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Thompson KM, Kalkowska DA, Routh JA, Brenner IR, Rosenberg ES, Zucker JR, Langdon-Embry M, Sugerman DE, Burns CC, Badizadegan K. Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and Responses in New York State. J Infect Dis 2024; 229:1097-1106. [PMID: 37596838 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2023] [Revised: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In July 2022, New York State (NYS) reported a case of paralytic polio in an unvaccinated young adult, and subsequent wastewater surveillance confirmed sustained local transmission of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) in NYS with genetic linkage to the paralyzed patient. METHODS We adapted an established poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus vaccine evolution model to characterize dynamics of poliovirus transmission in NYS, including consideration of the immunization activities performed as part of the declared state of emergency. RESULTS Despite sustained transmission of imported VDPV2 in NYS involving potentially thousands of individuals (depending on seasonality, population structure, and mixing assumptions) in 2022, the expected number of additional paralytic cases in years 2023 and beyond is small (less than 0.5). However, continued transmission and/or reintroduction of poliovirus into NYS and other populations remains a possible risk in communities that do not achieve and maintain high immunization coverage. CONCLUSIONS In countries such as the United States that use only inactivated poliovirus vaccine, even with high average immunization coverage, imported polioviruses may circulate and pose a small but nonzero risk of causing paralysis in nonimmune individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Janell A Routh
- Division of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - I Ravi Brenner
- Office of Public Health, New York State Department of Health, Albany, New York, USA
| | - Eli S Rosenberg
- Office of Public Health, New York State Department of Health, Albany, New York, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, New York, USA
| | - Jane R Zucker
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York, USA
- Immunization Services Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | | | - David E Sugerman
- Division of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Cara C Burns
- Division of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
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Social clustering of unvaccinated children in schools in the Netherlands. Epidemiol Infect 2022; 150:e200. [PMID: 36093608 PMCID: PMC9987017 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268822001455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
For the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, the World Health Organization-recommended coverage for herd protection is 95% for measles and 80% for rubella and mumps. However, a national vaccine coverage does not reflect social clustering of unvaccinated children, e.g. in schools of Orthodox Protestant or Anthroposophic identity in The Netherlands. To fully characterise this clustering, we estimated one-dose MMR vaccination coverages at all schools in the Netherlands. By combining postcode catchment areas of schools and school feeder data, each child in the Netherlands was characterised by residential postcode, primary and secondary school (referred to as school career). Postcode-level vaccination data were used to estimate vaccination coverages per school career. These were translated to coverages per school, stratified by school identity. Most schools had vaccine coverages over 99%, but major exceptions were Orthodox Protestant schools (63% in primary and 58% in secondary schools) and Anthroposophic schools (67% and 78%). School-level vaccine coverage estimates reveal strong clustering of unvaccinated children. The school feeder data reveal strongly connected Orthodox Protestant and Anthroposophic communities, but separated from one another. This suggests that even at a national one-dose MMR coverage of 97.5%, thousands of children per cohort are not protected by herd immunity.
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Thompson KM, Kalkowska DA. Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication. Expert Rev Vaccines 2020; 19:661-686. [PMID: 32741232 PMCID: PMC7497282 DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2020.1791093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 06/22/2020] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame. AREAS COVERED This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations. EXPERT OPINION Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.
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Gianfredi V, Moretti M, Lopalco PL. Countering vaccine hesitancy through immunization information systems, a narrative review. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2019; 15:2508-2526. [PMID: 30932725 PMCID: PMC6930057 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2019.1599675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2018] [Revised: 03/06/2019] [Accepted: 03/15/2019] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Immunization is one of the most important public health interventions to contrast infectious disease; however, many people nowadays refuse vaccination. Vaccine hesitancy (VH) is due to several factors that influence the complex decision-making process. Information technology tools might play an important role in vaccination programs. In particular, immunization information systems (IISs) have the potential to improve performance of vaccination programs and to increase vaccine uptake. This review aimed to present IIS functionalities in order to counter VH. In detail, we analyzed the automatic reminder/recall system, the interoperability of the system, the decision support system, the web page interface and the possibility to record adverse events following immunization. IIS could concretely represent a valid instrument to increase vaccine confidence, especially trust in both health-care workers and decision makers. There are not enough trials aimed to evaluate the efficacy of IIS to counter VH. Further researches might focalize on this aspect.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vincenza Gianfredi
- Post-Graduate School of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Department of Experimental Medicine, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
| | - Massimo Moretti
- Department of Pharmaceutical Science, Unit of Public Health, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
| | - Pier Luigi Lopalco
- Department of Translational Research and New Technologies in Medicine and Surgery, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
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Thompson KM, Odahowski CL, Goodson JL, Reef SE, Perry RT. Synthesis of Evidence to Characterize National Measles and Rubella Exposure and Immunization Histories. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2016; 36:1427-1458. [PMID: 26249328 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2014] [Revised: 05/26/2015] [Accepted: 05/26/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Population immunity depends on the dynamic levels of immunization coverage that countries achieve over time and any transmission of viruses that occur within the population that induce immunity. In the context of developing a dynamic transmission model for measles and rubella to support analyses of future immunization policy options, we assessed the model inputs required to reproduce past behavior and to provide some confidence about model performance at the national level. We reviewed the data available from the World Health Organization (WHO) and existing measles and rubella literature for evidence of historical reported routine and supplemental immunization activities and reported cases and outbreaks. We constructed model input profiles for 180 WHO member states and three other areas to support disease transmission model development and calibration. The profiles demonstrate the significant variability in immunization strategies used historically by regions and member states and the epidemiological implications of these historical choices. The profiles provide a historical perspective on measles and rubella immunization globally at the national level, and they may help immunization program managers identify existing immunity and/or knowledge gaps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc, Orlando, FL, USA
- University of Central Florida, College of Medicine, Orlando, FL, USA
| | | | - James L Goodson
- Global Immunization Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Susan E Reef
- Global Immunization Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Thompson KM, Odahowski CL. The Costs and Valuation of Health Impacts of Measles and Rubella Risk Management Policies. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2016; 36:1357-1382. [PMID: 26249331 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2015] [Accepted: 05/26/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
National and global health policymakers require good information about the costs and benefits of their investments in measles and rubella immunization programs. Building on our review of the existing measles and rubella health economics literature, we develop inputs for use in regional and global models of the expected future benefits and costs of vaccination, treatment, surveillance, and other global coordination activities. Given diversity in the world and limited data, we characterize the costs for countries according to the 2013 World Bank income levels using 2013 U.S. dollars (2013$US). We estimate that routine immunization and supplemental immunization activities will cost governments and donors over 2013$US 2.3 billion per year for the foreseeable future, with high-income countries accounting for 55% of the costs, to vaccinate global birth cohorts of approximately 134 million surviving infants and to protect the global population of over 7 billion people. We find significantly higher costs and health consequences of measles or rubella disease than with vaccine use, with the expected disability-adjusted life year (DALY) loss for case of disease generally at least 100 times the loss per vaccine dose. To support estimates of the economic benefits of investments in measles and/or rubella elimination or control, we characterize the probabilities of various sequelae of measles and rubella infections and vaccine adverse events, the DALY inputs for health outcomes, and the associated treatment costs. Managing measles and rubella to achieve the existing and future regional measles and rubella goals and the objectives of the Global Vaccine Action Plan will require an ongoing commitment of financial resources that will prevent adverse health outcomes and save the associated treatment costs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc, Orlando, FL, USA
- University of Central Florida, College of Medicine, Orlando, FL, USA
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Thompson KM, Cochi SL. Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2016; 36:1288-96. [PMID: 27424287 PMCID: PMC10951992 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2014] [Revised: 05/26/2015] [Accepted: 06/09/2015] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M. Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, FL, USA
- College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
| | - Stephen L. Cochi
- Center for Global Health, Global Immunization Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA, USA
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