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Domènech-Montoliu S, Pac-Sa MR, Sala-Trull D, Del Rio-González A, Sanchéz-Urbano M, Satorres-Martinez P, Blasco-Gari R, Casanova-Suarez J, Gil-Fortuño M, López-Diago L, Notari-Rodríguez C, Pérez-Olaso Ó, Romeu-Garcia MA, Ruiz-Puig R, Aleixandre-Gorriz I, Domènech-León C, Arnedo-Pena A. Underreporting of Cases in the COVID-19 Outbreak of Borriana (Spain) during Mass Gathering Events in March 2020: A Cross-Sectional Study. EPIDEMIOLOGIA 2024; 5:499-510. [PMID: 39189253 PMCID: PMC11348374 DOI: 10.3390/epidemiologia5030034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2024] [Revised: 08/02/2024] [Accepted: 08/06/2024] [Indexed: 08/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Determining the number of cases of an epidemic is the first function of epidemiological surveillance. An important underreporting of cases was observed in many locations during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. To estimate this underreporting in the COVID-19 outbreak of Borriana (Valencia Community, Spain) in March 2020, a cross-sectional study was performed in June 2020 querying the public health register. Logistic regression models were used. Of a total of 468 symptomatic COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the outbreak through anti-SARS-CoV-2 serology, 36 cases were reported (7.7%), resulting in an underreporting proportion of 92.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.5-94.6%), with 13 unreported cases for every reported case. Only positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction cases were predominantly reported due to a limited testing capacity and following a national protocol. Significant factors associated with underreporting included no medical assistance for COVID-19 disease, with an adjusted odds ratio [aOR] of 10.83 (95% CI 2.49-47.11); no chronic illness, aOR = 2.81 (95% CI 1.28-6.17); middle and lower social classes, aOR = 3.12 (95% CI 1.42-6.85); younger age, aOR = 0.97 (95% CI 0.94-0.99); and a shorter duration of illness, aOR = 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-0.99). To improve the surveillance of future epidemics, new approaches are recommended.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Maria Rosario Pac-Sa
- Public Health Center, 12003 Castelló de la Plana, Spain; (M.R.P.-S.); (M.A.R.-G.)
| | - Diego Sala-Trull
- Emergency Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (D.S.-T.); (M.S.-U.); (P.S.-M.); (R.B.-G.); (C.N.-R.); (R.R.-P.)
| | | | - Manuel Sanchéz-Urbano
- Emergency Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (D.S.-T.); (M.S.-U.); (P.S.-M.); (R.B.-G.); (C.N.-R.); (R.R.-P.)
| | - Paloma Satorres-Martinez
- Emergency Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (D.S.-T.); (M.S.-U.); (P.S.-M.); (R.B.-G.); (C.N.-R.); (R.R.-P.)
| | - Roser Blasco-Gari
- Emergency Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (D.S.-T.); (M.S.-U.); (P.S.-M.); (R.B.-G.); (C.N.-R.); (R.R.-P.)
| | | | - Maria Gil-Fortuño
- Microbiology Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (M.G.-F.); (Ó.P.-O.)
| | - Laura López-Diago
- Clinical Analysis Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (L.L.-D.); (I.A.-G.)
| | - Cristina Notari-Rodríguez
- Emergency Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (D.S.-T.); (M.S.-U.); (P.S.-M.); (R.B.-G.); (C.N.-R.); (R.R.-P.)
| | - Óscar Pérez-Olaso
- Microbiology Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (M.G.-F.); (Ó.P.-O.)
| | | | - Raquel Ruiz-Puig
- Emergency Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (D.S.-T.); (M.S.-U.); (P.S.-M.); (R.B.-G.); (C.N.-R.); (R.R.-P.)
| | - Isabel Aleixandre-Gorriz
- Clinical Analysis Service University Hospital de la Plana, 12540 Vila-Real, Spain; (L.L.-D.); (I.A.-G.)
| | - Carmen Domènech-León
- Department of Medicine, University CEU Cardenal Herrera, 12006 Castelló de la Plana, Spain;
| | - Alberto Arnedo-Pena
- Public Health Center, 12003 Castelló de la Plana, Spain; (M.R.P.-S.); (M.A.R.-G.)
- Department of Health Science, Public University Navarra, 31006 Pamplona, Spain
- Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), 28029 Madrid, Spain
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Rauch W, Schenk H, Rauch N, Harders M, Oberacher H, Insam H, Markt R, Kreuzinger N. Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data. Sci Rep 2024; 14:6732. [PMID: 38509181 PMCID: PMC10954653 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-57238-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2024] [Indexed: 03/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Eminent in pandemic management is accurate information on infection dynamics to plan for timely installation of control measures and vaccination campaigns. Despite huge efforts in diagnostic testing of individuals, the underestimation of the actual number of SARS-CoV-2 infections remains significant due to the large number of undocumented cases. In this paper we demonstrate and compare three methods to estimate the dynamics of true infections based on secondary data i.e., (a) test positivity, (b) infection fatality and (c) wastewater monitoring. The concept is tested with Austrian data on a national basis for the period of April 2020 to December 2022. Further, we use the results of prevalence studies from the same period to generate (upper and lower bounds of) credible intervals for true infections for four data points. Model parameters are subsequently estimated by applying Approximate Bayesian Computation-rejection sampling and Genetic Algorithms. The method is then validated for the case study Vienna. We find that all three methods yield fairly similar results for estimating the true number of infections, which supports the idea that all three datasets contain similar baseline information. None of them is considered superior, as their advantages and shortcomings depend on the specific case study at hand.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wolfgang Rauch
- Unit of Environmental Engineering, Department of Infrastructure, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstrasse 13, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria.
| | - Hannes Schenk
- Unit of Environmental Engineering, Department of Infrastructure, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstrasse 13, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Nikolaus Rauch
- Interactive Graphics and Simulation Group, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Matthias Harders
- Interactive Graphics and Simulation Group, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Herbert Oberacher
- Institute of Legal Medicine and Core Facility Metabolomics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Heribert Insam
- Department of Microbiology, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstrasse 25, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Rudolf Markt
- Department of Health Sciences and Social Work, Carinthia University of Applied Sciences, Villach, Austria
| | - Norbert Kreuzinger
- Institute of Water Quality and Resource Management, Technical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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Gearhart R, Michieka N, Anders A. The effectiveness of COVID deaths to COVID policies: A robust conditional approach. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY 2023:S0313-5926(23)00147-9. [PMID: 37363405 PMCID: PMC10276656 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2023.06.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Revised: 06/02/2023] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
This paper examines the effectiveness of four major COVID-19 social distancing policies, (i) shelter-in-place orders (SIPO), (ii) non-essential business closures, (iii) mandatory quarantine for travelers, and (iv) bans on large gatherings, on both COVID cases and COVID deaths. Results indicate that states are highly ineffective in producing the fraction of the population that does not have COVID-19 or the fraction of the population that does not die from COVID-19. We find that having any form of social distancing policies increases the fraction of the population not considered a positive COVID-19 case by 23.5 percentage points. Results also show that having any of the four major social distancing policies reduces the fraction of the population who has died of COVID-19 by 1.3 percentage points between March 1, 2020 and September 1, 2020; during the first 100 days, effectiveness would improve by 2.1 percentage points. Evidence suggests that there is no effective uniform national COVID-19 social distancing policy. Furthermore, conditional efficiency regressions after 100 days suggest that behavioral noncompliance and premature expiration of social distancing policies both negatively impact effectiveness. Partial regression plots suggest that bans on large gatherings and the closure of non-essential businesses were the two most impactful COVID-19 social distancing policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Gearhart
- School of Business and Public Administration, Department of Economics, California State University, 20 BDC, 9001 Stockdale Highway, Bakersfield, CA 93311, USA
| | - Nyakundi Michieka
- School of Business and Public Administration, Department of Economics, California State University, 20 BDC, 9001 Stockdale Highway, Bakersfield, CA 93311, USA
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Álvarez IC, Orea L, Wall A. Estimating the propagation of both reported and undocumented COVID-19 cases in Spain: a panel data frontier approximation of epidemiological models. JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS 2023; 59:259-279. [PMID: 37143450 PMCID: PMC9975832 DOI: 10.1007/s11123-023-00664-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
We use a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach to model the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic across geographical areas. The proposed models permit reported and undocumented cases to be estimated, which is important as case counts are overwhelmingly believed to be undercounted. The models can be estimated using only epidemic-type data but are flexible enough to permit these reporting rates to vary across geographical cross-section units of observation. We provide an empirical application of our models to Spanish data corresponding to the initial months of the original outbreak of the virus in early 2020. We find remarkable rates of under-reporting that might explain why the Spanish Government took its time to implement strict mitigation strategies. We also provide insights into the effectiveness of the national and regional lockdown measures and the influence of socio-economic factors in the propagation of the virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Inmaculada C. Álvarez
- Department of Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain, and Oviedo Efficiency Group, Oviedo, Spain
| | - Luis Orea
- Department of Economics, University of Oviedo and Oviedo Efficiency Group, Oviedo, Spain
| | - Alan Wall
- Department of Economics, University of Oviedo and Oviedo Efficiency Group, Oviedo, Spain
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Boto-García D. Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases. ECONOMIC MODELLING 2023; 118:106083. [PMID: 36281432 PMCID: PMC9581521 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2022] [Revised: 09/06/2022] [Accepted: 10/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Following a pandemic disease outbreak, people travel to areas with low infection risk, but at the same time the epidemiological situation worsens as mobility flows to those areas increase. These feedback effects from epidemiological conditions to inflows and from inflows to subsequent infections are underexplored to date. This study investigates the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases in a context of unrestricted mobility without COVID-19 vaccines. To this end, we merge data on COVID-19 cases in Spain during the summer of 2020 at the province level with mobility records based on mobile position tracking. Using a control function approach, we find that a 1% increase in arrivals translates into a 3.5% increase in cases in the following week and 5.6% ten days later. A simulation exercise shows the cases would have dropped by around 64% if the Second State of Alarm had been implemented earlier.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Boto-García
- Oviedo Efficiency Group, Department of Economics, University of Oviedo, Avenida Del Cristo S/n, 33006, Oviedo, Asturias, Spain
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Gearhart R, Sonchak-Ardan L, Michieka N. The efficiency of COVID cases to COVID policies: a robust conditional approach. EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS 2022; 63:2903-2948. [PMID: 35431413 PMCID: PMC8994571 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-022-02234-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2021] [Accepted: 03/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
This paper examines the efficiency of four major COVID-19 social distancing policies: (i) shelter-in-place orders (SIPO), (ii) non-essential business closures, (iii) mandatory quarantine for travelers, and (iv) bans on large gatherings. Results suggest that the average US state is highly inefficient in producing the fraction of the population that does not have COVID-19 without social distancing policies put in place. We find that having any of the four major social distancing policies increases conditional efficiency by 9.7 (9.5) percentage points in the first 100 days (full sample). This corresponds to 57 (172) fewer total COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population in the first 100 days (full sample). We also find that population density accounts for a majority of unconditional state inefficiency. Evidence suggests considerable heterogeneity in conditional efficiency improvement, indicating that no uniform national social distancing policy would have been more effective; more effective strategies would have been to target more densely populated areas. Conditional efficiency regressions suggest that bans on large gatherings were the most effective policies, with SIPOs and non-essential business closures having smaller impacts. States that implemented social distancing policies except mandatory quarantine for traveler policies were highly effective for the first 100 days, but had less effectiveness over the full sample. There is also preliminary evidence that premature revocations of social distancing policies reduced conditional efficiency, leading to COVID-19 case spikes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Gearhart
- Associate Professor of Economics, School of Business and Public Administration, Department of Economics, California State University, 9001 Stockdale Highway, 20 BDC, Bakersfield, CA 93311 USA
| | - Lyudmyla Sonchak-Ardan
- Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Susquehanna University, 514 University Ave., Selinsgrove, PA 17870 USA
| | - Nyakundi Michieka
- Associate Professor of Economics, School of Business and Public Administration, Department of Economics, California State University, 9001 Stockdale Highway, 20 BDC, Bakersfield, CA 93311 USA
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