The animal story

Vacated niches, competitive release and the community ecology of pathogen eradication

A recurring theme in the epidemiological literature on disease eradication is that each pathogen occupies an ecological niche, and eradication of one pathogen leaves a vacant niche that favours the emergence of new pathogens to replace it. However, eminent figures have rejected this view unequivocally, stating that there is no basis to fear pathogen replacement and even that pathogen niches do not exist. After exploring the roots of this controversy, I propose resolutions to disputed issues by drawing on broader ecological theory, and advance a new consensus based on robust mechanistic principles. I argue that pathogen eradication (and cessation of vaccination) leads to a 'vacated niche', which could be re-invaded by the original pathogen if introduced. Consequences for other pathogens will vary, with the crucial mechanisms being competitive release, whereby the decline of one species allows its competitors to perform better, and evolutionary adaptation. Hence, eradication can cause a quantitative rise in the incidence of another infection, but whether this leads to emergence as an endemic pathogen depends on additional factors. I focus on the case study of human monkeypox and its rise following smallpox eradication, but also survey how these ideas apply to other pathogens and discuss implications for eradication policy.

The principles and feasibility of disease eradication

Smallpox eradication framed disease eradication as a monumental public health achievement in global health equity. The principles of disease eradication are encapsulated in a constellation of four conditions: biologic feasibility, adequate public health infrastructure, sufficient funding, and sustained political/societal will. Where the constellation exists, national eradication occurs in the absence of a global initiative. Assessing the feasibility of global eradication requires determining the constellation gaps for nations of all regions and identifying the human and financial resources to fill the gaps. The economic and humanitarian benefits of eradication have strong appeal. Global polio and guinea worm efforts are underway. Regional eradication of measles and rubella has been achieved in the Americas and other diseases have been proposed. Global decisions on disease eradication should include careful consideration of opportunity costs and prioritization of limited global health resources, with the objective of providing the most appropriate, cost-beneficial, and equitable outcome of disease control.

Asian lineage of peste des petits ruminants virus, Africa

Interest in peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) has been stimulated by recent changes in its host and geographic distribution. For this study, biological specimens were collected from camels, sheep, and goats clinically suspected of having PPRV infection in Sudan during 2000-2009 and from sheep soon after the first reported outbreaks in Morocco in 2008. Reverse transcription PCR analysis confirmed the wide distribution of PPRV throughout Sudan and spread of the virus in Morocco. Molecular typing of 32 samples positive for PPRV provided strong evidence of the introduction and broad spread of Asian lineage IV. This lineage was defined further by 2 subclusters; one consisted of camel and goat isolates and some of the sheep isolates, while the other contained only sheep isolates, a finding with suggests a genetic bias according to the host. This study provides evidence of the recent spread of PPRV lineage IV in Africa.

A model to control the epidemic of H5N1 influenza at the source

Background

No country is fully prepared for a 1918-like pandemic influenza. Averting a pandemic of H5N1 influenza virus depends on the successful control of its endemicity, outbreaks in poultry and occasional spillage into human which carries a case-fatality rate of over 50%. The use of perimetric depopulation and vaccination has failed to halt the spread of the epidemic. Blanket vaccination for all poultry over a large geographical area is difficult. A combination of moratorium, segregation of water fowls from chickens and vaccination have been proved to be effective in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) since 2002 despite endemicity and outbreaks in neighbouring regions. Systematic surveillance in southern China showed that ducks and geese are the primary reservoirs which transmit the virus to chickens, minor poultry and even migratory birds.

Presentation of the hypothesis

We hypothesize that this combination of moratorium, poultry segregation and targeted vaccination if successfully adapted to an affected district or province in any geographical region with high endemicity would set an example for the control in other regions.

Testing the hypothesis

A planned one-off moratorium of 3 weeks at the hottest month of the year should decrease the environmental burden as a source of re-infection. Backyard farms will then be re-populated by hatchlings from virus-free chickens and minor poultry only. Targeted immunization of the ducks and geese present only in the industrial farms and also the chickens would be strictly implemented as blanket immunization of all backyard poultry is almost impossible. Freely grazing ducks and geese would not be allowed until neutralizing antibodies of H5 subtype virus is achieved. As a proof of concept, a simple mathematical model with susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) structure of coupled epidemics between aquatic birds (mainly ducks and geese) and chickens was used to estimate transmissibility within and between these two poultry populations. In the field the hypothesis is tested by prospective surveillance of poultry and immunocompetent patients hospitalized for severe pneumonia for the virus before and after the institution of these measures.

Implications of the Hypothesis

A combination of targeted immunization with the correct vaccine, segregation of poultry species and moratorium of poultry in addition to the present surveillance, biosecurity and hygienic measures at the farm, market and personal levels could be important in the successful control of the H5N1 virus in poultry and human for an extensive geographical region with continuing outbreaks. Alternatively a lesser scale of intervention at the district level can be considered if there is virus detection without evidence of excess poultry deaths since asymptomatic shedding is common in waterfowls.

Human and animal vaccination delivery to remote nomadic families, Chad

Vaccinating nomadic pastoralists and their livestock at the same time reduces delivery costs.

Vaccination services for people and livestock often fail to achieve sufficient coverages in Africa’s remote rural settings because of financial, logistic, and service delivery constraints. In Chad from 2000 through 2005, we demonstrated the feasibility of combining vaccination programs for nomadic pastoralists and their livestock. Sharing of transport logistics and equipment between physicians and veterinarians reduced total costs. Joint delivery of human and animal health services is adapted to and highly valued by hard-to-reach pastoralists. In intervention zones, for the first time ≈10% of nomadic children (>1–11 months of age) were fully immunized annually and more children and women were vaccinated per day during joint vaccination rounds than during vaccination of persons only and not their livestock (130 vs. 100, p<0.001). By optimizing use of limited logistical and human resources, public health and veterinary services both become more effective, especially at the district level.