A simple AGED score for risk classification of primary liver cancer: development and validation with long-term prospective HBsAg-positive cohorts in Qidong, China

Comparison of models to predict incident chronic liver disease: a systematic review and external validation in Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models can identify individuals at high risk of chronic liver disease (CLD), but there is limited evidence on the performance of various models in diverse populations. We aimed to systematically review CLD prediction models, meta-analyze their performance, and externally validate them in 0.5 million Chinese adults in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB).

METHODS

Models were identified through a systematic review and categorized by the target population and outcomes (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC] and CLD). The performance of models to predict 10-year risk of CLD was assessed by discrimination (C-index) and calibration (observed vs predicted probabilies).

RESULTS

The systematic review identified 57 articles and 114 models (28.4% undergone external validation), including 13 eligible for validation in CKB. Models with high discrimination (C-index ≥ 0.70) in CKB were as follows: (1) general population: Li-2018 and Wen 1-2012 for HCC, CLivD score (non-lab and lab) and dAAR for CLD; (2) hepatitis B virus (HBV) infected individuals: Cao-2021 for HCC and CAP-B for CLD. In CKB, all models tended to overestimate the risk (O:E ratio 0.55-0.94). In meta-analysis, we further identified models with high discrimination: (1) general population (C-index ≥ 0.70): Sinn-2020, Wen 2-2012, and Wen 3-2012 for HCC, and FIB-4 and Forns for CLD; (2) HBV infected individuals (C-index ≥ 0.80): RWS-HCC and REACH-B IIa for HCC and GAG-HCC for HCC and CLD.

CONCLUSIONS

Several models showed good discrimination and calibration in external validation, indicating their potential feasibility for risk stratification in population-based screening programs for CLD in Chinese adults.

Hepatitis B Virus Knowledge and HBV-Related Surveillance Status Among HBsAg-Positive Patients in Qidong City: A Rural-Based Cross-Sectional Survey

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate hepatitis B knowledge and hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related surveillance status among HBsAg-positive patients, as well as to further explore the relevant influencing factors.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted on the HBsAg-positive patients from 8 October 2023 to 10 November 2023 in Qidong City. A self-report questionnaire was developed based on a literature review of similar studies. Univariate analysis of variance, multivariate logistic regression, and t-test analysis were conducted to analyze the collected data.

RESULTS

Of the 982 respondents who completed the on-site questionnaire, all participants were HBsAg-positive patients. Moreover, 51.32% had "good" knowledge of HBV. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that participants with a doctor in the family, those with an average monthly income above CNY 3000, and those with an average monthly income of CNY 1500-3000 were more likely to obtain a "good" cognitive evaluation (p < 0.001). The scores of the populations using HBV-related surveillance methods were low (2.02 ± 0.87); 64.87% (637/982) of the populations monitored had a score of no more than 2.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that the awareness of HBV prevention and treatment among participants, especially those of low-income classes and individuals lacking physician clinical management, should be promoted to increase the dissemination of HBV knowledge.

Disease modifiers and novel markers in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is responsible for 40% of the global burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a high case fatality rate. The risk of HCC differs among CHB subjects owing to differences in host and viral factors. Modifiable risk factors include viral load, use of antiviral therapy, co-infection with other hepatotropic viruses, concomitant metabolic dysfunctionassociated steatotic liver disease or diabetes mellitus, environmental exposure, and medication use. Detecting HCC at early stage improves survival, and current practice recommends HCC surveillance among individuals with cirrhosis, family history of HCC, or above an age cut-off. Ultrasonography with or without serum alpha feto-protein (AFP) every 6 months is widely accepted strategy for HCC surveillance. Novel tumor-specific markers, when combined with AFP, improve diagnostic accuracy than AFP alone to detect HCC at an early stage. To predict the risk of HCC, a number of clinical risk scores have been developed but none of them are clinically implemented nor endorsed by clinical practice guidelines. Biomarkers that reflect viral transcriptional activity and degree of liver fibrosis can potentially stratify the risk of HCC, especially among subjects who are already on antiviral therapy. Ongoing exploration of these novel biomarkers is required to confirm their performance characteristics, replicability and practicability.

The perioperative experience and needs of hepatocellular carcinoma patients in interventional therapy: a phenomenological qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate the perioperative experience and needs of patients with liver cancer for interventional therapy, in order to provide the basis for further improving a patient's medical experience and satisfaction.

METHODS

A semi-structured in-depth interview was conducted for 16 patients with liver cancer in interventional therapy using the phenomenological research method of qualitative research. The themes were analyzed, summarized, refined and extracted using the Colaizzi analytical procedure.

RESULTS

The study results revealed that the perioperative experience and needs of patients with liver cancer for interventional therapy could mainly be summarized into seven themes: anxiety, fear and helplessness; not understanding the specific procedures of interventional therapy; worrying that the disease would not be treated as expected; lack of understanding of perioperative adverse reactions and the inability to cope with these; concern on the financial burden of health care costs on families; concerned on the physical and mental health of the dependent; the further improvement of diagnosis and treatment procedures.

CONCLUSION

Patients with liver cancer undergo a complex psychological experience during interventional therapy. In clinical practice, a patient's psychological needs and changes should be valued, in order to provide a targeted psychological intervention, health guidance and social support, thereby improving the medical experience and satisfaction of patients.

Risk Factors and Comorbidities Associated With Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES

Chronic hepatitis B virus infection (CHBVI) is a major public health problem affecting about 296 million people worldwide. HBV infects the liver, and when it becomes chronic, may cause cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of our study was to identify the risk factors and comorbid medical conditions that were associated with HCC in patients who had CHBVI.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective electronic medical record review of adult patients diagnosed with CHBVI, who presented to our primary care office between October 1, 2017 and October 21, 2022. Selected variables in patients with CHBVI with HCC (HCC group) were compared to those without HCC (NoHCC group).

RESULTS

Among 125 patients with CHBVI, 24% had HCC and 76% did not have HCC. There were higher frequencies of association of certain comorbidities in the HCC group compared to NoHCC group, such as anemia (63.3% vs 26.3%; P < .001), ascites (53.3% vs 1.1%; P < .001), portal hypertension (43.3% vs 0.0%; P < .001), chronic kidney disease (40.0% vs 13.7%; P = .002), and HCV coinfection (13.3% vs 7.4%; P < .001). The logistic regression model showed increased odds of HCC for each year of increase in age (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.01-1.11; P = .014), and increased odds in men (OR = 5.96, 95% CI = 1.71-20.73; P = .005). Although Asians represented the racial majority in both the groups, there was no significant difference in the race distribution between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

In patients with CHBVI, increasing age and male sex are factors associated with increased odds of having HCC. Patients with CHBVI and HCC have higher frequencies of association of tobacco use, recreational drug use, anemia, ascites, portal hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and co-infection with HCV.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores from Modeling to Real Clinical Practice in Areas Highly Endemic for Hepatitis B Infection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers and represents a global health challenge. Liver cancer ranks third in cancer-related mortality with 830,000 deaths and sixth in incidence with 906,000 new cases annually worldwide. HCC most commonly occurs in patients with underlying liver disease, especially chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in highly endemic areas. Predicting HCC risk based on scoring models for patients with chronic liver disease is a simple, effective strategy for identifying and stratifying patients to improve the early diagnosis rate and prognosis of HCC. We examined 23 HCC risk scores published worldwide in CHB patients with (n=10) or without (n=13) antiviral treatment. We also described the characteristics of the risk score's predictive performance and application status. In the future, higher predictive accuracy could be achieved by combining novel technologies and machine learning algorithms to develop and update HCC risk score models and integrated early warning and diagnosis systems for HCC in hospitals and communities.

Risk-stratified approach by aMAP score for community population infected with hepatitis B and C to guide subsequent liver cancer screening practice: A cohort study with 10-year follow-up

The aim of this study was to determine whether the age-Male-ALBI-Platelet (aMAP) score is applicable in community settings and how to maximise its role in risk stratification. A total of thousand five hundred and three participants had an aMAP score calculated at baseline and were followed up for about 10 years to obtain information on liver cancer incidence and death. After assessing the ability of aMAP to predict liver cancer incidence and death in terms of differentiation and calibration, the optimal risk stratification threshold of the aMAP score was explored, based on absolute and relative risks. The aMAP score achieved higher area under curves (AUCs) (almost all above 0.8) within 10 years and exhibited a better calibration within 5 years. Regarding absolute risk, the risk of incidence of and death from liver cancer showed a rapid increase after an aMAP score of 55. The cumulative incidence (5-year: 8.3% vs. 1.3% and 10-year: 20.9% vs. 3.6%) and mortality (5-year: 6.7% vs. 1.1% and 10-year: 17.5% vs. 3.1%) of liver cancer in individuals with an aMAP score of ≥55 were significantly higher than in those with a score of <55 (Grey's test p  < .001). In terms of relative risk, the risk of death from liver cancer surpassed that from other causes after an aMAP score of ≥55 [HR = 1.38(1.02-1.87)]. Notably, the two types of death risk had opposite trends between the subpopulation with an aMAP score of ≥55 and < 55. To conclude, this study showed the value of the aMAP score in community settings and recommends using 55 as a new risk stratification threshold to guide subsequent liver cancer screening.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

The Value of Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Enhancement in the Differential Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Combined Hepatocellular Cholangiocarinoma

Background

The distinction between combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-CC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) before the operation has an important clinical significance for optimizing the treatment plan and predicting the prognosis of patients. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been widely used in the preoperative diagnosis and evaluation of primary liver malignant tumors.

Purpose

The aim is to study the value of preoperative clinical data and enhanced MRI in the differential diagnosis of HCC and cHCC-CC and obtain independent risk factors for predicting cHCC-CC. Study type. Retrospective. Population. The clinical and imaging data of 157 HCC and 59 cHCC-CC patients confirmed by pathology were collected. Field Strength/Sequence. 1.5T; cross-sectional T1WI (gradient double echo sequence); cross-sectional T2WI (fast spin echo sequence, fat suppression); enhancement (3D LAVA technology). Assessment. The differences between the HCC and cHCC-CC patients were compared. Statistic Tests. Using the t-test, chi-square test, and logistic regression analysis, P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Result

1. CHCC-CC was more likely to show multiple lesions than HCC (28.81% vs. 10.83%, P = 0.001) and more prone to microvascular invasion (MVI) (36.31% vs. 61.02%, P < 0.001). However, HCC had a higher incidence of liver cirrhosis than cHCC-CC (50.85% vs. 72.61%, P = 0.003). 2. The incidence of nonsmooth margin was higher in the cHCC-CC group (84.75% vs. 52.23%, P < 0.001). The incidence of peritumor enhancement in the arterial phase was higher in the cHCC-CC group (11.46% vs. 62.71%, P < 0.001) 3. According to the multivariate analysis, arterial peritumor enhancement (OR = 8.833,95%CI:4.033,19.346, P < 0.001) was an independent risk factor for cHCC-CC (P < 0.001)). It had high sensitivity (62.71%) and specificity (88.54%) in the diagnosis of cHCC-CC. Date Conclusions. Liver cirrhosis and the imaging findings of GD-DTPA-enhanced MRI are helpful for the differential diagnosis of HCC and cHCC-CC. In addition, the imaging sign of peritumoral enhancement in the arterial phase has high sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of cHCC-CC.

Hepatitis B Virus-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is DNA-based virus, member of the Hepadnaviridae family, which can cause liver disease and increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in infected individuals, replicating within the hepatocytes and interacting with several cellular proteins. Chronic hepatitis B can progressively lead to liver cirrhosis, which is an independent risk factor for HCC. Complications as liver decompensation or HCC impact the survival of HBV patients and concurrent HDV infection worsens the disease. The available data provide evidence that HBV infection is associated with the risk of developing HCC with or without an underlying liver cirrhosis, due to various direct and indirect mechanisms promoting hepatocarcinogenesis. The molecular profile of HBV-HCC is extensively and continuously under study, and it is the result of altered molecular pathways, which modify the microenvironment and lead to DNA damage. HBV produces the protein HBx, which has a central role in the oncogenetic process. Furthermore, the molecular profile of HBV-HCC was recently discerned from that of HDV-HCC, despite the obligatory dependence of HDV on HBV. Proper management of the underlying HBV-related liver disease is fundamental, including HCC surveillance, viral suppression, and application of adequate predictive models. When HBV-HCC occurs, liver function and HCC characteristics guide the physician among treatment strategies but always considering the viral etiology in the treatment choice.

A risk scoring system to predict clinical events in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: A nationwide cohort study

Many patients with chronic hepatitis B do not receive adequate follow-up. This study aimed to develop a risk score to predict clinical events in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection at the population level for identifying patients at high risk to warrant regular follow-up. This study analysed population-based data from the nationwide claims database of South Korea obtained between 2005 and 2015. We identified 507,239 non-cirrhotic patients with chronic HBV infection who are not under antiviral treatment. A risk score for predicting clinical events (hepatocellular carcinoma, death or liver transplantation) was developed based on multivariable Cox proportional hazard model in a development cohort (n = 401,745) and validated in a validation cohort (n = 105,494). The cumulative incidence rates of clinical events at 5 years were 2.56% and 2.44% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Clinical events in asymptomatic patients with chronic HBV infection (CAP-B) score ranging from 0 to 7.5 points based on age, sex, socioeconomic status, chronic hepatitis C co-infection, diabetes mellitus, statin or antiplatelet exposure, smoking, alcohol consumption, alanine aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyltransferase had good discriminatory accuracy in both the development and validation cohorts (c-indices for 3-, 5- and 10-year risk prediction: all 0.786). The predicted and observed probabilities of clinical events were calibrated in both cohorts. A score of >3.5 points identified subjects at distinctly high risk. The CAP-B score using easily accessible variables can predict clinical events and may allow selection of patients with chronic HBV infection for priority of regular follow-up.

A Primary Screening Method for Liver Cancer in Chronic Hepatitis B Carriers: A Prospective Community-Based Cohort Study

Background

Patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) were invited to receive ultrasound and alpha-protein examination directly in China. However, not all HBV carriers need to be subjected to further tests. This study aimed to develop a feasible primary screening method to narrow down potential high-risk individuals of liver cancer among populations with HBV.

Methods

Based on a prospective community-based cohort, potential risk factors were selected as the predictors, including age, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, liver cancer family history, liver diseases in mothers, source of water, body mass index (BMI), and psychological trauma. Cox proportional regression model was applied to predict the 3-year absolute risk of liver cancer and derive risk scores. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration plot were used to assess the performance of the model. Bootstrap resampling was used for internal validation.

Results

Age, sex, BMI, alcohol consumption, liver diseases in mothers, and psychological trauma were independent risks of liver cancer. The 1- to 3-year AUROC of the prediction model was 71.15% (95% CI, 66.88–75.42), 71.16% (95% CI, 67.42–74.90), and 72.95% (95% CI, 64.20–81.70), respectively. The predicted risk was calibrated well with the observed liver cancer risk. Bootstrap resampling showed that C-index was 0.70 (0.67–0.74). A 32-point risk score was also developed and a score over 5 was identified for patients at extremely high risk.

Conclusions

A user-friendly primary screening method was created that could estimate the 3-year absolute risk of liver cancer and identify extremely high-risk individuals among the population with HBV.

Comparison of Interferon-α-based therapy and nucleos(t)ide analogs in preventing adverse outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Whether interferon (IFN)-α therapy is better than nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) in the prevention of adverse outcomes, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is still uncertain or controversial. This study aimed to compare the cumulative incidence of adverse outcomes in patients with CHB on IFN-α- and NA-based therapies.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of patients with CHB on antivirals. Patients treated with IFN-α (IFN-α or peginterferon-α) with or without NAs were defined as the IFN-α group, and those only receiving NAs were defined as the NAs group. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to minimize baseline bias. Cox regression models were performed to select possible factors related to adverse outcomes development.

RESULTS

All 1247 patients were divided into the IFN-α (n = 877) and NAs (n = 370) groups. 26patients (20 and 6 in the NAs and IFN-α groups) developed adverse outcomes (decompensated cirrhosis, liver failure, HCC, liver transplantation and deaths) during a median follow-up of 5.2 years. The cumulative adverse outcomes occurrence at 10 years was significantly lower in the IFN-α group than in the NAs group in all (1.1% vs. 11.9%, P <0.001) and treatment-naïve (1.1% vs. 12.4%, P <0.001) patients. Similar trends were observed after PSM and differentiation of cirrhosis. Multivariate analysis before and after PSM showed that IFN-α-based treatment was independently associated with a lower adverse outcomes incidence (before/after PSM: P = 0.001/P = 0.002). HCC risk stratification analyses revealed that the superiority of IFN-α in preventing HCC was more significant in patients with high-risk HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

IFN-α-based therapy was superior to NAs in preventing adverse outcomes in patients with CHB regardless of cirrhosis, and in reducing HCC in those with a high risk of HCC.

The best predictive model for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B infection

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) seriously threatens human health. About 820,000 deaths annually are due to related complications such as hepatitis B and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, the use of oral antiviral agents has significantly improved the prognosis of patients with CHB infection and reduced the risk of HCC. However, hepatitis B virus still remains a major factor in the development of HCC, raising many concerns. Therefore, numerous studies have been conducted to assess the risk of HCC in patients with CHB infection and many models have been proposed to predict the risk of developing HCC. However, as each study has different models for predicting HCC development that can be applied depending on the use of antiviral agents or the type of antiviral agents, it is necessary to properly understand characteristics of each model when using it for the evaluation of HCC in patients with CHB infection. In addition, because different variables such as host factor, viral activity, and cirrhosis are used to evaluate the risk of HCC development, it is necessary to assess the risk by carefully verifying which variables are used. Recently, studies have also evaluated the risk of HCC using risk prediction models through transient elastography and artificial intelligence (AI) system. These HCC risk predication models are also noteworthy. In this review, we aimed to compare HCC risk prediction models in patients with CHB infection reported to date to confirm variables used and specificity between each model to determine an appropriate HCC risk prediction method.

Risk factors associated with early childhood caries among Wenzhou preschool children in China: a prospective, observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Early childhood caries (ECC) is a serious health public problem that affects a large proportion of children in China. This study aimed to assess risk factors for the incidence of ECC among Wenzhou (China) preschoolers.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational cohort study.

SETTING

Kindergartens (n=6) in Wenzhou, China.

PARTICIPANTS

606 children who were 3-4 years of age and newly arrived in the kindergartens in September 2011.

METHODS

This was a longitudinal observational study with a 2-year follow-up of preschoolers of 3-4 years of age in Wenzhou (Southeast China). Oral health data were collected annually after the baseline survey. The risk factors associated with visible caries and increment of decayed, missing and filled teeth (dmft) were analysed through univariable and multivariable regression using generalised estimating equations.

RESULTS

The prevalence of ECC was increasing during the follow-up period (59.8% at enrolment, 71.8% at first year, and 76.4% at second year). Older age (b=0.07; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.09; p<0.001), caregivers (relatives or nannies) (b=-1.20; 95% CI: -2.23 to -0.16; p=0.023), lower annual family income (¥10 000-¥20 000: b=2.04; 95% CI: 1.04 to 3.04; p<0.001; <¥10 000: b=1.78; 95% CI: 0.65 to 2.92; p=0.002) and more frequent consumption of sugary snacks/drinks at night (sometimes: b=0.88; 95% CI: 0.20 to 1.56; p=0.011; always: b=1.19; 95% CI: 0.13 to 2.25; p=0.028) were independently associated with the increments of dmft. Older age (OR=1.04, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.05, p<0.001) and more frequent consumption of sweet snacks (OR=1.86, 95% CI: 1.06 to 3.27; p=0.030) were independently associated with a higher risk of visible caries.

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence and severity of ECC were associated with older age, caregivers (relatives or nannies), lower annual family income and more frequent consumption of sweet snacks. It is imperative to strengthen oral health education for parents and limit sugary foods/snacks.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic viral hepatitis: Is it time to personalize it?

Surveillance with abdominal ultrasound with or without alpha-fetoprotein is recommended by clinical practice guidelines for patients who are considered to be at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), including those with cirrhosis, advanced fibrosis and special subgroups of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Application of the standard surveillance strategy to all patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) with or without cirrhosis imposes major sustainability and economic burdens on healthcare systems. Thus, a number of HCC risk scores were constructed, mainly from Asian cohorts, to stratify the HCC prediction in patients with CHB. Similarly, even if less than for CHB, a few scoring systems were developed for chronic hepatitis C patients or cirrhotic patients with CLD of different etiologies. Recently, a few newsworthy HCC-risk algorithms were developed for patients with cirrhosis using the combination of serologic HCC markers and clinical parameters. Overall, the HCC risk stratification appears at hand by several validated multiple score systems, but their optimal performance is obtained only in populations who show highly homogenous clinic-pathologic, epidemiologic, etiologic and therapeutic characteristics and this limitation poses a major drawback to their sustainable use in clinical practice. A better understanding of the dynamic process driving the progression from CLD to HCC derived from studies based on molecular approaches and genetics, epigenetics and liquid biopsy will enable the identification of new biomarkers to define the individual risk of HCC in the near future, with the possibility to achieve a real and cost/effective personalization of surveillance.

Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is a significant risk factor for developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As HCC is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, screening patients with CHB at a high risk for HCC is recommended in an attempt to improve these outcomes. However, the screening recommendations on who to screen and how often are not uniform. Identifying patients at the highest risk of HCC would allow for the best use of health resources. In this review, we evaluate the literature on screening patients with CHB for HCC, strategies for optimizing adherence to screening, and potential risk stratification tools to identify patients with CHB at a high risk of developing HCC.

Prediction models for development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health problem in Asian-Pacific regions. Antiviral therapy reduces, but does not completely prevent, HCC development. Thus, there is a need for accurate risk prediction to assist prognostication and decisions on the need for antiviral therapy and HCC surveillance. A few risk scores have been developed to predict the occurrence of HCC in CHB patients. Initially, the scores were derived from untreated CHB patients. With the development and extensive clinical application of nucleos(t)ide analog(s) (NA), the number of risk scores based on treated CHB patients has increased gradually. The components included in risk scores may be categorized into host factors and hepatitis B virus factors. Hepatitis activities, hepatitis B virus factors, and even liver fibrosis or cirrhosis are relatively controlled by antiviral therapy. Therefore, variables that are more dynamic during antiviral therapy have since been included in risk scores. However, host factors are more difficult to modify. Most existing scores derived from Asian populations have been confirmed to be accurate in predicting HCC development in CHB patients from Asia, while these scores have not offered excellent predictability in Caucasian patients. These findings support that more relevant variables should be considered to provide individualized predictions that are easily applied to CHB patients of different ethnicities. CHB patients should receive different intensities of HCC surveillance according to their risk category.

A male-ABCD algorithm for hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction in HBsAg carriers

Objective

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carriers shows gender disparity, influenced by underlying liver diseases that display variations in laboratory tests. We aimed to construct a risk-stratified HCC prediction model for HBsAg-positive male adults.

Methods

HBsAg-positive males of 35−69 years old (N=6,153) were included from a multi-center population-based liver cancer screening study. Randomly, three centers were set as training, the other three centers as validation. Within 2 years since initiation, we administrated at least two rounds of HCC screening using B-ultrasonography and α-fetoprotein (AFP). We used logistic regression models to determine potential risk factors, built and examined the operating characteristics of a point-based algorithm for HCC risk prediction.

Results

With 2 years of follow-up, 302 HCC cases were diagnosed. A male-ABCD algorithm was constructed including participant’s age, blood levels of GGT (γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase), counts of platelets, white cells, concentration of DCP (des-γ-carboxy-prothrombin) and AFP, with scores ranging from 0 to 18.3. The area under receiver operating characteristic was 0.91 (0.90−0.93), larger than existing models. At 1.5 points of risk score, 26.10% of the participants in training cohort and 14.94% in validation cohort were recognized at low risk, with sensitivity of identifying HCC remained 100%. At 2.5 points, 46.51% of the participants in training cohort and 33.68% in validation cohort were recognized at low risk with 99.06% and 97.78% of sensitivity, respectively. At 4.5 points, only 20.86% of participants in training cohort and 23.73% in validation cohort were recognized at high risk, with positive prediction value of 22.85% and 12.35%, respectively.

Conclusions

Male-ABCD algorithm identified individual’s risk for HCC occurrence within short term for their HCC precision surveillance.

East Asia expert opinion on treatment initiation for chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Globally, chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a major public health concern. Timely and effective management can prevent disease progression to cirrhosis and reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Currently, there is no consensus on the clinical management of CHB in East Asia.

AIM

To establish an East Asia expert opinion on treatment initiation for CHB based on alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level, hepatitis B virus (HBV) deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) level, cirrhosis and HCC risk scores.

METHODS

A meeting was held online with a panel of 10 experts from East Asia to discuss ALT, HBV DNA, cirrhosis and HCC risk scores. Indications for CHB treatment in the latest international guidelines were reviewed. Consensus was summarised to provide recommendations on the initiation of treatment for CHB.

RESULTS

Anti-viral therapy is recommended for CHB patients with (a) HBV DNA ≥ 2000 IU/mL and ALT ≥ 1× upper limit of normal (ULN); (b) HBV DNA ≥ 2000 IU/mL, ALT < 1× ULN and ≥ F2 fibrosis and/or ≥ A2 necroinflammation occurs; (c) cirrhosis and detectable HBV DNA; or (d) HBV DNA ≥ 2000 IU/mL, ALT < 1× ULN and a family history of cirrhosis or HCC, extrahepatic manifestations or age > 40 years. Patients with cirrhosis and/or HCC should be treated regardless of ALT levels if HBV DNA level is detectable. Initiating anti-viral therapy or close monitoring at 3-month intervals is recommended for CHB patients with at least two HCC risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

These expert recommendations will contribute to a new standard of daily clinical practice in East Asia.

Elevated double-strand break repair protein RAD50 predicts poor prognosis in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma: A study based on Chinese high-risk cohorts

Objective: Increasing evidence indicates that RAD50, which is involved in the repair process of DNA double-strand break (DSB), is also involved in cancer outcomes. However, its role in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear. This study was designed to investigate the expression of RAD50 and its prognostic value in HBV-related HCC patients.

Methods: 107 and 100 patients with HBV-related HCC from the Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Medical University of Nationalities (AHYMUN) and the Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University (AHNU), respectively, were enrolled in the study. The distribution of the categorical clinical-pathological data and the levels of RAD50 expression were compared with a χ² test. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining of RAD50 was performed. A partial likelihood test based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was developed to address the influence of independent factors on disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The Oncomine online database was used to analyse and validate the differential expression of RAD50. The Kaplan-Meier method and a log-rank test were performed to assess the influence of RAD50 on survival at different levels.

Results: RAD50 was highly expressed in HCC tissues compared to normal tissues and was significantly correlated with OS in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort. The validation analysis indicated that significantly increased levels of RAD50 were expressed in HCC tissues in the two independent cohorts. In addition, HCC patients with elevated RAD50 expression levels showed poor OS and DFS in the AHYMUN cohort and decreased OS and DFS in the AHNTU cohort.

Conclusion: In conclusion, our study reveals that elevated RAD50 expression is significantly correlated with cancer progression and poor survival in HBV-related HCC patients. These data suggest that RAD50 may act as an oncogene and may serve as a promising target for the therapy of HBV-related HCC patients.

Clinical utility of hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Several risk scores have been recently developed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. We systematically assessed the performance of the available HCC risk scores.

METHODS

Literature search was performed to identify all published studies reporting development or external validation of HCC risk scores in CHB patients.

RESULTS

Until March 2019, 12 scores were developed in untreated Asian and 7 scores in treated Asian (n = 6) or Caucasian (n = 1) patients. All scores provided significant predictions for HCC development in the derivation and validation cohorts of their original studies (c-statistic: 0.76-0.95) and usually classified patients into low, medium and high HCC risk groups. Eleven independent studies and three studies developing their own scores have validated externally some scores in Asian (GAG-HCC:5, CU-HCC:6, REACH-B:6, REACH-Bm:4, LSM-HCC:3, PAGE-B:5) or Caucasian/mixed origin patients (GAG-HCC:4, CU-HCC:4, REACH-B:4, PAGE-B:2). All scores offered acceptable predictability in almost all independent Asian cohorts (c-statistic: 0.70-0.86), but only PAGE-B and recently modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) offered good predictability in all independent Caucasian and/or Asian cohorts. Negative predictive values for 5-year HCC prediction were ≤99% (95%-99%) in most independent cohorts assessing Asian risk scores and 99%-100% in all independent cohorts (Caucasian/mixed origin:2; Asian:3) assessing PAGE-B and/or recently mPAGE-B.

CONCLUSIONS

Direct comparison of the newest HCC risk scores in independent patient cohorts of different origin remains intriguing, although statistical associations may not be directly transferable to clinical practice. PAGE-B and recently mPAGE-B score seem to offer persistently high predictability for Caucasian and/or Asian treated patients with low HCC risk who require no surveillance.

Pathological Pattern of Intrahepatic HBV in HCC is Phenocopied by PDX-Derived Mice: a Novel Model for Antiviral Treatment

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is one of the most prominent risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development and virus-mediated cases represents more than 80% of HCC in East Asia, where it is endemic. Currently, the HBV status of pathological HCC is not fully clarified, especially by comparison to nontumorous tissues. Lack of clinicopathological animal models of HCC impedes clinical application of antiviral treatment in the field.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cohort sample of 14 HCC and corresponding stroma tissues were analyzed for pathological patterns of HBV antigens using immunohistochemistry; 10 fresh primary tumor tissues were inoculated into NOD/SCID mice and risk factors for patient-derived xenograft (PDX) model were identified by the univariate F test. Consistency of HBV features and cellular biomarkers between patient tissues and tumor grafts were examined.

RESULTS

In HCC, HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) was mainly absent. Only 9.9% of samples showed HBsAg positivity in the tumor tissue that was limited to benign hepatocytes. In contrast, HBV core antigen (HBcAg) exhibited positive staining in all HCC tissues, located mainly in the cytoplasm of tumor cells. Of 14 HCC cases, three were diagnosed as occult infection of HBV based on HBcAg expression. The successful rate for the PDX model was 20% (2/10). Tumor lesions on hepatic lobes of V and VI, severe liver dysfunction and higher CA125 showed p-values of 0.01, 0.035, and 0.01, respectively. HBsAg absence in original tumors of #6 and 8 patients were faithfully reproduced by engraftments. Mixed distribution of HBcAg in cellular compartments of original tumor cells was also observed in mice. ki67 was dramatically increased in tumor grafts.

CONCLUSION

We delineated pathological HBV profiles of HCC specimens and perilesional areas, which provided evidence for virus-based therapy in the future. PDX mice may phenocopy virological and cellular features of patient tissues, which is novel in the virus-related hepatocarcinogenesis field.