Acute food insecurity and short-term coping strategies of urban and rural households of Bangladesh during the lockdown period of COVID-19 pandemic of 2020: report of a cross-sectional survey

Food insecurity and its contributing determinants among rural households in the south-western region of Bangladesh, 2021: A cross-sectional study

Introduction

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted food access, resulting in substantial consequences for food insecurity and contributing to adverse individual and public health outcomes. To comprehensively evaluate these challenges and grasp their implications for food security, this study aimed to evaluate the contributing determinants of food insecurity among rural households in the southwestern region of Bangladesh.

Study design

A cross-sectional study was conducted using a validated questionnaire in selected 310 rural household respondents from the southwestern region of Bangladesh.

Methods

Household food insecurity status was the outcome variable for the analysis. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to explore and predict risk factors correlated with food insecurity among southwestern Bangladeshi households.

Results

We found that 59 % and 27.5 % of households were suffering from moderate food insecurity and severe food insecurity, respectively. The multinomial regression model revealed that respondents residing in Kusthia (RRR = 5.56 CI:2.67-8.4 and RRR = 6.65, CI:3.37-9.22) aged between 30 and 40 years (RRR = 2.32, 95 % CI:1.84-3.77 and RRR = 1.87, 95 % CI:1.48-3.97) and 40-50 years (RRR = 1.86 95 % CI:1.46-3.82 and RRR = 1.95, 95 % CI:1.75-3.26) were significantly associated with mild-to-moderate and severe food insecurity. Respondents with a monthly family income of <58.96 USD (3.38 times and 2.18 times), had ≥5 family members (2.68 times and 1.89 times), and had poor income during the pandemic (4.25 times and 2.75 times) more likely to be moderate and severe food insecure.

Conclusion

The results emphasized that during the COVID-19 lockdown in Bangladesh, rural households faced diverse levels of food insecurity, ranging from moderate to severe. It suggests that efforts to raise awareness and implement support strategies for those at higher risk should not only focus on income but also consider additional factors such as family size, adults aged 30-40 years, and occupation.

Small Intestine Bacterial Overgrowth is associated with increased Campylobacter and epithelial injury in duodenal biopsies of Bangladeshi children

Small intestine bacterial overgrowth (SIBO) has been associated with enteric inflammation, linear growth stunting, and neurodevelopmental delays in children from low-income countries. Little is known about the histologic changes or epithelial adherent microbiota associated with SIBO. We sought to describe these relationships in a cohort of impoverished Bangladeshi children. Undernourished 12-18-month-old children underwent both glucose hydrogen breath testing for SIBO and duodenoscopy with biopsy. Biopsy samples were subject to both histological scoring and 16s rRNA sequencing. 118 children were enrolled with 16s sequencing data available on 53. Of 11 histological features, we found that SIBO was associated with one, enterocyte injury in the second part of the duodenum (R = 0.21, p = 0.02). SIBO was also associated with a significant increase in Campylobacter by 16s rRNA analysis (Log 2-fold change of 4.43; adjusted p = 1.9 x 10-6). These findings support the growing body of literature showing an association between SIBO and enteric inflammation and enterocyte injury and further delineate the subgroup of children with environmental enteric dysfunction who have SIBO. Further, they show a novel association between SIBO and Campylobacter. Mechanistic work is needed to understand the relationship between SIBO, enterocyte injury, and Campylobacter.

Spatial and temporal trends in food security during the COVID-19 pandemic in Asia Pacific countries: India, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Vietnam

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

The economic recession caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic disproportionately affected poor and vulnerable populations globally. Better uunderstanding of vulnerability to shocks in food supply and demand in the Asia Pacific region is needed.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Using secondary data from rapid assessment surveys during the pandemic response (n = 10,420 in mid-2020; n = 6,004 in mid-2021) in India, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Vietnam, this study examined the risk factors for reported income reduction or job loss in mid-2021 and the temporal trend in food security status (household food availability, and market availability and affordability of essential items) from mid-2020 to mid-2021.

RESULTS

The proportion of job loss/reduced household income was highest in India (60.4%) and lowest in Indonesia (39.0%). Urban residence (odds ratio [OR] range, 2.20-4.11; countries with significant results only), female respondents (OR range, 1.40-1.69), engagement in daily waged labor (OR range, 1.54-1.68), and running a small trade/business (OR range, 1.66-2.71) were significantly associated with income reduction or job loss in three out of 4 countries (all P < 0.05). Food stock availability increased significantly in 2021 compared to 2020 in all four countries (OR range, 1.91-4.45) (all P < 0.05). Availability of all essential items at markets increased in India (OR range, 1.45-3.99) but decreased for basic foods, hygiene items, and medicine in Vietnam (OR range, 0.81-0.86) in 2021 compared to 2020 (all P < 0.05). In 2021, the affordability of all essential items significantly improved in India (OR range, 1.18-3.49) while the affordability of rent, health care, and loans deteriorated in Indonesia (OR range, 0.23-0.71) when compared to 2020 (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term social protection programs need to be carefully designed and implemented to address food insecurity among vulnerable groups, considering each country's market conditions, consumer food purchasing behaviors, and financial support capacity.

Food insecurity among consumers from rural areas in Romania

Food security has a special relevance in nowadays economies, due to the current crisis, characterized by multiple layers on a social, political, economic, and individual biological level. The present study aims to identify relevant aspects of food insecurity for consumers in rural Romania and the main factors that significantly influence it (food availability, food access, and food consumption). The data were collected from a sample of 875 consumers from rural areas in Romania. The results show that food insecurity is perceived by the consumers of Romanian rural households as being strongly influenced by food availability, but less influenced by food consumption and access. The results have an essential relevance in the development of agri-food marketing strategies and public policies in the field of sustainable development.

Success of health cell approach in improving knowledge, attitude and practice related to COVID-19: difference-in-differences analyses of a community-based quasi-experimental trial

OBJECTIVES

There remain hesitations and miscommunication regarding appropriate public health behaviours and conceptions related to COVID-19. We tested the effectiveness of the community-based health cell approach in improving knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) related to COVID-19.

SETTING

Households of the Bauniabadh slum area in Mirpur, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

Household heads (HHs) and homemakers (HMs) of intervention (n=211) and comparison households (n=209).

INTERVENTIONS

Behaviour change communication delivered at the community level in a quasi-experimental manner through small-scale community meetings and home visits.

OUTCOME VARIABLES AND METHODS

The outcomes of interest were before-after mean and per cent changes in KAP scores. Data were collected from HHs and HMs before and after the intervention and difference-in-differences (DID) analysis technique was applied.

RESULTS

We found statistically significant (p<0.05) before-after differences in the responses to the KAP questions made by the intervention groups. The DID models estimated the improvements in COVID-19-related KAP of HHs by 16.58 (95% CI: 14.05, 19.12), 20.92 (95% CI: 18.17, 23.67) and 28.45 (95% CI: 23.84, 33.07) per cent points, respectively. The DID estimates of KAP in HMs were 17.8 (95% CI: 15.09, 20.51), 22.33 (95% CI: 19.47, 25.19) and 28.06 (95% CI: 23.18, 32.93) per cent points, respectively. Overall, 20.91 (95% CI: 18.87, 22.94) and 21.81 (95% CI: 19.68, 23.94) per cent points of improvement were observed among HHs and HMs, respectively. The DID estimates of before-after mean changes in different KAP domains ranged from 2.24 to 2.68 units and the overall changes in KAP scores among HHs and HMs were 7.11 (95% CI: 6.42, 7.8) and 7.42 (95% CI: 6.69, 8.14) units.

CONCLUSION

Scientifically valid information disseminated at the community level using the health cell approach could bring positive changes in KAP related to COVID-19.

Qualitative exploration of the impact of COVID-19 on the food environment of urban informal settlements of Dhaka, Bangladesh

OBJECTIVE

Our study explored the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the food environment from the perspective of the urban poor and food vendors.

DESIGN

This was a qualitative study conducted during September 2020 and February 2021.

SETTING

The study was carried out in two purposively selected informal settlements of Dhaka City, Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

We conducted 21 in-depth interviews with residents of informal settlements and 10 key informant interviews with food vendors and food aid workers.

RESULT

The availability of staple foods was not disrupted during the pandemic but some perishables foods became more expensive due to supply chain disruptions and increased transportation costs. Limited market hours affected market access and mobility restrictions adversely affected local vendors. Cart vendors selling perishables incurred business losses they could ill afford. Demand for food reduced as employment disruption lead to reduced purchasing power and, therefore, reduction of quantity, quality and desirability of foods purchased. Respondents reported skipping meals and going hungry. The aid received was considered inadequate to meet needs.

CONCLUSION

The food environment of the urban poor was disrupted from both supply and demand sides and the organisational response (both government and non-government) was severely inadequate. The social safety net needs to be extended and redesigned to ensure food security and health for the urban working poor in the future.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the social sphere and lessons for crisis management: a literature review

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most difficult challenge that has affected humanity in recent decades. It has disrupted many features of development with domino effects in the social sphere. This study reviews the literature on the social effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and identifies the affected social areas that have undergone dramatic changes during the pandemic. We use inductive content analysis and thematic analysis to review the literature. The results show that there are seven major areas that have been negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic: health, social vulnerability, education, social capital, social relationships, social mobility, and social welfare. The literature has reported dramatic psychological and emotional effects, exacerbation of segregation and poverty, disruption in educational systems and formation of an information gap, as well as a declining trends of social capital among communities. We highlight some lessons that can be learned from the pandemic to enhance social resilience in future. Among others, to effectively respond to the pandemic and other potential future adverse events, governments should adopt fair policies, identify the required changes in the socially affected contexts and take necessary responsive actions, and adopt collaboratively designed approaches to increase social resilience.

Dietary diversity modification through school-based nutrition education among Bangladeshi adolescent girls: A cluster randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To measure the efficacy of school-based nutrition education on dietary diversity of the adolescent girls in Bangladesh.

METHODS

A matched, pair-cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted from July 2019 to September 2020. Randomization was done to select intervention and control schools. There were 300 participants (150 in the intervention and 150 in the control arm) at baseline. We randomly selected our study participants (adolescent girls) from grades six, seven, and eight of each school. Our intervention components included parents' meetings, eight nutrition education sessions, and the distribution of information, education, and communication materials. An hour-long nutrition education session was provided using audio-visual techniques in a class of intervention school once a week by trained staffs of icddr,b for two months. Data on dietary diversity, anthropometry, socio-economic and morbidity status, a complete menstrual history, and haemoglobin status of adolescent girls were collected at recruitment and after five months of intervention. We calculated the mean dietary diversity score of adolescent girls at baseline and at the endline. As the dietary diversity score was incomparable between the control and intervention arm at baseline, we performed the difference-in-difference analysis to assess the effect of the intervention.

RESULTS

Mean age of the adolescent girls was 12.31 years and 12.49 years in the control and intervention arms respectively. Percentages of consumption of organ meat, vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables, legumes, nuts, and seeds were higher in the intervention arm than in the control arm at the end-line. The mean dietary diversity score remained unchanged in the control arm at 5.55 (95% CI: 5.34-5.76) at baseline and 5.32 (95% CI: 5.11-5.54) at the endline. After the intervention, mean dietary diversity increased from 4.89 (95% CI: 4.67-5.10) at baseline to this mean was 5.66 (95% CI: 5.43-5.88) at the endline. Result from the difference-in-difference analysis revealed that the mean dietary diversity was likely to increase by 1 unit due to intervention.

CONCLUSION

The shorter duration of the intervention in our study could not show whether it could change the behavior of adolescent girls in increasing dietary diversity through school-based nutrition education, but it showed a pathway for increasing dietary diversity at school. We recommend including more clusters and other food environment elements in retesting to increase precision and acceptability.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, trial registration no: NCT04116593. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04116593.

Food insecurity in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic plain: Taking a closer look

OBJECTIVE

Food security is an important policy issue in India. As India recently ranked 107th out of 121 countries in the 2022 Global Hunger Index, there is an urgent need to dissect, and gain insights into, such a major decline at the national level. However, the existing surveys, due to small sample sizes, cannot be used directly to produce reliable estimates at local administrative levels such as districts.

DESIGN

The latest round of available data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey (HCES 2011-12) done by the National Sample Survey Office of India used stratified multi-stage random sampling with districts as strata, villages as first stage and households as second stage units.

SETTING

Our Small Area Estimation approach estimated food insecurity prevalence, gap, and severity of each rural district of the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain (EIGP) region by modeling the HCES data, guided by local covariates from the 2011 Indian Population Census.

PARTICIPANTS

In HCES, 5915 (34429), 3310 (17534) and 3566 (15223) households (persons) were surveyed from the 71, 38 and 18 districts of the EIGP states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal respectively.

RESULTS

We estimated the district-specific food insecurity indicators, and mapped their local disparities over the EIGP region. By comparing food insecurity with indicators of climate vulnerability, poverty and crop diversity, we shortlisted the vulnerable districts in EIGP.

CONCLUSIONS

Our district-level estimates and maps can be effective for informed policy-making to build local resiliency and address systemic vulnerabilities where they matter most in the post-pandemic era.

ADVANCES

Our study computed, for the Indian states in the EIGP region, the first area-level small area estimates of food insecurity as well as poverty over the past decade, and generated a ranked list of districts upon combining these data with measures of crop diversity and climatic vulnerability.

Prevalence and factors associated with food insecurity in eight high-altitude cities in Peru during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective, cross-sectional study

Background

Food insecurity has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting an estimated 260 million people. However, little evidence is available on how pandemic-related characteristics influence food security in a high-altitude population. The objective of this study was to assess factors associated with food insecurity in high-altitude Peruvian cities during the second epidemic wave of COVID-19.

Methods

A retrospective, cross-sectional study was conducted in eight Peruvian cities over 1,500 m above sea level. An online survey measuring food security, presence of anxiety & depressive symptoms, sleep quality, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), resilience, and sociodemographic characteristics was disseminated through social networks between December 2020 and February 2021. Generalized linear models were used to identify an association between the study variables.

Results

Of 700 participants, the median age was 23 years, and more than half were female (56.7%). The prevalence of food insecurity was 37.1%. Anxiety symptoms, depressive symptoms, and PTSD were present in 72.7%, 64.1%, and 15% of respondents, respectively. The prevalence of food insecurity was higher in people with fair (PR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.23–2.07) and very bad perception of their health (PR: 4.06, 95% CI: 2.63–6.26), individuals seeking mental health support (PR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.25–1.62), and in those who lost their job due to the pandemic (PR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.62–2.04). Having moderate (PR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.26–1.83) and moderate to severe depressive symptoms (PR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.11–2.27) also increased the prevalence of food insecurity.

Conclusion

During the pandemic, the prevalence of food insecurity has increased in the Peruvian high-altitude population, revealing the need for preventive strategies. Identification of pandemic-related characteristics that influence food insecurity can guide interventions in at-risk individuals and reduce the long-term impact of this problem on overall health and quality of life.

Understanding rural local government response during COVID-19-induced lockdown: perspective from Bangladesh

This study intends to explore the responses of local government during the COVID-19-induced lockdown in the rural areas, with particular emphasis on Bangladesh. By adopting a qualitative phenomenological research approach and employing multi-method data collection techniques (for instance, Key Informant Interview (KII), Focus Group Discussion (FGD), participant observation, and content analysis), this study found that the local governments managed the crisis of the pandemic relatively well with its limited manpower and funding through adequate preparedness and prevention strategies; effective emergency responses; and consolidated post-lockdown measures. The study revealed that the Bangladesh local government promptly took some essential actions, such as preparedness and prevention, arrangement of home quarantine and isolation, the training program for readiness, and disseminated crucial information to the local people during the pandemic, such as using masks, hand washing and sanitizing, and social distancing. Besides, the local government delivered relief, such as food and non-food items and financial support. Furthermore, the rural local government took post-lockdown responses to tackle pandemic in rural Bangladesh. Nevertheless, the service delivery individuals from local governance encountered numerous challenges, like scarcity of manpower, less support, and superstition, while providing services during the pandemic.

How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect food environment, food purchase, and fish consumption among low-income urban households in Bangladesh-A path analysis

Background

Animal source foods, especially fish is the most commonly consumed and an important source of macro and micronutrients in the diet of the urban low-income residents. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the food environment in Bangladesh but little is known about how food access and food prices (affordability) have affected the purchase and consumption of fish. The objective of the study was to understand the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on urban food environment with a specific focus on fish consumption.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 586 homogeneous adults (288 females and 298 males) from separate households from five informal settlements in Dhaka city, Bangladesh during October-November 2020. Data were collected on: (1) food access and affordably; and (2) food purchase and fish consumption. The associations between food access, price, food purchase, and fish consumption were evaluated using path analysis.

Results

The majority of respondents reported that food access was more difficult, food prices increased, and food purchase decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to pre-COVID (84-89% of respondents). Fish and meat were more difficult to access, more expensive and purchased less compared to other foods (74-91% of respondents). Compared to pre-COVID period, households consumed less fish during the COVID-19 pandemic, and reported compromised the variety and quality of fish. In the path analysis, food access was associated with food purchase (b = 0.33, p < 0.001). Food purchase was associated with quantity, variety, and quality of fish consumed. Food price was inversely associated with the quality of fish consumed (b = -0.27, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected the food environment, particularly food access, price (affordability), purchase, and consumption, especially of fish. Limited food access negatively affected the quantity, variety and quality of fish consumed. An increase in food prices directly affected the quality of fish consumed. Policy actions are essential to ensure equal access to nutritious foods, such as fish. These policies need to focus on diversity and quality along with preventing increases in food prices during emergencies to mitigate future threats to the nutrition and health of the urban low-income residents.

Food security status of Suchana-participating households in north-eastern rural Bangladesh

Despite achieving remarkable progress, food insecurity remains a major public health challenge in Bangladesh, and severe food insecurity status has not been reduced in susceptible areas and vulnerable regions in Bangladesh. Wetlands that are susceptible to flooding can be found in Bangladesh's north-eastern Sylhet division. Suchana, a large-scale nutrition programme, implemented nutrition-specific and sensitive interventions in poor and very poor households in Sylhet and Moulvibazar districts in the north-eastern region of Bangladesh. The aim of this article is to assess the association between the Suchana intervention and household food security status among poor and very poor households in north-eastern rural Bangladesh using the Suchana baseline and endline survey databases. The baseline survey was conducted between November 2016 and February 2017, while the endline survey was undertaken 3 years later, during the same months. The outcome variable in this analysis was household food security status, which was measured using the Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance's Guideline. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the data; after controlling for the union as a cluster and relevant covariates, a multiple multinomial logistic regression model was used to estimate the independent effect of the Suchana intervention as an exposure. Overall, 14.0% of households were food secure at the baseline survey (intervention: 14.1%, control: 14.0%) and 22.0% were food secure (intervention: 26.6%, control: 20.2%) at the endline survey. For households in the intervention area in comparison to the control area, the odds of being moderately food insecure [aOR: 1.36 (1.05, 1.76), p < 0.05], mildly food insecure [aOR: 1.83 (1.33, 2.51), p < 0.001], or food secure [aOR: 2.21 (1.47, 3.33), p < 0.001] compared to being severely food insecure was significantly higher. Thus, we infer that the 3 years of Suchana intervention marginally increased household food security status among the socio-economically disadvantaged population in north-eastern rural Bangladesh. If concerns regarding gender equity, women's education, and income-generating activities are addressed, the population could experience even greater benefits in food security. In order to overcome these challenges, all stakeholders including programme implementers and policymakers should work together to implement the appropriate measures.

Factors Associated with Food Insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean Countries: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of 13 Countries

It is estimated that Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is the region with the second highest figures for food insecurity (FI) globally, with a prevalence of 40.9% in the entire region. This cross-sectional study analyzes the household factors associated with FI across 13 LAC countries. We used data from the first round of high-frequency phone surveys, conducted by the World Bank. Approximately 4 out of 10 people in LAC experienced FI during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. FI was positively associated with the number of individuals aged from 5 to 18 years, the number of men, the illness, accident, or death of an income-earning household member, and health expenditure due to COVID-19 or other illnesses, as well as the increase in food prices, reduced family income, and job loss by a member of the household. On the other hand, households located in capital cities and those with more bedrooms were less likely to have experienced FI. The design of social policies must focus on the economic deficiencies experienced by the LAC population, with unemployment, reduced income, and high food costs being the main factors that must be addressed to ensure adequate nutrition.

Investigation of obesity, eating behaviors and physical activity levels living in rural and urban areas during the covid-19 pandemic era: a study of Turkish adolescent

Background

The purpose of this study was to determine the eating behaviors, obesity and physical activity status of children of similar ages living in rural and urban areas and to examine these relationships during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic process.

Method

The research was conducted using the scanning model. The research group consists of children living in rural and urban areas in Turkey. The sample of the study consists of a total of 733 adolescent participants, 351 females (47.9%) and 382 males (52.1%). After anthropometric measurements were made, the Physical Activity Questionnaire for older children and the Yale Food Addiction Scale for children 2.0 were used to determine the food addiction and physical activity status of children during the COVID19 pandemic process. Since the groups were homogeneously distributed, independent samples t-test and Pearson correlation test were used.

Result

In terms of food addiction and physical activity levels, children living in the urban have higher scores than children living in rural areas. In addition, children living in the urban were taller and have higher body mass values than those in rural areas. In terms of physical activity level and food addiction levels, while girls living in the urban had higher activity levels than those living in rural areas, no statistically significant difference was found between the physical activity levels of boys. When evaluated in terms of general and gender, it was determined that children living in rural areas were overweight and obese at a higher rate. Obese children had higher levels of food addiction and lower physical activity levels than non-obese children.

Conclusion

In order to prevent childhood obesity, the level of food addiction should be reduced as well as increasing the level of physical activity. This study is limited in terms of cross-sectional evaluation. Future research can experimentally reveal how much obesity is reduced by methods such as exercise and diet interventions.

Factors influencing low-income households' food insecurity in Bangladesh during the COVID-19 lockdown

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic and countrywide lockdown could negatively impact household food insecurity among low-income households. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of household food insecurity and its influencing factors among low-income people in Bangladesh during the lockdown of COVID-19.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted through face-to-face interviews from 500 low-income households during the countrywide COVID-19 lockdown. A pretested, structured and validated questionnaire was used to collect socioeconomic characteristics, household income conditions, and food accessibility. Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) and Dietary Diversity Score (DDS) were used to measure food insecurity. Multinomial logistic regression models were estimated to evaluate and predict risk factors that influence food insecurity.

RESULTS

The study found that above 67% of households was mild-to-moderate food insecure while 23% experienced severe food insecurity. Significantly, 88%, 97.4%, and 93.4% of the households had anxiety and uncertainty, inadequate quality, and inadequate quantity of food, respectively. The regression analysis revealed the age 36-50 years (RRR: 4.86; 95% CI: 2.31-7.44, RRR: 4.16; 95% CI: 2.25-6.10) and monthly income <58.3 USD (RRR: 3.04; 95% CI: 1.12-5.14, RRR: 3.26; 95% CI: 1.79-4.71) were significantly associated with food insecurity (p <0.001). Likewise, less-income (RRR: 3.87; 95% CI: 1.37-6.46, RRR: 2.99; 95% CI: 1.16-4.83), increase in food prices (RRR: 1.29; 95% CI: 0.32-2.33, RRR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.05-1.12), and those who did not have same type of earning as before during the COVID-19 lockdown (RRR: 3.41; 95% CI: 1.33-5.62, RRR: 2.60; 95% CI: 0.99-4.24) were potential risk factor for MMFI and FI.

CONCLUSION

This study found that households become more susceptible to food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown period. Based on the findings, we suggest some essential food policies and adequate food assistance to mitigate these negative consequences.

Impact of lockdown due to COVID-19 on nutrition and food security of the selected low-income households in Bangladesh

This study aims to explore the impact of COVID-19 pandemic lockdown on household food security and the nutritional status of the children and identify the risk factors associated with it. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 220 households having at least one under 5 children of Narayanganj district in Bangladesh. Household food insecurity, coping strategies and nutritional status of children were the main outcome variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the significant determinants. A total of 93.2 % of households were food insecure, with 32.3% experiencing mild, 18.6% facing moderate, and 42.3% undergoing severe food insecurity. Forty seven percent households used high coping strategies and 93.2% of households consumed less expensive/preferable food as the common coping technique. Logistic regression analysis showed the variables significantly associated with moderate to severe food insecurity were low household income before COVID-19 (AOR = 46.07, CI: 13.68–155.10), more reduction of family income (AOR = 32.47, 95% CI: 9.29–113.41), maternal occupation as housewife (AOR = 7.73, CI: 2.59–23.07), losses of job (AOR = 4.28, CI: 1.31–13.98) and higher family members (AOR = 3.39, CI: 1.07–10.71). The prevalence of stunting, underweight and wasting in children under 5 years of age were 29.0%, 23.4% and 15.6%, respectively. Significantly the independent predictors of stunting were maternal occupation, education, age, household head occupation, child age, and the coping strategy score. Household dietary diversity score was an important independent predictor of underweight and wasting. In conclusion, social safety net initiatives for vulnerable households along with maternal education and employment should be strengthened to reduce hunger and malnutrition.

Adaptive Implementation of a Community Nutrition and Asset Transfer Program during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Rural Bangladesh

Background

Reduced health and nutrition services as a result of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) measures endanger children's well-being. The Bangladesh Rajshahi Division of Maternal and Child Nutrition (BRDMCN; 2018-2020) involving social behavior change communication (SBCC) and an economic development (ED) of asset transfer was implemented.

Objectives

This study describes how the implementation modality of the BRDMCN was adapted, and changes in the program's short/intermediate-term outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with pre-pandemic.

Methods

The following evaluation components were assessed: 1) program fidelity, 2) program reach, 3) program acceptance, 4) perceived influence of COVID-19, and 5) short-term outcomes over the 3 y. We compared the first 2 y ("pre-COVID-19," from April 2018 through December 2019) and the final year ("during COVID-19," from January to December 2020) for all components except for (3) and (4). Data were collected through multiple sources: reviews of program annual progress reports, monitoring records of SBCC and ED programs, and cohort surveys (n = 1094).

Results

The percentage dose delivery of activities decreased from 66.7-118% at pre-COVID-19 to 0-90% during COVID-19. The SBCC programs were altered to reduce the frequency of activities as well as the number of participants per session. The ED program involving large group meetings was modified to include within-member meetings, individual visits of community facilitators, or virtual discussions. Production activity using received assets continued during the pandemic, with no significant reduction compared with pre-COVID-19. The percentage of children recovering from underweight after 30 d of a Positive deviance/Hearth (PD/Hearth) session, a component of the SBCC program, remained constant at 16.5-20.3 percentage points before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusions

Program activities were scaled back and changed due to the pandemic. The BRDMCN maintained asset management and the degree of short-term outcomes over the course of a 3-y project. Further study is required to determine whether adaptive program management would achieve the long-term expected impact at a population level.

Factors associated with household food insecurity and dietary diversity among day laborers amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh

Backgrounds

Food insecurity and dietary diversity remain a public health concern in developing countries like Bangladesh which is exacerbated by the COVID-19 especially for day laborers’ families in Bangladesh. This study aimed to determine factors associated with household food insecurity and household dietary diversity among day laborers during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted among 343 households of day laborers in Bangladesh using a semi-structured questionnaire. Household food security (HFS) and Household dietary diversity (HDD) scores were assessed using the HFS scale and household’s 24-h recall of intake of 12 food groups, respectively.

Results

The overall mean scores of HFS and HDD were 26.80 (SD, 4.83) and 4.08 (SD, 1.15). Having household head aged > 40 years and monthly household income > 5000 Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) were positively associated with HDD scores. Having an education level above secondary, monthly household income > 5000 BDT, and having a refrigerator were associated with the higher HFS scores, whereas having family members > 5 was a potential determinant of lower HFS scores. Pandemic-induced work loss and food scarcity were also potential determinants of lower HFS and HDD scores. Approximately 94% of respondents reported their wages were reduced, and 76% were deprived of the same quantity of food as pre-pandemic periods.

Conclusions

Lower socio-economic status and pandemic-induced work loss affect the HFS and HDD. Interventions with financial aid and complemented food distributions, particularly among the wage looser, may improve the HFS and HDD of day laborers.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40795-022-00517-8.

Food security, poverty and household resilience to COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: Evidence from urban small traders' households

Analyses of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security of urban households and their resilience are increasingly receiving scholarly interest. In Burkina Faso, urban households whose primary activity is trade were the most immediately impacted by COVID-19 due to the closure of markets. The objective of this research was to analyze the effect of income loss due to COVID-19 on food security and poverty among urban small traders' households by considering their resilience capacity. A survey was performed on 503 households of small traders operating in 5 markets in Ouagadougou. Objective and subjective indicators of food security were calculated, as well as several indices of resilience capacity. A simple logit model and ordered logit model were used for the socioeconomic analysis. Three main results emerge. First, COVID-19 has increased the likelihood of households being food insecure due to their lower food consumption scores. Second, estimates show that COVID-19 has reduced households' incomes by increasing their likelihood of entering poverty. Finally, at all levels of analysis, households with adaptive capacity were able to adjust to the shock, but social security was not a mitigating factor. Implications in terms of economic policies are discussed.

Household food insecurity and dietary diversity of women of reproductive age among smallholder farming households in northwest Bangladesh

Despite Bangladesh's remarkable progress in agricultural production over the past few decades, household food and nutrition insecurity persist, especially in rural areas. The nutrition security and dietary diversity are even more critical for women of reproductive age among smallholders. This study examined household food insecurity and dietary diversity of women of reproductive age in the rural areas of northwest Bangladesh. Using cross-sectional data collected from 252 smallholder households, we measured household food insecurity and dietary diversity of women of reproductive age by the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale and the Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women, respectively. Determinants of household food insecurity were examined, and associations between household food insecurity and low dietary diversity were determined. The majority of the households were mildly insecure (51.2%) followed by moderately insecure (27.4%). The households felt anxiety of food insecurity for more than six months a year (Food Security Index = 2.10 out of 4.00). The mean food group consumed by women was 4.63 indicating low dietary diversity and dominance of diets by grains and dark green leafy vegetables. The findings also indicate a significant and positive association between household food insecurity and low dietary diversity of women. Education of household heads, household size, access to information sources, access to credit support, and perceived impacts of climate change on crop production were identified as determinants of household food insecurity. The study recommends that appropriate interventions be formulated to improve the food and nutrition security in the study areas.

Change in nutritional status of urban slum children before and after the first COVID-19 wave in Bangladesh: A repeated cross-sectional assessment

The onset of COVID-19 severely disrupted economies and increased acute household food insecurity in developing countries. Consequently, a global rise in childhood undernutrition was predicted, especially among vulnerable populations, but primary evidence on actual changes in nutritional status remained scarce. In this paper, we assessed shifts in nutritional status of urban slum children in Bangladesh pre- and post- the country's first wave of COVID-19 and nationwide lockdown. We used two rounds of cross-sectional data collected before and after the pandemic's first year in two large slum settlements (Korail and Tongi) of Dhaka and Gazipur, Bangladesh (n = 1119). Regression models estimated pre-post changes in: 1) predictors of childhood undernutrition (household income, jobs, food security, dietary diversity, healthcare utilization, and hand hygiene); and 2) under-five children's nutritional status (average height-for-age z-score (HAZ) and weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), stunting, and wasting). Subgroup analysis was done by household migration status and slum area. Over the sample period, average monthly household income dropped 23% from BDT 20,740 to BDT 15,960 (β = -4.77; 95% CI:-6.40, -3.15), and currently employed fathers slightly declined from 99% to 95% (β = -0.04; 95% CI:-0.05, -0.02). Average HAZ among the slum children improved 0.13 SD (95% CI: 0.003, 0.26). Among non-migrant children in Tongi, the odds of stunting increased (OR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.16, 3.48) and average WHZ reduced -0.40 SD (95% CI: -0.74, -0.06). Despite great economic hardship, and differential patterns of representativeness by household geography and migration status, slum children in Bangladesh generally demonstrated resilience to nutritional decline over the first year of the pandemic. While underlying threats to nutritional deterioration persisted, considerable job and income recovery in the post-lockdown period appeared to have cushioned the overall decline. However, as the pandemic continues, monitoring and appropriate actions are needed to avert lasting setbacks to Bangladesh nutritional progress.

Nutrition and Food Security in Bangladesh: Achievements, Challenges, and Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Bangladesh has experienced remarkable transformation in demographic, health, and nutritional status of the population. The changes have exposed the population to a number of challenges, the detrimental effect of which on health and nutrition is likely to be increased by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We provide an overview of health and nutritional challenges in Bangladesh in relation to demographic transition and the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We identified and reviewed recent reports, published articles, and pertinent gray literature on nutrition and food security in Bangladesh to provide historical and contextual information.

RESULTS

The review identifies the progress as well as existing burden regarding nutrition and food security in Bangladesh and highlights the challenges in the coming days in regard to population growth and the COVID-19 pandemic. The country is on track to reduce all forms of childhood undernutrition, while the proportion of nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases is rising owing to changes in dietary intake, low physical activity, and sedentary lifestyle.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite remarkable progress, health and nutritional status of the population in Bangladesh faces challenges, particularly in relation to demographic transition and compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which require concerted attention from policymakers as well as stakeholders.

Differences in the early impact of COVID-19 on food security and livelihoods in rural and urban areas in the Asia Pacific Region

Lockdowns due to COVID-19 in early 2020 had health, economic, and social consequences globally. Using survey data collected as part of a rapid assessment among non-governmental organization- (NGO) supported communities in six Asia Pacific countries (n = 13,522), this study examined if the early impacts of COVID-19 on job loss or reduced income, food expenditure, food availability at households and markets, and affordability of essential items, differed between rural and urban areas. Job loss or reduced income was higher in urban areas than in rural areas in India (91.2% vs. 82.5%), Myanmar (72.0% vs. 48.6%), and Vietnam (76.5% vs. 44.9%). While there was a significant decline in food expenditure in all six countries, there were significantly larger reductions in food expenditures in urban areas versus rural areas in India (35.2% vs. 24.0%), Myanmar (30.8% vs. 8.5%), and Vietnam (31.0% vs. 2.3%). Food stocks were less available in urban areas than in rural areas in Bangladesh (18.8% vs. 37.8%), India (91.5% vs.76.0%), and Myanmar (72.0% vs. 59.0%). Foods and essential items were largely available at markets, without significant differences between rural and urban areas, except in Vietnam. Full affordability was only 20%-30% for most items, with a trend of higher affordability of some items in urban areas than in rural areas. Recommendations to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 include promoting urban agriculture with efficient food distribution and cash support and supporting small-holder farmers for procurement and adequate functioning of the supply chain system in the region.

Association of Household Food Insecurity with Nutritional Status and Mental Health of Pregnant Women in Rural Bangladesh

Food insecurity may affect women’s health; however, pertinent research is scant among pregnant women. This study investigated the association of household food insecurity (HFI) with the nutritional status and mental health of 672 early-gestation (5–16 weeks) pregnant women with a singleton fetus, who participated in the screening activity of a community-based trial (NCT04868669) in Matlab, Bangladesh. Height (cm), weight (kg), body mass index (kg/m²), mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) (cm), depression, anxiety, and stress were the outcomes studied. HFI was assessed using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale. Women’s depression, anxiety, and stress were assessed using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scales-21. Propensity score matching based weighted multivariable linear and logistic regression were used to evaluate the independent association of HFI with the outcomes. In adjusted models, pregnant women from food-insecure households in rural Matlab were on average 2.0 cm shorter (β = −2.0, 95% CI: −3.3, −0.7), 2.0 kg lighter (β = −2.0, 95% CI: −3.4, −0.7), and had 0.6 cm lower MUAC (β = −0.6, 95% CI: −1.1, −0.1) than their food-secure counterparts. HFI was associated with higher odds of depression (OR = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.8, 5.9), anxiety (OR = 6.1, 95% CI: 3.7, 10.0), and stress (OR = 4.8, 95% CI: 1.6, 14.2) among the women. Public health measures should focus on ensuring proper nutrition during the critical growth periods of life, pregnancy, and external environmental shocks, to mitigate the adverse effects of HFI on women’s health.

Impacts of COVID-19 induced food insecurity among informal migrants: Insight from Dhaka, Bangladesh

Food insecurity is one of the rising problems in Bangladesh, and it is severely prevalent among informal migrant workers. In this case, the COVID-19 pandemic has multiplied the food insecurity of informal migrant workers. This study explores and synthesizes the COVID-19 induced food insecurity impact among informal migrants and recommends policy actions to tackle the COVID-19 led food crisis in Bangladesh. A qualitative research approach, including in-depth interviews, four FGDs, and participant observation, has been applied to data collection from different parts of Dhaka city. A thematic approach to interpretive phenomenological analysis is followed in this study. The results show that COVID-19 induced lockdown significantly affects informal migrants' household food security. Most participants report severe complications due to food insecurity like consuming less food, price hiking, no fish or meat, potato, and vegetable. Food insecurity leads to migrant's chronic food shortage, starvation, malnutrition of mother and children, and unhealthy food. As a result, the way of life of informal migrants has been directed to more fragility and vulnerability during the pandemic; even they are not affordable to maintain a minimal level of family affairs and necessity. The findings of this study would be essential guidelines for the governmental and non-governmental organizations and development practitioners to address the food insecurity situations.

Prevalence and factors associated with food insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

We assessed the prevalence of food insecurity (FI) and its associated factors in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) early during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

We performed secondary data analysis of a survey conducted by Facebook and the University of Maryland. We included adults surveyed from April to May 2020. FI was measured by concerns about having enough to eat during the following week. Sociodemographic, mental health, and COVID-19-related variables were collected. We performed generalized Poisson regressions models considering the complex sampling design. We estimated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios with their 95% confidence intervals.

Results

We included 1,324,272 adults; 50.5% were female, 42.9% were under 35 years old, 78.9% lived in a city, and 18.6% had COVID-19 symptoms. The prevalence of food insecurity in LAC was 75.7% (n = 1,016,841), with Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Haiti with 90.8%, 86.7%, and 85.5%, respectively, showing the highest prevalence. Gender, area of residence, presence of COVID-19 symptoms, and fear of getting seriously ill or that a family member gets seriously ill from COVID-19 were associated with a higher prevalence of food insecurity. In contrast, increasing age was associated with a lower prevalence.

Conclusion

The prevalence of food insecurity during the first stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in LAC was high and was associated with sociodemographic and COVID-19-related variables.

Evaluation of a Social Media Campaign in Saskatchewan to Promote Healthy Eating During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Social Media Analysis and Qualitative Interview Study

BACKGROUND

The beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic presented many sudden challenges regarding food, including grocery shopping changes (eg, reduced store hours, capacity restrictions, and empty store shelves due to food hoarding), restaurant closures, the need to cook more at home, and closures of food access programs. Eat Well Saskatchewan (EWS) implemented a 16-week social media campaign, #eatwellcovid19, led by a dietitian and nutrition student that focused on sharing stories submitted by the Saskatchewan public about how they were eating healthy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to describe the implementation of the #eatwellcovid19 social media campaign and the results from the evaluation of the campaign, which included campaign performance using social media metrics and experiences and perspectives of campaign followers.

METHODS

Residents of Saskatchewan, Canada, were invited to submit personal stories and experiences to EWS about how they were eating healthy during the COVID-19 pandemic from April to August 2020. Each week, one to three stories were featured on EWS social media platforms-Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter-along with evidence-based nutrition information to help residents become more resilient to challenges related to food and nutrition experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals who submitted stories were entered into a weekly draw for a Can $100 grocery gift card. Social media metrics and semistructured qualitative interviews of campaign followers were used to evaluate the #eatwellcovid19 campaign.

RESULTS

In total, 75 stories were submitted by 74 individuals on a variety of topics (eg, grocery shopping, traditional skills, and gardening), and 42 stories were featured on social media. EWS shared 194 #eatwellcovid19 posts across social media platforms (Facebook: n=100; Instagram: n=55; and Twitter: n=39). On Facebook, #eatawellcovid19 reached 100,571 followers and left 128,818 impressions, resulting in 9575 engagements. On Instagram, the campaign reached 11,310 followers, made 14,145 impressions, and received 823 likes and 15 comments. On Twitter, #eatwellcovid19 made 15,199 impressions and received 424 engagements. Featured story submission posts had the best engagement on Facebook and the most likes and comments on Instagram. The EWS social media pages reported increases in their following during the campaign (Instagram: +30%; Facebook: +14%; and Twitter: +12%). Results from the interviews revealed that there were two types of campaign followers: those who appreciated hearing the stories submitted by followers, as it helped them to feel connected to the community during social isolation, and those who appreciated the evidence-based information.

CONCLUSIONS

Numerous stories were submitted to the #eatwellcovid19 social media campaign on various topics. On Instagram and Facebook, posts that featured these stories had the highest engagement. During this campaign, EWS's social media following increased by more than 10% on each platform. The approach used for the #eatwellcovid19 campaign could be considered by others looking to develop health promotion campaigns.

Food insecurity during COVID-19 pandemic: A genuine concern for people from disadvantaged community and low-income families in Province 2 of Nepal

BACKGROUND

Food insecurity is a serious social and public health problem which is exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic especially in resource-poor countries such as Nepal. However, there is a paucity of evidence at local levels. This study aims to explore food insecurity among people from the disadvantaged community and low-income families during the COVID-19 pandemic in Province-2 of Nepal.

METHODS

The semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted virtually among purposively selected participants (n = 41) from both urban and rural areas in eight districts of Province 2 in Nepal. All the interviews were conducted in the local language between July and August 2020. The data analysis was performed using thematic network analysis in Nvivo 12 Pro software.

RESULTS

The results of this study are grouped into four global themes: i) Impact of COVID-19 on food security; ii) Food insecurity and coping strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic, iii) Food relief and emergency support during the COVID-19 pandemic, and iv) Impact of COVID-19 and food insecurity on health and wellbeing. Most participants in the study expressed that families from low socioeconomic backgrounds and disadvantaged communities such as those working on daily wages and who rely on remittance had experienced increased food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants used different forms of coping strategies to meet their food requirements during the pandemic. Community members experienced favouritism, nepotism, and partiality from local politicians and authorities during the distribution of food relief. The food insecurity among low-income and disadvantaged families has affected their health and wellbeing making them increasingly vulnerable to the COVID-19 infection.

CONCLUSION

Food insecurity among low-income and disadvantaged families was found to be a serious problem during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study suggests that the relief support plan and policies should be focused on the implementation of immediate sustainable food security strategies to prevent hunger, malnutrition, and mental health problems among the most vulnerable groups in the community.

Impact of COVID-19 on household food insecurity and interlinkages with child feeding practices and coping strategies in Uttar Pradesh, India: a longitudinal community-based study

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has profound negative impacts on people's lives, but little is known on its effect on household food insecurity (HFI) in poor setting resources. This study assessed changes in HFI during the pandemic and examined the interlinkages between HFI with child feeding practices and coping strategies.

DESIGN

A longitudinal survey in December 2019 (in-person) and August 2020 (by phone).

SETTING

Community-based individuals from 26 blocks in 2 districts in Uttar Pradesh, India.

PARTICIPANTS

Mothers with children <2 years (n=569).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND ANALYSES

We measured HFI by using the HFI Access Scale and examined the changes in HFI during the pandemic using the Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank tests. We then assessed child feeding practices and coping strategies by HFI status using multivariable regression models.

RESULTS

HFI increased sharply from 21% in December 2019 to 80% in August 2020, with 62% households changing the status from food secure to insecure over this period. Children in newly or consistently food-insecure households were less likely to consume a diverse diet (adjusted OR, AOR 0.57, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.95 and AOR 0.51, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.12, respectively) compared with those in food-secure households. Households with consistent food insecurity were more likely to engage in coping strategies such as reducing other essential non-food expenditures (AOR 2.2, 95% CI 1.09 to 4.24), borrowing money to buy food (AOR 4.3, 95% CI 2.31 to 7.95) or selling jewellery (AOR 5.0, 95% CI 1.74 to 14.27) to obtain foods. Similar findings were observed for newly food-insecure households.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdown measures posed a significant risk to HFI which in turn had implications for child feeding practices and coping strategies. Our findings highlight the need for further investment in targeted social protection strategies and safety nets as part of multisectoral solutions to improve HFI during and after COVID-19.

Socio-Economic Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic in South Asia: Emerging Risks and Growing Challenges

The dramatic spread of COVID-19 has threatened human lives, disrupted livelihoods, and affected trade, economy and businesses across the globe. The global economy has begun to show major disruptions and is heading toward a severe recession with an unprecedented economic crisis. As the global economy is highly integrated and interdependent through the global supply chains, it has been profoundly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although all countries have faced difficulties due to Covid-19, South Asian countries in particular have had to deal with a more challenging situation due to their large population, weak health facilities, high poverty rates, low socio-economic conditions, poor social protection systems, limited access to water and sanitation, and inadequate living space, necessary to maintain physical distancing and take other required measures to contain this pandemic. To contain the spread of the virus, South Asian countries have imposed stringent lockdowns, which have consequently affected the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in the region, where a third of world's poor live. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the existing and prospective impacts, risks and challenges of Covid-19 on key social and economic sectors including migration, tourism, informal sector, agriculture and rural livelihoods. The analysis revealed that COVID-19 is likely to affect economic growth, increase fiscal deficit and monetary burden, increase the risks of macroeconomic instability, decrease migration and remittance, reduce income from travel and tourism, and result in dwindling micro-small and medium industries and informal businesses. This is likely to deepen poverty and increase unemployment and the risks of hunger and food insecurity. If not addressed properly, this may reinforce existing inequalities, break social harmony, and increase tension and turbulence. The economic and social costs of the COVID-19 outbreak are therefore likely to be significant and long-lasting in South Asia.