New Strategies for the Elimination of Polio from India

Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024

Continued investment in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission, economics, and risks leads to their use in support of polio endgame strategy development and risk management policies. This study complements an earlier review covering the period 2000-2019 and discusses the evolution of studies published since 2020 by modeling groups supported by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners and others. We systematically review modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2020-2024.25 that focus on poliovirus transmission and health economic analyses. In spite of the long-anticipated end of poliovirus transmission and the GPEI sunset, which would lead to the end of its support for modeling, we find that the number of modeling groups supported by GPEI partners doubled and the rate of their publications increased. Modeling continued to play a role in supporting GPEI and national/regional policies, but changes in polio eradication governance, decentralized management and decision-making, and increased heterogeneity in modeling approaches and findings decreased the overall impact of modeling results. Meanwhile, the failure of the 2016 globally coordinated cessation of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine use for preventive immunization and the introduction of new poliovirus vaccines and formulation, increased the complexity and uncertainty of poliovirus transmission and economic models and policy recommendations during this time.

Effectiveness of poliovirus vaccines against circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis in Nigeria between 2017 and 2022: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria experienced continuous transmission of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2), with 526 cases of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis detected in total and approximately 180 million doses of monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) and 450 million doses of novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2) delivered in outbreak response campaigns. Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) was introduced into routine immunisation in 2015, with a second dose added in 2021. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis and compare nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV.

METHODS

In this retrospective case-control study, we used acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance data in Nigeria from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022, using age-matched, onset-matched, and location-matched cVDPV2-negative AFP cases as test-negative controls. We also did a parallel prospective study from March, 2021, using age-matched community controls from the same settlement as the cases. We included children born after May, 2016, younger than 60 months, for whom polio immunisation history (doses of OPV from campaigns and IPV) was reported. We estimated the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis using conditional logistic regression and compared nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV.

FINDINGS

In the retrospective case-control study, we identified 509 cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases in Nigeria with case verification and paralysis onset between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2022. Of these, 82 children were excluded for not meeting inclusion criteria, and 363 (85%) of 427 eligible cases were matched to 1303 test-negative controls. Cases reported fewer OPV and IPV doses than test-negative controls (mean number of OPV doses 5·9 [SD 4·2] in cases vs 6·7 [4·3] in controls; one or more IPV doses reported in 95 [26%] of 363 cases vs 513 [39%] of 1303 controls). We found low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (12%, 95% CI -2 to 25) and mOPV2 (17%, 3 to 29), but no significant difference between the two vaccines (p=0·67). The estimated effectiveness of one IPV dose was 43% (23 to 58). In the prospective study, 181 (46%) of 392 eligible cases were matched to 1557 community controls. Using community controls, we found a high effectiveness of IPV (89%, 95% CI 83 to 93, for one dose), a low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (-23%, -45 to -5) and mOPV2 (1%, -23 to 20), and no significant difference between the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 and mOPV2 (p=0·12).

INTERPRETATION

We found no significant difference in estimated effectiveness of the two oral vaccines, supporting the recommendation that the more genetically stable nOPV2 should be preferred in cVDPV2 outbreak response. Our findings highlight the role of IPV and the necessity of strengthening routine immunisation, the primary route through which IPV is delivered.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UK Medical Research Council.

Evolution of global polio eradication strategies: targets, vaccines, and supplemental immunization activities (SIAs)

BACKGROUND

Despite multiple revisions of targets and timelines in polio eradication plans since 1988, including changes in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) that increase immunity above routine immunization (RI) coverage, poliovirus transmission continues as of 2024.

METHODS

We reviewed polio eradication plans and Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) annual reports and budgets to characterize key phases of polio eradication, the evolution of poliovirus vaccines, and the role of SIAs. We used polio epidemiology to provide context for successes and failures and updated prior modeling to show the contribution of SIAs in achieving and maintaining low polio incidence compared to expected incidence for the counterfactual of RI only.

RESULTS

We identified multiple phases of polio eradication that included shifts in targets and timelines and the introduction of different poliovirus vaccines, which influenced polio epidemiology. Notable shifts occurred in GPEI investments in SIAs since 2001, particularly since 2016. Modeling results suggest that SIAs play(ed) a key role in increasing (and maintaining) high population immunity to levels required to eradicate poliovirus transmission globally.

CONCLUSIONS

Shifts in polio eradication strategy and poliovirus vaccine usage in SIAs provide important context for understanding polio epidemiology, delayed achievement of polio eradication milestones, and complexity of the polio endgame.

Does IPV Boost Intestinal Immunity among Children under Five Years of Age? An Experience from Pakistan

The oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) has been the mainstay of polio eradication, especially in low-income countries, and its use has eliminated wild poliovirus type 2. However, the inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) is safer than OPV, as IPV protects against paralytic poliomyelitis without producing adverse reactions. The present study compared mucosal and humoral responses to poliovirus vaccines administered to previously OPV-immunized children to assess the immunity gap in children in areas of high poliovirus transmission. A cluster-randomized trial was implemented in three high-risk districts of Pakistan-Karachi, Kashmore, and Bajaur-from June 2013 to May 2014. This trial was community-oriented and included three arms, focusing on healthy children below five years of age. The study involved the randomization of 387 clusters, of which 360 were included in the final analysis. The control arm (A) received the routine polio program bivalent poliovirus vaccine (bOPV). The second arm (B) received additional interventions, including health camps providing routine vaccinations and preventive maternal and child health services. In addition to the interventions in arm B, the third arm (C) was also provided with IPV. Blood and stool samples were gathered from children to evaluate humoral and intestinal immunity. The highest levels of poliovirus type 1 serum antibodies were observed in Group C (IPV + OPV). The titers for poliovirus type 2 (P2) and poliovirus type 3 (P3) were noticeably higher in those who had received a routine OPV dose than in those who had not across all study groups and visits. Providing an IPV booster after at least two OPV doses could potentially fill immunity gaps in regions where OPV does not show high efficacy. However, IPV only marginally enhances humoral immunity and fails to offer intestinal immunity, which is critical to stop the infection and spread of live poliovirus in populations that have not been exposed before.

Lessons from Vaccine-Related Poliovirus in Israel, UK and USA

Genetic variants of vaccine poliovirus type 2, imported from an unknown source, were detected in waste waters in Jerusalem, London and New York in early 2022. Wild poliovirus type 2 was globally eradicated in 1999, but vaccine virus type 2 continued for 16 more years; routine use of the vaccine was discontinued in 2016 and reintroduced occasionally on purpose. As an unintended consequence, type 2 vaccine virus variants (circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses, cVDPVs) that mimic wild viruses' contagiousness and neurovirulence, have been emerging and spreading. To illustrate, in just the past four years (2018-2021), 2296 children developed cVDPV polio in 35 low-income countries. Many assume that virus transmission is via the faecal-oral route. Sustained virus transmission was documented in London and New York, in spite of high standards of sanitation and hygiene. Here, virus transmission cannot be attributed to faecal contamination of food or drinking water (for faecal-oral transmission). Hence, contagious transmission can only be explained by inhalation of droplets/aerosol containing virus shed in pharyngeal fluids (respiratory transmission), as was the classical teaching of polio epidemiology. If transmission efficiency of VDPV is via the respiratory route where hygiene is good, it stands to reason that it is the same case in countries with poor hygiene, since poor hygiene cannot be a barrier against respiratory transmission. By extrapolation, the extreme transmission efficiency of wild polioviruses must also have been due to their ability to exploit respiratory route transmission. These lessons have implications for global polio eradication. It was as a result of assuming faecal-oral transmission that eradication was attempted with live attenuated oral polio vaccine (OPV), ignoring its safety problems and very low efficacy in low-income countries. Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) is completely safe and highly efficacious in protecting children against polio, with just three routine doses. Protecting all children from polio must be the interim goal of eradication, until poliovirus circulation dies out under sustained immunisation pressure. OPV should be discontinued under cover of immunity induced by IPV to stop the emergence of new lineages of VDPVs, not only type 2, but also types 1 and 3, to expedite the completion of polio eradication.

Optimal control of networked reaction-diffusion systems

Patterns in nature are fascinating both aesthetically and scientifically. Alan Turing's celebrated reaction-diffusion model of pattern formation from the 1950s has been extended to an astounding diversity of applications: from cancer medicine, via nanoparticle fabrication, to computer architecture. Recently, several authors have studied pattern formation in underlying networks, but thus far, controlling a reaction-diffusion system in a network to obtain a particular pattern has remained elusive. We present a solution to this problem in the form of an analytical framework and numerical algorithm for optimal control of Turing patterns in networks. We demonstrate our method's effectiveness and discuss factors that affect its performance. We also pave the way for multidisciplinary applications of our framework beyond reaction-diffusion models.

Optimal control of pattern formations for an SIR reaction-diffusion epidemic model

Patterns arising from the reaction-diffusion epidemic model provide insightful aspects into the transmission of infectious diseases. For a classic SIR reaction-diffusion epidemic model, we review its Turing pattern formations with different transmission rates. A quantitative indicator, "normal serious prevalent area (NSPA)", is introduced to characterize the relationship between patterns and the extent of the epidemic. The extent of epidemic is positively correlated to NSPA. To effectively reduce NSPA of patterns under the large transmission rates, taken removed (recovery or isolation) rate as a control parameter, we consider the mathematical formulation and numerical solution of an optimal control problem for the SIR reaction-diffusion model. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in terms of control effect, control precision and control cost.

Modelling the spread of serotype-2 vaccine derived-poliovirus outbreak in Pakistan and Afghanistan to inform outbreak control strategies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Since July 2019, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been facing an outbreak of serotype-2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) in addition to continued transmission of serotype-1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) and SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. Understanding the risks of cVDPV2 transmission due to pause of global vaccination efforts and the impact of potential vaccination response strategies in the current context of COVID-19 mitigation measures is critical.

Methods

We developed a stochastic, geographically structured mathematical model of cVDPV2 transmission which captures both mucosal and humoral immunity separately and allows for reversion of serotype-2 oral polio vaccine (OPV2) virus to cVDPV2 following vaccine administration. The model includes geographic heterogeneities in vaccination coverage, population immunity and population movement. The model was fitted to historic cVDPV2 cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan between January 2010-April 2016 and July 2019-March 2020 using iterated particle filtering. The model was used to simulate spread of cVDPV2 infection from July 2019 to explore impact of various proposed vaccination responses on stopping transmission and risk of spread of reverted Sabin-2 under varying assumptions of impacts from COVID-19 lockdown measures on movement patterns as well as declines in vaccination coverage.

Results

Simulated monthly incidence of cVDPV2 from the best-fit model demonstrated general spatio-temporal alignment with observed cVDPV2 cases. The model predicted substantial spread of cVDPV2 infection, with widespread transmission through 2020 in the absence of any vaccination activities. Vaccination responses were predicted to substantially reduce transmission and case burden, with a greater impact from earlier responses and those with larger geographic scope. While the greatest risk of seeding reverted Sabin-2 was predicted in areas targeted with OPV2, subsequent spread was greatest in areas with no or delayed response. The proposed vaccination strategy demonstrated ability to stop the cVDPV2 outbreak (with low risk of reverted Sabin-2 spread) by February 2021.

Conclusion

Outbreak response vaccination campaigns against cVDPV2 will be challenging throughout the COVID-19 pandemic but must be implemented urgently when feasible to stop transmission of cVDPV2.

Polio eradication at the crossroads

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative, launched in 1988 with anticipated completion by 2000, has yet to reach its ultimate goal. The recent surge of polio cases urgently calls for a reassessment of the programme's current strategy and a new design for the way forward. We propose that the sustainable protection of the world population against paralytic polio cannot be achieved simply by stopping the circulation of poliovirus but must also include maintaining high rates of population immunity indefinitely, which can be created and maintained by implementing global immunisation programmes with improved poliovirus vaccines that create comprehensive immunity without spawning new virulent viruses. The proposed new strategic goal of eradicating the disease rather than the virus would lead to a sustainable eradication of poliomyelitis while simultaneously promoting immunisation against other vaccine-preventable diseases.

Vaccines are not one size fits all, just like medications: rotavirus vaccine study

The current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has shown us once again how important vaccination is in controlling and preventing the spread of deadly diseases. Vaccinations are one of the most tried and tested public health measures aimed at the prevention and eventual eradication of various diseases. Many debilitating diseases like polio have been eradicated in countries like India due to effective vaccination strategies. Just like with any other public health initiative, there do exist various challenges for vaccination. Efficacy and correlate of protection studies are crucial in determining which vaccine works best. The rotavirus vaccine (ROTAVAC; Bharat Biotech International Ltd., Hyderabad, India) is one such example where efficacy seen in one geographical and ethnic population is not replicated elsewhere. This has prompted various researchers and pharmaceutical companies to think about customizing vaccines to the individual needs of a particular geographic and ethnic group. In this brief communication, we look at the rotavirus vaccination story and see how it laid down the idea for customized vaccination development and what the future of vaccine development looks like.

Disease Surveillance Investments and Administration: Limits to Information Value in Pakistan Polio Eradication

In Pakistan, annual poliovirus investment decisions drive quantities of supplemental immunization campaigns districts receive. In this article, we assess whether increased spending on poliovirus surveillance is associated with greater likelihood of correctly identifying districts at high risk of polio with assignment of an elevated "risk ranking." We reviewed programmatic documents from Pakistan for the period from 2012-2017, recording whether districts had been classified as "high risk" or "low risk" in each year. Through document review, we developed a decision tree to describe the ranking decisions. Then, integrating data from the World Health Organization and Global Polio Eradication Initiative, we constructed a Bayesian decision network reflecting investments in polio surveillance and immunization campaigns, surveillance metrics, disease incidence, immunization rates, and occurrence of polio cases. We test these factors for statistical association with the outcome of interest-a change in risk rank between the beginning and the end of the one-year time period. We simulate different spending scenarios and predict their impact on district risk ranking in future time periods. We find that per district spending increases are associated with increased identification of cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). However, the low specificity of AFP investment and the largely invariant ranking of district risk means that even large increases in surveillance spending are unlikely to promote major changes in risk rankings at the current stage of the Pakistan polio eradication campaign.

Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication

INTRODUCTION

Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame.

AREAS COVERED

This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations.

EXPERT OPINION

Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.

Immune predictors of oral poliovirus vaccine immunogenicity among infants in South India

Identification of the causes of poor oral vaccine immunogenicity in low-income countries might lead to more effective vaccines. We measured mucosal and systemic immune parameters at the time of vaccination with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 292 Indian infants aged 6–11 months, including plasma cytokines, leukocyte counts, fecal biomarkers of environmental enteropathy and peripheral blood T-cell phenotype, focused on gut-homing regulatory CD4+ populations. We did not find a distinct immune phenotype associated with OPV immunogenicity, although viral pathogens were more prevalent in stool at the time of immunization among infants who failed to seroconvert (63.9% vs. 45.6%, p = 0.002). Using a machine-learning approach, we could predict seroconversion a priori using immune parameters and infection status with a median 58% accuracy (cross-validation IQR: 50–69%) compared with 50% expected by chance. Better identification of immune predictors of OPV immunogenicity is likely to require sampling of mucosal tissue and improved oral poliovirus infection models.

Cross-diffusion-induced patterns in an SIR epidemic model on complex networks

Infectious diseases are a major threat to global health. Spatial patterns revealed by epidemic models governed by reaction-diffusion systems can serve as a potential trend indicator of disease spread; thus, they have received wide attention. To characterize important features of disease spread, there are two important factors that cannot be ignored in the reaction-diffusion systems. One is that a susceptible individual has an ability to recognize the infected ones and keep away from them. The other is that populations are usually organized as networks instead of being continuously distributed in space. Consequently, it is essential to study patterns generated by epidemic models with self- and cross-diffusion on complex networks. Here, with the help of a linear analysis method, we study Turing instability induced by cross-diffusion for a network organized SIR epidemic model and explore Turing patterns on several different networks. Furthermore, the influences of cross-diffusion and network structure on patterns are also investigated.

Multi-scale dynamics of infectious diseases

To address the challenge of multiscale dynamics of infectious diseases, the Mathematical Biosciences Institute organized a workshop at The Ohio State University to bring together scientists from a variety of disciplines to share expertise gained through looking at infectious diseases across different scales. The researchers at the workshop, held in April 2018, were specifically looking at three model systems: foot-and-mouth disease, vector-borne diseases and enteric diseases. Although every multiscale model must be necessarily derived from a multiscale system, not every multiscale system has to lead to multiscale models. These three model systems seem to have produced a variety of both multiscale and integrated single-scale mechanistic models that have developed their own strengths and particular challenges. Here, we present papers from some of the workshop participants to show the breadth of the field.

Sequential inactivated (IPV) and live oral (OPV) poliovirus vaccines for preventing poliomyelitis

BACKGROUND

Poliomyelitis mainly affects unvaccinated children under five years of age, causing irreversible paralysis or even death. The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live attenuated virus, which can, in rare cases, cause a paralysis known as vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP), and also vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) due to acquired neurovirulence after prolonged duration of replication. The incidence of poliomyelitis caused by wild polio virus (WPV) has declined dramatically since the introduction of OPV and later the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), however, the cases of paralysis linked to the OPV are currently more frequent than those related to the WPV. Therefore, in 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended at least one IPV dose preceding routine immunisation with OPV to reduce VAPPs and VDPVs until polio could be eradicated.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness, safety, and immunogenicity of sequential IPV-OPV immunisation schemes compared to either OPV or IPV alone.

SEARCH METHODS

In May 2019 we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, 14 other databases, three trials registers and reports of adverse effects on four web sites. We also searched the references of identified studies, relevant reviews and contacted authors to identify additional references.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, controlled before-after studies, nationwide uncontrolled before-after studies (UBAs), interrupted time series (ITS) and controlled ITS comparing sequential IPV-OPV schedules (one or more IPV doses followed by one or more OPV doses) with IPV alone, OPV alone or non-sequential IPV-OPV combinations.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 21 studies: 16 RCTs involving 6407 healthy infants (age range 96 to 975 days, mean 382 days), one ITS with 28,330 infants and four nationwide studies (two ITS, two UBA). Ten RCTs were conducted in high-income countries; five in the USA, two in the UK, and one each in Chile, Israel, and Oman. The remaining six RCTs were conducted in middle-income countries; China, Bangladesh, Guatemala, India, and Thailand. We rated all included RCTs at low or unclear risk of bias for randomisation domains, most at high or unclear risk of attrition bias, and half at high or unclear risk for conflict of interests. Almost all RCTs were at low risk for the remaining domains. ITSs and UBAs were mainly considered at low risk of bias for most domains. IPV-OPV versus OPV It is uncertain if an IPV followed by OPV schedule is better than OPV alone at reducing the number of WPV cases (very low-certainty evidence); however, it may reduce VAPP cases by 54% to 100% (three nationwide studies; low-certainty evidence). There is little or no difference in vaccination coverage between IPV-OPV and OPV-only schedules (risk ratio (RR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 1.06; 1 ITS study; low-certainty evidence). Similarly, there is little or no difference between the two schedule types for the number of serious adverse events (SAEs) (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.70; 4 studies, 1948 participants; low-certainty evidence); or the number of people with protective humoral response P1 (moderate-certainty evidence), P2 (for the most studied schedule; two IPV doses followed by OPV; low-certainty evidence), and P3 (low-certainty evidence). Two IPV doses followed by bivalent OPV (IIbO) may reduce P2 neutralising antibodies compared to trivalent OPV (moderate-certainty evidence), but may make little or no difference to P1 or P2 neutralising antibodies following an IIO schedule or OPV alone (low-certainty evidence). Both IIO and IIbO schedules may increase P3 neutralising antibodies compared to OPV (moderate-certainty evidence). It may also lead to lower mucosal immunity given increased faecal excretion of P1 (low-certainty evidence), P2 and P3 (moderate-certainty evidence) after OPV challenge. IPV-OPV versus IPV It is uncertain if IPV-OPV is more effective than IPV alone at reducing the number of WPV cases (very low-certainty evidence). There were no data regarding VAPP cases. There is no clear evidence of a difference between IPV-OPV and OPV schedules for the number of people with protective humoral response (low- and moderate-certainty evidence). IPV-OPV schedules may increase mean titres of P1 neutralising antibodies compared to OPV alone (low- and moderate-certainty evidence), but the effect on P2 and P3 titres is not clear (very low- and moderate-certainty evidence). IPV-OPV probably reduces the number of people with P3 poliovirus faecal excretion after OPV challenge with IIO and IIOO sequences (moderate-certainty evidence), and may reduce the number with P2 (low-certainty evidence), but not with P1 (very low-certainty evidence). There may be little or no difference between the schedules in number of SAEs (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.43; 2 studies, 1063 participants, low-certainty evidence). The number of persons with P2 protective humoral immunity and P2 neutralising antibodies are probably lower with most sequential schemes without P2 components (i.e. bOPV) than with trivalent OPV or IVP alone (moderate-certainty evidence). IPV (3)-OPV versus IPV (2)-OPV One study (137 participants) showed no clear evidence of a difference between three IPV doses followed by OPV and two IPV doses followed by OPV, on the number of people with P1 (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.03), P2 (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.03), or P3 (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.05) protective humoral and intestinal immunity; all moderate-certainty evidence. This study did not report on any other outcomes.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

IPV-OPV compared to OPV may reduce VAPPs without affecting vaccination coverage, safety or humoral response, except P2 with sequential schemes without P2 components, but increase poliovirus faecal excretion after OPV challenge for some polio serotypes. Compared to IPV-only schedules, IPV-OPV may have little or no difference on SAEs, probably has little or no effect on persons with protective humoral response, may increase neutralising antibodies, and probably reduces faecal excretion after OPV challenge of certain polio serotypes. Using three IPV doses as part of a IPV-OPV schedule does not appear to be better than two IPV doses for protective humoral response. Sequential schedules during the transition from OPV to IPV-only immunisation schedules seems a reasonable option aligned with current WHO recommendations. Findings could help decision-makers to optimise polio vaccination policies, reducing inequities between countries.

Intestinal Immunity to Poliovirus Following Sequential Trivalent Inactivated Polio Vaccine/Bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine and Trivalent Inactivated Polio Vaccine-only Immunization Schedules: Analysis of an Open-label, Randomized, Controlled Trial in Chilean Infants

Background

Identifying polio vaccine regimens that can elicit robust intestinal mucosal immunity and interrupt viral transmission is a key priority of the polio endgame.

Methods

In a 2013 Chilean clinical trial (NCT01841671) of trivalent inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) and bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV; targeting types 1 and 3), infants were randomized to receive IPV-bOPV-bOPV, IPV-IPV-bOPV, or IPV-IPV-IPV at 8, 16, and 24 weeks of age and challenged with monovalent oral polio vaccine type 2 (mOPV2) at 28 weeks. Using fecal samples collected from 152 participants, we investigated the extent to which IPV-bOPV and IPV-only immunization schedules induced intestinal neutralizing activity and immunoglobulin A against polio types 1 and 2.

Results

Overall, 37% of infants in the IPV-bOPV groups and 26% in the IPV-only arm had detectable type 2-specific stool neutralization after the primary vaccine series. In contrast, 1 challenge dose of mOPV2 induced brisk intestinal immune responses in all vaccine groups, and significant rises in type 2-specific stool neutralization titers (P < .0001) and immunoglobulin A concentrations (P < 0.0001) were measured 2 weeks after the challenge. In subsidiary analyses, duration of breastfeeding also appeared to be associated with the magnitude of polio-specific mucosal immune parameters measured in infant fecal samples.

Conclusions

Taken together, these results underscore the concept that mucosal and systemic immune responses to polio are separate in their induction, functionality, and potential impacts on transmission and, specifically, provide evidence that primary vaccine regimens lacking homologous live vaccine components are likely to induce only modest, type-specific intestinal immunity.

Poliovirus neutralizing antibody levels among individuals in three regions of Ghana

Introduction

Ghana was declared polio-free in 2015 after the last polio case in 2008. We determined the poliovirus neutralizing antibody levels among individuals to identify possible immunity gaps.

Methods

A cross-sectional, hospital-based study was undertaken in Northern, Ashanti and Greater Accra regions of Ghana. Individuals referred for haematology at the teaching hospitals' laboratories were invited to participate in our study. Neutralizing-antibody titers to poliovirus serotypes 1,2 & 3 were assayed by WHO-standards. Antibody titers of ≥8 were considered protective. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted on subject characteristics to assess potential factors for failure to seroconvert. P-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results

Poliovirus (PV) neutralizing-antibody serotypes 1, 2 and 3 were detected in 86.0% (264/307), 84% (258/307) and 75% (230/307) of samples respectively. 60.1% (185/307) were seropositive for the three poliovirus serotypes. Neutralizing poliovirus antibodies for PV1 and PV2 were higher than for PV3. Seroprevalence of poliovirus-neutralizing antibodies among males (PV1=51.9%, PV2= 51.6% and PV3= 52.6%) were higher than in females. Seroprevalence rates of poliovirus-neutralizing antibodies (PV1, PV2, and PV3) were highest in the Northern region (90%, 81%, and 77%). Poliovirus neutralizing-antibodies (PV1and PV2) decreased with age [p< 0.001]. Low seroprevalence of poliovirus-neutralizing antibodies was significantly associated with low school attendance of mothers (p<0.001).

Conclusion

Our study population has some protection from polio. However, immunity appears to be lower with a higher age or low Mother's education. This may suggest the need for young-adult booster-dose to minimize the risk of wild poliovirus infection.

Funding

WHO Country Office Ghana.

Poliovirus antibody levels and lameness among individuals in three regions of Ghana

Introduction: Ghana recorded the last case of poliomyelitis caused by wild poliovirus in 2008 and the country was declared polio-free in 2015. Polio-neutralizing-antibody levels in the population of three geographically representative regions of Ghana was determined, to identify possible immunity gaps.

Methods: Cross-sectional, hospital (1–70 years old) and school (primary, 1–15 years old)-based studies were undertaken in three regions in 2016. Individuals who visited the three teaching hospitals of the regions and were referred for haematology investigations were invited to participate in our study. Neutralizing-antibody titers to polio serotypes P1, P2, and P3 were assayed by WHO-standards. Antibody titers of ≥8 were considered protective. In the school lameness survey, clinical and epidemiological data were obtained from parents and their lamed children. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted on subject characteristics, to assess potential factors for failure to seroconvert. P-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results: Neutralizing-antibodies against poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 were detected in 86% (264/307), 84% (258/307) and 75% (230/307) of the samples, respectively. Overall, 60.1% (185/307) were seropositive for the three polio serotypes and 2.9% (9/307) were seronegative. Polio neutralizing-antibodies (P1and P2) decreased with age (p < .001). Low seroprevalence of polio-neutralizing-antibodies was significantly associated with low school attendance of mothers (p < .001). Prevalence of residual paralysis was <1.0/1,000 among the school children.

Conclusion: Our study population is moderately protected against the three poliovirus serotypes. However, immunity appears to be lower with a higher age and low mother’s education. This may suggest the need for young-adult booster-dose to minimize the risk of wild poliovirus infection.

The statistics of epidemic transitions

Emerging and re-emerging pathogens exhibit very complex dynamics, are hard to model and difficult to predict. Their dynamics might appear intractable. However, new statistical approaches-rooted in dynamical systems and the theory of stochastic processes-have yielded insight into the dynamics of emerging and re-emerging pathogens. We argue that these approaches may lead to new methods for predicting epidemics. This perspective views pathogen emergence and re-emergence as a "critical transition," and uses the concept of noisy dynamic bifurcation to understand the relationship between the system observables and the distance to this transition. Because the system dynamics exhibit characteristic fluctuations in response to perturbations for a system in the vicinity of a critical point, we propose this information may be harnessed to develop early warning signals. Specifically, the motion of perturbations slows as the system approaches the transition.

Interventions to improve oral vaccine performance: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Oral vaccines underperform in low-income and middle-income countries compared with in high-income countries. Whether interventions can improve oral vaccine performance is uncertain.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of interventions designed to increase oral vaccine efficacy or immunogenicity. We searched Ovid-MEDLINE and Embase for trials published until Oct 23, 2017. Inclusion criteria for meta-analysis were two or more studies per intervention category and available seroconversion data. We did random-effects meta-analyses to produce summary relative risk (RR) estimates. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42017060608).

FINDINGS

Of 2843 studies identified, 87 were eligible for qualitative synthesis and 66 for meta-analysis. 22 different interventions were assessed for oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), oral rotavirus vaccine (RVV), oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and oral typhoid vaccines. There was generally high heterogeneity. Seroconversion to RVV was significantly increased by delaying the first RVV dose by 4 weeks (RR 1·37, 95% CI 1·16-1·62) and OPV seroconversion was increased with monovalent or bivalent OPV compared with trivalent OPV (RR 1·51, 95% CI 1·20-1·91). There was some evidence that separating RVV and OPV increased RVV seroconversion (RR 1·21, 95% CI 1·00-1·47) and that higher vaccine inoculum improved OCV seroconversion (RR 1·12, 95% CI 1·00-1·26). There was no evidence of effect for anthelmintics, antibiotics, probiotics, zinc, vitamin A, withholding breastfeeding, extra doses, or vaccine buffering.

INTERPRETATION

Most strategies did not improve oral vaccine performance. Delaying RVV and reducing OPV valence should be considered within immunisation programmes to reduce global enteric disease. New strategies to address the gap in oral vaccine efficacy are urgently required.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and WHO Polio Research Committee.

Persistent spatial patterns of interacting contagions

The spread of infectious diseases, rumors, fashions, and innovations are complex contagion processes, embedded in network and spatial contexts. While the studies in the former context are intensively expanded, the latter remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we investigate the pattern formation of an interacting contagion, where two infections, A and B, interact with each other and diffuse simultaneously in space. The contagion process for each follows the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible kinetics, and their interaction introduces a potential change in the secondary infection propensity compared to the baseline reproduction number R_{0}. We show that the nontrivial spatial infection patterns arise when the susceptible individuals move faster than the infected and the interaction between the two infections is neither too competitive nor too cooperative. Interestingly, the system exhibits pattern hysteresis phenomena, i.e., quite different parameter regions for patterns exist in the direction of increasing or decreasing R_{0}. Decreasing R_{0} reveals remarkable enhancement in contagion prevalence, meaning that the eradication becomes difficult compared to the single-infection or coinfection without space. Linearization analysis supports our observations, and we have identified the required elements and dynamical mechanism, which suggests that these patterns are essentially Turing patterns. Our work thus reveals new complexities in interacting contagions and paves the way for further investigation because of its relevance to both biological and social contexts.

Time to Micromanage the Pathogen-Host-Vector Interface: Considerations for Vaccine Development

The current increase in vector-borne disease worldwide necessitates novel approaches to vaccine development targeted to pathogens delivered by blood-feeding arthropod vectors into the host skin. A concept that is gaining traction in recent years is the contribution of the vector or vector-derived components, like salivary proteins, to host-pathogen interactions. Indeed, the triad of vector-host-pathogen interactions in the skin microenvironment can influence host innate and adaptive responses alike, providing an advantage to the pathogen to establish infection. A better understanding of this "bite site" microenvironment, along with how host and vector local microbiomes immunomodulate responses to pathogens, is required for future vaccines for vector-borne diseases. Microneedle administration of such vaccines may more closely mimic vector deposition of pathogen and saliva into the skin with the added benefit of near painless vaccine delivery. Focusing on the 'micro'⁻from microenvironments to microbiomes to microneedles⁻may yield an improved generation of vector-borne disease vaccines in today's increasingly complex world.

Impact of engaging security personnel on access and polio immunization outcomes in security-inaccessible areas in Borno state, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Nigeria was polio free for almost 2 years but, with the recent liberation of areas under the captivity of insurgents, there has been a resurgence of polio cases. For several years, these inaccessible areas did not have access to vaccination due to activities of Bokoharam, resulting in a concentration of a cohort of unvaccinated children that served as a polio sanctuary. This article describes the processes of engagement of security personnel to access security-compromised areas and the impact on immunization outcomes.

METHODS

We assessed routine program data from January 2016 to July 2016 in security-inaccessible areas and we evaluated the effectiveness of engaging security personnel to improve access to settlements in security-compromised Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Borno state. We thereafter evaluated the effects of this engagement on postcampaign evaluation indicators.

RESULTS

From 15 LGAs accessible to vaccination teams in January 2016, there was a 47% increase in July 2016. The number of wards increased from 131 in January to 162 in July 2016, while the settlement numbers increased from 6050 in January to 6548 in July 2016. The average percentage of missed children decreased from 8% in January to 3% in July 2016, while the number of LGAs with ≥ 80% coverage increased from 85% in January to 100% in July 2016.

CONCLUSION

The engagement of security personnel in immunization activities led to an improved access and improvement in postcampaign evaluation indicators in security-compromised areas of a Nigerian state. This approach promises to be an impactful innovation in reaching settlements in security-compromised areas.

Validation of a High-throughput, Multiplex, Real-time Qualitative Polymerase Chain Reaction Assay for the Detection of Sabin Oral Polio Vaccine in Environmental Samples

Background

Currently, the primary mechanism for poliovirus detection is acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, with environmental sampling serving as a complement. However, as AFP cases drop, environmental surveillance will become increasingly critical for poliovirus detection. Mexico provides a natural environment to study oral polio vaccine (OPV) transmission, as it provides routine injected polio vaccine immunization and biannual OPV campaigns in February and May.

Methods

As part of a study of OPV transmission in which 155 children were vaccinated with OPV, monthly sewage samples were collected from rivers leading from 3 indigenous Mexican villages (Capoluca, Campo Grande, and Tuxpanguillo) from February to May 2015. Samples were also collected from October 2015 to October 2017, during which time there were standard OPV campaigns. Samples were analyzed for the presence of OPV serotypes, using a real-time qualitative polymerase chain reaction assay capable of detecting as few as 9, 12, and 10 copies/100 µL of viral ribonucleic acid for OPV serotypes 1, 2, and 3 (OPV-1, -2, and -3), respectively. Included here are 54 samples, taken up to November 2016.

Results

Of the 54 samples, 13 (24%) were positive for OPV. After the vaccination of 155 children in February 2015, OPV was found 2 months after vaccination. After unrestricted OPV administration in February 2016, OPV was detected in sewage up to 8 months after vaccination. OPV-3 was found in 11 of the 13 positive samples (85%), OPV-2 was found in 3 positive samples (23%), and OPV-1 was found in 1 sample (8%).

Conclusions

OPV can be detected even when small amounts of the vaccine are introduced into a community, as shown by OPV-positive sewage samples even when only 155 children were vaccinated. When OPV vaccination was unrestricted, sewage samples were positive up to 8 months after vaccination, implying community OPV circulation for at least 8 months. OPV-3 was the serotype most found in these samples, indicating prolonged transmission of OPV-3 when compared to the other serotypes. Future work could compare the phylogenetic variance of OPV isolates from sewage after OPV vaccinations.

Using routinely collected laboratory data to identify high rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis burden communities in the Western Cape Province, South Africa: A retrospective spatiotemporal analysis

BACKGROUND

South Africa has the highest tuberculosis incidence globally (781/100,000), with an estimated 4.3% of cases being rifampicin resistant (RR). Control and elimination strategies will require detailed spatial information to understand where drug-resistant tuberculosis exists and why it persists in those communities. We demonstrate a method to enable drug-resistant tuberculosis monitoring by identifying high-burden communities in the Western Cape Province using routinely collected laboratory data.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We retrospectively identified cases of microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis and RR-tuberculosis from all biological samples submitted for tuberculosis testing (n = 2,219,891) to the Western Cape National Health Laboratory Services (NHLS) between January 1, 2008, and June 30, 2013. Because the NHLS database lacks unique patient identifiers, we performed a series of record-linking processes to match specimen records to individual patients. We counted an individual as having a single disease episode if their positive samples came from within two years of each other. Cases were aggregated by clinic location (n = 302) to estimate the percentage of tuberculosis cases with rifampicin resistance per clinic. We used inverse distance weighting (IDW) to produce heatmaps of the RR-tuberculosis percentage across the province. Regression was used to estimate annual changes in the RR-tuberculosis percentage by clinic, and estimated average size and direction of change was mapped. We identified 799,779 individuals who had specimens submitted from mappable clinics for testing, of whom 222,735 (27.8%) had microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis. The study population was 43% female, the median age was 36 years (IQR 27-44), and 10,255 (4.6%, 95% CI: 4.6-4.7) cases had documented rifampicin resistance. Among individuals with microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis, 8,947 (4.0%) had more than one disease episode during the study period. The percentage of tuberculosis cases with rifampicin resistance documented among these individuals was 11.4% (95% CI: 10.7-12.0). Overall, the percentage of tuberculosis cases that were RR-tuberculosis was spatially heterogeneous, ranging from 0% to 25% across the province. Our maps reveal significant yearly fluctuations in RR-tuberculosis percentages at several locations. Additionally, the directions of change over time in RR-tuberculosis percentage were not uniform. The main limitation of this study is the lack of unique patient identifiers in the NHLS database, rendering findings to be estimates reliant on the accuracy of the person-matching algorithm.

CONCLUSIONS

Our maps reveal striking spatial and temporal heterogeneity in RR-tuberculosis percentages across this province. We demonstrate the potential to monitor RR-tuberculosis spatially and temporally with routinely collected laboratory data, enabling improved resource targeting and more rapid locally appropriate interventions.

Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan to Inform Vaccination Strategies in Undervaccinated Subpopulations

Due to security, access, and programmatic challenges in areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries continue to sustain indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission and threaten the success of global polio eradication and oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. We fitted an existing differential-equation-based poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model to Pakistan and Afghanistan using four subpopulations to characterize the well-vaccinated and undervaccinated subpopulations in each country. We explored retrospective and prospective scenarios for using inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization or supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). The undervaccinated subpopulations sustain the circulation of serotype 1 WPV and serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus. We find a moderate impact of past IPV use on polio incidence and population immunity to transmission mainly due to (1) the boosting effect of IPV for individuals with preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection and (2) the effect of IPV-only on oropharyngeal transmission for individuals without preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection. Future IPV use may similarly yield moderate benefits, particularly if access to undervaccinated subpopulations dramatically improves. However, OPV provides a much greater impact on transmission and the incremental benefit of IPV in addition to OPV remains limited. This study suggests that despite the moderate effect of using IPV in SIAs, using OPV in SIAs remains the most effective means to stop transmission, while limited IPV resources should prioritize IPV use in routine immunization.

Retinoic acid elicits a coordinated expression of gut homing markers on T lymphocytes of Zambian men receiving oral Vivotif, but not Rotarix, Dukoral or OPVERO vaccines

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ATRA increased vaccine specific IgA in gut secretions to Vivotif but not Dukoral or Rotarix.

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ATRA increased α4β7 and CCR9 gut marker expression in a coordinated manner only when given simultaneously with Vivotif vaccine.

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In individuals with coordinated gut marker expression Vivotif specific IgA increase was much stronger.

All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) up-regulates, in laboratory animals, the expression of the gut homing markers α4β7 integrin and CCR9 on lymphocytes, increasing their gut tropism. Here, we show that, in healthy adult volunteers, ATRA induced an increase of these gut homing markers on T cells in vivo in a time dependent manner. The coordinated increase of α4β7 and CCR9 by ATRA was seen in 57% (12/21) of volunteers and only when given together with an oral Vivotif vaccine. When this coordinated response to ATRA and Vivotif vaccine was present, it was strongly correlated with the gut immunoglobulin A (IgA) specific response to vaccine LPS (ρ = 0.82; P = 0.02). Using RNA-Seq analysis of whole blood transcription, patients receiving ATRA and Vivotif in conjunction showed transcriptomic changes in immune-related pathways, particularly including interferon α/β signaling pathway, membrane-ECM interactions and immune hubs. These results suggest that exogenous ATRA can be used to manipulate responses to a subclass of oral vaccines, so far limited to a live attenuated Vivotif vaccine.

Assessing the stability of polio eradication after the withdrawal of oral polio vaccine

The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live-attenuated polioviruses that induce immunity by causing low virulence infections in vaccine recipients and their close contacts. Widespread immunization with OPV has reduced the annual global burden of paralytic poliomyelitis by a factor of 10,000 or more and has driven wild poliovirus (WPV) to the brink of eradication. However, in instances that have so far been rare, OPV can paralyze vaccine recipients and generate vaccine-derived polio outbreaks. To complete polio eradication, OPV use should eventually cease, but doing so will leave a growing population fully susceptible to infection. If poliovirus is reintroduced after OPV cessation, under what conditions will OPV vaccination be required to interrupt transmission? Can conditions exist in which OPV and WPV reintroduction present similar risks of transmission? To answer these questions, we built a multi-scale mathematical model of infection and transmission calibrated to data from clinical trials and field epidemiology studies. At the within-host level, the model describes the effects of vaccination and waning immunity on shedding and oral susceptibility to infection. At the between-host level, the model emulates the interaction of shedding and oral susceptibility with sanitation and person-to-person contact patterns to determine the transmission rate in communities. Our results show that inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) is sufficient to prevent outbreaks in low transmission rate settings and that OPV can be reintroduced and withdrawn as needed in moderate transmission rate settings. However, in high transmission rate settings, the conditions that support vaccine-derived outbreaks have only been rare because population immunity has been high. Absent population immunity, the Sabin strains from OPV will be nearly as capable of causing outbreaks as WPV. If post-cessation outbreak responses are followed by new vaccine-derived outbreaks, strategies to restore population immunity will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication.

Oral polio vaccine (OPV) has played an essential role in the elimination of wild poliovirus (WPV). OPV contains attenuated (weakened) yet transmissible viruses that can spread from person to person. In its attenuated form, this spread is beneficial as it generates population immunity. However, the attenuation of OPV is unstable and it can, in rare instances, revert to a virulent form and cause vaccine-derived outbreaks of paralytic poliomyelitis. Thus, OPV is both a vaccine and a source of poliovirus, and for complete eradication, its use in vaccination must be ended. After OPV is no longer used in routine immunization, as with the cessation of type 2 OPV in 2016, population immunity to polioviruses will decline. A key question is how this loss of population immunity will affect the potential of OPV viruses to spread within and across communities. To address this, we examined the roles of immunity, sanitation, and social contact in limiting OPV transmission. Our results derive from an extensive review and synthesis of vaccine trial data and community epidemiological studies. Shedding, oral susceptibility to infection, and transmission data are analyzed to systematically explain and model observations of WPV and OPV circulation. We show that in high transmission rate settings, falling population immunity after OPV cessation will lead to conditions in which OPV and WPV are similarly capable of causing outbreaks, and that this conclusion is compatible with the known safety of OPV prior to global cessation. Novel strategies will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication for all time.

The roles of resident, central and effector memory CD4 T-cells in protective immunity following infection or vaccination

Immunological memory provides rapid protection to pathogens previously encountered through infection or vaccination. CD4 T-cells play a central role in all adaptive immune responses. Vaccines must, therefore, activate CD4 T-cells if they are to generate protective immunity. For many diseases, we do not have effective vaccines. These include human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis and malaria, which are responsible for many millions of deaths each year across the globe. CD4 T-cells play many different roles during the immune response coordinating the actions of many other cells. In order to harness the diverse protective effects of memory CD4 T-cells, we need to understand how memory CD4 T-cells are generated and how they protect the host. Here we review recent findings on the location of different subsets of memory CD4 T-cells that are found in peripheral tissues (tissue resident memory T-cells) and in the circulation (central and effector memory T-cells). We discuss the generation of these cells, and the evidence that demonstrates how they provide immune protection in animal and human challenge models.

Quantifying Transmission Heterogeneity Using Both Pathogen Phylogenies and Incidence Time Series

Heterogeneity in individual-level transmissibility can be quantified by the dispersion parameter k of the offspring distribution. Quantifying heterogeneity is important as it affects other parameter estimates, it modulates the degree of unpredictability of an epidemic, and it needs to be accounted for in models of infection control. Aggregated data such as incidence time series are often not sufficiently informative to estimate k. Incorporating phylogenetic analysis can help to estimate k concurrently with other epidemiological parameters. We have developed an inference framework that uses particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to estimate k and other epidemiological parameters using both incidence time series and the pathogen phylogeny. Using the framework to fit a modified compartmental transmission model that includes the parameter k to simulated data, we found that more accurate and less biased estimates of the reproductive number were obtained by combining epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses. However, k was most accurately estimated using pathogen phylogeny alone. Accurately estimating k was necessary for unbiased estimates of the reproductive number, but it did not affect the accuracy of reporting probability and epidemic start date estimates. We further demonstrated that inference was possible in the presence of phylogenetic uncertainty by sampling from the posterior distribution of phylogenies. Finally, we used the inference framework to estimate transmission parameters from epidemiological and genetic data collected during a poliovirus outbreak. Despite the large degree of phylogenetic uncertainty, we demonstrated that incorporating phylogenetic data in parameter inference improved the accuracy and precision of estimates.

The seasonality of nonpolio enteroviruses in the United States: Patterns and drivers

Nonpolio enteroviruses are diverse and common viruses that can circulate year-round but tend to peak in summer. Although most infections are asymptomatic, they can result in a wide range of neurological and other diseases. Many serotypes circulate every year, and different serotypes predominate in different years, but the drivers of their geographical and temporal dynamics are not understood. We use national enterovirus surveillance data collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 1983-2013, as well as demographic and climatic data for the same period, to study the patterns and drivers of the seasonality of these infections. We find that the seasonal pattern of enterovirus cases is spatially structured in the United States and similar to that observed for historical prevaccination poliomyelitis (1931-1954). We identify latitudinal gradients for the amplitude and the timing of the peak of cases, meaning that those are more regularly distributed all year-round in the south and have a more pronounced peak that arrives later toward the north. The peak is estimated to occur between July and September across the United States, and 1 month earlier than that for historical poliomyelitis. Using mixed-effects models, we find that climate, but not demography, is likely to drive the seasonal pattern of enterovirus cases and that the dew point temperature alone explains ∼30% of the variation in the intensity of transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of enteroviruses, demonstrates important similarities in their circulation dynamics with polioviruses, and identifies potential drivers of their seasonality.

Adjuvant selection regulates gut migration and phenotypic diversity of antigen-specific CD4+ T cells following parenteral immunization

Infectious diarrheal diseases are the second leading cause of death in children under 5 years, making vaccines against these diseases a high priority. It is known that certain vaccine adjuvants, chiefly bacterial ADP-ribosylating enterotoxins, can induce mucosal antibodies when delivered parenterally. Based on this, we reasoned vaccine-specific mucosal cellular immunity could be induced via parenteral immunization with these adjuvants. Here, we show that, in contrast to the Toll-like receptor-9 agonist CpG, intradermal immunization with non-toxic double-mutant heat-labile toxin (dmLT) from enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli drove endogenous, antigen-specific CD4⁺ T cells to expand and upregulate the gut-homing integrin α4β7. This was followed by T-cell migration into gut-draining lymph nodes and both small and large intestines. We also found that dmLT produces a balanced T-helper 1 and 17 (Th1 and Th17) response, whereas T cells from CpG immunized mice were predominantly Th1. Immunization with dmLT preferentially engaged CD103⁺ dendritic cells (DCs) compared with CpG, and mice deficient in CD103⁺ DCs were unable to fully license antigen-specific T-cell migration to the intestinal mucosae following parenteral immunization. This work has the potential to redirect the design of existing and next generation vaccines to elicit pathogen-specific immunity in the intestinal tract with non-mucosal immunization.

Comparative epidemiology of poliovirus transmission

Understanding the determinants of polio transmission and its large-scale epidemiology remains a public health priority. Despite a 99% reduction in annual wild poliovirus (WPV) cases since 1988, tackling the last 1% has proven difficult. We identified key covariates of geographical variation in polio transmission patterns by relating country-specific annual disease incidence to demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors. We assessed the relative contributions of these variables to the performance of computer-generated models for predicting polio transmission. We also examined the effect of spatial coupling on the polio extinction frequency in islands relative to larger land masses. Access to sanitation, population density, forest cover and routine vaccination coverage were the strongest predictors of polio incidence, however their relative effect sizes were inconsistent geographically. The effect of climate variables on polio incidence was negligible, indicating that a climate effect is not identifiable at the annual scale, suggesting a role for climate in shaping the transmission seasonality rather than intensity. We found polio fadeout frequency to depend on both population size and demography, which should therefore be considered in policies aimed at extinction. Our comparative epidemiological approach highlights the heterogeneity among polio transmission determinants. Recognition of this variation is important for the maintenance of population immunity in a post-polio era.

Survey of poliovirus antibodies in Borno and Yobe States, North-Eastern Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Nigeria remains one of only three polio-endemic countries in the world. In 2016, after an absence of 2 years, wild poliovirus serotype 1 was again detected in North-Eastern Nigeria. To better guide programmatic action, we assessed the immunity status of infants and children in Borno and Yobe states, and evaluated the impact of recently introduced inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) on antibody seroprevalence.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a facility-based study of seroprevalence to poliovirus serotypes 1, 2 and 3 among health-seeking patients in two sites each of Borno and Yobe States. Enrolment was conducted amongst children 6-9 and 36-47 months of age attending the paediatrics outpatient department of the selected hospitals in the two states between 11 January and 5 February 2016. Detailed demographic and immunization history of the child was taken and an assessment of the child's health and nutritional state was conducted via physical examination. Blood was collected to test for levels of neutralizing antibody titres against the three poliovirus serotypes. The seroprevalence in the two age groups, potential determinants of seropositivity and the impact of one dose of IPV on humoral immunity were assessed. A total of 583 subjects were enrolled and provided sufficient quantities of serum for testing. Among 6-9-month-old infants, the seroprevalence was 81% (74-87%), 86% (79-91%), and 72% (65-79%) in Borno State, and 75% (67-81%), 74% (66-81%) and 69% (61-76%) in Yobe States, for serotypes-1, 2 and 3, respectively. Among children aged 36-47 months, the seroprevalence was >90% in both states for all three serotypes, with the exception of type 3 seroprevalence in Borno [87% (80-91%)]. Median reciprocal anti-polio neutralizing antibody titers were consistently >900 for serotypes 1 and 2 across age groups and states; with lower estimates for serotype 3, particularly in Borno. IPV received in routine immunization was found to be a significant determinant of seropositivity and anti-polio neutralizing antibodies among 6-9-month-old infants for serotypes 1 and 3, but demonstrated a non-significant positive association for serotype 2. Children receiving IPV through SIAs demonstrated significantly higher anti-polio neutralizing antibodies for serotypes 1 and 3.

CONCLUSIONS

The seroprevalence to poliovirus remains suboptimal in both Borno and Yobe States in Nigeria. The low seroprevalence facilitated the continued transmission of both wild serotype 1 and serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus detected in Borno State in 2016. Further efforts are necessary to improve the immunity status of these populations to ensure sufficient population immunity to interrupt transmission.

Addressing the Challenges and Opportunities of the Polio Endgame: Lessons for the Future

The Global Commission for the Certification of the Eradication of Poliomyelitis certified the eradication of type 2 poliovirus in September 2015, making type 2 poliovirus the first human pathogen to be eradicated since smallpox. The eradication of type 2 poliovirus, the absence of detection of type 3 poliovirus worldwide since November 2012, and cornering type 1 poliovirus to only a few geographic areas of 3 countries has enabled implementation of the endgame of polio eradication which calls for a phased withdrawal of oral polio vaccine beginning with the type 2 component, introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine, strengthening of routine immunization in countries with extensive polio resources, and initiating activities to transition polio resources, program experience, and lessons learned to other global health initiatives. This supplement focuses on efforts by global partners to successfully launch polio endgame activities to permanently secure and sustain the enormous gains of polio eradication forever.

Risk factors and short-term projections for serotype-1 poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan: A spatiotemporal analysis

BACKGROUND

Pakistan currently provides a substantial challenge to global polio eradication, having contributed to 73% of reported poliomyelitis in 2015 and 54% in 2016. A better understanding of the risk factors and movement patterns that contribute to poliovirus transmission across Pakistan would support evidence-based planning for mass vaccination campaigns.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We fit mixed-effects logistic regression models to routine surveillance data recording the presence of poliomyelitis associated with wild-type 1 poliovirus in districts of Pakistan over 6-month intervals between 2010 to 2016. To accurately capture the force of infection (FOI) between districts, we compared 6 models of population movement (adjacency, gravity, radiation, radiation based on population density, radiation based on travel times, and mobile-phone based). We used the best-fitting model (based on the Akaike Information Criterion [AIC]) to produce 6-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence. The odds of observing poliomyelitis decreased with improved routine or supplementary (campaign) immunisation coverage (multivariable odds ratio [OR] = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.84; and OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, respectively, for each 10% increase in coverage) and increased with a higher rate of reporting non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26 for a 1-unit increase in non-polio AFP per 100,000 persons aged <15 years). Estimated movement of poliovirus-infected individuals was associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis, with the radiation model of movement providing the best fit to the data. Six-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence by district for 2013-2016 showed good predictive ability (area under the curve range: 0.76-0.98). However, although the best-fitting movement model (radiation) was a significant determinant of poliomyelitis incidence, it did not improve the predictive ability of the multivariable model. Overall, in Pakistan the risk of polio cases was predicted to reduce between July-December 2016 and January-June 2017. The accuracy of the model may be limited by the small number of AFP cases in some districts.

CONCLUSIONS

Spatiotemporal variation in immunization performance and population movement patterns are important determinants of historical poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan; however, movement dynamics were less influential in predicting future cases, at a time when the polio map is shrinking. Results from the regression models we present are being used to help plan vaccination campaigns and transit vaccination strategies in Pakistan.

The polio endgame: rationale behind the change in immunisation

The decades long effort to eradicate polio is nearing the final stages and oral polio vaccine (OPV) is much to thank for this success. As cases of wild poliovirus continue to dwindle, cases of paralysis associated with OPV itself have become a concern. As type-2 poliovirus (one of three) has been certified eradicated and a large proportion of OPV-related paralysis is caused by the type-2 component of OPV, the World Health Assembly endorsed the phased withdrawal of OPV and the introduction of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) into routine immunisation schedules as a crucial step in the polio endgame plan. The rapid pace of IPV scale-up and uptake required adequate supply, planning, advocacy, training and operational readiness. Similarly, the synchronised switch from trivalent OPV (all three types) to bivalent OPV (types 1 and 3) involved an unprecedented level of global coordination and country commitment. The important shift in vaccination policy seen through global IPV introduction and OPV withdrawal represents an historical milestone reached in the polio eradication effort.

Place and Child Health: The Interaction of Population Density and Sanitation in Developing Countries

A long literature in demography has debated the importance of place for health, especially children's health. In this study, we assess whether the importance of dense settlement for infant mortality and child height is moderated by exposure to local sanitation behavior. Is open defecation (i.e., without a toilet or latrine) worse for infant mortality and child height where population density is greater? Is poor sanitation is an important mechanism by which population density influences child health outcomes? We present two complementary analyses using newly assembled data sets, which represent two points in a trade-off between external and internal validity. First, we concentrate on external validity by studying infant mortality and child height in a large, international child-level data set of 172 Demographic and Health Surveys, matched to census population density data for 1,800 subnational regions. Second, we concentrate on internal validity by studying child height in Bangladeshi districts, using a new data set constructed with GIS techniques that allows us to control for fixed effects at a high level of geographic resolution. We find a statistically robust and quantitatively comparable interaction between sanitation and population density with both approaches: open defecation externalities are more important for child health outcomes where people live more closely together.

The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management

Aim: To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response. Methods: INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management. Results: Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability–high-consequence realizations. Conclusion: New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.

Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties

Infectious diseases are a threat to human health and a hindrance to societal development. Consequently, the spread of diseases in both time and space has been widely studied, revealing the different types of spatial patterns. Transitions between patterns are an emergent property in spatial epidemics that can serve as a potential trend indicator of disease spread. Despite the usefulness of such an indicator, attempts to systematize the topic of pattern transitions have been few and far between. We present a mini-review on pattern transitions in spatial epidemics, describing the types of transitions and their underlying mechanisms. We show that pattern transitions relate to the complexity of spatial epidemics by, for example, being accompanied with phenomena such as coherence resonance and cyclic evolution. The results presented herein provide valuable insights into disease prevention and control, and may even be applicable outside epidemiology, including other branches of medical science, ecology, quantitative finance, and elsewhere.

Measuring polio immunity to plan immunization activities

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Reliability and comparability of reported polio vaccine dose histories are studied.

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In many areas, reported doses have a weak relationship to immunization activities.

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Data quality may distort risk assessment and immunization activity allocation.

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Alternative data should be considered for planning polio immunization activities.

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative is closer than ever to achieving a polio-free world. Immunization activities must still be carried out in non-endemic countries to maintain population immunity at levels which will stop poliovirus from spreading if it is re-introduced from still-infected areas. In areas where there is no active transmission of poliovirus, programs must rely on surrogate indicators of population immunity to determine the appropriate immunization activities, typically caregiver-reported vaccination history obtained from non-polio acute flaccid paralysis patients identified through polio surveillance. We used regression models to examine the relationship between polio vaccination campaigns and caregiver-reported polio vaccination history. We find that in many countries, vaccination campaigns have a surprisingly weak impact on these commonly used indicators. We conclude that alternative criteria and data, such as routine immunization indicators from vaccination records or household surveys, should be considered for planning polio vaccination campaigns, and that validation of such surrogate indicators is necessary if they are to be used as the basis for program planning and risk assessment. We recommend that the GPEI and similar organizations consider or continue devoting additional resources to rigorously study population immunity and campaign effectiveness in at-risk countries.

Immune Responses to an Oral Cholera Vaccine in Internally Displaced Persons in South Sudan

Despite recent large-scale cholera outbreaks, little is known about the immunogenicity of oral cholera vaccines (OCV) in African populations, particularly among those at highest cholera risk. During a 2015 preemptive OCV campaign among internally displaced persons in South Sudan, a year after a large cholera outbreak, we enrolled 37 young children (1-5 years old), 67 older children (6-17 years old) and 101 adults (≥18 years old), who received two doses of OCV (Shanchol) spaced approximately 3 weeks apart. Cholera-specific antibody responses were determined at days 0, 21 and 35 post-immunization. High baseline vibriocidal titers (>80) were observed in 21% of the participants, suggesting recent cholera exposure or vaccination. Among those with titers ≤80, 90% young children, 73% older children and 72% adults seroconverted (≥4 fold titer rise) after the 1^st OCV dose; with no additional seroconversion after the 2^nd dose. Post-vaccination immunological endpoints did not differ across age groups. Our results indicate Shanchol was immunogenic in this vulnerable population and that a single dose alone may be sufficient to achieve similar short-term immunological responses to the currently licensed two-dose regimen. While we found no evidence of differential response by age, further immunologic and epidemiologic studies are needed.

Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China

Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of factors, including meteorological, demographic and public health intervention factors, were carefully selected and their effects on HFMD transmission were investigated with Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The determining factors for the variation of HFMD transmission were different for the southeastern and the northwestern regions of China. In the northwest, fadeouts occurred yearly, and the average age at infection and the fadeout were negatively correlated with the population density. In the southeast, HFMD transmission was governed by the combined effects of the birth rate, the relative humidity and the interaction of the Health System Performance and the log of the population density. When the Health System Performance was low, HFMD transmission increased with the population density, but when the Health System Performance was high, the better health performance counteracted the transmission increase due to the higher population density.

Population Immunity against Serotype-2 Poliomyelitis Leading up to the Global Withdrawal of the Oral Poliovirus Vaccine: Spatio-temporal Modelling of Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Global withdrawal of serotype-2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) took place in April 2016. This marked a milestone in global polio eradication and was a public health intervention of unprecedented scale, affecting 155 countries. Achieving high levels of serotype-2 population immunity before OPV2 withdrawal was critical to avoid subsequent outbreaks of serotype-2 vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPV2s).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In August 2015, we estimated vaccine-induced population immunity against serotype-2 poliomyelitis for 1 January 2004-30 June 2015 and produced forecasts for April 2016 by district in Nigeria and Pakistan. Population immunity was estimated from the vaccination histories of children <36 mo old identified with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) reported through polio surveillance, information on immunisation activities with different oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) formulations, and serotype-specific estimates of the efficacy of these OPVs against poliomyelitis. District immunity estimates were spatio-temporally smoothed using a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Coverage estimates for immunisation activities were also obtained, allowing for heterogeneity within and among districts. Forward projections of immunity, based on these estimates and planned immunisation activities, were produced through to April 2016 using a cohort model. Estimated population immunity was negatively correlated with the probability of VDPV2 poliomyelitis being reported in a district. In Nigeria and Pakistan, declines in immunity during 2008-2009 and 2012-2013, respectively, were associated with outbreaks of VDPV2. Immunity has since improved in both countries as a result of increased use of trivalent OPV, and projections generally indicated sustained or improved immunity in April 2016, such that the majority of districts (99% [95% uncertainty interval 97%-100%] in Nigeria and 84% [95% uncertainty interval 77%-91%] in Pakistan) had >70% population immunity among children <36 mo old. Districts with lower immunity were clustered in northeastern Nigeria and northwestern Pakistan. The accuracy of immunity estimates was limited by the small numbers of non-polio AFP cases in some districts, which was reflected by large uncertainty intervals. Forecasted improvements in immunity for April 2016 were robust to the uncertainty in estimates of baseline immunity (January-June 2015), vaccine coverage, and vaccine efficacy.

CONCLUSIONS

Immunity against serotype-2 poliomyelitis was forecasted to improve in April 2016 compared to the first half of 2015 in Nigeria and Pakistan. These analyses informed the endorsement of OPV2 withdrawal in April 2016 by the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization.