Effects of experimental warming on biodiversity depend on ecosystem type and local species composition

Brownification increases the abundance of microorganisms related to carbon and nitrogen cycling in shallow lakes

Brownification in aquatic ecosystems under global change has attracted attention. The composition and quantity of dissolved organic matter transported from various land use types to lakes differ significantly, causing varying ecological effects of lake brownification by region. Bacterial communities make a significant contribution to the material cycle of ecosystems and are sensitive to environmental changes. In this study, a series of mesocosm systems were used to simulate forest lakes and urban lakes with different degrees of brownification, and a high-throughput amplicon sequencing technique was used to explore the changes in the composition, structure, and function of bacterial communities in shallow lakes undergoing brownification. Principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and Jensen‒Shannon distance typing analysis both indicated significant differences in bacterial communities between forest lakes and urban lakes. The α diversity of bacterial communities in urban lakes increased with the degree of brownification. However, whether forest lakes or urban lakes, brownification increased the abundance of carbon cycling-related bacterial phyla (Proteobacteria, Poribacteria, and Chloroflexi) and nitrogen cycling-related bacterial genera (Microbacteriaceae, Limnohabitans, Comamonadaceae, Bacillus, and Rhizobiales_Incertae_Sedis). Additionally, the carbon and nitrogen cycling functions of bacterial communities in forest lakes are dominant, while those in urban lakes are dominated by functions related to light. Our study has preliminarily revealed that lake brownification promotes the growth of carbon and nitrogen cycling microorganisms, providing a new paradigm for understanding the response of lake ecosystems in different catchment areas to environmental changes and the carbon and nitrogen cycling processes in shallow lake ecosystems.

Land use modulates resistance of grasslands against future climate and inter-annual climate variability in a large field experiment

Climate and land-use change are key drivers of global change. Full-factorial field experiments in which both drivers are manipulated are essential to understand and predict their potentially interactive effects on the structure and functioning of grassland ecosystems. Here, we present 8 years of data on grassland dynamics from the Global Change Experimental Facility in Central Germany. On large experimental plots, temperature and seasonal patterns of precipitation are manipulated by superimposing regional climate model projections onto background climate variability. Climate manipulation is factorially crossed with agricultural land-use scenarios, including intensively used meadows and extensively used (i.e., low-intensity) meadows and pastures. Inter-annual variation of background climate during our study years was high, including three of the driest years on record for our region. The effects of this temporal variability far exceeded the effects of the experimentally imposed climate change on plant species diversity and productivity, especially in the intensively used grasslands sown with only a few grass cultivars. These changes in productivity and diversity in response to alterations in climate were due to immigrant species replacing the target forage cultivars. This shift from forage cultivars to immigrant species may impose additional economic costs in terms of a decreasing forage value and the need for more frequent management measures. In contrast, the extensively used grasslands showed weaker responses to both experimentally manipulated future climate and inter-annual climate variability, suggesting that these diverse grasslands are more resistant to climate change than intensively used, species-poor grasslands. We therefore conclude that a lower management intensity of agricultural grasslands, associated with a higher plant diversity, can stabilize primary productivity under climate change.

Planktonic and early-stage biofilm microbiota respond contrastingly to thermal discharge-created seawater warming

Thermal-discharges from power plants highly disturb the biological communities of the receiving water body and understanding their influence is critical, given the relevance to global warming. We employed 16 S rRNA gene sequencing to examine the response of two dominant marine bacterial lifestyles (planktonic and biofilm) against elevated seawater temperature (+5 ℃). Obtained results demonstrated that warming prompted high heterogeneity in diversity and composition of planktonic and biofilm microbiota, albeit both communities responded contrastingly. Alpha diversity revealed that temperature exhibited positive effect on biofilm microbiota and negative effect on planktonic microbiota. The community composition of planktonic microbiota shifted significantly in warming area, with decreased abundances of Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria, and Actinobacteria. Contrastingly, these bacterial groups exhibited opposite trend in biofilm microbiota. Co-occurrence networks of biofilm microbiota displayed higher node diversity and co-presence in warming area. The study concludes that with increasing ocean warming, marine biofilms and biofouling management strategies will be more challenging.

Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead

Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Porewater constituents inhibit microbially mediated greenhouse gas production (GHG) and regulate the response of soil organic matter decomposition to warming in anoxic peat from a Sphagnum-dominated bog

Northern peatlands store approximately one-third of terrestrial soil carbon. Climate warming is expected to stimulate the microbially mediated degradation of peat soil organic matter (SOM), leading to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG; carbon dioxide, CO2; methane, CH4) production and emission. Porewater dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays a key role in SOM decomposition; however, the mechanisms controlling SOM decomposition and its response to warming remain unclear. The temperature dependence of GHG production and microbial community dynamics were investigated in anoxic peat from a Sphagnum-dominated peatland. In this study, peat decomposition, which was quantified by GHG production and carbon substrate utilization is limited by terminal electron acceptors (TEA) and DOM, and these controls of microbially mediated SOM degradation are temperature-dependent. Elevated temperature led to a slight decrease in microbial diversity, and stimulated the growth of specific methanotrophic and syntrophic taxa. These results confirm that DOM is a major driver of decomposition in peatland soils contains inhibitory compounds, but the inhibitory effect is alleviated by warming.

Phytoplankton Community Response to Environmental Factors along a Salinity Gradient in a Seagoing River, Tianjin, China

A river-estuary ecosystem usually features a distinct salinity gradient and a complex water environment, so it is enormously valuable to study the response mechanism of living organisms to multiple abiotic factors under salinity stress. Phytoplankton, as an important part of aquatic microorganisms, has always been of concern for its crucial place in the aquatic ecosystem. In this study, phytoplankton data and 18 abiotic factors collected from 15 stations in Duliujian River, a seagoing river, were investigated in different seasons. The results showed that the river studied was of a Cyanophyta-dominant type. Salinity (SAL) was the key control factor for phytoplankton species richness, while water temperature (WT) was critical not only for species richness, but also community diversity, and the abundance and biomass of dominant species. Apart from WT, the abundance and biomass of dominant species were also driven by total nitrogen (TN), nitrate (NO₃^-), pH, and water transparency (SD). Moreover, total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), pH, and chemical oxygen demand (COD) were crucial for community diversity and evenness. The bloom of dominant species positively associated with TDP led to lower diversity and evenness in autumn. In addition, when available nitrogen was limited, Pseudoanabaena sp. could obtain a competitive advantage through the N₂ fixation function. Increased available nitrogen concentration could favor the abundance of Chlorella vulgaris to resist the negative effect of WT. The results show that Oscillatoria limosa could serve as an indicator of organic contamination, and nutrient-concentration control must be effective to inhibit Microcystis bloom. This could help managers to formulate conservation measures.

Long-Term Warming of Baltic Sea Coastal Waters Affects Bacterial Communities in Bottom Water and Sediments Differently

Coastal marine ecosystems are some of the most diverse natural habitats while being highly vulnerable in the face of climate change. The combination of anthropogenic influence from land and ongoing climate change will likely have severe effects on the environment, but the precise response remains uncertain. This study compared an unaffected "control" Baltic Sea bay to a "heated" bay that has undergone artificial warming from cooling water release from a nuclear power plant for ~50 years. This heated the water in a similar degree to IPCC SSP5-8.5 predictions by 2100 as natural systems to study temperature-related climate change effects. Bottom water and surface sediment bacterial communities and their biogeochemical processes were investigated to test how future coastal water warming alters microbial communities; shifts seasonal patterns, such as increased algae blooming; and influences nutrient and energy cycling, including elevated respiration rates. 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and geochemical parameters demonstrated that heated bay bottom water bacterial communities were influenced by increased average temperatures across changing seasons, resulting in an overall Shannon's H diversity loss and shifts in relative abundances. In contrast, Shannon's diversity increased in the heated surface sediments. The results also suggested a trend toward smaller-sized microorganisms within the heated bay bottom waters, with a 30% increased relative abundance of small size picocyanobacteria in the summer (June). Furthermore, bacterial communities in the heated bay surface sediment displayed little seasonal variability but did show potential changes of long-term increased average temperature in the interplay with related effects on bottom waters. Finally, heated bay metabolic gene predictions from the 16S rRNA gene sequences suggested raised anaerobic processes closer to the sediment-water interface. In conclusion, climate change will likely alter microbial seasonality and diversity, leading to prolonged and increased algae blooming and elevated respiration rates within coastal waters.

Weakened resilience of benthic microbial communities in the face of climate change

Increased ocean temperature associated with climate change is especially intensified in coastal areas and its influence on microbial communities and biogeochemical cycling is poorly understood. In this study, we sampled a Baltic Sea bay that has undergone 50 years of warmer temperatures similar to RCP5-8.5 predictions due to cooling water release from a nuclear power plant. The system demonstrated reduced oxygen concentrations, decreased anaerobic electron acceptors, and higher rates of sulfate reduction. Chemical analyses, 16S rRNA gene amplicons, and RNA transcripts all supported sediment anaerobic reactions occurring closer to the sediment-water interface. This resulted in higher microbial diversities and raised sulfate reduction and methanogenesis transcripts, also supporting increased production of toxic sulfide and the greenhouse gas methane closer to the sediment surface, with possible release to oxygen deficient waters. RNA transcripts supported prolonged periods of cyanobacterial bloom that may result in increased climate change related coastal anoxia. Finally, while metatranscriptomics suggested increased energy production in the heated bay, a large number of stress transcripts indicated the communities had not adapted to the increased temperature and had weakened resilience. The results point to a potential feedback loop, whereby increased temperatures may amplify negative effects at the base of coastal biochemical cycling.

High-Resolution Transect Sampling and Multiple Scale Diversity Analyses for Evaluating Grassland Resilience to Climatic Extremes

Diversity responses to climatic factors in plant communities are well understood from experiments, but less known in natural conditions due to the rarity of appropriate long-term observational data. In this paper, we use long-term transect data sampled annually in three natural grasslands of different species pools, soils, landscape contexts and land use histories. Analyzing these specific belt transect data of contiguous small sampling units enabled us to explore scale dependence and spatial synchrony of diversity patterns within and among sites. The 14-year study period covered several droughts, including one extreme event between 2011 and 2012. We demonstrated that all natural grasslands responded to droughts by considerable fluctuations of diversity, but, overall, they remained stable. The plant functional group of annuals showed high resilience at all sites, while perennials were resistant to droughts. Our results were robust to changing spatial scales of observations, and we also demonstrated that within-site spatial synchrony could be used as a sensitive indicator of external climatic effects. We propose the broad application of high-resolution belt transects for powerful and adaptive vegetation monitoring in the future.

Do southern seed or soil microbes mitigate the effects of warming on establishing prairie plant communities?

Restoration in this era of climate change comes with a new challenge: anticipating how best to restore populations to persist under future climate conditions. Specifically, it remains unknown whether locally adapted or warm-adapted seeds best promote native plant community restoration in the warmer conditions predicted in the future and whether local or warm-adapted soil microbial communities could mitigate plant responses to warming. This may be especially relevant for biomes spanning large climatic gradients, such as the North American tallgrass prairie. Here, we used a short-term mesocosm experiment to evaluate how seed provenances (Local Northern region, Non-local Northern region, Non-local Southern region) of 10 native tallgrass prairie plants (four forbs, two legumes, and four grasses) responded to warmer conditions predicted in the future and how soil microbial communities from those three regions influenced these responses. Warming and seed provenance affected plant community composition and warming decreased plant diversity for all three seed provenances. Plant species varied in their individual responses to warming, and across species, we detected no consistent differences among the three provenances in terms of biomass response to warming and few strong effects of soil provenance. Our work provides evidence that warming, in part, may reduce plant diversity and affect restored prairie composition. Because the southern provenance did not consistently outperform others under warming and we found little support for the "local is best" paradigm currently dominating restoration practice, identifying appropriate seed provenances to promote restoration success both now and in future warmer environments may be challenging. Due to the idiosyncratic responses across species, we recommend that land managers compare seeds from different regions for each species to determine which seed provenance performs best under warming and in restoration for tallgrass prairies.

Marine heat waves differentially affect functioning of native (Ostrea edulis) and invasive (Crassostrea [Magallana] gigas) oysters in tidal pools

The frequency and duration of short-term extreme climatic events, such as marine heat waves (MHWs), are increasing worldwide. The rapid onset of MHWs can lead to short-term stress responses in organisms that may have lethal or sub-lethal effects. In addition, increased temperature variability and extremes are predicted to favour and facilitate the spread of non-native species, altering rates of key ecosystem processes and functions. It is possible, however, that compensatory mechanisms, such as increased feeding rates, may enable the maintenance of metabolic functioning and prevent detrimental temperature effects. Using a mesocosm-based approach, we experimentally tested for the effects of MHWs in tidal pools on the mortality, individual length, width and biomass, and respiration rates for both a native oyster, Ostrea edulis, and invasive oyster, Magallana gigas, with or without food supply. No mortality was recorded for either O. edulis or M. gigas for the duration of the four week experiment. Increases in length were greater in O. edulis compared to M. gigas but were not affected by temperature or food supply. Increases in width, however, did not differ between species but were reduced overall in heat wave treatments regardless of food supply. O. edulis gained more biomass than M. gigas in ambient treatments regardless of food supply but, in heat wave treatments, only gained greater biomass than M. gigas at additional levels of food supply. Respiration rates did not reflect changes in temperature or food supply in either species but differed through time, with greater rates post-heat wave in all treatments. Thermal responses of O. edulis and M. gigas to MHWs thus appear to be context dependent and, if food supply is sufficient, O. edulis may be able to maintain its presence in the intertidal. The ability of M. gigas to remain unaffected by fluctuating environmental conditions, however, suggests future resilience of invasive populations to climatic extremes that may result in competitive exclusion and a further decline in native oyster populations. This information is critical for developing effective management plans to ensure the sustainability of natural oyster populations whilst maintaining key ecosystem functioning.

Warming and top predator loss drive direct and indirect effects on multiple trophic groups within and across ecosystems

The interspecific interactions within and between adjacent ecosystems strongly depend on the changes in their abiotic and biotic components. However, little is known about how climate change and biodiversity loss in a specific ecosystem can impact the multiple trophic interactions of different biological groups within and across ecosystems. We used natural microecosystems (tank-bromeliads) as a model system to investigate the main and interactive effects of aquatic warming and aquatic top predator loss (i.e. trophic downgrading) on trophic relationships in three integrated food web compartments: (a) aquatic micro-organisms, (b) aquatic macro-organisms and (c) terrestrial predators (i.e. via cross-ecosystem effects). The aquatic top predator loss substantially impacted the three food web compartments. In the aquatic macrofauna compartment, trophic downgrading increased the filter feeder richness and abundance directly and indirectly via an increase in detritivore richness, likely through a facilitative interaction. For the microbiota compartment, aquatic top predator loss had a negative effect on algae richness, probably via decreasing the input of nutrients from predator biological activities. Furthermore, the more active terrestrial predators responded more to aquatic top predator loss, via an increase in some components of aquatic macrofauna, than more stationary terrestrial predators. The aquatic trophic downgrading indirectly altered the richness and abundance of cursorial terrestrial predators, but these effects had different direction according to the aquatic functional group, filter feeder or other detritivores. The web-building predators were indirectly affected by aquatic trophic downgrading due to increased filter feeder richness. Aquatic warming did not affect the aquatic micro- or macro-organisms but did positively affect the abundance of web-building terrestrial predators. These results allow us to raise a predictive framework of how different anthropogenic changes predicted for the next decades, such as aquatic warming and top predator loss, could differentially affect multiple biological groups through interactions within and across ecosystems.

Phytoplankton biodiversity is more important for ecosystem functioning in highly variable thermal environments

The 21st century has seen an acceleration of anthropogenic climate change and biodiversity loss, with both stressors deemed to affect ecosystem functioning. However, we know little about the interactive effects of both stressors and in particular about the interaction of increased climatic variability and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning. This should be remedied because larger climatic variability is one of the main features of climate change. Here, we demonstrated that temperature fluctuations led to changes in the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem functioning. We used microcosm communities of different phytoplankton species richness and exposed them to a constant, mild, and severe temperature-fluctuating environment. Wider temperature fluctuations led to steeper biodiversity-ecosystem functioning slopes, meaning that species loss had a stronger negative effect on ecosystem functioning in more fluctuating environments. For severe temperature fluctuations, the slope increased through time due to a decrease of the productivity of species-poor communities over time. We developed a theoretical competition model to better understand our experimental results and showed that larger differences in thermal tolerances across species led to steeper biodiversity-ecosystem functioning slopes. Species-rich communities maintained their ecosystem functioning with increased fluctuation as they contained species able to resist the thermally fluctuating environments, while this was on average not the case in species-poor communities. Our results highlight the importance of biodiversity for maintaining ecosystem functions and services in the context of increased climatic variability under climate change.

The impact of climate warming on species diversity across scales: Lessons from experimental meta-ecosystems

AIM

The aim was to evaluate the effects of climate warming on biodiversity across spatial scales (i.e., α-, β- and γ-diversity) and the effects of patch openness and experimental context on diversity responses.

LOCATION

Global.

TIME PERIOD

1995-2017.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Fungi, invertebrates, phytoplankton, plants, seaweed, soil microbes and zooplankton.

METHODS

We compiled data from warming experiments and conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of warming on different components of diversity (such as species richness and equivalent numbers) at different spatial scales (α-, β- and γ-diversity, partitioning β-diversity into species turnover and nestedness components). We also investigated how these effects were modulated by system openness, defined as the possibility of replicates being colonized by new species, and experimental context (duration, mean temperature change and ecosystem type).

RESULTS

Experimental warming did not affect local species richness (α-diversity) but decreased effective numbers of species by affecting species dominance. Warming increased species spatial turnover (β-diversity), although no significant changes were detected at the regional scale (γ-diversity). Site openness and experimental context did not significantly affect our results, despite significant heterogeneity in the effect sizes of α- and β-diversity.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis shows that the effects of warming on biodiversity are scale dependent. The local and regional inventory diversity remain unaltered, whereas species composition across temperature gradients and the patterns of species dominance change with temperature, creating novel communities that might be harder to predict.

The ecological impacts of multiple environmental stressors on coastal biofilm bacteria

Ecological communities are increasingly exposed to multiple interacting stressors. For example, warming directly affects the physiology of organisms, eutrophication stimulates the base of the food web, and harvesting larger organisms for human consumption dampens top-down control. These stressors often combine in the natural environment with unpredictable results. Bacterial communities in coastal ecosystems underpin marine food webs and provide many important ecosystem services (e.g. nutrient cycling and carbon fixation). Yet, how microbial communities will respond to a changing climate remains uncertain. Thus, we used marine mesocosms to examine the impacts of warming, nutrient enrichment, and altered top-predator population size structure (common shore crab) on coastal microbial biofilm communities in a crossed experimental design. Warming increased bacterial α-diversity (18% increase in species richness and 67% increase in evenness), but this was countered by a decrease in α-diversity with nutrient enrichment (14% and 21% decrease for species richness and evenness, respectively). Thus, we show some effects of these stressors could cancel each other out under climate change scenarios. Warming and top-predator population size structure both affected bacterial biofilm community composition, with warming increasing the abundance of bacteria capable of increased mineralization of dissolved and particulate organic matter, such as Flavobacteriia, Sphingobacteriia, and Cytophagia. However, the community shifts observed with warming depended on top-predator population size structure, with Sphingobacteriia increasing with smaller crabs and Cytophagia increasing with larger crabs. These changes could alter the balance between mineralization and carbon sequestration in coastal ecosystems, leading to a positive feedback loop between warming and CO₂ production. Our results highlight the potential for warming to disrupt microbial communities and biogeochemical cycling in coastal ecosystems, and the importance of studying these effects in combination with other environmental stressors.

Responses of plant diversity to precipitation change are strongest at local spatial scales and in drylands

Mitigating and adapting to climate change requires an understanding of the magnitude and nature by which climate change will influence the diversity of plants across the world’s ecosystems. Experiments can causally link precipitation change to plant diversity change, however, these experiments vary in their methods and in the diversity metrics reported, making synthesis elusive. Here, we explicitly account for a number of potentially confounding variables, including spatial grain, treatment magnitude and direction and background climatic conditions, to synthesize data across 72 precipitation manipulation experiments. We find that the effects of treatments with higher magnitude of precipitation manipulation on plant diversity are strongest at the smallest spatial scale, and in drier environments. Our synthesis emphasizes that quantifying differential responses of ecosystems requires explicit consideration of spatial grain and the magnitude of experimental manipulation. Given that diversity provides essential ecosystem services, especially in dry and semi-dry areas, our finding that these dry ecosystems are particular sensitive to projected changes in precipitation has important implications for their conservation and management.

The responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in precipitation patterns are highly context-dependent. Here the authors perform a quantitative synthesis of field rainfall manipulation experiments, showing stronger effects of precipitation on plant diversity at small spatial scales and in arid biomes.

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

The Shrinking Resource Base of Pastoralism: Saami Reindeer Husbandry in a Climate of Change

The productive performance of large ungulates in extensive pastoral grazing systems is modulated simultaneously by the effects of climate change and human intervention independent of climate change. The latter includes the expansion of private, civil and military activity and infrastructure and the erosion of land rights. We used Saami reindeer husbandry in Norway as a model in which to examine trends in, and to compare the influence of, both effects on a pastoral grazing system. Downscaled projections of mean annual temperature over the principal winter pasture area (Finnmarksvidda) closely matched empirical observations across 34 years to 2018. The area, therefore, is not only warming but seems likely to continue to do so. Warming notwithstanding, 50-year (1969–2018) records of local weather (temperature, precipitation and characteristics of the snowpack) demonstrate considerable annual and decadal variation which also seems likely to continue and alternately to amplify and to counter net warming. Warming, moreover, has both positive and negative effects on ecosystem services that influence reindeer. The effects of climate change on reindeer pastoralism are evidently neither temporally nor spatially uniform, nor indeed is the role of climate change as a driver of change in pastoralism even clear. The effects of human intervention on the system, by contrast, are clear and largely negative. Gradual liberalization of grazing rights from the 18th Century has been countered by extensive loss of reindeer pasture. Access to ~50% of traditional winter pasture was lost in the 19th Century owing to the closure of international borders to the passage of herders and their reindeer. Subsequent to this the area of undisturbed pasture within Norway has decreased by 71%. Loss of pasture due to piecemeal development of infrastructure and to administrative encroachment that erodes herders' freedom of action on the land that remains to them, are the principal threats to reindeer husbandry in Norway today. These tangible effects far exceed the putative effects of current climate change on the system. The situation confronting Saami reindeer pastoralism is not unique: loss of pasture and administrative, economic, legal and social constraints bedevil extensive pastoral grazing systems across the globe.

Warming and leaf litter functional diversity, not litter quality, drive decomposition in a freshwater ecosystem

Environment, litter composition and decomposer community are known to be the main drivers of litter decomposition in aquatic ecosystems. However, it remains unclear whether litter quality or functional diversity prevails under warming conditions. Using tank bromeliad ecosystems, we evaluated the combined effects of warming, litter quality and litter functional diversity on the decomposition process. We also assessed the contribution of macroinvertebrates and microorganisms in explaining litter decomposition patterns using litter bags made with different mesh sizes. Our results showed that litter decomposition was driven by litter functional diversity and was increasingly higher under warming, in both mesh sizes. Decomposition was explained by increasing litter dissimilarities in C and N. Our results highlight the importance of considering different aspects of litter characteristics (e.g., quality and functional diversity) in order to predict the decomposition process in freshwater ecosystems. Considering the joint effect of warming and litter traits aspects allow a more refined understanding of the underlying mechanisms of climate change and biodiversity shifts effects on ecosystem functioning.

Assessing the Effectiveness of in-situ Active Warming Combined With Open Top Chambers to Study Plant Responses to Climate Change

Temperature manipulation experiments are an effective way for testing plant responses to future climate conditions, especially for predicting shifts in plant phenological events. While passive warming techniques are widely used to elevate temperature in low stature plant communities, active warming has been applied less frequently due to the associated resource requirements. In forest ecosystems, however, active warming is crucial to simulate projected air temperature rises of 3-5 K, especially at the warm (i.e., southern and low elevation) range edges of tree species. Moreover, the warming treatment should be applied to the complete height of the experimental plants, e.g., regenerating trees in the understory. Here, we combined open top chambers (OTCs) with active heat sources, an electric heater (OTC-EH) and warming cables (OTC-WC), and tested the effectiveness of these set-ups to maintain constant temperature differences compared to ambient temperature across 18 m² plots. This chamber size is needed to grow tree saplings in mixture in forest gaps for 3 to 10 years. With passive warming only, an average temperature increase of approx. 0.4 K as compared to ambient conditions was achieved depending on time of the day and weather conditions. In the actively warmed chambers, average warming exceeded ambient temperatures by 2.5 to 2.8 K and was less variable over time. However, active warming also reduced air humidity by about 15%. These results underline the need to complement passive warming with active warming in order to achieve constant temperature differences appropriate for climate change simulations under all weather conditions in large OTCs. Since we observed considerable horizontal and vertical temperature variation within OTCs with temperature differences of up to 16.9 K, it is essential to measure and report within-plot temperature distribution as well as temporal temperature variation. If temperature distributions within large OTCs are well characterized, they may be incorporated in the experimental design helping to identify non-linear or threshold responses to warming.

Individual variation and interactions explain food web responses to global warming

Understanding food web responses to global warming, and their consequences for conservation and management, requires knowledge on how responses vary both among and within species. Warming can reduce both species richness and biomass production. However, warming responses observed at different levels of biological organization may seem contradictory. For example, higher temperatures commonly lead to faster individual body growth but can decrease biomass production of fishes. Here we show that the key to resolve this contradiction is intraspecific variation, because (i) community dynamics emerge from interactions among individuals, and (ii) ecological interactions, physiological processes and warming effects often vary over life history. By combining insights from temperature-dependent dynamic models of simple food webs, observations over large temperature gradients and findings from short-term mesocosm and multi-decadal whole-ecosystem warming experiments, we resolve mechanisms by which warming waters can affect food webs via individual-level responses and review their empirical support. We identify a need for warming experiments on food webs manipulating population size structures to test these mechanisms. We stress that within-species variation in both body size, temperature responses and ecological interactions are key for accurate predictions and appropriate conservation efforts for fish production and food web function under a warming climate.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Simulated climate change, but not predation risk, accelerates Aedes aegypti emergence in a microcosm experiment in western Amazonia

Climate change affects individual life-history characteristics and species interactions, including predator-prey interactions. While effects of warming on Aedes aegypti adults are well known, clarity the interactive effects of climate change (temperature and CO₂ concentration) and predation risk on the larval stage remains unexplored. In this study, we performed a microcosm experiment simulating temperature and CO₂ changes in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, for the year 2100. Simulated climate change scenarios (SCCS) were in accordance with the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Used SCCS were: Control (real-time current conditions in Manaus: average temperature is ~25.76°C ± 0.71°C and ~477.26 ± 9.38 parts per million by volume (ppmv) CO₂); Light: increase of ~1,7°C and ~218 ppmv CO₂; Intermediate: increase of ~2.4°C and ~446 ppmv CO₂; and Extreme: increase of ~4.5°C and ~861 ppmv CO2, all increases were relative to a Control SCCS. Light, Intermediate and Extreme SCCS reproduced, respectively, the B1, A1B, and A2 climatic scenarios predicted by IPCC (2007). We analyzed Aedes aegypti larval survivorship and adult emergence pattern with a factorial design combining predation risk (control and predator presence–Toxorhynchites haemorrhoidalis larvae) and SCCS. Neither SCCS nor predation risk affected Aedes aegypti larval survivorship, but adult emergence pattern was affected by SCCS. Accordingly, our results did not indicate interactive effects of SCCS and predation risk on larval survivorship and emergence pattern of Aedes aegypti reared in SCCS in western Amazonia. Aedes aegypti is resistant to SCCS conditions tested, mainly due to high larval survivorship, even under Extreme SCCS, and warmer scenarios increase adult Aedes aegypti emergence. Considering that Aedes aegypti is a health problem in western Amazonia, an implication of our findings is that the use of predation cues as biocontrol strategies will not provide a viable means of controlling the accelerated adult emergence expected under the IPCC climatic scenarios.

Relationships between glucocorticoids and infection with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in three amphibian species

It is often hypothesized that organisms exposed to environmental change may experience physiological stress, which could reduce individual quality and make them more susceptible to disease. Amphibians are amongst the most threatened taxa, particularly in the context of disease, but relatively few studies explore links between stress and disease in amphibian species. Here, we use the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and amphibians as an example to explore relationships between disease and glucocorticoids (GCs), metabolic hormones that comprise one important component of the stress response. While previous work is limited, it has largely identified positive relationships between GCs and Bd-infection. However, the causality remains unclear and few studies have integrated both baseline (GC release that is related to standard, physiological functioning) and stress-induced (GC release in response to an acute stressor) measures of GCs. Here, we examine salivary corticosterone before and after exposure to a stressor, in both field and captive settings. We present results for Bd-infected and uninfected individuals of three amphibian species with differential susceptibilities to this pathogen (Rana catesbeiana, R. clamitans, and R. sylvatica). We hypothesized that prior to stress, baseline GCs would be higher in Bd-infected animals, particularly in more Bd-susceptible species. We also expected that after exposure to a stressor, stress-induced GCs would be lower in Bd-infected animals. These species exhibited significant interspecific differences in baseline and stress induced corticosterone, though other variables like sex, body size, and day of year were usually not predictive of corticosterone. In contrast to most previous work, we found no relationships between Bd and corticosterone for two species (R. catesbeiana and R. clamitans), and in the least Bd-tolerant species (R. sylvatica) animals exhibited context-dependent differences in relationships between Bd infection and corticosterone: Bd-positive R. sylvatica had significantly lower baseline and stress-induced corticosterone, with this pattern being stronger in the field than in captivity. These results were surprising, as past work in other species has more often found elevated GCs in Bd-positive animals, a pattern that aligns with well-documented relationships between chronically high GCs, reduced individual quality, and immunosuppression. This work highlights the potential relevance of GCs to disease susceptibility in the context of amphibian declines, while underscoring the importance of characterizing these relationships in diverse contexts.

Impact of Warming on Greenhouse Gas Production and Microbial Diversity in Anoxic Peat From a Sphagnum-Dominated Bog (Grand Rapids, Minnesota, United States)

Climate warming is predicted to increase heterotrophic metabolism in northern peatland soils leading to enhanced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the specific relationships between temperature and the greenhouse gas producing microbial communities are poorly understood. Thus, in this study, the temperature dependence of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) production rates along with abundance and composition of microbial communities were investigated in peat from a Sphagnum-dominated peatland, S1 bog (Minnesota, United States). Whereas CH4 production rates increased with temperature up to 30°C, CO2 production did not, resulting in a lower CO2:CH4 ratio with increasing temperature. CO2 production showed both psychrophilic and mesophilic maxima at 4 and 20°C, respectively, and appears to be mediated by two anaerobic microbial communities, one that operates under psychrophilic conditions that predominate for much of the year, and another that is more active under warmer conditions during the growing season. In incubations at 10°C above the ambient range, members of the Clostridiaceae and hydrogenotrophic methanogens of the Methanobacteriaceae dominated. Moreover, a significant negative correlation between temperature and microbial diversity was observed. Results indicate that the potential consequences of warming surface peat in northern peatlands include a large stimulation in CH4 production and a significant loss of microbial diversity.

A niche for ecosystem multifunctionality in global change research

Concern about human modification of Earth's ecosystems has recently motivated ecologists to address how global change drivers will impact the simultaneous provisioning of multiple functions, termed ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF). However, metrics of EMF have often been applied in global change studies with little consideration of the information they provide beyond single functions, or how and why EMF may respond to global change drivers. Here, we critically review the current state of this rapidly expanding field and provide a conceptual framework to guide the effective incorporation of EMF in global change research. In particular, we emphasize the need for a priori identification and explicit testing of the biotic and abiotic mechanisms through which global change drivers impact EMF, as well as assessing correlations among multiple single functions because these patterns underlie shifts in EMF. While the role of biodiversity in mediating global change effects on EMF has justifiably received much attention, empirical support for effects via other biotic and physicochemical mechanisms are also needed. Studies also frequently stated the importance of measuring EMF responses to global change drivers to understand the potential consequences for multiple ecosystem services, but explicit links between measured functions and ecosystem services were missing from many such studies. While there is clear potential for EMF to provide novel insights to global change research, predictive understanding will be greatly improved by insuring future research is strongly hypothesis-driven, is designed to explicitly test multiple abiotic and biotic mechanisms, and assesses how single functions and their covariation drive emergent EMF responses to global change drivers.

How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate?

To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs. unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6  ∘ C (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1  ∘ C (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2  ∘ C (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non-temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design, and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species' responses.

Combined effects of warming and nutrients on marine communities are moderated by predators and vary across functional groups

Warming, nutrient enrichment and biodiversity modification are among the most pervasive components of human-induced global environmental change. We know little about their cumulative effects on ecosystems; however, even though this knowledge is fundamental to predicting and managing their consequences in a changing world. Here, we show that shifts in predator species composition can moderate both the individual and combined effects of warming and nutrient enrichment in marine systems. However, all three aspects of global change also acted independently to alter different functional groups in our flow-through marine rock-pool mesocosms. Specifically, warming reduced macroalgal biomass and assemblage productivity, whereas enrichment led to increased abundance of meso-invertebrate consumers, and loss of predator species led to increased gastropod grazer biomass. This disparity in responses, both across trophic levels (macroalgae and intermediate consumers), and between detecting additive effects on aggregate measures of ecosystem functioning, yet interactive effects on community composition, illustrates that our forecasting ability depends strongly on the level of ecological complexity incorporated within global change experiments. We conclude that biodiversity change-and loss of predator species in particular-plays a critical and overarching role in determining how ecological communities respond to stressors.

Unicellular Eukaryotic Community Response to Temperature and Salinity Variation in Mesocosm Experiments

Climate change has profound impacts on marine biodiversity and biodiversity changes in turn might affect the community sensitivity to impacts of abiotic changes. We used mesocosm experiments and Next Generation Sequencing to study the response of the natural Baltic and Mediterranean unicellular eukaryotic plankton communities (control and +6°C heat shock) to subsequent salinity changes (-5 psu, +5 psu). The impact on Operational Taxonomic Unit (OTU) richness, taxonomic and functional composition and rRNA:rDNA ratios were examined. Our results showed that heat shock leads to lower OTU richness (21% fewer OTUs in the Baltic and 14% fewer in the Mediterranean) and a shift in composition toward pico- and nanophytoplankton and heterotrophic related OTUs. Heat shock also leads to increased rRNA:rDNA ratios for pico- and micrograzers. Less than 18% of shared OTUs were found among the different salinities indicating the crucial role of salinity in shaping communities. The response of rRNA:rDNA ratios varied highly after salinity changes. In both experiments the diversity decrease brought about by heat shock influenced the sensitivity to salinity changes. The heat shock either decreased or increased the sensitivity of the remaining community, depending on whether it removed the more salinity-sensitive or the salinity-tolerant taxa.

Caution Is Needed in Quantifying Terrestrial Biomass Responses to Elevated Temperature: Meta-Analyses of Field-Based Experimental Warming Across China

Certainty over warming-induced biomass accumulation is essential for addressing climate change. However, no previous meta-analysis has investigated this accumulation across the whole of China; also unclear are the differences between herbaceous and woody species and across plant phylogeny, which are critical for corresponding re-vegetation. We extracted data from 90 field-based experiments to reveal general patterns and driving factors of biomass responses all over China. Based on traditional meta-analyses, a warmer temperature significantly increased above- (10.8%) and below-ground (14.2%) biomass accumulation. With increasing warming duration (WarmD) and plant clade age, both above-ground and below-ground biomass showed significant increases. However, for herbaceous versus woody plants, and the whole community versus its dominant species, responses were not always constant; the combined synergies would affect accumulative response patterns. When considering WarmD as a weight, decreases in total above-ground biomass response magnitude were presented, and the increase in below-ground biomass was no longer significant; notably, significant positive responses remained in tree species. However, if phylogenetic information was included in the calculations, all warming-induced plant biomass increases were not significant. Thus, it is still premature to speculate whether warming induces biomass increases in China; further long-term experiments are needed regarding phylogeny-based responses and interspecies relations, especially regarding woody plants and forests.

Glucocorticoid-environment relationships align with responses to environmental change in two co-occurring congeners

As more species undergo range shifts in response to climate change, it is increasingly important to understand the factors that determine an organism's realized niche. Physiological limits imposed by abiotic factors constrain the distributions of many species. Because glucocorticoids are essential to the maintenance of physiological homeostasis, identifying glucocorticoid-environment relationships may generate critical insights into both limits on species distributions and potential responses to environmental change. We explored relationships between variability in baseline glucocorticoids and sensitivity to environmental conditions in two chipmunk species characterized by divergent patterns of spatial, genetic, and morphological change over the past century. Specifically, we investigated whether the alpine chipmunk (Tamias alpinus), which has undergone pronounced changes, displays greater glucocorticoid sensitivity to environmental parameters than the lodgepole chipmunk (T. speciosus), which has exhibited little change over the same interval. From 2013 to 2015, we collected environmental data and fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) samples from these species. Using generalized linear mixed models and a model averaging approach, we examined the impacts of environmental and individual phenotypic parameters on FGMs. We found pronounced interspecific differences, with environmental parameters being better predictors of FGMs in T. alpinus. FGMs in this species were particularly elevated in less climatically suitable habitats and in areas with higher maximum daily temperatures. Individual phenotypic traits were not predictive of FGMs in T. alpinus, although they were highly predictive for T. speciosus. Collectively, these findings support the hypothesis that T. alpinus is more sensitive to environmental change. More generally, our results suggest that both phenotypic attributes and environmental conditions contribute to FGM responses but that the relative contributions of these factors differ among taxa, including among closely related species. Finally, our analyses underscore the value of glucocorticoids as bioindicators of sensitivity to environmental change in species for which the factors affecting stress physiology have been assessed.

Temperature leads to annual changes of plant community composition in alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

In most grassland ecosystems, the effects of mean temperature increase on plant communities have been investigated; however, the effects of climate fluctuations on local plant community metrics are much less well understood. We conducted a nine-year survey in alpine meadow and alpine steppe to investigate the effects of inter-annual temperature and precipitation variation on plant community composition, species richness, and species diversity on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. We unexpectedly found that annual variability of growing season temperature, and not precipitation, is a driver of plant composition and species diversity in both habitats. Generally, increasing temperature had a negative effect on species diversity in meadow (r² = 0.94) and steppe (r² = 0.95). In the meadow habitat, the proportion of grass decreased with increasing temperature and ultimately had positive impacts on the proportion of sedges. In steppe habitat, legumes increased and forbs decreased with the increase of growing season temperature; both legumes and forbs negatively affected proportion of grass and resulted in grass remaining stable under temperature change. Our results provide evidence that responses of functional group composition and species richness to temporal change of temperature are very different from those responses to mean temperature increase on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. In our results, temperature is a main regulator for annual variation of functional group composition and species richness, while soil water content is a dominant regulator for community responses in other experimental warming studies.

Environmental change and predator diversity drive alpha and beta diversity in freshwater macro and microorganisms

Global biodiversity is eroding due to anthropogenic causes, such as climate change, habitat loss, and trophic simplification of biological communities. Most studies address only isolated causes within a single group of organisms; however, biological groups of different trophic levels may respond in particular ways to different environmental impacts. Our study used natural microcosms to investigate the predicted individual and interactive effects of warming, changes in top predator diversity, and habitat size on the alpha and beta diversity of macrofauna, microfauna, and bacteria. Alpha diversity (i.e., richness within each bromeliad) generally explained a larger proportion of the gamma diversity (partitioned in alpha and beta diversity). Overall, dissimilarity between communities occurred due to species turnover and not species loss (nestedness). Nevertheless, the three biological groups responded differently to each environmental stressor. Microfauna were the most sensitive group, with alpha and beta diversity being affected by environmental changes (warming and habitat size) and trophic structure (diversity of top predators). Macrofauna alpha and beta diversity was sensitive to changes in predator diversity and habitat size, but not warming. In contrast, the bacterial community was not influenced by the treatments. The community of each biological group was not mutually concordant with the environmental and trophic changes. Our results demonstrate that distinct anthropogenic impacts differentially affect the components of macro and microorganism diversity through direct and indirect effects (i.e., bottom-up and top-down effects). Therefore, a multitrophic and multispecies approach is necessary to assess the effects of different anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.

People, pollution and pathogens - Global change impacts in mountain freshwater ecosystems

Mountain catchments provide for the livelihood of more than half of humankind, and have become a key destination for tourist and recreation activities globally. Mountain ecosystems are generally considered to be less complex and less species diverse due to the harsh environmental conditions. As such, they are also more sensitive to the various impacts of the Anthropocene. For this reason, mountain regions may serve as sentinels of change and provide ideal ecosystems for studying climate and global change impacts on biodiversity. We here review different facets of anthropogenic impacts on mountain freshwater ecosystems. We put particular focus on micropollutants and their distribution and redistribution due to hydrological extremes, their direct influence on water quality and their indirect influence on ecosystem health via changes of freshwater species and their interactions. We show that those changes may drive pathogen establishment in new environments with harmful consequences for freshwater species, but also for the human population. Based on the reviewed literature, we recommend reconstructing the recent past of anthropogenic impact through sediment analyses, to focus efforts on small, but highly productive waterbodies, and to collect data on the occurrence and variability of microorganisms, biofilms, plankton species and key species, such as amphibians due to their bioindicator value for ecosystem health and water quality. The newly gained knowledge can then be used to develop a comprehensive framework of indicators to robustly inform policy and decision making on current and future risks for ecosystem health and human well-being.

Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions

Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea.

Multi-scale responses to warming in an experimental insect metacommunity

In metacommunities, diversity is the product of species interactions at the local scale and dispersal between habitat patches at the regional scale. Although warming can alter both species interactions and dispersal, the combined effects of warming on these two processes remains uncertain. To determine the independent and interactive effects of warming-induced changes to local species interactions and dispersal, we constructed experimental metacommunities consisting of enclosed milkweed patches seeded with five herbivorous milkweed specialist insect species. We treated metacommunities with two levels of warming (unwarmed and warmed) and three levels of connectivity (isolated, low connectivity, high connectivity). Based on metabolic theory, we predicted that if plant resources were limited, warming would accelerate resource drawdown, causing local insect declines and increasing both insect dispersal and the importance of connectivity to neighboring patches for insect persistence. Conversely, given abundant resources, warming could have positive local effects on insects, and the risk of traversing a corridor to reach a neighboring patch could outweigh the benefits of additional resources. We found support for the latter scenario. Neither resource drawdown nor the weak insect-insect associations in our system were affected by warming, and most insect species did better locally in warmed conditions and had dispersal responses that were unchanged or indirectly affected by warming. Dispersal across the matrix posed a species-specific risk that led to declines in two species in connected metacommunities. Combined, this scaled up to cause an interactive effect of warming and connectivity on diversity, with unwarmed metacommunities with low connectivity incurring the most rapid declines in diversity. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of integrating the complex outcomes of species interactions and spatial structure in understanding community response to climate change.

Warming and top predator loss drive ecosystem multifunctionality

Global change affects ecosystem functioning both directly by modifications in physicochemical processes, and indirectly, via changes in biotic metabolism and interactions. Unclear, however, is how multiple anthropogenic drivers affect different components of community structure and the performance of multiple ecosystem functions (ecosystem multifunctionality). We manipulated small natural freshwater ecosystems to investigate how warming and top predator loss affect seven ecosystem functions representing two major dimensions of ecosystem functioning, productivity and metabolism. We investigated their direct and indirect effects on community diversity and standing stock of multitrophic macro and microorganisms. Warming directly increased multifunctional ecosystem productivity and metabolism. In contrast, top predator loss indirectly affected multifunctional ecosystem productivity via changes in the diversity of detritivorous macroinvertebrates, but did not affect ecosystem metabolism. In addition to demonstrating how multiple anthropogenic drivers have different impacts, via different pathways, on ecosystem multifunctionality components, our work should further spur advances in predicting responses of ecosystems to multiple simultaneous environmental changes.

Herbivores rescue diversity in warming tundra by modulating trait-dependent species losses and gains

Climate warming is altering the diversity of plant communities but it remains unknown which species will be lost or gained under warming, especially considering interactions with other factors such as herbivory and nutrient availability. Here, we experimentally test effects of warming, mammalian herbivory and fertilization on tundra species richness and investigate how plant functional traits affect losses and gains. We show that herbivory reverses the impact of warming on diversity: in the presence of herbivores warming increases species richness through higher species gains and lower losses, while in the absence of herbivores warming causes higher species losses and thus decreases species richness. Herbivores promote gains of short-statured species under warming, while herbivore removal and fertilization increase losses of short-statured and resource-conservative species through light limitation. Our results demonstrate that both rarity and traits forecast species losses and gains, and mammalian herbivores are essential for preventing trait-dependent extinctions and mitigate diversity loss under warming and eutrophication.

Warming can reduce plant diversity but it is unclear which species will be lost or gained under interacting global changes. Kaarlejärvi et al. manipulate temperature, herbivory and nutrients in a tundra system and find that herbivory maintains diversity under warming by reducing species losses and promoting gains.