Vegetation resilience assessment and its climatic driving factors: Evidence from surface coal mines in northern China

Vegetation resilience is a key concept for understanding ecosystem responses to disturbances and is essential for maintaining ecosystem sustainability. However, assessing vegetation resilience remains challenging, especially for areas with significant disturbances and ecological restoration, such as surface coal mine ecosystems. Vegetation resilience assessment requires a combination of disturbance magnitude, recovery magnitude, and recovery time. In this study, we propose a vegetation resilience assessment method by integrating disturbance magnitude, recovery magnitude and recovery time. Forty-six surface coal mines in northern China were analysed as the study areas. A geographical detector model was used to explore the influence of climatic factors on vegetation resilience. The results indicated that the vegetation resilience curves included three shapes, inverted U-shaped, S-shaped, and monotonically decreasing, and the different disturbance-recovery relationships of the curves indicated that natural and social factors jointly changed the ecological restoration process. The vegetation resilience of the 46 surface coal mines varies widely, ranging from 0.87 to 7.22, showing a spatial decreasing trend from east to west. The explanatory power of different climatic factors on vegetation resilience by indirectly affecting hydrothermal conditions varies, with the effect of atmospheric pressure being the most significant and the superposition of the two climatic factors enhancing the effect on vegetation resilience. This study enriches the understanding of vegetation resilience assessment and provides important information to guide the differentiation of ecological restoration and resource development of surface coal mines in different regions.

Shifting the paradigm: The role of introduced plants in the resiliency of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Current ecological communities are in a constant state of flux from climate change and from species introductions. Recent discussion has focused on the positive roles introduced species can play in ecological communities and on the importance of conserving resilient ecosystems, but not how these two ideas intersect. There has been insufficient work to define the attributes needed to support ecosystem resilience to climate change in modern communities. Here, I argue that non-invasive, introduced plant species could play an important role in supporting the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Using examples from multiple taxonomic groups and ecosystems, I discuss how introduced plants can contribute to ecosystem resilience via their roles in plant and insect communities, as well as their associated ecosystem functions. I highlight the current and potential contributions of introduced plants and where there are critical knowledge gaps. Determining when and how introduced plants are contributing to the resilience of ecosystems to climate change will contribute to effective conservation strategies.

The effect of grazing and reclamation on rodent community stability in the Alxa desert

Ecosystem stability has been of increasing interest in the past several decades as it helps predict the consequences of anthropogenic disturbances on ecosystems. A wild rodent community under reclamation and different grazing disturbances in the Alxa Desert was investigated using live trapping from 2006 to 2011. We studied the rodent community composition, community diversity, and variability of different life history strategies. These results showed that reclamation reduced rodent community stability by increasing temporal variability of community, reducing rodent community resistance as shown by decreasing dominance of KSS strategists, and increased the resistance variability of the rodent community by increasing the variability of abundance and richness for KSS strategists. Grazing reduced rodent community resilience by reducing the dominance of rRF strategists, and increased the resilience variability of the rodent community by increasing the variability of abundance and richness for rRF strategists. Those results may answer the three ecological questions about how ecosystems respond to disturbances from a diversity perspective. The ecosystems with intermediate disturbance are more stable, in other words, with higher resistance and resilience. The increase of KSS strategists means the increase of resistance of the community. The increase of rRF strategists means the increase of community resilience.

Radial growth of Korshinsk peashrub and its response to drought in different sub-arid climate regions of northwest China

The increased frequency and intensity of droughts have seriously affected the stability of plantation ecosystems in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Caragana korshinskii Kom. was the dominant afforested shrub species in this region. Evaluating the radial growth of C. korshinskii and its response to drought can provide valuable information for sustainable management of plantations in the context of climate change. In this study, based on 237 shrub C. korshinskii annual ring samples from nine sites in different climate regions, we investigated the response of C. korshinskii radial growth to climate (temperature, precipitation, and monthly resolved standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI_01)), and evaluated the differences between them using calculated indices of drought resistance, recovery, and resilience. The results demonstrate that the radial growth of C. korshinskii was mainly limited by drought stress in the previous September in arid regions and in March and June in semi-arid regions, whereas C. korshinskii in semi-humid regions was less influenced by drought stress. Recovery after drought decreased with increasing resistance, and resilience increased significantly with increasing resistance and recovery. Differences in precipitation were found to be the main factor generating variations in shrub resilience; with an increase in precipitation, the recovery and resilience after drought gradually increased. For plantation management, this study suggests that efficient utilization of precipitation resources and site-specific afforestation in different climate and site conditions may help to enhance resilience and improve the ecological service function of plantation forests in the Loess Plateau.

Vegetation Changing Patterns and Its Sensitivity to Climate Variability across Seven Major Watersheds in China

Climate changes have profound impacts on vegetation and further alter hydrological processes through transpiration, interception, and evaporation. This study investigated vegetation's changing patterns and its sensitivity to climate variability across seven major watersheds in China based on a hybrid regionalization approach and a novel, empirical index-Vegetation Sensitivity Index (VSI). Vegetation showed linearly increasing trends in most of the seven watersheds, while decreases in vegetation were mostly found in the source regions of the Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) and Yellow River Basin (YRB), the forest and grassland areas of the Songhua River Basin (SHRB) and Liao River Basin (LRB), the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta during the growing season. The selected watersheds can be categorized into 11 sub-regions, and the regionalization result was consistent with the topography and vegetation types; the characteristics of vegetation dynamics were more homogeneous among sub-regions. Vegetation types such as forests and shrubland in the central parts of the YZRB were relatively more vulnerable to climate variations than the grasslands and alpine meadows and tundra (AMT) in the source regions of the YZRB and YRB and the Loess Plateau of the YRB. In arid and semi-arid regions, precipitation had a profound impact on vegetation, while, at low latitudes, solar radiation was the main controlling factor. Such comprehensive investigations of the vegetation-climate relationship patterns across various watersheds are expected to provide a foundation for the exploration of future climate change impacts on ecosystems at the watershed scale.

Limited Acclimation in Leaf Morphology and Anatomy to Experimental Drought in Temperate Forest Species

Simple Summary

Climate change shown to have a significant impact on the forest ecosystem due to increased and more frequent occurrence of extreme drought. However, in order to successfully adjust to the xeric environments, plants can usually adopt a variety of adaptation strategies. Here, we investigated the morpho-anatomical traits and biomass allocation patterns as acclimation mechanisms in drought conditions. We found that the interrelation between leaf morphological and anatomical traits were equally affected by drought conditions across all species. This suggests that there is no convincing evidence to classify taxa based on drought resistance vs. drought tolerance. However, based on the biomass allocation pattern, we found that P. koraiensis and F. mandshurica had the higher RMF and total PB, but lower LFM, suggesting higher drought tolerance than those of the other species. Therefore, our dataset revealed some easily measurable traits, such as LMF, RMF, and PB, which demonstrated the seedling’s ability to cope with drought and which could be utilized to choose drought-tolerant species for reforestation in the temperate forest.

Abstract

Drought is a critical and increasingly common abiotic factor that has impacts on plant structures and functioning and is a challenge for the successful management of forest ecosystems. Here, we test the shifts in leaf morpho-anatomical or hydraulic traits and plant growth above ground caused by drought. A factorial experiment was conducted with two gymnosperms (Larix gmelinii and Pinus koraiensis) and two angiosperms (Fraxinus mandshurica and Tilia amurensis), tree species grown under three varying drought intensities in NE China. Considering all the species studied, the plant height (PH), root collar diameter (RCD), and plant biomass (PB) were significantly decreased by drought. The leaf thickness (LT) increased, while the leaf area (LA) decreased with drought intensity. In the gymnosperms, the mesophyll thickness (MT) increased, and the resin duct decreased, while in the angiosperms the palisade mesophyll thickness (PMT), the spongy mesophyll thickness (SMT), and the abaxial (ABE) and adaxial epidermis (ADE) thickness were increased by drought. The correlation analysis revealed that P. koraiensis and F. mandshurica had the higher RMF and total plant biomass, but the least LMF, suggesting drought tolerance. In contrast, the L. gmelinii had the least RMF and higher LMF, suggesting vulnerability to drought. Similarly, T. amurensis had the higher leaf size, which increased the evaporative demand and depleted the soil water quickly relative to the other species. The interrelation among the morpho-anatomical leaf traits was equally affected by drought across all the studied species, suggesting that there is no clear evidence to differentiate the taxa based on drought resistance vs. drought tolerance. Thus, we have identified some easily measurable traits (i.e., LMF, RMF, and PB) which evidenced the seedling’s ability to cope with drought and which therefore could be used as proxies in the selection of drought tolerant species for reforestation in the temperate forest.

Life history mediates the trade-offs among different components of demographic resilience

Accelerating rates of biodiversity loss underscore the need to understand how species achieve resilience-the ability to resist and recover from a/biotic disturbances. Yet, the factors determining the resilience of species remain poorly understood, due to disagreements on its definition and the lack of large-scale analyses. Here, we investigate how the life history of 910 natural populations of animals and plants predicts their intrinsic ability to be resilient. We show that demographic resilience can be achieved through different combinations of compensation, resistance and recovery after a disturbance. We demonstrate that these resilience components are highly correlated with life history traits related to the species' pace of life and reproductive strategy. Species with longer generation times require longer recovery times post-disturbance, whilst those with greater reproductive capacity have greater resistance and compensation. Our findings highlight the key role of life history traits to understand species resilience, improving our ability to predict how natural populations cope with disturbance regimes.

A Review of Village Ecosystem Vulnerability and Resilience: Implications for the Rocky Desertification Control

Under the background of global environmental change, a huge impact has been made on the village ecosystem, which leads to disorder of structure and function of the village ecosystem. The current management measures of the village have failed in allowing the village to achieve sustainable development. Research on the vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem is helpful in regards to the ecological restoration of the village. The research status and progress in regards to the vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem are not clear, and the summary of research results and problems is insufficient. Based on 87 related literatures, this paper focuses on the current status and progress of village ecosystem vulnerability and resilience research, and reveals the current research results and shortcomings of village ecosystem vulnerability and resilience. We found that: (1) the research on vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem is on the rise; (2) the research mainly focuses on the index system, monitoring and assessment, mechanism research and strategy research. The monitoring and assessment research is the most prominent, which mainly discusses the research methods, the vulnerability and the resilience of the village ecosystem; (3) the study area is mainly concentrated in Asia, North America and Africa. Research institutions are mainly institutions of higher learning and research institutes (centers). Finally, this paper finds that major scientific and technical studies such as the construction of indicator systems and the study of governance strategies in the study of vulnerability and resilience of village ecosystems are lagging behind. In future research, we should deepen the research on the concept and connotation of vulnerability and resilience. We must establish a scientific and reasonable research framework for vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem. We should also strengthen and improve the index system of vulnerability and resilience of the village ecosystem. We should strengthen research on the impact mechanisms and governance strategies of vulnerability and resilience, and apply the research on vulnerability and resilience to the planning and governance of the village ecosystem.

Review: biological engineering for nature-based climate solutions

Nature-based Climate Solutions are landscape stewardship techniques to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase soil or biomass carbon sequestration. These mitigation approaches to climate change present an opportunity to supplement energy sector decarbonization and provide co-benefits in terms of ecosystem services and landscape productivity. The biological engineering profession must be involved in the research and implementation of these solutions-developing new tools to aid in decision-making, methods to optimize across different objectives, and new messaging frameworks to assist in prioritizing among different options. Furthermore, the biological engineering curriculum should be redesigned to reflect the needs of carbon-based landscape management. While doing so, the biological engineering community has an opportunity to embed justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion within both the classroom and the profession. Together these transformations will enhance our capacity to use sustainable landscape management as an active tool to mitigate the risks of climate change.

Global patterns of resilience decline in vertebrate populations

Maintaining the resilience of natural populations, their ability to resist and recover from disturbance, is crucial to prevent biodiversity loss. However, the lack of appropriate data and quantitative tools has hampered our understanding of the factors determining resilience on a global scale. Here, we quantified the temporal trends of two key components of resilience-resistance and recovery-in >2000 population time-series of >1000 vertebrate species globally. We show that the number of threats to which a population is exposed is the main driver of resilience decline in vertebrate populations. Such declines are driven by a non-uniform loss of different components of resilience (i.e. resistance and recovery). Increased anthropogenic threats accelerating resilience loss through a decline in the recovery ability-but not resistance-of vertebrate populations. These findings suggest we may be underestimating the impacts of global change, highlighting the need to account for the multiple components of resilience in global biodiversity assessments.

Building Robust Assemblages of Bacteria in the Human Gut in Early Life

The neonatal body provides a range of potential habitats, such as the gut, for microbes. These sites eventually harbor microbial communities (microbiotas). A "complete" (adult) gut microbiota is not acquired by the neonate immediately after birth. Rather, the exclusive, milk-based nutrition of the infant encourages the assemblage of a gut microbiota of low diversity, usually dominated by bifidobacterial species. The maternal fecal microbiota is an important source of bacterial species that colonize the gut of infants, at least in the short-term. However, development of the microbiota is influenced by the use of human milk (breast feeding), infant formula, preterm delivery of infants, caesarean delivery, antibiotic administration, family details and other environmental factors. Following the introduction of weaning (complementary) foods, the gut microbiota develops in complexity due to the availability of a diversity of plant glycans in fruits and vegetables. These glycans provide growth substrates for the bacterial families (such as members of the Ruminococcaceae and Lachnospiraceae) that, in due course, will dominate the gut microbiota of the adult. Although current data are often fragmentary and observational, it can be concluded that the nutrition that a child receives in early life is likely to impinge not only on the development of the microbiota at that time but also on the subsequent lifelong, functional relationships between the microbiota and the human host. The purpose of this review, therefore, is to discuss the importance of promoting the assemblage of functionally robust gut microbiotas at appropriate times in early life.

A Systematic Review on the Integration of Remote Sensing and GIS to Forest and Grassland Ecosystem Health Attributes, Indicators, and Measures

It is important to protect forest and grassland ecosystems because they are ecologically rich and provide numerous ecosystem services. Upscaling monitoring from local to global scale is imperative in reaching this goal. The SDG Agenda does not include indicators that directly quantify ecosystem health. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can bridge the gap for large-scale ecosystem health assessment. We systematically reviewed field-based and remote-based measures of ecosystem health for forests and grasslands, identified the most important ones and provided an overview on remote sensing and GIS-based measures. We included 163 English language studies within terrestrial non-tropical biomes and used a pre-defined classification system to extract ecological stressors and attributes, collected corresponding indicators, measures, and proxy values. We found that the main ecological attributes of each ecosystem contribute differently in the literature, and that almost half of the examined studies used remote sensing to estimate indicators. The major stressor for forests was “climate change”, followed by “insect infestation”; for grasslands it was “grazing”, followed by “climate change”. “Biotic interactions, composition, and structure” was the most important ecological attribute for both ecosystems. “Fire disturbance” was the second most important for forests, while for grasslands it was “soil chemistry and structure”. Less than a fifth of studies used vegetation indices; NDVI was the most common. There are monitoring inconsistencies from the broad range of indicators and measures. Therefore, we recommend a standardized field, GIS, and remote sensing-based approach to monitor ecosystem health and integrity and facilitate land managers and policy-makers.

Evaluation of morphological, physiological, and biochemical traits for assessing drought resistance in eleven tree species

The frequency and severity of drought are expected to increase due to climate change; therefore, selection of tree species for afforestation should consider drought resistance of the species for maximum survival and conservation of natural habitats. In this study, three soil moisture regimes: control (100% precipitation), mild drought (40% reduction in precipitation), and severe drought (80% reduction in precipitation) were applied to six gymnosperm and five angiosperm species for two consecutive years. We quantified the drought resistance index based on the root collar diameter and assessed the correlation between species drought resistance and other morphological, physiological, and biochemical traits by regression analysis. The prolonged drought stress altered the morphological, physiological, and biochemical traits, but the responses were species-specific. The species with high drought resistance had high leaf mass per area (LMA), photosynthetic rate (P_n), and midday leaf water potential (Ψ_MD), and low carbon isotopic discrimination (δ¹³C), flavonoid and polyphenol content, superoxide dismutase and DPPH radical scavenging activity. The highly drought-resistant species had a relatively less decrease in leaf size, P_n, and predawn leaf water potential (Ψ_PD), and less increase in δ¹³C, abscisic acid and sucrose content, and LMA compared to the control. The interannual variation in drought resistance (∆R_d) was positively correlated with the species hydroscopic slope (isohydric and anisohydric). Korean pine was highly resistant, sawtooth oak, hinoki cypress, East Asian white birch, East Asian ash, and mono maple were highly susceptible, and Korean red pine, Japanese larch, Sargent cherry, needle fir, and black pine were moderate in drought resistance under long-term drought. These findings will help species selection for afforestation programs and establishment of sustainable forests, especially of drought-tolerant species, under increased frequency and intensity of spring and summer droughts.

Variance of vegetation coverage and its sensitivity to climatic factors in the Irtysh River basin

Background

Climate change is an important factor driving vegetation changes in arid areas. Identifying the sensitivity of vegetation to climate variability is crucial for developing sustainable ecosystem management strategies. The Irtysh River is located in the westerly partition of China, and its vegetation cover is more sensitive to climate change. However, previous studies rarely studied the changes in the vegetation coverage of the Irtysh River and its sensitivity to climate factors from a spatiotemporal perspective.

Methods

We adopted a vegetation sensitivity index based on remote sensing datasets of high temporal resolution to study the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic factors in the Irtysh River basin, then reveal the driving mechanism of vegetation cover change.

Results

The results show that 88.09% of vegetated pixels show an increasing trend in vegetation coverage, and the sensitivity of vegetation to climate change presents spatial heterogeneity. Sensitivity of vegetation increases with the increase of coverage. Temperate steppe in the northern mountain and herbaceous swamp and broadleaf forest in the river valley, where the normalized difference vegetation index is the highest, show the strongest sensitivity, while the desert steppe in the northern plain, where the NDVI is the lowest, shows the strongest memory effect (or the strongest resilience). Relatively, the northern part of this area is more affected by a combination of precipitation and temperature, while the southern plains dominated by desert steppe are more sensitive to precipitation. The central river valley dominated by herbaceous swamp is more sensitive to temperature-vegetation dryness index. This study underscores that the sensitivity of vegetation cover to climate change is spatially differentiated at the regional scale.

Spatial and Temporal Changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Their Driving Factors in the Desert/Grassland Biome Transition Zone of the Sahel Region of Africa

The ecological system of the desert/grassland biome transition zone is fragile and extremely sensitive to climate change and human activities. Analyzing the relationships between vegetation, climate factors (precipitation and temperature), and human activities in this zone can inform us about vegetation succession rules and driving mechanisms. Here, we used Landsat series images to study changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) over this zone in the Sahel region of Africa. We selected 6315 sampling points for machine-learning training, across four types: desert, desert/grassland biome transition zone, grassland, and water bodies. We then extracted the range of the desert/grassland biome transition zone using the random forest method. We used Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling Studies (GIMMS) data and the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) meteorological assimilation data to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of NDVI and climatic factors (temperature and precipitation). We used the multiple regression residual method to analyze the contributions of human activities and climate change to NDVI. The cellular automation (CA)-Markov model was used to predict the spatial position of the desert/grassland biome transition zone. From 1982 to 2015, the NDVI and temperature increased; no distinct trend was found for precipitation. The climate change and NDVI change trends both showed spatial stratified heterogeneity. Temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on NDVI in the desert/grassland biome transition zone; precipitation and NDVI were positively correlated, and temperature and NDVI were negatively correlated. Both human activities and climate factors influenced vegetation changes. The contribution rates of human activities and climate factors to the increase in vegetation were 97.7% and 48.1%, respectively. Human activities and climate factors together contributed 47.5% to this increase. The CA-Markov model predicted that the area of the desert/grassland biome transition zone in the Sahel region will expand northward and southward in the next 30 years.

A review of social-ecological system resilience: Mechanism, assessment and management

Social-ecological system (SES) resilience involves the large information and complex relationships of nature, society and economy. To promote multi-disciplinary integration to jointly balance current well-being and long-term sustainability, it is necessary to sort resilience studies on different perspectives into a comprehensive framework to establish interdisciplinary consensus. Based on literature analysis and review, this paper presents an analytical framework for resilience in regional management, and gives a review of SES resilience studies in terms of mechanism, assessment, and management. We outline the current state of resilience research, identify the remaining challenges, and make key recommendations for future research. Our recommendations include promoting interdisciplinary consensus, emphasising dynamic adaptation processes, synthesizing multiple systems and scales, building comprehensive databases, and using mixed methods approach. The paper offers a framework for researchers, practitioners and policy makers to have a more comprehensive understanding of resilience as a whole, and thus helps navigate more fully the challenge of adapting complex resource and environmental problems.

Towards a Comparative Framework of Demographic Resilience

In the current global biodiversity crisis, the development of tools to define, quantify, compare, and predict resilience is essential for understanding the responses of species to global change. However, disparate interpretations of resilience have hampered the development of a common currency to quantify and compare resilience across natural systems. Most resilience frameworks focus on upper levels of biological organization, especially ecosystems or communities, which complicates measurements of resilience using empirical data. Surprisingly, there is no quantifiable definition of resilience at the demographic level. We introduce a framework of demographic resilience that draws on existing concepts from community and population ecology, as well as an accompanying set of metrics that are comparable across species.

The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation

In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self-organised) spatial patterns - typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self-organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre-emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.

Differential roles of species richness versus species asynchrony in regulating community stability along a precipitation gradient

Plant community may provide products and services to humans. However, patterns and drivers of community stability along a precipitation gradient remain unclear. A regional-scale transect survey was conducted over a 3-year period from 2013 to 2015, along a precipitation gradient from 275 to 555 mm and spanning 440 km in length from west to east in a temperate semiarid grassland of northern China, a central part of the Eurasian steppe. Our study provided regional-scale evidence that the community stability increased with increasing precipitation in the semiarid ecosystem. The patterns of community stability along a precipitation gradient were ascribed to community composition and community dynamics, such as species richness and species asynchrony, rather than the abiotic effect of precipitation. Species richness regulated the temporal mean (μ) of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), while species asynchrony regulated the temporal standard deviation (σ) of ANPP, which in turn contributed to community stability. Our findings highlight the crucial role of community composition and community dynamics in regulating community stability under climate change.

Shifts of the Mean Centers of Potential Vegetation Ecosystems under future climate change in Eurasia

Climate change dominantly controls the spatial distributions of potential vegetation ecosystems; the shift trends in the mean centers of potential vegetation ecosystems could be used to explain their responses to climate change. In terms of the climate observation data of Eurasia for the period from 1981 to 2010 and the climate scenario data for the period from 2011 to 2100 under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and, RCP8.5, which were released by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) ecosystem model was improved to quantitatively classify the potential vegetation types, and the shift model of mean center was adopted to compute the trends in the spatiotemporal shifts of potential vegetation types in Eurasia. The results showed that the mean centers of the major potential vegetation ecosystems would be distributed in the central and southern parts of Eurasia. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, the potential shift distances of the mean centers of the vegetation types under the RCP8.5 scenario would be the largest, and those of the polar/nival area, subpolar/alpine moist tundra, warm temperate dry forest, subtropical moist forest, cool temperate moist forest, cool temperate wet forest, subtropical wet forest, subtropical thorn woodland, warm temperate moist forest and subtropical dry forest would be larger than those in the other potential vegetation types in Eurasia. Moreover, the shift directions of the mean centers of the major potential vegetation types would generally shift northward, and subtropical dry forest, warm temperate moist forest and subpolar/alpine moist tundra would be the most sensitive to change among all vegetation types under the three scenarios for the period from 2011 to 2100.

Changes in seasonal precipitation distribution but not annual amount affect litter decomposition in a secondary tropical forest

In the tropics of South China, climate change induced more rainfall events in the wet season in the last decades. Moreover, there will be more frequently spring drought in the future. However, knowledge on how litter decomposition rate would respond to these seasonal precipitation changes is still limited. In the present study, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment in a tropical forest. First, we applied a 60% rainfall exclusion in April and May to defer the onset of wet season and added the same amount of water in October and November to mimic a deferred wet season (DW); second, we increased as much as 25% mean annual precipitation into plots in July and August to simulate a wetter wet season (WW). Five single-species litters, with their carbon to nitrogen ratio ranged from 27 to 49, and a mixed litter were used to explore how the precipitation change treatments would affect litter decomposition rate. The interaction between precipitation changes and litter species was not significant. The DW treatment marginally accelerated litter decomposition across six litter types. Detailed analysis showed that DW increased litter decomposition rate in the periods of January to March and October to December, when soil moisture was increased by the water addition in the dry season. In contrast, WW did not significantly affect litter decomposition rate, which was consistent with the unchanged soil moisture pattern. In conclusion, the study indicated that regardless of litter types or litter quality, the projected deferred wet season would increase litter decomposition rate, whereas the wetter wet season would not affect litter decomposition rate in the tropical forests. This study improves our knowledge of how tropical forest carbon cycling in response to precipitation change.

Evaluating the conservation state of the páramo ecosystem: An object-based image analysis and CART algorithm approach for central Ecuador

Ecuadorian páramo ecosystems (EPEs) function as water sources, contain large soil carbon stores and high levels of biodiversity, and support human populations. The EPEs are mainly herbaceous páramo (HP). To inform policy and management and help drive ecological science toward a better understanding of the HP ecosystem, and the relationships among its multiple ecosystem services, we asked: (1) What is the state of the HP regarding its land use/land cover (LULC)?; and (2) Is the HP being pushed away from its natural state or it is regenerating? To answer these questions, we assessed the LULC in central EPEs using Landsat 8 imagery, Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) and a Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm. Results show that two-fifths of the paramo ecosystem remain as native HP (NHP) and two-fifths as anthropogenic HP (AHP). Although the anthropic alteration of the pedogenesis of young paramo soil leads to the establishment of AHP, we found evidence of regeneration and resilience of the NHP. The results of this study will be useful to scientists and decision-makers with interest in páramo ecosystems in central Ecuador. The proposed methodology is simple, fast, and could be implemented in other landscapes to establish comprehensive monitoring systems useful in landscape assessment and planning.

Increasing sensitivity of alpine grasslands to climate variability along an elevational gradient on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Monitoring and mapping the sensitivity of grassland ecosystems to climate change is crucial for developing sustainable local grassland management strategies. The sensitivity of alpine grasslands to climate change is considered to be high on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), yet little is known about its spatial pattern, and particularly the variations between different elevations. Here, based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and three climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation), we modified a vegetation sensitivity index-approach to capture the relative sensitivity of alpine grassland productivity to climate variability on the QTP during 2000-2016. The results show that alpine grasslands on the southern QTP are more sensitive to climate variability overall, and that the climate factors driving alpine grassland dynamics are spatially heterogeneous. Alpine grasslands on the southern QTP are more sensitive to temperature variability, those on the northeastern QTP display strong responses to precipitation variability, and those on the central QTP are primarily influenced by a combination of radiation and temperature variability. The sensitivity of alpine grasslands to climate variability increases significantly along an elevational gradient, especially to temperature variability. This study underscores that alpine grasslands at higher elevations on the QTP are more sensitive to climate variability than those at lower elevations at the regional scale.

The Apparent Resilience of the Dry Tropical Forests of the Nicaraguan Region of the Central American Dry Corridor to Variations in Climate Over the Last C. 1200 Years

The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is the most densely populated area of the Central American Isthmus and is subject to the greatest variability in precipitation between seasons. The vegetation of this region is composed of Dry Tropical Forests (DTF), which are suggested to be highly susceptible to variations in climate and anthropogenic development. This study examines the vulnerability of past DTF surrounding the Asese peninsula, Nicaragua to climatic and anthropogenic disturbances over the past c. 1200 years. Past vegetation, climate, burning, and animal abundance were reconstructed using proxy analysis of fossil pollen, diatoms, macroscopic charcoal, and Sporormiella. Results from this research suggest that DTF have been highly resilient to past climatic and anthropogenic perturbations. Changes in DTF structure and composition appear to be linked to the abundance and intensity of fire. Pre-Columbian anthropogenic impacts on DTF are not detected in the record; however, DTF taxa decline slightly after European contact (1522 C.E.). Overall the DTF for the Nicaraguan region of the CADC were found to be highly resilient to both climatic and anthropogenic disturbances, suggesting that this region will continue to be resilient in the face of future population expansion and climatic variation.

A theory of pulse dynamics and disturbance in ecology

We propose four postulates as the minimum set of logical propositions necessary for a theory of pulse dynamics and disturbance in ecosystems: (1) resource dynamics characterizes the magnitude, rate, and duration of resource change caused by pulse events, including the continuing changes in resources that are the result of abiotic and biotic processes; (2) energy flux characterizes the energy flow that controls the variation in the rates of resource assimilation across ecosystems; (3) patch dynamics characterizes the distribution of resource patches over space and time, and the resulting patterns of biotic diversity, ecosystem structure, and cross-scale feedbacks of pulses processes; and (4) biotic trait diversity characterizes the evolutionary responses to pulse dynamics and, in turn, the way trait diversity affects ecosystem dynamics during and after pulse events. We apply the four postulates to an important class of pulse events, biomass-altering disturbances, and derive seven generalizations that predict disturbance magnitude, resource trajectory, rate of resource change, disturbance probability, biotic trait diversification at evolutionary scales, biotic diversity at ecological scales, and functional resilience. Ultimately, theory must define the variable combinations that result in dynamic stability, comprising resistance, recovery, and adaptation.

Tree resilience to drought increases in the Tibetan Plateau

Forests in the Tibetan Plateau are thought to be vulnerable to climate extremes, yet they also tend to exhibit resilience contributing to the maintenance of ecosystem services in and beyond the plateau. So far the spatiotemporal pattern in tree resilience in the Tibetan Plateau remains largely unquantified and the influence of specific factors on the resilience is poorly understood. Here, we study ring-width data from 849 trees at 28 sites in the Tibetan Plateau with the aim to quantify tree resilience and determine their diving forces. Three extreme drought events in years 1969, 1979, and 1995 are detected from metrological records. Regional tree resistance to the three extreme droughts shows a decreasing trend with the proportion of trees having high resistance ranging from 71.9%, 55.2%, to 39.7%. Regional tree recovery is increasing with the proportion of trees having high recovery ranging from 28.3%, 52.2%, to 64.2%. The area with high resistance is contracting and that of high recovery is expanding. The spatiotemporal resistance and recovery are associated with moisture availability and diurnal temperature range, respectively. In addition, they are both associated with forest internal factor represented by growth consistence among trees. We conclude that juniper trees in the Tibetan Plateau have increased resilience to extreme droughts in the study period. We highlight pervasive resilience in juniper trees. The results have implications for predicting tree resilience and identifying areas vulnerable to future climate extremes.