An Australian blue carbon method to estimate climate change mitigation benefits of coastal wetland restoration

Mid-infrared spectroscopy determines the provenance of coastal marine soils and their organic and inorganic carbon content

Vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE), encompassing tidal marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses, serve as significant 'blue' carbon (C) sinks. Improving our understanding of VCE soils and their spatial and temporal dynamics is essential for conservation efforts. Conventional methods to characterise the dynamics and provenance of VCE soils and measure their total organic carbon (TOC) and inorganic carbon (TIC) contents are cumbersome and expensive. We recorded the mid-infrared (MIR) spectra and measured the TOC and TIC content of 323 subsamples across consistent depths from 106 soil core samples. Using the spectra of each VCE, we determined their mineral and organic composition by depth. We then used a regression tree algorithm, cubist, to model TOC and TIC contents. We rigorously validated the models to test their performance with a 10-fold cross-validation, bootstrapping, and a separate random test dataset. Our analysis revealed distinct mineralogical and organic MIR signatures in VCE soils that correlated with their position within the seascape. The spectra showed decreased clay minerals and increased quartz and carbonate with distance from freshwater inputs. The mineralogy of tidal marsh and mangrove soils differed with depth, showing larger absorptions due to carbonate and quartz and weakening clay minerals and organics absorptions. The mineralogy of the seagrass soils remained the same with depth. The cubist models to estimate TOC and TIC content were accurate (Lin's concordance correlation, ρc≥ 0.92 and 0.93 respectively) and interpretable, confirming our understanding of C in these systems. These findings shed light on the provenance of the soils and help quantify the flux and accumulation of TOC and TIC, which is crucial for informing VCE conservation. Moreover, our results indicate that MIR spectroscopy could help scale the measurements cost-effectively, for example, in carbon crediting schemes and to improve inventories. The approach will help advance blue C science and contribute to the conservation and protection of VCE.

Additionality in Blue Carbon Ecosystems: Recommendations for a Universally Applicable Accounting Methodology

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs) remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store significant amounts of organic carbon (OC) in their soils. Consequently, the protection and restoration of BCEs may contribute to net greenhouse gas emissions abatement and help address the global challenges of both mitigating and adapting to climate change. An ongoing debate is whether OC sequestered out with the blue carbon (BC) project and transported to its present location (allochthonous) should be counted as 'additional'. There are inconsistencies in the treatment of allochthonous carbon between BCE methodologies, potentially undermining the credibility of global BC accounting initiatives. To explore these inconsistences, we compare the methodologies which we were able to find online, with particular focus on the VERRA, IPCC and BlueCAM methodologies, and review the science underlying any approach to account for allochthonous OC. Our findings indicate that there are currently no robust scientific approaches to define an appropriate apportioning of allochthonous OC for discounting in the calculation of additionality. We therefore advocate for the inclusion of allochthonous OC in BC crediting projects when an observational and experimental approach does not support the calculation (and discounting) of the refractory allochthonous carbon contribution.

Mapping tidal restrictions to support blue carbon restoration

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), encompassing mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are vital ecosystems that deliver valuable services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity support, and coastal protection. However, these ecosystems are threatened by various anthropogenic factors, including tidal restrictions like levees, barriers, and embankments. These structures alter the natural seawater flow, often converting coastal ecosystems into freshwater environments. Identifying tidal restrictions and assessing their suitability for tidal restoration in areas amenable for coastal management is a crucial first step to successfully restore BCEs and the associated ecosystem services they provide, i.e., managed realignment. This study presents a novel approach for detecting tidal restrictions in the state of Victoria, Australia, using high-resolution LiDAR data, geospatial analysis techniques, and a multi-criteria scoring system. Our model successfully identified 90 % of known tidal restrictions from an existing dataset, while also detecting an additional 118 potential tidal restrictions, representing a 35 % increase. The model performance analysis revealed trade-offs between precision, recall, and noise ratio when using different noise reduction thresholds, highlighting the importance of selecting an appropriate threshold based on project objectives. The multi-criteria scoring system, which considered factors such as proximity to BCEs and current land use, enabled the selection of tidal restrictions based on their hydrological suitability for restoration. The results of this study have significant implications for BCE restoration efforts not only in Victoria, but more broadly across Australia and globally, providing a systematic approach to identifying and targeting areas with the greatest potential for successful restoration projects. While the approach is low-cost and user-friendly, it is dependent on the availability of LiDAR data for the study area. This can make it accessible to researchers and practitioners worldwide, allowing for its adaptation and application in diverse regions to support global efforts in restoring BCEs through tidal restoration.

Lessons learned on the feasibility of coastal wetland restoration for blue carbon and co-benefits in Australia

Diverse types of saline coastal wetlands contribute significantly to global biodiversity, carbon stocks, and ecosystem functions. Opportunities to incentivise coastal wetland restoration from carbon markets is growing across the world. However, little is known of the economic feasibility of blue carbon restoration across different regions, or the quantities of ecological and social co-benefits that accompany restoration. We explored the opportunities for tidal restoration of coastal wetlands for blue carbon projects in three regions across Australia. We identified biophysically suitable potential restoration sites for mangroves, saltmarshes and supratidal forests, estimated their carbon abatement over 25 years, and undertook a cost-benefit analysis under the carbon market. Potential co-benefits of restoration sites for biodiversity, fisheries, water quality and coastal protection were measured to identify economically feasible sites that maximise the provision of co-benefits. Cultural benefits were identified as the potential for leadership and collaboration by Traditional Custodians at sites. We found that the extent of restoration opportunities varied among regions, with variation in tidal range, extent of agricultural land-use, and the type of hydrological modifications influencing carbon abatement forecasts. The presence of threatened species in hydrologically modified wetlands reduced the amount of land available for restoration, however the restoration of remaining areas could produce rich ecological and cultural benefits. A high carbon price was needed to make blue carbon restoration profitable on land used for beef production. We found sites where carbon credits can be bundled with co-benefits to possibly attain higher carbon prices. Traditional Custodians were interested in leading blue carbon projects, however the opportunity is dependent on Native Title rights. Through comparison of case studies, we developed a regional approach to identify coastal wetland restoration sites for blue carbon and co-benefits that can incorporate local knowledge and data availability, engage with Traditional Custodians, and adapt to the unique characteristics of regions.

Interplay of soil characteristics and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi diversity in alpine wetland restoration and carbon stabilization

Alpine wetlands are critical ecosystems for global carbon (C) cycling and climate change mitigation. Ecological restoration projects for alpine grazing wetlands are urgently needed, especially due to their critical role as carbon (C) sinks. However, the fate of the C pool in alpine wetlands after restoration from grazing remains unclear. In this study, soil samples from both grazed and restored wetlands in Zoige (near Hongyuan County, Sichuan Province, China) were collected to analyze soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), soil properties, and plant biomass. Moreover, the Tea Bag Index (TBI) was applied to assess the initial decomposition rate (k) and stabilization factor (S), providing a novel perspective on SOC dynamics. The results of this research revealed that the mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) was 1.40 times higher in restored sites compared to grazed sites, although no significant difference in particulate organic carbon (POC) was detected between the two site types. Furthermore, the increased MAOC after restoration exhibited a significant positive correlation with various parameters including S, C and N content, aboveground biomass, WSOC, AMF diversity, and NH4+. This indicates that restoration significantly increases plant primary production, litter turnover, soil characteristics, and AMF diversity, thereby enhancing the C stabilization capacity of alpine wetland soils.

All tidal wetlands are blue carbon ecosystems

Managing coastal wetlands is one of the most promising activities to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases, and it also contributes to meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. One of the options is through blue carbon projects, in which mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrass are managed to increase carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, other tidal wetlands align with the characteristics of blue carbon. These wetlands are called tidal freshwater wetlands in the United States, supratidal wetlands in Australia, transitional forests in Southeast Asia, and estuarine forests in South Africa. They have similar or larger potential for atmospheric carbon sequestration and emission reductions than the currently considered blue carbon ecosystems and have been highly exploited. In the present article, we suggest that all wetlands directly or indirectly influenced by tides should be considered blue carbon. Their protection and restoration through carbon offsets could reduce emissions while providing multiple cobenefits, including biodiversity.

Planning hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands: Key model considerations and solutions

The hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands is an emerging approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change and enhancing ecosystem services such as improved water quality and biodiversity. This paper synthesises current knowledge on selecting appropriate modelling approaches for hydrological restoration projects. The selection of a modelling approach is based on project-specific factors, such as costs, risks, and uncertainties, and aligns with the overall project objectives. We provide guidance on model selection, emphasising the use of simpler and less expensive modelling approaches when appropriate, and identifying situations when models may not be required for project managers to make informed decisions. This paper recognises and supports the widespread use of hydrological restoration in coastal wetlands by bridging the gap between hydrological science and restoration practices. It underscores the significance of project objectives, budget, and available data and offers decision-making frameworks, such as decision trees, to aid in matching modelling methods with specific project outcomes.

Carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation using macroalgae: a state of knowledge review

The conservation, restoration, and improved management of terrestrial forests significantly contributes to mitigate climate change and its impacts, as well as providing numerous co-benefits. The pressing need to reduce emissions and increase carbon removal from the atmosphere is now also leading to the development of natural climate solutions in the ocean. Interest in the carbon sequestration potential of underwater macroalgal forests is growing rapidly among policy, conservation, and corporate sectors. Yet, our understanding of whether carbon sequestration from macroalgal forests can lead to tangible climate change mitigation remains severely limited, hampering their inclusion in international policy or carbon finance frameworks. Here, we examine the results of over 180 publications to synthesise evidence regarding macroalgal forest carbon sequestration potential. We show that research efforts on macroalgae carbon sequestration are heavily skewed towards particulate organic carbon (POC) pathways (77% of data publications), and that carbon fixation is the most studied flux (55%). Fluxes leading directly to carbon sequestration (e.g. carbon export or burial in marine sediments) remain poorly resolved, likely hindering regional or country-level assessments of carbon sequestration potential, which are only available from 17 of the 150 countries where macroalgal forests occur. To solve this issue, we present a framework to categorize coastlines according to their carbon sequestration potential. Finally, we review the multiple avenues through which this sequestration can translate into climate change mitigation capacity, which largely depends on whether management interventions can increase carbon removal above a natural baseline or avoid further carbon emissions. We find that conservation, restoration and afforestation interventions on macroalgal forests can potentially lead to carbon removal in the order of 10's of Tg C globally. Although this is lower than current estimates of natural sequestration value of all macroalgal habitats (61-268 Tg C year-1 ), it suggests that macroalgal forests could add to the total mitigation potential of coastal blue carbon ecosystems, and offer valuable mitigation opportunities in polar and temperate areas where blue carbon mitigation is currently low. Operationalizing that potential will necessitate the development of models that reliably estimate the proportion of production sequestered, improvements in macroalgae carbon fingerprinting techniques, and a rethinking of carbon accounting methodologies. The ocean provides major opportunities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and the largest coastal vegetated habitat on Earth should not be ignored simply because it does not fit into existing frameworks.

Turning the Tide on Mapping Marginal Mangroves with Multi-Dimensional Space–Time Remote Sensing

Mangroves are a globally important ecosystem experiencing significant anthropogenic and climate impacts. Two subtypes of mangrove are particularly vulnerable to climate-induced impacts (1): tidally submerged forests and (2) those that occur in arid and semi-arid regions. These mangroves are either susceptible to sea level rise or occur in conditions close to their physiological limits of temperature and freshwater availability. The spatial extent and impacts on these mangroves are poorly documented, because they have structural and environmental characteristics that affect their ability to be detected with remote sensing models. For example, tidally submerged mangroves occur in areas with large tidal ranges, which limits their visibility at high tide, and arid mangroves have sparse canopy cover and a shorter stature that occur in fringing and narrow stands parallel to the coastline. This study introduced the multi-dimensional space–time randomForest method (MSTRF) that increases the detectability of these mangroves and applies this on the North-west Australian coastline where both mangrove types are prevalent. MSTRF identified an optimal four-year period that produced the most accurate model (Accuracy of 80%, Kappa value 0.61). This model was able to detect an additional 32% (76,048 hectares) of mangroves that were previously undocumented in other datasets. We detected more mangrove cover using this timeseries combination of annual median composite Landsat images derived from scenes across the whole tidal cycle but also over climatic cycles such as EÑSO. The median composite images displayed less spectral differences in mangroves in the intertidal and arid zones compared to individual scenes where water was present during the tidal cycle or where the chlorophyll reflectance was low during hot and dry periods. We found that the MNDWI (Modified Normalised Water Index) and GCVI (Green Chlorophyll Vegetation Index) were the best predictors for deriving the mangrove layer using randomForest.