Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909) in North America

Predicting the potential distribution and coexistence of Chagas disease vectors in the Americas

Predicting the potential distribution and coexistence of suitable geographic areas for Chagas disease vectors in the Americas is a crucial task for understanding the eco-epidemiological dynamics of this disease. The potential distribution and coexistence of 3 species-Rhodnius prolixus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), Cavernicola pilosa (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), and Rhodnius pictipes (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) were modeled. Presence records were obtained and environmental variables were selected based on correlation analysis, Jackknife analysis and knowledge of the biology and natural history of the species. The MaxEnt algorithm included in the kuenm package of R software was used for modeling the potential distribution, and various scenarios of the BAM diagram (Biotic, Abiotic, and Movement variables) were evaluated. The variables contributing to the final models were different for each species. Rhodnius pictipes showed a potential distribution in South America, particularly in Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname. Areas with environmentally suitable conditions for R. prolixus were located in southern Brazil, Peru, Colombia, southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, whereas for C. pilosa they were in southeastern Brazil, southeastern Central America, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. Co-occurrence analysis revealed distinct patterns in the neotropical region, with some areas indicating the potential distribution of 1 or more species. In Brazil, occurrence and co-occurrence areas were concentrated in the northwest and southeast regions. Overall, this study provides valuable information on the potential distribution and coexistence of vectors, which can inform targeted vector control strategies and contribute to global efforts in combating Chagas disease.

Chagas disease in the United States: a call for increased investment and collaborative research

Chagas disease, caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is a highly overlooked parasitic infection within the United States. It affects an estimated 300,000 individuals, often remaining asymptomatic for years before triggering severe complications such as cardiomyopathy in 30-40% of cases. While many contract the disease in Latin America, its transmission by local vectors in the southern U.S. presents a significant challenge. Unfortunately, limited access to diagnosis and treatment persists, alongside unresolved gaps in healthcare systems and disease pathogenesis. In this viewpoint, we discuss the need for focused research and public health initiatives, with U.S. research institutions playing a crucial role in developing new treatments and identifying biomarkers. Furthermore, investigating the genetic variations of T. cruzi between North and South America is vital for improving diagnostic and treatment strategies. Urgent action is required to implement national and local programs, bolstering healthcare responses and advancing research efforts.Q4As per journal style section heading 'Introduction' is mandatory, hence we have introduced the heading. Please check, and correct if necessary.ResolvedQ5If there are any drug dosages in your article, please verify them and indicate that you have done so by initialing this query.ResolvedQ6Please supply the year of publication.ResolvedFootnoteView Edit Log9.

From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021-2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000-648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8-1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900-3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Climate and Environmental Changes and Their Potential Effects on the Dynamics of Chagas Disease: Hybridization in Rhodniini (Hemiptera, Triatominae)

Chagas disease affects about eight million people. In view of the issues related to the influence of anthropogenic changes in the dynamics of the distribution and reproductive interaction of triatomines, we performed experimental crosses between species of the Rhodniini tribe in order to evaluate interspecific reproductive interactions and hybrid production capacity. Reciprocal crossing experiments were conducted among Rhodnius brethesi × R. pictipes, R. colombiensis × R. ecuadoriensis, R. neivai × R. prolixus, R. robustus × R. prolixus, R. montenegrensis × R. marabaensis; R. montenegrensis × R. robustus, R. prolixus × R. nasutus and R. neglectus × R. milesi. With the exception of crosses between R. pictipes ♀ × R. brethesi ♂, R. ecuadoriensis ♀ × R. colombiensis ♂ and R. prolixus ♀ × R. neivai ♂, all experimental crosses resulted in hybrids. Our results demonstrate that both allopatric and sympatric species produce hybrids, which can generate concern for public health agencies in the face of current anthropogenic events. Thus, we demonstrate that species of the Rhodniini tribe are capable of producing hybrids under laboratory conditions. These results are of great epidemiological importance and raise an important discussion about the influence of climatic and environmental interactions on Chagas disease dynamics.

Disentangling the contributions of biotic and abiotic predictors in the niche and the species distribution model of Trypanosoma cruzi, etiological agent of Chagas disease

The potential benefits of incorporating biotic, as well as abiotic, predictors in niche and species distribution models (SDMs), as well as how to achieve this, is still debated, with their interpretability and explanatory potential being particularly questioned. It is therefore important to stress test modelling methodologies that include biotic factors against use cases where there is ample knowledge of the potential biotic component of the niche. Relatively well studied and important vector-borne diseases offer just such an opportunity, where knowledge of the agents involved in the transmission cycle -vectors and hosts- can serve to calibrate and test the niche model and corresponding SDM. Here, we study the contributions of biotic -14 vectors, 459 potential hosts- and abiotic -258 climatic categories- predictors to the explanatory and predictive features of the niche and corresponding SDM for the etiological agent of Chagas disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, in Mexico. Using an established spatial data mining technique, we generate biotic, abiotic and biotic+abiotic niche and SDM models. We test our models by comparing predictions of the most important probable hosts of Chagas disease with a previously published list of confirmed hosts. We quantify, compare, and contrast the individual and total contributions of predictors to the niche and distribution of Chagas disease in Mexico. We assess the relative predictive potential of these variables to model performance, showing that models that include relevant biotic niche variables lead to more predictive, more ecologically realistic SDMs. Our research illustrates a useful general procedure for identifying and ranking potential biotic interactions and for assessing the relative importance of biotic and abiotic predictors. We conclude that the inclusion of both abiotic and biotic predictors in SDMs not only provides more predictive and accurate models but also models that are more understandable and explainable from an ecological niche perspective.

Potential distributions of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi and its vector Dipetalogaster maxima highlight areas at risk of Chagas disease transmission in Baja California Sur, Mexico, under climate change

Dipetalogaster maxima is a primary vector of Chagas disease in the Cape region of Baja California Sur, Mexico. The geographic distribution of D. maxima is limited to this small region of the Baja California Peninsula in Mexico. Our study aimed to construct the ecological niche models (ENMs) of this understudied vector species and the parasite responsible for Chagas disease (Trypanosoma cruzi). We modelled the ecological niches of both species under current and future climate change projections in 2050 using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. We also assessed the human population at risk of exposure to D. maxima bites, the hypothesis of ecological niche equivalency and similarity between D. maxima and T. cruzi, and finally the abundance centroid hypothesis. The ENM predicted a higher overlap between both species in the Western and Southern coastal regions of the Baja California Peninsula. The climate change scenarios predicted a Northern shift in the ecological niche of both species. Our findings suggested that the highly tourist destination of Los Cabos is a high-risk zone for Chagas disease circulation. Overall, the study provides valuable data to vector surveillance and control programs.

Toward New Epidemiological Landscapes of Trypanosoma cruzi (Kinetoplastida, Trypanosomatidae) Transmission under Future Human-Modified Land Cover and Climatic Change in Mexico

Chagas disease, caused by the protozoa Trypanosoma cruzi, is an important yet neglected disease that represents a severe public health problem in the Americas. Although the alteration of natural habitats and climate change can favor the establishment of new transmission cycles for T. cruzi, the compound effect of human-modified landscapes and current climate change on the transmission dynamics of T. cruzi has until now received little attention. A better understanding of the relationship between these factors and T. cruzi presence is an important step towards finding ways to mitigate the future impact of this disease on human communities. Here, we assess how wild and domestic cycles of T. cruzi transmission are related to human-modified landscapes and climate conditions (LUCC-CC). Using a Bayesian datamining framework, we measured the correlations among the presence of T. cruzi transmission cycles (sylvatic, rural, and urban) and historical land use, land cover, and climate for the period 1985 to 2012. We then estimated the potential range changes of T. cruzi transmission cycles under future land-use and -cover change and climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070 time-horizons, with respect to “green” (RCP 2.6), “business-as-usual” (RCP 4.5), and “worst-case” (RCP 8.5) scenarios, and four general circulation models. Our results show how sylvatic and domestic transmission cycles could have historically interacted through the potential exchange of wild triatomines (insect vectors of T. cruzi) and mammals carrying T. cruzi, due to the proximity of human settlements (urban and rural) to natural habitats. However, T. cruzi transmission cycles in recent times (i.e., 2011) have undergone a domiciliation process where several triatomines have colonized and adapted to human dwellings and domestic species (e.g., dogs and cats) that can be the main blood sources for these triatomines. Accordingly, Chagas disease could become an emerging health problem in urban areas. Projecting potential future range shifts of T. cruzi transmission cycles under LUCC-CC scenarios we found for RCP 2.6 no expansion of favourable conditions for the presence of T. cruzi transmission cycles. However, for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, a significant range expansion of T. cruzi could be expected. We conclude that if sustainable goals are reached by appropriate changes in socio-economic and development policies we can expect no increase in suitable habitats for T. cruzi transmission cycles.

Global, Regional, and National Trends of Chagas Disease from 1990 to 2019: Comprehensive Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background:

Chagas disease (CD) is a neglected tropical disease, endemic in Latin America, but due to migration and environmental changes it has become a global public health issue.

Objectives:

To assess the global prevalence and disability-adjusted life years due to CD using findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Methods:

The Global Burden of Disease data was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network; results were provided by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were described at a global, regional, and national level, including data from 1990 to 2019.

Results:

Globally, CD prevalence decreased by 11.3% during the study period, from 7,292,889 cases estimated in 1990 to 6,469,283 in 2019. Moreover, the global DALY rate of CD decreased by 23.7% during the evaluated period, from 360,872 in 1990 to 275,377 in 2019. In addition, significant differences in the burden by sex, being men the most affected, age, with the elderly having the highest burden of the disease, and sociodemographic index (SDI), with countries with the lowest SDI values having the highest prevalence of the disease, were observed. Finally, the prevalence trends have followed different patterns according to the region, with a sustained decrease in Latin America, compared to an increasing trend in North America and Europe until 2010.

Conclusion:

The global burden of CD has changed in recent decades, with a sustained decline in the number of cases. Although the majority of cases remain concentrated in Latin America, the increase observed in countries in North America and Europe highlights the importance of screening at-risk populations and raising awareness of this neglected tropical disease.

Worldwide Control and Management of Chagas Disease in a New Era of Globalization: a Close Look at Congenital Trypanosoma cruzi Infection

Population movements have turned Chagas disease (CD) into a global public health problem. Despite the successful implementation of subregional initiatives to control vectorial and transfusional Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in Latin American settings where the disease is endemic, congenital CD (cCD) remains a significant challenge. In countries where the disease is not endemic, vertical transmission plays a key role in CD expansion and is the main focus of its control. Although several health organizations provide general protocols for cCD control, its management in each geopolitical region depends on local authorities, which has resulted in a multitude of approaches. The aims of this review are to (i) describe the current global situation in CD management, with emphasis on congenital infection, and (ii) summarize the spectrum of available strategies, both official and unofficial, for cCD prevention and control in countries of endemicity and nonendemicity. From an economic point of view, the early detection and treatment of cCD are cost-effective. However, in countries where the disease is not endemic, national health policies for cCD control are nonexistent, and official regional protocols are scarce and restricted to Europe. Countries of endemicity have more protocols in place, but the implementation of diagnostic methods is hampered by economic constraints. Moreover, most protocols in both countries where the disease is endemic and those where it is not endemic have yet to incorporate recently developed technologies. The wide methodological diversity in cCD diagnostic algorithms reflects the lack of a consensus. This review may represent a first step toward the development of a common strategy, which will require the collaboration of health organizations, governments, and experts in the field.

Presence and potential distribution of malaria-infected New World primates of Costa Rica

Background

In South and Central America, Plasmodium malariae/Plasmodium brasilianum, Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium simium, and Plasmodium falciparum has been reported in New World primates (NWP). Specifically in Costa Rica, the presence of monkeys positive to P. malariae/P brasilianum has been identified in both captivity and in the wild. The aim of the present study was to determine the presence of P. brasilianum, P. falciparum, and P. vivax, and the potential distribution of these parasites-infecting NWP from Costa Rica.

Methods

The locations with PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) positive results and bioclimatic predictors were used to construct ecological niche models based on a modelling environment that uses the Maxent algorithm, named kuenm, capable to manage diverse settings to better estimate the potential distributions and uncertainty indices of the potential distribution.

Results

PCR analysis for the Plasmodium presence was conducted in 384 samples of four primates (Howler monkey [n = 130], White-face monkey [n = 132], Squirrel monkey [n = 50], and red spider monkey [n = 72]), from across Costa Rica. Three Plasmodium species were detected in all primate species (P. falciparum, P. malariae/P. brasilianum, and P. vivax). Overall, the infection prevalence was 8.9%, but each Plasmodium species ranged 2.1–3.4%. The niche model approach showed that the Pacific and the Atlantic coastal regions of Costa Rica presented suitable climatic conditions for parasite infections. However, the central pacific coast has a more trustable prediction for malaria in primates.

Conclusions

The results indicate that the regions with higher suitability for Plasmodium transmission in NWP coincide with regions where most human cases have been reported. These regions were also previously identified as areas with high suitability for vector species, suggesting that enzootic and epizootic cycles occur.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-04036-y.

The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a diverse group of diseases that continue to affect >1 billion people, with these diseases disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations and territories. Climate change is having an increasing impact on public health in tropical and subtropical areas and across the world and can affect disease distribution and transmission in potentially diverse ways. Improving our understanding of how climate change influences NTDs can help identify populations at risk to include in future public health interventions. Articles were identified by searching electronic databases for reports of climate change and NTDs between 1 January 2010 and 1 March 2020. Climate change may influence the emergence and re-emergence of multiple NTDs, particularly those that involve a vector or intermediate host for transmission. Although specific predictions are conflicting depending on the geographic area, the type of NTD and associated vectors and hosts, it is anticipated that multiple NTDs will have changes in their transmission period and geographic range and will likely encroach on regions and populations that have been previously unaffected. There is a need for improved surveillance and monitoring to identify areas of NTD incursion and emergence and include these in future public health interventions.

Assessing the Potential Distributions of the Invasive Mosquito Vector Aedes albopictus and Its Natural Wolbachia Infections in México

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is currently the most invasive vector species, with a widespread global distribution. Aedes albopictus is the potential vector of diverse arboviruses, including Zika and dengue. This study updated the ecological niche model of Ae. albopictus and inferred the potential distribution of natural Wolbachia infections in Ae. albopictus in México. The ecological niche models were constructed based on diverse model settings to better estimate the potential distributions and uncertainty indices of both Ae. albopictus and its natural Wolbachia infections in México. The distribution of Ae. albopictus covered the states across Northern México, the Gulf of México, the Pacific Coast of México, Central México, and the southeast of México. The ecological niche model of the natural Wolbachia infections in Ae. albopictus populations anticipated the occurrence of natural Wolbachia infections in the southeast of México, the Chiapas border with Guatemala, and Veracruz. These results can be used to prioritize vector surveillance and control programs in México for strategic and future decision-making; however, it is still necessary to establish active surveillance programs to assess model predictions based on the independent sampling of Ae. albopictus from different invasion zones in México. Finally, vector surveillance should also screen the natural Wolbachia infections in Ae. albopictus to validate Wolbachia predictions across México, particularly in the southeast of México.

Pattern of climate connectivity and equivalent niche of Triatominae species of the Phyllosoma complex

The Phyllosoma complex is a Triatominae (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) group of medical importance involved in Trypanosoma cruzi (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) transmission. Most of the members of this group are endemic and sympatric species with distribution in Mexico and the southern U.S.A. We employed MaxEnt to construct ecological niche models of nine species of Triatominae to test three hypothesis: (a) whether species with a broad climatic niche breadth occupy a broader geographical range than species with a narrow climatic breadth, (b) whether species with broad distribution present high degree of climatic fragmentation/isolation, which was tested through landscape metrics; and (c) whether the species share the same climatic niche space (niche conservatism) considered through an equivalence test implemented in ENMtools. Overall, our results suggest that the geographical distribution of this complex is influenced mainly by temperature seasonality where all suitable areas are places of current and potential transmission of T. cruzi. Niche breadth in the Phyllosoma complex is associated with the geographical distribution range, and the geographical range affects the climatic connectivity. We found no strong evidence of niche climatic divergence in members of this complex. We discuss the epidemiological implications of these results.

Geographic abundance patterns explained by niche centrality hypothesis in two Chagas disease vectors in Latin America

Ecoepidemiological scenarios for Chagas disease transmission are complex, so vector control measures to decrease human–vector contact and prevent infection transmission are difficult to implement in all geographic contexts. This study assessed the geographic abundance patterns of two vector species of Chagas disease: Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848) and Rhodnius pallescens (Barber, 1932) in Latin America. We modeled their potential distribution using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and calculated distances to their niche centroid by fitting a minimum-volume ellipsoid. In addition, to determine which method would accurately explain geographic abundance patterns, we compared the correlation between population abundance and the distance to the ecological niche centroid (DNC) and between population abundance and Maxent environmental suitability. The potential distribution estimated for T. maculata showed that environmental suitability covers a large area, from Panama to Northern Brazil. R. pallescens showed a more restricted potential distribution, with environmental suitability covering mostly the coastal zone of Costa Rica and some areas in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico, northern Colombia, Acre, and Rondônia states in Brazil, as well as a small region of the western Brazilian Amazon. We found a negative slope in the relationship between population abundance and the DNC in both species. R. pallecens has a more extensive potential latitudinal range than previously reported, and the distribution model for T. maculata corroborates previous studies. In addition, population abundance increases according to the niche centroid proximity, indicating that population abundance is limited by the set of scenopoetic variables at coarser scales (non-interactive variables) used to determine the ecological niche. These findings might be used by public health agencies in Latin America to implement actions and support programs for disease prevention and vector control, identifying areas in which to expand entomological surveillance and maintain chemical control, in order to decrease human–vector contact.

Slight temperature changes cause rapid transcriptomic responses in Trypanosoma cruzi metacyclic trypomastigotes

Background

Severe changes in temperature can affect the behavior and ecology of some infectious agents. Trypanosoma cruzi is a protozoan that causes Chagas disease. This parasite has high genetic variability and can be divided into six discrete typing units (DTUs). Trypanosoma cruzi also has a complex life-cycle, which includes the process of metacyclogenesis when non-infective epimastigote forms are differentiated into infective metacyclic trypomastigotes (MT). Studies in triatomines have shown that changes in temperature also affect the number and viability of MT.

Methods

The objective of this study was to evaluate how temperature affects the transcriptional profiles of T. cruzi I and II (TcI and TcII) MT by exposing parasites to two temperatures (27 °C and 28 °C) and comparing those to normal culture conditions at 26 °C. Subsequently, RNA-seq was conducted and differentially expressed genes were quantified and associated to metabolic pathways.

Results

A statistically significant difference was observed in the number of MT between the temperatures evaluated and the control, TcII DTU was not strongly affected to exposure to high temperatures compared to TcI. Similar results were found when we analyzed gene expression in this DTU, with the greatest number of differentially expressed genes being observed at 28 °C, which could indicate a dysregulation of different signaling pathways under this temperature. Chromosome analysis indicated that chromosome 1 harbored the highest number of changes for both DTUs for all thermal treatments. Finally, gene ontology (GO) analyses showed a decrease in the coding RNAs involved in the regulation of processes related to the metabolism of lipids and carbohydrates, the evasion of oxidative stress, and proteolysis and phosphorylation processes, and a decrease in RNAs coding to ribosomal proteins in TcI and TcII, along with an increase in the expression of surface metalloprotease GP63 in TcII.

Conclusions

Slight temperature shifts lead to increased cell death of metacyclic trypomastigotes because of the deregulation of gene expression of different processes essential for the TcI and TcII DTUs of T. cruzi.

Brain diseases in changing climate

Climate change is one of the biggest and most urgent challenges for the 21st century. Rising average temperatures and ocean levels, altered precipitation patterns and increased occurrence of extreme weather events affect not only the global landscape and ecosystem, but also human health. Multiple environmental factors influence the onset and severity of human diseases and changing climate may have a great impact on these factors. Climate shifts disrupt the quantity and quality of water, increase environmental pollution, change the distribution of pathogens and severely impacts food production - all of which are important regarding public health. This paper focuses on brain health and provides an overview of climate change impacts on risk factors specific to brain diseases and disorders. We also discuss emerging hazards in brain health due to mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate changes.

Activity of the prophenoloxidase system and survival of triatomines infected with different Trypanosoma cruzi strains under different temperatures: understanding Chagas disease in the face of climate change

BACKGROUND

Little is known about how human disease vectors will modify their life history patterns and survival capacity as a result of climate change. One case is that of Chagas disease, which has triatomine bugs and Trypanosoma cruzi as vectors and parasite, respectively. This work aimed to determine: (i) the activity of the prophenoloxidase system (prophenoloxidase and phenoloxidase activity, two indicators of immune ability) in three intestine regions (anterior midgut, posterior midgutand rectum) of the triatomine bug Meccus pallidipennis under three temperature conditions (20 °C, 30 °C and 34 °C) against two T. cruzi strains [ITRI/MX/14/CHIL (Chilpancingo) and ITRI/MX/12/MOR (Morelos)], and (ii) whether vector survival varies under these three temperatures after infection by these T. cruzi strains.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that prophenoloxidase activity was lower at higher temperatures, that the level of prophenoloxidase activity elicited by each strain was different (higher in Chilpancingo than in Morelos strains), and that prophenoloxidase activity was more intense in the anterior midgut than in the posterior midgut or rectum. Survival rates were lower in insects maintained at higher temperatures and infected by Chilpancingo strains.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that climate change could lead to lower prophenoloxidase activity and survival rates in triatomines when infected with different T. cruzi strains, which could reduce the vector capacity of M. pallidipennis.

Land subsidence hazard modeling: Machine learning to identify predictors and the role of human activities

Land subsidence caused by land use change and overexploitation of groundwater is an example of mismanagement of natural resources, yet subsidence remains difficult to predict. In this study, the relationship between land subsidence features and geo-environmental factors is investigated by comparing two machine learning algorithms (MLA): maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and genetic algorithm rule-set production (GARP) algorithms in the Kashmar Region, Iran. Land subsidence features (N = 79) were mapped using field surveys. Land use, lithology, the distance from traditional groundwater abstraction systems (Qanats), from afforestation projects, from neighboring faults, and the drawdown of groundwater level (DGL) (1991-2016) were used as predictive variables. Jackknife resampling showed that DGL, distance from afforestation projects, and distance from Qanat systems are major factors influencing land subsidence, with geology and faults being less important. The GARP algorithm outperformed the MaxEnt algorithm for all performance metrics. The performance of both models, as measured by the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUROC), decreased from 88.9-94.4% to 82.5-90.3% when DGL was excluded as a predictor, though the performance of GARP was still good to excellent even without DGL. MLAs produced maps of subsidence risk with acceptable accuracy, both with and without data on groundwater drawdown, suggesting that MLAs can usefully inform efforts to manage subsidence in data-scarce regions, though the highest accuracy requires data on changes in groundwater level.

Inferring distributional shifts of epidemiologically important North and Central American sandflies from Pleistocene to future scenarios

Nine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) are suspected or proven vectors of Leishmania spp. in the North and Central America region. The ecological niches for these nine species were modelled in three time periods and the overlaps for all time periods of the geographic predictions (G space), and of ecological dimensions using pairwise comparisons of equivalent niches (E space), were calculated. Two Nearctic, six Neotropical and one species in both bioregions occupied a reduced number of distribution areas. The ecological niche projections for most sandfly species other than Lutzomyia shannoni and Lutzomyia ovallesi have not expanded significantly since the Pleistocene. Only three species increase significantly to 2050, whereas all others remain stable. Lutzomyia longipalpis shared a similar ecological niche with more species than any other, although both L. longipalpis and Lutzomyia olmeca olmeca had conserved distributions over time. Climate change, at both regional and local levels, will play a significant role in the temporal and spatial distributions of sandfly species.