A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation

Adverse outcome pathways for ionizing radiation and breast cancer involve direct and indirect DNA damage, oxidative stress, inflammation, genomic instability, and interaction with hormonal regulation of the breast

Knowledge about established breast carcinogens can support improved and modernized toxicological testing methods by identifying key mechanistic events. Ionizing radiation (IR) increases the risk of breast cancer, especially for women and for exposure at younger ages, and evidence overall supports a linear dose-response relationship. We used the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework to outline and evaluate the evidence linking ionizing radiation with breast cancer from molecular initiating events to the adverse outcome through intermediate key events, creating a qualitative AOP. We identified key events based on review articles, searched PubMed for recent literature on key events and IR, and identified additional papers using references. We manually curated publications and evaluated data quality. Ionizing radiation directly and indirectly causes DNA damage and increases production of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (RONS). RONS lead to DNA damage and epigenetic changes leading to mutations and genomic instability (GI). Proliferation amplifies the effects of DNA damage and mutations leading to the AO of breast cancer. Separately, RONS and DNA damage also increase inflammation. Inflammation contributes to direct and indirect effects (effects in cells not directly reached by IR) via positive feedback to RONS and DNA damage, and separately increases proliferation and breast cancer through pro-carcinogenic effects on cells and tissue. For example, gene expression changes alter inflammatory mediators, resulting in improved survival and growth of cancer cells and a more hospitable tissue environment. All of these events overlap at multiple points with events characteristic of "background" induction of breast carcinogenesis, including hormone-responsive proliferation, oxidative activity, and DNA damage. These overlaps make the breast particularly susceptible to ionizing radiation and reinforce that these biological activities are important characteristics of carcinogens. Agents that increase these biological processes should be considered potential breast carcinogens, and predictive methods are needed to identify chemicals that increase these processes. Techniques are available to measure RONS, DNA damage and mutation, cell proliferation, and some inflammatory proteins or processes. Improved assays are needed to measure GI and chronic inflammation, as well as the interaction with hormonally driven development and proliferation. Several methods measure diverse epigenetic changes, but it is not clear which changes are relevant to breast cancer. In addition, most toxicological assays are not conducted in mammary tissue, and so it is a priority to evaluate if results from other tissues are generalizable to breast, or to conduct assays in breast tissue. Developing and applying these assays to identify exposures of concern will facilitate efforts to reduce subsequent breast cancer risk.

Adverse outcome pathways for ionizing radiation and breast cancer involve direct and indirect DNA damage, oxidative stress, inflammation, genomic instability, and interaction with hormonal regulation of the breast

Knowledge about established breast carcinogens can support improved and modernized toxicological testing methods by identifying key mechanistic events. Ionizing radiation (IR) increases the risk of breast cancer, especially for women and for exposure at younger ages, and evidence overall supports a linear dose-response relationship. We used the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework to outline and evaluate the evidence linking ionizing radiation with breast cancer from molecular initiating events to the adverse outcome through intermediate key events, creating a qualitative AOP. We identified key events based on review articles, searched PubMed for recent literature on key events and IR, and identified additional papers using references. We manually curated publications and evaluated data quality. Ionizing radiation directly and indirectly causes DNA damage and increases production of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (RONS). RONS lead to DNA damage and epigenetic changes leading to mutations and genomic instability (GI). Proliferation amplifies the effects of DNA damage and mutations leading to the AO of breast cancer. Separately, RONS and DNA damage also increase inflammation. Inflammation contributes to direct and indirect effects (effects in cells not directly reached by IR) via positive feedback to RONS and DNA damage, and separately increases proliferation and breast cancer through pro-carcinogenic effects on cells and tissue. For example, gene expression changes alter inflammatory mediators, resulting in improved survival and growth of cancer cells and a more hospitable tissue environment. All of these events overlap at multiple points with events characteristic of "background" induction of breast carcinogenesis, including hormone-responsive proliferation, oxidative activity, and DNA damage. These overlaps make the breast particularly susceptible to ionizing radiation and reinforce that these biological activities are important characteristics of carcinogens. Agents that increase these biological processes should be considered potential breast carcinogens, and predictive methods are needed to identify chemicals that increase these processes. Techniques are available to measure RONS, DNA damage and mutation, cell proliferation, and some inflammatory proteins or processes. Improved assays are needed to measure GI and chronic inflammation, as well as the interaction with hormonally driven development and proliferation. Several methods measure diverse epigenetic changes, but it is not clear which changes are relevant to breast cancer. In addition, most toxicological assays are not conducted in mammary tissue, and so it is a priority to evaluate if results from other tissues are generalizable to breast, or to conduct assays in breast tissue. Developing and applying these assays to identify exposures of concern will facilitate efforts to reduce subsequent breast cancer risk.

Black rain in Hiroshima: a critique to the Life Span Study of A-bomb survivors, basis of the linear no-threshold model

Ionizing radiation is regulated by the linear no-threshold model (LNT), which asserts that the lowest doses of ionizing radiation are hazardous in proportion to the dose and dose rate. LNT is based on the data of the Life Span Study (LSS) of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Radiation doses of the survivors were estimated by using initial radiation (5% of blast energy) and residual radiation (10%) was neglected. The major component of residual radiation was fallout, most of which must be brought down to the ground by black rain. The rain was highly radioactive. There are three major black rain maps reporting that black rain covered wide areas of Hiroshima-City. The three lead to an important conclusion that not only A-bomb survivors but also not-in-the-city control subjects (NIC) were irradiated with residual radiation to a greater or lesser degree. This means that exposure doses in LSS were largely underestimated and that use of NIC as the negative control is faulty. Thus, LNT based on LSS is invalid. In addition, LSS ignores radiation hormesis ─ ionizing radiation is not always hazardous, but beneficial depending on doses and dose rates. Indeed, when LSS data of longevity were examined, a clear J-shaped dose-response, a hallmark of radiation hormesis, is apparent. Also, cancer mortality ratios are in the increasing order: NIC (exposed to residual radiation), A-bomb survivors (exposed to both initial and residual radiations), and the Japanese in general (no exposure). Thus, low dose radiation (LDR) is hormetic. Obstinate application of invalid LNT to regulation-unnecessary LDR has been causing tremendous human, social, and economic losses in Fukushima. Also, LNT prevents clinical application of radiation hormesis to age-associated diseases such as Alzheimer's disease and cancers.

A Critical Assessment of the Linear No-Threshold Hypothesis: Its Validity and Applicability for Use in Risk Assessment and Radiation Protection

The Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging convened a task group to examine the evidence for the risk of carcinogenesis from low-dose radiation exposure and to assess evidence in the scientific literature related to the overall validity of the linear no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis and its applicability for use in risk assessment and radiation protection. In the low-dose and dose-rate region, the group concluded that the LNT hypothesis is invalid as it is not supported by the available scientific evidence and, instead, is actually refuted by published epidemiology and radiation biology. The task group concluded that the evidence does not support the use of LNT either for risk assessment or radiation protection in the low-dose and dose-rate region.

The Effect of Local Government Debt on Regional Economic Growth in China: A Nonlinear Relationship Approach

By drawing on the concept of sustainable economic development, this study advances the research on debt sustainability in the economic literature. We explore the correlation between local government debt and regional economic growth in 30 provinces in China. Previous studies have established that the development of economic growth between regions is not independent and we, therefore, investigate the spatial effect of regional economic growth due to the existence of a spatial spillover effect or spatial expansion among regions. Using Moran’s scatter plot, a Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) map, and a semiparametric spatial model (SE-SDM), our results demonstrate the following: (1) the spatial agglomeration effect has a significant influence on regional economic growth; (2) the relationship between local government debt and regional economic growth presents nonlinear characteristics, rather than having an inverted U-shaped relationship; (3) the semiparametric spatial model more accurately characterizes in the nonlinear relationship between local government debt and regional economic growth compared to a basic regression model and the spatial Durbin model; and (4) when the scale of local government debt exceeds a certain level, economic growth will be suppressed by the crowding-out of private investment and the reduction of public expenditure.

The Linear No-Threshold Model of Low-Dose Radiogenic Cancer: A Failed Fiction

The linear no-threshold (LNT) model for low-dose, radiogenic cancer has been a fixture of radiation protection and regulatory requirements for decades, but its validity has long been contested. This article finds, yet again, more questionable data and analyses purporting to support the model, this within the “gold-standard” data set for estimating radiation effects in humans. Herein is addressed a number of significant uncertainties in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation’s Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors, especially in its latest update of 2017, showing that the study’s support of the LNT model is not evidence based. We find that its latest 2 analyses of solid cancer incidence ignore biology and do not support the LNT model. Additionally, we identify data inconsistencies and missing causalities in the LSS data and analyses that place reliance on uncertain, imputed data and apparently flawed modeling, further invalidating the LNT model. These observations lead to a most credible conclusion, one supporting a threshold model for the dose–response relationship between low-dose radiation exposure and radiogenic cancer in humans. Based upon these findings and those cited from others, it becomes apparent that the LNT model cannot be scientifically valid.

Low-dose radiation from A-bombs elongated lifespan and reduced cancer mortality relative to un-irradiated individuals

The US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) presented the linear no-threshold hypothesis (LNT) in 1956, which indicates that the lowest doses of ionizing radiation are hazardous in proportion to the dose. This spurious hypothesis was not based on solid data. NAS put forward the BEIR VII report in 2006 as evidence supporting LNT. The study described in the report used data of the Life Span Study (LSS) of A-bomb survivors. Estimation of exposure doses was based on initial radiation (5%) and neglected residual radiation (10%), leading to underestimation of the doses. Residual radiation mainly consisted of fallout that poured down onto the ground along with black rain. The black-rain-affected areas were wide. Not only A-bomb survivors but also not-in-the-city control subjects (NIC) must have been exposed to residual radiation to a greater or lesser degree. Use of NIC as negative controls constitutes a major failure in analyses of LSS. Another failure of LSS is its neglect of radiation adaptive responses which include low-dose stimulation of DNA damage repair, removal of aberrant cells via stimulated apoptosis, and elimination of cancer cells via stimulated anticancer immunity. LSS never incorporates consideration of this possibility. When LSS data of longevity are examined, a clear J-shaped dose-response, a hallmark of radiation hormesis, is apparent. Both A-bomb survivors and NIC showed longer than average lifespans. Average solid cancer death ratios of both A-bomb survivors and NIC were lower than the average for Japanese people, which is consistent with the occurrence of radiation adaptive responses (the bases for radiation hormesis), essentially invalidating the LNT model. Nevertheless, LNT has served as the basis of radiation regulation policy. If it were not for LNT, tremendous human, social, and economic losses would not have occurred in the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant accident. For many reasons, LNT must be revised or abolished, with changes based not on policy but on science.

Collaborative study of thresholds for mutagens: proposal of a typical protocol for detection of hormetic responses in cytotoxicity tests

BACKGROUND

According to the linear no-threshold model (LNT), even the smallest amount of radiation is hazardous. Although the LNT is not based on solid data, this hypothesis has been applied to mutagens and carcinogens. As a result, it has been postulated that there are no thresholds for these chemicals. To demonstrate negativity by experiments is practically impossible, because negative data may leave behind the possibility that additional data might make the resolution power high enough to change negativity to positivity. Furthermore, additional data collection may be endless and we may be trapped in agnosticism. When hormesis is established, in which biological responses are higher at low-doses and lower at high-doses than the control, thresholds could be established between the low- and high-doses. Before examination of thresholds in chemical mutagenesis, hormetic responses in cytotoxicity were tested using cultured mammalian cells.

METHOD

Human cells (HeLa S3 and TK6) or Chinese hamster cells (CHL/IU) were cultured in 96-well plates and treated with mitomycin C (MMC) or ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS) at various dose levels and optical density was measured after addition of a reagent to detect cellular activity. In hormetic responses, data might fluctuate to and fro; therefore, experimental conditions were examined from various aspects to eliminate confounding factors including cell numbers, detection time, the edge effect of 96-well plates, and measurement time after addition of the reagent for detection.

RESULTS

The dose response relationship was never linear. Cellular activities after treatment with MMC or EMS were generally higher at lower doses levels and lower at higher doses than the control, showing hormesis and allowing the establishment of thresholds. Dose response curves sometimes showed two or three peaks, probably reflecting different cellular responses.

CONCLUSION

Hormetic responses in cytotoxicity tests were observed and thresholds could be established. Based on the results of this investigation, we put forward a tentative protocol to detect chemical hormesis in cytotoxicity tests, i.e., inoculate 2000 cells per well, add various doses of a test chemical 48 h after inoculation, add a detection dye 10 h after treatment, and measure optical density 2 h after addition of the reagent for detection.

Assessing the health effects associated with occupational radiation exposure in Korean radiation workers: protocol for a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The cancer risk of radiation exposure in the moderate-to-high dose range has been well established. However, the risk remains unclear at low-dose ranges with protracted low-dose rate exposure, which is typical of occupational exposure. Several epidemiological studies of Korean radiation workers have been conducted, but the data were analysed retrospectively in most cases. Moreover, groups with relatively high exposure, such as industrial radiographers, have been neglected. Therefore, we have launched a prospective cohort study of all Korean radiation workers to assess the health effects associated with occupational radiation exposure.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Approximately 42 000 Korean radiation workers registered with the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission from 2016 to 2017 are the initial target population of this study. Cohort participants are to be enrolled through a nationwide self-administered questionnaire survey between 24 May 2016 and 30 June 2017. As of 31 March 2017, 22 982 workers are enrolled in the study corresponding to a response rate of 75%. This enrolment will be continued at 5-year intervals to update information on existing study participants and recruit newly hired workers. Survey data will be linked with the national dose registry, the national cancer registry, the national vital statistics registry and national health insurance data via personal identification numbers. Age-specific and sex-specific standardised incidence and mortality ratios will be calculated for overall comparisons of cancer risk. For dose-response assessment, excess relative risk (per Gy) and excess absolute risk (per Gy) will be estimated with adjustments for birth year and potential confounders, such as lifestyle factors and socioeconomic status.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has received ethical approval from the institutional review board of the Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences (IRB No. K-1603-002-034). All participants provided written informed consent prior to enrolment. The findings of the study will be disseminated through scientific peer-reviewed journals and be provided to the public, including radiation workers, via the study website (http://www.rhs.kr/) and onsite radiation safety education.

Dose-responses for mortality from cerebrovascular and heart diseases in atomic bomb survivors: 1950-2003

The scientific community faces important discussions on the validity of the linear no-threshold (LNT) model for radiation-associated cardiovascular diseases at low and moderate doses. In the present study, mortalities from cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD) and heart diseases from the latest data on atomic bomb survivors were analyzed. The analysis was performed with several radio-biologically motivated linear and nonlinear dose-response models. For each detrimental health outcome one set of models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. This set was used for multi-model inference (MMI), a statistical method of superposing different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose-response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. MMI provides a more accurate determination of the dose response and a more comprehensive characterization of uncertainties. It was found that for CeVD, the dose-response curve from MMI is located below the linear no-threshold model at low and medium doses (0-1.4 Gy). At higher doses MMI predicts a higher risk compared to the LNT model. A sublinear dose-response was also found for heart diseases (0-3 Gy). The analyses provide no conclusive answer to the question whether there is a radiation risk below 0.75 Gy for CeVD and 2.6 Gy for heart diseases. MMI suggests that the dose-response curves for CeVD and heart diseases in the Lifespan Study are sublinear at low and moderate doses. This has relevance for radiotherapy treatment planning and for international radiation protection practices in general.

A semiparametric approach to evaluate the harm of low-dose exposures

While moderate to high levels of radiation exposure is known to cause adverse health effects, there is still controversy about the lowest dose that could be harmful. Given that epidemiological studies of practical sizes are unlikely to provide sufficient statistical power to detect a small risk in the low-dose range of concern, greater emphasis should be given to evaluating low-dose risk uncertainty. Using simulations under various dose-response relationships with a threshold, we show that a conventional approach based on simple parametric models (e.g. the linear model with or without a threshold) can be inefficient, biased and/or inaccurate in uncertainty evaluations at low doses. Alternatively, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model of a connected piecewise-linear function allowing for autocorrelations between adjacent line sections. With no specific assumption, this can describe various plausible dose-response curves while appropriately handling the risk uncertainty. In particular, it can relatively accurately evaluate the dose range in which a threshold might exist, while retaining statistical power for a small risk increase after the threshold. As an illustration, we analyse cancer incidence data of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, a primary epidemiological source of quantitative risk estimates for health effects from radiation exposure.

Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies

It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to longer time since exposure. Here it is demonstrated, through the use of all follow-up data and risk models stratified on period of follow-up (as opposed to sub-setting the data by follow-up period), that the appearance of risk attenuation over time may be the result of less-precise risk estimation-in particular, imprecise estimation of effect-modification parameters-in the earlier periods. Longer follow-up, in addition to allowing more-precise estimation of risk due to larger numbers of radiation-related cases, provides more-precise adjustment for background mortality or incidence and more-accurate assessment of risk modification by age at exposure and attained age. It is concluded that the latest follow-up data are most appropriate for inferring low-dose risk. Furthermore, if researchers are interested in effects of time since exposure, the most-recent follow-up data should be considered rather than the results of earlier reports.

Rediscovery of an old article reporting that the area around the epicenter in Hiroshima was heavily contaminated with residual radiation, indicating that exposure doses of A-bomb survivors were largely underestimated

The A-bomb blast released a huge amount of energy: thermal radiation (35%), blast energy (50%), and nuclear radiation (15%). Of the 15%, 5% was initial radiation released within 30 s and 10% was residual radiation, the majority of which was fallout. Exposure doses of hibakusha (A-bomb survivors) were estimated solely on the basis of the initial radiation. The effects of the residual radiation on hibakusha have been considered controversial; some groups assert that the residual radiation was negligible, but others refute that assertion. I recently discovered a six-decade-old article written in Japanese by a medical doctor, Gensaku Obo, from Hiroshima City. This article clearly indicates that the area around the epicenter in Hiroshima was heavily contaminated with residual radiation. It reports that non-hibakusha who entered Hiroshima soon after the blast suffered from severe acute radiation sickness, including burns, external injuries, fever, diarrhea, skin bleeding, sore throat and loss of hair-as if they were real hibakusha. This means that (i) some of those who entered Hiroshima in the early days after the blast could be regarded as indirect hibakusha; (ii) 'in-the-city-control' people in the Life Span Study (LSS) must have been irradiated more or less from residual radiation and could not function properly as the negative control; (iii) exposure doses of hibakusha were largely underestimated; and (iv) cancer risk in the LSS was largely overestimated. Obo's article is very important to understand the health effects of A-bombs so that the essence of it is translated from Japanese to English with the permission of the publisher.

The 10th anniversary of the publication of genes and environment: memoir of establishing the Japanese environmental mutagen society and a proposal for a new collaborative study on mutagenic hormesis

The Japanese Environmental Mutagen Society (JEMS) was established in 1972 by 147 members, 11 of whom are still on the active list as of May 1, 2016. As one of them, I introduce some historic topics here. These include 1) establishment of JEMS, 2) the issue of 2-(2-furyl)-3-(3-nitro-2-furyl)acrylamide (AF-2), 3) the Mammalian Mutagenicity Study Group (MMS) and its achievements, and 4) the Collaborative Study Group of the Micronucleus Test (CSGMT) and its achievements. In addition to these historic matters, some of which are still ongoing, a new collaborative study is proposed on adaptive response or hormesis by mutagens. There is a close relationship between mutagens and carcinogens, the dose-response relationship of which has been thought to follow the linear no-threshold model (LNT). LNT was fabricated on the basis of Drosophila sperm experiments using high dose radiation delivered in a short period. The fallacious 60 years-old LNT is applied to cancer induction by radiation without solid data and then to cancer induction by carcinogens also without solid data. Therefore, even the smallest amount of carcinogens is postulated to be carcinogenic without thresholds now. Radiation hormesis is observed in a large variety of living organisms; radiation is beneficial at low doses, but hazardous at high doses. There is a threshold at the boundary between benefit and hazard. Hormesis denies LNT. Not a few papers report existence of chemical hormesis. If mutagens and carcinogens show hormesis, the linear dose-response relationship in mutagenesis and carcinogenesis is denied and thresholds can be introduced.

Low dose radiation risks for women surviving the a-bombs in Japan: generalized additive model

BACKGROUND

Analyses of cancer mortality and incidence in Japanese A-bomb survivors have been used to estimate radiation risks, which are generally higher for women. Relative Risk (RR) is usually modelled as a linear function of dose. Extrapolation from data including high doses predicts small risks at low doses. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are flexible methods for modelling non-linear behaviour.

METHODS

GAMs are applied to cancer incidence in female low dose subcohorts, using anonymous public data for the 1958 - 1998 Life Span Study, to test for linearity, explore interactions, adjust for the skewed dose distribution, examine significance below 100 mGy, and estimate risks at 10 mGy.

RESULTS

For all solid cancer incidence, RR estimated from 0 - 100 mGy and 0 - 20 mGy subcohorts is significantly raised. The response tapers above 150 mGy. At low doses, RR increases with age-at-exposure and decreases with time-since-exposure, the preferred covariate. Using the empirical cumulative distribution of dose improves model fit, and capacity to detect non-linear responses. RR is elevated over wide ranges of covariate values. Results are stable under simulation, or when removing exceptional data cells, or adjusting neutron RBE. Estimates of Excess RR at 10 mGy using the cumulative dose distribution are 10 - 45 times higher than extrapolations from a linear model fitted to the full cohort. Below 100 mGy, quasipoisson models find significant effects for all solid, squamous, uterus, corpus, and thyroid cancers, and for respiratory cancers when age-at-exposure > 35 yrs. Results for the thyroid are compatible with studies of children treated for tinea capitis, and Chernobyl survivors. Results for the uterus are compatible with studies of UK nuclear workers and the Techa River cohort.

CONCLUSION

Non-linear models find large, significant cancer risks for Japanese women exposed to low dose radiation from the atomic bombings. The risks should be reflected in protection standards.