Phenological displacement is uncommon among sympatric angiosperms

Climate change increases flowering duration, driving phenological reassembly and elevated co-flowering richness

Changes to flowering phenology are a key response of plants to climate change. However, we know little about how these changes alter temporal patterns of reproductive overlap (i.e. phenological reassembly). We combined long-term field (1937-2012) and herbarium records (1850-2017) of 68 species in a flowering plant community in central North America and used a novel application of Bayesian quantile regression to estimate changes to flowering season length, altered richness and composition of co-flowering assemblages, and whether phenological shifts exhibit seasonal trends. Across the past century, phenological shifts increased species' flowering durations by 11.5 d on average, which resulted in 94% of species experiencing greater flowering overlap at the community level. Increases to co-flowering were particularly pronounced in autumn, driven by a greater tendency of late season species to shift the ending of flowering later and to increase flowering duration. Our results demonstrate that species-level phenological shifts can result in considerable phenological reassembly and highlight changes to flowering duration as a prominent, yet underappreciated, effect of climate change. The emergence of an autumn co-flowering mode emphasizes that these effects may be season-dependent.

Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

Plasticity and not adaptation is the primary source of temperature-mediated variation in flowering phenology in North America

Phenology varies widely over space and time because of its sensitivity to climate. However, whether phenological variation is primarily generated by rapid organismal responses (plasticity) or local adaptation remains unresolved. Here we used 1,038,027 herbarium specimens representing 1,605 species from the continental United States to measure flowering-time sensitivity to temperature over time (Stime) and space (Sspace). By comparing these estimates, we inferred how adaptation and plasticity historically influenced phenology along temperature gradients and how their contributions vary among species with different phenology and native climates and among ecoregions differing in species composition. Parameters Sspace and Stime were positively correlated (r = 0.87), of similar magnitude and more frequently consistent with plasticity than adaptation. Apparent plasticity and adaptation generated earlier flowering in spring, limited responsiveness in late summer and delayed flowering in autumn in response to temperature increases. Nonetheless, ecoregions differed in the relative contributions of adaptation and plasticity, from consistently greater importance of plasticity (for example, southeastern United States plains) to their nearly equal importance throughout the season (for example, Western Sierra Madre Piedmont). Our results support the hypothesis that plasticity is the primary driver of flowering-time variation along temperature gradients, with local adaptation having a widespread but comparatively limited role.

Sex-dependent phenological responses to climate vary across species' ranges

Anthropogenic climate change has significantly altered the flowering times (i.e., phenology) of plants worldwide, affecting their reproduction, survival, and interactions. Recent studies utilizing herbarium specimens have uncovered significant intra- and inter-specific variation in flowering phenology and its response to changes in climate but have mostly been limited to animal-pollinated species. Thus, despite their economic and ecological importance, variation in phenological responses to climate remain largely unexplored among and within wind-pollinated dioecious species and across their sexes. Using both herbarium specimens and volunteer observations of cottonwood (Populus) species, we examined how phenological sensitivity to climate varies across species, their ranges, sexes, and phenophases. The timing of flowering varied significantly across and within species, as did their sensitivity to spring temperature. In particular, male flowering generally happened earlier in the season and was more sensitive to warming than female flowering. Further, the onset of flowering was more sensitive to changes in temperature than leaf out. Increased temporal gaps between male and female flowering time and between the first open flower date and leaf out date were predicted for the future under two climate change scenarios. These shifts will impact the efficacy of sexual reproduction and gene flow among species. Our study demonstrates significant inter- and intra-specific variation in phenology and its responses to environmental cues, across species' ranges, phenophases, and sex, in wind-pollinated species. These variations need to be considered to predict accurately the effects of climate change and assess their ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Complex climate-mediated effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology and frost risk

Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited. Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering). Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions. Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales.

The herbarium of the future

The ~400 million specimens deposited across ~3000 herbaria are essential for: (i) understanding where plants have lived in the past, (ii) forecasting where they may live in the future, and (iii) delineating their conservation status. An open access 'global metaherbarium' is emerging as these specimens are digitized, mobilized, and interlinked online. This virtual biodiversity resource is attracting new users who are accelerating traditional applications of herbaria and generating basic and applied scientific innovations, including e-monographs and floras produced by diverse, interdisciplinary, and inclusive teams; robust machine-learning algorithms for species identification and phenotyping; collection and synthesis of ecological trait data at large spatiotemporal and phylogenetic scales; and exhibitions and installations that convey the beauty of plants and the value of herbaria in addressing broader societal issues.

Context-dependent concordance between physiological divergence and phenotypic selection in sister taxa with contrasting phenology and mating systems

PREMISE

The study of phenotypic divergence of, and selection on, functional traits in closely related taxa provides the opportunity to detect the role of natural selection in driving diversification. If the strength or direction of selection in field populations differs between taxa in a pattern that is consistent with the phenotypic difference between them, then natural selection reinforces the divergence. Few studies have sought evidence for such concordance for physiological traits.

METHODS

Herbarium specimen records were used to detect phenological differences between sister taxa independent of the effects on flowering time of long-term variation in the climate across collection sites. In the field, physiological divergence in photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate, and instantaneous water-use efficiency were recorded during vegetative growth and flowering in 13 field populations of two taxon pairs of Clarkia, each comprising a self-pollinating and a outcrossing taxon.

RESULTS

Historically, each selfing taxon flowered earlier than its outcrossing sister taxon, independent of the effects of local long-term climatic conditions. Sister taxa differed in all focal traits, but the degree and (in one case) the direction of divergence depended on life stage. In general, self-pollinating taxa had higher gas exchange rates, consistent with their earlier maturation. In 6 of 18 comparisons, patterns of selection were concordant with the phenotypic divergence (or lack thereof) between sister taxa.

CONCLUSIONS

Patterns of selection on physiological traits measured in heterogeneous conditions do not reliably reflect divergence between sister taxa, underscoring the need for replicated studies of the direction of selection within and among taxa.

The ecological implications of intra- and inter-species variation in phenological sensitivity

Plant-pollinator mutualisms rely upon the synchrony of interacting taxa. Climate change can disrupt this synchrony as phenological responses to climate vary within and across species. However, intra- and interspecific variation in phenological responses is seldom considered simultaneously, limiting our understanding of climate change impacts on interactions among taxa across their ranges. We investigated how variation in phenological sensitivity to climate can alter ecological interactions simultaneously within and among species using natural history collections and citizen science data. We focus on a unique system, comprising a wide-ranged spring ephemeral with varying color morphs (Claytonia virginica) and its specialist bee pollinator (Andrena erigeniae). We found strongly opposing trends in the phenological sensitivities of plants vs their pollinators. Flowering phenology was more sensitive to temperature in warmer regions, whereas bee phenology was more responsive in colder regions. Phenological sensitivity varied across flower color morphs. Temporal synchrony between flowering and pollinator activity was predicted to change heterogeneously across the species' ranges in the future. Our work demonstrates the complexity and fragility of ecological interactions in time and the necessity of incorporating variation in phenological responses across multiple axes to understand how such interactions will change in the future.

Leaf out time correlates with wood anatomy across large geographic scales and within local communities

There is a long-standing idea that the timing of leaf production in seasonally cold climates is linked to xylem anatomy, specifically vessel diameter because of the hydraulic requirements of expanding leaves. We tested for a relationship between the timing of leaf out and vessel diameter in 220 plants in three common gardens accounting for species' phylogenetic relationships. We investigated how vessel diameter related to wood porosity, plant height and leaf length. We also used dye perfusion tests to determine whether plants relied on xylem produced during the previous growing season at the time of leaf out. In all three gardens, there was later leaf out in species with wider vessels. Ring-porous species had the widest vessels, exhibited latest leaf out and relied less on xylem made during the previous growing season than diffuse-porous species. Wood anatomy and leaf phenology did not exhibit a phylogenetic signal. The timing of leaf out is correlated with wood anatomy across species regardless of species' geographic origin and phylogenetic relationships. This correlation could be a result of developmental and physiological links between leaves and wood or tied to a larger safety efficiency trade-off.

New directions in tropical phenology

Earth's most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a 'temperate phenological paradigm' expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical - and temperate - phenology.