1
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Wang M, Wang G, Huang G, Kouba A, Swaisgood RR, Zhou W, Hu Y, Nie Y, Wei F. Habitat connectivity drives panda recovery. Curr Biol 2024:S0960-9822(24)00940-0. [PMID: 39127049 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2024.07.037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2024] [Revised: 05/10/2024] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 08/12/2024]
Abstract
Globally, the majority of habitat loss is irreversible, and most species will never recover their former ranges. We have learned a great deal about what leads to population decline and extinction, but less about recovery. The recently downlisted giant panda provides a unique opportunity to understand the mechanisms of species recovery. In our study, we estimate giant panda suitable habitats, population density, and gene flow across landscapes to fully investigate the direct and indirect ecological mechanisms underlying bold conservation strategies. We found that the Giant Panda National Survey has modestly but systematically underestimated population size. China's effort to mitigate anthropogenic disturbances was associated with increased panda population density through improving habitat quality and reducing habitat fragmentation. Enhanced landscape connectivity reduced inbreeding via gene flow but indirectly increased inbreeding temporarily due to high local panda density. Although the panda's recovery has been geographically uneven, we provide evidence for improving connectivity and gene flow resulting from conservation efforts. If these processes can be sustained and improved, the panda's path to recovery will be less encumbered by loss of genetic diversity, fostering hope that the present rate of recovery will not be stalled. Findings from this study will not only help guide future giant panda conservation management but also provide a model for how a more mechanistic examination of the genetic processes underlying species recovery can foster the development of more effective strategies for endangered species recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meng Wang
- Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Conservation Biology, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China; Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Guiming Wang
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39762, USA
| | - Guangping Huang
- Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Conservation Biology, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
| | - Andy Kouba
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39762, USA
| | - Ronald R Swaisgood
- Conservation Science and Wildlife Health, San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, Escondido, CA 92027, USA
| | - Wenliang Zhou
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Center for Evolution and Conservation Biology, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China
| | - Yibo Hu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Yonggang Nie
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Fuwen Wei
- Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Conservation Biology, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China; Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Center for Evolution and Conservation Biology, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China.
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2
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Wilkes LN, Barner AK, Keyes AA, Morton D, Byrnes JEK, Dee LE. Quantifying co-extinctions and ecosystem service vulnerability in coastal ecosystems experiencing climate warming. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17422. [PMID: 39034898 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2024] [Revised: 06/12/2024] [Accepted: 07/01/2024] [Indexed: 07/23/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is negatively impacting ecosystems and their contributions to human well-being, known as ecosystem services. Previous research has mainly focused on the direct effects of climate change on species and ecosystem services, leaving a gap in understanding the indirect impacts resulting from changes in species interactions within complex ecosystems. This knowledge gap is significant because the loss of a species in a food web can lead to additional species losses or "co-extinctions," particularly when the species most impacted by climate change are also the species that play critical roles in food web persistence or provide ecosystem services. Here, we present a framework to investigate the relationships among species vulnerability to climate change, their roles within the food web, their contributions to ecosystem services, and the overall persistence of these systems and services in the face of climate-induced species losses. To do this, we assess the robustness of food webs and their associated ecosystem services to climate-driven species extinctions in eight empirical rocky intertidal food webs. Across food webs, we find that highly connected species are not the most vulnerable to climate change. However, we find species that directly provide ecosystem services are more vulnerable to climate change and more connected than species that do not directly provide services, which results in ecosystem service provision collapsing before food webs. Overall, we find that food webs are more robust to climate change than the ecosystem services they provide and show that combining species roles in food webs and services with their vulnerability to climate change offer predictions about the impacts of co-extinctions for future food web and ecosystem service persistence. However, these conclusions are limited by data availability and quality, underscoring the need for more comprehensive data collection on linking species roles in interaction networks and their vulnerabilities to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lexi N Wilkes
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Aislyn A Keyes
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, Boothbay, Maine, USA
| | - Dana Morton
- Department of Biology, Colby College, Waterville, Maine, USA
| | - Jarrett E K Byrnes
- Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Laura E Dee
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
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3
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Febvre C, Goldblatt C, El-Sabaawi R. Thermal performance of ecosystems: Modeling how physiological responses to temperature scale up in communities. J Theor Biol 2024; 585:111792. [PMID: 38513968 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2024.111792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2023] [Revised: 02/20/2024] [Accepted: 03/10/2024] [Indexed: 03/23/2024]
Abstract
Understanding how ecosystems respond to their environmental temperature is a major challenge. Thermodynamic constraints on species' metabolic rates are expected to affect ecosystem characteristics, but species interactions and interspecific variation in physiological thermal response curves (TRC) may obscure ecosystem-level responses to temperature. As a result, macroecological patterns related to temperature are still poorly understood. We investigate how physiological TRC scale up to ecosystem-level thermal responses by modifying the Tangled Nature (TaNa) model, a stochastic network model of ecology and evolution. We include new parameterizations that make reproduction, death, and mutation temperature-dependent. We find that ecosystem survival probability depends on how the minimum fitness required for species survival varies with temperature. The thermal response of ecosystem survival probability is the only ecosystem property that is sensitive to interspecific variation in TRC. Species richness scales up directly from the TRC of mutation rate, and average species population sizes are inversely related to mutation rate, with Species Abundance Distributions (SADs) exhibiting more rare species in warmer temperatures. Interactions between species are also inversely related to mutation, with positive interactions occurring more frequently in colder temperatures. The abundance of surviving ecosystems is not sensitive to temperature. This work helps clarify the specific relationships between physiological responses to temperature and ecosystem-level repercussions when species are interacting and adapting to their thermal environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Camille Febvre
- School of Earth & Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, 3600 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC, Canada; Department of Biology, University of Victoria, 3600 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC, Canada.
| | - Colin Goldblatt
- School of Earth & Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, 3600 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Rana El-Sabaawi
- Department of Biology, University of Victoria, 3600 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC, Canada
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4
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Naeem S, Jackson J, Neelin D. Let's celebrate Earth Day as the Age of Open Science. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadp6048. [PMID: 38630823 PMCID: PMC11023497 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adp6048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Shahid Naeem
- Shahid Naeem, Deputy Editor, Science Advances, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology (E3B), Columbia University, 1200 Amsterdam Ave, 10th Floor Schermerhorn Extension, MC5557, New York, NY, 10027, USA.
- Jeremy Jackson, Deputy Editor, Science Advances, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA; Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA, USA
- David Neelin, Deputy Editor, Science Advances, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565, USA
| | - Jeremy Jackson
- Shahid Naeem, Deputy Editor, Science Advances, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology (E3B), Columbia University, 1200 Amsterdam Ave, 10th Floor Schermerhorn Extension, MC5557, New York, NY, 10027, USA.
- Jeremy Jackson, Deputy Editor, Science Advances, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA; Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA, USA
- David Neelin, Deputy Editor, Science Advances, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565, USA
| | - David Neelin
- Shahid Naeem, Deputy Editor, Science Advances, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology (E3B), Columbia University, 1200 Amsterdam Ave, 10th Floor Schermerhorn Extension, MC5557, New York, NY, 10027, USA.
- Jeremy Jackson, Deputy Editor, Science Advances, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA; Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA, USA
- David Neelin, Deputy Editor, Science Advances, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565, USA
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5
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Saraswati CM, Judge MA, Weeda LJZ, Bassat Q, Prata N, Le Souëf PN, Bradshaw CJA. Net benefit of smaller human populations to environmental integrity and individual health and wellbeing. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1339933. [PMID: 38504675 PMCID: PMC10949988 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1339933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 03/21/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction The global human population is still growing such that our collective enterprise is driving environmental catastrophe. Despite a decline in average population growth rate, we are still experiencing the highest annual increase of global human population size in the history of our species-averaging an additional 84 million people per year since 1990. No review to date has accumulated the available evidence describing the associations between increasing population and environmental decline, nor solutions for mitigating the problems arising. Methods We summarize the available evidence of the relationships between human population size and growth and environmental integrity, human prosperity and wellbeing, and climate change. We used PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science to identify all relevant peer-reviewed and gray-literature sources examining the consequences of human population size and growth on the biosphere. We reviewed papers describing and quantifying the risks associated with population growth, especially relating to climate change. Results These risks are global in scale, such as greenhouse-gas emissions, climate disruption, pollution, loss of biodiversity, and spread of disease-all potentially catastrophic for human standards of living, health, and general wellbeing. The trends increasing the risks of global population growth are country development, demographics, maternal education, access to family planning, and child and maternal health. Conclusion Support for nations still going through a demographic transition is required to ensure progress occurs within planetary boundaries and promotes equity and human rights. Ensuring the wellbeing for all under this aim itself will lower population growth and further promote environmental sustainability.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Melinda A. Judge
- Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, WA, Australia
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA, Australia
| | - Lewis J. Z. Weeda
- School of Medicine, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA, Australia
| | - Quique Bassat
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clínic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
- Paediatrics Department, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu, Universitat de Barcelona, Esplugues, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red (CIBER) de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ndola Prata
- Bixby Center for Population Health and Sustainability, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
| | - Peter N. Le Souëf
- School of Medicine, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA, Australia
| | - Corey J. A. Bradshaw
- Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
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6
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Cheng C, Liu Z, Zhang Q, Tian X, Ju R, Li B, van Kleunen M, Chase JM, Wu J. Genotype diversity enhances invasion resistance of native plants via soil biotic feedbacks. Ecol Lett 2024; 27:e14384. [PMID: 38426584 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14384] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2023] [Revised: 01/22/2024] [Accepted: 01/24/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
Although native species diversity is frequently reported to enhance invasion resistance, within-species diversity of native plants can also moderate invasions. While the positive diversity-invasion resistance relationship is often attributed to competition, indirect effects mediated through plant-soil feedbacks can also influence the relationship. We manipulated the genotypic diversity of an endemic species, Scirpus mariqueter, and evaluated the effects of abiotic versus biotic feedbacks on the performance of a global invader, Spartina alterniflora. We found that invader performance on live soils decreased non-additively with genotypic diversity of the native plant that trained the soils, but this reversed when soils were sterilized to eliminate feedbacks through soil biota. The influence of soil biota on the feedback was primarily associated with increased levels of microbial biomass and fungal diversity in soils trained by multiple-genotype populations. Our findings highlight the importance of plant-soil feedbacks mediating the positive relationship between genotypic diversity and invasion resistance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cai Cheng
- National Observations and Research Station for Wetland Ecosystems of the Yangtze Estuary, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, Institute of Biodiversity Science and Institute of Eco-Chongming, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Zekang Liu
- National Observations and Research Station for Wetland Ecosystems of the Yangtze Estuary, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, Institute of Biodiversity Science and Institute of Eco-Chongming, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Qun Zhang
- Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Ecological Landscaping of Challenging Urban Sites, Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Landscaping on Challenging Urban Sites, Shanghai Academy of Landscape Architecture Science and Planning, Shanghai, China
| | - Xing Tian
- School of Ecology and Environment, Tibet University, Lhasa, China
| | - Ruiting Ju
- National Observations and Research Station for Wetland Ecosystems of the Yangtze Estuary, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, Institute of Biodiversity Science and Institute of Eco-Chongming, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Bo Li
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Ecosecurity of Southwest China, Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plant Reproductive Adaptation and Evolutionary Ecology and Centre for Invasion Biology, Institute of Biodiversity, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming, China
| | - Mark van Kleunen
- Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
- Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation, Taizhou University, Taizhou, China
| | - Jonathan M Chase
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Computer Science, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Jihua Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-Ecosystems, College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
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7
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Perret DL, Evans MEK, Sax DF. A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2304404120. [PMID: 38109562 PMCID: PMC10769845 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2304404120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2023] [Accepted: 10/23/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023] Open
Abstract
The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel L. Perret
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI02912
| | | | - Dov F. Sax
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI02912
- Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University, Providence, RI02912
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8
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Wiens JJ, Zelinka J. How many species will Earth lose to climate change? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17125. [PMID: 38273487 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2023] [Revised: 12/03/2023] [Accepted: 12/10/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- John J Wiens
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Joseph Zelinka
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
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9
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Ferrante L, Rojas-Ahumada D, Menin M, Fearnside PM. Climate change in the Central Amazon and its impacts on frog populations. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:1421. [PMID: 37932448 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-11997-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Accepted: 10/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/08/2023]
Abstract
Frog population declines have already been observed in the central Amazon even for common species that are considered not to be in danger of extinction. The Amazon is close to its limit of tolerated deforestation, and parts of the forest have already been modified by climate change, which raises questions about how the fauna in these areas would adapt to climate changes by the middle and the end of this century. In this study we used population density data on seven species of Amazonian frogs and analyzed the relationship between the activity of these species and temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. We also used the least-squares method with logarithmic models to assess whether climate change projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would be an indicator of the population dynamics of these species. Our results suggest that even common species may be may experience population declines and extinction in the next decades due to climate changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucas Ferrante
- Universidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
| | - Diana Rojas-Ahumada
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil
| | - Marcelo Menin
- Universidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil
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10
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Chessa C, Susca T. Development of an LCA characterization factor to account UHI local effect on terrestrial ecosystems damage category: Evaluation of European Bombus and Onthophagus genera heat-stress mortality. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 897:165183. [PMID: 37385499 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2023] [Revised: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 06/26/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
Life Cycle Assessment as currently implemented fails in detecting and measuring the interactions between urban climate and built environment, specifically the urban heat island, providing potentially misleading results. The present study offers an advancement in Life Cycle Assessment methodology, and specifically in ReCiPe2016 method, by (a) suggesting the implementation of the Local Warming Potential midpoint impact category where the variation of urban temperature converges; (b) developing a new characterization factor through the definition of damage pathways to assess the effect of urban heat island on terrestrial ecosystems damage category, specifically on European Bombus and Onthophagus genera; (c) defining local endpoint damage categories where environmental local impacts can be addressed. The developed characterization factor has been applied to the case study of an urban area in Rome, Italy. The results show that the evaluation of the effects of urban overheating on local terrestrial ecosystems is meaningful and may support urban decision-makers who want to holistically assess urban plans.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tiziana Susca
- ENEA Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Department Unit for Energy Efficiency, Italy.
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11
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Doherty S, Saltré F, Llewelyn J, Strona G, Williams SE, Bradshaw CJA. Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:5122-5138. [PMID: 37386726 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 05/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction-risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change-such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios-with predictions of trophic cascades and co-extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real-world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real-world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co-extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real-world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co-extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co-extinction (or those that might trigger co-extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co-extinction cascades and additional species losses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seamus Doherty
- Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Frédérik Saltré
- Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - John Llewelyn
- Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Giovanni Strona
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
- Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Stephen E Williams
- Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Corey J A Bradshaw
- Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
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12
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Strona G, Bradshaw CJA, Cardoso P, Gotelli NJ, Guillaume F, Manca F, Mustonen V, Zaman L. Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities. PLoS Comput Biol 2023; 19:e1011268. [PMID: 37498846 PMCID: PMC10374110 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/13/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Permafrost thawing and the potential 'lab leak' of ancient microorganisms generate risks of biological invasions for today's ecological communities, including threats to human health via exposure to emergent pathogens. Whether and how such 'time-travelling' invaders could establish in modern communities is unclear, and existing data are too scarce to test hypotheses. To quantify the risks of time-travelling invasions, we isolated digital virus-like pathogens from the past records of coevolved artificial life communities and studied their simulated invasion into future states of the community. We then investigated how invasions affected diversity of the free-living bacteria-like organisms (i.e., hosts) in recipient communities compared to controls where no invasion occurred (and control invasions of contemporary pathogens). Invading pathogens could often survive and continue evolving, and in a few cases (3.1%) became exceptionally dominant in the invaded community. Even so, invaders often had negligible effects on the invaded community composition; however, in a few, highly unpredictable cases (1.1%), invaders precipitated either substantial losses (up to -32%) or gains (up to +12%) in the total richness of free-living species compared to controls. Given the sheer abundance of ancient microorganisms regularly released into modern communities, such a low probability of outbreak events still presents substantial risks. Our findings therefore suggest that unpredictable threats so far confined to science fiction and conjecture could in fact be powerful drivers of ecological change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Strona
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D-Sustainable Resources, Ispra, Italy
- Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Corey J A Bradshaw
- Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, Australia
| | - Pedro Cardoso
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research-LIBRe, Finnish Museum of Natural History Luomus, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Nicholas J Gotelli
- Department of Biology, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, United States of America
| | - Frédéric Guillaume
- Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Federica Manca
- Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ville Mustonen
- Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Biotechnology, Department of Computer Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Luis Zaman
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
- Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
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da Silva JP, Sousa R, Gonçalves DV, Miranda R, Reis J, Teixeira A, Varandas S, Lopes-Lima M, Filipe AF. Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: Predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 883:163689. [PMID: 37100131 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163689] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2023] [Revised: 04/18/2023] [Accepted: 04/19/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is becoming the leading driver of biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region, particularly southwestern Europe, is already confronting the consequences of ongoing global warming. Unprecedented biodiversity declines have been recorded, particularly within freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater mussels contribute to essential ecosystem services but are among the most threatened faunal groups on Earth. Their poor conservation status is related to the dependence on fish hosts to complete the life cycle, which also makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict species distributions, but often disregard the potential effect of biotic interactions. This study investigated the potential impact of future climate on the distribution of freshwater mussel species while considering their obligatory interaction with fish hosts. Specifically, ensemble models were used to forecast the current and future distribution of six mussel species in the Iberian Peninsula, including environmental conditions and the distribution of fish hosts as predictors. We found that climate change is expected to severely impact the future distribution of Iberian mussels. Species with narrow ranges, namely Margaritifera margaritifera and Unio tumidiformis, were predicted to have their suitable habitats nearly lost and could potentially be facing regional and global extinctions, respectively. Anodonta anatina, Potomida littoralis, and particularly Unio delphinus and Unio mancus, are expected to suffer distributional losses but may gain new suitable habitats. A shift in their distribution to new suitable areas is only possible if fish hosts are able to disperse while carrying larvae. We also found that including the distribution of fish hosts in the mussels' models avoided the underprediction of habitat loss under climate change. This study warns of the imminent loss of mussel species and populations and the urgent need of management actions to reverse current trends and mitigate irreversible damage to species and ecosystems in Mediterranean regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janine P da Silva
- CBMA - Centre of Molecular and Environmental Biology, Department of Biology, University of Minho, Campus Gualtar, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal.
| | - Ronaldo Sousa
- CBMA - Centre of Molecular and Environmental Biology, Department of Biology, University of Minho, Campus Gualtar, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal
| | - Duarte Vasconcelos Gonçalves
- CIIMAR - Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental, University of Porto, 4450-208 Matosinhos, Portugal
| | - Rafael Miranda
- Instituto de Biodiversidad y Medioambiente (BIOMA), Universidad de Navarra, Irunlarrea 1, 31008, Navarra, Spain
| | - Joaquim Reis
- MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre//ARNET-Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Amílcar Teixeira
- Centro de Investigação de Montanha (CIMO), Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Campus de Santa Apolónia, 5300-253 Bragança, Portugal
| | - Simone Varandas
- CITAB-UTAD - Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Forestry Department, Vila Real, Portugal; CIBIO/InBIO - Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, University of Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal
| | - Manuel Lopes-Lima
- CIBIO/InBIO - Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, University of Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal
| | - Ana Filipa Filipe
- Forest Research Centre and Associated Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal; TERRA Associate Laboratory, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
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14
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Novel physiological data needed for progress in global change ecology. Basic Appl Ecol 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2023.01.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
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