Hepatitis C virus eradication decreases the risks of liver cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications (Taiwanese chronic hepatitis C cohort)

Benefits of Hepatitis C Viral Eradication: A Real-World Nationwide Cohort Study in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) increases the risk of liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This nationwide cohort study assessed the effectiveness of viral eradication of CHC.

METHODS

The Taiwanese chronic hepatitis C cohort and Taiwan hepatitis C virus (HCV) registry are nationwide HCV registry cohorts incorporating data from 23 and 53 hospitals in Taiwan, respectively. This study included 27,577 individuals from these cohorts that were given a diagnosis of CHC and with data linked to the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients received either pegylated interferon and ribavirin or direct-acting antiviral agent therapy for > 4 weeks for new-onset LC and liver-related events.

RESULTS

Among the 27,577 analyzed patients, 25,461 (92.3%) achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). The mean follow-up duration was 51.2 ± 48.4 months, totaling 118,567 person-years. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) for incident HCC was 1.39 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00-1.95, p = 0.052) among noncirrhotic patients without SVR compared with those with SVR and 1.82 (95% CI 1.34-2.48) among cirrhotic patients without SVR. The HR for liver-related events, including HCC and decompensated LC, was 1.70 (95% CI 1.30-2.24) among cirrhotic patients without SVR. Patients with SVR had a lower 10-year cumulative incidence of new-onset HCC than those without SVR did (21.7 vs. 38.7% in patients with LC, p < 0.001; 6.0 vs. 18.4% in patients without LC, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

HCV eradication reduced the incidence of HCC in patients with and without LC and reduced the incidence of liver-related events in patients with LC.

Metformin and statins reduce hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis C patients with failed antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who failed antiviral therapy are at increased risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study assessed the potential role of metformin and statins, medications for diabetes mellitus (DM) and hyperlipidemia (HLP), in reducing HCC risk among these patients.

METHODS

We included CHC patients from the T-COACH study who failed antiviral therapy. We tracked the onset of HCC 1.5 years post-therapy by linking to Taiwan's cancer registry data from 2003 to 2019. We accounted for death and liver transplantation as competing risks and employed Gray's cumulative incidence and Cox subdistribution hazards models to analyze HCC development.

RESULTS

Out of 2,779 patients, 480 (17.3%) developed HCC post-therapy. DM patients not using metformin had a 51% increased risk of HCC compared to non-DM patients, while HLP patients on statins had a 50% reduced risk compared to those without HLP. The 5-year HCC incidence was significantly higher for metformin non-users (16.5%) versus non-DM patients (11.3%; adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio [aSHR]=1.51; P=0.007) and metformin users (3.1%; aSHR=1.59; P=0.022). Statin use in HLP patients correlated with a lower HCC risk (3.8%) compared to non-HLP patients (12.5%; aSHR=0.50; P<0.001). Notably, the increased HCC risk associated with non-use of metformin was primarily seen in non-cirrhotic patients, whereas statins decreased HCC risk in both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients.

CONCLUSION

Metformin and statins may have a chemopreventive effect against HCC in CHC patients who failed antiviral therapy. These results support the need for personalized preventive strategies in managing HCC risk.

Micro-elimination of hepatitis C virus infection in the rural and remote areas of Taiwan - A multi-center collaborative care model

INTRODUCTION

Taiwan has several hepatitis C virus (HCV) hyper-endemic areas. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of a collaborative HCV care system with an outreach decentralized strategy among the resource-constrained rural/remote areas of Taiwan.

METHODS

The pilot study was conducted in four high HCV-endemic townships in the rural/remote areas of Taoyuan, Alishan, Zhuoxi and Xiulin. Registered residents who worked or lived in the four areas and were aged 30-75 years were invited to participate in this program. Multidisciplinary HCV care teams provided outreach decentralized services of anti-HCV screening, link-to-diagnosis, and link-to-treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA). The primary end-point was sustained virological response (SVR).

RESULTS

Of 8291 registered residents who were invited as the target population, 7807 (94.2%) subjects received anti-HCV screening, with the average anti-HCV prevalence rate of 14.2% (1108/7807) (range among four areas: 11.8%-16.7%). The rate of link-to-diagnosis was 94.4% (1046/1108) of anti-HCV-positive subjects (range: 90.9%-100%) with an average HCV-viremic rate of 55.1% (576/1046) (range: 50.0%-64.3%). The link-to-treat rate was 94.4% (544/576) in HCV-viremic subjects (range from 92.7% to 97.2%). Overall, 523 (96.1%) patients achieved an SVR (range: 94.7%-97.6%). Eventually, the overall effectiveness was 80.7% (range: 74.6%-93.1%). The presence of hepatocellular carcinoma at baseline was the only factor associated with DAA failure. The DAA regimens were well-tolerated.

CONCLUSION

The outreach decentralized community-based care system with DAA therapy was highly effective and safe in the achievement of HCV micro-elimination in the resource-constrained rural and remote regions, which could help us to tackle the disparity.

Global epidemiology of cirrhosis - aetiology, trends and predictions

Cirrhosis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in people with chronic liver disease worldwide. In 2019, cirrhosis was associated with 2.4% of global deaths. Owing to the rising prevalence of obesity and increased alcohol consumption on the one hand, and improvements in the management of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections on the other, the epidemiology and burden of cirrhosis are changing. In this Review, we highlight global trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis, discuss the contributions of various aetiologies of liver disease, examine projections for the burden of cirrhosis, and suggest future directions to tackle this condition. Although viral hepatitis remains the leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis are rising in several regions of the world. The global number of deaths from cirrhosis increased between 2012 and 2017, but age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) declined. However, the ASDR for NAFLD-associated cirrhosis increased over this period, whereas ASDRs for other aetiologies of cirrhosis declined. The number of deaths from cirrhosis is projected to increase in the next decade. For these reasons, greater efforts are required to facilitate primary prevention, early detection and treatment of liver disease, and to improve access to care.

Metformin reduces hepatocellular carcinoma incidence after successful antiviral therapy in patients with diabetes and chronic hepatitis C in Taiwan

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is known to increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among individuals with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We aimed to evaluate whether metformin reduces HCC risk among individuals with DM and CHC after successful antiviral therapy.

METHODS

Individuals with CHC who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) after interferon-based therapy were enrolled in a large-scale, multicenter cohort in Taiwan (T-COACH). Cases of HCC at least 1 year after SVR were identified through linkage to the catastrophic illness and cancer registry databases.

RESULTS

Of 7,249 individuals with CHC enrolled in the study, 781 (10.8%) had diabetes and 647 (82.8%) were metformin users. During a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 227 patients developed new-onset HCC. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 10.9% in non-metformin users and 2.6% in metformin users, compared to 3.0% in individuals without DM (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.83; 95% CI 1.57-5.08 and aHR 1.46; 95% CI 0.98-2.19, respectively). Cirrhosis was the most important factor significantly associated with higher HCC risk in Cox regression analysis, followed by DM non-metformin use, older age, male sex, and obesity; whereas hyperlipidemia with statin use was associated with a lower HCC risk. Using the two most crucial risk factors, cirrhosis and DM non-metformin use, we constructed a simple risk model that could predict HCC risk among individuals with CHC after SVR. Metformin use was shown to reduce the risk of all liver-related complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Metformin use greatly reduced HCC risk after successful antiviral therapy in individuals with diabetes and CHC. A simple risk stratification model comprising cirrhosis and DM non-metformin use could predict long-term outcomes in individuals with CHC after SVR.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

The current study provides evidence that metformin could reduce hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence after successful antiviral therapy among those with diabetes and chronic hepatitis C in a large-scale nationwide cohort study. Although successful antiviral therapy greatly reduces HCC risk in individuals with chronic hepatitis C, those with cirrhosis, diabetes, obesity, and the elderly remain at high risk of HCC development. We demonstrated that a simple risk model composed of two crucial unfavorable factors, cirrhosis and diabetes without metformin use, predicts the risk of HCC and major liver-related complications after successful antiviral therapy in individuals with chronic hepatitis C. Metformin use is highly recommended for individuals with diabetes and chronic hepatitis C after viral eradication to reduce the risk of HCC.

Secular Trends of Clinical Characteristics and Survival of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Taiwan from 2011 to 2019

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of cancer death in Taiwan, and in the past 30-40 years, Taiwan has been committed to its prevention and treatment. We aimed to investigate the secular trends of characteristics and the survival of HCC in recent decades after making increased efforts. Between 2011 and 2019, a total of 73,817 cases were enrolled from the TCR database. The overall male-to-female ratio was 7/3. The overall, male and female mean ages increased from 63.8 to 66.1 years, 62.0 to 64.3 years and 68.3 to 70.4 years, respectively. After dividing by viral etiologies and gender, the mean age showed increasing trends in all subgroups. The proportions of HBV-HCC, HCV-HCC, HBV+HCV-HCC and Non-HBV+non-HCV-HCC were 48.3%, 25.2%, 5.3% and 21.3% in males, compared with 25.5%, 48.6%, 5.3% and 20.5% in females, respectively. The 5-year survival rates of BCLC stages 0, A, B, C and D were 70%, 58%, 34%, 11% and 4%, respectively. The proportion of BCLC stage 0 increased from 6.2% to 11.3%. Multivariate analysis showed that being female, older age, diagnostic year, BCLC stages, hospital level, body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, AFP, Child-Pugh classification and HBV/HCV status were independent predictors for survival. In recent decades, the overall survival of HCC in Taiwan has been improving and might be partly associated with increased BCLC 0 and Child-Pugh A patients, while with the consequent age of patients increasing over time. The proportion of viral-related HCC is decreasing, while nonviral-related HCC is increasing.

Combined Liver Stiffness and Α-fetoprotein Further beyond the Sustained Virologic Response Visit as Predictors of Long-Term Liver-Related Events in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C

AIMS

Long-term risk stratification using combined liver stiffness (LS) and clinically relevant blood tests acquired at the baseline further beyond the sustained virologic response (SVR) visit for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has not been thoroughly investigated. This study retrospectively investigated the prognostics of liver-related events (LREs) further beyond the SVR visit.

METHODS

Cox regression and random forest models identified the key factors, including longitudinal LS and noninvasive test results, that could predict LREs, including hepatocellular carcinoma, during prespecified follow-ups from 2010 to 2021. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis estimated the significance of between-group risk stratification.

RESULTS

Of the entire eligible cohort (n = 520) of CHC patients with SVR to antiviral therapy, 28 (5.4%) patients developed post-SVR LREs over a median follow-up period of 6.1 years (interquartile range = 3.5-8.7). The multivariate Cox regression analysis identified two significant predictors of LREs after the year 3 post-SVR (Y3PSVR) baseline (LRE, n = 15 of 28, 53.6%, median follow-up = 4.1 [1.6-6.4] years after Y3PSVR): LS at Y3PSVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 3.980, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.085-7.597, P < 0.001), and α-fetoprotein (AFP) at Y3PSVR (aHR = 1.017, 95% CI = 1.001-1.034, P=0.034). LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL for Y3PSVR yielded positive likelihood ratios of 4.24 and 2.62, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that among the stratified subgroups, the subgroup with concurrent LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL at Y3PSVR exhibited the highest risk of LREs after Y3PSVR (log-rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We recommend the combined use of concurrent LS and AFP in future prediction models for LREs in CHC. Patients with concurrently high LS and AFP values further beyond the SVR visit may require a recall policy involving intense surveillance.

HCC incidence after hepatitis C cure among patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

HCV cure reduces but does not eliminate the risk of HCC. HCC surveillance is recommended in populations where the incidence exceeds 1.5% per year. In cirrhosis, HCC surveillance should continue after HCV cure, although it is uncertain if this should be indefinite. For patients with advanced fibrosis (F3), guidelines are inconsistent in their recommendations. We evaluated the incidence of HCC after HCV cure among patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This systematic review and meta-analysis identified 44 studies (107,548 person-years of follow-up) assessing the incidence of HCC after HCV cure among patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC was 2.1 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.9-2.4) among patients with cirrhosis and 0.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 0.3-0.7) among patients with F3 fibrosis. In a meta-regression analysis among patients with cirrhosis, older age (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] per 10-year increase in mean/median age, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00-1.73) and prior decompensation (aRR per 10% increase in the proportion of patients with prior decompensation, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12) were associated with an increased incidence of HCC. Longer follow-up after HCV cure was associated with a decreased incidence of HCC (aRR per year increase in mean/median follow-up, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79-0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with cirrhosis, the incidence of HCC decreases over time after HCV cure and is lowest in patients with younger age and compensated cirrhosis. The substantially lower incidence in F3 fibrosis is below the recommended threshold for cost-effective screening. The results should encourage the development of validated predictive models that better identify at-risk individuals, especially among patients with F3 fibrosis.

Circulating Let-7 Family Members as Non-Invasive Biomarkers for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk after Antiviral Treatment among Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

HCC, a leading cause of cancer-related mortality, is diagnosed at advanced stages. Although antiviral therapy has reduced the risk of HCC among chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients, the risk of HCC remains, thus, highlighting the unmet need for continuous surveillance. Therefore, stable and cost-effective biomarkers, such as circulating microRNAs, must be identified. We aimed to clarify whether serum levels of the Let-7 family can predict HCC risk in patients with CHC using univariate and multivariate Cox’s proportional hazards model. We analyzed the sera of 54 patients with CHC who developed HCC after antiviral therapy and compared the data with those of 173 patients without HCC development. The Let-7 family (except for let-7c) exhibited significant negative correlations with the fibrosis score (r = −0.2736 to −0.34, p = 0.0002 to <0.0001). After Cox’s regression model was used to adjust for age, sex, HCV genotype, and FIB-4 ≥ 3.25, patients with CHC with let-7i median ≥ −1.696 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.08−0.94, p = 0.0372) in the sustained virologic response (SVR) groups and ≥−1.696 (aHR = 0.09, 95% CI: 0.08−0.94, p = 0.0022) in the non-SVR group were less likely to develop HCC. Thus, circulating let-7i can be used for early CHC surveillance in patients with HCC risk after antiviral treatment.