How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery

Qualified and motivated, but limited by specialty-specific barriers: a national survey of UK Palliative Medicine consultants research experience

OBJECTIVES

Providing high-quality safe palliative care requires high-quality clinically driven research. Little is known about how to optimise clinical research capacity in this field.To understand interest and capacity to conduct clinical research in palliative medicine and identify key facilitators and barriers, by surveying palliative medicine consultants and academic trainees.

METHODS

National online survey exploring experience in conducting research, including facilitators and barriers. Sent to all current UK palliative medicine consultants, and previous/current academic trainees. Descriptive statistics are reported with framework analysis of free text responses.

RESULTS

195 surveys were submitted including 15 respondents with Integrated Academic Training (IAT) experience. 78% (n=140/180) of consultants were interested in conducting research. Despite this enthusiasm, 83% had no allocated time within their job plan. 88% of those who undertook IAT would recommend IAT, but 60% reported difficulty transitioning from academic trainee to research active consultant.Barriers to research included; insufficient research culture and integration, with small teams working in a mixture of National Health Service (NHS) and non-NHS settings, leading to isolated, silo working. Even those who had undertaken IAT, felt a 'cliff edge' in opportunities after completing IAT. Filling service gaps was routinely prioritised over research activity.

CONCLUSION

Palliative medicine consultants, including those who have completed academic training want to conduct research but overwhelming barriers limit activity. A palliative care-specific strategy that permeates different palliative care settings, promotes interspecialty collaboration and improves the current infrastructure for palliative care research to maximise gains from IAT and embed a research culture are suggested.

Applying Digital Health in Cancer and Palliative Care in Europe: Policy Recommendations from an International Expert Workshop (MyPal Project)

Background: Digital health interventions are becoming increasingly important for adults, children, and young people with cancer and palliative care needs, but there is little research to guide policy and practice. Objectives: To identify recommendations for policy development of digital health interventions in cancer and palliative care. Design: Expert elicitation workshop. Setting: European clinical (cancer and palliative care, adult and pediatric), policy, technical, and research experts attended a one-day workshop in London, England, in October 2022, along with MyPal research consortium members. Methods: As part of the European Commission-funded MyPal project, we elicited experts' views on global, national, and institutional policies within structured facilitated groups, and conducted qualitative analysis on these discussions. Results/Implementation: Thirty-two experts from eight countries attended. Key policy drivers and levers in digital health were highlighted. Global level: global technology regulation, definitions, access to information technology, standardizing citizens' rights and data safety, digital infrastructure and implementation guidance, and incorporation of technology into existing health systems. National level: country-specific policy, compatibility of health apps, access to digital infrastructure including vulnerable groups and settings, development of guidelines, and promoting digital literacy. Institutional level: undertaking a needs assessment of service users and clinicians, identifying best practice guidelines, providing education and training for clinicians on digital health and safe digital data sharing, implementing plans to minimize barriers to accessing digital health care, minimizing bureaucracy, and providing technical support. Conclusions: Developers and regulators of digital health interventions may find the identified recommendations useful in guiding policy making and future research initiatives. MyPal child study Clinical Trial Registration NCT04381221; MyPal adult study Clinical Trial Registration NCT04370457.

What Aspects of Quality of Life are Important from Palliative Care Patients' Perspectives? A Framework Analysis to Inform Preference-Based Measures for Palliative and End-of-Life Settings

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Preference-based outcome measures are commonly applied in economic analyses to inform healthcare resource allocation decisions. Few preference-based outcome measures have been specifically developed for palliative and end-of-life settings. This study aimed to identify which quality-of-life domains are most important to Australians receiving specialised palliative care services to help determine if the development of a new condition-specific preference-based outcome measure is warranted.

METHODS

In-depth face-to-face interviews were conducted with 18 participants recruited from palliative care services in South Australia. Data were analysed using a framework analysis drawing on findings from a systematic review of international qualitative studies investigating the quality-of-life preferences of patients receiving palliation (domains identified included cognitive, emotional, healthcare, personal autonomy, physical, preparatory, social, spiritual). Participants identified missing or irrelevant domains in the EQ-5D and QLU-C10D questionnaires and ranked the importance of domains.

RESULTS

A priori domains were refined into cognitive, environmental, financial, independence, physical, psychological, social and spiritual. The confirmation of the eight important quality-of-life domains across multiple international studies suggests there is a relatively high degree of convergence on the perspectives of patients in different countries. Four domains derived from the interviews are not covered by the EQ-5D and QLU-C10D (cognitive, environmental, financial, spiritual), including one of the most important (spiritual).

CONCLUSIONS

Existing, popular, preference-based outcome measures such as the EQ-5D do not incorporate the most important, patient-valued, quality-of-life domains in the palliative and end-of-life settings. Development of a new, more relevant and comprehensive preference-based outcome measure could improve the allocation of resources to patient-valued services and have wide applicability internationally.

Current definitions of advanced multimorbidity: a protocol for a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

People living with and dying from multimorbidity are increasing in number, and ensuring quality care for this population is one of the major challenges facing healthcare providers. People with multimorbidity often have a high burden of palliative and end-of-life care needs, though they do not always access specialist palliative care services. A key reason for this is that they are often not identified as being in the last stages of their life by current healthcare providers and systems.This scoping review aims to identify and present the available evidence on how people with multimorbidity are currently included in research, policy and clinical practice.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Scoping review methodology, based on Arksey and O'Malley's framework, will be undertaken and presented using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews. Search terms have been generated using the key themes of 'multimorbidity', 'end of life' and 'palliative care'. Peer-reviewed research will be obtained through systematic searching of Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus and PsycINFO. Grey literature will be searched in a systematic manner. Literature containing a definition for adults with multimorbidity in a terminal phase of their illness experience will be included. After screening studies for eligibility, included studies will be described in terms of setting and characteristics as well as using inductive content analysis to highlight the commonalities in definitions.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required for this scoping review. The findings of the scoping review will be used internally as part of SPB's PhD thesis at the University of St Andrews through the Multimorbidity Doctoral Training Programme for Health Professionals, which is supported by the Wellcome Trust (223499/Z/21/Z) and published in an open access, peer-reviewed journal for wider dissemination.

Exploring the delivery of end-of-life care by community nurses

AIMS

To understand what aspects of care and support were important to bereaved relatives and to explore the experiences of nurses delivering end of life care.

METHODS

Interviews and focus groups were undertaken with 17 family members, 31 community nurses and 13 community hospital staff. A workshop was held with 6 family members, 13 community nurses and 3 hospital nurses to review findings and make recommendations for improvement.

FINDINGS

Four themes were identified: relationships and being treated as a whole person; being able to make choices; getting help when and where it is needed; specialist advice and care, especially at the very end of life.

CONCLUSION

Seeking feedback from relatives was valued both by family members and the staff and has provided an effective model to lead to focussed improvements.

Inpatient hospice admissions. Who is admitted and why: a mixed-method prospective study

Background

Over the next two decades, the numbers of people who will need palliative care in the United Kingdom and Ireland is projected to increase. Hospices play a vital role supporting people who require specialist palliative care input through community-based and inpatient palliative care services. Evidence is needed to understand the role of these different services to inform future service development.

Objectives

To describe the reasons for admission, and outcomes at the end of the stay, for patients admitted to two hospice inpatient units (IPUs).

Design

This was a mixed-methods study using a convergent, parallel mixed-methods design.

Methods

We reviewed the case notes of all patients admitted to two hospice inpatient units from July to November 2019; conducted semi-structured interviews with patients and families; as well as brief structured interviews with inpatient unit staff.

Results

Two hundred fifty-nine patients were admitted to a hospice IPU, accounting for 276 admissions in total. Overall, 53% were female; median age was 71 years (range: 26-95 years). Most patients (95%) were White British or Scottish, and 95% had a cancer diagnosis. Most patients were admitted from the community, under one-third were admitted from hospital. Most (85%) had previous palliative care involvement. Nearly, half had district nurse support (48%). Worry and anxiety was frequently reported as a reason for admission, alongside physical concerns. Median length of stay was 12 days, and 68% died during their stay. Hospice was recorded as the preferred place of care for 56% of those who died there.

Conclusions

Sustained efforts to promote the hospice as place of care for people with conditions other than cancer are needed alongside greater clarity regarding of the role of the hospice IPU, and who would benefit most from IPU support.

'When a patient chooses to die at home, that's what they want… comfort, home': Brilliance in community-based palliative care nursing

INTRODUCTION

To redress the scholarly preoccupation with gaps, issues, and problems in palliative care, this article extends previous findings on what constitutes brilliant palliative care to ask what brilliant nursing practices are supported and promoted.

METHODS

This study involved the methodology of POSH-VRE, which combines positive organisational scholarship in healthcare (POSH) with video-reflexive ethnography (VRE). From August 2015 to May 2017, inclusive, nurses affiliated with a community health service who delivered palliative care, contributed to this study as co-researchers (n = 4) or participants (n = 20). Patients who received palliative care (n = 30) and carers (n = 16) contributed as secondary participants, as they were part of observed instances of palliative care. With a particular focus on the practices and experiences that exceeded expectations and brought joy and delight, the study involved capturing video-recordings of community-based palliative care in situ; reflexively analysing the recordings with the nurses; as well as ethnography to witness, experience, and understand practices and experiences. Data were analysed, teleologically, to clarify what brilliant practices were supported and promoted.

RESULTS

Brilliant community-based palliative care nursing largely involved maintaining normality in patients' and carers' lives. The nurses demonstrated this by masking the clinical aspects of their role, normalising these aspects, and appreciating alternative 'normals'.

CONCLUSION

Redressing the scholarly preoccupation with gaps, issues, and problems in palliative care, this article demonstrates how what is ordinary is extraordinary. Specifically, given the intrusiveness and abnormalising effects of technical clinical interventions, brilliant community-based palliative care can be realised when nurses enact practices that serve to promote a patient or carer to normality.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

Patients and carers contributed to this study as participants, while nurses contributed to this study as co-researchers in the conduct of the study, the analysis and interpretation of the data, and the preparation of the article.

Estimation of the demand for palliative care in non-oncologic patients in Chile

BACKGROUND

Access to palliative care is an emerging global public health challenge. In Chile, a palliative care law was recently enacted to extend palliative care coverage to the non-oncologic population. Thus, a reliable and legitimate estimate of the demand for palliative care is needed for proper health policy planning.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the demand for Palliative Care in Chile.

METHODOLOGY

Diseases likely to require palliative care were identified according to literature and expert judgement. Annual deaths of diseases identified were estimated for the periods 2018-2020. Demand estimation corresponds to the identification of the proportion of deceased patients requiring palliative care based on the burden of severe health-related suffering. Finally, patient-years were estimated based on the expected survival adjustment.

RESULTS

The estimated demand for palliative care varies between 25,650 and 21,679 patients depending on the approximation used. In terms of annual demand, this varies between 1,442 and 10,964 patient-years. The estimated need has a minor variation between 2018 and 2019 of 0.85% on average, while 2020 shows a slightly higher decrease (7.26%).

CONCLUSION

This is a replicable method for estimating the demand of palliative care in other jurisdictions. Future studies could approach the demand based on the decedent population and living one for a more precise estimation and better-informed health planning. It is hoped that our methodological approach will serve as an input for implementing the palliative care law in Chile, and as an example of estimating the demand for palliative care in other jurisdictions.

Reliability and validity of the Self-Efficacy in Palliative Care Scale among nurses

OBJECTIVES

To provide appropriate palliative care, nurses should have appropriate level of self-efficacy in palliative care, but the levels among nurses were low. To improve the levels effectively, self-efficacy in palliative care should be assessed using reliable and valid instruments. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of the Self-Efficacy in Palliative Care Scale in Korean nurses.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional, observational study, 272 nurses (mean age: 30 years) were enrolled from 6 university-affiliated medical centers or community hospitals in South Korea. Data on self-efficacy and demographic characteristics were collected. Validity was assessed by exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses (SPSS and Mplus). Reliability and homogeneity were assessed by Cronbach's alpha and item analyses (SPSS), respectively.

RESULTS

The exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses supported the 4-factor structure (communication, assessment and symptom management, psychosocial and spiritual management of patient and family, and multiprofessional teamworking) with factor loadings >.60 and with good model fit: root mean square error of approximation =.07, Tucker-Lewis index =.94, comparative fit index =.95, and standardized root mean square residual =.04. Cronbach's alphas for the total scale and each of the subscales ranged from .883 to .965. The corrected item-total correlation coefficients of all items ranged from .61 to .90.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS

The findings of this study supported the reliability and validity of this instrument among Korean nurses. This instrument can be used to assess nurses' self-efficacy in palliative care and to test intervention effects on it.

Overprescribing among older people near end of life in Ireland: Evidence of prevalence and determinants from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA)

International evidence shows that people approaching end of life (EOL) have high prevalence of polypharmacy, including overprescribing. Overprescribing may have adverse side effects for mental and physical health and represents wasteful spending. Little is known about prescribing near EOL in Ireland. We aimed to describe the prevalence of two undesirable outcomes, and to identify factors associated with these outcomes: potentially questionable prescribing, and potentially inadequate prescribing, in the last year of life (LYOL). We used The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, a biennial nationally representative dataset on people aged 50+ in Ireland. We analysed a sub-sample of participants with high mortality risk and categorised their self-reported medication use as potentially questionable or potentially inadequate based on previous research. We identified mortality through the national death registry (died in <365 days versus not). We used descriptive statistics to quantify prevalence of our outcomes, and we used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with these outcomes. Of 525 observations, 401 (76%) had potentially inadequate and 294 (56%) potentially questionable medications. Of the 401 participants with potentially inadequate medications, 42 were in their LYOL. OF the 294 participants with potentially questionable medications, 26 were in their LYOL. One factor was significantly associated with potentially inadequate medications in LYOL: male (odds ratio (OR) 4.40, p = .004) Three factors were associated with potentially questionable medications in LYOL: male (OR 3.37, p = .002); three or more activities of daily living (ADLs) (OR 3.97, p = .003); and outpatient hospital visits (OR 1.03, p = .02). Thousands of older people die annually in Ireland with potentially inappropriate or questionable prescribing patterns. Gender differences for these outcomes are very large. Further work is needed to identify and reduce overprescribing near EOL in Ireland, particularly among men.

Uncertainty in multimorbidity: a shared experience we should recognise, acknowledge and communicate

Multimorbidity is increasingly common and inevitably results in uncertainties about health, care and the future. Such uncertainties may be experienced by patients, carers and health professionals. Given the ubiquitous presence of uncertainty, all professionals should be prepared to approach and address it in clinical practice. Uncertainty in multimorbidity can rarely be eliminated, and so, must be carefully addressed and communicated; however, there is little evidence on how to approach it. Key areas are: recognising the existence of uncertainty, acknowledging it, and communicating to achieve a shared understanding. Evaluation of what has been discussed, and preparedness to repeat such conversations are also important. Future research should explore optimal communication of uncertainty in multimorbidity.

Application of a person-centered prescription model improves pharmacotherapeutic indicators and reduces costs associated with pharmacological treatment in hospitalized older patients at the end of life

Objective

This study sought to investigate whether applying an adapted person-centered prescription (PCP) model reduces the total regular medications in older people admitted in a subacute hospital at the end of life (EOL), improving pharmacotherapeutic indicators and reducing the expense associated with pharmacological treatment.

Design

Randomized controlled trial. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05454644).

Setting

A subacute hospital in Basque Country, Spain.

Subjects

Adults ≥65 years (n = 114) who were admitted to a geriatric convalescence unit and required palliative care.

Intervention

The adapted PCP model consisted of a systematic four-step process conducted by geriatricians and clinical pharmacists. Relative to the original model, this adapted model entails a protocol for the tools and assessments to be conducted on people identified as being at the EOL.

Measurements

After applying the adapted PCP model, the mean change in the number of regular drugs, STOPPFrail (Screening Tool of Older Persons' Prescriptions in Frail adults with limited life expectancy) criteria, drug burden index (DBI), drug-drug interactions, medication regimen complexity index (MRCI) and 28-days medication cost of chronic prescriptions between admission and discharge was analyzed. All patients were followed for 3 months after hospital discharge to measure the intervention's effectiveness over time on pharmacotherapeutic variables and the cost of chronic medical prescriptions.

Results

The number of regular prescribed medications at baseline was 9.0 ± 3.2 in the intervention group and 8.2 ± 3.5 in the control group. The mean change in the number of regular prescriptions at discharge was -1.74 in the intervention group and -0.07 in the control group (mean difference = 1.67 ± 0.57; p = 0.007). Applying a PCP model reduced all measured criteria compared with pre-admission (p < 0.05). At discharge, the mean change in 28-days medication cost was significantly lower in the intervention group compared with the control group (-34.91€ vs. -0.36€; p < 0.004).

Conclusion

Applying a PCP model improves pharmacotherapeutic indicators and reduces the costs associated with pharmacological treatment in hospitalized geriatric patients at the EOL, continuing for 3 months after hospital discharge. Future studies must investigate continuity in the transition between hospital care and primary care so that these new care models are offered transversally and not in isolation.

Challenges in Palliative Care Nursing at a University Hospital: A Qualitative Interview Study

We examined the perception of palliative care nurses regarding challenges, coping strategies, resources, and needs when working in a university hospital in Austria. A qualitative descriptive design was applied, using semistructured interviews with 8 female and 2 male nurses. All interviews were recorded as digital audio and transcribed verbatim. We used thematic analysis and MAXQDA. In our analysis, 6 themes emerged: Four themes related to challenges: ( a ) lack of a supporting structural framework, ( b ) conflict in interdisciplinary work, ( c ) conflict with caregivers, and ( d ) dealing with death in a highly specialized university environment. One theme related to ( e ) individual solutions and coping strategies, and 1 theme comprised ( f ) needs and suggestions for improvements. Taking care of the family of a dying person, handling threatening situation, and working with inexperienced physicians were among the most important challenges reported by nurses. A supportive team, professional counseling, and training related to communication skills and to culturally specific needs of families are perceived to be necessary to provide high-quality palliative care. Addressing the needs of nurses can substantially improve their working condition and has an impact not only on the nurses themselves but also on the quality of patient care.

Total uncertainty: a systematic review and thematic synthesis of experiences of uncertainty in older people with advanced multimorbidity, their informal carers and health professionals

OBJECTIVES

uncertainty pervades the complex illness trajectories experienced by older adults with multimorbidity. Uncertainty is experienced by older people, their informal carers and professionals providing care, yet is incompletely understood. We aimed to identify and synthesise systematically the experience of uncertainty in advanced multimorbidity from patient, carer and professional perspectives.

DESIGN

systematic literature review of published and grey qualitative literature from 9 databases (Prospero CRD 42021227480).

PARTICIPANTS

older people with advanced multimorbidity, and informal carers/professionals providing care to this group. Exclusion criteria: early multimorbidity, insufficient focus on uncertainty.

ANALYSIS

weight-of-evidence assessment was used to appraise included articles. We undertook thematic synthesis of multi-perspective experiences and response to uncertainty.

RESULTS

from 4,738 unique search results, we included 44 articles relating to 40 studies. 22 focused on patient experiences of uncertainty (n = 460), 15 on carer experiences (n = 197), and 19 on health professional experiences (n = 490), with 10 exploring multiple perspectives. We identified a shared experience of 'Total Uncertainty' across five domains: 'appraising and managing multiple illnesses'; 'fragmented care and communication'; 'feeling overwhelmed'; 'uncertainty of others' and 'continual change'. Participants responded to uncertainty by either active (addressing, avoiding) or passive (accepting) means.

CONCLUSIONS

the novel concept of 'Total Uncertainty' represents a step change in our understanding of illness experience in advanced multimorbidity. Patients, carers and health professionals experienced uncertainty in similar domains, suggesting a shared understanding is feasible. The domains of total uncertainty form a useful organising framework for health professionals caring for older adults with multimorbidity.

Projecting future health and service use among older people in Ireland: an overview of a dynamic microsimulation model in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA)

Background: Demographic ageing is a population health success story but poses unprecedented policy challenges in the 21st century. Policymakers must prepare health systems, economies and societies for these challenges. Policy choices can be usefully informed by models that evaluate outcomes and trade-offs in advance under different scenarios. Methods: We developed a dynamic demographic-economic microsimulation model for the population aged 50 and over in Ireland: the Irish Future Older Adults Model (IFOAM).  Our principal dataset was The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). We employed first-order Markovian competing risks models to estimate transition probabilities of TILDA participants to different outcomes: diagnosis of serious diseases, functional limitations, risk-modifying behaviours, health care use and mortality. We combined transition probabilities with the characteristics of the stock population to estimate biennial changes in outcome state.   Results: IFOAM projections estimated large annual increases in total deaths, in the number of people living and dying with serious illness and functional impairment, and in demand for hospital care between 2018 and 2040.  The most important driver of these increases is the rising absolute number of older people in Ireland as the population ages. The increasing proportion of older old and oldest old citizens is projected to increase the average prevalence of chronic conditions and functional limitations. We deemed internal validity to be good but lacked external benchmarks for validation and corroboration of most outcomes. Conclusion: We have developed and validated a microsimulation model that projects health and related outcomes among older people in Ireland.  Future research should address identified policy questions. The model enhances the capacity of researchers and policymakers to quantitatively forecast health and economic dynamics among older people in Ireland, to evaluate ex ante policy responses to these dynamics, and to collaborate internationally on global challenges associated with demographic ageing.

Last Aid Training Online: Participants’ and Facilitators’ Perceptions from a Mixed-Methods Study in Rural Scotland

(1) Background: Palliative and end-of-life care services are increasingly gaining centre stage in health and social care contexts in the UK and globally. Death and dying need are relational processes. Building personal and community capacity along with resilience is vital to support families and communities to normalise death and dying. Last Aid Training (LAT) is one such innovative educational initiative which teaches the general public about the fundamentals of palliative care and promotes public discussion about death and dying. The Highland Hospice [HH] in Scotland has pioneered delivery of LAT in face-to-face settings since March 2019 and online since March 2020 to accommodate pandemic restrictions. (2) Methods: This study used a mixed-methods approach, combining an online survey with LAT participants followed by individual semi-structured qualitative interviews with both LAT participants and facilitators. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of LAT for participants at the individual, family, and community levels, as well as explore participant and facilitator experiences and perspectives of LAT in an online environment. (3) Results: Overall, this evaluation demonstrates that provision of foundational death literacy education in social contexts enhances the personal knowledge, skills, and confidence of individual community members and supports the notion that this personal growth could lead to strengthened community action. (4) Conclusions: Findings from this study concluded that there is potential to include LAT as the foundational core training to promote death literacy in communities with further exploration to integrate/align LAT with other national/global end-of-life care frameworks.

UK Palliative trainees Research Collaborative (UK-PRC): the first 5 years - 0-100 study sites

OBJECTIVES

Palliative care research suffers from underfunding and a workforce spread across multiple settings leading to a lack of large-scale studies. To facilitate multisite research and audit we set up the UK Palliative trainees Research Collaborative (UKPRC), the first national trainee-led audit and research collaborative in palliative care. Here, we critically review the progress and potential of the UKPRC since its inception in 2016, identifying key challenges and facilitators. Members of the UKPRC steering committee collaborated to write this reflection, reviewing existing evidence regarding trainee-led research collaboratives.

FINDINGS

The UKPRC has representation from 16/19 UK training regions. Projects are run by a core team; local collaborators collect data at each site. The collaborative is supported by academic leads and newly qualified consultants to develop a culture of continuous improvement in practice. We have conducted four national projects to date, including an audit covering 119 sites. Facilitators for our work include a focus on inclusivity and national representation; support from recently qualified consultants to ensure continuity; and taking a pragmatic approach, focusing initially on straightforward projects to build momentum. Challenges include the step from national audit to multisite, patient-facing research and maintaining continuity in a membership with high turnover.

CONCLUSIONS

There is potential to change practice through large scale data collection via the trainee-led collaborative model. Collaboration is especially important in a small specialty with limited resources. The UKPRC has demonstrated 'proof of concept' and has the potential to support and sustain a culture where research can flourish within palliative care.

Projecting future health and service use among older people in Ireland: an overview of a dynamic microsimulation model in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA)

Background: Demographic ageing is a population health success story but poses unprecedented policy challenges in the 21st century. Policymakers must prepare health systems, economies and societies for these challenges. Policy choices can be usefully informed by models that evaluate outcomes and trade-offs in advance under different scenarios.

Methods: We developed a dynamic demographic-economic microsimulation model for the population aged 50 and over in Ireland: the Irish Future Older Adults Model (IFOAM).  Our principal dataset was The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). We employed first-order Markovian competing risks models to estimate transition probabilities of TILDA participants to different outcomes: diagnosis of serious diseases, functional limitations, risk-modifying behaviours, health care use and mortality. We combined transition probabilities with the characteristics of the stock population to estimate biennial changes in outcome state.  

Results: IFOAM projections estimated large annual increases in total deaths, in the number of people living and dying with serious illness and functional impairment, and in demand for hospital care between 2018 and 2040.  The most important driver of these increases is the rising absolute number of older people in Ireland as the population ages. The increasing proportion of older old and oldest old citizens is projected to increase the average prevalence of chronic conditions and functional limitations. We deemed internal validity to be good but lacked external benchmarks for validation and corroboration of most outcomes.

Conclusion: We have developed and validated a microsimulation model that predicts future health and related outcomes among older people in Ireland.  Future research should address identified policy questions. The model enhances the capacity of researchers and policymakers to quantitatively forecast future health and economic dynamics among older people in Ireland, to evaluate ex ante policy responses to these dynamics, and to collaborate internationally on global challenges associated with demographic ageing.

Mortality risks of body mass index and energy intake trajectories in institutionalized elderly people: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Many factors can identify the mortality risks of institutionalized elderly people; among all such factors, body mass index (BMI) and energy intake (EI) can be employed as independent predictors. The objective of this study was to elucidate about the mortality risks and the trajectory of two parameters obtained from continuously monitored data.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study targeted 218 elderly people who were admitted to a nursing home for at least 6 months between 2007 and 2020 and passed away at the nursing home. BMI and EI (kcal) per body weight (BW) were continuously measured until death.

Results

BMI continued to decrease for 5 years until death. The rate of change of BMI significantly increased for 3 years before death (P = 0.004). In contrast, the rate of change of EI per BW significantly increased after 1 year before death (P < 0.001); in addition, 2 months before death, this rate of change significantly exceeded that of BMI (P = 0.007). In the four risk groups that were examined, a BMI of <18.0 + EI per BW of <29.2 and a BMI of <17.3 + EI per BW of <28.3 were significantly correlated with a high risk of death (log-rank test: P < 0.001, P = 0.002, respectively). There was no significant difference in the hazard ratio based on the age at the time of admission; however, when EI per BW was <23.8, the risk of death was significantly higher [hazard ratio = 4.36; 95% confidence interval: 2.31–8.24].

Conclusions

Elderly people in the current study presented a tendency toward decreasing BMI starting 60 months prior to death even if EI per BW remained constant. In the 1 year before death, EI per BW rapidly decreased. When the rate of change of EI per BW exceeded the rate of decrease of BMI, it was considered to be the point of no return when death was imminent. Our study showed that identifying mortality risks from the relationship between the trajectories of the two parameters that were continuously measured for several months to years is possible.

Projecting palliative and end-of-life care needs in Central Lancashire up to 2040: an integrated palliative care and public health approach

OBJECTIVES

A collaborative study was undertaken by palliative care and public health on behalf of Chorley & South Ribble and Greater Preston Clinical Commissioning Groups. Going beyond a traditional needs assessment by providing projections of local palliative and end-of-life care needs in all conditions over 20 years, the study will support locality commissioning and development of appropriate health care services.

STUDY DESIGN

Population-based needs assessment involving secondary analysis of routinely available regional mortality and population data for Central Lancashire (2017). Palliative care need was estimated using three different recognised methods.

METHODS

These estimates were combined with routinely available population and mortality projections and observed trends in palliative care need to provide projections up to 2040.

RESULTS

Palliative care need in 2017 in Chorley & South Ribble and Greater Preston is estimated to be between 75% (1292) and 97% (1670), and 74.9% (1337) and 95.7% (1710) of all deaths, respectively. By 2040, the annual need is projected to increase compared with 2017 figures, by 24.2-55.9% (314-729 more deaths) in Chorley & South Ribble and by 13.4-41.4% (180-554 more deaths) in Greater Preston. The numbers of deaths from dementia are forecast to increase by three-fold in both localities.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates practical application of public health data to support the development of locally responsive palliative care services. Dissemination of findings from this needs assessment on rising palliative care need, including numbers of deaths in different disease groups, provides direction to plan appropriate, equitable and sustainable services. Rapidly growing dementia deaths deserve particular attention in the planning of care. Collaborative work between public health and palliative care in other settings is encouraged, and will likely increase in significance as the full impact of COVID-19 is felt.