The inverse relationship between national food security and annual cholera incidence: a 30-country analysis

Food Insecurity at Tuberculosis Treatment Initiation Is Associated With Clinical Outcomes in Rural Haiti: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a leading cause of death worldwide, and food insecurity is known to negatively influence health outcomes through multiple pathways. Few studies have interrogated the relationship between food insecurity and tuberculosis outcomes, particularly independent of nutrition.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of adults initiating first-line treatment for clinically suspected or microbiologically confirmed drug-sensitive tuberculosis at a rural referral center in Haiti. We administered a baseline questionnaire, collected clinical data, and analyzed laboratory samples. We used logistic regression models to estimate the relationship between household food insecurity (Household Hunger Scale) and treatment failure or death. We accounted for exclusion of patients lost to follow-up using inverse probability of censoring weighting and adjusted for measured confounders and nutritional status using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

RESULTS

We enrolled 257 participants (37% female) between May 2020 and March 2023 with a median age (interquartile range) of 35 (25-45) years. Of these, 105 (41%) had no hunger in the household, 104 (40%) had moderate hunger in the household, and 48 (19%) had severe hunger in the household. Eleven participants (4%) died, and 6 (3%) had treatment failure. After adjustment, food insecurity was significantly associated with subsequent treatment failure or death (odds ratio 5.78 [95% confidence interval, 1.20-27.8]; P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

Household food insecurity at tuberculosis treatment initiation was significantly associated with death or treatment failure after accounting for loss to follow-up, measured confounders, and nutritional status. In addition to the known importance of undernutrition, our findings indicate that food insecurity independently affects tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Haiti.

Modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology: A systematic and critical review

Diverse modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology have been developed and used to (1) study its transmission dynamics, (2) predict and manage cholera outbreaks, and (3) assess the impact of various control and mitigation measures. In this study, we carry out a critical and systematic review of various approaches used for modelling the dynamics of cholera. Also, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each modelling approach. A systematic search of articles was conducted in Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Taylor & Francis. Eligible studies were those concerned with the dynamics of cholera excluding studies focused on models for cholera transmission in animals, socio-economic factors, and genetic & molecular related studies. A total of 476 peer-reviewed articles met the inclusion criteria, with about 40% (32%) of the studies carried out in Asia (Africa). About 52%, 21%, and 9%, of the studies, were based on compartmental (e.g., SIRB), statistical (time series and regression), and spatial (spatiotemporal clustering) models, respectively, while the rest of the analysed studies used other modelling approaches such as network, machine learning and artificial intelligence, Bayesian, and agent-based approaches. Cholera modelling studies that incorporate vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen are scarce and a small portion of researchers (3.99%) considers the estimation of key epidemiological parameters. Vaccination only platform was utilized as a control measure in more than half (58%) of the studies. Research productivity in cholera epidemiological modelling studies have increased in recent years, but authors used diverse range of models. Future models should consider incorporating vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen and on the estimation of key epidemiological parameters for the transmission of cholera dynamics.

Climate change and its impact on infectious diseases in Asia

ABSTRACT

Climate change, particularly increasing temperature, changes in rainfall, extreme weather events and changes in vector ecology, impacts the transmission of many climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Asia is the world's most populous, rapidly evolving and diverse continent, and it is already experiencing the effects of climate change. Climate change intersects with population, sociodemographic and geographical factors, amplifying the public health impact of infectious diseases and potentially widening existing disparities. In this narrative review, we outline the evidence of the impact of climate change on infectious diseases of importance in Asia, including vector-borne diseases, food- and water-borne diseases, antimicrobial resistance and other infectious diseases. We also highlight the imperative need for strategic intersectoral collaboration at the national and global levels and for the health sector to implement adaptation and mitigation measures, including responsibility for its own greenhouse gas emissions.

Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. We assess current methodological approaches to these issues via a case study of the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We consider three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We evaluate previous methods used for fitting these models, and we demonstrate modified data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches for diagnosing model misspecification and the consequent development of improved models. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of recent advances in likelihood maximization for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamic models, enabling likelihood-based inference for spatiotemporal incidence data using this class of models. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system.

Influences of community engagement and health system strengthening for cholera control in cholera reporting countries

The 2030 Global Task Force on Cholera Control Roadmap hinges on strengthening the implementation of multistranded cholera interventions, including community engagement and health system strengthening. However, a composite picture of specific facilitators and barriers for these interventions and any overlapping factors existing between the two, is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to address this shortcoming, focusing on cholera-reporting countries, which are disproportionately affected by cholera and may be cholera endemic. A scoping methodology was chosen to allow for iterative mapping, synthesis of the available research and to pinpoint research activity for global and local cholera policy-makers and shareholders. Using the Arksey and O'Malley framework for scoping reviews, we searched PubMed, Web of Science and CINAHL. Inclusion criteria included publication in English between 1990 and 2021 and cholera as the primary document focus in an epidemic or endemic setting. Data charting was completed through narrative descriptive and thematic analysis. Forty-four documents were included, with half relating to sub-Saharan African countries, 68% (30/44) to cholera endemic settings and 21% (9/44) to insecure settings. We identified four themes of facilitators and barriers to health systems strengthening: health system cooperation and agreement with external actors; maintaining functional capacity in the face of change; good governance, focused political will and sociopolitical influences on the cholera response and insecurity and targeted destruction. Community engagement had two themes: trust building in the health system and growing social cohesion. Insecurity and the community; cooperation and agreement; and sociopolitical influences on trust building were themes of factors acting at the interface between community engagement and health system. Given the decisive role of the community-health system interface for both sustained health system strengthening and community engagement, there is a need to advocate for conflict resolution, trust building and good governance for long-term cholera prevention and control in cholera reporting countries.

Food Security as a Predictor of Global Pediatric Postburn Mortality

Food security (FS) is defined as access to sufficient and nutritious food. Children, especially those in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs), are disproportionately affected by low FS. We hypothesized high FS would be predictive of decreased pediatric postburn mortality in LMICs. Publicly-available, deidentified datasets were obtained from the World Health Organization's Global Burn Registry (GBR) and Economist Intelligence Unit's Global FS Index (GFSI). The GFSI calculates FS scores annually from intergovernmental organization data reviewed by a panel of experts. FS scores are reported on a 0 to 100 scale with 100 indicating the highest FS. Patients aged 0 to 19 yr were included; after linking GBR and GFSI datasets, countries with <100 burn patients were excluded. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and bivariate analyses. Multiple logistic regression controlling for confounders was used to quantify associations between mortality and FS score. Significance was set at P < 0.05. From 2016 to 2020, there were 2,246 cases including 259 deaths (11.5%) over nine countries. Those who died had a higher median age (7 [IQR 2, 15] vs 3 [2, 6] years, P < 0.001), higher proportion of females (48.6% vs 42.0%, P =0.048), and lower median FS score (55.7 [IQR 45.3, 58.2] vs 59.8 [IQR 46.7, 65.7], P < 0.001). Increasing FS score was associated with decreased odds of postburn mortality [multivariable odds ratio 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.83), P < 0.001]. With the association between FS and mortality, international efforts to increase FS in LMICs may help improve pediatric burn patient survival.

Food insecurity and risk of cholera: A cross-sectional study and exploratory analysis of potential mediators

BACKGROUND

Food insecurity has been independently associated with developing cholera and there is an inverse relationship between national food security and annual cholera incidence. However, the factors that mediate the risk of cholera among food insecure households remain largely unexplored.

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In a cross-sectional survey of rural households in Haiti, we explored the role of food behaviors (i.e., dietary choices and food-handling practices) as mediators of cholera risk among food-insecure families. We generated a series of multivariable regression models to test hypothesized associations between the severity of food insecurity (measured by the Household Hunger Scale), hygiene and food behaviors, and history of severe, medically-attended cholera. Moderate household hunger (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] 1.47, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.05-2.04; p = 0.021) and severe hunger (AOR 2.45, 95% CI 1.45-4.15; p = 0.001) were positively associated with a history of severe, medically-attended cholera compared with little to no household hunger. Household hunger was positively associated with three behaviors: antacid use, consumption of leftover non-reheated food, and eating food and beverages prepared outside of the home (i.e., at a restaurant or from a vendor). Consumption of outside food items and antacid use were positively associated with a history of cholera.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that food behaviors may mediate the association between food insecurity and cholera and contribute to an understanding of how interventions could be designed to target food insecurity as part of cholera prevention and control.

Dynamic mapping of cholera outbreak during the Yemeni Civil War, 2016-2019

Widespread destruction from the Yemeni Civil War (2014-present) triggered the world's largest cholera outbreak. We compiled a comprehensive health dataset and created dynamic maps to demonstrate spatiotemporal changes in cholera infections and war conflicts. We aligned and merged daily, weekly, and monthly epidemiological bulletins of confirmed cholera infections and daily conflict events and fatality records to create a dataset of weekly time series for Yemen at the governorate level (subnational regions administered by governors) from 4 January 2016 through 29 December 2019. We demonstrated the use of dynamic mapping for tracing the onset and spread of infection and manmade factors that amplify the outbreak. We report curated data and visualization techniques to further uncover associations between infectious disease outbreaks and risk factors and to better coordinate humanitarian aid and relief efforts during complex emergencies.

Identifying transferable lessons from cholera epidemic responses by Médecins Sans Frontières in Mozambique, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, 2015-2018: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Cholera epidemics occur frequently in low-income countries affected by concurrent humanitarian crises. Evaluations of these epidemic response remains largely unpublished and there is a need to generate evidence on response efforts to inform future programmes. This review of MSF cholera epidemic responses aimed to describe the main characteristics of the cholera epidemics and related responses in these three countries, to identify challenges to different intervention strategies based on available data; and to make recommendations for epidemic prevention and control practice and policy.

METHODS

Case studies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi and Mozambique were purposively selected by MSF for this review due to the documented burden of cholera in each country, frequency of cholera outbreaks, and risk of humanitarian crises. Data were extracted on the characteristics of the epidemics; time between alert and response; and, the delivery of health and water, sanitation and hygiene interventions. A Theory of Change for cholera response programmes was built to assess factors that affected implementation of the responses.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

20 epidemic response reports were identified, 15 in DRC, one in Malawi and four in Mozambique. All contexts experienced concurrent humanitarian crises, either armed conflict or natural disasters. Across the settings, median time between the date of alert and date of the start of the response by MSF was 23 days (IQR 14-41). Almost all responses targeted interventions community-wide, and all responses implemented in-patient treatment of suspected cholera cases in either established health care facilities (HCFs) or temporary cholera treatment units (CTUs). In three responses, interventions were delivered as case-area targeted interventions (CATI) and four responses targeted households of admitted suspected cholera cases. CATI or delivery of interventions to households of admitted suspected cases occurred from 2017 onwards only. Overall, 74 factors affecting implementation were identified including delayed supplies of materials, insufficient quantities of materials and limited or lack of coordination with local government or other agencies. Based on this review, the following recommendations are made to improve cholera prevention and control efforts: explore improved models for epidemic preparedness, including rapid mobilisation of supplies and deployment of trained staff; invest in and strengthen partnerships with national and local government and other agencies; and to standardise reporting templates that allow for rigorous and structured evaluations within and across countries to provide consistent and accessible data.

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI<mod). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R2) in GFSI and FI<mod, respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

Country Income Is Only One of the Tiles: The Global Journey of Antimicrobial Resistance among Humans, Animals, and Environment

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the most complex global health challenges today: decades of overuse and misuse in human medicine, animal health, agriculture, and dispersion into the environment have produced the dire consequence of infections to become progressively untreatable. Infection control and prevention (IPC) procedures, the reduction of overuse, and the misuse of antimicrobials in human and veterinary medicine are the cornerstones required to prevent the spreading of resistant bacteria. Purified drinking water and strongly improved sanitation even in remote areas would prevent the pollution from inadequate treatment of industrial, residential, and farm waste, as all these situations are expanding the resistome in the environment. The One Health concept addresses the interconnected relationships between human, animal, and environmental health as a whole: several countries and international agencies have now included a One Health Approach within their action plans to address AMR. Improved antimicrobial usage, coupled with regulation and policy, as well as integrated surveillance, infection control and prevention, along with antimicrobial stewardship, sanitation, and animal husbandry should all be integrated parts of any new action plan targeted to tackle AMR on the Earth. Since AMR is found in bacteria from humans, animals, and in the environment, we briefly summarize herein the current concepts of One Health as a global challenge to enable the continued use of antibiotics.