Estimation of tuberculosis incidence at subnational level using three methods to monitor progress towards ending TB in India, 2015-2020

Ensuring universal access to quality care for persons with presumed tuberculosis reaching the private sector: lessons from Kerala

BACKGROUND

More than half of the people with Tuberculosis (TB) symptoms in India seek care from the private sector. People with TB getting treatment from private sector in India are considered to be at a higher risk for receiving suboptimal quality of care in terms of incorrect diagnosis and treatment, lack of treatment adherence support with a high loss to follow-up rate that could eventually increase their risk of drug resistance. The current study aims at documenting the approach and efforts taken by the Kerala state to partner with the private health care delivery providers for ensuring quality TB care to the people with presumed TB reaching them.

METHODS

A case study approach was adopted with review of all available literature followed by five Key Informant Interviews to understand the case through a primary descriptive exploration. Grounded theory approach was used to generating the single theory of the case itself that explains it.

RESULTS

Kerala state has taken a variety of interventions to ensure universal access to TB care for citizens reaching the private sector with documented improvement in the quality of TB care. Key learnings from these initiatives were (i) patients need to be at the centre of partnerships, (ii) good governance is essential for ensuring Universal Health Coverage in a mixed health system, (iii) data intelligence is required to guide partnerships, (iv) identification of the correct 'problems' is crucial for effective design of partnerships and (v) a platform for meaningful dialogue of key stakeholders is needed.

CONCLUSION

Kerala experience demonstrated that if governments take a proactive role in engaging the private sector, in an informed and evidence-based way, they can leverage the advantages of the private sector while protecting the public health interest.

Predictors for Concurrent Diabetes in Tuberculosis Patients. Perspectives from Two Mining Districts of Eastern Tribal State Jharkhand, in India

Background

Tuberculosis and diabetes both diseases are present in large numbers in the country and we are major contributors to both globally. With the objective to understand the various traits of patients having both tuberculosis and diabetes and to ascertain various possible predictors for such occurrence based on the public health database we carried out this study. We seek answers to questions like they have any effects? Are they having any additive role to play?

Methods

One-year data from the NIKSHAY portal of both districts were analyzed to look for possible associations and other variable traits. Data were analyzed using standard methods to express data in frequency and percentage. Chi-square test was used to establish association, while step-wise approach was used to calculate univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis for knowing various predictors. P-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Concurrent diabetes in tuberculosis patients was close to 294 (6%) in the 4933 individuals. In total, 65.2% of the study population were male. Diagnosis of tuberculosis was made most of the time by chest X-ray (49.4%) followed by Microscopy ZN staining and cartridge-based nucleic acid amplification test (CBNAAT). Death was more among diabetics (4.4%) as compared to nondiabetics (3.5%).

Conclusion

Diabetes is increasing in tuberculosis patients; improvement in data quality is needed. More research is required to reveal various other reasons that make tuberculosis patients more prone to develop diabetes.

The Predicted Potential Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Epidemic in Tamil Nadu, South India

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence and incidence of TB before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Tamil Nadu, south India.

METHODS

In the present study, the effect of COVID-19 epidemiology on the TB epidemic was assessed by the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered), a compartmental epidemiological model. The model input parameters on compartments of TB and incidence of COVID-19 were collected from the published literature. Based on the data collected, point prevalence and incidence of TB per 100,000 population is calculated with and without COVID-19. A prediction was conducted up to 2025, trend analysis was performed, and a trend chi-square test and chi-square test of independence were used to test the difference between the prevalence with and without COVID-19. R software 2000 (R 4.0.0) was used for analysis.

RESULTS

The TB prevalence without and with COVID-19 decreases from 289 in 2020 to 271 in 2025 and from 289 in 2020 to 269 in 2025, respectively. Similarly, the incidence of TB was decreasing from 144 in 2020 to 135 in 2025 without COVID-19 and 143 in 2020 to 134 in 2025 with COVID-19. Though the TB burden is decreasing over the years, the trend was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). With respect to the district level, the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19 is also found to be decreasing over the years. It was also found that the difference in the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19 was not statically significant.

CONCLUSION

The results of our study shows that there was an annual decline of around 2% from 2020 to 2025 in the trend of the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19. Overall, there is a reduction, but it was not significant, and there is no significant effect of COVID-19 on TB in Tamil Nadu.

Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio

Progress towards the 2030 End TB goals has seen severe setbacks due to disruptions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. For governments and international partner organizations supporting the global TB response, there is a need to assess what level of effort is now needed to reach these goals. Using mathematical modelling, we addressed this question for the countries being supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). We aggregated the 24 countries in the USAID portfolio into three geographical country groups: South Asia; sub-Saharan Africa; and Central Asian Republics/Europe (CAR/EU). From 2023 onwards we modelled a combination of interventions acting at different stages of the care cascade, including improved diagnostics; reducing the patient care seeking delay; and the rollout of a disease-preventing vaccine from 2025 onwards. We found that in all three country groups, meeting the End TB goals by 2030 will require a combination of interventions acting at stages of the TB care cascade. Specific priorities may depend on country settings, for example with public-private mix playing an important role in countries in South Asia and elsewhere. When a vaccine becomes available, its required coverage to meet the 2030 goals will vary by setting, depending on the amount of preventive therapy that has already been implemented. Monitoring the number-needed-to-test to identify 1 person with TB in community settings can provide a useful measure of progress towards the End TB goals.

Revitalizing primary care is the key to people's health in the post-COVID era

Growing evidence shows that primary care-oriented systems achieve better health outcomes, more health equity, and lower costs. Despite this strong evidence, such care has been chronically underfunded. If a council focused on primary care had existed during the height of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it could have helped rapidly mobilize primary care to address vaccine equity and shore up public health, particularly in rural and historically marginalized urban communities. We believe an infrastructure investment plan should include oversight, tools, and resources for rebuilding primary care. Researchers have tried to compare the number of deaths due to "neglected tropical diseases" and that due to COVID - total deaths in the former cases are greater than COVID deaths. We should take into consideration a few issues: (a) distinction between health (as a human right) and health care (as commodity), (b) "clinical health" and "public health," (3) primary health care (as the backbone of public health) as well as community-based horizontal program NOT to be replaced by selective primary health care or GOBI or any disease-centered vertical program.

Estimating the Burden of Tuberculosis in India: A Modelling Study

Background

Measurements TB incidence and mortality are crucial for monitoring progress towards SDG goals for TB. Until recently, WHO estimated TB burden in India with applied simple, transparent equilibrium models to data from Gujarat, an Indian state where the first state-level prevalence survey was conducted in 2011. However, since then there has been several interventions in India including national TB prevalence survey, infection survey, sub-national survey & certification which gives opportunity for national and sub-national estimates for TB incidence and mortality.

Methods

We developed a model is a compartmental, deterministic framework, taking account of TB natural history, as well as India's healthcare system including health care seeking from public and private sector. To address changes in TB burden owing to COVID disruptions, we followed same model that used by WHO in the global TB Report 2022 with additional impact of delta wave in 2021. Major sources of data included National TB Prevalence survey, trends in caseloads in public and private sector including their contribution and mortality information.

Results

We estimated total TB incidence of 2.77 million in the year 2022 as against 2.97 in the year 2015 and corresponding TB mortality of 0.32 and 0.36 million respectively. In terms of rate per 1,00,000 TB incidence in 2022 was 196 as compared to 225 in the year 2015 and mortality was 23 and 27 respectively. TB incidence estimates are similar to what was estimated by WHO, while mortality estimates appear different in our estimates due to different calibration targets depending on in-country published data.

Conclusion

Even if TB burden is infeasible to measure directly, a range of data can nonetheless offer indirect evidence for its estimation: mathematical modelling can be a helpful tool for bringing together these diverse sources of evidence, and deriving estimates that are consistent with them all. While the RGI reported mortality is an important source of information, its quality and coverage for medically certified cause of deaths requires improvement in India.