Epidemiology. Emerging disease or diagnosis?

Increased Pediatric Respiratory Syncytial Virus Case Counts Following the Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Can Be Attributed to Changes in Testing

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation dropped markedly early in the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a resurgence with heightened case counts. The "immunity debt" hypothesis proposes that the RSV-naїve pediatric population increased during the period of low transmission. However, the evidence supporting this hypothesis is limited, and the role of changing testing practices in the perceived surge has not been comprehensively evaluated.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, retrospective analysis of 342 530 RSV encounters and 980 546 RSV diagnostic tests occurring at 32 US pediatric hospitals in 2013-2023. We used interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic-associated changes in RSV patient and test volume and to quantify changes in the proportions of patients requiring hospitalization, intensive care, or mechanical ventilation. We quantified the fraction of the shifts in case counts and in the age of diagnosed patients attributable to changes in testing.

RESULTS

RSV patient volume increased 2.4-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7, 3.5) in 2021-2023 relative to the pre-pandemic phase and was accompanied by an 18.9-fold increase (95% CI: 15.0, 23.9) in RSV test volume. Shifts in patient volume and in patient age were largely attributable to increased testing. The proportions of patients with RSV that required hospitalization, intensive care, or mechanical ventilation declined significantly across all patient age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A surge in RSV testing, rather than in viral circulation, likely underlies the increased case counts observed in 2021-2023. These findings warrant a critical assessment of the immunity debt hypothesis and highlight the importance of considering the testing denominator when surveillance strategies are dynamic.

Genome-wide association study identifies human genetic variants associated with fatal outcome from Lassa fever

Infection with Lassa virus (LASV) can cause Lassa fever, a haemorrhagic illness with an estimated fatality rate of 29.7%, but causes no or mild symptoms in many individuals. Here, to investigate whether human genetic variation underlies the heterogeneity of LASV infection, we carried out genome-wide association studies (GWAS) as well as seroprevalence surveys, human leukocyte antigen typing and high-throughput variant functional characterization assays. We analysed Lassa fever susceptibility and fatal outcomes in 533 cases of Lassa fever and 1,986 population controls recruited over a 7 year period in Nigeria and Sierra Leone. We detected genome-wide significant variant associations with Lassa fever fatal outcomes near GRM7 and LIF in the Nigerian cohort. We also show that a haplotype bearing signatures of positive selection and overlapping LARGE1, a required LASV entry factor, is associated with decreased risk of Lassa fever in the Nigerian cohort but not in the Sierra Leone cohort. Overall, we identified variants and genes that may impact the risk of severe Lassa fever, demonstrating how GWAS can provide insight into viral pathogenesis.

Increased pediatric RSV case counts following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 are attributable to increased testing

Background

The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) dropped markedly early in the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a resurgence with heightened case counts. The "immunity debt" hypothesis proposes that the RSV-naive pediatric population increased during the period of low transmission, resulting in a subsequent increased risk of infection. However, the evidence supporting this hypothesis is limited, and no studies have comprehensively evaluated the role of changing respiratory viral testing practices in the perceived surge.

Methods

We conducted a multicenter, retrospective analysis of 342,530 RSV encounters and 980,546 RSV diagnostic tests occurring at 32 United States pediatric hospitals between 2013 and 2023. We used interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic-associated changes in RSV patient and testing volume, and to quantify changes in the proportions of patients admitted from the emergency department (ED), admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), and receiving mechanical ventilation. We quantified the fraction of the observed shifts in case counts and in the age of diagnosed patients attributable to changes in RSV testing practices. Finally, we analyzed 524,404 influenza virus encounters and 1,768,526 influenza diagnostic tests to address the specificity of the findings to RSV.

Findings

RSV patient volume increased 2.4-fold (95% CI: 1.7, 3.5) in 2021-2023 relative to the pre-pandemic phase, and was accompanied by an 18.9-fold increase (95% CI: 15.0, 23.9) in RSV test volume. Over two-thirds of the apparent shifts in patient volume and in patient age were attributable to increased testing, which was concentrated among older pediatric patients. The proportions of patients with RSV requiring hospitalization, intensive care, or mechanical ventilation declined significantly across all patient age groups. These declines were not observed for patients with influenza virus.

Interpretation

A surge in RSV testing, rather than in viral circulation, likely underlies the increased case counts observed in 2021-2023. We identify expected consequences of increased testing, including the diagnosis of less severe cases and a shift in the patient age distribution. These findings warrant a critical assessment of the immunity debt hypothesis, while highlighting the importance of considering the testing denominator when surveillance strategies are dynamic.

Funding

National Institutes of Health & Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

Metagenomic surveillance uncovers diverse and novel viral taxa in febrile patients from Nigeria

Effective infectious disease surveillance in high-risk regions is critical for clinical care and pandemic preemption; however, few clinical diagnostics are available for the wide range of potential human pathogens. Here, we conduct unbiased metagenomic sequencing of 593 samples from febrile Nigerian patients collected in three settings: i) population-level surveillance of individuals presenting with symptoms consistent with Lassa Fever (LF); ii) real-time investigations of outbreaks with suspected infectious etiologies; and iii) undiagnosed clinically challenging cases. We identify 13 distinct viruses, including the second and third documented cases of human blood-associated dicistrovirus, and a highly divergent, unclassified dicistrovirus that we name human blood-associated dicistrovirus 2. We show that pegivirus C is a common co-infection in individuals with LF and is associated with lower Lassa viral loads and favorable outcomes. We help uncover the causes of three outbreaks as yellow fever virus, monkeypox virus, and a noninfectious cause, the latter ultimately determined to be pesticide poisoning. We demonstrate that a local, Nigerian-driven metagenomics response to complex public health scenarios generates accurate, real-time differential diagnoses, yielding insights that inform policy.

When Vibrios Take Flight: A Meta-Analysis of Pathogenic Vibrio Species in Wild and Domestic Birds

Of the over 100 species in the genus Vibrio, approximately twelve are associated with clinical disease, such as cholera and vibriosis. Crucially, eleven of those twelve, including Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio vulnificus, have been isolated from birds. Since 1965, pathogenic Vibrio species have been consistently isolated from aquatic and ground-foraging bird species, which has implications for public health, as well as the One Health paradigm defined as an ecology-inspired, integrative framework for the study of health and disease, inclusive of environmental, human, and animal health. In this meta-analysis, we identified 76 studies from the primary literature which report on or examine birds as hosts for pathogenic Vibrio species. We found that the burden of disease in birds was most commonly associated with V. cholerae, followed by V. metschnikovii and V. parahaemolyticus. Meta-analysis wide prevalence of our Vibrio pathogens varied from 19% for V. parahaemolyticus to 1% for V. mimicus. Wild and domestic birds were both affected, which may have implications for conservation, as well as agriculturally associated avian species. As pathogenic Vibrios become more abundant throughout the world as a result of warming estuaries and oceans, susceptible avian species should be continually monitored as potential reservoirs for these pathogens.

The Origins and Future of Sentinel: An Early-Warning System for Pandemic Preemption and Response

While investigating a signal of adaptive evolution in humans at the gene LARGE, we encountered an intriguing finding by Dr. Stefan Kunz that the gene plays a critical role in Lassa virus binding and entry. This led us to pursue field work to test our hypothesis that natural selection acting on LARGE-detected in the Yoruba population of Nigeria-conferred resistance to Lassa Fever in some West African populations. As we delved further, we conjectured that the "emerging" nature of recently discovered diseases like Lassa fever is related to a newfound capacity for detection, rather than a novel viral presence, and that humans have in fact been exposed to the viruses that cause such diseases for much longer than previously suspected. Dr. Stefan Kunz's critical efforts not only laid the groundwork for this discovery, but also inspired and catalyzed a series of events that birthed Sentinel, an ambitious and large-scale pandemic prevention effort in West Africa. Sentinel aims to detect and characterize deadly pathogens before they spread across the globe, through implementation of its three fundamental pillars: Detect, Connect, and Empower. More specifically, Sentinel is designed to detect known and novel infections rapidly, connect and share information in real time to identify emerging threats, and empower the public health community to improve pandemic preparedness and response anywhere in the world. We are proud to dedicate this work to Stefan Kunz, and eagerly invite new collaborators, experts, and others to join us in our efforts.

Immunological screening of Lassa Virus among Health workers and Contacts of patients of Lassa fever in Ondo State

BACKGROUND

The increasing trends of morbidity and mortality of Lassa fever is becoming more alarming in Nigeria. Information about immune response to the virus is limited. At exposure, the level of immunity plays a vital role in the vulnerability of individuals infected.

OBJECTIVE

Investigating the immune status of health workers, infected cases and contacts of infected cases of Lassa fever in Ondo State.

STUDY DESIGN

Blood samples were collected from 233 individuals comprising 102 health workers, 22 infected cases and 109 contacts of infected cases from Owo and Ose Local Government Areas and transported in triple level packaging. Plasma samples were analyzed for IgG and IgM markers using ReLASV® Pan-Lassa NP IgG/IgM ELISA Kit (Zalgen Labs, LLC, USA) while RNAs extracted from IgM positive samples were analyzed for LASV RNA according to manufacturers' instructions.

RESULT

Among the health workers, 20/102 (19.6%) and 2/102 (2.0%) were IgG and IgM positive respectively. While 16/22 (72.7%) and 14/22 (63.6%) were IgG and IgM positive respectively among the infected cases. Of the contacts of infected cases screened, 64/109 (58.7%) were IgG positive while 4/109 (3.7%) were positive for IgM. There was no detectable LASV RNA in the samples analyzed.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that majority of the health workers are naïve to the virus and hence may be prone to the viral infection. It could also be suggestive that a good personal protective procedure is been practiced by the health workers, hence the low exposure. However, most of the contacts of infected cases show exposure to the virus.

Lassa Fever-associated Stigmatization among Staff and Students of the University of Benin, Nigeria

Lassa Fever (LF) remains a health burden in several endemic areas of Nigeria, and its toll remains unabated over several decades. Although most studies have focused on virological and clinical considerations, few studies have attempted to address the perceived psychosocial component of LF disease in Nigeria. Evaluation of stigmatization and discrimination faced by LF survivors is an important step in improving individual health and protecting public health. This study aimed to assess LF-associated stigmatization associated among staff and students of the University of Benin. Descriptive analyses of 600 consenting respondents (300 staff and 300 students) sampled using pretested questionnaires was conducted, and the Chi-square test was used to test for significant association between perceived LF stigmatization and predefined variables. LF was a potential cause of stigmatization in a higher proportion of student (n = 162, 57.9%) than staff (n = 112, 39.9%). LF-associated stigmatization among students was significantly associated with sex (p = 0.012) and poor knowledge (p = 0.013) of LF transmission and prevention. A greater tendency for stigmatization was observed among females than males. A comprehensive emergency response plan incorporating accurate knowledge dissemination about the disease may be a first step toward tackling perceived LF stigmatization.

Genomic Analysis of Lassa Virus during an Increase in Cases in Nigeria in 2018

During 2018, an unusual increase in Lassa fever cases occurred in Nigeria, raising concern among national and international public health agencies. We analyzed 220 Lassa virus genomes from infected patients, including 129 from the 2017-2018 transmission season, to understand the viral populations underpinning the increase. A total of 14 initial genomes from 2018 samples were generated at Redeemer's University in Nigeria, and the findings were shared with the Nigerian Center for Disease Control in real time. We found that the increase in cases was not attributable to a particular Lassa virus strain or sustained by human-to-human transmission. Instead, the data were consistent with ongoing cross-species transmission from local rodent populations. Phylogenetic analysis also revealed extensive viral diversity that was structured according to geography, with major rivers appearing to act as barriers to migration of the rodent reservoir.

Understanding the cryptic nature of Lassa fever in West Africa

Lassa fever (LF) is increasingly recognized by global health institutions as an important rodent-borne disease with severe impacts on some of West Africa's poorest communities. However, our knowledge of LF ecology, epidemiology and distribution is limited, which presents barriers to both short-term disease forecasting and prediction of long-term impacts of environmental change on Lassa virus (LASV) zoonotic transmission dynamics. Here, we synthesize current knowledge to show that extrapolations from past research have produced an incomplete picture of the incidence and distribution of LF, with negative consequences for policy planning, medical treatment and management interventions. Although the recent increase in LF case reports is likely due to improved surveillance, recent studies suggest that future socio-ecological changes in West Africa may drive increases in LF burden. Future research should focus on the geographical distribution and disease burden of LF, in order to improve its integration into public policy and disease control strategies.

Lassa Virus Seroprevalence in Sibirilia Commune, Bougouni District, Southern Mali

The high rate documented in this study highlights the need for increased surveillance.

Lassa Virus Seroprevalence, Mali

Lassa virus (LASV) is endemic to several nations in West Africa. In Mali, LASV was unknown until an exported case of Lassa fever was reported in 2009. Since that time, rodent surveys have found evidence of LASV-infected Mastomys natalensis rats in several communities in southern Mali, near the border with Côte d’Ivoire. Despite increased awareness, to date only a single case of Lassa fever has been confirmed in Mali. We conducted a survey to determine the prevalence of LASV exposure among persons in 3 villages in southern Mali where the presence of infected rodents has been documented. LASV IgG seroprevalence ranged from 14.5% to 44% per village. No sex bias was noted; however, seropositivity rates increased with participant age. These findings confirm human LASV exposure in Mali and suggest that LASV infection/Lassa fever is a potential public health concern in southern Mali.

Disease and Human/Animal Interactions

Understanding pathogen exchange among human, wildlife, and livestock populations, and the varying ecological and cultural contexts in which this exchange takes place, is a major challenge. The present review contextualizes the risk factors that result from human interactions with livestock, companion animals, animal exhibits, wildlife through nature-based tourism, and wildlife through consumption. Given their phylogenetic relatedness to humans, primates are emphasized in this discussion; primates serve as reservoirs for several human pathogens, and some human pathogens can decimate wild primate populations. Anthropologists must play a central role in understanding cultural variation in attitudes toward other species as well as perceived risks when interacting with animals. I argue that the remediation of emerging infectious diseases will be accomplished primarily through human behavioral changes rather than through efforts in pathogen discovery. Given the history of human interactions with wildlife, candid discussions on zoonotic diseases will be increasingly important for our combined survival.

Aerosol Transmission of Filoviruses

Filoviruses have become a worldwide public health concern because of their potential for introductions into non-endemic countries through international travel and the international transport of infected animals or animal products. Since it was first identified in 1976, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) and Sudan, the 2013–2015 western African Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak is the largest, both by number of cases and geographical extension, and deadliest, recorded so far in medical history. The source of ebolaviruses for human index case(s) in most outbreaks is presumptively associated with handling of bush meat or contact with fruit bats. Transmission among humans occurs easily when a person comes in contact with contaminated body fluids of patients, but our understanding of other transmission routes is still fragmentary. This review deals with the controversial issue of aerosol transmission of filoviruses.

Clinical Sequencing Uncovers Origins and Evolution of Lassa Virus

The 2013-2015 West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reminds us of how little is known about biosafety level 4 viruses. Like Ebola virus, Lassa virus (LASV) can cause hemorrhagic fever with high case fatality rates. We generated a genomic catalog of almost 200 LASV sequences from clinical and rodent reservoir samples. We show that whereas the 2013-2015 EVD epidemic is fueled by human-to-human transmissions, LASV infections mainly result from reservoir-to-human infections. We elucidated the spread of LASV across West Africa and show that this migration was accompanied by changes in LASV genome abundance, fatality rates, codon adaptation, and translational efficiency. By investigating intrahost evolution, we found that mutations accumulate in epitopes of viral surface proteins, suggesting selection for immune escape. This catalog will serve as a foundation for the development of vaccines and diagnostics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Enhanced methods for unbiased deep sequencing of Lassa and Ebola RNA viruses from clinical and biological samples

We have developed a robust RNA sequencing method for generating complete de novo assemblies with intra-host variant calls of Lassa and Ebola virus genomes in clinical and biological samples. Our method uses targeted RNase H-based digestion to remove contaminating poly(rA) carrier and ribosomal RNA. This depletion step improves both the quality of data and quantity of informative reads in unbiased total RNA sequencing libraries. We have also developed a hybrid-selection protocol to further enrich the viral content of sequencing libraries. These protocols have enabled rapid deep sequencing of both Lassa and Ebola virus and are broadly applicable to other viral genomics studies.

Enhanced methods for unbiased deep sequencing of Lassa and Ebola RNA viruses from clinical and biological samples

We have developed a robust RNA sequencing method for generating complete de novo assemblies with intra-host variant calls of Lassa and Ebola virus genomes in clinical and biological samples. Our method uses targeted RNase H-based digestion to remove contaminating poly(rA) carrier and ribosomal RNA. This depletion step improves both the quality of data and quantity of informative reads in unbiased total RNA sequencing libraries. We have also developed a hybrid-selection protocol to further enrich the viral content of sequencing libraries. These protocols have enabled rapid deep sequencing of both Lassa and Ebola virus and are broadly applicable to other viral genomics studies.

Current and emerging strategies for the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of Lassa fever

ABSTRACT 

Lassa fever (LF) is a potentially fatal disease that affects an estimated 300,000–500,000 people in endemic areas of west Africa each year. Though past studies have identified fatality rates of 5–20% in patients suspected to have contracted Lassa virus (LASV), new studies using more precise clinical diagnoses and modern diagnostic assays show fatalities rates above 60% in acutely ill patients from endemic regions. Currently, there are no approved vaccines or therapeutics, and only one Comformité Européenne (CE) marked rapid immunodiagnostic for acute LASV infection. Therefore, preventing LASV transmission is the primary goal in endemic regions. Development of rapid immunodiagnostics and research into the efficacy of current treatment options continues toward saving lives in west Africa as well as creating a line of defense against the nefarious use of LASV in bioterrorism settings.

Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa

Background

Marburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from contact between this reservoir and human populations, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission.

Methods

Index cases of previous human outbreaks were identified and reports of infection in animals recorded. These data were modelled within a species distribution modelling framework in order to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential of MVD across sub-Saharan Africa.

Results

Areas suitable for zoonotic transmission of MVD are predicted in 27 countries inhabited by 105 million people. Regions are suggested for exploratory surveys to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease, as well as for directing efforts to communicate the risk of practices enhancing zoonotic contact.

Conclusions

These maps can inform future contingency and preparedness strategies for MVD control, especially where secondary transmission is a risk. Coupling this risk map with patient travel histories could be used to guide the differential diagnosis of highly transmissible pathogens, enabling more rapid response to outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever.

Ebola virus disease: a highly fatal infectious disease reemerging in West Africa

Ebolavirus can cause a highly fatal and panic-generating human disease which may jump from bats to other mammals and human. High viral loads in body fluids allow efficient transmission by contact. Lack of effective antivirals, vaccines and public health infrastructures in parts of Africa make it difficult to health workers to contain the outbreak.

Age of Bioterrorism: Are You Prepared? Review of Bioweapons and Their Clinical Presentation for Otolaryngologists

OBJECTIVES

This review on Category A bioweapons is intended to help otolaryngologists (1) understand the concepts of bioterrorism, (2) identify a bioterrorism attack, and (3) recognize specific otolaryngologic symptoms and signs of Category A bioweapons.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Medline databases.

REVIEW METHODS

Review of current literature regarding Category A agents of biological warfare and their relationships to otolaryngology was performed using PubMed, Medline, and articles written by experts in the field of bioterrorism. Each Category A agent was paired with the term otolaryngology and then paired with epistaxis, sinusitis, airway obstruction, pharyngitis, tonsillitis, hearing loss, otitis media, and lymphadenopathy individually. For the latest accepted treatment and diagnostic strategies, bioterrorism was searched with filters for human studies, English language, and the past 5 years. Titles, abstracts, and papers were read for relevancy.

CONCLUSION

While the use of bioweapons initially leads to nonspecific symptoms, a high index of suspicion and clustering of abnormal pathology will often lead the astute physician to the correct diagnosis of bioweapons. Some disease presentations of Category A agents (anthrax, smallpox, tularemia, botulism, plague, hemorrhagic fever) will involve the realm of otolaryngology.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

The head and neck manifestations of a Category A bioweapon attack will require knowledgeable otolaryngologists for prompt diagnosis, treatment, and notification of public authorities. This will help decrease the morbidity and mortality of any potential bioterrorism attack.

Protein signatures using electrostatic molecular surfaces in harmonic space

We developed a novel method based on the Fourier analysis of protein molecular surfaces to speed up the analysis of the vast structural data generated in the post-genomic era. This method computes the power spectrum of surfaces of the molecular electrostatic potential, whose three-dimensional coordinates have been either experimentally or theoretically determined. Thus we achieve a reduction of the initial three-dimensional information on the molecular surface to the one-dimensional information on pairs of points at a fixed scale apart. Consequently, the similarity search in our method is computationally less demanding and significantly faster than shape comparison methods. As proof of principle, we applied our method to a training set of viral proteins that are involved in major diseases such as Hepatitis C, Dengue fever, Yellow fever, Bovine viral diarrhea and West Nile fever. The training set contains proteins of four different protein families, as well as a mammalian representative enzyme. We found that the power spectrum successfully assigns a unique signature to each protein included in our training set, thus providing a direct probe of functional similarity among proteins. The results agree with established biological data from conventional structural biochemistry analyses.

Current progress with serological assays for exotic emerging/re-emerging viruses

Recent decades have witnessed an unprecedented rise in the outbreak occurrence of infectious and primarily zoonotic viruses. Contributing factors to this phenomenon include heightened global connectivity via air travel and international trade links, as well as man-made environmental alterations, such as deforestation and climate change, which all serve to bring humans into closer contact with animal reservoirs and alter the habitat of vectors, thus facilitating the transmission of viruses between species. Serological assays are integral to tracking the epidemiological spread of a virus and evaluating mass vaccination programs by quantifying neutralizing antibody responses raised against antigenic epitopes on the viral surface. However, conventional serological tests are somewhat marred by equipment and reagent costs, the necessity for high-containment laboratories for studying many emerging viruses, and interlaboratory variability, among other issues. This review details ‘next-generation’ assays aimed at addressing some of the persistent problems with viral serology, focusing on how manipulating the genomes of RNA viruses can produce attenuated or chimeric viruses that can be exploited as surrogate viruses in neutralization assays. Despite the undoubted promise of such novel serological platforms, it must be remembered that these assays have to withstand rigorous validation and standardization measures before they can play an integral role in curtailing the severity of future emerging virus outbreaks.