Impact of introduction of rapid diagnostic tests for malaria on antibiotic prescribing: analysis of observational and randomised studies in public and private healthcare settings

Understanding pre-hospital disease management of fever and diarrhoea in children-Care pathways in rural Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

Many children in sub-Saharan Africa die from infectious diseases like malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoea that can be prevented by early diagnosis, effective and targeted treatment. This study aimed to gain insights into case management practices by parents before they present their children to hospital.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study among 332 parents attending a district hospital with their under-fives symptomatic with fever and/or diarrhoea between November 2019 and July 2020 in rural Tanzania. Timely and targeted treatment was defined as seeking health care within 24 h of fever onset, and continued fluid intake in case of diarrhoea.

RESULTS

The main admission diagnoses were acute respiratory infections (61.8%), malaria (25.3%), diarrhoea (18.4%) and suspected sepsis (8.1%). The majority of children (91%) received treatment prior to admission, mostly antipyretics (75.6%), local herbal medicines (26.8%), and antibiotics (17.8%)-half of them without prescription from a clinician. For diarrhoea, the use of oral rehydration solution was rare (9.0%), although perceived as easily accessible and affordable. 49.4% of the parents presented their children directly to the hospital, 23.2% went to a pharmacy/drug shop and 19.3% to a primary health facility first. Malaria symptoms began mostly 3 days before the hospital visit; only 25.4% of febrile children visited any health facility within 24 h of disease onset. Prior use of local herbal medicine (AOR = 3.2; 95% CI 1.4-7.3), visiting the pharmacy (adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-9.8), the dispensary being the nearest health facility (AOR = 3.0; 95% CI: 1.5-6.2), and financial difficulties (AOR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.1-4.5) were associated with delayed treatment.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that antipyretics and antibiotics dispensed at pharmacies/drug shops, as well as use of local herbal medicines, delay early diagnosis and treatment, which can be life-threatening. Pharmacies/drug shops could be integrated as key focal points for sensitising community members on how to respond to paediatric illnesses and encourage the use of oral rehydration solutions.

Prevalence and predictors of residual antibiotics in children's blood in community settings in Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

Children account for a significant proportion of antibiotic consumption in low- and middle-income countries, with overuse occurring in formal and informal health sectors. This study assessed the prevalence and predictors of residual antibiotics in the blood of children in the Mbeya and Morogoro regions of Tanzania.

METHODS

The cross-sectional community-based survey used two-stage cluster sampling to include children aged under 15 years. For each child, information on recent illness, healthcare-seeking behaviour, and use of antibiotics, as well as a dried blood spot sample, were collected. The samples underwent tandem mass spectrometry analysis to quantify the concentrations of 15 common antibiotics. Associations between survey variables and the presence of residual antibiotics were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression.

RESULTS

In total, 1742 children were surveyed, and 1699 analysed. The overall prevalence of residual antibiotics in the blood samples was 17.4% (296/1699), the highest among children under the age of 5 years. The most frequently detected antibiotics were trimethoprim (144/1699; 8.5%), sulfamethoxazole (102/1699; 6.0%), metronidazole (61/1699; 3.6%), and amoxicillin (43/1699; 2.5%). The strongest predictors of residual antibiotics in the blood were observed presence of antibiotics at home (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.9; 95% CI, 2.0-4.1) and reported consumption of antibiotics in the last 2 weeks (aOR = 2.5; 95% CI, 1.6-3.9). However, half (145/296) of the children who had residual antibiotics in their blood, some with multiple antibiotics, had no reported history of illness or antibiotic consumption in the last 2 weeks, and antibiotics were not found at home.

DISCUSSION

This study demonstrated a high prevalence of antibiotic exposure among children in Tanzanian communities, albeit likely underestimated, especially for compounds with short half-lives. A significant proportion of antibiotic exposure was unexplained and may have been due to unreported self-medication or environmental pathways. Incorporating biomonitoring into surveillance strategies can help better understand exposure patterns and design antibiotic stewardship interventions.

Improving malaria case management with artemisinin-based combination therapies and malaria rapid diagnostic tests in private medicine retail outlets in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review

Private medicine retailers (PMRs) such as pharmacies and drug stores account for a substantial share of treatment-seeking for fever and malaria, but there are widespread concerns about quality of care, including inadequate access to malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). This review synthesizes evidence on the effectiveness of interventions to improve malaria case management in PMRs in sub-Saharan Africa (PROSPERO #2021:CRD42021253564). We included quantitative studies evaluating interventions supporting RDT and/or ACT sales by PMR staff, with a historical or contemporaneous control group, and outcomes related to care received. We searched Medline Ovid, Embase Ovid, Global Health Ovid, Econlit Ovid and the Cochrane Library; unpublished studies were identified by contacting key informants. We conducted a narrative synthesis by intervention category. We included 41 papers, relating to 34 studies. There was strong evidence that small and large-scale ACT subsidy programmes (without RDTs) increased the market share of quality-assured ACT in PMRs, including among rural and poorer groups, with increases of over 30 percentage points in most settings. Interventions to introduce or enhance RDT use in PMRs led to RDT uptake among febrile clients of over two-thirds and dispensing according to RDT result of over three quarters, though some studies had much poorer results. Introducing Integrated Community Case Management (iCCM) was also effective in improving malaria case management. However, there were no eligible studies on RDT or iCCM implementation at large scale. There was limited evidence that PMR accreditation (without RDTs) increased ACT uptake. Key evidence gaps include evaluations of RDTs and iCCM at large scale, evaluations of interventions including use of digital technologies, and robust studies of accreditation and other broader PMR interventions.

Healthcare as a driver, reservoir and amplifier of antimicrobial resistance: opportunities for interventions

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health challenge that threatens humans, animals and the environment. Evidence is emerging for a role of healthcare infrastructure, environments and patient pathways in promoting and maintaining AMR via direct and indirect mechanisms. Advances in vaccination and monoclonal antibody therapies together with integrated surveillance, rapid diagnostics, targeted antimicrobial therapy and infection control measures offer opportunities to address healthcare-associated AMR risks more effectively. Additionally, innovations in artificial intelligence, data linkage and intelligent systems can be used to better predict and reduce AMR and improve healthcare resilience. In this Review, we examine the mechanisms by which healthcare functions as a driver, reservoir and amplifier of AMR, contextualized within a One Health framework. We also explore the opportunities and innovative solutions that can be used to combat AMR throughout the patient journey. We provide a perspective on the current evidence for the effectiveness of interventions designed to mitigate healthcare-associated AMR and promote healthcare resilience within high-income and resource-limited settings, as well as the challenges associated with their implementation.

Modeling pediatric antibiotic use in an area of declining malaria prevalence

In malaria-endemic areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, overlap of clinical symptoms between malarial and non-malarial febrile illnesses can lead to empiric use of antibiotics among children. Our study aimed to illustrate the potential impact of decreasing malaria prevalence from malaria control efforts on antibiotic use. We constructed a probabilistic decision tree model representing antibiotic prescription in febrile children < 5 years. This model was used to predict change in absolute antibiotic use compared to baseline under levels of decreasing malaria prevalence. Model parameters were based on data from a hospital study in Ghana and validated via literature review. The baseline prevalence of malaria diagnoses was 52% among all hospitalized children. For our main results, we reported outcomes for a scenario representing a 50% decrease in malaria prevalence. Compared to baseline, absolute antibiotic prescription decreased from a baseline of 639 doses (95% CI 574-694) to 575 (95% CI 502-638). This reflected a 10% (95% CI 7%-13%) decrease in absolute antibiotic use. Our findings demonstrate that effective malaria control can reduce pediatric antibiotic use. However, until substantial progress is made in developing accurate diagnostics for non-malarial febrile illnesses, further reductions in antibiotic use will remain a challenge.

A pilot study investigating severe community-acquired febrile illness through implementation of an innovative microbiological and nucleic acid amplification testing strategy in Timor-Leste (ISIN-MANAS-TL)

Objectives

Acute febrile illness (AFI) causes significant health-seeking, morbidity, and mortality in Southeast Asia. This pilot study aimed to describe presentation, etiology, treatment, and outcomes of patients with AFI at one hospital in Timor-Leste and assessing the feasibility of conducting larger studies in this setting.

Methods

Patients attending Hospital Nacional Guido Valadares with tympanic or axillary temperature ≥37.5°C in whom a blood culture was taken as part of routine clinical care were eligible. Participants were followed up daily for 10 days and again after 30 days. Whole blood was analyzed using a real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay detecting dengue virus serotypes 1-4 and other arthropod-borne infections.

Results

A total of 82 participants were recruited. Polymerase chain reaction testing was positive for dengue in 14 of 82 (17.1%) participants and blood culture identified a bacterial pathogen in three of 82 (3.7%) participants. Follow-up was completed by 75 of 82 (91.5%) participants. High rates of hospital admission (58 of 82, 70.7%), broad-spectrum antimicrobial treatment (34 of 82, 41.5%), and mortality (9 of 82, 11.0%) were observed.

Conclusions

Patients with AFI experience poor clinical outcomes. Prospective observational and interventional studies assessing interventions, such as enhanced diagnostic testing, clinical decision support tools, or antimicrobial stewardship interventions, are required and would be feasible to conduct in this setting.

Diagnostic accuracy of DPP Fever Panel II Asia tests for tropical fever diagnosis

BACKGROUND

Fever is the most frequent symptom in patients seeking care in South and Southeast Asia. The introduction of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria continues to drive patient management and care. Malaria-negative cases are commonly treated with antibiotics without confirmation of bacteraemia. Conventional laboratory tests for differential diagnosis require skilled staff and appropriate access to healthcare facilities. In addition, introducing single-disease RDTs instead of conventional laboratory tests remains costly. To overcome some of the delivery challenges of multiple separate tests, a multiplexed RDT with the capacity to diagnose a diverse range of tropical fevers would be a cost-effective solution. In this study, a multiplex lateral flow immunoassay (DPP Fever Panel II Assay) that can detect serum immunoglobulin M (IgM) and specific microbial antigens of common fever agents in Asia (Orientia tsutsugamushi, Rickettsia typhi, Leptospira spp., Burkholderia pseudomallei, Dengue virus, Chikungunya virus, and Zika virus), was evaluated.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Whole blood (WB) and serum samples from 300 patients with undefined febrile illness (UFI) recruited in Vientiane, Laos PDR were tested using the DPP Fever Panel II, which consists of an Antibody panel and Antigen panel. To compare reader performance, results were recorded using two DPP readers, DPP Micro Reader (Micro Reader 1) and DPP Micro Reader Next Generation (Micro Reader 2). WB and serum samples were run on the same fever panel and read on both micro readers in order to compare results. ROC analysis and equal variance analysis were performed to inform the diagnostic validity of the test compared against the respective reference standards of each fever agent (S1 Table). Overall better AUC values were observed in whole blood results. No significant difference in AUC performance was observed when comparing whole blood and serum sample testing, except for when testing for R. typhi IgM (p = 0.04), Leptospira IgM (p = 0.02), and Dengue IgG (p = 0.03). Linear regression depicted R2 values had ~70% agreement across WB and serum samples, except when testing for leptospirosis and Zika, where the R2 values were 0.37 and 0.47, respectively. No significant difference was observed between the performance of Micro Reader 1 and Micro Reader 2, except when testing for the following pathogens: Zika IgM, Zika IgG, and B pseudomallei CPS Ag.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

These results demonstrate that the diagnostic accuracy of the DPP Fever Panel II is comparable to that of commonly used RDTs. The optimal cut-off would depend on the use of the test and the desired sensitivity and specificity. Further studies are required to authenticate the use of these cut-offs in other endemic regions. This multiplex RDT offers diagnostic benefits in areas with limited access to healthcare and has the potential to improve field testing capacities. This could improve tropical fever management and reduce the public health burden in endemic low-resource areas.

Monthly Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine During Pregnancy Prevents Febrile Respiratory Illnesses: A Secondary Analysis of a Malaria Chemoprevention Trial in Uganda

Background

Trials evaluating antimalarials for intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) have shown that dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) is a more efficacious antimalarial than sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP); however, SP is associated with higher birthweight, suggesting that SP demonstrates "nonmalarial" effects. Chemoprevention of nonmalarial febrile illnesses (NMFIs) was explored as a possible mechanism.

Methods

In this secondary analysis, we leveraged data from 654 pregnant Ugandan women without HIV infection who participated in a randomized controlled trial comparing monthly IPTp-SP with IPTp-DP. Women were enrolled between 12 and 20 gestational weeks and followed through delivery. NMFIs were measured by active and passive surveillance and defined by the absence of malaria parasitemia. We quantified associations among IPTp regimens, incident NMFIs, antibiotic prescriptions, and birthweight.

Results

Mean "birthweight for gestational age" Z scores were 0.189 points (95% CI, .045-.333) higher in women randomized to IPTp-SP vs IPTp-DP. Women randomized to IPTp-SP had fewer incident NMFIs (incidence rate ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, .58-.95), mainly respiratory NMFIs (incidence rate ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, .48-1.00), vs IPTp-DP. Counterintuitively, respiratory NMFI incidence was positively correlated with birthweight in multigravidae. In total 75% of respiratory NMFIs were treated with antibiotics. Although overall antibiotic prescriptions were similar between arms, for each antibiotic prescribed, "birthweight for gestational age" Z scores increased by 0.038 points (95% CI, .001-.074).

Conclusions

Monthly IPTp-SP was associated with reduced respiratory NMFI incidence, revealing a potential nonmalarial mechanism of SP and supporting current World Health Organization recommendations for IPTp-SP, even in areas with high-grade SP resistance. While maternal respiratory NMFIs are known risk factors of lower birthweight, most women in our study were presumptively treated with antibiotics, masking the potential benefit of SP on birthweight mediated through preventing respiratory NMFIs.

Challenges in Diagnosing and Treating Acutely Febrile Children with Suspected Malaria at Health Care Facilities in the Lake Mwanza Region of Tanzania

Acute febrile diseases transmitted by mosquitos are a diagnostic challenge for pediatricians working in sub-Saharan Africa. Misclassification due to the lack of rapid, reliable diagnostic tests leads to the overuse of antibiotics and antimalarials. Children presenting with acute fever and suspected of having malaria were examined at health care facilities in the Mwanza Region of Tanzania. The sensitivity and specificity of blood smear microscopy and malaria rapid diagnostic tests that targeted histidine-rich protein 2 and Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase were compared with a multiplex reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-ELISA. Six hundred ninety-eight children presented with acute fever and met the criteria for inclusion; 23% received antibiotics and 23% received antimalarials prior to admission. Subsequently, 20% were confirmed by PCR to have Plasmodium falciparum infection. Blood smear microscopy exhibited 33% sensitivity and 93% specificity. The malaria rapid test provided 87% sensitivity and 98% specificity in detecting acute malaria infections. Only 7% of malaria-negative children received antimalarials at Sengerema Designated District Hospital when treatment was guided by the results of rapid testing. In contrast, 75% of malaria-negative patients were treated with antimalarial drugs at health facilities that used blood smears as the standard diagnostic test. Misclassification and premedication of nonmalarial, febrile illnesses contribute to the emergence of antimalarial and antimicrobial resistance. The incorporation of malaria rapid diagnostic tests into the clinical routine translated into improved treatment and a significant reduction in antimalarial drug prescriptions.

Investigating the etiologies of non-malarial febrile illness in Senegal using metagenomic sequencing

The worldwide decline in malaria incidence is revealing the extensive burden of non-malarial febrile illness (NMFI), which remains poorly understood and difficult to diagnose. To characterize NMFI in Senegal, we collected venous blood and clinical metadata in a cross-sectional study of febrile patients and healthy controls in a low malaria burden area. Using 16S and untargeted sequencing, we detected viral, bacterial, or eukaryotic pathogens in 23% (38/163) of NMFI cases. Bacteria were the most common, with relapsing fever Borrelia and spotted fever Rickettsia found in 15.5% and 3.8% of cases, respectively. Four viral pathogens were found in a total of 7 febrile cases (3.5%). Sequencing also detected undiagnosed Plasmodium, including one putative P. ovale infection. We developed a logistic regression model that can distinguish Borrelia from NMFIs with similar presentation based on symptoms and vital signs (F1 score: 0.823). These results highlight the challenge and importance of improved diagnostics, especially for Borrelia, to support diagnosis and surveillance.

A Narrative Review of Recent Antibiotic Prescribing Practices in Ambulatory Care in Tanzania: Findings and Implications

Background and objectives: There are concerns with the current prescribing practices of antibiotics in ambulatory care in Tanzania, including both the public and private sectors. These concerns need to be addressed as part of the national action plan (NAP) of Tanzania to reduce rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) rates. Issues and concerns include high rates of prescribing of antibiotics for essentially self-limiting conditions. Consequently, there is a need to address this. As a result, the aims of this narrative review were to comprehensively summarize antibiotic utilization patterns particularly in ambulatory care and their rationale in Tanzania and to suggest ways forward to improve future prescribing practices. Materials and Methods: We undertook a narrative review of recently published studies and subsequently documented potential activities to improve future prescribing practices. Potential activities included instigating quality indicators and antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs). Results: Published studies have shown that antibiotics are being excessively prescribed in ambulatory care in Tanzania, in up to 95% to 96.3% of presenting cases depending on the sector. This is despite concerns with their appropriateness. High rates of antibiotic prescribing are not helped by variable adherence to current treatment guidelines. There have also been concerns with extensive prescribing of 'Watch' antibiotics in the private sector. Overall, the majority of antibiotics prescribed across the sectors, albeit inappropriately, were typically from the 'Access' group of antibiotics in the AWaRe (Access/Watch/Reserve) classification rather than 'Watch' antibiotics to limit AMR. The inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics in ambulatory care is linked to current knowledge regarding antibiotics, AMR, and ASPs among both prescribers and patients. Recommended activities for the future include improved education for all groups, the instigation of updated quality indicators, and the regular monitoring of prescribing practices against agreed-upon guidelines and indicators. Education for healthcare professionals on ASPs should start at undergraduate level and continue post qualification. Community advocacy on the rational use of antibiotics should also include social media activities to dispel misinformation. Conclusion: The quality of current prescribing practices of antibiotics in ambulatory care is sub-optimal in Tanzania. This needs to be urgently addressed.

Community-level incidence and treatment seeking during febrile illness: Insights from health behaviour surveys in rural Thailand and Laos

OBJECTIVE

Critical gaps remain in understanding community perceptions and treatment-seeking behaviours in case of fever. This is especially relevant considering global antimicrobial resistance, where fever is assumed to provoke non-judicious antibiotic use. Our study objective was therefore to document the community-level incidence of fever, the resulting treatment-seeking processes, and their underlying behavioural drivers.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional observational design, we used descriptive and inferential statistics and multivariable regression analysis to estimate the population-level incidence of fever and individual and socio-economic factors associated with treatment-seeking process characteristics. We utilised a detailed publicly available survey of community-level treatment-seeking behaviour (collected in 2017/2018), comprising a representative sample of 2130 rural adults in Thailand (Chiang Rai Province) and Lao PDR (Salavan Province).

RESULTS

Fever was reported by 7.1% of the rural adult population in Chiang Rai (95% CI: 5.1%-9.0%) and 7.5% in Salavan (95% CI: 4.5%-10.5%) during a 2-month recall period. Treatment-seeking patterns varied by socio-economic characteristics like precarious employment. 69.3% (95% CI: 60.8%-77.7%) of fever episodes involved access to formal (public/private) healthcare providers, 11.0% (95% CI: 4.5%-17.5%) involved informal providers, and 24.3% (95% CI: 16.6%-32.1%) took place without either formal or informal healthcare access. Febrile patients had on average 0.39 antibiotic use episodes when accessing formal healthcare settings, compared to 0.05 otherwise (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Treatment-seeking behaviour during fever varies according to population characteristics. Clinical studies would benefit from contextualising quantitative outcomes. Treatment algorithms for non-malarial febrile illnesses should involve outreach to informal healthcare and community settings to support patients in precarious circumstances, and antibiotic resistance interventions should prioritise formal healthcare facilities.

Synthesis and Meta-analysis of 3 Randomized Trials Conducted in Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Uganda Comparing the Effects of Point-of-Care Tests and Diagnostic Algorithms Versus Routine Care on Antibiotic Prescriptions and Clinical Outcomes in Ambulatory Patients <18 Years of Age With Acute Febrile Illness

This meta-analysis included 3 randomized trials conducted in sub-Saharan Africa comparing the effects of point-of-care tests and diagnostic algorithms versus routine care on antibiotic prescriptions and clinical outcomes in ambulatory patients presenting at outpatient facilities with acute uncomplicated febrile illness.

Advancing Access to Diagnostic Tools Essential for Universal Health Coverage and Antimicrobial Resistance Prevention: An Overview of Trials in Sub-Saharan Africa

We introduce the Antimicrobial Resistance Diagnostic Use Accelerator program, and the articles in this Supplement, which cover the program in 3 sub-Saharan Africa countries.

Perspective on the Integration of Diagnostic Algorithms for Fever Management

The AMR Diagnostics Use Accelerator Program was established to address antimicrobial resistance. Here, we bring into broad perspective the findings and missed opportunities of the first phase of the program and look toward the second phase.

Impact of the Introduction of a Package of Diagnostic Tools, Diagnostic Algorithm, and Training and Communication on Outpatient Acute Fever Case Management at 3 Diverse Sites in Uganda: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Increasing trends of antimicrobial resistance are observed around the world, driven in part by excessive use of antimicrobials. Limited access to diagnostics, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, contributes to diagnostic uncertainty, which may promote unnecessary antibiotic use. We investigated whether introducing a package of diagnostic tools, clinical algorithm, and training-and-communication messages could safely reduce antibiotic prescribing compared with current standard-of-care for febrile patients presenting to outpatient clinics in Uganda.

METHODS

This was an open-label, multicenter, 2-arm randomized controlled trial conducted at 3 public health facilities (Aduku, Nagongera, and Kihihi health center IVs) comparing the proportions of antibiotic prescriptions and clinical outcomes for febrile outpatients aged ≥1 year. The intervention arm included a package of point-of-care tests, a diagnostic and treatment algorithm, and training-and-communication messages. Standard-of-care was provided to patients in the control arm.

RESULTS

A total of 2400 patients were enrolled, with 49.5% in the intervention arm. Overall, there was no significant difference in antibiotic prescriptions between the study arms (relative risk [RR]: 1.03; 95% CI: .96-1.11). In the intervention arm, patients with positive malaria test results (313/500 [62.6%] vs 170/473 [35.9%]) had a higher RR of being prescribed antibiotics (1.74; 1.52-2.00), while those with negative malaria results (348/688 [50.6%] vs 376/508 [74.0%]) had a lower RR (.68; .63-.75). There was no significant difference in clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that a diagnostic intervention for management of febrile outpatients did not achieve the desired impact on antibiotic prescribing at 3 diverse and representative health facility sites in Uganda.

Could combined rapid diagnostic testing for malaria and c-reactive protein be helpful for the diagnosis and management of febrile illnesses in children under-5 years of age in rural Burkina Faso?

BACKGROUND

Febrile illnesses are among the most important reasons for medical consultation in sub-Saharan Africa and are frequently treated with antimicrobials due to the unavailability of appropriate diagnostic tools. This practice leads to antimicrobial resistance, with increasing mortality and morbidity as result. One of the few accessible diagnostic tools available in low resource settings is malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) which contributed to reducing the over-prescription of anti-malarials, but cannot guide antibiotic prescriptions. To circumvent this problem, we explored whether combined testing with mRDT and c-reactive protein (CRP) could improve the diagnosis of febrile illnesses and subsequent prescription of antibiotics.

METHODS

Clinical specimens (blood, stool and urine) collected from 396 febrile children (axillary temperature of ≥ 37.5 °C) were analyzed with rapid diagnostic tests (malaria and CRP) and microbiology culture to establish the possible cause of fever. Actual antimicrobial prescriptions given to the children were compared with those that could be given based on combined CRP-malaria testing.

RESULTS

In total, 68.7% (272/396) of malaria cases were diagnosed by mRDT-Pf-HRP-2. CRP test was positive in 84.3% (334/396) of the children, but bacterial infections were confirmed in 12.4% (49/396) of them. A possible cause of fever could not be established in 20.5% (81/396) of cases. Based on the diagnostic practice in place, 265 of the children with a positive mRDT-Pf-HRP-2 received anti-malarial treatment. Furthermore, 89.5% (111/124) of negative mRDT results received antibiotic treatment and 37.1% (46/124) received antimalarial treatment. Of these 124 cases, 80 had positive CRP tests and 44 negative CRP tests. If the results of CRP testing are considered, 44 CRP/mRDT negative children would not get antibiotic treatment, resulting in a 35.5% reduction in antibiotic prescriptions. However, 2 cases with a bacterial infection would be denied appropriate treatment.

CONCLUSION

Combining mRDT-PfHRP2 with CRP testing is particularly useful in children for whom both tests are negative as it results in a reduction of antibiotics prescriptions. However, there is a risk to miss potential severe bacterial infections and a close follow-up of these cases is strongly recommended.

Differences in diagnosis, management, and outcomes of acute febrile illness by health facility level in southern Ethiopia

We assessed the diagnosis, management and outcomes of acute febrile illness in a cohort of febrile children aged under 5 years presenting at one urban and two rural health centres and one tertiary hospital between 11 August 2019 and 01 November 2019. Pneumonia was diagnosed in 104 (30.8%) of 338 children at health centres and 128 (65.0%) of 197 at the hospital (p < 0.001). Malaria was detected in 33 (24.3%) of 136 children at the urban health centre, and in 55 (55.6%) of 99 and 7 (7.4%) of 95 children at the rural health centres compared to 11 (11.6%) of 95 at the hospital. Antibacterials were prescribed to 20 (11.5%) of 174 children without guidelines-specified indications (overprescribing) at health centres and in 7 (33.3%) of 21 children at the hospital (p = 0.013). Antimalarials were overprescribed to 13 (7.0%) of 185 children with negative malaria microscopy at the hospital. The fever resolved by day 7 in 326 (99.7%) of 327 children at health centres compared to 177 (93.2%) of 190 at the hospital (p < 0.001). These results suggest that additional guidance to health workers is needed to optimise the use of antimicrobials across all levels of health facilities.

Adding rapid diagnostic tests to community-based programmes for treating malaria

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends parasitological testing of all suspected malaria cases using malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) or microscopy prior to treatment. Some governments have extended this responsibility to community health workers (CHWs) to reduce malaria morbidity and mortality through prompt and appropriate treatment. This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in 2013.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate community-based management strategies for treating malaria or fever that incorporate both a definitive diagnosis with an mRDT and appropriate antimalarial treatment.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, five other databases, and three trials registers up to 14 September 2021.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included individually randomized trials and cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs), controlled before-after studies, and controlled interrupted time series studies in people living in malaria-endemic areas, comparing programmes that train CHWs and drug shop vendors to perform mRDTs and provide appropriate treatment versus similar programmes that do not use mRDTs, and versus routine health facility care.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. For each dichotomous outcome, we extracted the number of participants with the event and the total number of participants in each group, unless studies presented results at a population level only. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, hospitalizations, and number of people receiving an antimalarial within 24 hours. Secondary outcomes were malaria-specific mortality, severe malaria, outcomes related to antimalarial treatments, antibiotic prescribing to people with a negative microscopy or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) result, parasitaemia, anaemia, and all adverse events.

MAIN RESULTS

We included eight studies from several African countries, Afghanistan, and Myanmar. Staff included CHWs and drug shop vendors.  Community use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests compared to clinical diagnosis Compared to clinical diagnosis, mRDT diagnosis results in reduced prescribing of antimalarials to people who are found to be malaria parasite-negative by microscopy or PCR testing (71 fewer per 100 people, 95% confidence interval (CI) 79 to 51 fewer; risk ratio (RR) 0.17, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.40; 3 cRCTs, 7877 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). This reduction may be greater among CHWs compared to drug shop vendors. People diagnosed by mRDT are more likely to receive appropriate treatment; that is, an antimalarial if they are microscopy- or PCR-positive and no antimalarial if they are microscopy- or PCR-negative (RR 3.04, 95% CI 2.46 to 3.74, 3 cRCTs, 9332 participants; high-certainty evidence). Three studies found that a small percentage of people with a negative mRDT result (as read by the CHW or drug shop vendors at the time of treatment) were nevertheless given an antimalarial: 38/1368 (2.8%), 44/724 (6.1%) and 124/950 (13.1%). Conversely, in two studies, a few mRDT-positive people did not receive an antimalarial (0.5% and 0.3%), and one small cross-over study found that 6/57 (10.5%) people classified as non-malaria in the clinical diagnosis arm received an antimalarial. Use of mRDTs probably increases antibiotic use compared to clinical diagnosis (13 more per 100 people, 95% CI 3 to 29 more; RR 2.02, 95% CI 1.21 to 3.37; 2 cRCTs, 5179 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). We were unable to demonstrate any effect on mortality. Community use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests compared to health facility care Results were insufficient to reach any conclusion.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Use of mRDTs by CHWs and drug shop vendors compared to clinical diagnosis reduces prescribing of antimalarials to people without malaria. Deaths were uncommon in both groups. Antibiotic prescribing was higher in those with a negative mRDT than in those with a negative clinical diagnosis.

Patterns and contextual determinants of antibiotic prescribing for febrile under-five outpatients at primary and secondary healthcare facilities in Bugisu, Eastern Uganda

Objectives

To describe patterns and contextual determinants of antibiotic prescribing for febrile under-five outpatients at primary and secondary healthcare facilities across Bugisu, Eastern Uganda.

Methods

We surveyed 37 public and private-not-for-profit healthcare facilities and conducted a retrospective review of antimicrobial prescribing patterns among febrile under-five outpatients (with a focus on antibiotics) in 2019–20, based on outpatient registers. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to identify determinants of antibiotic prescribing at patient- and healthcare facility-levels.

Results

Antibiotics were prescribed for 62.2% of 3471 febrile under-five outpatients. There were a total of 2478 antibiotic prescriptions of 22 antibiotic types: amoxicillin (52.2%), co-trimoxazole (14.7%), metronidazole (6.9%), gentamicin (5.7%), ceftriaxone (5.3%), ampicillin/cloxacillin (3.6%), penicillin (3.1%), and others (8.6%). Acute upper respiratory tract infection (AURTI) was the commonest single indication for antibiotic prescribing, with 76.3% of children having AURTI as their only documented diagnosis receiving antibiotic prescriptions. Only 9.2% of children aged 2–59 months with non-severe pneumonia received antibiotic prescriptions in line with national guidelines. Higher health centre levels, and private-not-for-profit ownership (adjusted OR, 4.30; 95% CI, 1.91–9.72) were significant contextual determinants of antibiotic prescribing.

Conclusions

We demonstrated a high antibiotic prescribing prevalence among febrile under-five outpatients in Bugisu, Eastern Uganda, including prescriptions for co-trimoxazole and ampicillin/cloxacillin (which are not indicated in the management of the common causes of under-five febrile illness in Uganda). Study findings may be linked to limited diagnostic capacity and inadequate antibiotic availability, which require prioritization in interventions aimed at improving rational antibiotic prescribing among febrile under-five outpatients.

Overdiagnosis and overuse of diagnostic and screening tests in low-income and middle-income countries: a scoping review

Objective

Overdiagnosis and overuse of healthcare services harm individuals, take resources that could be used to address underuse, and threaten the sustainability of health systems. These problems are attracting increasing attention in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Unaware of any review of relevant evidence, we conducted a scoping review of the evidence around overdiagnosis and overuse of diagnostic and screening tests in LMICs.

Design

Scoping review.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, Global Index Medicus for relevant studies published until 24 May 2021, with no restrictions on date or language. We categorised included studies by major focus (overdiagnosis, overuse of tests, or both) and main themes (presence or estimates of extent; drivers; consequences and solutions).

Results

We identified 2763 unique records and included 162 articles reporting on 154 studies across 55 countries, involving over 2.8 million participants and/or requests for tests. Almost half the studies focused on overdiagnosis (70; 45.5%), one-third on overuse of tests (61; 39.6%) and one-fifth on both (23; 14.9%). Common overdiagnosed conditions included malaria (61; 39.6%) and thyroid cancer (25; 16.2%), estimated to be >70% in China. Overused tests included imaging (n=25 studies) such as CT and MRI; laboratory investigations (n=18) such as serological tests and tumour markers; and procedures (n=14) such as colonoscopy. Drivers included fear of conflict with patients and expanding disease definitions. Common consequences included unnecessary treatments such as antimalarials, and wasted resources, with costs of malaria overdiagnosis estimated at US$86 million in Sudan in 1 year alone. Only 9% of studies discussed solutions, which included addressing inappropriately lowered diagnostic thresholds and reforming test-ordering processes.

Conclusions

Overdiagnosis and overuse of tests are widespread in LMICs and generate significant harm and waste. Better understanding of the problems and robust evaluation of solutions is needed, informed by a new global alliance of researchers and policy-makers.

Community-Based Malaria Testing Reduces Polypharmacy in a Population-Based Survey of Febrile Illness in Western Kenya

Objective: The objective was to describe the relationship between the location of care, the malaria test result, and the type of medicine consumed for the fever, and to determine whether community-based access to malaria testing reduced polypharmacy.

Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a cluster-randomized trial of an intervention designed to increase diagnostic testing and targeting of Artemesinin Combined Therapies (ACTs). Data collected at baseline, 12, and 18 months were analyzed to determine the impact of diagnostic testing on drug consumption patterns among febrile individuals.

Results: Of the 5,756 participants analyzed, 60.1% were female, 42% were aged 5–17 years, and 58.1% sought care for fever in a retail outlet. Consumption of both ACT and antibiotics was 22.1% (n = 443/2008) at baseline. At endline, dual consumption had declined to 16.6%. There was reduced antibiotic consumption among those testing positive for malaria (39.5%–26.5%) and those testing negative (63.4%–55.1%), accompanied by a substantial decline in ACT use among malaria-negative participants.

Conclusion: Diagnostic testing for malaria reduces dual consumption of ACTs and antibiotics, especially among those testing outside the formal healthcare sector.

Antimicrobial Stewardship in Tropical Infectious Diseases: Focusing on Dengue and Malaria

Acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) is the presenting symptom of various tropical and infectious diseases. Viral infection is generally the most common cause of AUFI, accounting for 8–11.8% of cases; thus, antibiotics might be unnecessary. Dengue and malaria are common tropical infectious diseases requiring effective supportive treatment and antimalarial agents, respectively. The uncertainty of early diagnosis results in widespread empirical antimicrobial treatment in high -income as well as in low-and middle-income countries. Although rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have been shown to limit antibiotic prescriptions in dengue and malaria, we observed a wide range of antibiotic prescriptions for 13–92.7% of cases in previous literature, particularly in RDT-negative malaria cases. Given several RDT limitations, antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) appears to be an effective strategy for controlling unnecessary antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) prevention. This program should be endorsed by a multidisciplinary team in tropical diseases to control collateral damage of inappropriate antimicrobial use. Empirical antibiotic treatment should be administered based on clinical judgement, microbiological evidence, and local epidemiological data. Rapid termination of antibiotic therapy, including disease control or elimination, is the mainstay of AMS in tropical diseases. Local and international sectors should implement an AMS programme to reduce AMR in the Tropics.

Clinical management and outcomes of acute febrile illness in children attending a tertiary hospital in southern Ethiopia

Background

The management of febrile illnesses is challenging in settings where diagnostic laboratory facilities are limited, and there are few published longitudinal data on children presenting with fever in such settings. We have previously conducted the first comprehensive study of infectious aetiologies of febrile children presenting to a tertiary care facility in Ethiopia. We now report on clinicians’ prescribing adherence with guidelines and outcomes of management in this cohort.

Methods

We consecutively enrolled febrile children aged 2 months and under 13 years, who were then managed by clinicians based on presentation and available laboratory and radiologic findings on day of enrolment. We prospectively collected outcome data on days 7 and 14, and retrospectively evaluated prescribing adherence with national clinical management guidelines.

Results

Of 433 children enrolled, the most common presenting syndromes were pneumonia and acute diarrhoea, diagnosed in 177 (40.9%) and 82 (18.9%), respectively. Antibacterial agents were prescribed to 360 (84.7%) of 425 children, including 36 (34.0%) of 106 children without an initial indication for antibacterials according to guidelines. Antimalarial drugs were prescribed to 47 (11.1%) of 425 children, including 30 (7.3%) of 411 children with negative malaria microscopy. Fever had resolved in 357 (89.7%) of 398 children assessed at day 7, and in-hospital death within 7 days occurred in 9 (5.9%) of 153 admitted patients. Among children with pneumonia, independent predictors of persisting fever or death by 7 days were young age and underweight for age. Antibacterial prescribing in the absence of a guideline-specified indication (overprescribing) was more likely among infants and those without tachypnea, while overprescribing antimalarials was associated with older age, anaemia, absence of cough, and higher fevers.

Conclusion

Our study underscores the need for improving diagnostic support to properly guide management decisions and enhance adherence by clinicians to treatment guidelines.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07424-0.

Two-test algorithms for infectious disease diagnosis: Implications for COVID-19

Diagnostic assays for various infectious diseases, including COVID-19, have been challenged for their utility as standalone point-of-care diagnostic tests due to suboptimal accuracy, complexity, high cost or long turnaround times for results. It is therefore critical to optimise their use to meet the needs of users. We used a simulation approach to estimate diagnostic outcomes, number of tests required and average turnaround time of using two-test algorithms compared with singular testing; the two tests were reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and an antigen-based rapid diagnostic test (Ag-RDT). A web-based application of the model was developed to visualise and compare diagnostic outcomes for different disease prevalence and test performance characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). We tested the model using hypothetical prevalence data for COVID-19, representing low- and high-prevalence contexts and performance characteristics of RT-PCR and Ag-RDTs. The two-test algorithm when RT-PCR was applied to samples negative by Ag-RDT predicted gains in sensitivity of 27% and 7%, respectively, compared with Ag-RDT and RT-PCR alone. Similarly, when RT-PCR was applied to samples positive by Ag-RDT, specificity gains of 2.9% and 1.9%, respectively, were predicted. The algorithm using Ag-RDT followed by RT-PCR as a confirmatory test for positive patients limited the requirement of RT-PCR testing resources to 16,400 and 3,034 tests when testing a population of 100,000 with an infection prevalence of 20% and 0.05%, respectively. A two-test algorithm comprising a rapid screening test followed by confirmatory laboratory testing can reduce false positive rate, produce rapid results and conserve laboratory resources, but can lead to large number of missed cases in high prevalence setting. The web application of the model can identify the best testing strategies, tailored to specific use cases and we also present some examples how it was used as part of the Access to Covid-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator Diagnostics Pillar.

Defining the burden of febrile illness in rural South and Southeast Asia: an open letter to announce the launch of the Rural Febrile Illness project

In rural areas of South and Southeast Asia malaria is declining but febrile illnesses still account for substantial morbidity and mortality. Village health workers (VHWs) are often the first point of contact with the formal health system, and for patients with febrile illnesses they can provide early diagnosis and treatment of malaria. However, for the majority of febrile patients, VHWs lack the training, support and resources to provide further care. Consequently, treatable bacterial illnesses are missed, antibiotics are overused and poorly targeted, and patient attendance wanes along with declining malaria.

This Open Letter announces the start of a new initiative, the Rural Febrile Illness (RFI) project, the first in a series of projects to be implemented as part of the South and Southeast Asian Community-based Trials Network (SEACTN) research programme. This multi-country, multi-site project will run in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Myanmar. It will define the epidemiological baseline of febrile illness in nine remote and underserved areas of Asia where malaria endemicity is declining and access to health services is limited.

The RFI project aims to determine the incidence, causes and outcomes of febrile illness; understand the opportunities, barriers and appetite for adjustment of the role of VHWs to include management of non-malarial febrile illnesses; and establish a network of community healthcare providers and facilities capable of implementing interventions designed to triage, diagnose and treat patients presenting with febrile illnesses within these communities in the future.

Development and Validation of Manually Modified and Supervised Machine Learning Clinical Assessment Algorithms for Malaria in Nigerian Children

It is currently estimated that 67% of malaria deaths occur in children under-five years (WHO, 2020). To improve the identification of children at clinical risk for malaria, the WHO developed community (iCCM) and clinic-based (IMCI) protocols for frontline health workers using paper-based forms or digital mobile health (mHealth) platforms. To investigate improving the accuracy of these point-of-care clinical risk assessment protocols for malaria in febrile children, we embedded a malaria rapid diagnostic test (mRDT) workflow into THINKMD’s (IMCI) mHealth clinical risk assessment platform. This allowed us to perform a comparative analysis of THINKMD-generated malaria risk assessments with mRDT truth data to guide modification of THINKMD algorithms, as well as develop new supervised machine learning (ML) malaria risk algorithms. We utilized paired clinical data and malaria risk assessments acquired from over 555 children presenting to five health clinics in Kano, Nigeria to train ML algorithms to identify malaria cases using symptom and location data, as well as confirmatory mRDT results. Supervised ML random forest algorithms were generated using 80% of our field-based data as the ML training set and 20% to test our new ML logic. New ML-based malaria algorithms showed an increased sensitivity and specificity of 60 and 79%, and PPV and NPV of 76 and 65%, respectively over THINKD initial IMCI-based algorithms. These results demonstrate that combining mRDT “truth” data with digital mHealth platform clinical assessments and clinical data can improve identification of children with malaria/non-malaria attributable febrile illnesses.

Trends in fever case management for febrile inpatients in a low malaria incidence setting of Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

In 2010, WHO published guidelines emphasising parasitological confirmation of malaria before treatment. We present data on changes in fever case management in a low malaria transmission setting of northern Tanzania after 2010.

METHODS

We compared diagnoses, treatments and outcomes from two hospital-based prospective cohort studies, Cohort 1 (2011-2014) and Cohort 2 (2016-2019), that enrolled febrile children and adults. All participants underwent quality-assured malaria blood smear-microscopy. Participants who were malaria smear-microscopy negative but received a diagnosis of malaria or received an antimalarial were categorised as malaria over-diagnosis and over-treatment, respectively.

RESULTS

We analysed data from 2098 participants. The median (IQR) age was 27 (3-43) years and 1047 (50.0%) were female. Malaria was detected in 23 (2.3%) participants in Cohort 1 and 42 (3.8%) in Cohort 2 (p = 0.059). Malaria over-diagnosis occurred in 334 (35.0%) participants in Cohort 1 and 190 (17.7%) in Cohort 2 (p < 0.001). Malaria over-treatment occurred in 528 (55.1%) participants in Cohort 1 and 196 (18.3%) in Cohort 2 (p < 0.001). There were 30 (3.1%) deaths in Cohort 1 and 60 (5.4%) in Cohort 2 (p = 0.007). All deaths occurred among smear-negative participants.

CONCLUSION

We observed a substantial decline in malaria over-diagnosis and over-treatment among febrile inpatients in northern Tanzania between two time periods after 2010. Despite changes, some smear-negative participants were still diagnosed and treated for malaria. Our results highlight the need for continued monitoring of fever case management across different malaria epidemiological settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

Marked reduction in antibiotic usage following intensive malaria control in a cohort of Ugandan children

BACKGROUND

Intensive malaria control may have additional benefits beyond reducing the incidence of symptomatic malaria. We compared antibiotic treatment of children before and after the implementation of highly effective malaria control interventions in Tororo, a historically high transmission area of Uganda.

METHODS

Two successive cohorts of children, aged 0.5 to 10 years, were followed from September 2011 to October 2019 in a dedicated study clinic. Universal distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets was conducted in 2013 and 2017. Sustained indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) was initiated in December 2014. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to compare the incidence of antimalarial and antibiotic treatments before and after vector control measures were implemented.

RESULTS

Comparing the period prior to the implementation of IRS to the period after IRS had been sustained for 4-5 years, the adjusted incidence of malaria treatments decreased from 2.68 to 0.05 per person-year (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.02, 95% CI 0.01-0.03, p < 0.001), and the adjusted incidence of antibiotic treatments decreased from 4.14 to 1.26 per person-year (IRR = 0.30, 95% CI 0.27-0.34, p < 0.001). The reduction in antibiotic usage was primarily associated with fewer episodes of symptomatic malaria and fewer episodes of fever with sub-microscopic parasitemia, both of which were frequently treated with antibiotics.

CONCLUSIONS

In a historically high transmission setting, the implementation of highly effective vector control interventions was followed by a marked reduction in antibiotic treatment of children. This added benefit of malaria control could have important implications for antibiotic prescribing practices, efforts to curtail antimicrobial resistance, and health system costs.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care C-Reactive Protein test compared to current clinical practice as an intervention to improve antibiotic prescription in malaria-negative patients in Afghanistan

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health problem requiring a reduction in inappropriate antibiotic prescribing. Point-of-Care C-Reactive Protein (POCCRP) tests could distinguish between bacterial and non-bacterial causes of fever in malaria-negative patients and thus reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing. However, the cost-effectiveness of POCCRP testing is unclear in low-income settings.

METHODS

A decision tree model was used to estimate cost-effectiveness of POCCRP versus current clinical practice at primary healthcare facilities in Afghanistan. Data were analysed from healthcare delivery and societal perspectives. Costs were reported in 2019 USD. Effectiveness was measured as correctly treated febrile malaria-negative patient. Cost, effectiveness and diagnostic accuracy parameters were obtained from primary data from a cost-effectiveness study on malaria rapid diagnostic tests in Afghanistan and supplemented with POCCRP-specific data sourced from the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) reported the additional cost per additional correctly treated febrile malaria-negative patient over a 28-day time horizon. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined the impact of uncertainty of parameter inputs. Scenario analysis included economic cost of AMR per antibiotic prescription.

RESULTS

The model predicts that POCCRP intervention would result in 137 fewer antibiotic prescriptions (6%) with a 12% reduction (279 prescriptions) in inappropriate prescriptions compared to current clinical practice. ICERs were $14.33 (healthcare delivery), $11.40 (societal), and $9.78 (scenario analysis) per additional correctly treated case.

CONCLUSIONS

POCCRP tests could improve antibiotic prescribing among malaria-negative patients in Afghanistan. Cost-effectiveness depends in part on willingness to pay for reductions in inappropriate antibiotic prescribing that will only have modest impact on immediate clinical outcomes but may have long-term benefits in reducing overuse of antibiotics. A reduction in the overuse of antibiotics is needed and POCCRP tests may add to other interventions in achieving this aim. Assessment of willingness to pay among policy makers and donors and undertaking operational trials will help determine cost-effectiveness and assist decision making.

A Systematic Review of Clinical Prediction Rules to Predict Hospitalisation in Children with Lower Respiratory Infection in Primary Care and their Validation in a New Cohort

Background: Our goal was to identify existing clinical prediction rules for predicting hospitalisation due to lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in children in primary care, guiding antibiotic therapy. A validation of these rules was then performed in a novel cohort of children presenting to primary care in Malawi with World Health Organisation clinically defined pneumonia. Methods: MEDLINE & EMBASE databases were searched for studies on the development, validation and clinical impact of clinical prediction models for hospitalisation in children with lower respiratory tract infection between January 1^st1946-June 30^th 2021. Two reviewers screened all abstracts and titles independently. The study was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews & Meta-Analyses guidelines. The BIOTOPE cohort (BIOmarkers TO diagnose PnEumonia) recruited children aged 2-59 months with WHO-defined pneumonia from two primary care facilities in Mzuzu, Malawi. Validation of identified rules was undertaken in this cohort. Findings: 1023 abstracts were identified. Following the removal of duplicates, a review of 989 abstracts was conducted leading to the identification of one eligible model. The CHARMS checklist for prediction modelling studies was utilized for evaluation. The area under the curve (AUC) of the STARWAVe rule for hospitalisation in BIOTOPE was found to be 0.80 (95% C.I of 0.75-0.85). The AUC of STARWAVe for a confirmed diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia was 0.39 (95% C.I 0.25-0.54). Interpretation: This review highlights the lack of clinical prediction rules in this area. The STARWAVe rule identified was useful in predicting hospitalisation from bacterial infection as defined. However, in the absence of a gold standard indicator for bacterial LRTI, this is a reasonable surrogate and could lead to reductions in antibiotic prescription rates, should clinical impact studies prove its utility. Further work to determine the clinical impact of STARWAVe and to identify diagnostic tests for bacterial LRTI in primary care is required.

Rethinking the economic costs of hospitalization for malaria: accounting for the comorbidities of malaria patients in western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Malaria causes significant mortality and morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa, especially among children under five years of age and places a huge economic burden on individuals and health systems. While this burden has been assessed previously, few studies have explored how malaria comorbidities affect inpatient costs. This study in a malaria endemic area in Western Kenya, assessed the total treatment costs per malaria episode including comorbidities in children and adults.

METHODS

Total economic costs of malaria hospitalizations were calculated from a health system and societal perspective. Patient-level data were collected from patients admitted with a malaria diagnosis to a county-level hospital between June 2016 and May 2017. All treatment documented in medical records were included as health system costs. Patient and household costs included direct medical and non-medical expenses, and indirect costs due to productivity losses.

RESULTS

Of the 746 patients admitted with a malaria diagnosis, 64% were female and 36% were male. The mean age was 14 years (median 7 years). The mean length of stay was three days. The mean health system cost per patient was Kenyan Shilling (KSh) 4288 (USD 42.0) (95% confidence interval (CI) 95% CI KSh 4046-4531). The total household cost per patient was KSh 1676 (USD 16.4) (95% CI KSh 1488-1864) and consisted of: KSh 161 (USD1.6) medical costs; KSh 728 (USD 7.1) non-medical costs; and KSh 787 (USD 7.7) indirect costs. The total societal cost (health system and household costs) per patient was KSh 5964 (USD 58.4) (95% CI KSh 5534-6394). Almost a quarter of patients (24%) had a reported comorbidity. The most common malaria comorbidities were chest infections, diarrhoea, and anaemia. The inclusion of comorbidities compared to patients with-out comorbidities led to a 46% increase in societal costs (health system costs increased by 43% and patient and household costs increased by 54%).

CONCLUSIONS

The economic burden of malaria is increased by comorbidities which are associated with longer hospital stays and higher medical costs to patients and the health system. Understanding the full economic burden of malaria is critical if future malaria control interventions are to protect access to care, especially by the poor.

The good and the bad: using C reactive protein to distinguish bacterial from non-bacterial infection among febrile patients in low-resource settings

C reactive protein (CRP), a marker for the presence of an inflammatory process, is the most extensively studied marker for distinguishing bacterial from non-bacterial infections in febrile patients. A point-of-care test for bacterial infections would be of particular use in low-resource settings where other laboratory diagnostics are not always available, antimicrobial resistance rates are high and bacterial infections such as pneumonia are a leading cause of death. This document summarises evidence on CRP testing for bacterial infections in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). With a push for universal health coverage and prevention of antimicrobial resistance, it is important to understand if CRP might be able to do the job. The use of CRP polarised the global health community and the aim of this document is to summarise the ‘good and the bad’ of CRP in multiple settings in LMICs. In brief, the literature that was reviewed suggests that CRP testing may be beneficial in low-resource settings to improve rational antibiotic use for febrile patients, but the positive predictive value is insufficient to allow it to be used alone as a single tool. CRP testing may be best used as part of a panel of diagnostic tests and algorithms. Further studies in low-resource settings, particularly with regard to impact on antibiotic prescribing and cost-effectiveness of CRP testing, are warranted.

Rapid diagnostic tests for common infection syndromes: less haste, more speed

Rapid diagnostic tests, which accurately distinguish bacterial from viral infections, are being heralded as the solution to antibiotic overuse, which is a key driver of antimicrobial resistance. We have concerns that this approach is oversimplistic. Rapid diagnostic tests are complex interventions, with clinical context, patient flow, access and timing affecting their impact. There is little robust evidence that they reduce antibiotic prescribing in real-world settings. We suggest that prior to introducing these costly tests, emphasis should be placed on optimizing the implementation of efficient evidence-based antimicrobial stewardship interventions, such as increasing the use of proven automated clinical infection syndrome prediction tools by clinicians, supporting patients to self-care by providing them with high-quality safety-netting resources, providing front-line clinicians with individual prescribing data to facilitate peer benchmarking and setting specific and purposeful antibiotic prescribing targets to improve the quality of antimicrobial prescribing. The stakes are high and time is running out; let's start by getting the basics right.

Defining the burden of febrile illness in rural South and Southeast Asia: an open letter to announce the launch of the Rural Febrile Illness project

In rural areas of South and Southeast Asia malaria is declining but febrile illnesses still account for substantial morbidity and mortality. Village health workers (VHWs) are often the first point of contact with the formal health system, and for patients with febrile illnesses they can provide early diagnosis and treatment of malaria. However, for the majority of febrile patients, VHWs lack the training, support and resources to provide further care. Consequently, treatable bacterial illnesses are missed, antibiotics are overused and poorly targeted, and patient attendance wanes along with declining malaria. This Open Letter announces the start of a new initiative, the Rural Febrile Illness (RFI) project, the first in a series of projects to be implemented as part of the South and Southeast Asian Community-based Trials Network (SEACTN) research programme. This multi-country, multi-site project will begin in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar and will define the epidemiological baseline of febrile illness in five remote and underserved areas of Asia where malaria endemicity is declining and access to health services is limited. The RFI project aims to determine the incidence, causes and outcomes of febrile illness; understand the opportunities, barriers and appetite for adjustment of the role of VHWs to include management of non-malarial febrile illnesses; and establish a network of community healthcare providers and facilities capable of implementing interventions designed to triage, diagnose and treat patients presenting with febrile illnesses within these communities in the future.

Value of C-reactive protein in differentiating viral from bacterial aetiologies in patients with non-malaria acute undifferentiated fever in tropical areas: a meta-analysis and individual patient data study

C-reactive protein (CRP) is used to discriminate common bacterial and viral infections, but its utility in tropical settings remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis of studies performed in Asia and Africa. First, mean CRP levels for specific tropical infections were calculated. Thereafter, individual patient data (IPD) from patients with non-malarial undifferentiated fever (NMUF) who were tested for viral and bacterial pathogens were analysed, calculating separate cut-off values and their performance in classifying viral or bacterial disease. Mean CRP levels of 7307 patients from 13 countries were dengue 12.0 mg/l (standard error [SE] 2.7), chikungunya 41.0 mg/l (SE 19.5), influenza 15.9 mg/l (SE 6.3), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever 9.7 mg/l (SE 4.7), Salmonella 61.9 mg/l (SE 5.4), Rickettsia 61.3 mg/l (SE 8.8), Coxiella burnetii 98.7 mg/l (SE 44.0) and Leptospira infections 113.8 mg/l (SE 23.1). IPD analysis of 1059 NMUF patients ≥5 y of age showed CRP <10 mg/l had 52% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] 48 to 56) and 95% specificity (95% CI 93 to 97) to detect viral infections. CRP >40 mg/l had 74% sensitivity (95% CI 70 to 77) and 84% specificity (95% CI 81 to 87) to identify bacterial infections. Compared with routine care, the relative risk for incorrect classification was 0.64 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.75) and the number needed to test for one extra correctly classified case was 8 (95% CI 6 to 12). A two cut-off value CRP test may help clinicians to discriminate viral and bacterial aetiologies of NMUF in tropical areas.

Distinguishing bacterial versus non-bacterial causes of febrile illness - A systematic review of host biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Acute febrile illnesses (AFIs) represent a major disease burden globally; however, the paucity of reliable, rapid point-of-care testing makes their diagnosis difficult. A simple tool for distinguishing bacterial versus non-bacterial infections would radically improve patient management and reduce indiscriminate antibiotic use. Diagnostic tests based on host biomarkers can play an important role here, and a target product profile (TPP) was developed to guide development.

OBJECTIVES

To qualitatively evaluate host biomarkers that can distinguish bacterial from non-bacterial causes of AFI.

DATA SOURCES

The PubMed database was systematically searched for relevant studies published between 2015 and 2019.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies comparing diagnostic performances of host biomarkers in patients with bacterial versus non-bacterial infections were included.

PARTICIPANTS

Studies involving human participants and/or human samples were included.

METHODS

We collected information following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. A risk of bias assessment was performed, based on a modified QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Score 2).

RESULTS

We identified 1107 publications. Following screening, 55 publications were included, with 265 biomarker entries. Entries mostly comprised protein biomarkers (58.9%), followed by haematological, RNA, and metabolite biomarkers (15.5%, 8.7%, 12.5%). Sensitivity/specificity was reported for 45.7% of biomarker entries. We assessed a high overall risk of bias for most entries (75.8%). In studies with low/medium risk of bias, four biomarker entries tested in blood samples had sensitivity/specificity of more than 0.90/0.80. Only 12 additional biomarker entries were identified with sensitivity/specificity of more than 0.65/0.65.

CONCLUSIONS

Most recently assessed biomarkers represent well-known biomarkers, e.g. C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. Some protein biomarkers with the highest reported performances include a combined biomarker signature (CRP, IP-10, and TRAIL) and human neutrophil lipocalin (HNL). Few new biomarkers are in the pipeline; however, some RNA signatures show promise. Further high-quality studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Extensive Antibiotic and Antimalarial Prescription Rate among Children with Acute Febrile Diseases in the Lake Victoria Region, Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

Acute mosquito-borne febrile diseases pose a threat to children in the Sub-Saharan-Africa with ∼272 000 children dying worldwide from malaria in 2018. Although the awareness for malaria in this area has increased due to improved health education, the apparent decline of actual malaria cases has not affected clinical practice significantly. This study collected clinical and epidemiologic data of children presenting with acute febrile diseases in order delineate their diagnostic and therapeutic management.

METHODS

A hospital-based cross-sectional clinical study was conducted at the Sekou Toure Regional Referral Hospital in Tanzania. Children between 1 month and 12 years of age with an axillary temperature ≥ 37.5°C were recruited from August 2016 to December 2016. Children received full clinical examination. In addition, file data about diagnostics and treatment were collected and malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) were performed. Confirmatory malaria polymerase chain reaction was performed from dry blood spots.

RESULTS

From 1381 children presented in the pediatric outpatient department, 133 met the inclusion criteria. Out of 133 febrile children, 10.5% were malaria positive. Treatment data indicate the prescription of antimalarials in 35.3% and antibiotics in 63.9% of the children with an overlap of 24.1% receiving both. Despite a negative mRDT, 36 patients received antimalarials.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study confirm a significant decline of malaria cases in the Lake Victoria region. The discrepancy between the valuable results provided by mRDTs and the high prescription rates of antibiotics and antimalarials call for an enforced diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm.

LAY SUMMARY

The aim of the study was to take a closer look at reported cases of febrile diseases in the Lake Victoria region and assess the relationship between clinical as well as diagnostic findings and the resulting therapeutic concept. Based on these findings the prescription rate of antimalarial and antibiotic drugs was analyzed. The results showed an overall high prescription rate of antimalarials and antibiotics in both diagnosed malaria cases and cases with diagnosed bacterial infections.Not only with regards to the possible side effects of these medications but also keeping in mind the apparent misuse of resources this practice poses a serious burden to the health care system in this low resource country.

Primary Care Case Management of Febrile Children: Insights From the ePOCT Routine Care Cohort in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Aim: To provide insight in the primary health care (PHC) case management of febrile children under-five in Dar es Salaam, and to identify areas for improving quality of care. Methods: We used data from the routine care arm of the ePOCT trial, including children aged 2-59 months who presented with an acute febrile illness to two health centers in Dar es Salaam (2014-2016). The presenting complaint, anthropometrics, vital signs, test results, final diagnosis, and treatment were prospectively collected in all children. We used descriptive statistics to analyze the frequencies of diagnoses, adherence to diagnostics, and prescribed treatments. Results: We included 547 children (47% male, median age 14 months). Most diagnoses were viral: upper respiratory tract infection (60%) and/or gastro-enteritis (18%). Vital signs and anthropometric measurements taken by research staff and urinary testing failed to influence treatment decisions. In total, 518/547 (95%) children received antibiotics, while 119/547 (22%) had an indication for antibiotics based on local guidelines. Antibiotic dosing was frequently out of range. Non-recommended treatments were common (29%), most often cough syrup and vitamins. Conclusion: Our study points to challenges in using diagnostic test results, concerns regarding quality of antibiotic prescriptions, and frequent use of non-evidence-based complementary medicines in PHC in Tanzania. Larger studies on diagnostic and treatments processes in PHC in Tanzania are needed to inform effective solutions to support PHC workers in case management of children.

Management of uncomplicated malaria among children under five years at public and private sector facilities in Mali

Background

Prompt and effective malaria diagnosis and treatment is a cornerstone of malaria control. Case management guidelines recommend confirmatory testing of suspected malaria cases, then prescription of specific drugs for uncomplicated malaria and for severe malaria. This study aims to describe case management practices for children aged 1–59 months seeking treatment with current or recent fever from public and private, rural and urban health providers in Mali.

Methods

Data were collected at sites in Sikasso Region and Bamako. Health workers recorded key information from the consultation including malaria diagnostic testing and result, their final diagnosis, and all drugs prescribed. Children with signs of severe diseases were ineligible. Consultations were not independently observed. Appropriate case management was defined as both 1) tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic test or microscopy, and 2) receiving artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) and no other antimalarials if test-positive, or receiving no antimalarials if test-negative.

Results

Of 1602 participating children, 23.7% were appropriately managed, ranging from 5.3% at public rural facilities to 48.4% at community health worker sites. The most common reason for ‘inappropriate’ management was lack of malaria diagnostic testing (50.4% of children). Among children with confirmed malaria, 50.8% received a non-ACT antimalarial (commonly artesunate injection or artemether), either alone or in combination with ACT. Of 215 test-negative children, 44.2% received an antimalarial drug, most commonly ACT. Prescription of multiple drugs was common: 21.7% of all children received more than one type of antimalarial, while 51.9% received an antibiotic and antimalarial. Inappropriate case management increased in children with increasing axillary temperatures and those seeking care over weekends.

Conclusions

Multiple limitations in management of febrile children under five were identified, including inconsistent use of confirmatory testing and apparent use of severe malaria drugs for uncomplicated malaria. While we cannot confirm the reasons for these shortcomings, there is a need to address the high use of non-ACT antimalarials in this context; to minimize potential for drug resistance, reduce unnecessary expense, and preserve life-saving treatment for severe malaria cases. These findings highlight the challenge of managing febrile illness in young children in a high transmission setting.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-020-09873-1.

Prioritising pathogens for the management of severe febrile patients to improve clinical care in low- and middle-income countries

Background

Severe febrile illness without a known source (SFWS) is a challenge for clinicians when deciding how to manage a patient, particularly given the wide spectrum of potential aetiologies that contribute to fever. These infections are difficult to distinguish clinically, and accurate diagnosis requires a plethora of diagnostics including blood cultures, imaging techniques, molecular or serological tests, and more. When laboratory services are available, a limited test menu hinders clinical decision-making and antimicrobial stewardship, leading to empiric treatment and suboptimal patient outcomes. To specifically address SFWS, this work aimed to identify priority pathogens for a globally applicable panel for fever causing pathogens.

Method

A pragmatic two-pronged approach combining currently available scientific data in an analytical hierarchy process and systematically gathered expert input, was designed to address the lack of comprehensive global aetiology data. The expert re-ranked list was then further adapted for a specific use case to focus on community acquired infections in whole blood specimens. The resulting list was further analysed to address different geographical regions (Asia, Africa, and Latin America), and Cohen kappa scores of agreement were calculated.

Results

The expert ranked prioritized pathogen list generated as part of this two-pronged approach included typhoidal Salmonella, Plasmodium species and Mycobacterium tuberculosis as the top 3 pathogens. This pathogen list was then further adapted for the SFWS use case to develop a final pathogen list to inform product development. Subsequent analysis comparing the relevance of the SFWS pathogen list to multiple populations and geographical regions showed that the SFWS prioritized list had considerable utility across Africa and Asia, but less so for Latin America. In addition, the list showed high levels of agreement across different patient sub-populations, but lower relevance for neonates and symptomatic HIV patients.

Conclusion

This work highlighted once again the challenges of prioritising in global health, but it also shows that taking a two-pronged approach, combining available prevalence data with expert input, can result in a broadly applicable priority list. This comprehensive utility is particularly important in the context of product development, where a sufficient market size is essential to achieve a sustainable commercialized diagnostic product to address SFWS.

Bacterial versus non-bacterial infections: a methodology to support use-case-driven product development of diagnostics

Acute febrile illness (AFI) is one of the most common reasons for seeking medical care in low-income and middle-income countries. Bacterial infections account for a relatively small proportion of AFIs; however, in the absence of a simple diagnostic test to guide clinical decisions, healthcare professionals often presume that a non-malarial febrile illness is bacterial in origin, potentially resulting in inappropriate antibiotic use. An accurate differential diagnostic tool for AFIs is thus essential, to both limit antibiotic use to bacterial infections and address the antimicrobial resistance crisis that is emerging globally, without resorting to multiple or complex pathogen-specific assays. The Biomarker for Fever-Diagnostic (BFF-Dx) study is one of the largest fever biomarker studies ever undertaken. We collected samples and classified disease aetiology in more than 1900 individuals, distributed among enrolment centres in three countries on two continents. Identical protocols were followed at each study site, and the same analyses were conducted in each setting, enabling like-with-like comparisons to be made among the large sample set generated. The BFF-Dx methodology can act as a model for other researchers, facilitating wider utility of the work in the future. The established sample collection is now accessible to researchers and companies and will facilitate the development of future fever-related diagnostic tests. Here, we outline the methodology used to determine the sample populations and to differentiate bacterial versus non-bacterial AFIs. Future publications will set out in more detail the study’s demographics, the causes of fever identified and the performance of selected biomarkers.

Non-malarial febrile illness: a systematic review of published aetiological studies and case reports from Africa, 1980-2015

BACKGROUND

The availability of reliable point-of-care tests for malaria has heralded a paradigm shift in the management of febrile illnesses away from presumptive antimalarial therapy. In the absence of a definitive diagnosis, health care providers are more likely to prescribe empirical antimicrobials to those who test negative for malaria. To improve management and guide further test development, better understanding is needed of the true causative agents and their geographic variability.

METHODS

A systematic review of published literature was undertaken to characterise the spectrum of pathogens causing non-malaria febrile illness in Africa (1980-2015). Literature searches were conducted in English and French languages in six databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health (CABI), WHO Global Health Library, PASCAL, and Bulletin de la Société Française de Parasitologie (BDSP). Selection criteria included reporting on an infection or infections with a confirmed diagnosis, defined as pathogens detected in or cultured from samples from normally sterile sites, or serological evidence of current or past infection. A number of published articles (rather than incidence or prevalence) reporting a given pathogen were presented.

RESULTS

A total of 16,523 records from 48 African countries were screened, of which 1065 (6.4%) met selection criteria. Bacterial infections were reported in 564 (53.0%) records, viral infections in 374 (35.1%), parasitic infections in 47 (4.4%), fungal infections in nine (0.8%), and 71 (6.7%) publications reported more than one pathogen group. Age range of the study population was not specified in 233 (21.9%) publications. Staphylococcus aureus (18.2%), non-typhoidal Salmonella (17.3%), and Escherichia coli (15.4%) were the commonly reported bacterial infections whereas Rift Valley fever virus (7.4%), yellow fever virus (7.0%), and Ebola virus (6.7%) were the most commonly reported viral infections. Dengue virus infection, previously not thought to be widespread in Africa, was reported in 54 (5.1%) of articles.

CONCLUSIONS

This review summarises the published reports of non-malaria pathogens that may cause febrile illness in Africa. As the threat of antimicrobial resistance looms, knowledge of the distribution of infectious agents causing fever should facilitate priority setting in the development of new diagnostic tools and improved antimicrobial stewardship.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO, CRD42016049281.

When fever is not malaria in Latin America: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

In malaria-endemic countries, febrile episodes caused by diseases other than malaria are a growing concern. However, limited knowledge of the prevalent etiologic agents and their geographic distributions restrict the ability of health services to address non-malarial morbidity and mortality through effective case management. Here, we review the etiology of fever in Latin America (LA) between 1980 and 2015 and map significant pathogens commonly implicated in febrile infectious diseases.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted, without language restrictions, in three distinct databases in order to identify fever etiology studies that report laboratory-confirmed fever-causing pathogens that were isolated from usually sterile body sites. Data analyses and mapping was conducted with Tableau Desktop (version 2018.2.3).

RESULTS

Inclusion criteria were met by 625 publications corresponding to data relative to 34 countries. Studies using serology (n = 339) predominated for viral infections, culture (n = 131) for bacteria, and microscopy (n = 62) for fungi and parasites. The pathogen groups most frequently reported were viral infections (n = 277), bacterial infections (n = 265), parasitic infections (n = 59), fungal infections (n = 47), and more than one pathogen group (n = 24). The most frequently reported virus was dengue virus (n = 171), followed by other arboviruses (n = 55), and hantavirus (n = 18). For bacteria, Staphylococcus spp. (n = 82), Rickettsia spp. (n = 70), and Leptospira spp. (n = 55) were frequently reported. Areas with biggest gaps on etiology of fever were apparent.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides a landscape of pathogens causing febrile illness other than malaria in LA for over 30 years. Our findings highlight the need to standardize protocols and report guidelines for fever etiology studies for better comparability of results and improved interpretation. Lastly, we should improve existing national laboratory surveillance systems, especially from low- to middle-income countries, to inform global fever policy priorities and timely identify emerging infections threats.

STUDY REGISTRATION

PROSPERO systematic review registration number: CRD42016049281.

Febrile Illness Evaluation in a Broad Range of Endemicities (FIEBRE): protocol for a multisite prospective observational study of the causes of fever in Africa and Asia

INTRODUCTION

Fever commonly leads to healthcare seeking and hospital admission in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. There is only limited guidance for clinicians managing non-malarial fevers, which often results in inappropriate treatment for patients. Furthermore, there is little evidence for estimates of disease burden, or to guide empirical therapy, control measures, resource allocation, prioritisation of clinical diagnostics or antimicrobial stewardship. The Febrile Illness Evaluation in a Broad Range of Endemicities (FIEBRE) study seeks to address these information gaps.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

FIEBRE investigates febrile illness in paediatric and adult outpatients and inpatients using standardised clinical, laboratory and social science protocols over a minimum 12-month period at five sites in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeastern and Southern Asia. Patients presenting with fever are enrolled and provide clinical data, pharyngeal swabs and a venous blood sample; selected participants also provide a urine sample. Laboratory assessments target infections that are treatable and/or preventable. Selected point-of-care tests, as well as blood and urine cultures and antimicrobial susceptibility testing, are performed on site. On day 28, patients provide a second venous blood sample for serology and information on clinical outcome. Further diagnostic assays are performed at international reference laboratories. Blood and pharyngeal samples from matched community controls enable calculation of AFs, and surveys of treatment seeking allow estimation of the incidence of common infections. Additional assays detect markers that may differentiate bacterial from non-bacterial causes of illness and/or prognosticate illness severity. Social science research on antimicrobial use will inform future recommendations for fever case management. Residual samples from participants are stored for future use.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained from all relevant institutional and national committees; written informed consent is obtained from all participants or parents/guardians. Final results will be shared with participating communities, and in open-access journals and other scientific fora. Study documents are available online (https://doi.org/10.17037/PUBS.04652739).

In-vitro diagnostic point-of-care tests in paediatric ambulatory care: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Paediatric consultations form a significant proportion of all consultations in ambulatory care. Point-of-care tests (POCTs) may offer a potential solution to improve clinical outcomes for children by reducing diagnostic uncertainty in acute illness, and streamlining management of chronic diseases. However, their clinical impact in paediatric ambulatory care is unknown. We aimed to describe the clinical impact of all in-vitro diagnostic POCTs on patient outcomes and healthcare processes in paediatric ambulatory care.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Pubmed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Web of Science from inception to 29 January 2020 without language restrictions. We included studies of children presenting to ambulatory care settings (general practice, hospital outpatient clinics, or emergency departments, walk-in centres, registered drug shops delivering healthcare) where in-vitro diagnostic POCTs were compared to usual care. We included all quantitative clinical outcome data across all conditions or infection syndromes reporting on the impact of POCTs on clinical care and healthcare processes. Where feasible, we calculated risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) by performing meta-analysis using random effects models.

RESULTS

We included 35 studies. Data relating to at least one outcome were available for 89,439 children of whom 45,283 had a POCT across six conditions or infection syndromes: malaria (n = 14); non-specific acute fever 'illness' (n = 7); sore throat (n = 5); acute respiratory tract infections (n = 5); HIV (n = 3); and diabetes (n = 1). Outcomes centred around decision-making such as prescription of medications or hospital referral. Pooled estimates showed that malarial-POCTs (Plasmodium falciparum) better targeted antimalarial treatment by reducing over-treatment by a third compared to usual care (RR 0.67; 95% CI [0.58 to 0.77], n = 36,949). HIV-POCTs improved initiating earlier antiretroviral therapy compared to usual care (RR, 3.11; 95% CI [1.55 to 6.25], n = 912). Across the other four conditions, there was limited evidence for the benefit of POCTs in paediatric ambulatory care except for acute respiratory tract infections (RTI) in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), where POCT C-Reactive Protein (CRP) may reduce immediate antibiotic prescribing by a third (risk difference, -0.29 [-0.47, -0.11], n = 2,747). This difference was shown in randomised controlled trials in LMICs which included guidance on interpretation of POCT-CRP, specific training or employed a diagnostic algorithm prior to POC testing.

CONCLUSION

Overall, there is a paucity of evidence for the use of POCTs in paediatric ambulatory care. POCTs help to target prescribing for children with malaria and HIV. There is emerging evidence that POCT-CRP may better target antibiotic prescribing for children with acute RTIs in LMIC, but not in high-income countries. Research is urgently needed to understand where POCTs are likely to improve clinical outcomes in paediatric settings worldwide.

Prevalence and Clinical Management of Non-malarial Febrile Illnesses among Outpatients in the Era of Universal Malaria Testing in Malawi

Increasing access to rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (mRDTs) has raised awareness of the challenges healthcare workers face in managing non-malarial febrile illnesses (NMFIs). We examined NMFI prevalence, clinical diagnoses, and prescribing practices in outpatient clinics across different malaria transmission settings in Malawi. Standardized facility-based malaria surveillance was conducted at three facilities one of every 4 weeks over 2 years. Information on demographics, presenting symptoms, temperature, clinical diagnosis, and treatment were collected from outpatients presenting with malaria-like symptoms. Of the 25,486 patients with fever, 69% had NMFI. Non-malarial febrile illness prevalence was lower in 5- to 15-year-old patients (55%) than in children < 5 years (72%) and adults > 15 years of age (77%). The most common clinical diagnoses among febrile patients with negative mRDTs in all age-groups and settings were respiratory infections (46%), sepsis (29%), gastroenteritis (13%), musculoskeletal pain (9%), and malaria (5%). Antibiotic prescribing was high in all age-groups and settings. Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (40%) and amoxicillin (29%) were the most commonly prescribed antibiotics and were used for nearly all clinical diagnoses. In these settings with minimal access to diagnostic tools, patients with fever and a negative mRDT received a limited number of clinical diagnoses. Many were likely to be inaccurate and were associated with the inappropriate use of the limited range of available antibiotics. Prescription and diagnostic practices for NMFIs in the facilities require research and policy input. Resource-limited malaria-endemic countries urgently need more point-of-care diagnostic tools and evidence-based diagnosis and treatment algorithms to provide effective and cost-efficient care.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of introducing subsidised malaria rapid diagnostic tests in the private retail sector in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Over the last 10 years, there has been a huge shift in malaria diagnosis in public health facilities, due to widespread deployment of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), which are accurate, quick and easy to use and inexpensive. There are calls for RDTs to be made available at-scale in the private retail sector where many people with suspected malaria seek care. Retail sector RDT use in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is limited to small-scale studies, and robust evidence on value-for-money is not yet available. We modelled the cost-effectiveness of introducing subsidised RDTs and supporting interventions in the SSA retail sector, in a context of a subsidy programme for first-line antimalarials.

Methods

We developed a decision tree following febrile patients through presentation, diagnosis, treatment, disease progression and further care, to final health outcomes. We modelled results for three ‘treatment scenarios’, based on parameters from three small-scale studies in Nigeria (TS-N), Tanzania (TS-T) and Uganda (TS-U), under low and medium/high transmission (5% and 50% Plasmodium falciparum (parasite) positivity rates (PfPR), respectively).

Results

Cost-effectiveness varied considerably between treatment scenarios. Cost per disability-adjusted life year averted at 5% PfPR was US$482 (TS-N) and US$115 (TS-T) and at 50% PfPR US$44 (TS-N) and US$45 (TS-T), from a health service perspective. TS-U was dominated in both transmission settings.

Conclusion

The cost-effectiveness of subsidised RDTs is strongly influenced by treatment practices, for which further evidence is required from larger-scale operational settings. However, subsidised RDTs could promote increased use of first-line antimalarials in patients with malaria. RDTs may, therefore, be more cost-effective in higher transmission settings, where a greater proportion of patients have malaria and benefit from increased antimalarial use. This is contrary to previous public sector models, where RDTs were most cost-effective in lower transmission settings as they reduced unnecessary antimalarial use in patients without malaria.

Algorithm in the Diagnosis of Febrile Illness Using Pathogen-specific Rapid Diagnostic Tests

BACKGROUND

In the absence of proper guidelines and algorithms, available rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for common acute undifferentiated febrile illnesses are often used inappropriately.

METHODS

Using prevalence data of 5 common febrile illnesses from India and Cambodia, and performance characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) of relevant pathogen-specific RDTs, we used a mathematical model to predict the probability of correct identification of each disease when diagnostic testing occurs either simultaneously or sequentially in various algorithms. We developed a web-based application of the model so as to visualize and compare output diagnostic algorithms when different disease prevalence and test performance characteristics are introduced.

RESULTS

Diagnostic algorithms with appropriate sequential testing predicted correct identification of etiology in 74% and 89% of patients in India and Cambodia, respectively, compared with 46% and 49% with simultaneous testing. The optimally performing sequential diagnostic algorithms differed in India and Cambodia due to varying disease prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Simultaneous testing is not appropriate for the diagnosis of acute undifferentiated febrile illnesses with presently available tests, which should deter the unsupervised use of multiplex diagnostic tests. The implementation of adaptive algorithms can predict better diagnosis and add value to the available RDTs. The web application of the model can serve as a tool to identify the optimal diagnostic algorithm in different epidemiological settings, while taking into account the local epidemiological variables and accuracy of available tests.