Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood

Bracing for impact: how shifting precipitation extremes may influence physical climate risks in an uncertain future

As extreme precipitation intensifies under climate change, traditional risk models based on the '100-year return period' concept are becoming inadequate in assessing real-world risks. In response, this nationwide study explores shifting extremes under non-stationary warming using high-resolution data across the contiguous United States. Results reveal pronounced variability in 100-year return levels, with Coastal and Southern regions displaying the highest baseline projections, and future spikes are anticipated in the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Northwest, and California. Exposure analysis indicates approximately 53 million residents currently reside in high-risk zones, potentially almost doubling and tripling under 2 °C and 4 °C warming. Drought frequency also rises, with over 37% of major farmland vulnerable to multi-year droughts, raising agricultural risks. Record 2023 sea surface temperature anomalies suggest an impending extreme El Niño event, demonstrating the need to account for natural climate variability. The insights gained aim to inform decision-makers in shaping adaptation strategies and enhancing the resilience of communities in response to evolving extremes.

California's 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term "snow deluge" and use anomalously high snowpack in California's Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California's 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges-which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event-are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Impact of Environmental Protection Tax on carbon intensity in China

In the context of increasingly severe global climate change, finding effective carbon emission reduction strategies has become key to mitigating climate change. Environmental Protection Tax (EPT), as a widely recognized method, effectively promotes climate change mitigation by encouraging emission reduction behaviors and promoting the application of clean technologies. Based on data from 282 cities in China, this paper takes the official implementation of the EPT in 2018 as the policy impact and the cities with increased tax rates for air taxable pollutants as the treatment group and uses DID model to systematically demonstrate the relationship between the implementation of the EPT and carbon intensity (CI) and further explores the possible pollutant emissions and green innovation mediating effects. The findings show that (1) the implementation of EPT can effectively reduce CI by about 4.75%, and this conclusion still holds after considering the robustness of variable selection bias, elimination of other normal effects, policy setting time bias, and self-selection bias. (2) The implementation of EPT can reduce CI by reducing pollutant emissions and improving the level of green innovation. (3) There is obvious regional heterogeneity in the carbon reduction effect of EPT, and the implementation of EPT has a more significant effect on CI in medium-tax areas, low environmental concern areas, general cities, and eastern regions. This paper not only provides a new analytical perspective for systematically understanding the carbon emission reduction effect of EPT but also provides policy insights for promoting regional green transformation and advancing carbon peak carbon neutralization.

Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases

A comprehensive understanding of human-induced changes to rainfall is essential for water resource management and infrastructure design. However, at regional scales, existing detection and attribution studies are rarely able to conclusively identify human influence on precipitation. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the primary drivers of precipitation change over the United States. GHG emissions increase mean and extreme precipitation from rain gauge measurements across all seasons, while the decadal-scale effect of global aerosol emissions decreases precipitation. Local aerosol emissions further offset GHG increases in the winter and spring but enhance rainfall during the summer and fall. Our results show that the conflicting literature on historical precipitation trends can be explained by offsetting aerosol and greenhouse gas signals. At the scale of the United States, individual climate models reproduce observed changes but cannot confidently determine whether a given anthropogenic agent has increased or decreased rainfall.

Modeling the impact of future rainfall changes on the effectiveness of urban stormwater control measures

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming decades. Using outputs from an ensemble of global climate models to drive a high spatial resolution stormwater model, we analyzed climate change impacts on urban stormwater runoff and control measures for 23 cities across the United States. Runoff model outputs for two future emissions scenarios ending in 2055 were compared against a historical scenario to assess changes. All cities showed increases in average annual stormwater runoff, with changes up to 30% over the next 30 years due to a greater frequency of high intensity storm events. Runoff model outputs showed substantial variation across cities with untreated stormwater runoff increasing by as much as 48%. Patterns of future runoff impacts within cities will affect the performance of distributed treatment strategies such as Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) to meet municipal water quality improvement and runoff reduction goals. Results indicate that adoption of adaptable design standards and decision support tools that readily accommodate projected precipitation changes are critical for supporting more resilient designs of stormwater control measures.

Temporal compounding increases economic impacts of atmospheric rivers in California

Temporally compounding atmospheric river (AR) events cause severe flooding and damage in California. However, the contribution of temporal compounding to AR-induced loss has yet to be systematically quantified. We show that the strongest ARs are more likely to be part of sequences, which are periods of elevated hydrologic hazard associated with temporally clustered ARs. Sequences increase the likelihood of flood-related impacts by 8.3% on AR days and 5.4% on non-AR days, and across two independent loss datasets, we find that ARs within sequences have over three times higher expected losses compared to ARs outside of sequences. Expected losses also increase when the preceding AR is higher intensity, when time since the preceding AR is shorter, and when an AR is the second or later event within a sequence. We conclude that temporal compounding is a critical source of information for predicting an AR's potential consequences.

The dog as a sentinel and animal model for coccidioidomycosis

Coccidioidomycosis is a potentially fatal fungal disease of humans and animals that follows inhalation of Coccidioides spp. arthroconidia in the environment. The disease in dogs resembles that in people, and because dogs may be at increased risk of exposure due to their proximity to the ground and digging behavior, they are valuable models for the disease in humans. Dogs have been sentinels for identification of new regions of endemicity in Washington and Texas. Canine serosurveillance has also been used to predict variables associated with environmental presence of Coccidioides spp. Expansion of the endemic region of coccidioidomycosis with climate change-along with predicted population increases and increased development in the southwest United States-may result in 45.4 million additional people at risk of infection by 2090. Here we provide an overview of the value of dogs as sentinels for the disease and encourage the routine reporting of coccidioidomycosis cases in dogs to public health agencies. We also highlight the value of dogs as naturally occurring models for studying novel treatment options and preventatives, such as a novel live avirulent coccidioidomycosis vaccine.

Sea level rise and the drivers of daily water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Water levels in deltas and estuaries vary on multiple timescales due to coastal, hydrologic, meteorologic, geologic, and anthropogenic factors. These diverse factors increase the uncertainty of, and may bias, relative sea level rise (RSLR) estimates. Here, we evaluate RSLR in San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, USA by applying a physics-based, nonlinear regression to 50 tide gauges that determines the spatially varying controls on daily mean water level for water years 2004-2022. Results show that elevated river flow and pumping (99th percentile) raise water level up to 6 m and lower it up to 0.35 m, respectively, and coastal water level variations are attenuated by 30-60% within the Delta. Strong westerly winds raise water level up to 0.17 m, and tidal-fluvial interaction during spring tides and low discharge raises water level up to 0.15 m. Removal of these interfering factors greatly improves RSLR estimates, narrowing 95% confidence intervals by 89-99% and removing bias due to recent drought. Results show that RSLR is spatially heterogeneous, with rates ranging from - 2.8 to 12.9 mm y-1 (95% uncertainties < 1 mm y-1). RSLR also exceeds coastal SLR of 3.3 mm y-1 in San Francisco at 85% of stations. Thus, RSLR in the Delta is strongly influenced by local vertical land motion and will likely produce significantly different, location-dependent future flood risk trajectories.

Groundwater uranium contamination from produced water disposal to unlined ponds in the San Joaquin Valley

In the southern San Joaquin Valley (SJV) of California, an agriculturally productive region that relies on groundwater for irrigation and domestic water supply, the infiltration of produced water from oil reservoirs is known to impact groundwater due to percolation from unlined disposal ponds. However, previously documented impacts almost exclusively focus on salinity, while contaminant loadings commonly associated with produced water (e.g., radionuclides) are poorly constrained. For example, the infiltration of bicarbonate-rich produced waters can react with sediment-bound uranium (U), leading to U mobilization and subsequent transport to nearby groundwater. Specifically, produced water infiltration poses a particular concern for SJV groundwater, as valley-fill sediments are well documented to be enriched in geogenic, reduced U. Here, we analyzed monitoring well data from two SJV produced water pond facilities to characterize U mobilization and subsequent groundwater contamination. Groundwater wells installed within 2 km of the facilities contained produced water and elevated levels of uranium. There are >400 produced water disposal pond facilities in the southern SJV. If our observations occur at even a fraction of these facilities, there is the potential for widespread U contamination in the groundwaters of one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world.

North Atlantic meltwater during Heinrich Stadial 1 drives wetter climate with more atmospheric rivers in western North America

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring concentrated rainfall and flooding to the western United States (US) and are hypothesized to have supported sustained hydroclimatic changes in the past. However, their ephemeral nature makes it challenging to document ARs in climate models and estimate their contribution to hydroclimate changes recorded by time-averaged paleoclimate archives. We present new climate model simulations of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16,000 years before the present), an interval characterized by widespread wetness in the western US, that demonstrate increased AR frequency and winter precipitation sourced from the southeastern North Pacific. These changes are amplified with freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic, indicating that North Atlantic cooling associated with weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key driver of HS1 climate in this region. As recent observations suggest potential weakening of AMOC, our identified connection between North Atlantic climate and northeast Pacific AR activity has implications for future western US hydroclimate.

Future projection of climate extremes across contiguous northeast India and Bangladesh

In recent times, India has experienced a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly in northeast India (NEI), an area known for its rich natural resources. Despite the geographic continuity of NEI and Bangladesh, previous studies have failed to consider their interconnectedness, resulting in an incomplete understanding of the situation. To bridge this gap, a comprehensive study encompassed the entire NEI, including West Bengal and Bangladesh (hereafter referred to as NEIB). This study examined climate extremes in NEIB, utilizing 12 temperature-based and 8 precipitation-based indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Analysis was performed on temperature and precipitation data obtained from the India Meteorological Department and Bangladesh Meteorological Department covering the period 1981-2021. Additionally, climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models participating in the CMIP6 were incorporated for the period 2015-2100, considering four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Findings revealed that under the SSP585 scenario, a substantial rise of 4 °C in maximum temperatures and 5.5 °C in minimum temperatures by the end of the twenty-first century. Warming indices, such as the summer days index, indicated an expected increase of 53 days, while the Warm spell days index was estimated to rise by approximately 2 days. Heavy precipitation days (R20mm) were projected to increase by up to 14 days, with a notable impact in Meghalaya. While the number of rainy days is expected to decrease, the overall magnitude of precipitation is anticipated to remain relatively stable. Notably, the Simple daily intensity index demonstrated a rise of 2.4 mm/day compared to the current baseline of 14.4 mm/day. These projected changes have significant ramifications for water resources, agriculture, health, and infrastructure in the region.

Complex relationships between climate and reproduction in a resident montane bird

Animals use climate-related environmental cues to fine-tune breeding timing and investment to match peak food availability. In birds, spring temperature is a commonly documented cue used to initiate breeding, but with global climate change, organisms are experiencing both directional changes in ambient temperatures and extreme year-to-year precipitation fluctuations. Montane environments exhibit complex climate patterns where temperatures and precipitation change along elevational gradients, and where exacerbated annual variation in precipitation has resulted in extreme swings between heavy snow and drought. We used 10 years of data to investigate how annual variation in climatic conditions is associated with differences in breeding phenology and reproductive performance in resident mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli) at two elevations in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, USA. Variation in spring temperature was not associated with differences in breeding phenology across elevations in our system. Greater snow accumulation was associated with later breeding initiation at high, but not low, elevation. Brood size was reduced under drought, but only at low elevation. Our data suggest complex relationships between climate and avian reproduction and point to autumn climate as important for reproductive performance, likely via its effect on phenology and abundance of invertebrates.

Unequal exposure to heatwaves in Los Angeles: Impact of uneven green spaces

Cities worldwide are experiencing record-breaking summer temperatures. Urban environments exacerbate extreme heat, resulting in not only the urban heat island but also intracity variations in heat exposure. Understanding these disparities is crucial to support equitable climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. We found persistent negative correlations between daytime land surface temperature (LST) and median household income across the Los Angeles metropolitan area based on Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station observations from 2018 to 2021. Lower evapotranspiration resulting from the unequal distribution of vegetation cover is a major factor leading to higher LST in low-income neighborhoods. Disparities worsen with higher regional mean surface temperature, with a $10,000 decrease in income leading to ~0.2°C LST increase at 20°C and up to ~0.7°C at 45°C. With more frequent and intense heat waves projected in the future, equitable mitigation measures, such as increasing surface albedo and tree cover in low-income neighborhoods, are necessary to address these disparities.

Dynamics of organic matter in the changing environment of a stratified marine lake over two decades

The marine lake (Rogoznica Lake), which fluctuates between stratified and holomictic conditions, is a unique environment on the eastern Adriatic coast affected by environmental changes. These changes are reflected in the warming of the water column, the apparent deoxygenation of the epilimnion, and the accumulation of organic matter (OM), toxic sulfide, and ammonium in the anoxic hypolimnion. Since the early 1990s, the volume of anoxic water has increased as the chemocline has moved to the surface water layer. A trend toward enrichment of refractory dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was observed in the anoxic hypolimnion, while a decreasing trend was observed in the oxic epilimnion in the spring DOC. At the same time, the most reactive surface-active fraction of DOC showed the opposite trend. In addition, there is evidence of accumulation of particulate organic carbon (POC) in the water column, followed by an increase in the fraction of POC in total organic carbon (TOC). On a multi-year scale (1996-2020), this work presents a unique time series of the dynamics of OM in the stratified marine system, showing a significant change in its quantity and quality due to climate and environmental variability. DOC-normalized surfactant activity is shown to be a good indicator of environmental change.

Sierra Nevada amphibians demonstrate stable occupancy despite precipitation volatility in the early 21st Century

Climate can have a strong influence on species distributions, and amphibians with different life histories might be affected by annual variability in precipitation in different ways. The Sierra Nevada of California, United States, experienced some of the driest and wettest years on record in the early 21st Century, with variability in annual precipitation predicted to increase with climate change. We examined the relationship between adult occupancy dynamics of three high elevation anurans and site and annual variation in measures of winter severity, summer wetness, and cumulative drought. We further evaluated how these weather conditions affected the probability that each species would reproduce, conditional on their occurrence at a site. We found that although different aspects of weather affected the occupancy dynamics of each species differently, adult occupancy probabilities were generally stable throughout our 15-year study period. The probability of reproduction, although slightly more variable than adult occupancy, was similarly stable throughout the study. Although occurrence of the three species was resilient to recent extremes in precipitation, more detailed demographic study would inform the extent to which amphibian populations will remain resilient to increasing severity, duration, and frequency of drought and flood cycles.

Are Women More Vulnerable to Flooding Than Men in an Aging Japanese Society?

It is a well-accepted notion that women are more vulnerable to natural disasters than men, especially in developing countries. However, in developed countries, how women's empowerment by economic and social development has reduced the gender gap in vulnerability remains insufficiently answered. As Japan passed its golden age, moving into an aging society, a study on how the gender difference in flood vulnerability has evolved can contribute to a better understanding of the types and causes of vulnerability, leading to better flood risk management in a new social context. Following this thinking, the present study conducted a longitudinal analysis using representative flooding cases in Japan over a period of forty years. It found that the women's fatality rate increased with age much faster than men's in the 1980s but reversed in a recent major flood disaster. It also revealed that most flood disaster victims were elderly in recent years. These findings suggest that the flood vulnerability at present is more driven by age-related physical ability decline, much less relevant to gender. Based on the results, it proposed a new framework for assessing flood vulnerability in an aging society. Such outcomes can help with the better formulation of flood management policies and probing into solutions.