Category of exposure to HIV and age in the progression to AIDS: longitudinal study of 1199 people with known dates of seroconversion. HIV Italian Seroconversion Study Group

HIV/AIDS in Japan: Route and Age of Infection that Shaped the Epidemics in 1987-2016

In Japan, HIV infection is classified as "HIV" or "AIDS" depending upon whether the infection was detected before or after the development of AIDS. In male homosexuals, in the plot of the number of "AIDS" notified annually versus the that of "HIV" notified annually, the plot fell on a straight line with a slope close to 1. When the number of "HIV" no longer increased, that of "AIDS" also stopped increasing. The number of "HIV" notified in one region or age group was correlated with that of other regions or age groups, respectively. However, no such correlation was observed among male heterosexuals. "HIV" was detected more frequently among male homosexuals and females than among male heterosexuals. The rate of "AIDS" detection increased with age in all infection categories. Our analysis, supported by findings of other studies, suggested that the higher rate of "HIV" detection among male homosexuals and females was attributed to the increased risk of receptive sexual intercourse, while the higher rate of "AIDS" detection among the elderly people was attributed to immunological senescence.

Prediction of extended high viremia among newly HIV-1-infected persons in sub-Saharan Africa

Objective

Prompt identification of newly HIV-infected persons, particularly those who are most at risk of extended high viremia (EHV), allows important clinical and transmission prevention benefits. We sought to determine whether EHV could be predicted during early HIV infection (EHI) from clinical, demographic, and laboratory indicators in a large HIV-1 incidence study in Africa.

Design

Adults acquiring HIV-1 infection were enrolled in an EHI study assessing acute retroviral syndrome (ARS) symptoms and viral dynamics.

Methods

Estimated date of infection (EDI) was based on a positive plasma viral load or p24 antigen test prior to seroconversion, or the mid-point between negative and positive serological tests. EHV was defined as mean untreated viral load ≥5 log₁₀ copies/ml 130–330 days post-EDI. We used logistic regression to develop risk score algorithms for predicting EHV based on sex, age, number of ARS symptoms, and CD4 and viral load at diagnosis.

Results

Models based on the full set of five predictors had excellent performance both in the full population (c-statistic = 0.80) and when confined to persons with each of three HIV-1 subtypes (c-statistic = 0.80–0.83 within subtypes A, C, and D). Reduced models containing only 2–4 predictors performed similarly. In a risk score algorithm based on the final full-population model, predictor scores were one for male sex and enrollment CD4<350 cells/mm³, and two for having enrollment viral load >4.9 log₁₀ copies/ml. With a risk score cut-point of two, this algorithm was 85% sensitive (95% CI: 76%-91%) and 61% specific (55%-68%) in predicting EHV.

Conclusions

Simple risk score algorithms can reliably identify persons with EHI in sub-Saharan Africa who are likely to sustain high viral loads if treatment is delayed. These algorithms may be useful for prioritizing intensified efforts around care linkage and retention, treatment initiation, adherence support, and partner services to optimize clinical and prevention outcomes.

Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data (1997-2013) and mortality data from the South African vital registration system (1997-2014), using a Bayesian approach. In the 1985-2014 period, 2.70 million adult HIV-related deaths occurred in South Africa. Adult HIV deaths peaked at 231,000 per annum in 2006 and declined to 95,000 in 2014, a reduction of 74.7% (95% CI: 73.3%-76.1%) compared to the scenario without ART. However, HIV mortality in 2014 was estimated to be 69% (95% CI: 46%-97%) higher in 2014 (161,000) if the model was calibrated only to HIV prevalence data. In the 2000-2014 period, the South African ART programme is estimated to have reduced the cumulative number of HIV deaths in adults by 1.72 million (95% CI: 1.58 million-1.84 million) and to have saved 6.15 million life years in adults (95% CI: 5.52 million-6.69 million). This compares with a potential saving of 8.80 million (95% CI: 7.90 million-9.59 million) life years that might have been achieved if South Africa had moved swiftly to implement WHO guidelines (2004-2013) and had achieved high levels of ART uptake in HIV-diagnosed individuals from 2004 onwards. The model is limited by its reliance on all-cause mortality data, given the lack of reliable cause-of-death reporting, and also does not allow for changes over time in tuberculosis control programmes and ART effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

ART has had a dramatic impact on adult mortality in South Africa, but delays in the rollout of ART, especially in the early stages of the ART programme, have contributed to substantial loss of life. This is the first study to our knowledge to calibrate a model of ART impact to population-level recorded death data in Africa; models that are not calibrated to population-level death data may overestimate HIV-related mortality.

The Survival Experience of Older and Younger Adults with AIDS

Older people with HIV infection die faster than younger counterparts, but it is notknown whether age-associated survival is changing over time. The authors used theCenters for Disease Control data set of adult cases of AIDS reported from January 1,1981, to December 31, 1994, to study age-associated differences in survival by yearof diagnosis. A total of 433,354 adults with AIDS were reported during this interval.Of these, 10.3% were younger than age 50. In 1983-1984, median survival for olderand younger people was 153 versus 274 days, respectively. By 1991-1992, mediansurvival had improved for both groups-396 and 731 days, respectively. However,the relative and absolute gap in survival grew. While a substantially larger proportionof older adults died within 90 days of diagnosis, the overall trend of an increasingage-associated gap in survival remained when these were excluded from the analysis.Older and younger people with AIDS have achieved prolonged survival, but theage-associated gap in survival has grown.

Predictors of HIV-Infection in Older Adults

This article is a retrospective case-control study of patients from a Veteran’s Affairs Medical Center and an urban public hospital. Patients (53) older than 55 at the time of their HIV diagnosis were age- and gender-matched to 106 HIV-negative controls. Potential predictors of HIV-infection were abstracted from the medical records. HIV-positive patients were more likely to have a history of sexually transmitted diseases, have Hepatitis B+, and have significant differences in their mean globulin, serum sodium, albumin, and hemoglobin levels. The mean albumin to globulin ratio was also statistically, significantly different between the HIV-positive patients and the controls. These data suggest that for patients older than 55, certain medical history parameters may be useful in predicting risk of being HIV-positive. An albumin to globulin ratio < 1.0, especially when combined with a history of alcohol abuse or prior sexually transmitted disease, should prompt all physicians to screen their older patients for HIV.

Evaluation of Possible Effects of Continued Drug Use on HIV Progression among Women

Data from a prospective, multi-centred study of HIV infection in women (HIV Epidemiology Research Study [HERS)) was analysed to investigate the effect of continued injection drug use behaviours on progression to AIDS. All women enrolled in the HERS had at enrolment and at six-month intervals, a face-to-face interview which included specific injection drug use, a physical exam, and specimen collection that included T-cell subset analysis and HIV plasma RNA detection. Six hundred and thirty-nine HIV-infected women contributed 3021 person years of observation during 7.25 years of follow-up, and 299 of these women progressed to AIDS (46.8%). In multivariable analysis, there was no significantly increased risk of progression to AIDS for women reporting pre-baseline injection drug use [hazard ratio (HR)=1.07 (0.78, 1.47)] or reported injection drug use during follow-up [HR=0.89 (0.66, 1.21)] compared with never injecting. In a separate multivariable-model, comparing women who reported no injection in past six months to active injection drug users, the frequency of injection during the previous six months measured by daily injection [HR=0.97 (0.61, 1.55)] or less than daily injection [HR=O.84 (0.54, 1.33)] was not associated with progression to AIDS. Being in drug treatment was independently associated with a slower progression to AIDS [HR=0.41 (0.28,0.59)]. Neither injection drug use, nor frequency of injection drug use was associated with progression to AIDS among HIV infected women. Initiation of antiretroviral therapy among drug users should be based on readiness for treatment rather than concern about faster progression.

Identifying factors associated with changes in CD4(+) count in HIV-infected adults in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

More than doubling the national mean, Saskatchewan has the highest incidence of HIV in Canada. The progression of HIV is characterized by the decline in CD4⁺ T cells over time and can lead to immunological AIDS. Clinicians in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, have observed a more rapid progression to AIDS in the recent years. The goal of this retrospective longitudinal cohort study was to investigate the rate of CD4⁺ cell depletion, as well as to determine the effects of multiple clinical and social factors that may contribute to an accelerated progression of HIV to AIDS in this population.

OBJECTIVE:

To assess the impact of clinical and social factors unique to HIV-infected adults in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, regarding the rate of CD4⁺ count change, and to identify factors associated with a risk of CD4⁺ count decline.

METHODS:

A retrospective longitudinal cohort study from medical chart reviews at two clinics was conducted in Saskatoon. Univariate and multivariate linear mixed effects models were used to assess the impact of selected factors on CD4⁺ count change.

RESULTS:

Four hundred eleven HIV-infected patients were identified from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2011. Two hundred eighteen (53%) were male, mean (± SD) age was 35.6 ±10.1 years, 257 (70.8%) were First Nations or Métis, 312 (80.2%) were hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfected and 300 (73.3%) had a history of injection drug use (IDU). In univariate models, age, ethnicity, HCV, IDU, antiretroviral therapy and social assistance were significant. Using ethnicity, HCV and IDU, three multivariate models (models 1, 2, 3) were built due to high correlation. First Nations or Métis ethnicity, HCV coinfection and a history of IDU were associated with significantly lower CD4⁺ counts in multivariate models. Older age and social assistance were associated with significantly lower CD4⁺ counts in models 1 and 3. Age was marginally significant in model 2 (P=0.055). Not prescribed antiretroviral therapy was associated with a significantly negative CD4⁺ count slope in all multivariate models.

CONCLUSION:

The unique epidemiology of this HIV-infected population may be contributing to CD4⁺ count change. Increased attention and resources focused on this high-risk population are needed to prevent disease progression and to improve overall health and quality of life.

Predictors of virologic response in persons who start antiretroviral therapy during recent HIV infection

OBJECTIVE

Despite evidence supporting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in recent HIV infection, little is known about factors that are associated with successful ART. We assessed demographic, virologic, and immunologic parameters to identify predictors of virologic response.

DESIGN

A 24-week observational study of ART on persons enrolled within 6 months of their estimated date of infection (EDI) evaluated baseline demographics and the collection of blood and gut specimens.

METHODS

Flow cytometry analyses of blood and gut lymphocytes allowed characterization of CD4 and CD8 T cells at study entry and end. Additional assessments included soluble CD14 (sCD14), lipopolysaccharide, CD4 T-cell counts, and HIV RNA levels.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine participants initiated ART, and 17 achieved undetectable HIV RNA by study end. A longer time from EDI to ART, older age, higher sCD14, lower proportions of central memory CD4 T cells, and higher proportions of activated CD8 T cells were associated with detectable viremia. Multivariable logistic regression found only older age and elevated sCD14 were independently associated with persistent viremia. Additionally, we observed that ART in recent infection did not result in discernible recovery of CD4 T cells in the gut.

CONCLUSION

In persons who started ART within 3-33 weeks from EDI, age and microbial translocation were associated with detectable HIV RNA. As observed in other cohorts, ART in recent infection did not improve proportions of total CD4 T cells in gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT). This lends support to further evaluate the use of more potent ART or regimens that protect the GALT in recent HIV infection.

Cancer, immunodeficiency and antiretroviral treatment: results from the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD)

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the study was to conduct a within-cohort assessment of risk factors for incident AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs) and non-ADCs (NADCs) within the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD).

METHODS

A total of 2181 AHOD registrants were linked to the National AIDS Registry/National HIV Database (NAR/NHD) and the Australian Cancer Registry to identify those with a notified cancer diagnosis. Included in the current analyses were cancers diagnosed after HIV infection. Risk factors for cancers were also assessed using logistic regression methods.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty-nine cancer cases were diagnosed after HIV infection among 129 patients. More than half the diagnoses (n = 68; 60%) were ADCs, of which 69% were Kaposi's sarcoma and 31% non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Among the NADCs, the most common cancers were melanoma (n = 10), lung cancer (n = 6), Hodgkin's lymphoma (n = 5) and anal cancer (n = 5). Over a total of 21021 person-years (PY) of follow-up since HIV diagnosis, the overall crude cancer incidence rate for any cancer was 5.09/1000 PY. The overall rate of cancers decreased from 15.9/1000 PY [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.25-25.40/1000 PY] for CD4 counts < 100 cells/μL to 2.4/1000 PY (95% CI 1.62-3.39/1000 PY) for CD4 counts > 350 cells/μL. Lower CD4 cell count and prior AIDS diagnoses were significant predictors for both ADCs and NADCs.

CONCLUSIONS

ADCs remain the predominant cancers in this population, although NADC rates have increased in the more recent time period. Immune deficiency is a risk factor for both ADCs and NADCs.

Lung Disease in Older Patients with HIV

Successful treatment of HIV with combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has resulted in an aging HIV-infected population. As HIV-infected patients are living longer, noninfectious pulmonary diseases are becoming increasingly prevalent with a proportional decline in the incidence of opportunistic infections (OIs). Pulmonary OIs such as Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) and tuberculosis are still responsible for a significant proportion of pulmonary diseases in HIV-infected patients. However, bacterial pneumonia (BP) and noninfectious pulmonary diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and interstitial lung disease (ILD) account for a growing number of pulmonary diseases in aging HIV-infected patients. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the spectrum and management of pulmonary diseases in aging HIV-infected patients, although limited data exists to guide management of many noninfectious pulmonary diseases in HIV-infected patients. In the absence of such data, treatment of lung diseases in HIV-infected patients should generally follow guidelines for management established in HIV-uninfected patients.

Late presentation of HIV infection among adults in New Zealand: 2005-2010

BACKGROUND

Early diagnosis of HIV infection is important for the individual and for disease control. A consensus was recently reached among European countries on definitions of timing of presentation for care: 'Late presentation' refers to entering care with a CD4 count <350 cells/μL or an AIDS-defining event, regardless of the CD4 count. Presentation with 'advanced HIV disease' is a subset having a CD4 count <200 cells/μL and also includes all who have an AIDS-defining event regardless of CD4 count. This study examines timing of presentation in New Zealand from 2005 to 2010.

METHODS

Since 2005, information on the initial CD4 cell count has been requested on all people newly diagnosed with HIV infection through antibody testing in New Zealand. Excluded in this analysis were those previously diagnosed overseas or for an immigration medical.

RESULTS

A CD4 cell count was provided for 606 (80.3%) of the 755 newly diagnosed adults. Overall, 50.0% were 'late presenters' and 32.0% had 'advanced HIV disease'. Compared with men who have sex with men (MSM), people heterosexually infected were more likely to present late. 'Late presentation' and presentation with 'advanced HIV disease' were significantly more common among older MSM. Māori and Pacific MSM were more likely to present with 'advanced HIV disease'. Compared with European MSM, the age-adjusted relative risks for Māori and Pacific MSM were 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-3.2] and 2.5 (95% CI 1.2-5.0), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The high proportion of people presenting late reflects inadequate levels of HIV testing. The lower proportion of late presentations among MSM compared with those heterosexually infected may be explained by a higher proportion of recent locally acquired infections together with different testing patterns.

Effect of changing antiretroviral treatment eligibility criteria on patient load in Kampala, Uganda

In many resource-poor countries, CD4 count thresholds of eligibility for antiretroviral treatment (ART) were initially low (<200 cells/mm(3)) but are now being increased to improve patient survival and to reduce HIV transmission. There are few quantitative data on the effect of such increases on the demand for ART. The objective of this study was to measure HIV prevalence and the proportion of HIV-positives eligible for antiretroviral therapy at different CD4 cut-off levels among users of public health care services in Kampala, Uganda. We recruited 1200 adults from three primary care clinics in Kampala, including equal numbers of family planning (FP) clients, pregnant women, adult patients with any complaint, and persons seeking HIV counseling and testing. All participants were screened for HIV and those positive had a CD4 count done. HIV prevalence in all patients was 16.9% (203/1200). ART eligibility based on CD4 counts significantly increased from 36% at a 200 cells/mm(3) cut-off to 44% at 250 cells and to 57% at 350 cells cut-off (p for χ(2) trend<0.001). We concluded that changing cut-off levels to higher CD4 counts will significantly increase patient load in Kampala's primary care clinics, but a phased implementation should minimize negative effects on quality of care.

Non-injection drug use and HIV disease progression in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy

Little is known about the effects of non-injection drug use (NIDU) on HIV antiretroviral treatment outcomes. We conducted a systematic literature search and identified nine publications from prospective cohort studies investigating the relationship between NIDU and clinical HIV disease progression. Hazard ratios from studies estimating the effect of drug use on time to AIDS-related mortality ranged from 0.89 to 3.61, and only two of these were statistically significant. Hazard ratios from studies assessing time to an AIDS-defining event ranged from 1.19 to 2.51, with 8 of the 14 estimates falling between 1.55 and 1.65 regardless of drug use definition and measurement of use or frequency. It is suggested that NIDU may have a moderate effect of increasing the risk of progression to AIDS, but its impact on AIDS-related mortality is uncertain. NIDU may affect HIV antiretroviral treatment outcomes primarily through interaction with antiretroviral therapy and, to a lesser extent, through immune modulation and deterioration of general health. The limitations about published studies are discussed, and future perspectives on research on this topic are provided.

Increases in HIV diagnoses at the U.S.-Mexico border, 2003-2006

The population at the U.S.-Mexico border has experienced growth, more than double the U.S. national average. Movements of populations in this region have contributed to increased incidence of certain infectious diseases. We used information on persons diagnosed with HIV during 2003 to 2006 and aged 13 years or older (n = 4,279) reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for 45 U.S. border counties. We estimated the annual percent change and rates with Poisson regression. Overall, 47% of persons diagnosed with HIV in the border region were Hispanic; 39% nonHispanic white; and 10% nonHispanic black. During 2003 to 2006, HIV diagnoses increased 7.8% per year. Increases were observed among males, particularly among men who have sex with men. Among females, HIV diagnoses remained stable but decreased among females in nonborder regions. The number of HIV diagnoses at the border has increased. To decrease incidence of HIV disease it is necessary to develop prevention and education programs specific to this region.

Association of Y chromosome haplogroup I with HIV progression, and HAART outcome

The host genetic basis of differential outcomes in HIV infection, progression, viral load set point and highly active retroviral therapy (HAART) responses was examined for the common Y haplogroups in European Americans and African Americans. Accelerated progression to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and related death in European Americans among Y chromosome haplogroup I (Y-I) subjects was discovered. Additionally, Y-I haplogroup subjects on HAART took a longer time to HIV-1 viral suppression and were more likely to fail HAART. Both the accelerated progression and longer time to viral suppression results observed in haplogroup Y-I were significant after false-discovery-rate corrections. A higher frequency of AIDS-defining illnesses was also observed in haplogroup Y-I. These effects were independent of the previously identified autosomal AIDS restriction genes. When the Y-I haplogroup subjects were further subdivided into six I subhaplogroups, no one subhaplogroup accounted for the effects on HIV progression, viral load or HAART response. Adjustment of the analyses for population stratification found significant and concordant haplogroup Y-I results. The Y chromosome haplogroup analyses of HIV infection and progression in African Americans were not significant. Our results suggest that one or more loci on the Y chromosome found on haplogroup Y-I have an effect on AIDS progression and treatment responses in European Americans.

The study to understand the natural history of HIV and AIDS in the era of effective therapy (SUN Study)

Treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection with highly active combination antiretroviral therapy has increased survival and shifted the spectrum of HIV-associated morbidity and mortality from opportunistic infections toward a variety of other medical conditions. The prospective cohort Study to Understand the Natural History of HIV and AIDS in the Era of Effective Therapy (SUN Study) monitors the clinical course of HIV-infected individuals treated with combination antiretroviral therapy in 4 US cities. Every 6 months, clinical assessments, medical record abstraction, audio computer-assisted self-interview, and neurocognitive measurements are completed and blood and urine specimens are banked centrally. At enrollment and periodically thereafter, additional techniques such as anal cytology, dual energy x-ray absorptiometry, carotid ultrasonography, echocardiography, and abdominal and cardiac computed tomography are performed. From March 2004 through June 2006, 700 participants were enrolled; median age was 41 years, 76% were men, 58% were non-Hispanic white, 62% were men who have sex with men, 78% were taking combination antiretroviral therapy (of whom 86% had an HIV viral load of <400 copies/mL), and median CD4+ T-lymphocyte count was 459 cells/mm(3) (interquartile range: 324-660). The SUN Study provides a wealth of data that will inform and improve the clinical management of HIV-infected individuals in the modern era.

Aging and infectious diseases: workshop on HIV infection and aging: what is known and future research directions

Highly active antiretroviral treatment has resulted in dramatically increased life expectancy among patients with HIV infection who are now aging while receiving treatment and are at risk of developing chronic diseases associated with advanced age. Similarities between aging and the courses of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome suggest that HIV infection compresses the aging process, perhaps accelerating comorbidities and frailty. In a workshop organized by the Association of Specialty Professors, the Infectious Diseases Society of America, the HIV Medical Association, the National Institute on Aging, and the National Institute on Allergy and Infectious Diseases, researchers in infectious diseases, geriatrics, immunology, and gerontology met to review what is known about HIV infection and aging, to identify research gaps, and to suggest high priority topics for future research. Answers to the questions posed are likely to help prioritize and balance strategies to slow the progression of HIV infection, to address comorbidities and drug toxicity, and to enhance understanding about both HIV infection and aging.

Type C coping, alexithymia, and heart rate reactivity are associated independently and differentially with specific immune mechanisms linked to HIV progression

The maladaptive Type C coping style has been linked to disease progression in HIV and other immunologically mediated disorders. We hypothesized that strong Type C coping, higher levels of alexithymia, and greater cardiovascular (particularly heart rate) responses to, and prolonged recovery from stress would be associated with poorer functioning of immune parameters previously linked to HIV pathogenesis and progression: (1) antigen-stimulated production of the beta (beta)-chemokines MIP-1 alpha and MIP-1 beta, which bind to the HIV co-receptor CCR5 and block HIV entry into CD4(+) lymphocytes; and (2) antigen-stimulated production of the proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6), which synergizes immune activation associated with HIV replication. We examined relations among psychological, cardiovascular, and immune variables in a baseline sample of 200 HIV-infected, predominantly African American outpatients attending an HIV primary care clinic in inner-city Baltimore. In regression analyses adjusted for CD4(+) count and age, strong Type C coping was associated with significantly higher IL-6 production, as predicted. The theoretically related construct of alexithymia was correlated with significantly lower stimulated production of HIV-inhibiting MIP-1 alpha. Independent of alexithymia, greater heart rate reactivity, and poorer heart rate recovery in response to experimental stressors were also significantly associated with lower production of MIP-1 alpha, adjusted for cardiovascular medications, methadone use, CD4(+) count, and age. These findings support our primary set of hypotheses that maladaptive Type C coping, alexithymia, and heart rate reactivity/recovery are associated with disturbances in two key immune parameters implicated in HIV pathogenesis. Our secondary hypothesis, that dysregulated heart rate reactivity may mediate the connections between Type C coping and/or alexithymia and IL-6/ MIP-1 alpha was not confirmed. The finding that Type C coping, alexithymia, and heart rate reactivity/recovery are associated independently and differentially with specific aspects of relevant immune functioning may reflect distinct biobehavioral pathways that contribute to HIV progression.

Late HIV diagnosis and delay in CD4 count measurement among HIV-infected patients in Southern Thailand

The objectives of this study were to evaluate timeliness of HIV testing and of getting CD4 count measured and their associated factors in Southern Thailand. Between July 2004 and February 2005, consenting HIV-positive patients from seven public hospitals in Songkhla province, Southern Thailand were interviewed. Outcomes were late HIV diagnosis (having HIV-related symptoms at the time of first positive test) and the time between HIV diagnosis and first CD4 count being measured. Of 402 study patients, 55% were late HIV-diagnosed. Factors independently associated with late HIV diagnosis were age above 30 years, male and being unemployed with respective odd ratios (95% CI) of 3.10 (1.90-5.07), 7.95 (4.52-13.99), and 2.14 (1.22-3.76). Only 34% and 47% received CD4 assessment within 6 and 12 months of HIV diagnosis, respectively. Median of first-known CD4 count was 73 (IQR 16-169) and 22 (IQR 9-85) cells/microl among asymptomatic and symptomatic HIV-diagnosed patients, respectively. Common predictors for shortened delay of CD4 count measured among symptomatic and asymptomatic HIV-diagnosed patients were: infection through sexual contact (HR=1.61; 95%CI 1.12-2.33) and receiving posttest counseling (HR 1.71; 95%CI 1.15-2.52). Among the asymptomatic, those aged >25-30 years had significantly shortened delay (HR=2.18; 95%CI 1.50-3.18) compared with the younger age group as did those aged >30 years (HR=1.94; 95%CI 1.32-2.85). Such age effect on the delay was absent in the symptomatic group. Attempts to diagnose HIV at an earlier stage and timely CD4 count measured are needed.

Evolução da contagem de células T CD4+ de portadores de AIDS em contextos socialmente desiguais

Este estudo analisou a evolução da contagem de células T CD4+ em portadores de AIDS do Município do Rio de Janeiro, submetidos a esquemas anti-retrovirais altamente ativos (HAART), no Centro Municipal de Saúde (CMS) da Maré, localizado em complexo de favelas e no de Copacabana, localizado em área de elites. Imediatamente, antes de HAART, a mediana de linfócitos T CD4+ foi 181células/mm³ na Maré e 182células/mm³ em Copacabana. Após 24 semanas de HAART, a mediana alcançou 302 e 315células/mm³ nos dois CMS, respectivamente. Após HAART, os portadores de AIDS da Maré tiveram 2,8 vezes mais chances de não apresentarem resposta imunológica do que casos de Copacabana (IC95%: 1,1-7,2). Residentes em favelas da Maré tiveram 3,7 mais chances de não apresentarem resposta imunológica do que não residentes em favelas de Copacabana (IC95%: 1,2-11,5). Homens da Maré tiveram 4,4 mais chances de não apresentarem resposta imunológica do que os de Copacabana (IC95%: 1,1-18,2). Resultados sugerem pior prognóstico e maior letalidade para portadores de AIDS residentes em favelas, independente do acesso a HAART.

Effect of tuberculosis preventive therapy on HIV disease progression and survival in HIV-infected adults

PURPOSE

To determine whether tuberculosis (TB) preventive therapies alter the rate of disease progression to AIDS or death and to identify significant prognostic factors for HIV disease progression to AIDS.

METHOD

In a randomized placebo-controlled trial in Kampala, Uganda, 2,736 purified protein derivative (PPD)-positive and anergic HIV-infected adults were randomly assigned to four and two regimens, respectively. PPD-positive patients were treated with isoniazid (INH) for 6 months (6H; n = 536), INH plus rifampicin for 3 months (3HR; n = 556), INH plus rifampicin plus pyrazinamide for 3 months (3HRZ; n = 462), or placebo for 6 months (n = 464). Anergic participants were treated with 6H (n = 395) or placebo (n = 323).

RESULTS

During follow-up, 404 cases progressed to AIDS and 577 deaths occurred. The cumulative incidence of the AIDS progression was greater in the anergic cohort compared to the PPD-positive cohort (p < .0001). Among PPD-positive patients, the relative risk of the AIDS progression with INH alone was 0.95 (95% CI 0.68-1.32); with 3HR it was 0.83 (95% CI 0.59-1.17); and with 3HRZ it was 0.76 (95% CI 0.52-1.08), controlling for significant baseline predictors. Among anergic patients, the relative risk of the AIDS progression was 0.81 (95% CI 0.56-1.15). Survival was greater in the PPD-positive cohort compared to the anergic cohort (p = .0001).

CONCLUSION

The number of signs or symptoms at baseline and anergic status are associated with increasing morbidity and mortality. Even though the tuberculosis preventive therapies were effective in reducing the incidence of TB for HIV-infected adults, their benefit of delaying HIV disease progression to AIDS was not observed.

Impact of the Menstrual Cycle on Immunologic Markers in HIV-Infected Taiwanese Women

OBJECTIVE

This study tested the relationship between cellular immunity and the menstrual cycle in Taiwanese HIV-infected and normal women.

METHODS

From October 1997 to October 2001, 21 HIV-seropositive women and 30 controls were enrolled in this study. Blood was sampled for hormone profile (estradiol and progesterone) and immunophenotyping with flow cytometry during the follicular and luteal phases. Immunophenotyping included total blood cell count, lymphocyte count, CD4+ cells, CD8+ cells, and their activation markers, including CD25, CD69, HLA-DR, and CD38.

RESULTS

The proportion of CD8+ T cells increased during the follicular phase and activating antigens (HLADR and CD38) were elevated on CD8+ T cells of HIV-seropositive women. All these alterations seemed unrelated to the menstrual cycle.

CONCLUSIONS

The CD8+ T cells were increased and activated in women with HIV infection but these alterations were not affected by the menstrual cycle. Therefore, sex hormones seem not to affect the course of HIV infection.

HLA antigens as predictors of disease progression in HIV-infected haemophilia patients (a 22 years' follow up)

Our objective was to assess the influence of genetic factors such as HLA classes I and II antigens and other clinical and laboratory variables on the progression of HIV disease in a cohort of 118 HIV infected haemophilic subjects of Greek origin who had been typed for HLA antigens and were followed up prospectively for 22 years since seroconversion. At the end of the follow up we compared two groups of patients: 22 patients who had a fast progression to AIDS (median 6 years since seroconversion) vs. 33 patients who remained asymptomatic in stage A2 for up to 22 years (median 15 years). The results showed that the two groups did not differ significantly in age at seroconversion or baseline CD4+ T cell count. However there was a difference in the frequencies of certain HLA antigens in the two groups. The fast progressors had a higher frequency of HLA-A28, B21 and DR3, which was statistically significant (P = 0.02, 0.04, 0.05, respectively) compared to the slow progressors. These findings based on classical HLA typing techniques confirm other published observations and support the effect of genetic background in the progression of HIV infection in haemophilics.

The empirical evidence for the impact of HIV on adult mortality in the developing world: data from serological studies

BACKGROUND

Although national data in many African countries indicate rapidly rising mortality levels in the 1990s, only studies with information on the HIV serostatus of study subjects can provide the direct evidence that these changes are caused by HIV and quantify its contribution.

SURVIVAL

Median estimated survival from HIV seroconversion appears to be 8-9 years for individuals infected at 20-29 years, and is considerably shorter for older ages. Differences between estimates include: age structure, survivorship bias and mortality rates in uninfected persons.

MORTALITY RATES

Mortality rates for uninfected individuals in developing countries are 2-5 deaths per 1000 PY for those in their teens and twenties, increasing to 5-17 per 1000 PY for those in their thirties and forties; already 10 and 20-fold the rates in industrialized countries. Rates for infected individuals are higher still and vary considerably: 25-45, 70-120, 90-150, and 90-200 deaths per 1000 PY for those in their teens, twenties, thirties and forties respectively. Standardized for age, those infected experience 9-20 and 15-25 times the mortality rates of uninfected men and women respectively.

CONCLUSION

The impact of HIV on adult mortality in developing countries has been greatest in individuals in their twenties and thirties and is proportionately larger in women than men. Combining the available data yields a clearer picture, which could inform policy on delivery of potent anti-HIV therapy in resource-poor countries, and act as the baseline against which the impact of therapy at the population level can be assessed.

Differences in CD4 cell counts at seroconversion and decline among 5739 HIV-1-infected individuals with well-estimated dates of seroconversion

We studied repeated measurements of CD4 cell counts on 5739 HIV-1-infected individuals with reliably estimated dates of seroconversion (SC) aged > or =15 years at SC prior to initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) or AIDS using random effects models. Estimated CD4 cell count at SC differed significantly by sex, exposure group, and age, being higher in women, hemophilic men, and injection drug users (IDUs) as well as in those aged >40 years at SC. The rate of CD4 cell count decline did not differ significantly by sex; thus, differences between men and women were stable throughout the HIV-1 incubation period. There was a monotonic relationship between CD4 slopes and age at SC, with steeper slopes in older subjects. At 5 years after SC, the median difference in CD4 cell counts between the oldest (>40 years at SC) and youngest (16-20 years at SC) subjects was around 90 cells/microL. Mean rate of CD4 decline was significantly steeper in subjects diagnosed during acute infection. There was no evidence of a faster loss of CD4 cells in subjects who seroconverted after 1994. Apart from hemophilic men, who tended to have a steeper rate of CD4 decline on average, mean CD4 slopes did not differ by exposure category. These results suggest that before the initiation of HAART or other interventions based on immune status, consideration of demographic factors may be worthwhile.

Social support, distress, and well-being in older men living with HIV infection

Older men with HIV infection/AIDS, having often lived with the condition longer, are more likely to confront the stress of managing more advanced HIV disease than their younger counterparts. Meanwhile, they also are more likely to have less social support and experience more distress than younger persons with HIV infection. The moderating effect of social support on health functioning and distress is unknown for persons with HIV infection, particularly those who are older. Study objectives were to assess whether the association between perceived health functioning and psychological distress and well-being is moderated (or influenced) by social support and age and if the impact of social support on distress and well-being is more pronounced for older than for younger men living with HIV infection/AIDS. In this cross-sectional study of HIV-positive adult men (n = 199) who have sex with men, participants completed self-report assessments of perceived health functioning, social support, and psychological distress and well-being. Measures of health functioning and overall social support were significantly associated with outcome measures of distress and positive affect (all p < .05). However, the main effect for social support was qualified by a significant age-by-social support interaction for both outcomes (beta = -.190, p < .01 for distress; beta = .172, p < .05 for positive affect), indicating that the impact of social support on decreasing distress and increasing well-being was more pronounced in older men. The relationships between perceived health functioning and distress and well-being were not moderated by social support or age. The influence of social support on negative and positive moods in this population of HIV-infected men who have sex with men was significantly greater among older than among younger participants. With an increasing number of older people with HIV infection/AIDS, special efforts to create effective and sustainable social support interventions may be particularly beneficial to older persons living with HIV infection.

The sins of the fathers--Africans with HIV infection in London; lessons for others?

Many European countries have taken in immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa. The reasons for this are discussed and the particular problems experienced by HIV-infected Africans in London, and the approach to their care at St Thomas' Hospital, is delineated.

Does patient sex affect human immunodeficiency virus levels?

We undertook a critical epidemiological review of the available evidence concerning whether women have lower levels of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA than do men at similar stages of HIV infection. The 13 studies included in this analysis reported viral load measurements in HIV-infected men and women at a single point in time (cross-sectional studies) or over time (longitudinal studies). Seven of the 9 cross-sectional studies demonstrated that women had 0.13-0.35 log(10) ( approximately 2-fold) lower levels of HIV RNA than do men, despite controlling for CD4(+) cell count. Four longitudinal studies revealed that women had 0.33-0.78 log(10) (2- to 6-fold) lower levels of HIV RNA than do men, even when controlling for time since seroconversion. Adjustment for possible confounders of the relationship between sex and viral load, including age, race, mode of virus transmission, and antiretroviral therapy use, did not change this outcome. This finding is significant, because viral loads are frequently used to guide the initiation and modification of antiretroviral therapy.

Time to AIDS from 1992 to 1999 in HIV-1-infected subjects with known date of infection

To estimate the change in AIDS incubation time during three periods characterized by different availability of antiretroviral treatments, data from the French Hospital Database on HIV of 4702 HIV-1-positive subjects with a documented date of infection were analyzed. Times from seroconversion to AIDS were compared in three periods: period 1 from January 1992 to June 1995 (monotherapy); period 2 from July 1995 to June 1996 (dual therapy); and period 3 from July 1996 to June 1999 (triple therapy). Nonparametric survival analyses were performed to account for staggered entries in the database and during each period. From periods 1 to 3, antiretroviral treatments were initiated earlier after infection, more subjects were treated, and the nature of regimens changed (25.6% of subjects were treated with monotherapy in period 1, 34.6% were treated with dual therapy in period 2, and 53.4% were treated with triple therapy in period 3). Compared with period 1, the relative hazard (RH) of AIDS was 0.31 in period 3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.24-0.39). When comparing period 3 with period 2, the RH of AIDS was 0.36 (CI: 0.29-0.45). Assuming a log normal distribution, the median time to AIDS was estimated as 8.0 years in period 1 (CI: 6.0-10.6), 9.8 years in period 2 (CI: 8.5, 11.2), and 20.0 years in period 3 (CI: 17.1-23.3). This lengthening in time to AIDS from 1992 to 1999 was particularly marked in the period after the introduction of triple therapy, including protease inhibitors.

HIV seroconversion interval and demographic characteristics: no evidence of selection bias

OBJECTIVES

To determine if the interval between the last negative and the first positive HIV test is associated with demographic characteristics of HIV seroconverters.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of patients with HIV seroconversion enrolled in the Lyons HIV hospital database was analysed. Comparisons of demographic characteristics were performed after stratification on the duration of the interval between the last HIV negative screening test and the first HIV positive screening test, which ranged from 1 day to 24 months. Linear regression methods were used to identify the covariates associated with a negative HIV antibody test followed by a positive test.

RESULTS

Age (p = 0.54), sex (p = 0.78), heterosexual route of infection (p = 0.78), other route (p = 0.40) compared with homosexual route, and estimated year of HIV infection (p value ranged from 0.84 to 0.95) were not associated with a shorter seroconversion interval after multivariate analyses. The presence of an acute HIV illness was the only predictor of a short seroconversion interval (p = 0.006) with a reduction of 84 days of the interval when it was reported.

CONCLUSIONS

No selection bias for demographic characteristics of HIV seroconverters seems associated with the length of the seroconversion interval, at least for intervals < or = 24 months.

Multinomial analysis of smoothed HIV back-calculation models incorporating uncertainty in the AIDS incidence

Back-calculation models, developed to reconstruct the past trend of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to project future acquired immunodeficiency syndrome incidence (AIDS), are usually and unrealistically based on the assumption that the observed AIDS counts are independently distributed according to a Poisson process. In contrast, we argue that a multinomial framework is more suitable to this situation, leading to a natural covariance structure. The ill-conditioned nature of the problem is solved by modelling the HIV parameters according to a cubic spline function to reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space and obtain smoother parameter estimates. We applied a regression spline technique which yields to a computationally stable basis incorporating the incubation period in the new design matrix. We directly incorporate the reporting delay distribution in the AIDS incidence data, leading to a more complex formulation of the variance and covariance model that is adapted to the iteratively reweighted least square (IRLS) algorithm. In this case we obtain more accurate estimates of the standard error of the HIV incidence, especially in the most recent time. Our model, which uses a cubic spline reparameterization based on a multinomial probability distribution, is applied to the AIDS epidemic data in Italy.

Circumstances at HIV diagnosis and progression of disease in older HIV-infected Americans

OBJECTIVES

This study identified age-related differences in diagnosis and progression of HIV by analyzing a nationally representative sample of HIV-infected adults under care in the United States.

METHODS

We compared older (> or = 50 years) and younger participants stratified by race/ethnicity. Regression models controlled for demographic, therapeutic, and clinical factors.

RESULTS

Older non-Whites more often had HIV diagnosed when they were ill. Older and younger patients were clinically similar. At baseline, however, older non-Whites had fewer symptoms and were less likely to have AIDS, whereas at follow-up they had a trend toward lower survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Later HIV diagnosis in non-Whites merits public health attention; clinical progression in this group requires further study.

Relationship between HIV-1 Env subtypes A and D and disease progression in a rural Ugandan cohort

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the role of HIV-1 envelope subtypes on disease progression in a rural cohort of Ugandan adults where two major HIV-1 subtypes (A and D) exist.

METHODS

Participants of a clinical cohort seen between December 1995 and December 1998 had blood collected for HIV-1 subtyping. These included prevalent cases (people already infected with HIV at the start of the study in 1990) and incident cases (those who seroconverted between 1990 and December 1998). HIV-1 subtyping was carried out by heteroduplex mobility assay and DNA sequencing in the V3 env region. Disease progression was measured by the rate of CD4 lymphocyte count decline, clinical progression for the incident cases as time from seroconversion to AIDS or death, to first CD4 lymphocyte count < 200 x 10(6)/l and to the World Health Organization clinical stage 3. All analyses were adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-four individuals, including 47 prevalent and 117 incident cases, had V3 env subtype data of which 65 (40%) were subtyped as A and 99 as D. In the incident cases, 44 (38%) were subtyped as A and 73 as D. There was a suggestion that for most end-points A had a slower progression than D. The cumulative probability of remaining free from AIDS or death at 6 years post-seroconversion was 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.50 to 0.85] for A and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.71) for D, and the adjusted hazard ratio of subtype D compared to A was estimated to be 1.39 (95% CI, 0.66 to 2.94; P = 0.39). The estimated difference in rates of decline in square root CD4 lymphocyte counts was -0.41 per year (95% CI, -0.98 to 0.15; P = 0.15).

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that although subtype A may have a slower progression than D, HIV-1 envelope subtype is not a major factor in determining the progression of HIV-1 disease in a rural population in Uganda.

Age-related change in peripheral blood T-lymphocyte subpopulations and cytomegalovirus infection in the very old: the Swedish longitudinal OCTO immune study

Results from the previous times (Times 1-3) of the Swedish longitudinal OCTO immune study indicated that a combination of high CD8 and low CD4 percentages and poor T-cell proliferation in PBL was associated with a higher 2-year mortality in a sample of very old Swedish individuals. The combination of immune parameters was closely related to an inverted CD4/CD8 ratio. In the present study at Time 4 (T4) results are reported from the final follow-up of this longitudinal study, 8 years after it was initiated in 1989. An additional goal at this time point was to examine the immune system alterations in the very old in relation to evidence of lymphocyte activation and cytomegalovirus antibody status. In the present study immune system changes were identified that suggest a loss of T-cell homeostasis, as reflected by a decrease in the number of CD4 cells and a very significant increase in the number of CD8 cells in individuals with an inverted CD4/CD8 ratio. When considered over the duration of the OCTO study the inversion occurred in a high percentage (32%) of the individuals included in the original sample and was associated with non-survival. At T4 the changes were apparent in a number of the T-cell subsets, but particularly in the CD8+CD28-and CD57+ subsets. T-cell activation was significantly associated with the inversion of the CD4/CD8 ratio. In this very old sample the subset alterations were associated with evidence of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection.

Changes in the uptake of antiretroviral therapy and survival in people with known duration of HIV infection in Europe: results from CASCADE

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the times from HIV seroconversion to death, and to the initiation of therapy and the mean CD4 cell count at initiation.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Using Kaplan-Meier methods, allowing for late entry, we analysed CASCADE (Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe) data from HIV-infected individuals with known dates of seroconversion. We tested the association of time to initiation of therapy and of survival with: exposure category, age, sex, presentation during acute infection and calendar year at risk (as time-dependent) in Cox proportional hazards models, stratifying by study. We estimated the mean CD4 cell count at the initiation of therapy using interval regression.

RESULTS

Of 5893 seroconverters, 1613 (27.4%) died. The risk of death was 65% lower (95% CI = 57-72%) in 1997-99 compared to previous years. Being at risk in earlier calendar years, older age and a short interval between negative and positive test dates were associated with shorter survival. At the same time from seroconversion, people at risk in 1997-99, older individuals and people with a short test interval were more likely to initiate therapy. Injecting drug users (IDUs) were less likely to initiate therapy compared to those exposed through sex between men (RR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.69-0.89). The mean CD4 cell count at therapy initiation was 205 cells/mL, which increased significantly over time. Although the earlier initiation of therapy was consistent with longer survival in the 1997-99 period, we found no evidence of this in other calendar periods.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a significant and substantial reduction in the risk of death and a significant trend of earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the 1997-99 period. Although IDUs were less likely to initiate therapy their overall survival did not appear to differ from others. The increasing tendency to initiate ART closer to seroconversion has unknown long-term consequences which require monitoring.

Back-calculation by birth cohort, incorporating age- specific disease progression, pre-AIDS mortality and change in European AIDS case definition. European Union Concerted Action on Multinational AIDS Scenarios

OBJECTIVES

To adapt and improve methodology for back-calculation of AIDS in Europe and to examine the feasibility of estimating past HIV incidence by birth cohort.

METHODS

Empirical Bayesian back-calculation (EBBC) used Markov disease progression models, modified to allow for three diseases added to the AIDS case definition in 1993 and for pre-AIDS mortality, and estimation by penalized maximum likelihood with a neighbour prior. EBBC by 5-year birth cohort assumed a minimum age at infection and age-dependent progression rates; three versions, with varying age effects, were investigated using AIDS cases diagnosed prior to the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART).

RESULTS

Compared with the no age-effect version, EBBC by birth cohort tended to produce flattened HIV incidence curves in country-exposure groups with < 1000 AIDS cases, reflecting effects of the neighbour prior when data become sparse. Otherwise, birth cohort analysis, with moderate effects of age on progression, gave initially increasing incidence curves and consistent patterns across countries, with the 1960-1964 cohort most affected. In the European Union, incidence is estimated to have peaked in 1983 among homosexual men and in 1988 among injecting drug users; 460000 persons were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS at the end of 1995.

CONCLUSIONS

Our improved methodology deals effectively with the change in AIDS case definition and has allowed quantitative assessments of the HIV epidemic by birth cohort using all AIDS cases diagnosed before 1996, thus providing a sound basis for public health policy at a time when estimation of more recent prevalence is compromised by the effects of HAART.

Effect of ignoring the time of HIV seroconversion in estimating changes in survival over calendar time in observational studies: results from CASCADE

OBJECTIVE

To compare estimates of changes in HIV survival over time derived from seroconverter and prevalent cohorts.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Using pooled data from 19 seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE), the relative risk of death from HIV seroconversion by calendar time at risk from 1 January 1991 was examined. The analyses were repeated, ignoring knowledge of the time of seroconversion, but adjusting for the CD4 cell count at the time the participant came under observation, thus mimicking a prevalent cohort. Estimates from the 'prevalent' cohort approach were compared with those obtained from the seroconverter cohort.

RESULTS

Of 5428 subjects at risk on 1 January 1991 or later, 1312 (24.2%) had died. In the analysis based on time from seroconversion, estimates of the effect of calendar year showed marked reductions in mortality in 1997-1999 only, with no evidence of a linear trend over the period 1991-1996 (P-trend = 0.85). Using the prevalent cohort approach a decrease in the relative risk of death was observed from 1991 to 1998-1999, with a statistically significant trend of a decrease in risk from 1991 to 1996 (P-trend = 0.002). Similar findings were observed when the analyses was repeated taking the start date of the cohort as 1 January 1988.

CONCLUSION

Lack of knowledge of HIV infection duration may lead to biased and exaggerated estimates of survival improvements over time. The adjustment for duration of infection in prevalent HIV cohorts through laboratory markers may compensate inadequately for this.

Women and HIV--revisited ten years on

This article compares how women and their relationship to HIV has changed since the original publication of this article in 1990. The number of women infected with HIV has continued to rise, but, in contrast, there have been few changes in their management. We review transmission risks and manifestations of the infection, and also discuss the issues faced by women with HIV.

[AIDS-free time and survival of an injecting drug users HIV seroconvertors cohort]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze AIDS free time, survival and the pre-AIDS survival for a injecting drug users cohort (IDU) of HIV seroconvertors.

SUBJECT AND METHODS

Interval for seroconversion was available for 276 IDUs from Centers for AIDS Information and Prevention (CIPS) recruited between 1987 and until June of 1996. AIDS diagnosis and vital status dates were obtained by follow up at hospitals, mortality and AIDS registries, and CIPS visits. The end of follow up was December of 1996. Seroconversion date was estimated as the middle point between last HIV- and first HIV+. Kaplan-Meier extension and Cox regression for truncated data were fitted to estimate AIDS-free and survival times and to observe differences by sex, age consumption time and year of seroconversion. Weibull, and Log-normal parametric models were fitted to estimate median and percentiles of AIDS-free and survival times distribution.

RESULTS

34 cases have been identified as AIDS, 24 as deaths, 9 of them being before AIDS. 63.5% of the individuals were AIDS-free 7 years after seroconversion, and the probability of death was 25.50. Pre-AIDS mortality is around 8.7%. There were not significant differences by sex, age, consumption time and year of seroconversion. Log-normal model fitted better estimating an AIDS-free median time of 10.93 years and 13.67 survival years.

CONCLUSION

The incubation period of HIV infection in a cohort of seroconvertors in our environment was around 11 years, not different from that observed out of the Mediterranean area as Holland, Scotland or United States

Survival and progression of HIV disease in women attending GUM/HIV clinics in Britain and Ireland. Study Group for the MRC Collaborative Study of HIV Infection in Women

OBJECTIVES

To describe the pattern of clinical disease in women with HIV infection and to examine the effect of potential cofactors, including oral contraceptive use, alcohol and smoking, ethnic group, and route of HIV transmission, on progression to AIDS and death.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

15 HIV and genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics in Britain and Ireland.

PARTICIPANTS

505 women aged over 18 years with a positive HIV antibody test entered the study between June 1992 and August 1995, with outcome data available for 503 women, and 1208 woman years of follow up to April 1996.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

AIDS defining conditions, incidence of AIDS, and death.

RESULTS

120 women (24%) had AIDS at entry to the study. There were 99 incident AIDS cases and 132 deaths during 1208 woman years of follow up. Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) was the commonest first AIDS defining condition in white women (31% of AIDS cases), followed by oesophageal candidiasis (19%) while tuberculosis was the most common first AIDS defining condition among black African women (24% of AIDS cases), followed by oesophageal candidiasis (19%). In multivariate analyses, rate of progression to AIDS was significantly related to CD4 lymphocyte count at entry and PCP prophylaxis, but not to ethnic group, route of HIV transmission, alcohol, smoking, or oral contraceptive use. Mortality from all causes was not significantly different in women infected through injecting drugs (adjusted ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.8) compared with those infected through sexual intercourse, and non-significantly lower in black African women (0.7, 0.3-1.2) compared with white women. Survival was not significantly related to smoking, alcohol, or oral contraceptive use.

CONCLUSIONS

In women attending GUM/HIV clinics, the pattern of AIDS defining conditions differs by ethnic group, but progression of HIV disease is not importantly related to smoking, alcohol, oral contraceptive use, route of HIV transmission, or ethnic group.

Similar rate of disease progression among individuals infected with HIV-1 genetic subtypes A-D

OBJECTIVE

HIV-1 is characterized by a high degree of genetic variation and can be divided into at least 10 distinct genetic subtypes. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the rate of disease progression shows subtype-specific differences.

DESIGN

The investigation was divided into two parts; one study in which 49 ethnic Africans were compared with 49 ethnic Swedes irrespective of the subtype of the infecting virus, and a second study in which 126 individuals infected with different genetic subtypes (28 with subtype A, 59 with subtype B, 21 with subtype C and 18 with subtype D) were compared.

METHODS

CD4 cell counts, the rate of CD4 cell decline, plasma HIV-1 RNA levels, clinical status and antiviral treatment were prospectively and retrospectively recorded. The HIV-1 subtype had previously been determined by direct sequencing of the V3 domain of the env gene.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in the rate of CD4 cell decline or clinical disease progression between Africans and Swedes over an observation period of 2 years. Similarly, there were no differences in the rate of CD4 cell decline, clinical progression or plasma HIV-1 RNA levels between individuals infected with subtypes A, B, C or D over a mean observation period of 44 months.

CONCLUSION

Neither the genetic subtype of the virus nor the ethnicity of the host appear to be major determinants of disease progression.