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Ronco M, Tárraga JM, Muñoz J, Piles M, Marco ES, Wang Q, Espinosa MTM, Ponserre S, Camps-Valls G. Exploring interactions between socioeconomic context and natural hazards on human population displacement. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8004. [PMID: 38049446 PMCID: PMC10695951 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43809-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2022] [Accepted: 11/20/2023] [Indexed: 12/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change is leading to more extreme weather hazards, forcing human populations to be displaced. We employ explainable machine learning techniques to model and understand internal displacement flows and patterns from observational data alone. For this purpose, a large, harmonized, global database of disaster-induced movements in the presence of floods, storms, and landslides during 2016-2021 is presented. We account for environmental, societal, and economic factors to predict the number of displaced persons per event in the affected regions. Here we show that displacements can be primarily attributed to the combination of poor household conditions and intense precipitation, as revealed through the interpretation of the trained models using both Shapley values and causality-based methods. We hence provide empirical evidence that differential or uneven vulnerability exists and provide a means for its quantification, which could help advance evidence-based mitigation and adaptation planning efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michele Ronco
- Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain.
| | - José María Tárraga
- Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - Jordi Muñoz
- Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - María Piles
- Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain
| | | | - Qiang Wang
- Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain
| | | | - Sylvain Ponserre
- Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Gustau Camps-Valls
- Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain
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2
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Theokritoff E, van Maanen N, Andrijevic M, Thomas A, Lissner T, Schleussner CF. Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development. Sci Rep 2023; 13:19604. [PMID: 38001095 PMCID: PMC10673845 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-46931-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 11/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change adaptation is paramount, but increasing evidence suggests that adaptation action is subject to a range of constraints. For a realistic assessment of future adaptation prospects, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome these constraints. Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios. We find that even in the most optimistic scenario, it will take until well after 2050 to overcome key constraints, which will limit adaptation for decades to come particularly in vulnerable countries. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our approach allows to ground truth indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts, improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Theokritoff
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.
- Geography Department & IRI THESys, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Nicole van Maanen
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- Geography Department & IRI THESys, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Marina Andrijevic
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Adelle Thomas
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- University of The Bahamas, Nassau, Bahamas
| | | | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- Geography Department & IRI THESys, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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3
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Lloyd SJ, Quijal-Zamorano M, Achebak H, Hajat S, Muttarak R, Striessnig E, Ballester J. The Direct and Indirect Influences of Interrelated Regional-Level Sociodemographic Factors on Heat-Attributable Mortality in Europe: Insights for Adaptation Strategies. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:87013. [PMID: 37606292 PMCID: PMC10443201 DOI: 10.1289/ehp11766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Revised: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heat is a significant cause of mortality, but impact patterns are heterogenous. Previous studies assessing such heterogeneity focused exclusively on risk rather than heat-attributable mortality burdens and assume predictors are independent. OBJECTIVES We assessed how four interrelated regional-level sociodemographic predictors-education, life expectancy, the ratio of older to younger people (aging index), and relative income-influence heterogeneity in heat-attributable mortality burdens in Europe and then derived insights into adaptation strategies. METHODS We extracted four outcomes from a temperature-mortality study covering 16 European countries: the rate of increase in mortality risk at moderate and extreme temperatures (moderate and extreme slope, respectively), the minimum mortality temperature percentile (MMTP), and the underlying mortality rate. We used structural equation modeling with country-level random effects to quantify the direct and indirect influences of the predictors on the outcomes. RESULTS Higher levels of education were directly associated with lower heat-related mortality at moderate and extreme temperatures via lower slopes and higher MMTPs. A one standard deviation increase in education was associated with a - 0.46 ± 0.14 , - 0.41 ± 0.12 , and 0.41 ± 0.12 standard deviation (± standard error ) change in the moderate slope, extreme slope, and MMTP, respectively. However, education had mixed indirect influences via associations with life expectancy, the aging index, and relative income. Higher life expectancy had mixed relations with heat-related mortality, being associated with higher risk at moderate temperatures (0.33 ± 0.11 for the moderate slope; - 0.19 ± 0.097 for the MMTP) but lower underlying mortality rates (- 0.72 ± 0.097 ). A higher aging index was associated with higher burdens through higher risk at extreme temperatures (0.13 ± 0.072 for the extreme slope) and higher underlying mortality rates (0.93 ± 0.055 ). Relative income had relatively small, mixed influences. DISCUSSION Our novel approach provided insights into actions for reducing the health impacts of heat. First, the results show the interrelations between possible vulnerability-generating mechanisms and suggest future research directions. Second, the findings point to the need for a dual approach to adaptation, with actions that explicitly target heat exposure reduction and actions focused explicitly on the root causes of vulnerability. For the latter, the climate crisis may be leveraged to accelerate ongoing general public health programs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11766.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon J Lloyd
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marcos Quijal-Zamorano
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Hicham Achebak
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Raya Muttarak
- Department of Statistical Sciences "Paolo Fortunati", University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | | | - Joan Ballester
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
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4
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Neurohr AL, Pasch N, Otto S, Möller A. Measuring adolescents' level of interest in nature: a promising psychological factor facilitating nature protection. Front Psychol 2023; 14:1186557. [PMID: 37416546 PMCID: PMC10321522 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1186557] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 07/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Studies indicate that young people are more prepared to engage in pro-environmental behavior if they are interested in nature and recognize it as worthy of protection. However, a reliable instrument to measure adolescents' interest in nature is still lacking. Therefore, we developed a new metric, the Scale of Interest in Nature (SIN). It consists of 18 items, is based on Item-Response-Theory and was validated using the known group approach (N = 351 adolescents). Results indicate that adolescents' interest in nature correlates positively with their connection with nature, their intention to preserve nature and engagement in pro-environmental activities in their free time. Bivariate Pearson correlations between the SIN and the Connectedness to Nature Scale (INS), as well as the Environmental Values model (2-MEV) demonstrated the scale's construct validity. Hence, the SIN scale provides an economical way to measure adolescents' interest in nature in research contexts or environmental and sustainability education settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna-Lena Neurohr
- Austrian Educational Competence Centre for Biology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Nadine Pasch
- Biology Education, University of Trier, Trier, Germany
| | - Siegmar Otto
- Department of Sustainable Development and Change, University of Hohenheim, Hohenheim, Germany
| | - Andrea Möller
- Austrian Educational Competence Centre for Biology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Life Sciences, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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5
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Md. Akhir N, Wei Lun A, Mee Yeang C, Abd Rahman N, Halim L. Establishing the value-psychological-educational dimensions for “learning to action” model for pro-environmental behaviour. COGENT EDUCATION 2022; 9. [DOI: 10.1080/2331186x.2022.2156748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 12/06/2022] [Indexed: 09/02/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Noremy Md. Akhir
- Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
| | - Ang Wei Lun
- Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
| | - Chan Mee Yeang
- Faculty of Education, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
| | | | - Lilia Halim
- Faculty of Education, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
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6
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Climate Change Education Challenges from Two Different Perspectives of Change Agents: Perceptions of School Students and Pre-Service Teachers. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14106081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
Climate change education (CCE) can play an essential role in pushing forward a climate-just transition. However, educational institutions seem to be challenged to equip students and their prospective teachers with what is necessary for them to become multipliers for climate action. This study aims to provide actionable insights on how to harness the untapped potential of CCE, overcome obstacles, and draw conclusions on which adaptations are necessary to improve current CCE settings. We conducted a qualitative questionnaire study using the example of 80 secondary school students (grade 12) and 18 pre-service teachers (PSTs). The results indicated that both cohorts feel inadequately prepared for their role as possible “change agents”, stating that climate change as a topic is given too little time, engagement with practical examples on taking climate action is inadequate, and a superficial examination of the topic takes place. Students as well as PSTs as change agents are not sufficiently supported by educational institutions to exercise their transformative potential due to numerous identified challenges that have to be confronted at a systemic level. Results indicate that especially teacher training programs need to increasingly focus on the professional development of educators in this field.
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The (Un)political Perspective on Climate Change in Education—A Systematic Review. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14074194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Mitigating and adapting to climate change requires foundational changes in societies, politics, and economies. Greater effectiveness has been attributed to actions in the public sphere than to the actions of individuals. However, little is known about how climate literacy programs address the political aspects of mitigation and adaptation. The aim of this systematic literature review is to fill this gap and analyze how public-sphere actions on mitigation and adaptation are discussed in climate literacy programs in schools. Based on database searches following PRISMA guidelines we identified 75 empirical studies that met our inclusion criteria. We found that central aspects of climate policy such as the 1.5-degree limit, the IPCC reports, or climate justice are rarely addressed. Whilst responsibility for emissions is attributed to the public sphere, the debate about mitigation usually focuses on the private sphere. Climate change education does not, therefore, correspond to the climate research discourse. We show that effective mitigation and adaptation are based on public-sphere actions and thus conclude that effective climate education should discuss those public actions if it is to be effective. Hence, we propose that climate education should incorporate political literacy to educate climate-literate citizens.
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8
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Wang Q, Niu G, Gan X, Cai Q. Green returns to education: Does education affect pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors in China? PLoS One 2022; 17:e0263383. [PMID: 35113928 PMCID: PMC8812898 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2021] [Accepted: 01/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Using microdata from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2010), this paper investigates whether there are green returns to education in China, where educational attainment promotes pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors. We establish causality by exploiting the exogenous variation induced by the implementation of the Compulsory Schooling Law (CSL) in China. We find evidence that educational attainment is associated with higher levels of pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors, and these estimates are robust to various robustness checks. Further analysis reveals that the acquisition of environmental knowledge is the channel that drives the effect of education on pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors. Finally, the effects of education are heterogeneous across individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi Wang
- Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China
| | - Geng Niu
- Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China
| | - Xu Gan
- School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, P.R. China
- * E-mail:
| | - Qiaoling Cai
- Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China
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Abstract
The human population is at the centre of research on global environmental change. On the one hand, population dynamics influence the environment and the global climate system through consumption-based carbon emissions. On the other hand, the health and well-being of the population are already being affected by climate change. A knowledge of population dynamics and population heterogeneity is thus fundamental to improving our understanding of how population size, composition, and distribution influence global environmental change and how these changes affect population subgroups differentially by demographic characteristics and spatial distribution. The increasing relevance of demographic research on the topic, coupled with availability of theoretical concepts and advancement in data and computing facilities, has contributed to growing engagement of demographers in this field. In the past 25 years, demographic research has enriched climate change research-with the key contribution being in moving beyond the narrow view that population matters only in terms of population size-by putting a greater emphasis on population composition and distribution, through presenting both empirical evidence and advanced population forecasting to account for demographic and spatial heterogeneity. What remains missing in the literature is research that investigates how global environmental change affects current and future demographic processes and, consequently, population trends. If global environmental change does influence fertility, mortality, and migration, then population estimates and forecasts need to adjust for climate feedback in population projections. Indisputably, this is the area of new research that directly requires expertise in population science and contribution from demographers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raya Muttarak
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna)
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10
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Andrade LDMB, Guedes GR, Noronha KVMDS, Santos e Silva CM, Andrade JP, Martins ASFS. Health-related vulnerability to climate extremes in homoclimatic zones of Amazonia and Northeast region of Brazil. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0259780. [PMID: 34762688 PMCID: PMC8584767 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259780] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Accepted: 10/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Amazonia and the Northeast region of Brazil exhibit the highest levels of climate vulnerability in the country. While Amazonia is characterized by an extremely hot and humid climate and hosts the world largest rainforest, the Northeast is home to sharp climatic contrasts, ranging from rainy areas along the coast to semiarid regions that are often affected by droughts. Both regions are subject to extremely high temperatures and are susceptible to many tropical diseases. This study develops a multidimensional Extreme Climate Vulnerability Index (ECVI) for Brazilian Amazonia and the Northeast region based on the Alkire-Foster method. Vulnerability is defined by three components, encompassing exposure (proxied by seven climate extreme indicators), susceptibility (proxied by sociodemographic indicators), and adaptive capacity (proxied by sanitation conditions, urbanization rate, and healthcare provision). In addition to the estimated vulnerability levels and intensity, we break down the ECVI by indicators, dimensions, and regions, in order to explore how the incidence levels of climate-sensitive infectious and parasitic diseases correlate with regional vulnerability. We use the Grade of Membership method to reclassify the mesoregions into homoclimatic zones based on extreme climatic events, so climate and population/health data can be analyzed at comparable resolutions. We find two homoclimatic zones: Extreme Rain (ER) and Extreme Drought and High Temperature (ED-HT). Vulnerability is higher in the ED-HT areas than in the ER. The contribution of each dimension to overall vulnerability levels varies by homoclimatic zone. In the ER zone, adaptive capacity (39%) prevails as the main driver of vulnerability among the three dimensions, in contrast with the approximately even dimensional contribution in the ED-HT. When we compare areas by disease incidence levels, exposure emerges as the most influential dimension. Our results suggest that climate can exacerbate existing infrastructure deficiencies and socioeconomic conditions that are correlated with tropical disease incidence in impoverished areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lara de Melo Barbosa Andrade
- Department of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
| | - Gilvan Ramalho Guedes
- Departament of Demography, Center for Development and Regional Planning, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brasil
| | | | - Cláudio Moisés Santos e Silva
- Department of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
| | - Jéferson Pereira Andrade
- Departament de Statistics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brasil
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Haq IU, Mehmood Z, Khan N, Khan MN, Israr M, Ali Khan E, Nisar M, Ahmad MI, Ali M. Risk Factors of Mid-upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Based Child Malnutrition in the Flood-affected Areas of Pakistan: A Cross-sectional Study. Ecol Food Nutr 2021; 60:491-507. [PMID: 33472422 DOI: 10.1080/03670244.2021.1872024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
Low- and middle-income countries are usually at high risk of malnutrition. Not only that but the prevalence of malnutrition is much higher. It is important to evaluate the determinants of malnutrition in flood-affected areas of Pakistan. The present study examined the prevalence and risk factors of MUAC-based child malnutrition in flood-hit regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Multi-stage sampling was employed to select 656 households. Finally, 298 children of 6-59 months were selected. MUAC, an independent anthropometric parameter, was used to investigate the nutritional status of children. An automated logistic regression model was used to identify the risk factors of MUAC-based malnutrition. The prevalence of MUAC-based malnutrition was found 46%, including 40.5% females and 52.1% males. More than 90% of people had improved water quality and soap hand washing facility. Almost 17% of respondents had no toilet facility. Through automated logistic model, child age, maternal age, family size, income level, mother education, water quality, toilet facility were the significant determinants (P < .05) of MUAC-based undernutrition in flood affecting the area. The findings suggest that MUAC-based malnutrition can be minimized in flood-hit areas by targeting the listed risk factors. Community-based awareness programs regarding guidance on nutrition might be a key to reducing malnutrition in the target areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ijaz Ul Haq
- School of Food Science, Jiangsu Food & Pharmaceutical Science College, Jiangsu, Huai'an, China.,Department of Public Health and Nutrition, University of Haripur, Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - Zafar Mehmood
- School of Food Science, Jiangsu Food & Pharmaceutical Science College, Jiangsu, Huai'an, China.,Department of Math's, Stats & Computer Science, the University of Agriculture Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - Nadar Khan
- Department of Animal Nutrition, The University of Agriculture Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Nadeem Khan
- Department of Medicine, Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Israr
- Department of Ophthalmology, Hayatabad Medical Complex, Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - Ejaz Ali Khan
- Institue of Nursing Sciences, Khyber Medical University Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Nisar
- Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, Cholistan University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Ijaz Ahmad
- College of Food Science and Technology, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Majid Ali
- Department of Health Policy, School of Health Policy and Management, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
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12
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Dimitrova A, Ingole V, Basagaña X, Ranzani O, Milà C, Ballester J, Tonne C. Association between ambient temperature and heat waves with mortality in South Asia: Systematic review and meta-analysis. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2021; 146:106170. [PMID: 33395923 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2020] [Revised: 09/16/2020] [Accepted: 09/26/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND South Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change and is projected to experience some of the highest increases in average annual temperatures throughout the century. Although the adverse impacts of ambient temperature on human health have been extensively documented in the literature, only a limited number of studies have focused on populations in this region. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to systematically review the current state and quality of available evidence on the direct relationship between ambient temperature and heat waves and all-cause mortality in South Asia. METHODS The databases Pubmed, Web of Science, Scopus and Embase were searched from 1990 to 2020 for relevant observational quantitative studies. We applied the Navigation Guide methodology to assess the strength of the evidence and performed a meta-analysis based on a novel approach that allows for combining nonlinear exposure-response associations without access to data from individual studies. RESULTS From the 6,759 screened papers, 27 were included in the qualitative synthesis and five in a meta-analysis. Studies reported an association of all-cause mortality with heat wave episodes and both high and low daily temperatures. The meta-analysis showed a U-shaped pattern, with increasing mortality for both high and low temperatures, but a statistically significant association was found only at higher temperatures - above 31° C for lag 0-1 days and above 34° C for lag 0-13 days. Effects were found to vary with cause of death, age, sex, location (urban vs. rural), level of education and socio-economic status, but the profile of vulnerabilities was somewhat inconsistent and based on a limited number of studies. Overall, the strength of the evidence for ambient temperature as a risk factor for all-cause mortality was judged as limited and for heat wave episodes as inadequate. CONCLUSIONS The evidence base on temperature impacts on mortality in South Asia is limited due to the small number of studies, their skewed geographical distribution and methodological weaknesses. Understanding the main determinants of the temperature-mortality association as well as how these may evolve in the future in a dynamic region such as South Asia will be an important area for future research. Studies on viable adaptation options to high temperatures for a region that is a hotspot for climate vulnerability, urbanisation and population growth are also needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asya Dimitrova
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona Biomedical Research Park (PRBB), Doctor Aiguader, 88, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Plaça de la Mercè, 10, 08002 Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Avda. Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid, Spain
| | - Vijendra Ingole
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona Biomedical Research Park (PRBB), Doctor Aiguader, 88, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Avda. Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid, Spain
| | - Xavier Basagaña
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona Biomedical Research Park (PRBB), Doctor Aiguader, 88, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Plaça de la Mercè, 10, 08002 Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Avda. Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid, Spain
| | - Otavio Ranzani
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona Biomedical Research Park (PRBB), Doctor Aiguader, 88, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Avda. Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid, Spain
| | - Carles Milà
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona Biomedical Research Park (PRBB), Doctor Aiguader, 88, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Avda. Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid, Spain
| | - Joan Ballester
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona Biomedical Research Park (PRBB), Doctor Aiguader, 88, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Avda. Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid, Spain
| | - Cathryn Tonne
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona Biomedical Research Park (PRBB), Doctor Aiguader, 88, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Plaça de la Mercè, 10, 08002 Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Avda. Monforte de Lemos 3-5, Madrid, Spain.
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von Borries R, Guinto R, Thomson DJ, Abia WA, Lowe R. Planting sustainable seeds in young minds: the need to teach planetary health to children. Lancet Planet Health 2020; 4:e501-e502. [PMID: 33159873 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(20)30241-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2020] [Accepted: 09/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Rosa von Borries
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin 10117, Germany.
| | - Renzo Guinto
- PH Lab, Manila, Philippines; St Luke's Medical Center College of Medicine - William H Quasha Memorial, Quezon City, Philippines
| | | | - Wilfred A Abia
- International One Health for One Planet Education Initiative Africa, Integrated Health for All Foundation, Cameroon; Yaoundé I University, Yaoundé, Cameroon; Institute for Global Food Security, Advanced ASSET Centre, School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
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14
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Learning is inhibited by heat exposure, both internationally and within the United States. Nat Hum Behav 2020; 5:19-27. [PMID: 33020588 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-00959-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2019] [Accepted: 08/27/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Human capital generally, and cognitive skills specifically, play a crucial role in determining economic mobility and macroeconomic growth. While elevated temperatures have been shown to impair short-run cognitive performance, much less is known about whether heat exposure affects the rate of skill formation. We combine standardized achievement data for 58 countries and 12,000 US school districts with detailed weather and academic calendar information to show that the rate of learning decreases with an increase in the number of hot school days. These results provide evidence that climatic differences may contribute to differences in educational achievement both across countries and within countries by socioeconomic status and that may have important implications for the magnitude and functional form of climate damages in coupled human-natural systems.
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15
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Sellers S. Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways. CLIMATIC CHANGE 2020; 163:559-577. [PMID: 32863481 PMCID: PMC7443177 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02824-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2019] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Climate change will create numerous risks for human health, including impacts associated with temperature extremes, diarrheal diseases, and undernutrition. Such risks, along with other socioeconomic and development trends, will affect cause-of-death patterns experienced in the coming decades. This study explores future mortality trends using the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) framework, a widely utilized tool for understanding socioeconomic development trends in a world with climate change. Existing projections for GDP, urbanization, and demographic trends based on SSP narratives are incorporated into an integrated assessment model, International Futures (IFs), in order to project mortality levels by cause of death for all countries from 2020 to 2100. Under more optimistic SSPs, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) rise as a proportion of all deaths, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, while more pessimistic SSPs suggest a continued high burden of largely preventable communicable diseases. In high-income countries, significant continued burdens of NCDs are projected for the remainder of the century under all SSPs. Comparisons are also made to recent cause-of-death projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to assess how the IFs and IHME models vary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel Sellers
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
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16
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Preparing Adolescents for the Uncertain Future: Concepts, Tools and Strategies for Teaching Anthropogenic Environmental Change. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12176832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Humankind is increasingly being challenged by anthropogenic environmental changes and society needs to be better equipped with knowledge, skills and values to adapt to these changes. This poses new challenges for school education. We propose a framework towards future-oriented education by addressing three issues: a) How can the school curriculum be reframed to take account of anthropogenic environmental changes? b) What difficulties do students encounter when learning about these changes? c) What learning tools and pedagogical strategies are best suited to effectively and efficiently teach about environmental changes? An example is provided, whereby secondary school students engage with the topic of deforestation using geospatial technology. This study informs curriculum makers and instructors in providing education that enhances adolescents’ understanding of the uncertain world and increases their ability to be proactive, rather than merely responding to change.
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17
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Using Disaster Outcomes to Validate Components of Social Vulnerability to Floods: Flood Deaths and Property Damage across the USA. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12156006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Social vulnerability indicators seek to identify populations susceptible to hazards based on aggregated sociodemographic data. Vulnerability indices are rarely validated with disaster outcome data at broad spatial scales, making it difficult to develop effective national scale strategies to mitigate loss for vulnerable populations. This paper validates social vulnerability indicators using two flood outcomes: death and damage. Regression models identify sociodemographic factors associated with variation in outcomes from 11,629 non-coastal flood events in the USA (2008–2012), controlling for flood intensity using stream gauge data. We compare models with (i) socioeconomic variables, (ii) the composite social vulnerability index (SoVI), and (iii) flood intensity variables only. The SoVI explains a larger portion of the variance in death (AIC = 2829) and damage (R2 = 0.125) than flood intensity alone (death—AIC = 2894; damage—R2 = 0.089), and models with individual sociodemographic factors perform best (death—AIC = 2696; damage—R2 = 0.229). Socioeconomic variables correlated with death (rural counties with a high proportion of elderly and young) differ from those related to property damage (rural counties with high percentage of Black, Hispanic and Native American populations below the poverty line). Results confirm that social vulnerability influences death and damage from floods in the USA. Model results indicate that social vulnerability models related to specific hazards and outcomes perform better than generic social vulnerability indices (e.g., SoVI) in predicting non-coastal flood death and damage. Hazard- and outcome-specific indices could be used to better direct efforts to ameliorate flood death and damage towards the people and places that need it most. Future validation studies should examine other flood outcomes, such as evacuation, migration and health, across scales.
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Hosseinzadehtalaei P, Tabari H, Willems P. Satellite-based data driven quantification of pluvial floods over Europe under future climatic and socioeconomic changes. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 721:137688. [PMID: 32172108 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137688] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2019] [Revised: 02/20/2020] [Accepted: 03/01/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Flooding is one of the major threats jeopardizing lives and properties of the people, and its risk is expected to increase remarkably under changing climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Yet, future flood risk has not been well studied due primarily to a limited availability of detailed and consistent data on future vulnerability components and the computationally expensive continental flood modeling. Here we perform a top-down data driven flood risk assessment for 20-, 30-, 50- and 100-year return periods over Europe at the continental, regional and national levels for the late 21st century. To account for the impact of changes in both climatic and socioeconomic conditions on floods, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are merged with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), integrating hazard and several social, economic and agricultural exposure-vulnerability proxy indicators. Our results show a ubiquitous drastic increase up to 87% in future flood risks of different return periods over Europe, with eastern and southern regions experiencing the highest risk increase. A fossil-fuel based development in the future would lead to 14-15% higher flood risk compared to a sustainable development, which goes up to 23% in north Europe. The amplified future flood risk is predominantly driven by climate change, although with a large uncertainty, rather than socioeconomic drivers.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Hossein Tabari
- KU Leuven, Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, Belgium
| | - Patrick Willems
- KU Leuven, Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, Belgium; Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Belgium
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19
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Abstract
We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today. All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.
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20
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Education and Disaster Vulnerability in Southeast Asia: Evidence and Policy Implications. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12041401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This article summarizes the growing theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of education on disaster vulnerability with a focus on Southeast Asia. Education and learning can take place in different environments in more or less formalized ways. They can influence disaster vulnerability as the capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from natural hazard in direct and indirect ways. Directly, through education and learning, individuals acquire knowledge, abilities, skills and perceptions that allow them to effectively prepare for and cope with the consequences of disaster shocks. Indirectly, education gives individuals and households access to material, informational and social resources, which can help reducing disaster vulnerability. We highlight central concepts and terminologies and discuss the different theoretical mechanisms through which education may have an impact. Supportive empirical evidence is presented and discussed with a particular focus on the role of inclusiveness in education and challenges in achieving universal access to high-quality education. Based on situation analysis and best practice cases, policy implications are derived that can inform the design and implementation of education and learning-based disaster risk reduction efforts in the region.
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21
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Abstract
Achieving a rapid global decarbonization to stabilize the climate critically depends on activating contagious and fast-spreading processes of social and technological change within the next few years. Drawing on expert elicitation, an expert workshop, and a review of literature, which provides a comprehensive analysis on this topic, we propose concrete interventions to induce positive social tipping dynamics and a rapid global transformation to carbon-neutral societies. These social tipping interventions comprise removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation, building carbon-neutral cities, divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels, revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels, strengthening climate education and engagement, and disclosing greenhouse gas emissions information. Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
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Thiault L, Gelcich S, Cinner JE, Tapia‐Lewin S, Chlous F, Claudet J. Generic and specific facets of vulnerability for analysing trade‐offs and synergies in natural resource management. PEOPLE AND NATURE 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/pan3.10056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Lauric Thiault
- National Center for Scientific ResearchPSL Université ParisCRIOBEUSR 3278 CNRS‐EPHE‐UPVD Paris France
- Laboratoire d’Excellence CORAIL Moorea French Polynesia
- Museum National d’Histoire NaturellePALOCUMR208 MNHN‐IRD Paris France
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES) and Center for the Study of Multiple‐Drivers on Marine Socio‐Ecological Systems (MUSELS) Facultad de Ciencias Biologicas Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Santiago Chile
| | - Stefan Gelcich
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES) and Center for the Study of Multiple‐Drivers on Marine Socio‐Ecological Systems (MUSELS) Facultad de Ciencias Biologicas Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Santiago Chile
| | - Joshua E. Cinner
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
| | - Sebastian Tapia‐Lewin
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management University of California Santa Barbara CA USA
| | - Frédérique Chlous
- Museum National d’Histoire NaturellePALOCUMR208 MNHN‐IRD Paris France
| | - Joachim Claudet
- National Center for Scientific ResearchPSL Université ParisCRIOBEUSR 3278 CNRS‐EPHE‐UPVD Paris France
- Laboratoire d’Excellence CORAIL Moorea French Polynesia
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Abstract
Climate change may negatively impact education among children via exposure to extreme temperature and precipitation conditions. We link census data from 29 countries across the global tropics to high-resolution gridded climate data to understand how climatic conditions experienced in utero and during early childhood affect educational attainment at ages 12 to 16. We show that exposure to higher-than-average temperatures during the prenatal and early-life period is associated with fewer years of schooling in Southeast Asia. In this region, a child who experiences temperatures 2 SDs above average is predicted to attain 1.5 fewer years of schooling than one who experiences average temperatures. In addition, early-life rainfall is positively correlated with attainment in West and Central Africa as well as Southeast Asia, and negatively correlated with attainment in Central America and the Caribbean. While we expected that children from the most educated households would be buffered from these effects, we discover that they tend to experience the greatest educational penalties when exposed to hotter early-life conditions and, in some regions, to drier conditions. For example, among the most educated households in West and Central Africa, predicted schooling is 1.8 years lower for children who experience early-life rainfall 2 SDs below average versus 2 SDs above average, while the difference is just 0.8 years for children from the least educated households. These results suggest that development and educational gains in the tropics could be undermined by climate change, even for better-off households.
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Abstract
Disasters triggered by hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, droughts, and cyclones, pose significant impediments to sustainable development efforts in the most vulnerable and exposed countries. Mainstreaming disaster risk is hence seen as an important global agenda as reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015–2030. Yet, conventional development indicators remain largely negligent of the potential setbacks that may be posed by disaster risk. This article discusses the need to reflect disaster risk in development indicators and proposes a concept disaster risk-adjusted human development index (RHDI) as an example. Globally available national-level datasets of disaster risk to public and private assets (including health, educational facilities, and private housing) is combined with an estimate of expenditure on health, education, and capital formation to construct an RHDI. The RHDI is then analyzed across various regions and HDI groups, and contrasted with other HDI variants including inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI) and the gender-specific female HDI (FHDI) to identify groups of countries where transformational disaster risk reduction (DRR) approaches may be necessary.
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25
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Shah SH, Wagner CH, Sanga U, Park H, Demange LHMDL, Gueiros C, Niles MT. Does Household Capital Mediate the Uptake of Agricultural Land, Crop, and Livestock Adaptations? Evidence From the Indo-Gangetic Plains (India). FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS 2019. [DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2019.00001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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26
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Muttarak R. Too few nutrients and too many calories: climate change and the double burden of malnutrition in Asia. ASIAN POPULATION STUDIES 2018. [DOI: 10.1080/17441730.2018.1543960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Raya Muttarak
- School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
- Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW and WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
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27
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Zavaleta C, Berrang-Ford L, Ford J, Llanos-Cuentas A, Cárcamo C, Ross NA, Lancha G, Sherman M, Harper SL. Multiple non-climatic drivers of food insecurity reinforce climate change maladaptation trajectories among Peruvian Indigenous Shawi in the Amazon. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0205714. [PMID: 30325951 PMCID: PMC6191111 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0205714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2018] [Accepted: 10/01/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories. METHODS AND FINDINGS Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions. CONCLUSION A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carol Zavaleta
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Facultad de Salud Pública, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú
- * E-mail:
| | - Lea Berrang-Ford
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - James Ford
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - César Cárcamo
- Facultad de Salud Pública, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú
| | - Nancy A. Ross
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Mya Sherman
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Sherilee L. Harper
- Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada
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29
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Steffen W, Rockström J, Richardson K, Lenton TM, Folke C, Liverman D, Summerhayes CP, Barnosky AD, Cornell SE, Crucifix M, Donges JF, Fetzer I, Lade SJ, Scheffer M, Winkelmann R, Schellnhuber HJ. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115:8252-8259. [PMID: 30082409 PMCID: PMC6099852 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 435] [Impact Index Per Article: 72.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
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Affiliation(s)
- Will Steffen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden;
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Johan Rockström
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Katherine Richardson
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Natural History Museum of Denmark, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Timothy M Lenton
- Earth System Science Group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, EX4 4QE Exeter, United Kingdom
| | - Carl Folke
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
- The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Science, SE-10405 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Diana Liverman
- School of Geography and Development, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
| | - Colin P Summerhayes
- Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge University, CB2 1ER Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Anthony D Barnosky
- Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Sarah E Cornell
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Michel Crucifix
- Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
- Belgian National Fund of Scientific Research, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Jonathan F Donges
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
- Research Domain Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ingo Fetzer
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Steven J Lade
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Ricarda Winkelmann
- Research Domain Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden;
- Research Domain Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
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Scovronick N, Budolfson MB, Dennig F, Fleurbaey M, Siebert A, Socolow RH, Spears D, Wagner F. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:12338-12343. [PMID: 29087298 PMCID: PMC5699025 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1618308114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noah Scovronick
- Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
| | - Mark B Budolfson
- Department of Philosophy, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405
| | | | - Marc Fleurbaey
- Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
- Center for Human Values, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Asher Siebert
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
| | - Robert H Socolow
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
| | - Dean Spears
- Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
- Economics and Planning Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi, India, 110016
| | - Fabian Wagner
- Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
- Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria A-2361
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31
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Global Sustainable Development priorities 500 y after Luther: Sola schola et sanitate. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017. [PMID: 28630291 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1702609114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Martin Luther succinctly summarized his theology in sola statements, such as sola scriptura, viewing the Bible (scriptura) as the only valid source of information about God rather than what he viewed as the extraneous, corrupting church doctrine of the time. As a secular side effect of this focus on individual reading skills, the Protestant territories were the first to acquire high literacy rates, which subsequently fostered health, economic growth, and good governance. Here I argue that a similar priority focus on empowerment of all segments of all populations through education and health (sola schola et sanitate) is needed today for sustainable development. According to decades of research, education and health are essential prerequisites for ending poverty and hunger, for improving institutions and participation in society, for voluntary fertility declines and ending world population growth, for changing behavior and adoption of new and clean technologies, and for enhancing adaptive capacity to already unavoidable climate change. This approach avoids paternalistic imposition of development policies by focusing external aid on enabling people to help themselves, their families, and communities. Prioritizing education and health also helps move more industrialized, aging societies from a focus on material consumption to one on quality of life. Sola schola et sanitate suggests that well-being will increasingly be based on health, continued mental stimulation, and consumption of cultural products, rather than fossil fuels and materials. Thus, cognition-or brain power-can be viewed as the zero-emissions energy for sustainable development.
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Data Integration for Climate Vulnerability Mapping in West Africa. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2015. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi4042561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Watts N, Adger WN, Agnolucci P, Blackstock J, Byass P, Cai W, Chaytor S, Colbourn T, Collins M, Cooper A, Cox PM, Depledge J, Drummond P, Ekins P, Galaz V, Grace D, Graham H, Grubb M, Haines A, Hamilton I, Hunter A, Jiang X, Li M, Kelman I, Liang L, Lott M, Lowe R, Luo Y, Mace G, Maslin M, Nilsson M, Oreszczyn T, Pye S, Quinn T, Svensdotter M, Venevsky S, Warner K, Xu B, Yang J, Yin Y, Yu C, Zhang Q, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. Lancet 2015; 386:1861-914. [PMID: 26111439 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60854-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 740] [Impact Index Per Article: 82.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - W Neil Adger
- Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Paolo Agnolucci
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jason Blackstock
- Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, University College London, London, UK
| | - Peter Byass
- Centre for Global Health Research, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Sarah Chaytor
- Public Policy, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tim Colbourn
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Mat Collins
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Adam Cooper
- Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, University College London, London, UK
| | - Peter M Cox
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Joanna Depledge
- Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Victor Galaz
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Delia Grace
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Michael Grubb
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Andy Haines
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Alasdair Hunter
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Xujia Jiang
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Moxuan Li
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lu Liang
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert Lowe
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Yong Luo
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Georgina Mace
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Centre for Global Health Research, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | | | - Steve Pye
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tara Quinn
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - My Svensdotter
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sergey Venevsky
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Koko Warner
- UN University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany
| | - Bing Xu
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Yang
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Yongyuan Yin
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Chaoqing Yu
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Qiang Zhang
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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