbimortality and reducing hospital stay and costs.

Refeeding Syndrome as a Possible Cause of Very Early Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis

Background/Aims

Refeeding syndrome (RFS) is a fatal clinical complication that can occur as a result of fluid and electrolyte shifts during early nutritional rehabilitation for malnourished patients. This study was conducted to determine the clinical implications of RFS in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

Between 2006 and 2016, AP patients with very early mortality were retrospectively enrolled from three university hospitals.

Results

Among 3,206 patients with AP, 44 patients died within 3 days after diagnosis. The median age was 52.5 years (range, 27 to 92 years), male-to-female ratio was 3:1, and median duration from admission to death was 33 hours (range, 5 to 72 hours). The etiology of AP was alcohol abuse in 32 patients, gallstones in five patients, and hypertriglyceridemia in two patients. Ranson score, bedside index for severity of AP, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation-II were valuable for predicting very early mortality (median, [range]; 5 [1 to 8], 3 [0 to 5], and 19 [4 to 45]). RFS was diagnosed in nine patients who died of septic shock (n=5), cardiogenic shock (n=2), or cardiac arrhythmia (n=2). In addition, patients with RFS had significant hypophosphatemia compared to non-RFS patients (2.6 mg/dL [1.3 to 5.1] vs 5.8 mg/dL [0.8 to 15.5]; p=0.001). The early AP-related mortality rate within 3 days was approximately 1.4%, and RFS occurred in 20.5% of these patients following sudden nutritional support.

Conclusions

The findings of current study emphasize that clinicians should be aware of the possibility of RFS in malnourished AP patients with electrolyte imbalances.

Gallstone Pancreatitis: Admission Versus Normal Cholecystectomy-a Randomized Trial (Gallstone PANC Trial)

INTRODUCTION

Early cholecystectomy shortly after admission for mild gallstone pancreatitis has been proposed based on observational data. We hypothesized that cholecystectomy within 24 hours of admission versus after clinical resolution of gallstone pancreatitis that is predicted to be mild results in decreased length-of-stay (LOS) without an increase in complications.

METHODS

Adults with predicted mild gallstone pancreatitis were randomized to cholecystectomy with cholangiogram within 24 hours of presentation (early group) versus after clinical resolution (control) based on abdominal exam and normalized laboratory values. Primary outcome was 30-day LOS including readmissions. Secondary outcomes were time to surgery, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) rates, and postoperative complications. Frequentist and Bayesian intention-to-treat analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics were similar in the early (n = 49) and control (n = 48) groups. Early group had fewer ERCPs (15% vs 29%, P = 0.038), faster time to surgery (16 h vs 43 h, P < 0.005), and shorter 30-day LOS (50 h vs 77 h, RR 0.68 95% CI 0.65 - 0.71, P < 0.005). Complication rates were 6% in early group versus 2% in controls (P = 0.613), which included recurrence/progression of pancreatitis (2 early, 1 control) and a cystic duct stump leak (early). On Bayesian analysis, early cholecystectomy has a 99% probability of reducing 30-day LOS, 93% probability of decreasing ERCP use, and 72% probability of increasing complications.

CONCLUSION

In patients with predicted mild gallstone pancreatitis, cholecystectomy within 24 hours of admission reduced rate of ERCPs, time to surgery, and 30-day length-of-stay. Minor complications may be increased with early cholecystectomy. Identification of patients with predicted mild gallstone pancreatitis in whom early cholecystectomy is safe warrants further investigation.

Elevated arterial lactate level as an independent risk factor for pancreatic infection in moderately severe acute pancreatitis

PURPOSE

The present study aimed to research the relationships between arterial lactate levels and pancreatic infection in moderately severe acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed data from 503 patients with moderately severe acute pancreatitis from January 1, 2013, to March 31, 2018. The baseline characteristics on admission were compared between patients with and without elevated arterial lactate levels. The parameters and laboratory data were compared between patients with and without pancreatic infections at admission. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the value of elevated arterial lactate levels for identifying high-risk patients. P ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

A total of 49 (9.2%) patients were diagnosed with pancreatic infections. Compared with patients without pancreatic infections, pancreatic infection patients had significantly increased arterial lactate levels at admission (1.5 ± 0.7 vs. 2.5 ± 0.9; P < 0.01). Multivariate logic analysis still showed that higher arterial lactate levels in moderately severe acute pancreatitis was an independent risk factor for developing pancreatic infections (hazard ratio: 6.31, 95% CI 3.01-13.24; P < 0.01). Arterial lactate level ≥2.1 mmol/L and procalcitonin level ≥0.5 ng/mL at admission had area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.83 and 0.72, with sensitivity of 67.2% and 87%, and specificity of 82.0% and 60%, respectively, for the prediction of pancreatic infection in moderately severe acute pancreatitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that a higher arterial lactate level is independently associated with pancreatic infection in patients with moderately severe acute pancreatitis and may be used as a tool to identify high-risk patients.

2019 WSES guidelines for the management of severe acute pancreatitis

Although most patients with acute pancreatitis have the mild form of the disease, about 20-30% develops a severe form, often associated with single or multiple organ dysfunction requiring intensive care. Identifying the severe form early is one of the major challenges in managing severe acute pancreatitis. Infection of the pancreatic and peripancreatic necrosis occurs in about 20-40% of patients with severe acute pancreatitis, and is associated with worsening organ dysfunctions. While most patients with sterile necrosis can be managed nonoperatively, patients with infected necrosis usually require an intervention that can be percutaneous, endoscopic, or open surgical. These guidelines present evidence-based international consensus statements on the management of severe acute pancreatitis from collaboration of a panel of experts meeting during the World Congress of Emergency Surgery in June 27-30, 2018 in Bertinoro, Italy. The main topics of these guidelines fall under the following topics: Diagnosis, Antibiotic treatment, Management in the Intensive Care Unit, Surgical and operative management, and Open abdomen.

Current Concepts in Severe Acute and Necrotizing Pancreatitis: An Evidence-Based Approach

The incidence of acute pancreatitis continues to rise, inducing substantial medical and social burden, with annual costs exceeding $2 billion in the United States alone. Although most patients develop mild pancreatitis, 20% develop severe and/or necrotizing pancreatitis, requiring advanced medical and interventional care. Morbidity resulting from local and systemic complications as well as invasive interventions result in mortality rates historically as high as 30%. There has been substantial evolution of strategies for interventions in recent years, from open surgery to minimally invasive surgical and endoscopic step-up approaches. In contrast to the advances in invasive procedures for complications, early management still lacks curative options and consists of adequate fluid resuscitation, analgesics, and monitoring. Many challenges remain, including comprehensive management of the entire spectrum of the disease, which requires close involvement of multiple disciplines at specialized centers.

Prediction of mortality and organ failure based on coagulation and fibrinolysis markers in patients with acute pancreatitis: A retrospective study

This study explored the predictive value of coagulation and fibrinolysis markers with acute pancreatitis (AP)-related mortality and organ failure.We retrospectively reviewed and analyzed coagulation and fibrinolysis markers and clinical outcomes of the patients with AP.A total of 273 patients with AP were enrolled, 7 patients died and 28 patients suffered from organ failure. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression identified the differences of all of the coagulation and fibrinolysis markers as risk factors for AP-related mortality. The differences of APTT value, TT value, D-dimmer level, FDP level, and AT III level were risk factors for organ failure. Furthermore, the OR of the differences of platelet, PT, APTT, TT, fibrinogen, D-dimmer, FDP, and AT III was substantially improved by grouping with intervals of 10 × 10/L, 2 seconds, 5 seconds, 3 seconds, 0.5 g/L, 3 mg/L FEU, 5 mg/L and 10%, respectively. The risk of mortality can increase up to 1.62, 5.17, and 5.60 fold for every 10 × 10/L, 2 seconds and 5 seconds of increase in platelet, PT and APTT, respectively. There is approximate 2-fold increase in risk of organ failure for every 2 seconds of TT increase. In receiver operating characteristic analysis, there is no difference in the predictive power of bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) with them in mortality or organ failure.In patients with AP, the dynamic changes of coagulation and fibrinolysis markers are good predictors for AP-related mortality and organ failure, especially platelet, PT and APTT in mortality and TT in organ failure.

Red cell distribution width and red cell distribution width to total serum calcium ratio as major predictors of severity and mortality in acute pancreatitis

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Current severity scores include multiple variables and some of them are only complete within 48 h of admission. Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a simple and routine parameter that seems to be related to inflammatory status. Our aims were to evaluate the diagnostic value of RDW in severity and mortality of AP comparing with other prognostic scoring systems.

Methods

Retrospective case-control study of a total of 312 patients with AP admitted between 2014 and 2016. Patients with severe AP (cases) were compared with patients with mild AP (controls) in the 1:1 proportion. Additionally, a comparison between survivor and nonsurvivor AP patients was performed. Diagnosis and severity of AP were defined according to the revised Atlanta classification 2012. Variables evaluated included demographics, comorbidities, hospital stay, laboratorial parameters, arterial blood gas analysis, prognostic scores within 24 h of admission (Ranson, BISAP and Modified Marshall) and mortality.

Results

Included 91 cases of severe AP, most males (58.2% vs 51.6%; p = 0.228) with mean age of 64.8 ± 16.3 years (vs 67.9 ± 13.7; p = 0.239). RDW_0h was higher in patients with severe AP (14.6 ± 1.3 vs 12.7 ± 0.5; p < 0.001), as well as RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio (1.8 ± 0.3 vs 1.3 ± 0.1; p < 0.001). After multivariate and ROC curve analysis, RDW_0h (AUROC: 0.960; p < 0.001) and RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio (AUROC: 0.973; p < 0.001) were the major predictors of severe AP for a cut-off value of 13.0 (S: 92.7%; Sp: 84.3%) and 1.4 (S: 96.3%; Sp: 84.3%), respectively. These factors were superior to prognostic scores, such as Ranson (AUROC: 0.777; p < 0.001; cut-off: 3.0), BISAP (AUROC: 0.732; p < 0.001; cut-off: 2.0) and Modified Marshall (AUROC: 0.756; p < 0.001; cut-off: 1.0). The mortality rate was 8.8% (16/182), all cases associated with severe AP (17.6%; 16/91). RDW_0h and RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio were higher in nonsurvivor AP patients (15.3 ± 1.4 vs 13.5 ± 1.3; p < 0.001 and 2.0 ± 0.3 vs 1.6 ± 0.3; p < 0.001, respectively). In multivariate and ROC curve analysis, RDW_0h (AUROC: 0.842; p < 0.001; cut-off: 14.0), RDW_24h (AUROC: 0.848; p < 0.001; cut-off: 13.8) and RDW_0h-to-serum calcium ratio (AUROC: 0.820; p < 0.001; cut-off: 1.7) were independent predictors for AP mortality, superior to conventional prognostic scoring systems Ranson (AUROC: 0.640; p = 0.003; cut-off:3.0), BISAP (AUROC: 0.693; p = 0.017; cut-off: 2.0) and Modified Marshall (AUROC: 0.806; p < 0.001; cut-off:1.0).

Conclusions

RDW is a simple routine parameter, available at admission. This AP cohort showed that RDW_0h > 13.0 and RDW_0h-to-total serum calcium ratio > 1.4 were excellent predictors for severity and RDW_0h > 14.0 and RDW_0h-to-total serum calcium ratio > 1.7 were very-good predictors for mortality, being superior to conventional prognostic scoring systems.