A transient rise in tropical sea surface temperature during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

Long- and short-term coupling of sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 during the late Paleocene and early Eocene

The late Paleocene and early Eocene (LPEE) are characterized by long-term (million years, Myr) global warming and by transient, abrupt (kiloyears, kyr) warming events, termed hyperthermals. Although both have been attributed to greenhouse (CO2) forcing, the longer-term trend in climate was likely influenced by additional forcing factors (i.e., tectonics) and the extent to which warming was driven by atmospheric CO2 remains unclear. Here, we use a suite of new and existing observations from planktic foraminifera collected at Pacific Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1209 and 1210 and inversion of a multiproxy Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric CO2 over a 6-Myr interval. Our reconstructions span the initiation of long-term LPEE warming (~58 Ma), and the two largest Paleogene hyperthermals, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2, ~54 Ma). Our results show strong coupling between CO2 and temperature over the long- (LPEE) and short-term (PETM and ETM-2) but differing Pacific climate sensitivities over the two timescales. Combined CO2 and carbon isotope trends imply the carbon source driving CO2 increase was likely methanogenic, organic, or mixed for the PETM and organic for ETM-2, whereas a source with higher δ13C values (e.g., volcanic degassing) is associated with the long-term LPEE. Reconstructed emissions for the PETM (5,800 Gt C) and ETM-2 (3,800 Gt C) are comparable in mass to future emission scenarios, reinforcing the value of these events as analogs of anthropogenic change.

Oxygen rise in the tropical upper ocean during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

The global ocean's oxygen inventory is declining in response to global warming, but the future of the low-oxygen tropics is uncertain. We report new evidence for tropical oxygenation during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a warming event that serves as a geologic analog to anthropogenic warming. Foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes indicate that the tropical North Pacific oxygen-deficient zone contracted during the PETM. A concomitant increase in foraminifera size implies that oxygen availability rose in the shallow subsurface throughout the tropical North Pacific. These changes are consistent with ocean model simulations of warming, in which a decline in biological productivity allows tropical subsurface oxygen to rise even as global ocean oxygen declines. The tropical oxygen increase may have helped avoid a mass extinction during the PETM.

The build-up of the present-day tropical diversity of tetrapods

The extraordinary number of species in the tropics when compared to the extra-tropics is probably the most prominent and consistent pattern in biogeography, suggesting that overarching processes regulate this diversity gradient. A major challenge to characterizing which processes are at play relies on quantifying how the frequency and determinants of tropical and extra-tropical speciation, extinction, and dispersal events shaped evolutionary radiations. We address this question by developing and applying spatiotemporal phylogenetic and paleontological models of diversification for tetrapod species incorporating paleoenvironmental variation. Our phylogenetic model results show that area, energy, or species richness did not uniformly affect speciation rates across tetrapods and dispute expectations of a latitudinal gradient in speciation rates. Instead, both neontological and fossil evidence coincide in underscoring the role of extra-tropical extinctions and the outflow of tropical species in shaping biodiversity. These diversification dynamics accurately predict present-day levels of species richness across latitudes and uncover temporal idiosyncrasies but spatial generality across the major tetrapod radiations.

ACD-containing chaperones reveal the divergent thermo-tolerance in penaeid shrimp

The α-crystallin domain-containing (ACD-containing) gene family, which includes typical small heat shock proteins (sHSPs), is the most ubiquitous and diverse family of putative chaperones in all organisms, including eukaryotes and prokaryotes. In the present study, approximately 54-117 ACD-containing genes were identified in five penaeid shrimp species, yielding a significant expansion in comparison with other crustaceans (generally 6-20 ACD-containing genes). Unlike typical sHSPs, which contain a single ACD domain, the ACD-containing genes of penaeid shrimp contain additional ACD domains (3-7 domains, in general), thus having a larger molecular weight and a more complex 3D structure. As indicated by the RNA-seq and qRT-PCR results, the ACD-containing genes of penaeid shrimp showed a strong response to high temperatures. Furthermore, heterologous expression and citrate synthase assays of three representative ACD-containing genes confirmed that their chaperone activity could enhance the thermo-tolerance of E. coli and prevent the aggregation of substrate proteins at high temperatures. Compared with penaeid shrimp species with a relatively low thermo-tolerance (Fenneropenaeus chinensis and Marsupenaeus japonicus), the species with high thermo-tolerance (Litopenaeus vannamei and Fenneropenaeus indicus) contained more ACD-containing genes due to tandem duplication and exhibited biased expression levels under high temperatures. This can explain the divergent thermo-tolerance of different penaeid shrimp species. In conclusion, the ACD-containing genes in penaeid shrimp could be assigned as new chaperones and contribute to their divergent thermo-tolerance phenotypes and adaptations to the ecological environment.

An animal crisis caused by pollution, deforestation, and warming in the late 21st century and exacerbation by nuclear war

An environmental-animal crisis is currently ongoing and is becoming increasingly severe due to human activity. However, the magnitude, timing, and processes related to this crisis are unclear. This paper clarifies the likely magnitude and timing of animal extinctions and changes in the contribution rates of select causes (global warming, pollution, deforestation, and two hypothetical nuclear conflicts) of animal extinctions during 2000-2300 CE. This paper demonstrates that an animal crisis marked by a 5-13% terrestrial tetrapod species loss and 2-6% marine animal species loss will occur in the next generation during 2060-2080 CE if humans do not engage in nuclear wars. These variations are due to magnitudes of pollution, deforestation, and global warming. The main causes of this crisis will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2030 under the low CO₂ emission scenarios but will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2070 and then to deforestation and global warming after 2090 under the medium CO₂ emissions. A nuclear conflict will increase animal species loss up to approximately 40-70% for terrestrial tetrapod species and 25-50% for marine animal species, including errors. Therefore, this study shows that the animal species conservation priority is to prevent nuclear war, reduce deforestation rates, decrease pollution, and limit global warming, in this order.

North Atlantic surface ocean warming and salinization in response to middle Eocene greenhouse warming

Quantitative reconstructions of hydrological change during ancient greenhouse warming events provide valuable insight into warmer-than-modern hydrological cycles but are limited by paleoclimate proxy uncertainties. We present sea surface temperature (SST) records and seawater oxygen isotope (δ18Osw) estimates for the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO), using coupled carbonate clumped isotope (Δ47) and oxygen isotope (δ18Oc) data of well-preserved planktonic foraminifera from the North Atlantic Newfoundland Drifts. These indicate a transient ~3°C warming across the MECO, with absolute temperatures generally in accordance with trace element (Mg/Ca)-based SSTs but lower than biomarker-based SSTs for the same interval. We find a transient ~0.5‰ shift toward higher δ18Osw, which implies increased salinity in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre and potentially a poleward expansion of its northern boundary in response to greenhouse warming. These observations provide constraints on dynamic ocean response to warming events, which are consistent with theory and model simulations predicting an enhanced hydrological cycle under global warming.

The PhanSST global database of Phanerozoic sea surface temperature proxy data

Paleotemperature proxy data form the cornerstone of paleoclimate research and are integral to understanding the evolution of the Earth system across the Phanerozoic Eon. Here, we present PhanSST, a database containing over 150,000 data points from five proxy systems that can be used to estimate past sea surface temperature. The geochemical data have a near-global spatial distribution and temporally span most of the Phanerozoic. Each proxy value is associated with consistent and queryable metadata fields, including information about the location, age, and taxonomy of the organism from which the data derive. To promote transparency and reproducibility, we include all available published data, regardless of interpreted preservation state or vital effects. However, we also provide expert-assigned diagenetic assessments, ecological and environmental flags, and other proxy-specific fields, which facilitate informed and responsible reuse of the database. The data are quality control checked and the foraminiferal taxonomy has been updated. PhanSST will serve as a valuable resource to the paleoclimate community and has myriad applications, including evolutionary, geochemical, diagenetic, and proxy calibration studies.

Extinction magnitude of animals in the near future

There have been five major mass extinctions and some minor mass extinctions of animals since early animal diversification 540-520 Myr ago. It is said that a sixth mass extinction is already underway. However, the future extinction magnitude has not been quantitatively estimated. Here, I show that the sixth major mass extinction (defined as > 60% species loss) will be avoided, but a minor mass extinction, 20-50% animal species loss (1% now), will occur when humans cause nuclear war and/or fail to stop increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, pollution, and deforestation until 2060-2080 CE. When humans decrease GHG emissions, pollution, and deforestation in 40 years and prevent nuclear war in the future, 10-15% animal species loss will occur. Humans should stop not only industrial GHG emissions but also deforestation, environmental pollution, and nuclear war to prevent this mass extinction. When humans fail to stop these processes, significant decreases in biodiversity and the human population and a collapse of ecological balance will occur on Earth.

Photosymbiont associations persisted in planktic foraminifera during early Eocene hyperthermals at Shatsky Rise (Pacific Ocean)

Understanding the sensitivity of species-level responses to long-term warming will become increasingly important as we look towards a warmer future. Here, we examine photosymbiont associations in planktic foraminifera at Shatsky Rise (ODP Site 1209, Pacific Ocean) across periods of global warming of differing magnitude and duration. We compare published data from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~55.9 Ma) with data from the less intense Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2; ~54.0 Ma), and H2 events (~53.9 Ma). We use a positive relationship between test size and carbon isotope value (size-δ13C) in foraminifera shells as a proxy for photosymbiosis in Morozovella subbotinae and Acarinina soldadoensis, and find no change in photosymbiont associations during the less intense warming events, in contrast with PETM records indicating a shift in symbiosis in A. soldadoensis (but not M. subbotinae). Declines in abundance and differing preservation potential of the asymbiotic species Subbotina roesnaesensis along with sediment mixing likely account for diminished differences in δ13C between symbiotic and asymbiotic species from the PETM and ETM2. We therefore conclude that photosymbiont associations were maintained in both A. soldadoensis and M. subbotinae across ETM2 and H2. Our findings support one or both of the hypotheses that 1) changing symbiotic associations in response to warming during the PETM allowed A. soldadoensis and perhaps other acarininids to thrive through subsequent hyperthermals or 2) some critical environmental threshold value was not reached in these less intense hyperthermals.

Using paleoecological data to inform decision making: A deep-time perspective

Latest climate models project conditions for the end of this century that are generally outside of the human experience. These future conditions affect the resilience and sustainability of ecosystems, alter biogeographic zones, and impact biodiversity. Deep-time records of paleoclimate provide insight into the climate system over millions of years and provide examples of conditions very different from the present day, and in some cases similar to model projections for the future. In addition, the deep-time paleoecologic and sedimentologic archives provide insight into how species and habitats responded to past climate conditions. Thus, paleoclimatology provides essential context for the scientific understanding of climate change needed to inform resource management policy decisions. The Pliocene Epoch (5.3–2.6 Ma) is the most recent deep-time interval with relevance to future global warming. Analysis of marine sediments using a combination of paleoecology, biomarkers, and geochemistry indicates a global mean annual temperature for the Late Pliocene (3.6–2.6 Ma) ∼3°C warmer than the preindustrial. However, the inability of state-of-the-art climate models to capture some key regional features of Pliocene warming implies future projections using these same models may not span the full range of plausible future climate conditions. We use the Late Pliocene as one example of a deep-time interval relevant to management of biodiversity and ecosystems in a changing world. Pliocene reconstructed sea surface temperatures are used to drive a marine ecosystem model for the North Atlantic Ocean. Given that boundary conditions for the Late Pliocene are roughly analogous to present day, driving the marine ecosystem model with Late Pliocene paleoenvironmental conditions allows policymakers to consider a future ocean state and associated fisheries impacts independent of climate models, informed directly by paleoclimate information.

Molecular phylogeny of Thoracotremata crabs (Decapoda, Brachyura): toward adopting monophyletic superfamilies, invasion history into terrestrial habitats and multiple origins of symbiosis

The Thoracotremata is a large and successful group of "true" crabs (Decapoda, Brachyura, Eubrachyura) with a great diversity of lifestyles and well-known intertidal representatives. The group represents the largest brachyuran radiation into terrestrial and semi-terrestrial environments and comprises multiple lineages of obligate symbiotic species. In consequence, they exhibit very diverse physiological and morphological adaptations. Our understanding of their evolution is, however, largely obscured by their confused classification. Here, we resolve interfamilial relationships of Thoracotremata, using 10 molecular markers and exemplars from all nominal families in order to reconstruct the pathways of lifestyle transition and to propose a new taxonomy corresponding to phylogenetic relationships. The results confirm the polyphyly of three superfamilies as currently defined (Grapsoidea, Ocypodoidea and Pinnotheroidea). At the family level, Dotillidae, Macrophthalmidae, and Varunidae are not monophyletic. Ancestral state reconstruction analyses and divergent time estimations indicate that the common ancestor of thoracotremes already thrived in intertidal environments in the Late Cretaceous and terrestrialization became a major driver of thoracotreme diversification. Multiple semi-terrestrial and terrestrial lineages originated and radiated in the Early Eocene, coinciding with the global warming event at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Secondary invasions into subtidal regions and colonizations of freshwater habitats occurred independently through multiple semi-terrestrial and terrestrial lineages. Obligate symbiosis between thoracotremes and other marine macro-invertebrates evolved at least twice. On the basis of the current molecular phylogenetic hypothesis, it will be necessary in the future to revise and recognize seven monophyletic superfamilies and revisit the morphological character states which define them.

Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions

Climate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity. However, the quantitative relationship between temperature change and extinction is unclear. Here, we analyze magnitudes and rates of temperature change and extinction rates of marine fossils through the past 450 million years (Myr). The results show that both the rate and magnitude of temperature change are significantly positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals. Major mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic can be linked to thresholds in climate change (warming or cooling) that equate to magnitudes >5.2 °C and rates >10 °C/Myr. The significant relationship between temperature change and extinction still exists when we exclude the five largest mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. Our findings predict that a temperature increase of 5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts.

Greenhouse conditions in lower Eocene coastal wetlands?-Lessons from Schöningen, Northern Germany

The Paleogene succession of the Helmstedt Lignite Mining District in Northern Germany includes coastal peat mire records from the latest Paleocene to the middle Eocene at the southern edge of the Proto-North Sea. Therefore, it covers the different long- and short-term climate perturbations of the Paleogene greenhouse. 56 samples from three individual sections of a lower Eocene seam in the record capture the typical succession of the vegetation in a coastal wetland during a period that was not affected by climate perturbation. This allows facies-dependent vegetational changes to be distinguished from those that were climate induced. Cluster analyses and NMDS of well-preserved palynomorph assemblages reveal four successional stages in the vegetation during peat accumulation: (1) a coastal vegetation, (2) an initial mire, (3) a transitional mire, and (4) a terminal mire. Biodiversity measures show that plant diversity decreased significantly in the successive stages. The highly diverse vegetation at the coast and in the adjacent initial mire was replaced by low diversity communities adapted to wet acidic environments and nutrient deficiency. The palynomorph assemblages are dominated by elements such as Alnus (Betulaceae) or Sphagnum (Sphagnaceae). Typical tropical elements which are characteristic for the middle Eocene part of the succession are missing. This indicates that a more warm-temperate climate prevailed in northwestern Germany during the early lower Eocene.

The seawater carbon inventory at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) (55.6 Mya) was a geologically rapid carbon-release event that is considered the closest natural analog to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Recent work has used boron-based proxies in planktic foraminifera to characterize the extent of surface-ocean acidification that occurred during the event. However, seawater acidity alone provides an incomplete constraint on the nature and source of carbon release. Here, we apply previously undescribed culture calibrations for the B/Ca proxy in planktic foraminifera and use them to calculate relative changes in seawater-dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration, surmising that Pacific surface-ocean DIC increased by [Formula: see text] µmol/kg during the peak-PETM. Making reasonable assumptions for the pre-PETM oceanic DIC inventory, we provide a fully data-driven estimate of the PETM carbon source. Our reconstruction yields a mean source carbon δ¹³C of -10‰ and a mean increase in the oceanic C inventory of +14,900 petagrams of carbon (PgC), pointing to volcanic CO₂ emissions as the main carbon source responsible for PETM warming.

How corals made rocks through the ages

Hard, or stony, corals make rocks that can, on geological time scales, lead to the formation of massive reefs in shallow tropical and subtropical seas. In both historical and contemporary oceans, reef-building corals retain information about the marine environment in their skeletons, which is an organic-inorganic composite material. The elemental and isotopic composition of their skeletons is frequently used to reconstruct the environmental history of Earth's oceans over time, including temperature, pH, and salinity. Interpretation of this information requires knowledge of how the organisms formed their skeletons. The basic mechanism of formation of calcium carbonate skeleton in stony corals has been studied for decades. While some researchers consider coral skeletons as mainly passive recorders of ocean conditions, it has become increasingly clear that biological processes play key roles in the biomineralization mechanism. Understanding the role of the animal in living stony coral biomineralization and how it evolved has profound implications for interpreting environmental signatures in fossil corals to understand past ocean conditions. Here we review historical hypotheses and discuss the present understanding of how corals evolved and how their skeletons changed over geological time. We specifically explain how biological processes, particularly those occurring at the subcellular level, critically control the formation of calcium carbonate structures. We examine the different models that address the current debate including the tissue-skeleton interface, skeletal organic matrix, and biomineralization pathways. Finally, we consider how understanding the biological control of coral biomineralization is critical to informing future models of coral vulnerability to inevitable global change, particularly increasing ocean acidification.

Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks

The Early Eocene, a period of elevated atmospheric CO₂ (>1000 ppmv), is considered an analog for future climate. Previous modeling attempts have been unable to reproduce major features of Eocene climate indicated by proxy data without substantial modification to the model physics. Here, we present simulations using a state-of-the-art climate model forced by proxy-estimated CO₂ levels that capture the extreme surface warmth and reduced latitudinal temperature gradient of the Early Eocene and the warming of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Our simulations exhibit increasing equilibrium climate sensitivity with warming and suggest an Eocene sensitivity of more than 6.6°C, much greater than the present-day value (4.2°C). This higher climate sensitivity is mainly attributable to the shortwave cloud feedback, which is linked primarily to cloud microphysical processes. Our findings highlight the role of small-scale cloud processes in determining large-scale climate changes and suggest a potential increase in climate sensitivity with future warming.

Carbon cycle instability and orbital forcing during the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is a global warming event that occurred at about 40 Ma. In comparison to the most known global warming events of the Paleogene, the MECO has some peculiar features that make its interpretation controversial. The main peculiarities of the MECO are a duration of ~500 kyr and a carbon isotope signature that varies from site to site. Here we present new carbon and oxygen stable isotopes records (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) from three foraminiferal genera dwelling at different depths throughout the water column and the sea bottom during the middle Eocene, from eastern Turkey. We document that the MECO is related to major oceanographic and climatic changes in the Neo-Tethys and also in other oceanic basins. The carbon isotope signature of the MECO is difficult to interpret because it is highly variable from site to site. We hypothesize that such δ¹³C signature indicates highly unstable oceanographic and carbon cycle conditions, which may have been forced by the coincidence between a 400 kyr and a 2.4 Myr orbital eccentricity minimum. Such forcing has been also suggested for the Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Events, which resemble the MECO event more than the Cenozoic hyperthermals.

Prolonged Late Permian-Early Triassic hyperthermal: failure of climate regulation?

The extreme warmth associated with the mass extinction at the Permian-Triassic boundary was likely produced by a rapid build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the eruption and emplacement of the Siberian Traps. In comparison to another hyperthermal event, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, the Permian-Triassic event, while leaving a similar carbon isotope record, likely had larger amounts of CO2 emitted and did not follow the expected time scale of climate recovery. The quantities and rates of CO2 emission likely exhausted the capacity of the long-term climate regulator associated with silicate weathering. Failure was enhanced by slow rock uplift and high continentality associated with the supercontinental phase of global tectonics at the time of the Siberian Traps eruption.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Warm plankton soup and red herrings: calcareous nannoplankton cellular communities and the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

Past global warming events such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM-56 Ma) are attributed to the release of vast amounts of carbon into the ocean, atmosphere and biosphere with recovery ascribed to a combination of silicate weathering and organic carbon burial. The phytoplanktonic nannoplankton are major contributors of organic and inorganic carbon but their role in this recovery process remains poorly understood and complicated by their contribution to marine calcification. Biocalcification is implicated not only in long-term carbon burial but also both short-term positive and negative climatic feedbacks associated with seawater buffering and responses to ocean acidification. Here, we use exceptional records of preserved fossil coccospheres to reconstruct cell size distribution, biomass production (particulate organic carbon, POC) and (particulate) inorganic carbon (PIC) yields of three contrasting nannoplankton communities (Bass River-outer shelf, Maud Rise-uppermost bathyal, Shatsky Rise-open ocean) through the PETM onset and recovery. Each of the sites shows contrasting community responses across the PETM as a function of their taxic composition and total community biomass. Our results indicate that nannoplankton PIC:POC had no role in short-term climate feedback and, as such, their importance as a source of CO₂ to the environment is a red herring. It is nevertheless likely that shifts to greater numbers of smaller cells at the shelf site in particular led to greater carbon transfer efficiency, and that nannoplankton productivity and export across the shelves had a significant modulating effect on carbon sequestration during the PETM recovery.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Greenhouse- and orbital-forced climate extremes during the early Eocene

The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a significant global warming event in Earth's deep past (56 Mya). The warming across the PETM boundary was driven by a rapid rise in greenhouse gases. The event also coincided with a time of maximum insolation in Northern Hemisphere summer. There is increased evidence that the mean warming was accompanied by enhanced seasonality and/or extremes in precipitation (and flooding) and drought. A high horizontal resolution (50 km) global climate model is used to explore changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature, precipitation, evaporation minus precipitation and river run-off for regions where proxy data are available. Comparison for the regions indicates the model accurately simulates the observed changes in these climatic characteristics with North American interior warming and drying, and warming and increased river run-off at other regions. The addition of maximum insolation in Northern Hemisphere summer leads to a drier North America, but wetter conditions at most other locations. Long-range transport of atmospheric moisture plays a critical role in explaining regional changes in the water cycle. Such high-frequency variations in precipitation might also help explain discrepancies or misinterpretation of some climate proxies from the same locations, especially where sampling is coarse, i.e. at or greater than the frequency of precession.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Capturing the global signature of surface ocean acidification during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

Geologically abrupt carbon perturbations such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, approx. 56 Ma) are the closest geological points of comparison to current anthropogenic carbon emissions. Associated with the rapid carbon release during this event are profound environmental changes in the oceans including warming, deoxygenation and acidification. To evaluate the global extent of surface ocean acidification during the PETM, we present a compilation of new and published surface ocean carbonate chemistry and pH reconstructions from various palaeoceanographic settings. We use boron to calcium ratios (B/Ca) and boron isotopes (δ¹¹B) in surface- and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera to reconstruct ocean carbonate chemistry and pH. Our records exhibit a B/Ca reduction of 30-40% and a δ¹¹B decline of 1.0-1.2‰ coeval with the carbon isotope excursion. The tight coupling between boron proxies and carbon isotope records is consistent with the interpretation that oceanic absorption of the carbon released at the onset of the PETM resulted in widespread surface ocean acidification. The remarkable similarity among records from different ocean regions suggests that the degree of ocean carbonate change was globally near uniform. We attribute the global extent of surface ocean acidification to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels during the main phase of the PETM.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Little lasting impact of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum on shallow marine molluscan faunas

Global warming, acidification, and oxygen stress at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) are associated with severe extinction in the deep sea and major biogeographic and ecologic changes in planktonic and terrestrial ecosystems, yet impacts on shallow marine macrofaunas are obscured by the incompleteness of shelf sections. We analyze mollusk assemblages bracketing (but not including) the PETM and find few notable lasting impacts on diversity, turnover, functional ecology, body size, or life history of important clades. Infaunal and chemosymbiotic taxa become more common, and body size and abundance drop in one clade, consistent with hypoxia-driven selection, but within-clade changes are not generalizable across taxa. While an unrecorded transient response is still possible, the long-term evolutionary impact is minimal. Adaptation to already-warm conditions and slow release of CO₂ relative to the time scale of ocean mixing likely buffered the impact of PETM climate change on shelf faunas.

An early Cambrian greenhouse climate

The oceans of the early Cambrian (~541 to 509 million years ago) were the setting for a marked diversification of animal life. However, sea temperatures-a key component of the early Cambrian marine environment-remain unconstrained, in part because of a substantial time gap in the stable oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) record before the evolution of euconodonts. We show that previously overlooked sources of fossil biogenic phosphate have the potential to fill this gap. Pristine phosphatic microfossils from the Comley Limestones, UK, yield a robust δ¹⁸O signature, suggesting sea surface temperatures of 20° to 25°C at high southern paleolatitudes (~65°S to 70°S) between ~514 and 509 million years ago. These sea temperatures are consistent with the distribution of coeval evaporite and calcrete deposits, peak continental weathering rates, and also our climate model simulations for this interval. Our results support an early Cambrian greenhouse climate comparable to those of the late Mesozoic and early Cenozoic, offering a framework for exploring the interplay between biotic and environmental controls on Cambrian animal diversification.

Light from dark: A relictual troglobite reveals a broader ancestral distribution for kimulid harvestmen (Opiliones: Laniatores: Kimulidae) in South America

A new troglobitic harvestman, Relictopiolus galadriel gen. nov et sp. nov., is described from Olhos d'Água cave, Itacarambi, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Morphological characters, including male genitalia and exomorphology, suggest that this species belongs to the family Kimulidae, and it appears to share the greatest similarities with Tegipiolus pachypus. Bayesian inference analyses of a molecular dataset strongly support the inclusion of this species in Kimulidae and confirm the hypothesized sister-group relationship between R. galadriel and T. pachypus. A time calibrated phylogeny indicates that these sister-taxa diverged from a common ancestor approximately 40 Mya, during the Paleogene. The current range of Kimulidae illustrates a remarkable disjunct distribution, and leads us to hypothesize that the ancestral distribution of Kimulidae was once much more widespread across eastern Brazil. This may be attributed to the Eocene radiation associated with the warming (and humidifying) events in the Cenozoic when the best conditions for evergreen tropical vegetation in South America were established and followed by the extinction of kimulid epigean populations together with the retraction of rain forests during the Oligocene to Miocene cooling. The discovery of this relictual troglobite indicates that the Olhos d'Água cave was a stable refugium for this ancient lineage of kimulids and acted as a "museum" of biodiversity. Our findings, considered collectively with the diverse troglofauna of the Olhos d'Água cave, highlight it as one of the most important hotspots of troglobite diversity and endemism in the Neotropics. Given the ecological stresses on this habitat, the cavernicolous fauna are at risk of extinction and we emphasize the urgent need for appropriate conservation actions. Finally, we propose the transfer of Acanthominua, Euminua, Euminuoides and Pseudominua from Kimulidae to Zalmoxidae, resulting in two new synonymies and 13 new combinations.

Rapid and recent diversification patterns in Anseriformes birds: Inferred from molecular phylogeny and diversification analyses

The Anseriformes is a well-known and widely distributed bird order, with more than 150 species in the world. This paper aims to revise the classification, determine the phylogenetic relationships and diversification patterns in Anseriformes by exploring the Cyt b, ND2, COI genes and the complete mitochondrial genomes (mito-genomes). Molecular phylogeny and genetic distance analyses suggest that the Dendrocygna species should be considered as an independent family, Dendrocygnidae, rather than a member of Anatidae. Molecular timescale analyses suggests that the ancestral diversification occurred during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (58 ~ 50 Ma). Furthermore, diversification analyses showed that, after a long period of constant diversification, the median initial speciation rate was accelerated three times, and finally increased to approximately 0.3 sp/My. In the present study, both molecular phylogeny and diversification analyses results support that Anseriformes birds underwent rapid and recent diversification in their evolutionary history, especially in modern ducks, which show extreme diversification during the Plio-Pleistocene (~ 5.3 Ma). Therefore, our study support that the Plio-Pleistocene climate fluctuations are likely to have played a significant role in promoting the recent diversification for Anseriformes.

A probabilistic assessment of the rapidity of PETM onset

Knowledge of the onset duration of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum-the largest known greenhouse-gas-driven global warming event of the Cenozoic-is central to drawing inferences for future climate change. Single-foraminifera measurements of the associated carbon isotope excursion from Maud Rise (South Atlantic Ocean) are controversial, as they seem to indicate geologically instantaneous carbon release and anomalously long ocean mixing. Here, we fundamentally reinterpret this record and extract the likely PETM onset duration. First, we employ an Earth system model to illustrate how the response of ocean circulation to warming does not support the interpretation of instantaneous carbon release. Instead, we use a novel sediment-mixing model to show how changes in the relative population sizes of calcareous plankton, combined with sediment mixing, can explain the observations. Furthermore, for any plausible PETM onset duration and sampling methodology, we place a probability on not sampling an intermediate, syn-excursion isotopic value. Assuming mixed-layer carbonate production continued at Maud Rise, we deduce the PETM onset was likely <5 kyr.Single-foraminifera measurements of the PETM carbon isotope excursion from Maud Rise have been interpreted as indicating geologically instantaneous carbon release. Here, the authors explain these records using an Earth system model and a sediment-mixing model and extract the likely PETM onset duration.

Extreme warmth and heat-stressed plankton in the tropics during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

Global ocean temperatures rapidly warmed by ~5°C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 million years ago). Extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) met or exceeded modern subtropical values. With these warm extratropical temperatures, climate models predict tropical SSTs >35°C-near upper physiological temperature limits for many organisms. However, few data are available to test these projected extreme tropical temperatures or their potential lethality. We identify the PETM in a shallow marine sedimentary section deposited in Nigeria. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios and the molecular proxy [Formula: see text], latest Paleocene equatorial SSTs were ~33°C, and [Formula: see text] indicates that SSTs rose to >36°C during the PETM. This confirms model predictions on the magnitude of polar amplification and refutes the tropical thermostat theory. We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming.

Temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a remarkable climatic and environmental event that occurred 56 Ma ago and has importance for understanding possible future climate change. The Paleocene-Eocene transition is marked by a rapid temperature rise contemporaneous with a large negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE). Both the temperature and the isotopic excursion are well-documented by terrestrial and marine proxies. The CIE was the result of a massive release of carbon into the atmosphere. However, the carbon source and quantities of CO2 and CH4 greenhouse gases that contributed to global warming are poorly constrained and highly debated. Here we combine an established oxygen isotope paleothermometer with a newly developed triple oxygen isotope paleo-CO2 barometer. We attempt to quantify the source of greenhouse gases released during the Paleocene-Eocene transition by analyzing bioapatite of terrestrial mammals. Our results are consistent with previous estimates of PETM temperature change and suggest that not only CO2 but also massive release of seabed methane was the driver for CIE and PETM.

Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record

Recently observed rates of environmental change are typically much higher than those inferred for the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of ancient changes were often substantially greater than those established in recent history. The most pertinent disparity, however, between recent and geological rates is the timespan over which the rates are measured, which typically differ by several orders of magnitude. Here we show that rates of marked temperature changes inferred from proxy data in Earth history scale with measurement timespan as an approximate power law across nearly six orders of magnitude (10² to >10⁷ years). This scaling reveals how climate signals measured in the geological record alias transient variability, even during the most pronounced climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic. Our findings indicate that the true attainable pace of climate change on timescales of greatest societal relevance is underestimated in geological archives.

Recently observed rates of climatic change are typically much higher than those inferred for the geological past. Here, the authors show that maximum rates of climate change inferred from geological data are likely erroneously underestimated.

The Sun-Earth connect 3: lessons from the periodicities of deep time influencing sea-level change and marine extinctions in the geological record

A number of papers since Rampino and Stothers published in Science 1984 have reported common periodicities in a wide range of climate, geomagnetic, tectonic and biological proxies, including marine extinctions. Single taper and multitaper spectral analysis of marine fluctuations between the Late Cretaceous and the Miocene replicates a number of the published harmonics. Whereas these common periodicities have been argued to have a galactic origin, this paper presents an alternative fractal model based on large scale fluctuations of the magnetic field of the Sun. The fluctuations follow a self-similar matrix of periodicities and the solutions of the differential equation allow for models to be constructed predicting extreme events for solar emissions. A comparison to major Phanerozoic extinction, climate and geomagnetic events, captured in the geological record, show a striking loop symmetry summarised in major 66 Ma irradiance and electromagnetic pulses from the Sun.

Biochemical adaptation to ocean acidification

The change in oceanic carbonate chemistry due to increased atmospheric PCO2 has caused pH to decline in marine surface waters, a phenomenon known as ocean acidification (OA). The effects of OA on organisms have been shown to be widespread among diverse taxa from a wide range of habitats. The majority of studies of organismal response to OA are in short-term exposures to future levels of PCO2. From such studies, much information has been gathered on plastic responses organisms may make in the future that are beneficial or harmful to fitness. Relatively few studies have examined whether organisms can adapt to negative-fitness consequences of plastic responses to OA. We outline major approaches that have been used to study the adaptive potential for organisms to OA, which include comparative studies and experimental evolution. Organisms that inhabit a range of pH environments (e.g. pH gradients at volcanic CO2 seeps or in upwelling zones) have great potential for studies that identify adaptive shifts that have occurred through evolution. Comparative studies have advanced our understanding of adaptation to OA by linking whole-organism responses with cellular mechanisms. Such optimization of function provides a link between genetic variation and adaptive evolution in tuning optimal function of rate-limiting cellular processes in different pH conditions. For example, in experimental evolution studies of organisms with short generation times (e.g. phytoplankton), hundreds of generations of growth under future conditions has resulted in fixed differences in gene expression related to acid–base regulation. However, biochemical mechanisms for adaptive responses to OA have yet to be fully characterized, and are likely to be more complex than simply changes in gene expression or protein modification. Finally, we present a hypothesis regarding an unexplored area for biochemical adaptation to ocean acidification. In this hypothesis, proteins and membranes exposed to the external environment, such as epithelial tissues, may be susceptible to changes in external pH. Such biochemical systems could be adapted to a reduced pH environment by adjustment of weak bonds in an analogous fashion to biochemical adaptation to temperature. Whether such biochemical adaptation to OA exists remains to be discovered.

Long-term legacy of massive carbon input to the Earth system: Anthropocene versus Eocene

Over the next few centuries, with unabated emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), a total of 5000 Pg C may enter the atmosphere, causing CO2 concentrations to rise to approximately 2000 ppmv, global temperature to warm by more than 8(°)C and surface ocean pH to decline by approximately 0.7 units. A carbon release of this magnitude is unprecedented during the past 56 million years-and the outcome accordingly difficult to predict. In this regard, the geological record may provide foresight to how the Earth system will respond in the future. Here, we discuss the long-term legacy of massive carbon release into the Earth's surface reservoirs, comparing the Anthropocene with a past analogue, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, approx. 56 Ma). We examine the natural processes and time scales of CO2 neutralization that determine the atmospheric lifetime of CO2 in response to carbon release. We compare the duration of carbon release during the Anthropocene versus PETM and the ensuing effects on ocean acidification and marine calcifying organisms. We also discuss the conundrum that the observed duration of the PETM appears to be much longer than predicted by models that use first-order assumptions. Finally, we comment on past and future mass extinctions and recovery times of biotic diversity.

The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections

Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow "Earth system" feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or "Charney" climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature.

Tropical forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO2: current knowledge and opportunities for future research

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ca) will undoubtedly affect the metabolism of tropical forests worldwide; however, critical aspects of how tropical forests will respond remain largely unknown. Here, we review the current state of knowledge about physiological and ecological responses, with the aim of providing a framework that can help to guide future experimental research. Modelling studies have indicated that elevated ca can potentially stimulate photosynthesis more in the tropics than at higher latitudes, because suppression of photorespiration by elevated ca increases with temperature. However, canopy leaves in tropical forests could also potentially reach a high temperature threshold under elevated ca that will moderate the rise in photosynthesis. Belowground responses, including fine root production, nutrient foraging and soil organic matter processing, will be especially important to the integrated ecosystem response to elevated ca. Water use efficiency will increase as ca rises, potentially impacting upon soil moisture status and nutrient availability. Recruitment may be differentially altered for some functional groups, potentially decreasing ecosystem carbon storage. Whole-forest CO2 enrichment experiments are urgently needed to test predictions of tropical forest functioning under elevated ca. Smaller scale experiments in the understorey and in gaps would also be informative, and could provide stepping stones towards stand-scale manipulations.

Large-scale phylogeny of chameleons suggests African origins and Eocene diversification

Oceanic dispersal has emerged as an important factor contributing to biogeographic patterns in numerous taxa. Chameleons are a clear example of this, as they are primarily found in Africa and Madagascar, but the age of the family is post-Gondwanan break-up. A Malagasy origin for the family has been suggested, yet this hypothesis has not been tested using modern biogeographic methods with a dated phylogeny. To examine competing hypotheses of African and Malagasy origins, we generated a dated phylogeny using between six and 13 genetic markers, for up to 174 taxa representing greater than 90 per cent of all named species. Using three different ancestral-state reconstruction methods (Bayesian and likelihood approaches), we show that the family most probably originated in Africa, with two separate oceanic dispersals to Madagascar during the Palaeocene and the Oligocene, when prevailing oceanic currents would have favoured eastward dispersal. Diversification of genus-level clades took place in the Eocene, and species-level diversification occurred primarily in the Oligocene. Plio-Pleistocene speciation is rare, resulting in a phylogeny dominated by palaeo-endemic species. We suggest that contraction and fragmentation of the Pan-African forest coupled to an increase in open habitats (savannah, grassland, heathland), since the Oligocene played a key role in diversification of this group through vicariance.

Surviving rapid climate change in the deep sea during the Paleogene hyperthermals

Predicting the impact of ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions on calcifying marine organisms is complex, owing to the synergy between direct changes (acidification) and indirect changes through climate change (e.g., warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation). Laboratory experiments, particularly on longer-lived organisms, tend to be too short to reveal the potential of organisms to acclimatize, adapt, or evolve and usually do not incorporate multiple stressors. We studied two examples of rapid carbon release in the geological record, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (∼53.2 Ma) and the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ∼55.5 Ma), the best analogs over the last 65 Ma for future ocean acidification related to high atmospheric CO2 levels. We use benthic foraminifers, which suffered severe extinction during the PETM, as a model group. Using synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy, we reconstruct the calcification response of survivor species and find, contrary to expectations, that calcification significantly increased during the PETM. In contrast, there was no significant response to the smaller Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, which was associated with a minor change in diversity only. These observations suggest that there is a response threshold for extinction and calcification response, while highlighting the utility of the geological record in helping constrain the sensitivity of biotic response to environmental change.

Phylogenetic analysis of Thecosomata Blainville, 1824 (holoplanktonic opisthobranchia) using morphological and molecular data

Thecosomata is a marine zooplankton group, which played an important role in the carbonate cycle in oceans due to their shell composition. So far, there is important discrepancy between the previous morphological-based taxonomies, and subsequently the evolutionary history of Thecosomata. In this study, the remarkable planktonic sampling of TARA Oceans expedition associated with a set of various other missions allowed us to assess the phylogenetic relationships of Thecosomata using morphological and molecular data (28 S and COI genes). The two gene trees showed incongruities (e.g. Hyalocylis, Cavolinia), and high congruence between morphological and 28S trees (e.g. monophyly of Euthecosomata). The monophyly of straight shell species led us to reviving the Orthoconcha, and the split of Limacinidae led us to the revival of Embolus inflata replacing Limacina inflata. The results also jeopardized the Euthecosomata families that are based on plesiomorphic character state as in the case for Creseidae which was not a monophyletic group. Divergence times were also estimated, and suggested that the evolutionary history of Thecosomata was characterized by four major diversifying events. By bringing the knowledge of palaeontology, we propose a new evolutionary scenario for which macro-evolution implying morphological innovations were rhythmed by climatic changes and associated species turn-over that spread from the Eocene to Miocene, and were shaped principally by predation and shell buoyancy.

Evolution and biogeography of the slipper orchids: Eocene vicariance of the conduplicate genera in the Old and New World Tropics

Intercontinental disjunctions between tropical regions, which harbor two-thirds of the flowering plants, have drawn great interest from biologists and biogeographers. Most previous studies on these distribution patterns focused on woody plants, and paid little attention to herbs. The Orchidaceae is one of the largest families of angiosperms, with a herbaceous habit and a high species diversity in the Tropics. Here we investigate the evolutionary and biogeographical history of the slipper orchids, which represents a monophyletic subfamily (Cypripedioideae) of the orchid family and comprises five genera that are disjunctly distributed in tropical to temperate regions. A relatively well-resolved and highly supported phylogeny of slipper orchids was reconstructed based on sequence analyses of six maternally inherited chloroplast and two low-copy nuclear genes (LFY and ACO). We found that the genus Cypripedium with a wide distribution in the northern temperate and subtropical zones diverged first, followed by Selenipedium endemic to South America, and finally conduplicate-leaved genera in the Tropics. Mexipedium and Phragmipedium from the neotropics are most closely related, and form a clade sister to Paphiopedilum from tropical Asia. According to molecular clock estimates, the genus Selenipedium originated in Palaeocene, while the most recent common ancestor of conduplicate-leaved slipper orchids could be dated back to the Eocene. Ancestral area reconstruction indicates that vicariance is responsible for the disjunct distribution of conduplicate slipper orchids in palaeotropical and neotropical regions. Our study sheds some light on mechanisms underlying generic and species diversification in the orchid family and tropical disjunctions of herbaceous plant groups. In addition, we suggest that the biogeographical study should sample both regional endemics and their widespread relatives.

Greenhouse gases in the Earth system: a palaeoclimate perspective

While the trends in greenhouse gas concentrations in recent decades are clear, their significance is only revealed when viewed in the context of a longer time period. Fortunately, the air bubbles in polar ice cores provide an unusually direct method of determining the concentrations of stable gases over a period of (so far) 800,000 years. Measurements on different cores with varying characteristics, as well as an overlap of ice-core and atmospheric measurements covering the same time period, show that the ice-core record provides a faithful record of changing atmospheric composition. The mixing ratio of CO(2) is now 30 per cent higher than any value observed in the ice-core record, while methane is more than double any observed value; the rate of change also appears extraordinary compared with natural changes. Before the period when anthropogenic changes have dominated, there are very interesting natural changes in concentration, particularly across glacial/interglacial cycles, and these can be used to understand feedbacks in the Earth system. The phasing of changes in temperature and CO(2) across glacial/interglacial transitions is consistent with the idea that CO(2) acts as an important amplifier of climate changes in the natural system. Even larger changes are inferred to have occurred in periods earlier than the ice cores cover, and these events might be used to constrain assessments of the way the Earth could respond to higher than present concentrations of CO(2), and to a large release of carbon: however, more certainty about CO(2) concentrations beyond the time period covered by ice cores is needed before such constraints can be fully realized.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO(2) forcing--whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate--or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO(2) was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO(2)) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO(2) concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO(2) thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Effects of rapid global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary on neotropical vegetation

Temperatures in tropical regions are estimated to have increased by 3° to 5°C, compared with Late Paleocene values, during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56.3 million years ago) event. We investigated the tropical forest response to this rapid warming by evaluating the palynological record of three stratigraphic sections in eastern Colombia and western Venezuela. We observed a rapid and distinct increase in plant diversity and origination rates, with a set of new taxa, mostly angiosperms, added to the existing stock of low-diversity Paleocene flora. There is no evidence for enhanced aridity in the northern Neotropics. The tropical rainforest was able to persist under elevated temperatures and high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, in contrast to speculations that tropical ecosystems were severely compromised by heat stress.

Relation of Phanerozoic stable isotope excursions to climate, bacterial metabolism, and major extinctions

Conspicuous global stable carbon isotope excursions that are recorded in marine sedimentary rocks of Phanerozoic age and were associated with major extinctions have generally paralleled global stable oxygen isotope excursions. All of these phenomena are therefore likely to share a common origin through global climate change. Exceptional patterns for carbon isotope excursions resulted from massive carbon burial during warm intervals of widespread marine anoxic conditions. The many carbon isotope excursions that parallel those for oxygen isotopes can to a large degree be accounted for by the Q10 pattern of respiration for bacteria: As temperature changed along continental margins, where ∼90% of marine carbon burial occurs today, rates of remineralization of isotopically light carbon must have changed exponentially. This would have reduced organic carbon burial during global warming and increased it during global cooling. Also contributing to the δ(13)C excursions have been release and uptake of methane by clathrates, the positive correlation between temperature and degree of fractionation of carbon isotopes by phytoplankton at temperatures below ∼15°, and increased phytoplankton productivity during "icehouse" conditions. The Q10 pattern for bacteria and climate-related changes in clathrate volume represent positive feedbacks for climate change.