A Spatio-Temporal Exposure-Hazard Model for Assessing Biological Risk and Impact

Pressure from insect-resistant maize on protected butterflies and moths

Intensification in agriculture affects many insect species, including butterflies. Insect-resistant crops, such as Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) maize, which produces a toxin active against Lepidoptera, are an alternative to insecticide sprays. Genetically modified crops are regulated in most countries and require an environmental risk assessment. In the European Union, such assessments include the use of simulation models to predict the effects on nontarget Lepidoptera (NTL). To support the assessment of protected NTL, we extended an individual-based, stochastic, spatially explicit mathematical model (LepiX) to include a wider range of exposure scenarios, a species-sensitivity distribution, and an option for repeated exposure of individuals. We applied the model to transgenic maize DAS-1507, which expresses a high concentration of Bt toxin in pollen that may be consumed by NTL larvae on their host plants nearby. Even in the most conservative scenario without repeated exposure, mortality estimates for highly sensitive species ranged from 41% to 6% at distances of 10-1000 m from the nearest maize field. Repeated exposure can cause additional mortality and thus is relevant for the overall risk assessment. Uncertainties in both exposure and ecotoxicity estimates strongly influenced the predicted mortalities. Care should be taken to include these uncertainties in the model scenarios used for decision-making. In accordance with other modeling results, our simulations demonstrated that mean mortality may not be safe for protected species. With its high pollen expression, DAS-1507 maize may pose risks to sensitive and protected butterfly and moth species that may be difficult to manage. High expression of Bt toxin in pollen is unnecessary for controlling target pests. Consequently, we suggest that Bt maize with high pollen expression not be cultivated in regions where protected butterflies are to be conserved.

The strategy for estrogen receptor mediated-risk assessment in environmental water: A combination of species sensitivity distributions and in silico approaches

Risk assessment for molecular toxicity endpoints of environmental matrices may be a pressing issue. Here, we combined chemical analysis with species sensitivity distributions (SSD) and in silico docking for multi-species estrogen receptor mediated-risk assessment in water from Dongjiang River, China. The water contains high levels of phenolic endocrine-disrupting chemicals (PEDCs) and phthalic acid esters (PAEs). The concentration of ∑₄PEDCs and ∑₆PAEs ranged from 2202 to 3404 ng/L and 834-4368 ng/L, with an average of 3241 and 2215 ng/L, respectively. The SSD approach showed that 4-NP, BPA, E2 of PEDCs, and DBP, DOP, and DEHP could severely threaten the aquatic ecosystems, while most other target compounds posed low-to-medium risks. Moreover, binding affinities from molecular docking among PEDCs, PAEs, and estrogen receptors (ERα, Erβ, and GPER) were applied as toxic equivalency factors. Estrogen receptor-mediated risk suggested that PEDCs were the main contributors, containing 53.37-69.79% of total risk. They potentially pose more severe estrogen-receptor toxicity to zebrafish, turtles, and frogs. ERβ was the major contributor, followed by ERα and GPER. This study is the first attempt to assess the estrogen receptor-mediated risk of river water in multiple aquatic organisms. The in silico simulation approach could complement toxic effect evaluations in molecular endpoints.

EFSA is working to advance the environmental risk assessment of genetically modified crops to better protect butterflies and moths

This publication is linked to the following EFSA Supporting Publications article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/sp.efsa.2021.EN-6443/full.

When the average hides the risk of Bt-corn pollen on non-target Lepidoptera: Application to Aglais io in Catalonia

Field cultivation of Genetically Modified (GM) Bt-plants has a potential environmental risk toward non-target Lepidoptera (NTLs) larvae through the consumption of Bt-maize pollen. The Bt-maize Cry protein targeting Lepidoptera species detrimental to the crop is also expressed in pollen which is dispersed by wind and can thus reach habitats of NTLs. To better assess the current ecological risk of Bt-maize at landscape scales, we developed a spatially-explicit exposure-hazard model considering (i) the dynamics of pollen dispersal obtained by convolving GM plants emission with a dispersal kernel and (ii) a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) model accounting for the impact of toxin ingestion on individual lethal effects. We simulated the model using real landscape observations in Catalonia (Spain): GM-maize locations, flowering dates, rainfall time series and larvae emergence date of the European peacock butterfly Aglais io. While in average, the additional mortality appears to be negligible, we show significant additional mortality at sub-population level, with for instance a mortality higher than 40% within the 10m for the 10% most Bt-sensitive individuals. Also, using Pareto optimality we capture the best trade-off between isolation distance and additional mortality: up to 50 m are required to significantly buffer Bt-pollen impact on NTLs survival at the individual level. Our study clears up the narrow line between diverging conclusions: those claiming no risk by only looking at the average regional effect of Bt on NTLs survival and those pointing out a significant threaten when considering the variability of individuals mortality.

Toxicokinetic models and related tools in environmental risk assessment of chemicals

Environmental risk assessment of chemicals for the protection of ecosystems integrity is a key regulatory and scientific research field which is undergoing constant development in modelling approaches and harmonisation with human risk assessment. This review focuses on state-of-the-art toxicokinetic tools and models that have been applied to terrestrial and aquatic species relevant to environmental risk assessment of chemicals. Both empirical and mechanistic toxicokinetic models are discussed using the results of extensive literature searches together with tools and software for their calibration and an overview of applications in environmental risk assessment. These include simple tools such as one-compartment models, multi-compartment models to physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models, mostly available for aquatic species such as fish species and a number of chemical classes including plant protection products, metals, persistent organic pollutants, nanoparticles. Data gaps and further research needs are highlighted.