Is health politically irrelevant? Experimental evidence during a global pandemic

Regime Type and Data Manipulation: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

CONTEXT

This study examines whether autocratic governments are more likely than democratic governments to manipulate health data. The COVID-19 pandemic presents a unique opportunity for examining this question because of its global impact.

METHODS

Three distinct indicators of COVID-19 data manipulation were constructed for nearly all sovereign states. Each indicator was then regressed on democracy and controls for unintended misreporting. A machine learning approach was then used to determine whether any of the specific features of democracy are more predictive of manipulation.

FINDINGS

Democracy was found to be negatively associated with all three measures of manipulation, even after running a battery of robustness checks. Absence of opposition party autonomy and free and fair elections were found to be the most important predictors of deliberate undercounting.

CONCLUSIONS

The manipulation of data in autocracies denies citizens the opportunity to protect themselves against health risks, hinders the ability of international organizations and donors to identify effective policies, and makes it difficult for scholars to assess the impact of political institutions on population health. These findings suggest that health advocates and scholars should use alternative methods to estimate health outcomes in countries where opposition parties lack autonomy or must participate in uncompetitive elections.

When do democratic transitions reduce or increase child mortality? Exploring the role of non-violent resistance

What explains variation across countries in the effect of democratization on child mortality rates? Democratic transitions, on average, improve health outcomes but there is substantial variation across countries in whether democratization leads to lower-than-expected child mortality post-transition. As yet, there is no convincing quantitative explanation for this variation. In this paper, we argue that whether you have a protest-led or violence-led democratic transition alters the trajectory of child mortality post-transition. Our paper makes two contributions. First, we offer a more detailed account of how the type of resistance movement promoting regime change affects health post-transition. We also draw on novel data to categorise the movements producing democratic transitions as violent or peaceful, moving beyond earlier work which operationalised peaceful democratizations in terms of battle-related deaths. Second, we extend earlier research by examining whether the nature of the democratization movement constitutes a necessary cause of higher or lower-than-expected child mortality following democratization. Across 51 transitions, countries that have a protest-led transition have lower-than-expected child mortality rates after the transition to democracy than countries with other kinds of movements (β = -0.17, p = 0.003). Countries with violence-led transitions, meanwhile, have, on average, higher-than-expected child mortality rates after their transition (β = 0.20, p = 0.001). These associations hold when we adjust for covariates (including all possible combinations of various confounding variables). We also find evidence that protest-led transitions may be a necessary condition for avoiding increased child mortality post-transition. Finally, we conduct a deviant case analysis of transitions that appear to be contrary to our theory, finding that these cases are likely instances of measurement error. Democratization may not always improve health, but such health improvements are more likely when regime change is protest-led. This is because such movements are more likely to build broad coalitions committed to consensual politics post-transition, a critical feature of successful democracies.

Female political representation and the gender health gap: a cross-national analysis of 49 European countries

Background

Does increased female participation in the social and political life of a country improve health? Social participation may improve health because it ensures that the concerns of all people are heard by key decision-makers. More specifically, when women’s social participation increases this may lead to health gains because women are more likely to vote for leaders and lobby for policies that will enhance the health of everyone. This article tries to examine whether female participation is correlated with measures of health inequality.

Methods

We draw on data from the World Health Organization Health Equity Status Report initiative and the Varieties of Democracy project to assess whether health is better and health inequalities are smaller in countries where female political representation is greater.

Results

We find consistent evidence that greater female political representation is associated with lower geographical inequalities in infant mortality, smaller inequalities in self-reported health (for both women and men) and fewer disability-adjusted life-years lost for women and men. Finally, we find that greater female political representation is not only correlated with better health for men and women but is also correlated with a smaller gap between men and women because men seem to experience better health in such contexts.

Conclusions

Greater female political representation is associated with better health for everyone and smaller inequalities.