Trends and causes of adult mortality from 2007 to 2017 using verbal autopsy method, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Child, maternal, and adult mortality in rural Ethiopia in 2019: a cross-sectional mortality survey using electronic verbal autopsies

Background

Ethiopia, with about 10% of Africa's population, has little direct information on causes of death, particularly in rural areas where 80% of Ethiopians live. In 2019-2020, we conducted electronic verbal autopsies (e-VA) to examine causes of death and quantify cause-specific mortality rates in rural Ethiopia.

Methods

We examined deaths under 70 years in the three years prior to the survey dates (November 25, 2019-February 29, 2020) among 2% of East Gojjam Zone (Amhara Region) using registered deaths and adding random sampling in this cross-sectional study. Trained surveyors interviewed relatives of the deceased with central dual-physician assignment of causes as the main outcome. We documented details on age, sex and location of death, and derived overall rural death rates using 2007 Census data and the United Nations national estimates for 2019. To these, we applied our sample-weighted causes to derive cause-specific mortality rates. We calculated death risks for the leading causes for major age groups.

Findings

We studied 3516 deaths: 55% male, 97% rural, and 68% occurring at home. At ages 5 and older, injuries were notable, accounting for over a third of deaths at 5-14 years, half of the deaths at ages 15-29 years, and a quarter of deaths at ages 30-69 years. Neonatal mortality was high, mostly from prematurity/low birthweight and infections. Among children under 5 (excluding neonates), infections caused nearly two-thirds of deaths. Most maternal deaths (84%) arose from direct causes. After injuries, especially suicide, assaults, and road traffic accidents, vascular disease (15%) and cancer (13%) were the leading causes among adults at 30-69 years. HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis deaths were also important causes among adults.

Interpretation

Rural Ethiopia has a high burden of avoidable mortality, particularly injury, including suicide, assaults, and road traffic accidents.

Funding

International Development Research Centre, and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Socioeconomic inequality in knowledge about HIV/AIDS over time in Ethiopia: A population-based study

Socioeconomic inequality in comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS can hinder progress towards ending the epidemic threat of this disease. To address the knowledge gap, it is essential to investigate inequality in HIV/AIDS services. This study aimed to investigate socioeconomic inequality, identify contributors, and analyze the trends in inequality in comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS among adults in Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was conducted using 2005, 2011, and 2016 population-based health survey data. The sample size was 18,818 in 2005, 29,264 in 2011, and 27,261 in 2016. Socioeconomic inequality in comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS was quantified by using a concentration curve and index. Subsequently, the decomposition of the concentration index was conducted using generalised linear regression with a logit link function to quantify covariates' contribution to wealth-based inequality. The Erreygers' concentration index was 0.251, 0.239, and 0.201 in 2005, 2011, and 2016, respectively. Watching television (24.2%), household wealth rank (21.4%), ever having been tested for HIV (15.3%), and education status (14.3%) took the significant share of socioeconomic inequality. The percentage contribution of watching television increased from 4.3% in 2005 to 24.2% in 2016. The household wealth rank contribution increased from 14.6% in 2005 to 21.38% in 2016. Education status contribution decreased from 16.2% to 14.3%. The percentage contribution of listening to the radio decreased from 16.9% in 2005 to -2.4% in 2016. The percentage contribution of residence decreased from 7.8% in 2005 to -0.5% in 2016. This study shows comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS was concentrated among individuals with a higher socioeconomic status. Socioeconomic-related inequality in comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS is woven deeply in Ethiopia, though this disparity has been decreased minimally. A combination of individual and public health approaches entangled in a societal system are crucial remedies for the general population and disadvantaged groups. This requires comprehensive interventions according to the primary health care approach.

Cardiovascular disease mortality based on verbal autopsy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Objective

To conduct a systematic review of verbal autopsy studies in low- and middle-income countries to estimate the fraction of deaths due to cardiovascular disease.

Method

We searched MEDLINE®, Embase® and Scopus databases for verbal autopsy studies in low- and middle-income countries that reported deaths from cardiovascular disease. Two reviewers screened the studies, extracted data and assessed study quality. We calculated cause-specific mortality fractions for cardiovascular disease for each study, both overall and according to age, sex, geographical location and type of cardiovascular disease.

Findings

We identified 42 studies for inclusion in the review. Overall, the cardiovascular disease cause-specific mortality fractions for people aged 15 years and above was 22.9%. This fraction was generally higher for males (24.7%) than females (20.9%), but the pattern varied across World Health Organization regions. The highest cardiovascular disease mortality fraction was reported in the Western Pacific Region (26.3%), followed by the South-East Asia Region (24.1%) and the African Region (12.7%). The cardiovascular disease mortality fraction was higher in urban than rural populations in all regions, except the South-East Asia Region. The mortality fraction for ischaemic heart disease (12.3%) was higher than that for stroke (8.7%). Overall, 69.4% of cardiovascular disease deaths were reported in people aged 65 years and above.

Conclusion

The burden of cardiovascular disease deaths outside health-care settings in low- and middle-income countries is substantial. Increasing coverage of verbal autopsies in these countries could help fill gaps in cardiovascular disease mortality data and improve monitoring of national, regional and global health goals.

Survival status and predictors of mortality among adult Stroke patients admitted to Jimma University Medical Center, South west Ethiopia: A retrospective Cohort study

Background

Stroke is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease death in sub-Saharan Africa and the second leading cause of mortality worldwide. In 2016, 6.23% of all fatalities in Ethiopia were stroke-related.

Objective

To assess survival status and predictors of mortality among adult stroke patients admitted to Jimma University Medical Center from April 1/2017 to March 31/2022.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 480 adult stroke patients selected by simple random sampling from patients admitted to the Jimma University Medical Center Stroke Unit from April 1, 2017 to March 31, 2022. Data were extracted from May to June 2022 and entered Epi-data v.3.1 and analyzed by R v.4.2. The Kaplan-Meier curve with Log rank test was used to estimate survival time and to compare survival experience between categories of explanatory variables. The Cox regression model was computed to identify predictors of survival status in stroke patients. Then the 95% CI of the hazard ratio was set with corresponding p-value < 0.05 to declare statistical significance.

Results

During 4350 person-days of follow-up; 88 (18.33%) patients died; resulting in an incidence mortality of 20.23 per 1000 person-days, with a median survival time of 38 days. Glasgow coma score <8 on admission (AHR = 7.71; 95% CI: 3.78, 15.69), dyslipidemia (AHR = 3.96; 95% CI: 2.04, 7.69), aspiration pneumonia (AHR 2.30; 95% CI: 1.23-4.26), and increased intracranial pressure (AHR = 4.27; 95% CI: 2.33, 7.81), were the independent predictors of the time until death.

Conclusion

The incidence of stroke mortality was higher at the seven and fourteen days. Glasgow Coma Scale, increased intracranial pressure, dyslipidemia, and aspiration pneumonia were independent predictors of mortality.

Patterns of Non-Communicable Disease, Multimorbidity, and Population Awareness in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objective

Ethiopia, like other developing countries, is going through an epidemiological transition, and high rates of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are having a significant impact on the health system; however, there is limited evidence about community level NCD prevalence, multimorbidity, and population awareness that could inform targeted interventions and policy responses. This study aimed to identify factors associated with NCD prevalence, multimorbidity, and population awareness of NCDs in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted with 417 randomly sampled adults. We performed descriptive and logistic regression analyses to evaluate associations between NCD prevalence (cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, chronic kidney disease, and hypertension) multimorbidity (2 or more NCDs) and demographic, socioeconomic, individual risk factors, anthropometrics, knowledge, and attitude.

Results

This study reveals that 24% of participating adults have an NCD, and 8% have multimorbidity. One-third (34.5%) have some NCD knowledge, and 75% consider NCDs more dangerous than communicable diseases. We find low NCD prevalence in participants: younger than 40 years of age (AOR 0.17, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.39); with normal body mass index (AOR 0.27, 0.10 to 0.77) and; with a family history of NCD (AOR 7.7, 4.2 to 14.1). Multimorbidity is lower in young adults (AOR 0.08, 0.03 to 0.26). NCD knowledge is higher in men (AOR 1.76, 1.06 to 2.93) and employed adults (AOR 2.91, 1.52 to 5.57), and NCD attitude in normal-weight adults (AOR 3.23, 1.42 to 7.39).

Conclusion

This study reveals a high prevalence of NCD and overall low NCD awareness in the population. Age above 40 years, family history of NCD, and weight in the obese category are significant predictors of NCD prevalence. These findings can help health professionals, health offices, and concerned stakeholders to plan targeted health interventions to reduce NCDs in the population.

The trend and pattern of adult mortality in South-Central Ethiopia: analysis using the 2008-2019 data from Butajira Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Understanding context-specific temporal trends in mortality is essential for setting health policy priorities.

Objective

To investigate the trends and distribution of deaths due to communicable and non-communicable diseases and external causes in South-Central Ethiopia.

Method

All adult deaths captured by the Butajira Health and Demographic Surveillance System between January 2008 and December 2019 were included. A verbal autopsy method of collecting cause of death data was used. Physician review and a computerised algorithm, InterVA, were used to determine the cause of death. Coding was undertaken using the World Health Organization's International Classification of Diseases. Trends in adult mortality rate and proportional mortality were estimated by major cause of death categories. Significant trends were analysed using the Mann–Kendall statistical test with a significance set at P < 0.05. Deaths were also disaggregated by age, sex, and residence.

Results

There were 1,612 deaths in 279,681 person-years; 811 (50.3%) were females. The median age at death was 65 years. The proportional adult mortality and adult mortality rates (per 1000 person-years) attributed to communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, and external causes were 31.1%, 58.9%, and 6.0%, and 1.9, 3.4, and 0.4, respectively. Adult mortality due to communicable diseases showed a declining trend (tau, the measure of the strength and direction of association, = −0.52; P < 0.05), whereas the trend increased for non-communicable diseases (tau = 0.67, P < 0.05) and external causes (tau = 0.29, P > 0.05). Moreover, death rates were pronounced in the 65+ age group and rural areas but comparable among males and females.

Conclusion

The trend in deaths due to communicable diseases declined but increased for non-communicable diseases and external causes with significant public health burdens. These findings will provide essential input in formulating health policy reforms to reduce premature mortality.

Addressing discrepancies in estimates of road traffic deaths and injuries in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

There are large discrepancies between official statistics of traffic injuries in African countries and estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and WHO's Global Status Reports on Road Safety (GSRRS). We sought to assess the magnitude of the discrepancy in Ethiopia, its implications and how it can be addressed.

METHODS

We systematically searched for nationally representative epidemiological data sources for road traffic injuries and vehicle ownership in Ethiopia and compared estimates with those from GBD and GSRRS.

FINDINGS

GBD and GSRRS estimates vary substantially across revisions and across projects. GSRRS-2018 estimates of deaths (27 326 in 2016) are more than three times GBD-2019 estimates (8718), and these estimates have non-overlapping uncertainty ranges. GSRRS estimates align well with the 2016 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS-2016; 27 838 deaths, 95th CI: 15 938 to 39 738). Official statistics are much lower (5118 deaths in 2018) than all estimates. GBD-2019 estimates of serious non-fatal injuries are consistent with DHS-2016 estimates (106 050 injuries, 95th CI: 81 728 to 130 372) and older estimates from the 2003 World Health Survey. Data from five surveys confirm that vehicle ownership levels in Ethiopia are much lower than in other countries in the region.

INTERPRETATION

Inclusion of data from national health surveys in GBD and GSRRS can help reduce discrepancies in estimates of deaths and support their use in highlighting under-reporting in official statistics and advocating for better prioritisation of road safety in the national policy agenda. GBD methods for estimating serious non-fatal injuries should be strengthened to allow monitoring progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target 3.6.

Pattern and Trends in Adult Hospitalization/Admission and Mortality Among Medical Ward Inpatients at Gadarif Hospital in Eastern Sudan: A Four-Year Retrospective Study

Purpose

Sub-Saharan Africa suffers from a dual impact of communicable (CDs) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). There is scarce data on causes, trends of admission, and deaths among patients in Sudan. We aimed to determine the causes, trends of admission, and mortality among adult patients admitted to Gadarif Hospital in Eastern Sudan.

Patients and Methods

The medical records of adult patients admitted to Gadarif medical wards from January 2017 to December 2020 were reviewed for age, gender, causes of admission, and outcomes. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to analysis factors (age, sex, years, and disease) associated with the mortality.

Results

Of the 7230 patients who were admitted, 2221 (34.7%) were females and 5009 (69.3%) were males. The median age (interquartile range, IQR) was 47.0 (35.0) years. Of these 7230 patients, 3167 (43.8%) and 4063 (56.2%) patients were admitted with CDs and NCDs, respectively. Cardiovascular diseases (18.4%), snakebites (12.9%), and visceral leishmaniasis (12.0%) were the most common causes of admission. The overall in-patient adult deaths were 674 (9.3%). Cardiovascular diseases (22.3%), neurological diseases (16.9%), sepsis (15.9%), renal diseases (13.9%), and snakebites (8.3%) were the most common causes of inpatient mortality. Malignancy (20.7%), sepsis (20.9%), neurological diseases (17.4%), and cardiovascular diseases (13.8%) comprised the highest case fatality rates among the admitted patients. Using a Cox regression model (adjusted), age (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.02, 95% confidence interval = 1.01‒1.03) was associated with increased mortality hazard. However, the gender and years of admission were not associated with increased mortality hazard.

Conclusion

Admissions and mortality rates for CDs and NCDs are high compared with other African countries. Preventive measures are required to avert the high burden of these diseases. Health care systems in Sudan need to be prepared to deal with the dual burden of the diseases.