Quantitative approach for assessing risks and benefits to the supply of ecosystem services in response to human activities

Escalating human activities threaten ecosystems and the benefits they provide, known as ecosystem services (ES). Despite the recognized importance of ES for both ecological health and human well-being, integrated methods for evaluating ES within decision-making frameworks remain limited. Current environmental assessments, such as ecological risk assessment (ERA), typically focus on risks to specific endpoints such as survival, growth and reproduction of test species without capturing broader ecosystem risks and benefits. This study introduces a novel method designed to quantitatively assess risks and benefits to ES supply by integrating ES as assessment endpoints within ERA. Using cumulative distribution functions, we establish risk and benefit thresholds and calculate the probability and magnitude of exceeding these following human interventions. The method was tested by quantifying risk and benefit metrics for a regulating ES, waste remediation, in three marine offshore case studies: an existing offshore wind farm, a hypothetical mussel longline culture, and a multi-use scenario combining both. The results enabled detailed comparisons of the probability and magnitude of creating risks and providing benefits across scenarios, demonstrating the utility of cumulative distribution functions for both visualizing and quantifying risks and benefits to ES supply. This generic and broadly applicable method can evaluate ES trade-offs regardless of the ecosystem under study, providing a valuable tool to operationalize the integration of ES into decision-making and environmental management frameworks.

Assessing the impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on ecosystem services in water source areas: Evidence from the Hanjiang River Basin

Inter-basin water transfer projects (IBWT) are a key strategy for alleviating regional water shortages. However, studies on the long-term effects of such projects on ecosystem services (ESs) in water source areas, as well as their spatiotemporal evolution, remain insufficient. In particular, the specific impacts of the entire project lifecycle (project initiation, dam heightening, project operation, and ecological restoration) on ESs need further exploration. This study focuses on the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China, utilizing multi-source datasets (land use and land cover, meteorological data, soil texture, digital elevation models, normalized difference vegetation index, and net primary productivity), applying the biophysical model method to examine the spatiotemporal variations in ESs across the Hanjiang River Basin over the past three decades, and investigates the impact of IBWT on the ESs of water source areas. The findings reveal: (1) During the project initiation phase (2000-2010), vegetation restoration strategies enhanced soil retention by over 60%, demonstrating that simultaneous project-ecological implementation can mitigate habitat degradation risks. (2) The dam heightening phase (2005-2010) drove spatial reconfiguration of water-energy fluxes, leading to declines in water conservation and carbon sequestration in the midstream region, while enhancing flood mitigation and climate regulation in the reservoir area, unveiling the reshaping mechanisms of dam heightening on ESs supply patterns. (3) The operation phase exhibited significant temporal heterogeneity: initial operation (2010-2015) saw a sharp decline in water conservation (>40%) and soil retention (>60%) due to hydrological disturbances, whereas sustained operation (2015-2020) restored water conservation by nearly 70% and soil retention by over 40% through ecological restoration, alongside a net increase of 14.14% in carbon sequestration, confirming the time-lag compensation effects of restoration measures and the dynamic interplay between ecological restoration and project interventions. This research presents empirical evidence supporting the sustainable management and ecological restoration of IBWT, emphasizing the need to balance spatial water allocation with ecological conservation.

A novel unit value method for urban ecosystem services assessment

Land use and land cover in cities experience complicated changes in response to rapid urbanization, requiring significant impact on ecosystem service value. However, traditional valuation methods tend to ignore artificial ecosystem. This study develops a novel Unit Value (UV) method to evaluate urban ecosystem service values with both natural and artificial ecosystems considered comprehensively. This method is used to reveal the spatial-temporal evolution of ESV in Wuhan from 1996 to 2018. Additionally, Pearson's correlation between ESVs and driving factors is studied by using a multiple regression model. The results show that: (1) Ecosystem service values are observed to increase by 20.94% because of land use and land cover increases in woodland ((32.21%) and man-made wetland (61.73%) in 1996-2018, respectively. (2) ESVs declined in central districts and increased in suburban districts, with a clear imbalance between "high central areas" and "low suburban areas". (3) Human activities play a more important role in urban ecosystem compared to natural environmental factors, especially agriculture, per capita GDP, and population. This study provides a distinctive method for the spatiotemporal evaluation of urban ecosystem service values, establishing an insightful basis for urban sustainable development.

Unveiling spatiotemporal patterns and key drivers of soil conservation from a "historical-future-intervention" perspective: A case study of the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area, China

The soil conservation of ecosystems in water source areas is crucial for ensuring water quality and supply. It is primarily shaped by natural factors like rainfall intensity, soil characteristics, and topography, alongside the impact of human activities. As the starting point and core water source area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project, the Danjiangkou Reservoir has experienced increasing risks of soil erosion under the combined effects of extreme climate events and land cover changes. Effectively assessing these changes and formulating policies to address future challenges is of great significance for the stable operation of the reservoir and the long-term, sustainable transfer of clean water. This study incorporates human intervention factors to generate three future development scenarios for the DRA, including protection priority, natural development, and economic priority, corresponding to SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 stem from the future climate, social, and economic scenarios (CMIP6-SSP-RCP), respectively. Additionally, we uses land use/land cover (LULC) data from 2000 to 2020 as historical input and applies the LULC simulation model model (PLUS) to predict land use types for the 2025-2035 period under the current land use continuation scenario, and employ the InVEST model to quantify SC (soil conservation) services for both the 2000-2020 period and the different future scenarios (2025-2035). The findings indicate that the land use structure in the reservoir area has undergone changes over the past two decades, with a reduction in forest and grassland, leading to a gradual weakening of soil conservation capacity. Among the future scenarios, the protection-priority scenario, which involves human intervention, offers the highest soil conservation. LULC is identified as a major variable influencing these changes. The findings offer scientific evidence and support for future land use and soil conservation management in the DRA.

Marine ecosystem services and natural capital in China: Opportunities for improved understanding, valuing, and policy

This paper reviews the context and prospects for markedly improved sustainability of marine ecosystems and resources in China, based on accounting of marine ecosystem services and natural capital along with supporting policy and governance frameworks, in turn based on existing approaches in China's terrestrial social-ecological systems. Such integrated accounting, policy, and governance would provide a unique, novel, and innovative approach to regional-scale, sustainable ocean management. China is uniquely placed to implement such accountability, given the extensive adoption of accountability in terrestrial landscapes and the strong commitment to "ecological civilization" at the highest levels of national policy. Specifically, the paper outlines: The current, seriously degraded state of marine ecosystems and resources in China, largely due to economic drivers that ignore the valuable economic services provided by healthy marine ecosystems;The critical context of, and high-level commitment to, China's considerable development of environmental accounting, implementation and governance frameworks in terrestrial landscapes;Existing approaches for assessing marine natural capital in China, and the relationships between them;Currently available assessments;Current governance arrangements for marine ecosystem management in China.The paper then provides a potential implementation pathway for a system of standardised, nationally integrated, provincially-implemented marine environmental accounts, policy and governance, adapted from existing terrestrial arrangements. Such accounting, if embedded in rigorous governance and policy structures to drive real-world implementation, could generate a major improvement in sustainability of China's marine ecosystems. Given the extent of China's marine jurisdiction, and severity of ongoing degradation, such improvement could have enormous environmental and economic benefits within China, and at a global scale.

Evaluation of the synergistic change in cultivated land and wetland in northeast China from 1990 to 2035

Wetlands are the most biodiverse ecological landscape in nature and one of the most important natural resources for human beings. In recent years, wetlands in northeast China have been increasingly converted into cultivated land, resulting in significant reduction in wetland area. Currently, the extensive and prolonged use of natural resources, combined with mismanagement and climate change, presents considerable challenges for both governments and future sustainability. This study utilized the PLUS model to analyze the spatial-temporal transformation of cultivated land and wetland in northeast China over the past 30 years and to project land use changes from 2020 to 2035. The analysis quantitatively evaluated the impacts of human activities and climate change. The results showed that: (1) Wetlands in northeast China have been progressively converted into paddy fields or degraded into unused land. (2) Topography, GDP, and temperature are the primary drivers of land use change over the past three decades. (3) There is an urgent need for national macro-policy regulation to mitigate the degradation of cultivated land and wetlands through the rational allocation of land resources.

Socioeconomic developments drove regime shifts of agriculture-ecology-economy nexus of social-ecological system: Four-decade lessons from southeast China

Urbanization has been recognized as an effective measure to promote socioeconomic development; however, it leads to cropland and habitat loss and aggravates ecosystem services (ESs), which have not been sufficiently and systematically revealed from the perspective of agriculture-ecology-economy nexus (AEEN). To address these knowledge gaps, this novel study adopted a hotspot of urbanization to examine the response dynamics of ESs and agricultural production to urbanization, as well as their regime shifts and interactions, by employing statistical records, satellite images, and incorporating biophysical model-based ESs into AEEN. In the past four decades, Guangdong has undergone rapid urbanization and associated landscape transformations, represented by cropland and wetland shrinkage and urban expansion, particularly around central city clusters, which have caused ESs degradation and grain productivity reduction. According to the regime shifts of the AEEN sectors and their systematic responses to socioeconomic developments and policy interventions, nexus sector interactions between agriculture and the economy in Phase I (1980-1997) and Phase III (2009-2020) had positive effects, while those in Phase II (1998-2008) were negative because of cropland loss and industrial structure adjustments. Network structure analysis and spatial panel model further revealed that natural environmental, socioeconomic, and landscape composition and structural factors were determinants of ES evolution and regime shifts in AEEN. Structural change analysis and systematic perspectives are essential for understanding the consequences and determinants of urbanization on agricultural production and ecosystem state by placing ESs within AEEN, which is expected to support landscape management and policy formulations for coordinated development that balance multi-sector benefits.

Multidimensional patterns of bird diversity and its driving forces in the Yangtze River Basin of China

Biodiversity is fundamental to human well-being and economic development. The Yangtze River, the largest river in China, faces biodiversity loss due to habitat degradation, climate change, and other anthropogenic threats. However, the long-term changes in the region's biodiversity remain poorly understood. Here, we constructed an optimized living planet index (LPIO) by combining Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling and Random Forest Modeling. Using data from a monitoring network of 536 sites, we observed an increasing trend in terrestrial bird diversity and functional complexity across the entire watershed from 2011 to 2020. Our findings indicate that a large-scale ecological restoration program has contributed to increases in terrestrial and aquatic bird diversity in the Yangtze River Basin. In contrast, bird diversity in the downstream area has decreased by 2.83%, largely due to a rapid decline in wetland birds. The degradation of wetland habitats and insufficient conservation measures have negatively impacted bird diversity in the downstream region. This suggests that although there have been significant improvements in terrestrial bird diversity, more effective wetland restoration is necessary for biodiversity conservation. We recommend optimizing the national large-scale biodiversity monitoring network and increasing the number of upstream monitoring sites.

Coupling effect of landscape patterns on the spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services: a case study in Harbin City, Northeast China

To secure the enduring the long-term growth of ecosystem services, the city of Harbin in northeastern China must prioritize the optimization of its landscape pattern. However, there is a dearth of studies pertaining to the geospatial repercussions of landscape patterns on ecosystem services. This study examined the properties of spatio-temporal evolution of Harbin's landscape patterns from 2000 to 2020 and six essential ecosystem services: food supply, water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage, water purification, and habitat quality. It used the geographical detector (GD) to reveal the effects of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem services and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to map ecosystem services' responses to changes in landscape pattern heterogeneity. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the landscape types in Harbin tended to become richer, the spatial heterogeneity increased, and the degree of fragmentation decreased significantly. Water yield continued to increase, habitat quality slightly improved, soil conservation and carbon storage initially decreased and then increased, and water purification and food supply first increased and then decreased. Landscape pattern evolution had a substantial impact on ecosystem services. Landscape composition had a greater influence on ecosystem services than did landscape configuration in Harbin City, with the proportion of agricultural land, the proportion of woodland, the largest patch index, and the aggregation index having a greater effect on ecosystem services. A significant challenge in territorial spatial planning is how to develop distinct ecosystem services in a balanced fashion, because in the majority of cases, the effects of landscape patterns on individual services are different or even opposing. To optimize local landscape patterns and develop total ecosystem services in a balanced manner, policymakers can use the study's results, which emphasize the complex response of ecosystem services to changes in landscape patterns, to develop more accurate spatial planning strategies and plans.

Identification of degradation risk areas and delineation of key ecological function areas in Qinling region

As a critical component of the geographical divide between the northern and southern regions of China, the ecological stability of the Qinling region has profound implications for ecological balance within China and across East Asia. However, the degradation risk areas of the Qinling region remain unclear, and there are gaps in the delineation of key ecological protection areas. This study examines the improvement and decline in the Qinling region from 2000 to 2023 in terms of ecosystem patterns, quality, and functions. Moreover, key ecological function and degradation risk zones were identified, and future development paths were proposed for the Qinling region. The findings indicate that: (1) Urban area expansion was the most rapid, increasing by about 1800 km², with an average yearly growth rate of 2.43%. Ecosystem quality increased in 48.07% of the Qinling region. The degradation risk zones of ecosystem quality and function were primarily located in the Sanjiangyuan, the Minshan-Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the Loess Plateau in Shaanxi, Henan, and Gansu. The core areas for water and soil conservation only accounted for 17.92% and 10.47%, respectively, mainly distributed across the Qinling-Daba Mountains. Based on ecological patterns, quality, functions, and ecological protection and restoration projects, the Qinling region has been divided into two majority categories and 16 subcategories: 7 ecologically key functional areas and 9 degradation risk areas. This study offers recommendations for formulating ecological protection and restoration policies, thereby promoting the sustainable development of the region's ecology and economy.

Exploring the spatiotemporal effects of urban scale and urban vitality on S&D balance in the Yangtze River Delta, China from 2015 to 2025

Analysis of the spatiotemporal trends of urban scale and urban vitality on ecosystem services balance provides an essential basis for regional sustainable development. This study employs the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR), and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) to effectively capture spatiotemporal associations between urban scale, urban vitality, and ecosystem services supply-demand balance, providing a detailed view of regional variations. The integrated framework combines spatiotemporal analysis, predictive scenario simulation, and importance-performance analysis to quantify and strategize urban impacts on ESs. Results show that urban scale negatively impacts the S&D ratio, while certain urban vitality factors support ecological supply (ESSI) and others enhance ecological demand (ESDI), contributing to a more balanced S&D ratio. Second, the economic priority scenario had the greatest influence on the S&D ratio, reaching - 37.5%. This resulted in Zhejiang Province's S&D value approaching 1 (the lowest S&D value being 2.044). In Anhui, Jiangsu Province, and Shanghai, the ecological priority scenario had the most impact on the S&D ratio, raising the S&D value to 0.58 ~ 1.057. While urban scale and ecological priority scenarios enhance ES supply in northeastern YRD, helping to balance the S&D ratio, urban vitality and economic priority scenarios complement each other in southwestern YRD by driving ES demand, illustrating regional differences in development strategies.

Active restoration efforts drive community succession and assembly in a desert during the past 53 years

Regreening efforts in deserts have been implemented globally to combat land degradation and desert expansion, but how they affect above- and belowground community succession and assembly processes remains unknown. Here, we examined variations in plant and soil microbial community attributes along a 53-year restoration chronosequence following the establishment of straw checkerboard barriers (SCBs) in the Tengger Desert of China. This approach is a combination of fixing shifting sand and adding organic material (straw) simultaneously to expedite vegetation restoration by enhancing the success of plant establishment. Our findings revealed that the establishment of SCBs significantly triggered plant and soil microbial communities to gradually approximate those of the natural community along restoration duration. We observed positive and negative bidirectional shifts in plant and soil microbial community composition. Critical temporal threshold zones for relatively rapid changes in community composition were identified, with 2-15.5 years for plants, 0.5-8.5 years for bacteria, and 2-8.5 years for fungi. This suggests a delayed response of plant communities to restoration efforts compared with soil microbial communities. Both stochastic and deterministic processes regulated plant and soil microbial community assembly. Stochastic processes played a more important role in plant and fungal community succession, whereas deterministic processes primarily governed bacterial succession. In terms of deterministic processes, temporal variations in community composition mainly resulted from the intrinsic correlations among plant, bacterial, and fungal communities, as well as an increase in soil organic carbon (SOC) with restoration duration. Thus, temporal patterns and functional contributions of bacterial communities appear to be more predictable than those of plant and fungal communities during desert ecosystem restoration. This study emphasizes that plant-bacteria-fungi correlations and increasing SOC content are critical for accelerating community succession and promoting dryland restoration. Future studies should explore and integrate temporal variations and restoration effects of multiple ecosystem functions to better predict dryland development and resilience to global climate changes over a large temporal scale.

Unraveling the paradox of soil erosion and conservation: Insights from China

Analyzing the drivers of soil conservation (SC) service is crucial for ecosystem restoration. However, previous studies often overlook the relationship between soil erosion and SC. In this study, we applied the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model to analyze the spatiotemporal trends and driving forces of SC service across China from 1990 to 2019. The results indicate that both soil erosion and SC service have exhibited overall increasing trends over the past 30 years. The average SC amount increased 21.3 % from 1990s to 2010s. The average total SC amount and capacity were 229.95 billion t a-1 and 242.91 t ha-1 a-1, respectively. Spatial analysis reveals significant regional variability, with 26.6 % of the land area experiencing fluctuations in SC, these regions contribute to 87.5 % of the total SC amount in the country. We developed a classification system with six patterns to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities on SC. Patterns dominated by climate change exhibit consistent trends in soil erosion and SC service, whereas those dominated by human activities show opposite trends. When climate change and human activities interact, the relationship becomes more complex. Climate change has the most significant influence on SC alterations, affecting 77.1 % of areas with SC changes, while human activities also play a notable role. Although regions primarily impacted by human activities account for only 1.8 % of the total area, they represent 45,200 km2. The remaining 21.1 % of areas are influenced by both climate change and human activities, highlighting the importance of human activities in 22.9 % of areas with SC changes. These findings underscore the synergistic effects of climate change and human activities on SC in China, providing a foundation for future research and the development of targeted SC strategies.

Unveiling the spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of carbon stocks in the yangtze river basin over the past two decades

Terrestrial ecosystems are critical to the global carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Over the past two decades, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) has implemented various ecological restoration projects and active management measures, significantly impacting carbon stock patterns. This study employed random forest models to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon stocks in the YRB from 2001 to 2021. In 2021, carbon density in the YRB ranged from 8.5 to 177.4 MgC/ha, with a total carbon stock of 18.05 PgC. Over 20 years, the YRB sequestered 1.26 billion tons of carbon, accounting for 11.28 % of the region's fossil fuel carbon emissions. Notably, forests exhibited the highest carbon density, averaging 98.01 ± 25.01 MgC/ha (2021) with a carbon stock growth rate of 51.6 TgC/yr. Piecewise structural equation model was used to assess the effects of climate and human activities on carbon density, revealing regional variability, with unique patterns observed in the source region. Human activities primarily influence carbon density indirectly through vegetation alterations., while climate change directly impacts ecosystem biophysical processes. These findings offer critical insights for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, enhancing the understanding of carbon dynamics for sustainable development and global carbon management.

Effects of Vegetation Restoration Type on Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Associated Microbial Regulation on the Loess Plateau

Investigating responses of soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to vegetation restoration is important for global warming mitigation. On the Loess Plateau, a wide range of vegetation restoration strategies have been implemented to control land degradation. However, the thorough quantification of soil GHG emissions triggered by different modes of vegetation restoration is insufficient. There is still a knowledge gap regarding the regulation of soil biochemical and microbial processing on soil GHG emissions. To do so, we compared responses of soil GHG emissions to various types of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau, and investigated the changes in soil properties as well as microbial composition and activities. We found that artificial plantation of Caragana korshinskii had low soil carbon dioxide (CO2) emission, while natural grassland had high CO2 emission. The possible explanations could be related to higher moisture and microbial biomass carbon, and greater nitrogen limitation in natural grassland, which was controlled by actinomycetes and gram-negative bacteria. Natural grassland had low soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emission and high methane (CH4) uptake, whereas Prunus mume had high N2O emission and Medicago sativa had low CH4 uptake, respectively. Soil N2O emission could be driven by fungi and gram-positive bacteria which were affected by N availability and dissolved organic carbon. Soil CH4 consumption was associated with anaerobic bacteria and gram-negative bacteria which were affected by N availability and moisture. These different emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4 generated the largest total GHG emissions for plantation of Prunus mume, but the smallest total GHG emissions for natural grassland and plantation of leguminous Caragana korshinskii. Overall, our findings suggested that the restoration of natural grassland and artificial N-fixing shrubland like Caragana korshinskii should be encouraged to alleviate GHG emissions, with the practical implications for selecting suitable modes and species to improve ecological sustainability in degraded lands.

Using surface runoff to reveal the mechanisms of landscape patterns driving on various forms of nitrogen in non-point source pollution

Non-point source (NPS) pollution directly threatens river water quality, constrains sustainable economic development, and poses hazards to human health. Comprehension of the impact factors on NPS pollution is essential for scientific river water quality management. Despite the landscape pattern being considered to have a significant impact on NPS pollution, the driving mechanism of landscape patterns on NPS pollution remains unclear. Therefore, this study coupled multi-models including the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Random Forest, and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to construct the connection between landscape patterns, NPS pollution, and surface runoff. The results suggested that increased runoff during the wet season enhances the link between landscape patterns and NPS pollution, and the explained NPS pollution variation by landscape pattern increased from 59.6 % (dry season) to 84.9 % (wet season). Furthermore, from the impact pathways, we find that the sink landscape pattern can significantly and indirectly influence NPS pollution by regulating surface runoff during the wet season (0.301*). Meanwhile, the sink and source landscape patterns significantly and directly impact NPS pollution during different seasons. Moreover, we further find that the percentage of paddy land use (Pad_PLAND) and grassland patch density (Gra_PD) metrics can significantly predict the dissolved total nitrogen (DTN) and nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N) variation. Thus, controlling the runoff migration process by guiding the rational evolution of watershed landscape patterns is an important development direction for watershed NPS pollution management.

An approach based on ecosystem services for assessing progress towards sustainable development goals at both national and provincial levels in China

Ecosystem services (ESs), the benefits nature provides to people, are an important basis for fulfilling sustainable development goals (SDGs). Therefore, an ES-based approach will help deepen our understanding of the relationships between natural systems and human well-being and provide co-benefit pathways for sustainable development. However, monitoring progress towards achieving the SDGs based on the contributions of ESs to SDGs is lacking. Using the linkages between ESs and SDGs, this study quantified progress towards the SDGs in China from 2000 to 2020 and determined future development priorities at both the national and provincial levels. Our results indicated that (1) during the period 2000-2020, China showed decreasing trends in the 11 SDGs and SDG index scores; (2) there were significant differences in the scores for SDGs and the SDG index across 31 provinces; (3) SDG 3, SDG6, SDG11, SDG13, and SDG15 were recognized as the highest national priorities, concerning health and environment; and (4) 31 provinces faced diverse economic, social, and environmental development challenges. The ES-based approach may assist policy-makers in monitoring and comparing progress towards the SDGs in an integrated and composite way, prioritizing local action, and providing a scientific basis for formulating policies to achieve SDG implementation.

Identification of unique ecosystem service bundles in farmland - A case study in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China

Ecosystem services (ESs) are essential for human well-being and are relevant to the region's sustainable development. Most studies have emphasized the importance of high ecosystem services areas for entire regions. However, some locations with particular contributions to a region's ecosystem services are still overlooked. Using the InVEST model, this study analyzed three ESs: annual water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), and soil conservation (SC) in the farmland of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHP) from 2005 to 2019. Combining climate regulation (NDVI) and food production (FP), this research calculated the city level of the diversity of ecosystem services supply (alpha-multifunctionality) and the unique contribution to the region in each city (beta-multifunctionality) from 2005 to 2019. The alpha-multifunctionality combines the number of ecosystem services and their supplies of ecosystem services. At the same time, the beta-multifunctionality assesses the average dissimilarity between the city and all other cities within that region. Furthermore, this study used Spearman correlation and self-organizing map (SOM) to analyze the relationships between these five ecosystem services and identify ecosystem service bundles. Finally, this study used random forests to analyze drivers of ecosystem service multifunctionality. Our results showed that food production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain increased significantly by 37.20% over time, annual water yield decreased significantly by 29.59%, and climate regulation decreased significantly by 6.09%. This may be because the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain mainly shifted from monoculture to crop rotation, and the increase in crops required more irrigation, which led to a significant decline in water yield. Furthermore, the area of grain crops in the HHHP was reduced in 2019 compared to 2005, which explains the significant decline in climate regulation. SOM found that cities with a higher beta-multifunctionality were mainly concentrated in the northern and southwest parts of HHHP. Bundles with a high alpha-multifunctionality were mainly in the southern and southeast parts of the HHHP. In addition, this research showed that farmers' per capita disposable income was the most important driver of ecosystem service multifunctionality, followed by annual average precipitation and temperature. In conclusion, this study suggests that policymakers should strengthen the protection of some high ecological value but low economic value farmlands, which are crucial for regional ecological security. Meanwhile, policymakers should introduce strict ecological protection policies for farmland to reduce the decline of ecological services caused by farmers' pursuit of economic income.

How has carbon storage changed in the Yili-Tianshan region over the past three decades and into the future? What has driven it to change?

Predicting future land use changes and assessing carbon storage remain challenging. Nowadays, how nature and socioeconomics drive changes in carbon storage is a hot topic in research. In this study, through the projection of land use type and the integration of the PLUS, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST), and Geodetector models, we constructed a framework for assessing carbon storage in different land use scenarios. Utilizing this framework, it is possible to project land use change and estimate carbon storage based on different development scenarios. We applied the framework to the Yili Tianshan region and identified the main driving forces for carbon storage change. Further, we estimated the carbon storage in the Yili Tianshan region in 2035 under four scenarios (RE, NE, EP, and CLP). The results showed the following: 1) Between 1990 and 2020, there was an increase in the forest area and water bodies in the Yili-Tianshan region, mainly from bare land. 2) As shown on the time scale, carbon storage increases in the Yili-Tianshan region with a W-shaped fluctuation by converting grasslands and bare land into forests. On a spatial scale, the carbon storage was lower in the center and higher on both sides in the Yili-Tianshan region. 3) In 2035- RE, 2035-ND, and 2035-EP scenarios, the carbon storage was increased by 4.30 Tg, 6.67 Tg, and 12.08 Tg; in the 2035-CLP scenario, it was decreased by 14.63 Tg. The Yili-Tianshan region experienced a notable rise in carbon storage under the 2035-EP scenario compared to the other three scenarios. 4) Soil type played a significant role in the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Yili-Tianshan (q value 0.5958), followed by population density (0.5394). The changes in carbon storage in the Yili-Tianshan region are the result of synergistic effects of multiple factors, in which the soil type∩soil erosion intensity are the most important. This research could provide a reference method for improving regional carbon storage.

Assessing the impact of human activities on ecosystem asset dynamics in the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2020

The intensification of human activities in the Yellow River Basin has significantly altered its ecosystems, challenging the sustainability of the region's ecosystem assets. This study constructs an ecosystem asset index for the period from 2001 to 2020, integrating it with human footprint maps to analyze the temporal and spatial dynamics of ecosystem assets and human activities within the basin, as well as their interrelationships. Our findings reveal significant improvement of ecosystem assets, mainly attributed to the conversion of farmland back into natural habitats, resulting in a 15,994 km2 increase in ecological land use. Notably, 45.88% of the basin has experienced concurrent growth in both human activities and ecosystem assets, with ecosystem assets expanding at a faster rate (22.61%) than human activities (17.25%). Areas with high-quality ecosystem assets are expanding, in contrast to areas with intense human activities, which are facing increased fragmentation. Despite a global escalation in threats from human activities to ecosystem assets, the local threat level within the Yellow River Basin has slightly diminished, indicating a trend towards stabilization. Results highlight the critical importance of integrating spatial and quality considerations into restoration efforts to enhance the overall condition of ecosystem assets, especially under increasing human pressures. Our work assesses the impact of human activities on the dynamics of ecosystem assets in the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2020, offering valuable insights for quality development in the region, may provide a scientific basis for general watershed ecological protection and sustainable management in a region heavily influenced by human activity but on a path to recovery.

Health Impacts of Fine Particulate Matter Shift Due to Urbanization in China

Rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in diverse anthropogenic activities and emissions between urban and non-urban regions, leading to varying levels of exposure to air pollutants and associated health risks. However, endeavors to mitigate air pollution and health benefits have displayed considerable heterogeneity across different regions. Therefore, comprehending the changes in air pollutant concentrations and health impacts within an urbanization context is imperative for promoting environmental equity. This paper uses gross domestic product (GDP)- and population-weighted methods to distinguish anthropogenic emissions from urban and non-urban areas in China and quantified their contributions to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in 2010 and 2019. Anthropogenic emissions from urban and non-urban (outside urban) regions decreased by 26 and 44% from 2010 to 2019, respectively, resulting in 31 and 28% reductions of PM2.5 in China. PM2.5-related premature mortality attributed to non-urban and urban anthropogenic emission decreases by 8%. Non-urban anthropogenic activities are the main contributor to PM2.5 (56% in 2010 and 2019) and its associated premature mortality (59%), which also predominantly affects non-urban premature mortality (37-42% in 2010-2019). Population changes increase the proportion of premature mortality in urban populations (7-19%) from 2010 to 2019. This study emphasizes the shift of affected populations due to urbanization and population changes.

Heterogeneous and interactive effects of payments for ecosystem services on household income across giant panda nature reserves

Numerous Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs have been implemented simultaneously around the world but their outcomes in the literature are not consistent and their interactive effects remain understudied. The Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and Grain to Green Program (GTGP) are two largest PES programs in the world, and many studies have evaluated their effects on household income. However, the identified effects often varied across different studies and the factors explaining this variation are poorly understood. This study used linear regression and geographic detector analysis, based on questionnaire survey data from 14 giant panda natural reserves (NRs) in southwestern China, to evaluate the effects of the NFCP and GTGP on household income and the factors which moderate these effects. The results revealed that the effects of two PES programs on household income were spatially heterogeneous and enhanced by each other and livelihood activities, suggesting a synergistic interaction between policies and livelihood activities, particularly tourism. This study also found that livelihoods activities (e.g., labor migration and tourism), household capital (i.e., house area and farmland area) and demographic factors (i.e., number of labor and non-labor members), exhibit spatial heterogeneity in their effects on household income across NRs. These findings underscore the importance of considering local socioeconomic conditions and the interaction between policy and socio-economic conditions in PES program design to achieve desired outcomes, providing insights for policymakers and practitioners worldwide.

The impact of China's urbanization on ecosystem service value from the perspective of gross ecosystem product: a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Gross ecosystem product (GEP) is an aggregate measure of the monetary value of final ecosystem services, or the direct benefits that people derive from nature. GEP can provide decision makers with clear and competing evidence of the monetary value of ecosystem services. However, the relationship between GEP and urbanization has not been clarified which is not conducive to the decision-making role of GEP in the process of urban sustainable development. This work focused on the 'Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei' (BTH) urban agglomeration as a case study of the dynamics of ecological production amidst rapid economic and urban development, and coupled a spatial-temporal analysis of regional ecological change based on GIS (Geographic Information System) with economic valuation methods using official statistics and survey data. Results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the GEP increased from 1.55 trillion to 2.36 trillion, the value of provisioning services and cultural services increased from 0.51 to 0.71 trillion to 0.10-0.65 trillion. The value of regulation services showed an upward and downward trend (0.94-1.03-0.98) due to the rapid economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. There were obvious spatial differences in the distribution of the GEP, in which Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Cangzhou GEP accounted for 15%, 14%, 16% and 11%, respectively. During 2000-2020, there is a significant correlation between urbanization index (UI) and GEP in BTH, but the correlation between GEP and UI shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The correlation between UI and EPS and ERS gradually decreases, and the impact of UI on ETS shows a significant positive correlation. In the future, it can be foreseen that urbanization will suppress the increase of GEP.

Exposure of water purification deficit network in response to nitrogen application intensity

Ecosystem services are strongly responsive to changes in land use intensity, especially for the service of water purification, which is highly sensitive to water pollutant emission. Increased nitrogen (N) application to cropland has potential impacts on the supply and demand for water purification through changes in land use intensity. However, there has been a lack of research focusing on the impacts of cropland N application on population exposure to water purification deficit and their cross-regional delivery network. Taking the Dongting Lake (DTL) Basin as an example, this study explored the spatial pattern of N exposure in the DTL Basin from 1990 to 2015 by integrating water purification deficit and population density. Changes in potential N exposure in 2050 were simulated based on population projection data from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-5). N delivery pathways in the DTL Basin were clarified by constructing the N delivery network. The results showed that N exposure increased significantly with increasing N application in DTL Basin. The DTL surrounding area and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River Basin had high increases of N exposure (50.2 % and 71.6 %) and high increases in N exposure due to increases in N application per unit (N influence coefficients exceeding 0.5). The lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River Basin with the highest population density had the smallest decrease in N exposure (1.4 %-11.1 %) in the SSP1-5 scenarios. During 1990-2015, the increase of N export to the DTL surrounding area was higher in the lower reach sub-basins of DTL Basin. N application had a stronger impact on N delivery processes in the lower reaches of DTL Basin. Managers should distribute N applications to basins with high N retention and low N export to the DTL surrounding area. This study confirmed the strong response of water purification deficit and its population exposure to N application, and provided decision-making guidelines for water quality enhancement in DTL Basin from a spatial planning perspective.

Spatiotemporal drivers of Nature's contributions to people: A county-level study

Nature's contributions to people (NCP) encompass both the beneficial and detrimental effects of living nature on human quality of life, including regulatory, material, and non-material contributions. Globally, vital NCPs have been deteriorating, accelerated by changes in both natural and anthropogenic drivers over recent decades. Despite the often inevitable trade-offs between NCPs due to their spatially and temporally uneven distributions, few studies have quantitatively assessed the impacts of different drivers on the spatial and temporal changes in multiple NCPs and their interrelationships. Here we evaluate the effects of precipitation, temperature, population, gross domestic product, vegetation restoration, and urban expansion on four key regulatory NCPs-habitat maintenance, climate regulation, water quantity regulation, and soil protection-in Nei Mongol at the county level. We observe increasing trends in climate regulation and soil protection from 2000 to 2019, contrasted with declining trends in habitat maintenance and water quantity regulation. We have identified the dominant positive and negative drivers influencing each NCP across individual counties, finding that natural drivers predominantly overpowered anthropogenic drivers. Furthermore, we discover significant spatial disparities in the trade-off or synergy relationships between NCPs across the counties. Our findings illustrate how the impacts of various drivers on NCPs and their interrelationships can be quantitatively evaluated, offering significant potential for application in various spatial scales. With an understanding of trade-offs and scale effects, these insights are expected to support and inform policymaking at both county and provincial levels.

Identification of potential suitable areas and conservation priority areas for representative wild animals in the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains

Species geographic distribution and conservation priority areas are important bases for in situ biodiversity conservation and conservation decision-making. In view of the urgency of endangered species protection, eight representative endangered species in the typical forest ecosystem of the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains were studied. Based on 1127 occurrence points and environmental data collected from 2016 to 2021, used BIOMOD2 and Zonation to reconstruct the potential distribution area and identify conservation priority areas of eight species (Tetrao parvirostris, T. tetrix, Gulo gulo, Alces alces, Martes zibellina, Moschus moschiferus, Lynx lynx, Lutra lutra). The results showed potential distribution areas for almost all species concentrated in the northern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) and the central part of the Lesser Khingan Mountains (LKM). The potential distribution areas of each species were as follows: black-billed capercaillie, 102,623 km2; black grouse, 162,678 km2; wolverine, 63,410 km2; moose, 140,287 km2; sable, 112,254 km2; Siberian musk deer, 104,787 km2; lynx, 139,912 km2; and Eurasian otter, 49,386 km2. Conservation priority areas (CPAs) clustered in the north GKM and central LKM and totaled 220,801 km2, and only 16.94% of the CPAs were currently protected by nature reserves. We suggest that the Chinese government accelerate the integration of existing protected areas in the northern GKM and establish a larger GKM National Park based on cost-effective multi-species protection.

Breaking the poverty trap in an ecologically fragile region through ecological engineering: A close-up look at long-term changes in ecosystem services

Ecological vulnerability and poverty are interrelated and must be addressed together. The resolution of this issue will help us to meet the challenges during the process of implementing concrete actions for realizing the 2030 UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) can enhance ecosystem services (ESs) while providing policy support for improving people's livelihoods. However, processes and mechanisms of ERPs on the ecological environment and socioeconomic development in poverty-stricken and ecologically fragile areas have rarely been studied. To address these issues, we conducted a comparative analysis on the changes of land use and land cover (LULC), ecosystem services (ESs), and socioeconomic development in Bijie City, a karst rocky desertification area in southwest China, before and after the implementation of ERPs in 2000, as well as the complex relationship between these factors. ERPs have affected LULCs, ESs, socioeconomics, and poverty reduction significantly since 2000. Specifically, the total ecosystem service value (ESV) in the study area has increased by more than 3 times in the past 30 years, with the ESV of tourism services and carbon storage increasing the most, from CNY 0.001 and 337.07 billion in 1990 to CNY 11.07 and 108.97 billion in 2019, respectively. The correlation between ESs is mainly synergistic, while the tradeoff between carbon storage and water yield is in a fluctuating upward trend. LULC conversion of cropland to green, and cropland to water, wetland and shrubs has positive effects on carbon storage and water yield, respectively. During study period, GDP, urbanization increased by over 70 times, 5 times, respectively, whereas poverty population, poverty incidence, and employment rate of various sectors (i.e., agriculture, forest, animal, and fishery, or AFAF) decreased by 96.4%, 97.7%, and 18.24%, respectively. Our findings emphasized that ERPs can effectively help poor and ecologically fragile areas to get out of the poverty trap and achieve the "win-win" goals of ecological and socio-economic sustainable development. These results have profound environmental management references to China and other developing countries around the world in realizing ecological restoration, poverty reduction, and the SDGs.

Geospatial mapping of carbon estimates for forested areas using the InVEST model and Sentinel-2: A case study in Galicia (NW Spain)

CO2 emissions have increased exponentially in recent years, so measuring and quantifying carbon sequestration is a step towards sustainable forest management and combating climate change. The overall goal of this study is to develop an accurate model for estimating carbon storage and sequestration for forest areas of the Atlantic Biogeographic Region. Specifically, the modelling and field sampling are carried out in the municipality of Baiona (Galicia, NW Spain), which was selected as a representative biome of this region. The methodology consists of carrying out two object-based image analysis (OBIA) classifications in spring and autumn to observe possible stocks of seasonal differences. Two carbon storage and sequestration models are built up (model 1 and model 2): model 1 for forest areas only and model 2 including all other land cover in the study area. Sentinel-2 geospatial data for 2021, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) tools and geographic information systems (GIS) are used. A Kappa index of 0.92 is obtained for both classifications, thus ruling out any notable seasonal differences in the images used. The results from both models indicate that it is land covers associated with forest uses which store the most carbon in the study area, accounting for >50 % more than the other land covers. It is concluded that the methodology and data used are very useful for quantifying ecosystem services, which will help the governance of the region by implementing measures to mitigate some of the effects of climate change and help to create silvicultural models for the sustainable management of the Atlantic Biogeographic Region.

Multilevel ecological compensation policy design based on ecosystem service flow: A case study of carbon sequestration services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Ecological compensation is an effective means to reconcile the imbalance of eco-social development between regions and promote enthusiasm for ecological environmental protection. There is some conformity between the theory of ecosystem service flow and ecological compensation, which provides new technical support for the formulation of ecological compensation policy. This study took the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research area, adopted the breaking point model to obtain the spatial characteristics of carbon sequestration flow, and formulated a multilevel ecological compensation policy with Tibet as the design object. The results showed that most of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a carbon sequestration surplus; the central and eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, western Sichuan are successively carbon sequestration supply areas; the Chengdu Plain and Xinjiang were listed as carbon sequestration benefit areas; and the carbon sequestration tended to flow more closely between supply and benefit areas in proximity to each other. Nyingchi, Chamdo, Naqu and Shannan in Tibet need to receive a total ecological compensation of 393.21 million USD, of which 93.71 % is from the national level, 6.02 % is from carbon sequestration benefit areas in other provinces; furthermore, Lhasa and Shigatse in Tibet need to provide the remaining ecological compensation. This study offers innovations for the formulation of ecological compensation policies and provide a new theory for ecological environment management.

Vegetation cover dynamics and its constraint effect on ecosystem services on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under ecological restoration projects

Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) are implemented worldwide to restore degraded ecosystems and promote ecosystem sustainability. In recent years, a series of ERPs have been implemented to enhance vegetation cover in the unique alpine ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, the current assessment of the ecological benefits of ERPs is relatively single, and the scale and extent of future ecological restoration project implementation cannot be determined. We quantified trends in normalized vegetation index (NDVI) since the implementation of ERPs. Changes in four major ecosystem services were assessed before and after ERPs implementation, including wind erosion protection, soil retention, water yield, and net primary productivity (NPP). The relationship between NDVI and ecosystem services was further explored using a constraint line approach to identify NDVI as a threshold reference for ERPs implementation. The results showed that: (1) since the implementation of ERPs, 21.80% of the regional NDVI of the QTP has increased significantly. (2) After the implementation of ERPs, the average total ecosystem services index (TES) increased from 0.269 in 2000 to 0.285 in 2020. The average soil retention and water yield increased but the NPP and sandstorm prevention decreased slightly. (3) NDVI had no significant constraint effect on soil retention and NPP, but there was a significant constraint effect on wind erosion prevention and water yield. (4) The constraint line of NDVI on TES was S-shaped. After the implementation of ERPs, the TES gradually reached a threshold value when NDVI was 0.65-0.75. Our findings identify significant contributions of ERPs and thresholds for the constraining effects of vegetation cover on ecosystem services, which can inform sustainable ERPs for governments.

A meta-analysis reveals increases in soil organic carbon following the restoration and recovery of croplands in Southwest China

In China, the Grain for Green Program (GGP) is an ambitious project to convert croplands into natural vegetation, but exactly how changes in vegetation translate into changes in soil organic carbon remains less clear. Here we conducted a meta-analysis using 734 observations to explore the effects of land recovery on soil organic carbon and nutrients in four provinces in Southwest China. Following GGP, the soil organic carbon content (SOCc) and soil organic carbon stock (SOCs) increased by 33.73% and 22.39%, respectively, compared with the surrounding croplands. Similarly, soil nitrogen increased, while phosphorus decreased. Outcomes were heterogeneous, but depended on variations in soil and environmental characteristics. Both the regional land use and cover change indicated by the landscape type transfer matrix and net primary production from 2000 to 2020 further confirmed that the GGP promoted the forest area and regional mean net primary production. Our findings suggest that the GGP could enhance soil and vegetation carbon sequestration in Southwest China and help to develop a carbon-neutral strategy.

Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving mechanism of land degradation sensitivity in Northwest China

Northwest China has been experiencing severe land degradation for a long time due to various natural and social elements. Evaluating and analyzing the process of occurrence and driving mechanism of land degradation sensitivity in this area is crucial for enhancing the local ecological environment. In this study, 18 social and environmental elements were used to construct a land degradation sensitivity index (LDSI) evaluation system in the area from vegetation, climate, management, soil, and geomorphology five factors. The spatio-temporal characteristics of LDSI in Northwest China from 2000 to 2020 were evaluated on the basis of analyzing the developmental changes of each factor. Correlation analysis and multiscale geographical weighting regression (MGWR) were used to reveal the driving mechanism of land degradation sensitivity. The results indicated a high level of land degradation sensitivity in Northwest China, with >66 % of the area (190.96 × 104 km2) in the critical sensitive class from 2000 to 2020. But the land degradation sensitivity decreased in 18.52 % of the area (53.58 × 104 km2) from 2000 to 2020, the overall trend was weakening. The spatial distribution mainly showed stronger sensitivity in the northwest and weaker sensitivity in the southeast. By exploring the driving mechanism of land degradation sensitivity, it was found that vegetation and climate showed a strong correlation, with a correlation coefficient >0.8. Drought resistance played a strong role in the dynamic process of land degradation. The basic dynamic elements showed some spatial variability in land degradation in different regions. This study is of significance for land degradation prevention and sustainable development in Northwest China.

Exploring watershed ecological risk bundles based on ecosystem services: A case study of Shanxi Province, China

Humans are having an increasingly profound impact on the environment along with the advent of the Anthropocene. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) as a method to quantify ecological problems can provide support for decision-makers, and it is one of key issues to integrate ecosystem services into ERA. In this study, an ERA framework was proposed under the loss-probability paradigm from the perspective of ecosystem services risk bundles. The results showed that initiatives aimed at ecological protection in Shanxi Province had been effective, the number of watersheds with low-risk bundles increased significantly (from 16.09% to 34.49%) and the watersheds basically overlapped with key forestation areas. However, the effects of forestation activities may no longer be as significant as they once were, as the relationship between forestation and water supply was becoming increasingly contradictory. Meanwhile, the conflict between urban expansion and natural ecosystem protection was intensifying, habitat degradation risks were gradually polarized, and the risk bundles dominated by high carbon emission and habitat degradation were increasing significantly (from 15.88% to 33.54%). Strengthening the construction of urban green space and controlling the expansion of human activities may be the next focus of ecological conservation in Shanxi Province. This study enriched the ERA framework with an ecosystem services risk bundle approach.

The feedback of greening on local hydrothermal conditions in Northern China

Northern China has experienced a significant increase in vegetation cover over the past few decades. It lacks a comprehensive understanding of how greening impacts local hydrothermal conditions. To address this issue, in our study, the RegCM-CLM45 model was used to conduct a thorough assessment of the impacts of greening on temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), precipitation, and soil moisture. The findings revealed that the local climatic effects of greening varied across different drought gradients based on the aridity index (AI). In drier regions with AI<0.3, the increased energy induced by greening tended to dissipate as sensible heat, exacerbating both warming and drought conditions. Conversely, in wetter regions with AI>0.3, a greater proportion of energy was lost through evapotranspiration, attenuating warming. Additionally, greening enhanced precipitation and soil moisture in drier regions and moderated their decline in wetter regions. Significantly, our research emphasized the effectiveness of grassland expansion and conservation as prime strategies for ecological restoration, particularly in drylands, where they could effectively alleviate soil drought. Given the diverse responses of different land cover transformations to local hydrothermal conditions in drylands, there is an urgent need to address potential adverse effects arising from inappropriate ecological restoration strategies and to develop an optimal restoration framework for the future.

High resolution spatiotemporal modeling of long term anthropogenic nutrient discharge in China

High-resolution integration of large-scale and long-term anthropogenic nutrient discharge data is crucial for understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of pollution and identifying intervention points for pollution mitigation. Here, we establish the MEANS-ST1.0 dataset, which has a high spatiotemporal resolution and encompasses anthropogenic nutrient discharge data collected in China from 1980 to 2020. The dataset includes five components, namely, urban residential, rural residential, industrial, crop farming, and livestock farming, with a spatial resolution of 1 km and a temporal resolution of monthly. The data are available in three formats, namely, GeoTIFF, NetCDF and Excel, catering to GIS users, researchers and policymakers in various application scenarios, such as visualization and modelling. Additionally, rigorous quality control was performed on the dataset, and its reliability was confirmed through cross-scale validation and literature comparisons at the national and regional levels. These data offer valuable insights for further modelling the interactions between humans and the environment and the construction of a digital Earth.

Long-Term Effects of Ecological Restoration Projects on Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Interactions: A Case Study of Hainan Tropical Forest Park in China

Ecological restoration projects aim to comprehensively intervene in damaged or deteriorating ecosystems, restore them, improve the provision of ecosystem services, and achieve harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. Implementing ecological restoration projects leads to continuous changes in land use/land cover. Studying the long-term changes in land use/land cover and their impacts on ecosystem services, as well as the trade-off and synergy between these services, helps evaluate the long-term effectiveness of ecological restoration projects in restoring ecosystems. Therefore, this study analyzes the land use/land cover, and ecosystem services of the Hainan Tropical Forest Park in China to address this. Since 2000, the area has undergone multiple ecological restoration projects, divided roughly into two stages: 2003-2013 and 2013-2021. The InVEST model is used to quantify three essential ecosystem services in mountainous regions (water yield, carbon storage, and soil conservation), and redundancy analysis identifies the primary driving factors influencing their changes. We conducted spatial autocorrelation analysis to examine the interplay among ecosystem services under long-term land use/land cover change. The results indicate a decrease in the total supply of water yield (-5.14%) and carbon storage (-3.21%) in the first phase. However, the second phase shows an improvement in ecosystem services, with an increase in the total supply of water yield (11.45%), carbon storage (27.58%), and soil conservation (21.95%). The redundancy analysis results reveal that land use/land cover are the primary driving factors influencing the changes in ecosystem services. Furthermore, there is a shift in the trade-off and synergy between ecosystem services at different stages, with significant differences in spatial distribution. The findings of this study provide more spatially targeted suggestions for the restoration and management of tropical montane rainforests in the future.

Sand fixation and human activities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau for ecological conservation and sustainable development

The sand fixation ecosystem services and human activities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) play a crucial role in local sustainable development and ecosystem health, with significant implications for surrounding regions and the global ecological environment. We employed an improved integrated wind erosion modeling system (IWEMS) model for the QTP to simulate sand fixation quantities under the unique low temperature and low pressure conditions prevalent on the plateau. Using the human footprint index (HFI), the intensity of human activities on the plateau was quantified. Additionally, an econometric model was constructed to analyze the impacts of the natural factors, the HFI, and policy factors on the sand fixation capacity. The results revealed that the average sand fixation quantity was 1368.0 t/km2/a, with a standard deviation of 1725.4 t/km2/a, and the highest value during the study period occurred in 2003. The average value of the HFI for 2020 was 6.69 with a standard deviation of 6.61, and the HFI exhibited a continuous growth trend from 2000 to 2020. Despite this growth, the average human activity intensity remained at a low level, with over 50 % of the area having an index value of <4.84. Overall, a strong negative correlation was observed between the sand fixation ecological capacity and the HFI on the QTP. However, extensive regions exhibited high values or low values for both indicators. The sand fixation capacity on the QTP is influenced by both natural and human factors. In light of these findings, suggestions are made for optimizing protected area design, rational control of human activity scales, and targeted human activity aggregation within certain regions as part of ecological conservation strategies. This study has implications for assessing sand fixation ecological functions in high-altitude regions and enhancing sand fixation capacity within the region, providing valuable practical guidance.

Understanding ecological restoration potential: The role of water resources and slope gradient limits

Ecological restoration is one of the most feasible ways to mitigate climate change and conserve ecosystems. However, the scope, intensity, effectiveness, and future potential of ecological restoration are restricted by unfavorable environmental conditions, especially limited water resources and complex topography. This paper proposes an assessment framework of ecological restoration potential under the coupled limits of water resources and slope gradient to quantitatively assess ecological restoration potential (ERP) under these two limiting factors. Results indicate that the current vegetation plantation in 20%, 0.19% and 32% areas of China's 31 provinces are larger, equal, and lower than the vegetation threshold permitted by local water resources respectively, which represents about 0.299 billion ha potential for additional restoration area. The ecological restoration potential under the integrated water resources and slope gradient constraints is 0.4 Pg C, less than half (47%) of the potential under the single limit of water resources (0.856 Pg C). However, this potential and China's existing carbon sink capacity related to terrestrial ecosystems is estimated to offset up to 8% of its current carbon dioxide emissions. Ecological restoration programs in areas with slope >5° will require additional economic investment to support Soil and Water Conservation programs, estimated to average about 212 trillion yuan. Succinctly, it is critical to integrate field investigations, process-based assessments and landscape design for sustainable ecological restoration. This work can provide techniques support for quantitative measurement of ecological restoration potential considering multiple limiting factors and guidance for sustainable implementation of ecological restoration programs.

Exploring the supply and demand imbalance of carbon and carbon-related ecosystem services for dual‑carbon goal ecological management in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt

The measurement of carbon and carbon-related ecosystem services (CCESs) has garnered considerable global attention, primarily due to dual‑carbon goals, which are crucial for the rational allocating of ecosystem service (ES) resources and the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sinks. This study developed a novel research framework on CCESs to quantitatively measure carbon storage (CS), food production (FS), habitat quality (HQ), soil conservation (SC), and water yield (WY), and examined the spatiotemporal patterns of the supply-demand and trade-off/synergy processes related to CCESs in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB). The findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the supply-demand of the CCESs generally increased, except for carbon storage and food demand. Overall, the supply level of the CCESs exceeds the demand level, with a median ratio of supply and demand ratio (ESDR) of 1.13. (2) During the study period, the synergy relationship of the CCESs is mainly determined by the supply side of the CS-HQ and CS-SC, while on the demand side, it is determined by the CD- FD. And the ESDR of all C-related ecosystem services showed a significant synergy strengthening with CS in the HREEB. (3) Spatially, "high-low" spatial matching of the ESDR decreased, suggesting a gradual reduction in the spatial mismatch of CCESs. (4) We identified seven ecological functional zones and proposed corresponding strategies for promoting ecological management. Our research emphasized the spatiotemporal patterns of supply and demand imbalance in CCESs and the spatial optimization paths of trade-offs/synergies, providing valuable insights for achieving regional dual‑carbon goals.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and socio-ecological determinants of ecosystem service interplays in Shandong Province's coastal region (2000-2020): Implications for environmental protection and sustainable ecosystem management

The sustainable management of multiple concurrent ecosystem services (ESs) requires a comprehensive understanding of the interconnections between various ESs. In this study, we develop spatial maps for six distinct ESs using a variety of models, and we quantify their trade-offs, synergies, and bundling patterns through spatial mapping and statistical methodologies. We further delve into the antagonistic and synergistic dynamics between different ESs within each Ecosystem Service Bundle (ESB), and employ GeoDetector to pinpoint the key drivers of each ES. Our findings reveal that: (1) The spatial distributions of ESs are heterogeneous, with most ESs exhibiting a downward trend except for GP and SC, which are on the rise. CS shows positive correlations with all other five ES indicators. HQ exhibits positive correlations with SC and RS, whereas negative correlations are observed between HQ-GP and WC-RS. Six ES pairs demonstrate a decline in synergistic relationships, but an increase in trade-off relationships. (2) We distinguish six types of ESBs, each differing in their combination and extent of ES provision. The trade-offs and synergies within these distinct ESBs display both commonalities and differences. In certain ESBs, supply services display synergistic relationships with other ESs. We leverage ES bundles as the foundation for studying spatial planning zoning, revealing a diversity in the interactions between different ES pairs and the driving factors of ES. Therefore, we establish the theoretical basis for formulating spatial planning on the interrelationships and drivers of ES under spatial and temporal changes. We anticipate that our findings will offer valuable scientific insight for the development of future ecological conservation and spatial planning strategies in the region.

Exploring the interrelations and driving factors among typical ecosystem services in the Yangtze river economic Belt, China

Exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecosystem services (ESs) and their drivers is crucial for managers to develop significant scientific policies that further sustainable development. We used the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to explore the trends, hotspots, and drivers of water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), and food supply (FS) between 2000 and 2020. Similarly, we analyzed relationships among ESs and drivers of the multiple ecosystem services landscape index (MESLI). We used the self-organizing map method to obtain the types and distribution of the ES bundles, revealing the bundles, trade-offs, and synergies among ESs. The four ESs had an increasing trend, with CS having the highest increase; ES hotspot analysis showed differences among upper, middle, and lower reaches. Constraint lines among ESs and drivers were diverse; the corresponding SC and WY reached thresholds when CS values were 1477.81 and 460.5 t km-2, respectively. When FS values were 67.34 and 86.17 × 104 Yuan·km-2, CS and WY reached their thresholds. All critical drivers of the four ESs were natural factors. The thresholds that the MESLI reached with driver status were 1000 mm (evapotranspiration), 2121 mm (precipitation), 2.42° (slope), 1.46% (soil organic matter), 36.08% (sand), 30.75% (proportion of non-agricultural population), 18.57% (cropland proportion), 1.05 × 104 persons·km-2 (population density), and 84.84% (proportion of non-agricultural industries in total gross domestic product), respectively. FS, water supply, and ecological conservation bundles changed over the 20 years, and trade-offs and synergies among ESs within bundles differed. We revealed the complexity of ESs from multiple perspectives, which will enable the development of ecosystem management and conservation recommendations for the YREB and large-scale economic zones worldwide.

Assessing and decoupling ecosystem services evolution in karst areas: A multi-model approach to support land management decision-making

Incorporating Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) into land use planning provides a fresh perspective for informed land management decisions. ESV, influenced by socio-economic and natural factors, has complex driving mechanisms, particularly in China's southwestern karst regions. Studying mediating variables helps elucidate these mechanisms. Further research into ecosystem services interactions and effective land use policies in karst areas is needed. This study evaluates the ESV of Guizhou Province, located in southern China's karst region, using the benefit transfer approach. Combining the Guizhou Provincial Land Use Planning Outline (2006-2020) with the multi-objective programming (MOP) model optimized by genetic algorithm and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, four future development scenarios were designed. The response of ESV to land use and land cover (LULC) changes at the county scale under four different development scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and in the future was analyzed. A partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was used to decouple the driving mechanism affecting ESV. The results show that over the past two decades, with the implementation of various ecological restoration projects, the total ESV has increased. The ESV for natural development scenarios, ecological conservation scenarios, economic development scenarios, and sustainable development scenarios are CNY 238.278 billion, CNY 400.514 billion, CNY 283.201 billion, and CNY 323.615 billion, respectively. The direct impacts of karst surface characteristic factors (KSCF), meteorological factors (MF), socio-economic factors (SEF) and transportation location factors (TLF) on ESV are positive (0.098), negative (-0.098), positive (0.336), and positive (0.109) respectively. The total effect of KSCF on ESV through influencing socio-economic factors and LULC is (-0.738), with SEF playing a complete mediating role. MF indirectly affect ESV by influencing LULC, with LULC playing a complete mediating role in this process. The PLS-SEM model shows that under the dominant position of LULC, the interaction between natural environmental factors and socio-economic factors on ESV is very complex. This study offers valuable insights that can guide managers in this region, as well as in other karst regions globally, in the development of sustainable land use policies.

Measuring ecosystem services supply and demand in rural areas: cases from China's key counties to receive assistance in pursuing rural revitalization

There is a considerable challenge to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of ending poverty and maintaining ecosystems' function in rural areas, largely due to that the rural people's livelihood relied heavily on fragile ecosystems. China is ambitious to solve this issue by enacting economic stimulus policies such as ecological protection compensation and payment for ecosystem services (ESs). However, these interventions are generally based on stockholders' willingness and lack of scientific basis. Here, we firstly combined InVEST model and social-economic data to evaluate the ecosystem services supply and demand (ESSD), by taking 25 key counties to receive assistance in pursuing rural revitalization in Sichuan province as the study cases. The coupling coordination degree model was then employed to measure the coordination relationship of ESSD. Finally, the driving factors were analyzed based on correlation analysis and stepwise regression method. The results showed that all ESs, except carbon sequestration, were oversupplied with significant spatial heterogeneity. From 2000 to 2020, the supply of all ESs increased, in which the food production had the most notable increase ratio amounting to 48.20%, while the demand of water retention and air purification decreased substantially. Due to the inconsistency between cultivated land area and population changes, significant spatial heterogeneity existed in the coordination relationship of food production. The counties with the highest and the lowest annual average coordination index were Yanyuan (0.9950) and Rangtang (0.1208), respectively. The rural employees and the agricultural gross output value were the key positive factors influencing the quantity and coordination of ESSD, while ecological compensation and financial expenditure had no significant impact, further indicating that these policies were not linked to the performance of ecosystems' function. Finally, policy implications were raised. This study provides a scientific framework for enacting the interventions towards ecological sustainability and poverty ending from ESSD perspective.

Benefits, potential and risks of China's grassland ecosystem conservation and restoration

Severe threats from ongoing degradation undermine the grasslands to support ecosystem services, biodiversity, and human well-being. Unfortunately, grasslands are often underappreciated and ignored in sustainable development agendas. Despite a series of projects for Grassland Ecosystem Conservation and Restoration (GECR) been implemented in China, the effects and cost-effectiveness of these efforts remain uncertain and untested. Therefore, we developed an integrated assessment framework to evaluate the benefits of GECR, considering ecological value accounting and input-output efficiency estimation. Additionally, we projected potential and risk areas for GECR in the future. The results showed that in 2020, the annual ecological value of China's grassland ecosystem was CNY 246 trillion. The investment in GECR exceeded CNY 7 billion, leading to an ecological benefit of CNY 3478 billion, with an input-output ratio of 1:446. Over the past 20 years, GECR positively impacted nearly 90 % of China's grassland. Furthermore, grasslands in southern provinces with favorable hydrothermal conditions exhibited significantly higher GECR efficiency, boasting an input-output ratio of >1:2000. The arid and semi-arid northern grasslands and the alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau, despite being the main regions for animal husbandry development and GECR, exhibited comparatively lower efficiency and input-output ratio in GECR. Moreover, the central and northwest parts of Tibet showed higher potential and lower risk, indicating their greatest likelihood of benefiting from GECR in the future. Meanwhile, Hulunbeier and Inner Mongolia deserve more special attention to reverse degradation and mitigate climate change due to their lower potential and higher risks. Our study provides an important basis for prioritizing and implementing effective and sustainable GECR treatment methods.

Exploring spatial-temporal driving factors for changes in multiple ecosystem services and their relationships in West Liao River Basin, China

Ecosystem services (ES) are the direct and indirect benefits people obtain from ecosystems, serving as a bridge linking ecological systems and social-economic systems. The quantitative assessment of the dynamic changes in ES and their relationships and the identification of the driving forces behind them have recently become a research hotspot. However, several research gaps remain challenging, such as the lack of an analytical framework for selecting relevant driving factors and the need for an innovative approach that integrally estimates the impacts of driving factors on the changes in ES and the relationships between ES. In this study, we modify the social-ecological system framework as the analytical basis and suggest a series of principles for selecting relevant driving factors, we then adopt the path analysis model to simultaneously and consistently quantify the contributions of driving factors to ES changes and their relationships. Using the West Liao River Basin (WLRB) as a case study, the results show the spatial-temporal variations in three ES and six driving factors from 2000 to 2020, divided into four periods. The estimation of path analysis model confirm two hypotheses that different driving factors exerted differential effects on changes in multiple ES in four periods for the whole WLRB and in three sub-basins for the period 2015-2020. In addition, the path analysis exhibits the quantitative relationships between food production, water yield, and soil conservation, which vary temporally and spatially in different periods and different sub-basins. The identification of driving factors is helpful for supporting policy-making to construct a coupled self-adjusted social-ecological for the benefit of the public.

Sustainable poverty alleviation through forests: Pathways and strategies

Forests are the most productive terrestrial ecosystems across the world. They can play both a direct and indirect role in global poverty alleviation through their social, economic and environmental functions. However, the potential of forests in poverty alleviation is underestimated to a great extent. Sustainability, the most essential advantage and characteristic of forests for poverty alleviation, has not been fully recognized. To that end, we propose the concept of sustainable poverty alleviation through forests (SPAF). This concept shifts the vision of poverty alleviation through forests from a narrow focus on subsistence and livelihood to a sustainable poverty alleviation that promotes all dimensions of human development. There is abundant evidence that forests can at least contribute to sustainable poverty alleviation through a synergy of seven pathways: subsistence materials, health, income, employment, women's empowerment, climate change mitigation and biodiversity, which are highly consistent with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. SPAF also faces enormous implementation challenges, so a sustainable global strategy is urgently needed to provide direction for worldwide poverty alleviation at the crossroads of nature and humanity.

An integrated approach to assess spatial and temporal changes in the contribution of the ecosystem to sustainable development goals over 20 years in China

Ecosystems are an important basis for promoting sustainable development goals (SDGs) through the provision of stable ecosystem services (ESs). In the past 20 years, China has implemented a series of forestry ecological development projects, resulting in the improvement of the ecological environment. In this context, changes in ESs in China may affect the contribution of ecosystems to the SDGs, but there is a lack of research in this area. Studies have shown that ESs can support multiple SDGs, and quantifying the contribution of ecosystems to SDGs is currently a research focus. However, few studies have quantified the extent of the contribution of different ESs to the SDGs, although these differences are generally assumed. To narrow this knowledge gap, we construct an assessment approach that integrates the extent of the contribution of different ESs to the SDGs and assesses the temporal and spatial dynamics of the contribution of ESs to the SDGs in China from 2000 to 2020. Our analysis results indicate that during the study period, fractional vegetation cover improved in China. In general, water provision, soil conservation, and food provision services improved, while carbon storage and biodiversity maintenance services declined. The contribution capacity of provincial ecosystems to the SDGs increased, except in Tibet, between 2000 and 2020. Overall, the contributions to the SDGs had obvious spatial differences. The research results can support policy formulation and research on ES management and SDGs.