Hepatitis C virus elimination in Indonesia: Epidemiological, cost and cost-effectiveness modelling to advance advocacy and strategic planning

Effects and Costs of Hepatitis C Virus Elimination for the Whole Population in China: A Modelling Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

China has the highest number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in the world. However, it is unclear what levels of screening and treatment are needed to achieve the WHO 2030 hepatitis C elimination targets. We aimed to evaluate the impact of scaling up interventions on the hepatitis C epidemic and determine how and at what cost these elimination targets could be achieved for the whole population in China.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental model incorporating HCV transmission, disease progression, and care cascade for the whole population in China, calibrated with data on demographics, injecting drug use, HCV prevalence, and treatments. Five different scenarios were evaluated for effects and costs for 2022-2030. All costs were converted to 2021 US dollar (USD) and discounted at an annual rate of 5%. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

Under the status quo scenario, the incidence of hepatitis C is projected to increase from 60.39 (57.60-63.45) per 100,000 person-years in 2022 to 68.72 (65.3-73.97) per 100,000 person-years in 2030, and 2.52 million (1.94-3.07 million) infected patients are projected to die between 2022 and 2030, of which 0.76 (0.61-1.08) million will die due to hepatitis C. By increasing primary screening to 10%, conducting regular rescreening (annually for PWID and every 5 years for the general population) and treating 90% of patients diagnosed, the incidence would be reduced by 88.15% (86.61-89.45%) and hepatitis C-related mortality by 60.5% (52.62-65.54%) by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. This strategy would cost USD 52.78 (USD 43.93-58.53) billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Without changes in HCV prevention and control policy, the disease burden of HCV in China will increase dramatically. To achieve the hepatitis C elimination targets, China needs to sufficiently scale up screening and treatment.

Based on knowledge capital value for disease cost accounting of diagnosis related groups

Background

The National Health Commission and the other relevant departments in China have initiated testing of the Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) system in 30 pilot locations since 2019. In the process of DRG payment reform, accounting for the costs of diseases has become a highly challenging issue. The traditional method of disease accounting method overlooks the compensation for the knowledge capital value of medical personnel.

Objective

The primary objective of this study is to analyze the cost accounting scheme of China's Diagnosis Related Groups (C-DRG), focusing on the value of knowledge capital.

Methods

The study initially proposes a measurement index system for the value of knowledge-based capital, including the difficulty of disease treatment, labor intensity of disease treatment, risk of disease treatment, and operation/treatment time for diseases. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then utilized to weigh the features of medical workers' knowledge capital value. First, pairwise comparisons are conducted in this stage to develop a two-pair judgment matrix of the primary indicators. Second, the eigenvectors corresponding to the maximum eigenvalues of the matrix are calculated to generate the weight coefficient of each feature. The consistency test is carried out after this stage. An empirical analysis is conducted by collecting data, including the full costs of treating three types of diseases-hip replacement, acute simple appendicitis, and heart bypass surgery-from one public medical institution.

Results

The empirical analysis examines whether this DRG costing accounting can address the issue of neglecting the value of medical workers' knowledge capital. The methods reconfigure the positive incentive mechanism, stimulate the endogenous motivation of the medical service system, foster independent changes in medical behavior, and achieve the goals of reasonable cost control.

Conclusion

In the cost accounting system of C-DRG, the value of medical workers' knowledge capital is acknowledged. This acknowledgment not only boosts the enthusiasm and creativity of medical workers in optimizing and standardizing the diagnosis and treatment process but also improves the transparency and authenticity of DRG pricing. This is particularly evident in the optimization and standardization of the diagnosis and treatment processes within medical institutions and in monitoring inadequate medical practices within these institutions.

Methods and indicators to validate country reductions in incidence of hepatitis C virus infection to elimination levels set by WHO

One of the main goals of the 2016 Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis is the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health problem by 2030, defined as an 80% reduction in incidence and 65% reduction in mortality relative to 2015. Although monitoring HCV incidence is key to validating HCV elimination, use of the gold-standard method, which involves prospective HCV retesting of people at risk, can be prohibitively resource-intensive. Additionally, few countries collected quality data in 2015 to enable an 80% decrease by 2030 to be calculated. Here, we first review different methods of monitoring HCV incidence and discuss their resource implications and applicability to various populations. Second, using mathematical models developed for various global settings, we assess whether trends in HCV chronic prevalence or HCV antibody prevalence or scale-up levels for HCV testing, treatment, and preventative interventions can be used as reliable alternative indicators to validate the HCV incidence target. Third, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of an absolute HCV incidence target and suggest a suitable threshold. Finally, we propose three options that countries can use to validate the HCV incidence target, depending on the available surveillance infrastructure.

Hepatitis C continuum of care: Experience of integrative hepatitis C treatment within a human immunodeficiency virus clinic in Indonesia

INTRODUCTION

Direct-acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) have changed the paradigm of hepatitis C therapy for both HCV/HIV co-infected and HCV mono-infected patients. We aimed to describe the HCV continuum of care of HIV-infected patients treated in an HIV clinic after a free DAA program in Indonesia and identify factors correlated with sofosbuvir-daclatasvir (SOF-DCV) treatment failure.

METHODS

We did a retrospective cohort study of adult HIV/HCV co-infected patients under routine HIV-care from November 2019 to April 2020 in the HIV integrated clinic of Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. We evaluated some factors correlated with sofosbuvir-daclatasvir treatment failure: gender, diabetes mellitus, previous IFN failure, cirrhosis, concomitant ribavirin use, high baseline HCV-RNA, and low CD4 cell count.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Overall, 640 anti-HCV positive patients were included in the study. Most of them were male (88.3%) and former intravenous drug users (76.6%) with a mean age of 40.95 (SD 4.60) years old. Numbers and percentages for the stages of the HCV continuum of care were as follows: HCV-RNA tested (411; 64.2%), pre-therapeutic evaluation done (271; 42.3%), HCV treatment initiated (210; 32.8%), HCV treatment completed (207; 32.2%), but only 178 of these patients had follow-up HCV-RNA tests to allow SVR assessment; and finally SVR12 achieved (178; 27.8%). For the 184 who completed SOF-DCV treatment, SVR12 was achieved by 95.7%. In multivariate analysis, diabetes mellitus remained a significant factor correlated with SOF-DCV treatment failure (adjusted RR 17.0, 95%CI: 3.28-88.23, p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that in the HCV continuum of care for HIV/HCV co-infected patients, gaps still exist at all stages. As the most commonly used DAA combination, sofosbuvir daclatasvir treatment proved to be effective and well-tolerated in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. Diabetes mellitus was significant factor correlated with not achieving SVR12 in this population.

Initial success from a public health approach to hepatitis C testing, treatment and cure in seven countries: the road to elimination

With political will, modest financial investment and effective technical assistance, public sector hepatitis C virus (HCV) programmes can be established in low- and middle-income countries as a first step towards elimination. Seven countries, with support from the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) and partners, have expanded access to HCV treatment by combining programme simplification with market shaping to reduce commodity prices. CHAI has supported a multipronged approach to HCV programme launch in Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Rwanda and Vietnam including pricing negotiations with suppliers, policy development, fast-track registrations of quality-assured generics, financing advocacy and strengthened service delivery. Governments are leading programme implementation, leveraging HIV programme infrastructure/financing and focusing on higher-HCV prevalence populations like people living with HIV, people who inject drugs and prisoners. This manuscript aims to describe programme structure and strategies, highlight current commodity costs and outline testing and treatment volumes across these countries. Across countries, commodity costs have fallen from >US$100 per diagnostic test and US$750-US$900 per 12-week pan-genotypic direct-acting antiviral regimen to as low as US$80 per-cure commodity package, including WHO-prequalified generic drugs (sofosbuvir + daclatasvir). As of December 2019, 5900+ healthcare workers were trained, 2 209 209 patients were screened, and 120 522 patients initiated treatment. The cure (SVR12) rate was >90%, including at lower-tier facilities. Programmes are successfully implementing simplified, decentralised public health approaches. Combined with political will and affordable pricing, these efforts can translate into commitments to achieve global targets. However, to achieve elimination, additional investment in scale-up is required.

Cost-Effectiveness of Testing and Treatment for Hepatitis B Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Infections: An Analysis by Scenarios, Regions, and Income

OBJECTIVES

Testing and treatment for hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are highly effective, high-impact interventions. This article aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of scaling up these interventions by scenarios, regions, and income groups.

METHODS

We modeled costs and impacts of hepatitis elimination in 67 low- and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030. Costs included testing and treatment commodities, healthcare consultations, and future savings from cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinomas averted. We modeled disease progression to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) by regions and World Bank income groups, according to 3 scenarios: flatline (status quo), progress (testing/treatment according to World Health Organization guidelines), and ambitious (elimination).

RESULTS

Compared with no action, current levels of testing and treatment had an ICER of $807/DALY for HBV and -$62/DALY (cost-saving) for HCV. Scaling up to progress scenario, both interventions had ICERs less than the average gross domestic product/capita of countries (HBV: $532/DALY; HCV: $613/DALY). Scaling up from flatline to elimination led to higher ICERs across countries (HBV: $927/DALY; HCV: $2528/DALY, respectively) that remained lower than the average gross domestic product/capita. Sensitivity analysis indicated discount rates and commodity costs were main factors driving results.

CONCLUSIONS

Scaling up testing and treatment for HBV and HCV infection as per World Health Organization guidelines is a cost-effective intervention. Elimination leads to a much larger impact though ICERs are higher. Price reduction strategies are needed to achieve elimination given the substantial budget impact at current commodity prices.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a simplified treatment model with direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C in Cambodia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières established the first general population Hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and treatment site in Cambodia, offering free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. This study analysed the cost-effectiveness of this intervention.

METHODS

Costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were projected with a Markov model over a lifetime horizon, discounted at 3%/year. Patient-level resource-use and outcome data, treatment costs, costs of HCV-related healthcare and EQ-5D-5L health states were collected from an observational cohort study evaluating the effectiveness of DAA treatment under full and simplified models of care compared to no treatment; other model parameters were derived from literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost/QALY gained) were compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Cambodia ($248/QALY).

RESULTS

The total cost of testing and treatment per patient for the full model of care was $925(IQR $668-1631), reducing to $376(IQR $344-422) for the simplified model of care. EQ-5D-5L values varied by fibrosis stage: decompensated cirrhosis had the lowest value, values increased during and following treatment. The simplified model of care was cost saving compared to no treatment, while the full model of care, although cost-effective compared to no treatment ($187/QALY), cost an additional $14 485/QALY compared to the simplified model, above the willingness-to-pay threshold for Cambodia. This result is robust to variation in parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

The simplified model of care was cost saving compared to no treatment, emphasizing the importance of simplifying pathways of care for improving access to HCV treatment in low-resource settings.

Diagnostic performance of APRI and FIB-4 for confirming cirrhosis in Indonesian HIV/HCV co-infected patients

Background

After successful of antiretroviral therapy, highly effective direct acting antiviral (DAA) make HCV elimination reasonable in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. However, in achieving this target, there are still barriers to start DAA treatment, particularly in the area of liver fibrosis assessment that determine the duration of therapy. We aimed to assess the diagnostic performance of APRI and FIB-4 for diagnosing cirrhosis in HIV/HCV co-infected patients using hepatic transient elastography (TE) as gold standard.

Method

This is a retrospective study on HIV/HCV co-infected patients who concomitantly performed hepatic TE measurement, APRI, and FIB-4 evaluation before HCV treatment initiation at a tertiary hospital in Jakarta from 2014 to 2019. Sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy of indirect biomarkers for liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥ 12.5 kPa was determined by receiver operator characteristics curves.

Results

223 HIV/HCV co-infected patients on stable antiretroviral therapy were included, of whom 91.5% were male with mean age of 37 (SD 5) years. Only 28.7% of patients were classified as cirrhosis (F4). Using TE as gold standard (≥12.5 kPa), the low threshold of APRI (1) had specificity 95%, sensitivity 48.4%, correctly classified 81.6% of patients, with moderate performance, AUC at 0.72 (95% CI 0.63–0.80). The optimal cut-off of FIB-4 was 1.66 [specificity 92.5%, sensitivity 53.1%, AUC at 0.73 (95% CI 0.65–0.81)] and correctly classified 81.1% of the patients.

Conclusion

APRI score ≥ 1 and FIB-4 score ≥ 1.66 had moderate performance with high specificity in diagnosing cirrhosis. These biochemical markers could be used while TE is not available.