Measurement of the mutation rates of animal viruses: influenza A virus and poliovirus type 1

Natural variation in neuraminidase activity influences the evolutionary potential of the seasonal H1N1 lineage hemagglutinin

The antigenic evolution of the influenza A virus hemagglutinin (HA) gene poses a major challenge for the development of vaccines capable of eliciting long-term protection. Prior efforts to understand the mechanisms that govern viral antigenic evolution mainly focus on HA in isolation, ignoring the fact that HA must act in concert with the viral neuraminidase (NA) during replication and spread. Numerous studies have demonstrated that the degree to which the receptor-binding avidity of HA and receptor-cleaving activity of NA are balanced with each other influences overall viral fitness. We recently showed that changes in NA activity can significantly alter the mutational fitness landscape of HA in the context of a lab-adapted virus strain. Here, we test whether natural variation in relative NA activity can influence the evolutionary potential of HA in the context of the seasonal H1N1 lineage (pdmH1N1) that has circulated in humans since the 2009 pandemic. We observed substantial variation in the relative activities of NA proteins encoded by a panel of H1N1 vaccine strains isolated between 2009 and 2019. We comprehensively assessed the effect of NA background on the HA mutational fitness landscape in the circulating pdmH1N1 lineage using deep mutational scanning and observed pronounced epistasis between NA and residues in or near the receptor-binding site of HA. To determine whether NA variation could influence the antigenic evolution of HA, we performed neutralizing antibody selection experiments using a panel of monoclonal antibodies targeting different HA epitopes. We found that the specific antibody escape profiles of HA were highly contingent upon NA background. Overall, our results indicate that natural variation in NA activity plays a significant role in governing the evolutionary potential of HA in the currently circulating pdmH1N1 lineage.

Characteristics and evolution of hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes of Influenza A(H3N2) viruses in Thailand during 2015 to 2018

Background

Influenza A(H3N2) virus evolves continuously. Its hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes have high genetic variation due to the antigenic drift. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics and evolution of HA and NA genes of the influenza A(H3N2) virus in Thailand.

Methods

Influenza A positive respiratory samples from 2015 to 2018 were subtyped by multiplex real-time RT-PCR. Full-length HA and NA genes from the positive samples of influenza A(H3N2) were amplified and sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis with the maximum likelihood method was used to investigate the evolution of the virus compared with the WHO-recommended influenza vaccine strain. Homology modeling and N-glycosylation site prediction were also performed.

Results

Out of 443 samples, 147 (33.18%) were A(H1N1)pdm09 and 296 (66.82%) were A(H3N2). The A(H3N2) viruses circulating in 2015 were clade 3C.2a whereas sub-clade 3C.2a1 and 3C.2a2 dominated in 2016-2017 and 2018, respectively. Amino acid substitutions were found in all antigenic sites A, B, C, D, and E of HA but the majority of the substitutions were located at antigenic sites A and B. The S245N and N329S substitutions in the NA gene affect the N-glycosylation. None of the mutations associated with resistance to NA inhibitors were observed. Mean evolutionary rates of the HA and NA genes were 3.47 × 10 -3 and 2.98 × 10-3 substitutions per site per year.

Conclusion

The influenza A(H3N2) virus is very genetically diverse and is always evolving to evade host defenses. The HA and NA gene features including the evolutionary rate of the influenza A(H3N2) viruses that were circulating in Thailand between 2015 and 2018 are described. This information is useful for monitoring the genetic characteristics and evolution in HA and NA genes of influenza A(H3N2) virus in Thailand which is crucial for predicting the influenza vaccine strains resulting in high vaccine effectiveness.

Natural variation in neuraminidase activity influences the evolutionary potential of the seasonal H1N1 lineage hemagglutinin

The antigenic evolution of the influenza A virus hemagglutinin (HA) gene poses a major challenge for the development of vaccines capable of eliciting long-term protection. Prior efforts to understand the mechanisms that govern viral antigenic evolution mainly focus on HA in isolation, ignoring the fact that HA must act in concert with the viral neuraminidase (NA) during replication and spread. Numerous studies have demonstrated that the degree to which the receptor binding avidity of HA and receptor cleaving activity of NA are balanced with each other influences overall viral fitness. We recently showed that changes in NA activity can significantly alter the mutational fitness landscape of HA in the context of a lab-adapted virus strain. Here, we test whether natural variation in relative NA activity can influence the evolutionary potential of HA in the context of the seasonal H1N1 lineage (pdmH1N1) that has circulated in humans since the 2009 pandemic. We observed substantial variation in the relative activities of NA proteins encoded by a panel of H1N1 vaccine strains isolated between 2009 and 2019. We comprehensively assessed the effect of NA background on the HA mutational fitness landscape in the circulating pdmH1N1 lineage using deep mutational scanning and observed pronounced epistasis between NA and residues in or near the receptor binding site of HA. To determine whether NA variation could influence the antigenic evolution of HA, we performed neutralizing antibody selection experiments using a panel of monoclonal antibodies targeting different HA epitopes. We found that the specific antibody escape profiles of HA were highly contingent upon NA background. Overall, our results indicate that natural variation in NA activity plays a significant role in governing the evolutionary potential of HA in the currently circulating pdmH1N1 lineage.

Analysis of 3.5 million SARS-CoV-2 sequences reveals unique mutational trends with consistent nucleotide and codon frequencies

BACKGROUND

Since the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, bioinformatic analyses have been performed to understand the nucleotide and synonymous codon usage features and mutational patterns of the virus. However, comparatively few have attempted to perform such analyses on a considerably large cohort of viral genomes while organizing the plethora of available sequence data for a month-by-month analysis to observe changes over time. Here, we aimed to perform sequence composition and mutation analysis of SARS-CoV-2, separating sequences by gene, clade, and timepoints, and contrast the mutational profile of SARS-CoV-2 to other comparable RNA viruses.

METHODS

Using a cleaned, filtered, and pre-aligned dataset of over 3.5 million sequences downloaded from the GISAID database, we computed nucleotide and codon usage statistics, including calculation of relative synonymous codon usage values. We then calculated codon adaptation index (CAI) changes and a nonsynonymous/synonymous mutation ratio (dN/dS) over time for our dataset. Finally, we compiled information on the types of mutations occurring for SARS-CoV-2 and other comparable RNA viruses, and generated heatmaps showing codon and nucleotide composition at high entropy positions along the Spike sequence.

RESULTS

We show that nucleotide and codon usage metrics remain relatively consistent over the 32-month span, though there are significant differences between clades within each gene at various timepoints. CAI and dN/dS values vary substantially between different timepoints and different genes, with Spike gene on average showing both the highest CAI and dN/dS values. Mutational analysis showed that SARS-CoV-2 Spike has a higher proportion of nonsynonymous mutations than analogous genes in other RNA viruses, with nonsynonymous mutations outnumbering synonymous ones by up to 20:1. However, at several specific positions, synonymous mutations were overwhelmingly predominant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our multifaceted analysis covering both the composition and mutation signature of SARS-CoV-2 gives valuable insight into the nucleotide frequency and codon usage heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 over time, and its unique mutational profile compared to other RNA viruses.

Mutation in Hemagglutinin Antigenic Sites in Influenza A pH1N1 Viruses from 2015-2019 in the United States Mountain West, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere

H1N1 influenza A virus is a respiratory pathogen that undergoes antigenic shift and antigenic drift to improve viral fitness. Tracking the evolutionary trends of H1N1 aids with the current detection and the future response to new viral strains as they emerge. Here, we characterize antigenic drift events observed in the hemagglutinin (HA) sequence of the pandemic H1N1 lineage from 2015-2019. We observed the substitutions S200P, K147N, and P154S, together with other mutations in structural, functional, and/or epitope regions in 2015-2019 HA protein sequences from the Mountain West region of the United States, the larger United States, Europe, and other Northern Hemisphere countries. We reconstructed multiple phylogenetic trees to track the relationships and spread of these mutations and tested for evidence of selection pressure on HA. We found that the prevalence of amino acid substitutions at positions 147, 154, 159, 200, and 233 significantly changed throughout the studied geographical regions between 2015 and 2019. We also found evidence of coevolution among a subset of these amino acid substitutions. The results from this study could be relevant for future epidemiological tracking and vaccine prediction efforts. Similar analyses in the future could identify additional sequence changes that could affect the pathogenicity and/or infectivity of this virus in its human host.

PABP1 Drives the Selective Translation of Influenza A Virus mRNA

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a human-infecting pathogen with a history of causing seasonal epidemics and on several occasions worldwide pandemics. Infection by IAV causes a dramatic decrease in host mRNA translation, whereas viral mRNAs are efficiently translated. The IAV mRNAs have a highly conserved 5'-untranslated region (5'UTR) that is rich in adenosine residues. We show that the human polyadenylate binding protein 1 (PABP1) binds to the 5'UTR of the viral mRNAs. The interaction of PABP1 with the viral 5'UTR makes the translation of viral mRNAs more resistant to canonical cap-dependent translation inhibition than model mRNAs. Additionally, PABP1 bound to the viral 5'UTR can recruit eIF4G in an eIF4E-independent manner. These results indicate that PABP1 bound to the viral 5'UTR may promote eIF4E-independent translation initiation.

Generation of Human Lung Organoid Cultures from Healthy and Tumor Tissue to Study Infectious Diseases

Three-dimensional (3D) human lung organoids reflect the native cell composition of the lung as well as its physiological properties. Human 3D lung organoids offer ideal conditions, such as timely availability in large quantities and high physiological relevance for reassessment and prediction of disease outbreaks of respiratory pathogens and pathogens that use the lung as a primary entry portal.

Inferring the distribution of fitness effects in patient-sampled and experimental virus populations: two case studies

We here propose an analysis pipeline for inferring the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) from either patient-sampled or experimentally-evolved viral populations, that explicitly accounts for non-Wright-Fisher and non-equilibrium population dynamics inherent to pathogens. We examine the performance of this approach via extensive power and performance analyses, and highlight two illustrative applications - one from an experimentally-passaged RNA virus, and the other from a clinically-sampled DNA virus. Finally, we discuss how such DFE inference may shed light on major research questions in virus evolution, ranging from a quantification of the population genetic processes governing genome size, to the role of Hill-Robertson interference in dictating adaptive outcomes, to the potential design of novel therapeutic approaches to eradicate within-patient viral populations via induced mutational meltdown.

The PB1 gene from H9N2 avian influenza virus showed high compatibility and increased mutation rate after reassorting with a human H1N1 influenza virus

BACKGROUND

Reassortment between human and avian influenza viruses (AIV) may result in novel viruses with new characteristics that may threaten human health when causing the next flu pandemic. A particular risk may be posed by avian influenza viruses of subtype H9N2 that are currently massively circulating in domestic poultry in Asia and have been shown to infect humans. In this study, we investigate the characteristics and compatibility of a human H1N1 virus with avian H9N2 derived genes.

METHODS

The polymerase activity of the viral ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complex as combinations of polymerase-related gene segments derived from different reassortment events was tested in luciferase reporter assays. Reassortant viruses were generated by reverse genetics. Gene segments of the human WSN-H1N1 virus (A/WSN/1933) were replaced by gene segments of the avian A2093-H9N2 virus (A/chicken/Jiangsu/A2093/2011), which were both the Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) gene segments in combination with one of the genes involved in the RNP complex (either PB2, PB1, PA or NP). The growth kinetics and virulence of reassortant viruses were tested on cell lines and mice. The reassortant viruses were then passaged for five generations in MDCK cells and mice lungs. The HA gene of progeny viruses from different passaging paths was analyzed using Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS).

RESULTS

We discovered that the avian PB1 gene of H9N2 increased the polymerase activity of the RNP complex in backbone of H1N1. Reassortant viruses were able to replicate in MDCK and DF1 cells and mice. Analysis of the NGS data showed a higher substitution rate for the PB1-reassortant virus. In particular, for the PB1-reassortant virus, increased virulence for mice was measured by increased body weight loss after infection in mice.

CONCLUSIONS

The higher polymerase activity and increased mutation frequency measured for the PB1-reassortant virus suggests that the avian PB1 gene of H9N2 may drive the evolution and adaptation of reassortant viruses to the human host. This study provides novel insights in the characteristics of viruses that may arise by reassortment of human and avian influenza viruses. Surveillance for infections with H9N2 viruses and the emergence of the reassortant viruses in humans is important for pandemic preparedness.

Intra- and inter-host evolution of H9N2 influenza A virus in Japanese quail

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are constantly evolving. Crucial steps in the infection cycle, such as sialic acid (SA) receptor binding on the host cell surface, can either promote or hamper the emergence of new variants. We previously assessed the relative fitness in Japanese quail of H9N2 variant viruses differing at a single amino acid position, residue 216 in the hemagglutinin (HA) viral surface protein. This site is known to modulate SA recognition. Our prior study generated a valuable set of longitudinal samples from quail transmission groups where the inoculum comprised different mixed populations of HA 216 variant viruses. Here, we leveraged these samples to examine the evolutionary dynamics of viral populations within and between inoculated and naïve contact quails. We found that positive selection dominated HA gene evolution, but fixation of the fittest variant depended on the competition mixture. Analysis of the whole genome revealed further evidence of positive selection acting both within and between hosts. Positive selection drove fixation of variants in non-HA segments within inoculated and contact quails. Importantly, transmission bottlenecks were modulated by the molecular signature at HA 216, revealing viral receptor usage as a determinant of transmitted diversity. Overall, we show that selection strongly shaped the evolutionary dynamics within and between quails. These findings support the notion that selective processes act effectively on IAV populations in poultry hosts, facilitating rapid viral evolution in this ecological niche.

Local spread of influenza A (H1N1) viruses without a mutation for the maximum duration of an epidemic season in Japan

Close observation of the local transmission of influenza A(H1N1) viruses enabled an estimate of the length of time the virus was transmitted without a mutation. Of 4,448 isolates from 11 consecutive years, 237 isolates could be categorized into 57 strain groups with identical hemagglutinin genes, which were monitored for the entire duration of an epidemic season. In addition, 35 isolates with identical sequences were identified at the study site and in other countries within 147 days. Consequently, it can be postulated that once an influenza virus enters a temperate region, the strain rarely mutates before the end of the season.

Deciphering transmission dynamics and spillover of avian influenza viruses from avian species to swine populations globally

Genome sequences of eleven avian influenza virus (AIV) subtypes have been reported in swine populations from seven countries until August 2020. To unravel the transmission dynamics and spillover events of AIVs from avian reservoirs to swine, full-length hemagglutinin (HA) sequences of AIV subtypes (n = 11) reported from various avian species and swine were retrieved from the ‘Influenza Research Database’. Phylogenetic analysis identified closely related avian and swine AIV sequences suggesting potential spillover events from multiple domestic and wild avian species, including chicken, duck, pigeon, goose, quail, and aquatic birds to swine. Furthermore, N-linked glycosylation analysis of these closely related AIV sequences supported the possibility of multiple spillover events of highly pathogenic H5N1 and low pathogenic H9N2 viruses from various avian species to swine. The principal coordinate analysis further validated these findings for H5N1 and H9N2 viruses; however, spillover events of the other nine AIV subtypes were limited. Interestingly, the presence of potential mammalian adaptation markers, particularly in some of the swine H5N1, H7N9, and H9N2 viruses, suggested that these viruses may have already adapted in swine. The occurrence and circulation of these AIVs in swine, especially the H5N1 and H9N2 viruses with numerous spillover events from the avian reservoirs to swine, pose a significant threat in terms of their reassortment with endemic swine viruses or circulating human influenza viruses within the swine which may facilitate the emergence of a novel influenza virus strain with pandemic potential.

Novel and emerging mutations of SARS-CoV-2: Biomedical implications

Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The SARS-CoV-2 virus strains has geographical diversity associated with diverse severity, mortality rate, and response to treatment that were characterized using phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Although, there is no explicit and integrative explanation for these variations, the genetic arrangement, and stability of SARS-CoV-2 are basic contributing factors to its virulence and pathogenesis. Hence, understanding these features can be used to predict the future transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection, drug development, and vaccine. In this review, we discuss the most recent findings on the mutations in the SARS-CoV-2, which provide valuable information on the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2, especially for DNA-based diagnosis, antivirals, and vaccine development for COVID-19.

Animal and human RNA viruses: genetic variability and ability to overcome vaccines

RNA viruses, in general, exhibit high mutation rates; this is mainly due to the low fidelity displayed by the RNA-dependent polymerases required for their replication that lack the proofreading machinery to correct misincorporated nucleotides and produce high mutation rates. This lack of replication fidelity, together with the fact that RNA viruses can undergo spontaneous mutations, results in genetic variants displaying different viral morphogenesis, as well as variation on their surface glycoproteins that affect viral antigenicity. This diverse viral population, routinely containing a variety of mutants, is known as a viral 'quasispecies'. The mutability of their virions allows for fast evolution of RNA viruses that develop antiviral resistance and overcome vaccines much more rapidly than DNA viruses. This also translates into the fact that pathogenic RNA viruses, that cause many diseases and deaths in humans, represent the major viral group involved in zoonotic disease transmission, and are responsible for worldwide pandemics.

Quantifying mechanistic traits of influenza viral dynamics using in vitro data

When analysing in vitro data, growth kinetics of influenza virus strains are often compared by computing their growth rates, which are sometimes used as proxies for fitness. However, analogous to mathematical models for epidemics, the growth rate can be defined as a function of mechanistic traits: the basic reproduction number (the average number of cells each infected cell infects) and the mean generation time (the average length of a replication cycle). Fitting a model to previously published and newly generated data from experiments in human lung cells, we compared estimates of growth rate, reproduction number and generation time for six influenza A strains. Of four strains in previously published data, A/Canada/RV733/2003 (seasonal H1N1) had the lowest basic reproduction number, followed by A/Mexico/INDRE4487/2009 (pandemic H1N1), then A/Indonesia/05/2005 (spill-over H5N1) and A/Anhui/1/2013 (spill-over H7N9). This ordering of strains was preserved for both generation time and growth rate, suggesting a positive biological correlation between these quantities which have not been previously observed. We further investigated these potential correlations using data from reassortant viruses with different internal proteins (from A/England/195/2009 (pandemic H1N1) and A/Turkey/05/2005 (H5N1)), and the same surface proteins (from A/Puerto Rico/8/34 (lab-adapted H1N1)). Similar correlations between traits were observed for these viruses, confirming our initial findings and suggesting that these patterns were related to the degree of human adaptation of internal genes. Also, the model predicted that strains with a smaller basic reproduction number, shorter generation time and slower growth rate underwent more replication cycles by the time of peak viral load, potentially accumulating mutations more quickly. These results illustrate the utility of mathematical models in inferring traits driving observed differences in in vitro growth of influenza strains.

Within-Host Viral Diversity: A Window into Viral Evolution

The evolutionary dynamics of a virus can differ within hosts and across populations. Studies of within-host evolution provide an important link between experimental studies of virus evolution and large-scale phylodynamic analyses. They can determine the extent to which global processes are recapitulated on local scales and how accurately experimental infections model natural ones. They may also inform epidemiologic models of disease spread and reveal how host-level dynamics contribute to a virus's evolution at a larger scale. Over the last decade, advances in viral sequencing have enabled detailed studies of viral genetic diversity within hosts. I review how within-host diversity is sampled, measured, and expressed, and how comparative studies of viral diversity can be leveraged to elucidate a virus's evolutionary dynamics. These concepts are illustrated with detailed reviews of recent research on the within-host evolution of influenza virus, dengue virus, and cytomegalovirus.

Substantial Antigenic Drift in the Hemagglutinin Protein of Swine Influenza A Viruses

The degree of antigenic drift in swine influenza A viruses (swIAV) has historically been regarded as minimal compared to that of human influenza A virus strains. However, as surveillance activities on swIAV have increased, more isolates have been characterized, revealing a high level of genetic and antigenic differences even within the same swIAV lineage. The objective of this study was to investigate the level of genetic drift in one enzootically infected swine herd over one year. Nasal swabs were collected monthly from sows (n = 4) and piglets (n = 40) in the farrowing unit, and from weaners (n = 20) in the nursery. Virus from 1-4 animals were sequenced per month. Analyses of the sequences revealed that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was the main target for genetic drift with a substitution rate of 7.6 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year and evidence of positive selection. The majority of the mutations occurred in the globular head of the HA protein and in antigenic sites. The phylogenetic tree of the HA sequences displayed a pectinate typology, where only a single lineage persists and forms the ancestor for subsequent lineages. This was most likely caused by repeated selection of a single immune-escape variant, which subsequently became the founder of the next wave of infections.

Better influenza vaccines: an industry perspective

Vaccination is the most effective measure at preventing influenza virus infections. However, current seasonal influenza vaccines are only protective against closely matched circulating strains. Even with extensive monitoring and annual reformulation our efforts remain one step behind the rapidly evolving virus, often resulting in mismatches and low vaccine effectiveness. Fortunately, many next-generation influenza vaccines are currently in development, utilizing an array of innovative techniques to shorten production time and increase the breadth of protection. This review summarizes the production methods of current vaccines, recent advances that have been made in influenza vaccine research, and highlights potential challenges that are yet to be overcome. Special emphasis is put on the potential role of glycoengineering in influenza vaccine development, and the advantages of removing the glycan shield on influenza surface antigens to increase vaccine immunogenicity. The potential for future development of these novel influenza vaccine candidates is discussed from an industry perspective.

Hijacking the Fusion Complex of Human Parainfluenza Virus as an Antiviral Strategy

Paramyxoviruses, including human parainfluenza virus type 3, are internalized into host cells by fusion between viral and target cell membranes. The receptor binding protein, hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN), upon binding to its cell receptor, triggers conformational changes in the fusion protein (F). This action of HN activates F to reach its fusion-competent state. Using small molecules that interact with HN, we can induce the premature activation of F and inactivate the virus. To obtain highly active pretriggering compounds, we carried out a virtual modeling screen for molecules that interact with a sialic acid binding site on HN that we propose to be the site involved in activating F. We use cryo-electron tomography of authentic intact viral particles for the first time to directly assess the mechanism of action of this treatment on the conformation of the viral F protein and present the first direct observation of the induced conformational rearrangement in the viral F protein.

The receptor binding protein of parainfluenza virus, hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN), is responsible for actively triggering the viral fusion protein (F) to undergo a conformational change leading to insertion into the target cell and fusion of the virus with the target cell membrane. For proper viral entry to occur, this process must occur when HN is engaged with host cell receptors at the cell surface. It is possible to interfere with this process through premature activation of the F protein, distant from the target cell receptor. Conformational changes in the F protein and adoption of the postfusion form of the protein prior to receptor engagement of HN at the host cell membrane inactivate the virus. We previously identified small molecules that interact with HN and induce it to activate F in an untimely fashion, validating a new antiviral strategy. To obtain highly active pretriggering candidate molecules we carried out a virtual modeling screen for molecules that interact with sialic acid binding site II on HN, which we propose to be the site responsible for activating F. To directly assess the mechanism of action of one such highly effective new premature activating compound, PAC-3066, we use cryo-electron tomography on authentic intact viral particles for the first time to examine the effects of PAC-3066 treatment on the conformation of the viral F protein. We present the first direct observation of the conformational rearrangement induced in the viral F protein.

Quantifying within-host diversity of H5N1 influenza viruses in humans and poultry in Cambodia

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) periodically cross species barriers and infect humans. The likelihood that an AIV will evolve mammalian transmissibility depends on acquiring and selecting mutations during spillover, but data from natural infection is limited. We analyze deep sequencing data from infected humans and domestic ducks in Cambodia to examine how H5N1 viruses evolve during spillover. Overall, viral populations in both species are predominated by low-frequency (<10%) variation shaped by purifying selection and genetic drift, and half of the variants detected within-host are never detected on the H5N1 virus phylogeny. However, we do detect a subset of mutations linked to human receptor binding and replication (PB2 E627K, HA A150V, and HA Q238L) that arose in multiple, independent humans. PB2 E627K and HA A150V were also enriched along phylogenetic branches leading to human infections, suggesting that they are likely human-adaptive. Our data show that H5N1 viruses generate putative human-adapting mutations during natural spillover infection, many of which are detected at >5% frequency within-host. However, short infection times, genetic drift, and purifying selection likely restrict their ability to evolve extensively during a single infection. Applying evolutionary methods to sequence data, we reveal a detailed view of H5N1 virus adaptive potential, and develop a foundation for studying host-adaptation in other zoonotic viruses.

H5N1 avian influenza viruses can cross species barriers and cause severe disease in humans. H5N1 viruses currently cannot replicate and transmit efficiently among humans, but animal infection studies and modeling experiments have suggested that human adaptation may require only a few mutations. However, data from natural spillover infection has been limited, posing a challenge for risk assessment. Here, we analyze a unique dataset of deep sequence data from H5N1 virus-infected humans and domestic ducks in Cambodia. We find that well-known markers of human receptor binding and replication arise in multiple, independent humans. We also find that 3 mutations detected within-host are enriched along phylogenetic branches leading to human infections, suggesting that they are likely human-adapting. However, we also show that within-host evolution in both humans and ducks are shaped heavily by purifying selection and genetic drift, and that a large fraction of within-host variation is never detected on the H5N1 phylogeny. Taken together, our data show that H5N1 viruses do generate human-adapting mutations during natural infection. However, short infection times, purifying selection, and genetic drift may severely limit how much H5N1 viruses can evolve during the course of a single infection.

Exploiting B Cell Receptor Analyses to Inform on HIV-1 Vaccination Strategies

The human antibody repertoire is generated by the recombination of different gene segments as well as by processes of somatic mutation. Together these mechanisms result in a tremendous diversity of antibodies that are able to combat various pathogens including viruses and bacteria, or malignant cells. In this review, we summarize the opportunities and challenges that are associated with the analyses of the B cell receptor repertoire and the antigen-specific B cell response. We will discuss how recent advances have increased our understanding of the antibody response and how repertoire analyses can be exploited to inform on vaccine strategies, particularly against HIV-1.

Analysis of group evolution prediction in complex networks

In the world, in which acceptance and the identification with social communities are highly desired, the ability to predict the evolution of groups over time appears to be a vital but very complex research problem. Therefore, we propose a new, adaptable, generic, and multistage method for Group Evolution Prediction (GEP) in complex networks, that facilitates reasoning about the future states of the recently discovered groups. The precise GEP modularity enabled us to carry out extensive and versatile empirical studies on many real-world complex / social networks to analyze the impact of numerous setups and parameters like time window type and size, group detection method, evolution chain length, prediction models, etc. Additionally, many new predictive features reflecting the group state at a given time have been identified and tested. Some other research problems like enriching learning evolution chains with external data have been analyzed as well.

Rapid evolution of Mexican H7N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in poultry

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H7N3 has been circulating in poultry in Mexico since 2012 and vaccination has been used to control the disease. In this study, eight Mexican H7N3 HPAI viruses from 2015–2017 were isolated and fully sequenced. No evidence of reassortment was detected with other avian influenza (AI) viruses, but phylogenetic analyses show divergence of all eight gene segments into three genetic clusters by 2015, with 94.94 to 98.78 percent nucleotide homology of the HA genes when compared to the index virus from 2012. The HA protein of viruses from each cluster showed a different number of basic amino acids (n = 5–7) in the cleavage site, and six different patterns at the predicted N-glycosylation sites. Comparison of the sequences of the Mexican lineage H7N3 HPAI viruses and American ancestral wild bird AI viruses to characterize the virus evolutionary dynamics showed that the nucleotide substitution rates in PB2, PB1, PA, HA, NP, and NS genes greatly increased once the virus was introduced into poultry. The global nonsynonymous and synonymous ratios imply strong purifying selection driving the evolution of the virus. Forty-nine positively selected sites out of 171 nonsynonymous mutations were identified in the Mexican H7N3 HPAI viruses, including 7 amino acid changes observed in higher proportion in North American poultry origin AI viruses isolates than in wild bird-origin viruses. Continuous monitoring and molecular characterization of the H7N3 HPAI virus is important for better understanding of the virus evolutionary dynamics and further improving control measures including vaccination.

Host susceptibility to severe influenza A virus infection

Most people exposed to a new flu virus do not notice any symptoms. A small minority develops critical illness. Some of this extremely broad variation in susceptibility is explained by the size of the initial inoculum or the influenza exposure history of the individual; some is explained by generic host factors, such as frailty, that decrease resilience following any systemic insult. Some demographic factors (pregnancy, obesity, and advanced age) appear to confer a more specific susceptibility to severe illness following infection with influenza viruses. As with other infectious diseases, a substantial component of susceptibility is determined by host genetics. Several genetic susceptibility variants have now been reported with varying levels of evidence. Susceptible hosts may have impaired intracellular controls of viral replication (e.g. IFITM3, TMPRS22 variants), defective interferon responses (e.g. GLDC, IRF7/9 variants), or defects in cell-mediated immunity with increased baseline levels of systemic inflammation (obesity, pregnancy, advanced age). These mechanisms may explain the prolonged viral replication reported in critically ill patients with influenza: patients with life-threatening disease are, by definition, abnormal hosts. Understanding these molecular mechanisms of susceptibility may in the future enable the design of host-directed therapies to promote resilience.

Influenza A Virus Subpopulations and Their Implication in Pathogenesis and Vaccine Development

The concept of influenza A virus (IAV) subpopulations emerged approximately 75 years ago, when Preben von Magnus described "incomplete" virus particles that interfere with the replication of infectious virus. It is now widely accepted that infectious particles constitute only a minor portion of biologically active IAV subpopulations. The IAV quasispecies is an extremely diverse swarm of biologically and genetically heterogeneous particle subpopulations that collectively influence the evolutionary fitness of the virus. This review summarizes the current knowledge of IAV subpopulations, focusing on their biologic and genomic diversity. It also discusses the potential roles IAV subpopulations play in virus pathogenesis and live attenuated influenza vaccine development.

Single-Cell Virus Sequencing of Influenza Infections That Trigger Innate Immunity

Influenza virus-infected cells vary widely in their expression of viral genes and only occasionally activate innate immunity. Here, we develop a new method to assess how the genetic variation in viral populations contributes to this heterogeneity. We do this by determining the transcriptome and full-length sequences of all viral genes in single cells infected with a nominally "pure" stock of influenza virus. Most cells are infected by virions with defects, some of which increase the frequency of innate-immune activation. These immunostimulatory defects are diverse and include mutations that perturb the function of the viral polymerase protein PB1, large internal deletions in viral genes, and failure to express the virus's interferon antagonist NS1. However, immune activation remains stochastic in cells infected by virions with these defects and occasionally is triggered even by virions that express unmutated copies of all genes. Our work shows that the diverse spectrum of defects in influenza virus populations contributes to-but does not completely explain-the heterogeneity in viral gene expression and immune activation in single infected cells.IMPORTANCE Because influenza virus has a high mutation rate, many cells are infected by mutated virions. But so far, it has been impossible to fully characterize the sequence of the virion infecting any given cell, since conventional techniques such as flow cytometry and single-cell transcriptome sequencing (scRNA-seq) only detect if a protein or transcript is present, not its sequence. Here we develop a new approach that uses long-read PacBio sequencing to determine the sequences of virions infecting single cells. We show that viral genetic variation explains some but not all of the cell-to-cell variability in viral gene expression and innate immune induction. Overall, our study provides the first complete picture of how viral mutations affect the course of infection in single cells.

Evolution of major histocompatibility complex gene copy number

MHC genes, which code for proteins responsible for presenting pathogen-derived antigens to the host immune system, show remarkable copy-number variation both between and within species. However, the evolutionary forces driving this variation are poorly understood. Here, we use computer simulations to investigate whether evolution of the number of MHC variants in the genome can be shaped by the number of pathogen species the host population encounters (pathogen richness). Our model assumed that while increasing a range of pathogens recognised, expressing additional MHC variants also incurs costs such as an increased risk of autoimmunity. We found that pathogen richness selected for high MHC copy number only when the costs were low. Furthermore, the shape of the association was modified by the rate of pathogen evolution, with faster pathogen mutation rates selecting for increased host MHC copy number, but only when pathogen richness was low to moderate. Thus, taking into account factors other than pathogen richness may help explain wide variation between vertebrate species in the number of MHC genes. Within population, variation in the number of unique MHC variants carried by individuals (INV) was observed under most parameter combinations, except at low pathogen richness. This variance gave rise to positive correlations between INV and host immunocompetence (proportion of pathogens recognised). However, within-population variation in host immunocompetence declined with pathogen richness. Thus, counterintuitively, pathogens can contribute more to genetic variance for host fitness in species exposed to fewer pathogen species, with consequences to predictions from “Hamilton-Zuk” theory of sexual selection.

Highly polymorphic genes of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) code for proteins responsible for presenting antigens to lymphocytes, thus initiating adaptive immune response. The polymorphism is driven by coevolution with parasites which are selected to evade recognition by MHC proteins. Expressing many MHC molecules could ensure that an individual could present antigens of most pathogen species encountered, but this comes at a cost, such as enhanced negative selection on lymphocytes leading to holes in T-cell receptor repertoire. Our simulations showed that evolution of the number of MHC genes in the genome is driven by a complex interaction between three factors we explored: pathogen richness, the intrinsic cost of expressing additional MHC variants, and pathogen mutation rate. In contrast to verbal arguments, our results indicate that pathogen richness does not always selects for MHC gene family expansion. Taking into account factors other than pathogen richness, in particular costs of expressing additional MHC variants which are still poorly understood, may help explain striking interspecific variation in the number of MHC genes. Counterintuitively, our results also demonstrated that opportunity for selection on immunocompetence should decrease with MHC gene family expansion.

Novel Role for miR-1290 in Host Species Specificity of Influenza A Virus

The role of microRNA (miRNA) in influenza A virus (IAV) host species specificity is not well understood as yet. Here, we show that a host miRNA, miR-1290, is induced through the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway upon IAV infection and is associated with increased viral titers in human cells and ferret animal models. miR-1290 was observed to target and reduce expression of the host vimentin gene. Vimentin binds with the PB2 subunit of influenza A virus ribonucleoprotein (vRNP), and knockdown of vimentin expression significantly increased vRNP nuclear retention and viral polymerase activity. Interestingly, miR-1290 was not detected in either chicken cells or mouse animal models, and the 3′ UTR of the chicken vimentin gene contains no binding site for miR-1290. These findings point to a host species-specific mechanism by which IAV upregulates miR-1290 to disrupt vimentin expression and retain vRNP in the nucleus, thereby enhancing viral polymerase activity and viral replication.

Inhibiting Human Parainfluenza Virus Infection by Preactivating the Cell Entry Mechanism

Paramyxoviruses, including human parainfluenza virus type 3, are internalized into host cells by fusion between viral and target cell membranes. The receptor binding protein, hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN), and the fusion protein (F) facilitate viral fusion and entry into cells through a process involving HN activation by receptor binding, which triggers conformational changes in F to activate it to reach its fusion-competent state. Interfering with this process through premature activation of the F protein may be an effective antiviral strategy in vitro. We identified and optimized small compounds that implement this antiviral strategy through an interaction with HN, causing HN to activate F in an untimely fashion. To address that mechanism, we produced novel anti-HPIV3 F conformation-specific antibodies that can be used to assess the functionality of compounds designed to induce F activation. Both the novel antiviral compounds that we present and these newly characterized postfusion antibodies are novel tools for the exploration and development of antiviral approaches.

Paramyxoviruses, specifically, the childhood pathogen human parainfluenza virus type 3, are internalized into host cells following fusion between the viral and target cell membranes. The receptor binding protein, hemagglutinin (HA)-neuraminidase (HN), and the fusion protein (F) facilitate viral fusion and entry into the cell through a coordinated process involving HN activation by receptor binding, which triggers conformational changes in the F protein to activate it to reach its fusion-competent state. Interfering with this process through premature activation of the F protein has been shown to be an effective antiviral strategy in vitro. Conformational changes in the F protein leading to adoption of the postfusion form of the protein—prior to receptor engagement of HN at the host cell membrane—render the virus noninfectious. We previously identified a small compound (CSC11) that implements this antiviral strategy through an interaction with HN, causing HN to activate F in an untimely process. To assess the functionality of such compounds, it is necessary to verify that the postfusion state of F has been achieved. As demonstrated by Melero and colleagues, soluble forms of the recombinant postfusion pneumovirus F proteins and of their six helix bundle (6HB) motifs can be used to generate postfusion-specific antibodies. We produced novel anti-HPIV3 F conformation-specific antibodies that can be used to assess the functionality of compounds designed to induce F activation. In this study, using systematic chemical modifications of CSC11, we synthesized a more potent derivative of this compound, CM9. Much like CSC11, CM9 causes premature triggering of the F protein through an interaction with HN prior to receptor engagement, thereby preventing fusion and subsequent infection. In addition to validating the potency of CM9 using plaque reduction, fusion inhibition, and binding avidity assays, we confirmed the transition to a postfusion conformation of F in the presence of CM9 using our novel anti-HPIV3 conformation-specific antibodies. We present both CM9 and these newly characterized postfusion antibodies as novel tools to explore and develop antiviral approaches. In turn, these advances in both our molecular toolset and our understanding of HN-F interaction will support development of more-effective antivirals. Combining the findings described here with our recently described physiologically relevant ex vivo system, we have the potential to inform the development of therapeutics to block viral infection.

Seasonal Genetic Drift of Human Influenza A Virus Quasispecies Revealed by Deep Sequencing

After a pandemic wave in 2009 following their introduction in the human population, the H1N1pdm09 viruses replaced the previously circulating, pre-pandemic H1N1 virus and, along with H3N2 viruses, are now responsible for the seasonal influenza type A epidemics. So far, the evolutionary potential of influenza viruses has been mainly documented by consensus sequencing data. However, like other RNA viruses, influenza A viruses exist as a population of diverse, albeit related, viruses, or quasispecies. Interest in this quasispecies nature has increased with the development of next generation sequencing (NGS) technologies that allow a more in-depth study of the genetic variability. NGS deep sequencing methodologies were applied to determine the whole genome genetic heterogeneity of the three categories of influenza A viruses that circulated in humans between 2007 and 2012 in France, directly from clinical respiratory specimens. Mutation frequencies and single nucleotide polymorphisms were used for comparisons to address the level of natural intrinsic heterogeneity of influenza A viruses. Clear differences in single nucleotide polymorphism profiles between seasons for a given subtype also revealed the constant genetic drift that human influenza A virus quasispecies undergo.

The parts are greater than the whole: the role of semi-infectious particles in influenza A virus biology

The influenza A virus (IAV) genome is incorporated into newly produced virions through a tightly orchestrated process that is one of the best studied examples of genome packaging by a segmented virus. Despite the remarkable selectivity and efficiency of this process, it is clear that the vast majority of IAV virions are unable to express the full set of essential viral gene products and are thus incapable of productive replication in the absence of complementation. Here, we attempt to reconcile the widespread production of these semi-infectious particles (SIPs) with the high efficiency and selectivity of IAV genome packaging. We also cover what is known and what remains unknown about the consequences of SIP production for the replication and evolution of viral populations.

Adaptive Mutations in Influenza A/California/07/2009 Enhance Polymerase Activity and Infectious Virion Production

Mice are not natural hosts for influenza A viruses (IAVs), but they are useful models for studying antiviral immune responses and pathogenesis. Serial passage of IAV in mice invariably causes the emergence of adaptive mutations and increased virulence. Here, we report the adaptation of IAV reference strain A/California/07/2009(H1N1) (also known as CA/07) in outbred Swiss Webster mice. Serial passage led to increased virulence and lung titers, and dissemination of the virus to brains. We adapted a deep-sequencing protocol to identify and enumerate adaptive mutations across all genome segments. Among mutations that emerged during mouse-adaptation, we focused on amino acid substitutions in polymerase subunits: polymerase basic-1 (PB1) T156A and F740L and polymerase acidic (PA) E349G. These mutations were evaluated singly and in combination in minigenome replicon assays, which revealed that PA E349G increased polymerase activity. By selectively engineering three PB1 and PA mutations into the parental CA/07 strain, we demonstrated that these mutations in polymerase subunits decreased the production of defective viral genome segments with internal deletions and dramatically increased the release of infectious virions from mouse cells. Together, these findings increase our understanding of the contribution of polymerase subunits to successful host adaptation.

Extreme heterogeneity of influenza virus infection in single cells

Viral infection can dramatically alter a cell's transcriptome. However, these changes have mostly been studied by bulk measurements on many cells. Here we use single-cell mRNA sequencing to examine the transcriptional consequences of influenza virus infection. We find extremely wide cell-to-cell variation in the productivity of viral transcription - viral transcripts comprise less than a percent of total mRNA in many infected cells, but a few cells derive over half their mRNA from virus. Some infected cells fail to express at least one viral gene, but this gene absence only partially explains variation in viral transcriptional load. Despite variation in viral load, the relative abundances of viral mRNAs are fairly consistent across infected cells. Activation of innate immune pathways is rare, but some cellular genes co-vary in abundance with the amount of viral mRNA. Overall, our results highlight the complexity of viral infection at the level of single cells.

Evolution of the Influenza A Virus: Some New Advances

Influenza is an RNA virus that causes mild to severe respiratory symptoms in humans and other hosts. Every year approximately half a million people around the world die from seasonal Influenza. But this number is substantially larger in the case of pandemics, with the most dramatic instance being the 1918 “Spanish flu” that killed more than 50 million people worldwide. In the last few years, thousands of Influenza genomic sequences have become publicly available, including the 1918 pandemic strain and many isolates from non-human hosts. Using these data and developing adequate bioinformatic and statistical tools, some of the major questions surrounding Influenza evolution are becoming tractable. Are the mutations and reassortments random? What are the patterns behind the virus's evolution? What are the necessary and sufficient conditions for a virus adapted to one host to infect a different host? Why is Influenza seasonal? In this review, we summarize some of the recent progress in understanding the evolution of the virus.

Population Diversity and Collective Interactions during Influenza Virus Infection

Influenza A virus (IAV) continues to pose an enormous and unpredictable global public health threat, largely due to the continual evolution of escape from preexisting immunity and the potential for zoonotic emergence. Understanding how the unique genetic makeup and structure of IAV populations influences their transmission and evolution is essential for developing more-effective vaccines, therapeutics, and surveillance capabilities. Owing to their mutation-prone replicase and unique genome organization, IAV populations exhibit enormous amounts of diversity both in terms of sequence and functional gene content. Here, I review what is currently known about the genetic and genomic diversity present within IAV populations and how this diversity may shape the replicative and evolutionary dynamics of these viruses.

Genome-wide analysis of influenza viral RNA and nucleoprotein association

Influenza A virus (IAV) genomes are composed of eight single-stranded RNA segments that are coated by viral nucleoprotein (NP) molecules. Classically, the interaction between NP and viral RNA (vRNA) is depicted as a uniform pattern of ‘beads on a string’. Using high-throughput sequencing of RNA isolated by crosslinking immunoprecipitation (HITS-CLIP), we identified the vRNA binding profiles of NP for two H1N1 IAV strains in virions. Contrary to the prevailing model for vRNA packaging, NP does not bind vRNA uniformly in the A/WSN/1933 and A/California/07/2009 strains, but instead each vRNA segment exhibits a unique binding profile, containing sites that are enriched or poor in NP association. Intriguingly, both H1N1 strains have similar yet distinct NP binding profiles despite extensive sequence conservation. Peaks identified by HITS-CLIP were verified as true NP binding sites based on insensitivity to DNA antisense oligonucleotide-mediated RNase H digestion. Moreover, nucleotide content analysis of NP peaks revealed that these sites are relatively G-rich and U-poor compared to the genome-wide nucleotide content, indicating an as-yet unidentified sequence bias for NP association in vivo. Taken together, our genome-wide study of NP–vRNA interaction has implications for the understanding of influenza vRNA architecture and genome packaging.

Influenza A Virus Nucleoprotein: A Highly Conserved Multi-Functional Viral Protein as a Hot Antiviral Drug Target

Prevention and treatment of influenza virus infection is an ongoing unmet medical need. Each year, thousands of deaths and millions of hospitalizations are attributed to influenza virus infection, which poses a tremendous health and economic burden to the society. Aside from the annual influenza season, influenza viruses also lead to occasional influenza pandemics as a result of emerging or re-emerging influenza strains. Influenza viruses are RNA viruses that exist in quasispecies, meaning that they have a very diverse genetic background. Such a feature creates a grand challenge in devising therapeutic intervention strategies to inhibit influenza virus replication, as a single agent might not be able to inhibit all influenza virus strains. Both classes of currently approved anti-influenza drugs have limitations: the M2 channel blockers amantadine and rimantadine are no longer recommended for use in the U.S. due to predominant drug resistance, and resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir is continuously on the rise. In pursuing the next generation of antiviral drugs with broad-spectrum activity and higher genetic barrier of drug resistance, the influenza virus nucleoprotein (NP) stands out as a high-profile drug target. This review summarizes recent developments in designing inhibitors targeting influenza NP and their mechanisms of action.

Epistatic Interactions within the Influenza A Virus Polymerase Complex Mediate Mutagen Resistance and Replication Fidelity

RNA viruses exist as genetically diverse populations. This standing genetic diversity gives them the potential to adapt rapidly, evolve resistance to antiviral therapeutics, and evade immune responses. Viral mutants with altered mutation rates or mutational tolerance have provided insights into how genetic diversity arises and how it affects the behavior of RNA viruses. To this end, we identified variants within the polymerase complex of influenza virus that are able tolerate drug-mediated increases in viral mutation rates. We find that drug resistance is highly dependent on interactions among mutations in the polymerase complex. In contrast to other viruses, influenza virus counters the effect of higher mutation rates primarily by maintaining high levels of genome replication. These findings suggest the importance of maintaining large population sizes for viruses with high mutation rates and show that multiple proteins can affect both mutation rate and genome synthesis.

Lethal mutagenesis is a broad-spectrum antiviral strategy that employs mutagenic nucleoside analogs to exploit the high mutation rate and low mutational tolerance of many RNA viruses. Studies of mutagen-resistant viruses have identified determinants of replicative fidelity and the importance of mutation rate to viral population dynamics. We have previously demonstrated the effective lethal mutagenesis of influenza A virus using three nucleoside analogs as well as the virus’s high genetic barrier to mutagen resistance. Here, we investigate the mutagen-resistant phenotypes of mutations that were enriched in drug-treated populations. We find that PB1 T123A has higher replicative fitness than the wild type, PR8, and maintains its level of genome production during 5-fluorouracil (2,4-dihydroxy-5-fluoropyrimidine) treatment. Surprisingly, this mutagen-resistant variant also has an increased baseline rate of C-to-U and G-to-A mutations. A second drug-selected mutation, PA T97I, interacts epistatically with PB1 T123A to mediate high-level mutagen resistance, predominantly by limiting the inhibitory effect of nucleosides on polymerase activity. Consistent with the importance of epistatic interactions in the influenza virus polymerase, our data suggest that nucleoside analog resistance and replication fidelity are strain dependent. Two previously identified ribavirin {1-[(2R,3R,4S,5R)-3,4-dihydroxy-5-(hydroxymethyl)oxolan-2-yl]-1H-1,2,4-triazole-3-carboxamide} resistance mutations, PB1 V43I and PB1 D27N, do not confer drug resistance in the PR8 background, and the PR8-PB1 V43I polymerase exhibits a normal baseline mutation rate. Our results highlight the genetic complexity of the influenza A virus polymerase and demonstrate that increased replicative capacity is a mechanism by which an RNA virus can counter the negative effects of elevated mutation rates.

IMPORTANCE RNA viruses exist as genetically diverse populations. This standing genetic diversity gives them the potential to adapt rapidly, evolve resistance to antiviral therapeutics, and evade immune responses. Viral mutants with altered mutation rates or mutational tolerance have provided insights into how genetic diversity arises and how it affects the behavior of RNA viruses. To this end, we identified variants within the polymerase complex of influenza virus that are able to tolerate drug-mediated increases in viral mutation rates. We find that drug resistance is highly dependent on interactions among mutations in the polymerase complex. In contrast to other viruses, influenza virus counters the effect of higher mutation rates primarily by maintaining high levels of genome replication. These findings suggest the importance of maintaining large population sizes for viruses with high mutation rates and show that multiple proteins can affect both mutation rate and genome synthesis.

Assessing the oseltamivir-induced resistance risk and implications for influenza infection control strategies

Background

Oseltamivir-resistant mutants with higher drug resistance rates and low trans-mission fitness costs have not accounted for influenza (sub)type viruses. Predicting the impacts of neuraminidase inhibitor therapy on infection rates and transmission of drug-resistant viral strains requires further investigation.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to assess the potential risk of oseltamivir-induced resistance for influenza A (H1N1) and A (H3N2) viruses.

Materials and methods

An immune-response-based virus dynamic model was used to best fit the oseltamivir-resistant A (H1N1) and A (H3N2) infection data. A probabilistic risk assessment model was developed by incorporating branching process-derived probability distribution of resistance to estimate oseltamivir-induced resistance risk.

Results

Mutation rate and sensitive strain number were key determinants in assessing resistance risk. By increasing immune response, antiviral efficacy, and fitness cost, the spread of resistant strains for A (H1N1) and A (H3N2) were greatly decreased. Probability of resistance depends most strongly on the sensitive strain number described by a Poisson model. Risk of oseltamivir-induced resistance increased with increasing the mutation rate for A (H1N1) only. The ≥50% of resistance risk induced by A (H1N1) and A (H3N2) sensitive infected cells were 0.4 (95% CI: 0.28–0.43) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.93–0.99) at a mutation rate of 10⁻⁶, respectively. Antiviral drugs must be administrated within 1–1.5 days for A (H1N1) and 2–2.5 days for A (H3N2) virus infections to limit viral production.

Conclusion

Probabilistic risk assessment of antiviral drug-induced resistance is crucial in the decision-making process for preventing influenza virus infections.

A new twist in measuring mutation rates

The influenza virus mutates faster than we previously thought.

A novel twelve class fluctuation test reveals higher than expected mutation rates for influenza A viruses

Influenza virus’ low replicative fidelity contributes to its capacity for rapid evolution. Clonal sequencing and fluctuation tests have suggested that the influenza virus mutation rate is 2.7 × 10^–6 - 3.0 × 10^–5 substitutions per nucleotide per strand copied (s/n/r). However, sequencing assays are biased toward mutations with minimal fitness impacts and fluctuation tests typically investigate only a subset of all possible single nucleotide mutations. We developed a fluctuation test based on reversion to fluorescence in a set of virally encoded mutant green fluorescent proteins, which allowed us to measure the rates of selectively neutral mutations representative of the twelve different mutation types. We measured an overall mutation rate of 1.8 × 10^–4 s/n/r for PR8 (H1N1) and 2.5 × 10^–4 s/n/r for Hong Kong 2014 (H3N2) and a transitional bias of 2.7–3.6. Our data suggest that each replicated genome will have an average of 2–3 mutations and highlight the importance of mutational load in influenza virus evolution.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.26437.001

Deriving effective vaccine allocation strategies for pandemic influenza: Comparison of an agent-based simulation and a compartmental model

Individuals are prioritized based on their risk profiles when allocating limited vaccine stocks during an influenza pandemic. Computationally expensive but realistic agent-based simulations and fast but stylized compartmental models are typically used to derive effective vaccine allocation strategies. A detailed comparison of these two approaches, however, is often omitted. We derive age-specific vaccine allocation strategies to mitigate a pandemic influenza outbreak in Seattle by applying derivative-free optimization to an agent-based simulation and also to a compartmental model. We compare the strategies derived by these two approaches under various infection aggressiveness and vaccine coverage scenarios. We observe that both approaches primarily vaccinate school children, however they may allocate the remaining vaccines in different ways. The vaccine allocation strategies derived by using the agent-based simulation are associated with up to 70% decrease in total cost and 34% reduction in the number of infections compared to the strategies derived by using the compartmental model. Nevertheless, the latter approach may still be competitive for very low and/or very high infection aggressiveness. Our results provide insights about potential differences between the vaccine allocation strategies derived by using agent-based simulations and those derived by using compartmental models.

Vaccination has minimal impact on the intrahost diversity of H3N2 influenza viruses

While influenza virus diversity and antigenic drift have been well characterized on a global scale, the factors that influence the virus’ rapid evolution within and between human hosts are less clear. Given the modest effectiveness of seasonal vaccination, vaccine-induced antibody responses could serve as a potent selective pressure for novel influenza variants at the individual or community level. We used next generation sequencing of patient-derived viruses from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of vaccine efficacy to characterize the diversity of influenza A virus and to define the impact of vaccine-induced immunity on within-host populations. Importantly, this study design allowed us to isolate the impact of vaccination while still studying natural infection. We used pre-season hemagglutination inhibition and neuraminidase inhibition titers to quantify vaccine-induced immunity directly and to assess its impact on intrahost populations. We identified 166 cases of H3N2 influenza over 3 seasons and 5119 person-years. We obtained whole genome sequence data for 119 samples and used a stringent and empirically validated analysis pipeline to identify intrahost single nucleotide variants at ≥1% frequency. Phylogenetic analysis of consensus hemagglutinin and neuraminidase sequences showed no stratification by pre-season HAI and NAI titer, respectively. In our study population, we found that the vast majority of intrahost single nucleotide variants were rare and that very few were found in more than one individual. Most samples had fewer than 15 single nucleotide variants across the entire genome, and the level of diversity did not significantly vary with day of sampling, vaccination status, or pre-season antibody titer. Contrary to what has been suggested in experimental systems, our data indicate that seasonal influenza vaccination has little impact on intrahost diversity in natural infection and that vaccine-induced immunity may be only a minor contributor to antigenic drift at local scales.

Influenza is a significant global health problem. Vaccination is the best way to prevent influenza virus infection, and seasonal influenza vaccines are considered for reformulation each year in order to keep up with the virus’ evolution. Despite these efforts, vaccine recipients often develop an immune response that does not protect from infection. Given the current recommendation that all people over 6 months of age get vaccinated, it is important to understand how vaccination itself may impact viral evolution during natural human infection. We studied how vaccination may alter viral evolution within individuals, as each person harbors many highly-related influenza variants that differ in their ability to escape the immune response. We compared groups of people in a vaccine trial to determine the impact that vaccination has on viral diversity and variant selection within individuals. We did not detect significant differences in the number of variants detected or in the prevalence of mutations that could impact antibody binding based on vaccination group or antibody response. Our work suggests that vaccination is not a major factor in driving the emergence of new influenza strains at the level of the individual host.

Mechanisms of viral mutation

The remarkable capacity of some viruses to adapt to new hosts and environments is highly dependent on their ability to generate de novo diversity in a short period of time. Rates of spontaneous mutation vary amply among viruses. RNA viruses mutate faster than DNA viruses, single-stranded viruses mutate faster than double-strand virus, and genome size appears to correlate negatively with mutation rate. Viral mutation rates are modulated at different levels, including polymerase fidelity, sequence context, template secondary structure, cellular microenvironment, replication mechanisms, proofreading, and access to post-replicative repair. Additionally, massive numbers of mutations can be introduced by some virus-encoded diversity-generating elements, as well as by host-encoded cytidine/adenine deaminases. Our current knowledge of viral mutation rates indicates that viral genetic diversity is determined by multiple virus- and host-dependent processes, and that viral mutation rates can evolve in response to specific selective pressures.

Selective Bottlenecks Shape Evolutionary Pathways Taken during Mammalian Adaptation of a 1918-like Avian Influenza Virus

Avian influenza virus reassortants resembling the 1918 human pandemic virus can become transmissible among mammals by acquiring mutations in hemagglutinin (HA) and polymerase. Using the ferret model, we trace the evolutionary pathway by which an avian-like virus evolves the capacity for mammalian replication and airborne transmission. During initial infection, within-host HA diversity increased drastically. Then, airborne transmission fixed two polymerase mutations that do not confer a detectable replication advantage. In later transmissions, selection fixed advantageous HA1 variants. Transmission initially involved a "loose" bottleneck, which became strongly selective after additional HA mutations emerged. The stringency and evolutionary forces governing between-host bottlenecks may therefore change throughout host adaptation. Mutations occurred in multiple combinations in transmitted viruses, suggesting that mammalian transmissibility can evolve through multiple genetic pathways despite phenotypic constraints. Our data provide a glimpse into avian influenza virus adaptation in mammals, with broad implications for surveillance on potentially zoonotic viruses.

A broadly neutralizing anti-influenza antibody reveals ongoing capacity of haemagglutinin-specific memory B cells to evolve

Understanding the natural evolution and structural changes involved in broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) development holds great promise for improving the design of prophylactic influenza vaccines. Here we report an haemagglutinin (HA) stem-directed bnAb, 3I14, isolated from human memory B cells, that utilizes a heavy chain encoded by the IGHV3-30 germline gene. MAb 3I14 binds and neutralizes groups 1 and 2 influenza A viruses and protects mice from lethal challenge. Analysis of VH and VL germline back-mutants reveals binding to H3 and H1 but not H5, which supports the critical role of somatic hypermutation in broadening the bnAb response. Moreover, a single VLD94N mutation improves the affinity of 3I14 to H5 by nearly 10-fold. These data provide evidence that memory B cell evolution can expand the HA subtype specificity. Our results further suggest that establishing an optimized memory B cell pool should be an aim of ‘universal' influenza vaccine strategies.

A major goal of vaccine design is to protect against a broad range of pathogen strains. Here the authors isolate a new broadly neutralizing antibody against influenza haemagglutinin from human memory B cells, and identify mutations that increase and broaden the neutralization towards H5 HA subtype.

The Mutational Robustness of Influenza A Virus

A virus’ mutational robustness is described in terms of the strength and distribution of the mutational fitness effects, or MFE. The distribution of MFE is central to many questions in evolutionary theory and is a key parameter in models of molecular evolution. Here we define the mutational fitness effects in influenza A virus by generating 128 viruses, each with a single nucleotide mutation. In contrast to mutational scanning approaches, this strategy allowed us to unambiguously assign fitness values to individual mutations. The presence of each desired mutation and the absence of additional mutations were verified by next generation sequencing of each stock. A mutation was considered lethal only after we failed to rescue virus in three independent transfections. We measured the fitness of each viable mutant relative to the wild type by quantitative RT-PCR following direct competition on A549 cells. We found that 31.6% of the mutations in the genome-wide dataset were lethal and that the lethal fraction did not differ appreciably between the HA- and NA-encoding segments and the rest of the genome. Of the viable mutants, the fitness mean and standard deviation were 0.80 and 0.22 in the genome-wide dataset and best modeled as a beta distribution. The fitness impact of mutation was marginally lower in the segments coding for HA and NA (0.88 ± 0.16) than in the other 6 segments (0.78 ± 0.24), and their respective beta distributions had slightly different shape parameters. The results for influenza A virus are remarkably similar to our own analysis of CirSeq-derived fitness values from poliovirus and previously published data from other small, single stranded DNA and RNA viruses. These data suggest that genome size, and not nucleic acid type or mode of replication, is the main determinant of viral mutational fitness effects.

Like other RNA viruses, influenza virus has a very high mutation rate. While high mutation rates may increase the rate at which influenza virus will adapt to a new host, acquire a new route of transmission, or escape from host immune surveillance, data from model systems suggest that most new viral mutations are either lethal or highly detrimental. Mutational robustness refers to the ability of a virus to tolerate, or buffer, these mutations. The mutational robustness of a virus will determine which mutations are maintained in a population and may have a greater impact on viral evolution than mutation rate. We defined the mutational robustness of influenza A virus by measuring the fitness of a large number of viruses, each with a single point mutation. We found that the overall robustness of influenza was similar to that of poliovirus and other viruses of similar size. Interestingly, mutations appeared to be more easily accommodated in hemagglutinin and neuraminidase than elsewhere in the genome. This work will inform models of influenza evolution at the global and molecular scale.