The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals Among a US Cohort in the Post-Recession Years

Educational experiences and American young adults' childbearing goals: A research note

Objective

This research note describes the relationship between young adults' educational experiences and childbearing goals in the U.S.

Background

In the U.S., education is associated with later childbearing and fewer children, but the relationship between education and fertility desires and intentions is less well-understood. This article contributes to the research literature by illustrating variation in prospective fertility goals by education, focusing on the early life course in order to understand young adults' goals before they have been shaped by parenting and extensive workforce experiences.

Method

This analysis uses data from the National Surveys of Family Growth (1995-2019), a nationally representative survey, to study fertility desires and intentions among childless U.S. men and women ages 19-24. Predicted probabilities demonstrating differences in fertility goals by educational experiences, from three sets of multivariable analyses (logistic regression predicting fertility desires and intentions, separately, and negative binomial regression predicting intended parity), are shown.

Results

Men and women with a bachelor's degree and those enrolled in college do not have lower fertility goals than those without a degree and not enrolled; if anything, more educated individuals are slightly more likely to desire (for men only) and intend children and to have slightly larger intended family size.

Conclusions

Education gaps in fertility in the United States are not attributable to differences in early-life fertility goals.

Economic Cycles and Entry into Parenthood: Is the Association Changing and Does it Affect Macro-Level Trends? Micro-Level Hazard and Simulation Models of Belgian Fertility Trends, 1960-2010

The association between economic cycles-typically measured in terms of GDP growth or swings in unemployment-and macro-level fertility trends has received ample attention in the literature. Compared to studies that consider macro-level fertility, individual-based models can address the association between economic cycles and specific stages of family formation (e.g. entry into parenthood) more precisely while allowing for structural factors that contribute to fertility postponement. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata from the Belgian censuses we combine discrete-time hazard models of entry into parenthood for the period 1960 to 2010 with microsimulation models to assess whether economic cycles in tandem with educational expansion can account for year-to-year variation in the proportion of women entering parenthood and variation in the pace of fertility postponement at the macro-level. Results indicate that educational expansion has been a structural driver of fertility postponement, whereas the procyclical effect of economic cycles accounts for accelerations and decelerations of fertility postponement throughout the period considered. Microsimulation of macro-level fertility trends indicates that individual-based models predict the annual proportion of women entering parenthood and the mean age at first birth with average errors of prediction below 1 per cent and 3 months, respectively, while also showing strong correlations between first differences of observed and simulated time-series. Because the extended observation window encompasses several severe recessions, we test whether the association between economic cycles and entry into parenthood has changed over time and how this affected macro-level trends, discussing several mechanisms that may account for such temporal variation.

Fast Track intervention effects on family formation

The present study examines whether the Fast Track (FT) intervention, a 10-year randomized controlled trial with children at risk for conduct problems, affects family formation in adulthood, as indexed by partnerships, parenthood, and family structure, and whether the intervention effect differs across participants' gender and race/ethnicity. Participants included 891 children (intervention n = 445; control n = 446; 69% male; 51% Black, 47% White) who were recruited in kindergarten and followed to age 32 or 34 (80% participation of still-living participants), when they reported on their romantic partnerships, parenthood, and family structure. Controlling for numerous covariates that are related to family formation, intervention participants were more likely than those in the control group to be married rather than single and to have a larger number of children; the intervention and control groups did not differ on cohabitation status, age at first marriage, whether they had ever been divorced, their likelihood of being a parent, the age at which they first became a parent, the spacing of births, family structure (partnered or not, with or without children), or in whether they were residentially independent of their parents and grandparents. Intervention effects were not moderated by gender, but race/ethnicity moderated the effect of the intervention on the probability of having any children and the number of children. These findings suggest that several elements of family formation may remain unchanged by an intervention that changes many other behavioral and psychological trajectories of participants. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).