Histopathologist features predictive of diagnostic concordance at expert level among a large international sample of pathologists diagnosing Barrett's dysplasia using digital pathology

Deep Learning for Histopathological Assessment of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Precursor Lesions

Histopathological assessment of esophageal biopsies is a key part in the management of patients with Barrett esophagus (BE) but prone to observer variability and reliable diagnostic methods are needed. Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a powerful tool for aided diagnosis but often relies on abstract test and validation sets while real-world behavior is unknown. In this study, we developed a 2-stage AI system for histopathological assessment of BE-related dysplasia using deep learning to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the pathology workflow. The AI system was developed and trained on 290 whole-slide images (WSIs) that were annotated at glandular and tissue levels. The system was designed to identify individual glands, grade dysplasia, and assign a WSI-level diagnosis. The proposed method was evaluated by comparing the performance of our AI system with that of a large international and heterogeneous group of 55 gastrointestinal pathologists assessing 55 digitized biopsies spanning the complete spectrum of BE-related dysplasia. The AI system correctly graded 76.4% of the WSIs, surpassing the performance of 53 out of the 55 participating pathologists. Furthermore, the receiver-operating characteristic analysis showed that the system's ability to predict the absence (nondysplastic BE) versus the presence of any dysplasia was with an area under the curve of 0.94 and a sensitivity of 0.92 at a specificity of 0.94. These findings demonstrate that this AI system has the potential to assist pathologists in assessment of BE-related dysplasia. The system's outputs could provide a reliable and consistent secondary diagnosis in challenging cases or be used for triaging low-risk nondysplastic biopsies, thereby reducing the workload of pathologists and increasing throughput.

The Aberrant Expression of Biomarkers and Risk Prediction for Neoplastic Changes in Barrett's Esophagus-Dysplasia

Background: Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a pre-neoplastic condition associated with an increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). The accurate diagnosis of BE and grading of dysplasia can help to optimize the management of patients with BE. However, BE may be missed and the accurate grading of dysplasia based on a routine histology has a considerable intra- and interobserver variability. Thus, well-defined biomarker testing remains indispensable. The aim of our study was to identify routinely applicable and relatively specific biomarkers for an accurate diagnosis of BE, as well as determining biomarkers to predict the risk of progression in BE-dysplasia. Methods: Retrospectively, we performed immunohistochemistry to test mucin 2(MUC2), trefoil factor 3 (TFF3), p53, p16, cyclin D1, Ki-67, beta-catenin, and minichromosome maintenance (MCM2) in biopsies. Prospectively, to identify chromosomal alterations, we conducted fluorescent in situ hybridization testing on fresh brush samples collected at the time of endoscopy surveillance. Results: We discovered that MUC2 and TFF3 are specific markers for the diagnosis of BE. Aberrant expression, including the loss and strong overexpression of p53, Ki-67, p16, beta-catenin, cyclin D1, and MCM2, was significantly associated with low-grade dysplasia (LGD), high-grade dysplasia (HGD), and EAC histology, with a relatively high risk of neoplastic changes. Furthermore, the aberrant expressions of p53 and p16 in BE-indefinite dysplasia (IND) progressor cohorts predicted the risk of progression. Conclusions: Assessing the biomarkers would be a suitable adjunct to accurate BE histology diagnoses and improve the accuracy of BE-dysplasia grading, thus reducing interobserver variability, particularly of LGD and risk prediction.

Histopathological Assessment of the Endoscopic Resection Specimen

Background

Endoscopic resection for early neoplastic lesions of the gastrointestinal tract is nowadays the accepted and feasible method also in non-tertiary reference centers. The main clinical advantage is the preserved quality of life compared to larger surgical procedures.

Summary

Clinical colleagues need to have basic knowledge of factors that may influence the outcome of histopathology. This article discusses issues connected to the histopathological work-up of endoscopic resection specimens within in the gastrointestinal tract.

Key Messages

Besides the clinical technical prerequisites, standardized histopathology is the key element of the pathology laboratory work-up of endoscopic resection specimens. Overdiagnoses of reactive lesions as low-grade neoplasia lead to incomparable study data and although criteria to overcome this situation exist, they are not accepted worldwide, calling for further efforts in harmonization.

Adjunctive Use of Wide-Area Transepithelial Sampling-3D in Patients With Symptomatic Gastroesophageal Reflux Increases Detection of Barrett's Esophagus and Dysplasia

INTRODUCTION

Patients with gastroesophageal reflux (GERD) symptoms undergoing screening upper endoscopy for Barrett's esophagus (BE) frequently demonstrate columnar-lined epithelium, with forceps biopsies (FBs) failing to yield intestinal metaplasia (IM). Repeat endoscopy is then often necessary to confirm a BE diagnosis. The aim of this study was to assess the yield of IM leading to a diagnosis of BE by the addition of wide-area transepithelial sampling (WATS-3D) to FB in the screening of patients with GERD.

METHODS

We performed a prospective registry study of patients with GERD undergoing screening upper endoscopy. Patients had both WATS-3D and FB. Patients were classified by their Z line appearance: regular, irregular (<1 cm columnar-lined epithelium), possible short-segment BE (1 to <3 cm), and possible long-segment BE (≥3 cm). Demographics, IM yield, and dysplasia yield were calculated. Adjunctive yield was defined as cases identified by WATS-3D not detected by FB, divided by cases detected by FB. Clinicians were asked if WATS-3D results affected patient management.

RESULTS

Of 23,933 patients, 6,829 (28.5%) met endoscopic criteria for BE. Of these, 2,878 (42.1%) had IM identified by either FB or WATS-3D. Among patients fulfilling endoscopic criteria for BE, the adjunctive yield of WATS-3D was 76.5% and absolute yield was 18.1%. One thousand three hundred seventeen patients (19.3%) who fulfilled endoscopic BE criteria had IM detected solely by WATS-3D. Of 240 patients with dysplasia, 107 (44.6%) were found solely by WATS-3D. Among patients with positive WATS-3D but negative FB, the care plan changed in 90.7%.

DISCUSSION

The addition of WATS-3D to FB in patients with GERD being screened for BE resulted in confirmation of BE in an additional one-fifth of patients. Furthermore, dysplasia diagnoses approximately doubled.

Poor Diagnostic Reproducibility in the Identification of Nonconventional Dysplasia in Colitis Impacts the Application of Histologic Stratification Tools

Due to their increased cancer risk, patients with longstanding inflammatory bowel disease are offered endoscopic surveillance with concomitant histopathologic assessments, aimed at identifying dysplasia as a precursor lesion of colitis-associated colorectal cancer. However, this strategy is beset with difficulties and limitations. Recently, a novel classification criterion for colitis-associated low-grade dysplasia has been proposed, and an association between nonconventional dysplasia and progression was reported, suggesting the possibility of histology-based stratification of patients with colitis-associated lesions. Here, a cohort of colitis-associated lesions was assessed by a panel of 6 experienced pathologists to test the applicability of the published classification criteria and try and validate the association between nonconventional dysplasia and progression. While confirming the presence of different morphologic patterns of colitis-associated dysplasia, the study demonstrated difficulties concerning diagnostic reproducibility between pathologists and was unable to validate the association of nonconventional dysplasia with cancer progression. Our study highlights the overall difficulty of using histologic assessment of precursor lesions for cancer risk prediction in inflammatory bowel disease patients and suggests the need for a different diagnostic strategy that can objectively identify high-risk phenotypes.

Dedicated service for Barrett's oesophagus surveillance endoscopy yields higher dysplasia detection and guideline adherence in a non-tertiary setting in the UK: a 5-year comparative cohort study

Objective

Barrett's oesophagus (BO) endoscopic surveillance is performed to varying quality, dedicated services may offer improved outcomes. This study compares a dedicated BO service to standard care, specifically dysplasia detection rate (DDR), guideline adherence and use of advanced imaging modalities in a non-tertiary setting.

Design/method

5-year retrospective comparative cohort study comparing a dedicated BO endoscopy service with surveillance performed on non-dedicated slots at a non-tertiary centre in the UK. All adult patients undergoing BO surveillance between 1 March 2016 and 1 March 2021 were reviewed and those who underwent endoscopy on a dedicated BO service run by endoscopists with training in BO was compared with patients receiving their BO surveillance on any other endoscopy list. Endoscopy reports, histology results and clinic letters were reviewed for DDR and British society of gastroenterology guideline adherence.

Results

921 BO procedures were included (678 patients). 574 (62%) endoscopies were on a dedicated BO list vs 348 (38%) on non-dedicated.DDR was significantly higher in the dedicated cohort 6.3% (36/568) vs 2.7% (9/337) (p=0.014). Significance was sustained when cases with indefinite for dysplasia were excluded: 4.9% 27/533 vs 0.9% 3/329 (p=0.002). Guideline adherence was significantly better on the dedicated endoscopy lists.Factors associated with dysplasia detection in regression analysis included visible lesion documentation (p=0.036), use of targeted biopsies (p=<0.001), number of biopsies obtained (p≤0.001).

Conclusions

A dedicated Barrett's service showed higher DDR and guideline adherence than standard care and may be beneficial pending randomised trial data.

Barrett's oesophagus with indefinite for dysplasia shows high rates of prevalent and incident neoplasia in a UK multicentre cohort

AIMS

Barrett's oesophagus with indefinite for dysplasia (IDD) carries a risk of prevalent and incident dysplasia and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. This study seeks to determine the risk of neoplasia in a multicentre prospective IDD cohort, along with determining adherence to British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) guidelines for management and histology reporting.

METHODS

This was a cohort study using prospectively collected data from pathology databases from two centres in the North West of England (UK). Cases with IDD were identified over a 10-year period. Data were obtained on patient demographics, Barrett's endoscopy findings and histology, outcomes and histological reporting.

RESULTS

102 biopsies with IDD diagnosis in 88 patients were identified. Endoscopy was repeated in 78/88 (88%) patients. 12/78 progressed to low-grade dysplasia (15% or 2.6 per 100 person years), 6/78 (7.7%, 1.3 per 100 person years) progressed to high-grade dysplasia and 6/78 (7.7%, 1.3 per 100 person years) progressed to oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The overall incidence rate for progression to any type of dysplasia was 5.1 per 100 person years. Cox regression analysis identified longer Barrett's segment, multifocal and persistent IDD as predictors of progression to dysplasia. Histology reporting did not meet 100% adherence to the BSG histology reporting minimum dataset prior to or after the introduction of the guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

IDD carries significant risk of progression to dysplasia or neoplasia. Therefore, careful diagnosis and management aided by clear histological reporting of these cases is required to diagnose prevalent and incident neoplasia.

Diagnosis and management of Barrett esophagus: European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Guideline

MR1 : ESGE recommends the following standards for Barrett esophagus (BE) surveillance:- a minimum of 1-minute inspection time per cm of BE length during a surveillance endoscopy- photodocumentation of landmarks, the BE segment including one picture per cm of BE length, and the esophagogastric junction in retroflexed position, and any visible lesions- use of the Prague and (for visible lesions) Paris classification- collection of biopsies from all visible abnormalities (if present), followed by random four-quadrant biopsies for every 2-cm BE length.Strong recommendation, weak quality of evidence. MR2:  ESGE suggests varying surveillance intervals for different BE lengths. For BE with a maximum extent of ≥ 1 cm and < 3 cm, BE surveillance should be repeated every 5 years. For BE with a maximum extent of ≥ 3 cm and < 10 cm, the interval for endoscopic surveillance should be 3 years. Patients with BE with a maximum extent of ≥ 10 cm should be referred to a BE expert center for surveillance endoscopies. For patients with an irregular Z-line/columnar-lined esophagus of < 1 cm, no routine biopsies or endoscopic surveillance are advised.Weak recommendation, low quality of evidence. MR3:  ESGE suggests that, if a patient has reached 75 years of age at the time of the last surveillance endoscopy and/or the patient's life expectancy is less than 5 years, the discontinuation of further surveillance endoscopies can be considered. Weak recommendation, very low quality of evidence. MR4:  ESGE recommends offering endoscopic eradication therapy using ablation to patients with BE and low grade dysplasia (LGD) on at least two separate endoscopies, both confirmed by a second experienced pathologist.Strong recommendation, high level of evidence. MR5:  ESGE recommends endoscopic ablation treatment for BE with confirmed high grade dysplasia (HGD) without visible lesions, to prevent progression to invasive cancer.Strong recommendation, high level of evidence. MR6:  ESGE recommends offering complete eradication of all remaining Barrett epithelium by ablation after endoscopic resection of visible abnormalities containing any degree of dysplasia or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC).Strong recommendation, moderate quality of evidence. MR7:  ESGE recommends endoscopic resection as curative treatment for T1a Barrett's cancer with well/moderate differentiation and no signs of lymphovascular invasion.Strong recommendation, high level of evidence. MR8:  ESGE suggests that low risk submucosal (T1b) EAC (i. e. submucosal invasion depth ≤ 500 µm AND no [lympho]vascular invasion AND no poor tumor differentiation) can be treated by endoscopic resection, provided that adequate follow-up with gastroscopy, endoscopic ultrasound (EUS), and computed tomography (CT)/positrion emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) is performed in expert centers.Weak recommendation, low quality of evidence. MR9:  ESGE suggests that submucosal (T1b) esophageal adenocarcinoma with deep submucosal invasion (tumor invasion > 500 µm into the submucosa), and/or (lympho)vascular invasion, and/or a poor tumor differentiation should be considered high risk. Complete staging and consideration of additional treatments (chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy and/or surgery) or strict endoscopic follow-up should be undertaken on an individual basis in a multidisciplinary discussion.Strong recommendation, low quality of evidence. MR10 A: ESGE recommends that the first endoscopic follow-up after successful endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) of BE is performed in an expert center.Strong recommendation, very low quality of evidence. B:  ESGE recommends careful inspection of the neo-squamocolumnar junction and neo-squamous epithelium with high definition white-light endoscopy and virtual chromoendoscopy during post-EET surveillance, to detect recurrent dysplasia.Strong recommendation, very low level of evidence. C:  ESGE recommends against routine four-quadrant biopsies of neo-squamous epithelium after successful EET of BE.Strong recommendation, low level of evidence. D:  ESGE suggests, after successful EET, obtaining four-quadrant random biopsies just distal to a normal-appearing neo-squamocolumnar junction to detect dysplasia in the absence of visible lesions.Weak recommendation, low level of evidence. E:  ESGE recommends targeted biopsies are obtained where there is a suspicion of recurrent BE in the tubular esophagus, or where there are visible lesions suspicious for dysplasia.Strong recommendation, very low level of evidence. MR11:  After successful EET, ESGE recommends the following surveillance intervals:- For patients with a baseline diagnosis of HGD or EAC:at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 10 years after last treatment, after which surveillance may be stopped.- For patients with a baseline diagnosis of LGD:at 1, 3, and 5 years after last treatment, after which surveillance may be stopped.Strong recommendation, low quality of evidence.

Real-world implementation of non-endoscopic triage testing for Barrett's oesophagus during COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) curtailed endoscopy services, adding to diagnostic backlogs. Building on trial evidence for a non-endoscopic oesophageal cell collection device coupled with biomarkers (Cytosponge), an implementation pilot was launched for patients on waiting lists for reflux and Barrett's oesophagus surveillance.

AIMS

(i) To review reflux referral patterns and Barrett's surveillance practices. (ii) To evaluate the range of Cytosponge findings and impact on endoscopy services.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Cytosponge data from centralized laboratory processing (trefoil factor 3 (TFF3) for intestinal metaplasia (IM), haematoxylin & eosin for cellular atypia and p53 for dysplasia) over a 2-year period were included.

RESULTS

A total of 10 577 procedures were performed in 61 hospitals in England and Scotland, of which 92.5% (N = 9784/10 577) were sufficient for analysis. In the reflux cohort (N = 4074 with gastro-oesophageal junction sampling), 14.7% had one or more positive biomarkers (TFF3: 13.6% (N = 550/4056), p53: 0.5% (21/3974), atypia: 1.5% (N = 63/4071)), requiring endoscopy. Among samples from individuals undergoing Barrett's surveillance (N = 5710 with sufficient gland groups), TFF3-positivity increased with segment length (odds ratio = 1.37 per cm (95% confidence interval: 1.33-1.41, P < 0.001)). Some surveillance referrals (21.5%, N = 1175/5471) had ≤1 cm segment length, of which 65.9% (707/1073) were TFF3 negative. Of all surveillance procedures, 8.3% had dysplastic biomarkers (4.0% (N = 225/5630) for p53 and 7.6% (N = 430/5694) for atypia), increasing to 11.8% (N = 420/3552) in TFF3+ cases with confirmed IM and 19.7% (N = 58/294) in ultra-long segments.

CONCLUSIONS

Cytosponge-biomarker tests enabled targeting of endoscopy services to higher-risk individuals, whereas those with TFF3 negative ultra-short segments could be reconsidered regarding their Barrett's oesophagus status and surveillance requirements. Long-term follow-up will be important in these cohorts.

Role of artificial intelligence in Barrett’s esophagus

The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in gastrointestinal endoscopy has gained significant traction over the last decade. One of the more recent applications of AI in this field includes the detection of dysplasia and cancer in Barrett’s esophagus (BE). AI using deep learning methods has shown promise as an adjunct to the endoscopist in detecting dysplasia and cancer. Apart from visual detection and diagnosis, AI may also aid in reducing the considerable interobserver variability in identifying and distinguishing dysplasia on whole slide images from digitized BE histology slides. This review aims to provide a comprehensive summary of the key studies thus far as well as providing an insight into the future role of AI in Barrett’s esophagus.

Degree of crypt atypia correlates with progression to high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus

AIMS

Patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus (BE) often show a wide range of 'atypical' histological features in the bases of the crypts. However, the significance of crypt atypia has never been evaluated, despite prior studies showing the presence of DNA content and other molecular abnormalities in this epithelium. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the degree of crypt atypia in BE patients without dysplasia correlates with progression to high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma (HGD/EAC).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Baseline biopsies from 114 BE patients without dysplasia, 57 who progressed to HGD/EAC (progressors) and 57 who did not progress (non-progressors), were included in the study. Biopsies were evaluated for the degree of basal crypt atypia on a three-point scale according to discrete histological criteria. In non-progressors, 64.9, 31.6 and 3.5% of biopsies had a crypt atypia score of 1, 2 and 3, respectively, with a mean score of 1.39 ± 0.56. The percentage of biopsies with an atypia score of 2 or 3 increased in progressors [42.1, 42.1 and 15.8% of biopsies scored 1, 2 or 3, respectively, with a mean score of 1.74 ± 0.72 (P = 0.004)]. The odds ratio of grade 3 crypt atypia for progression to HGD/EAC was 5.2 (95% confidence interval = 1.1-25.0, P = 0.04) and the findings did not change significantly when the data were analysed according to progression to either HGD or EAC.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that non-dysplastic crypts in BE are biologically abnormal, suggesting that neoplastic progression begins prior to the onset of dysplasia. The degree of crypt atypia in BE patients without dysplasia correlates with progression.

High Proportions of Newly Detected Visible Lesions and Pathology Grade Change Among Patients with Barrett's Esophagus Referred to Expert Centers

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Endoscopic eradication therapy for Barrett's esophagus (BE)-related neoplasia is increasingly being performed at tertiary and community centers. While it has been suggested that these patients should be evaluated at expert centers, the impact of this practice has not been evaluated. We aimed to assess the impact of referral of BE-related neoplasia patients to expert centers by assessing the proportion of patients with change in pathological diagnosis and visible lesions detected.

METHODS

Multiple databases were searched until December 2021 for studies of patients with BE referred from the community to expert center. The proportions of pathology grade change and newly detected visible lesions at expert centers were pooled using a random-effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed based on baseline histology and other relevant factors.

RESULTS

Twelve studies were included (1630 patients). The pooled proportion of pathology grade change after expert pathologist review was 47% (95% CI 34-59%) overall and 46% (95% CI 31-62%) among patients with baseline low-grade dysplasia. When upper endoscopy was repeated at an expert center, the pooled proportion of pathology grade change was still high 47% (95% 26-69%) overall and 40% (95% CI 34-45%) among patients with baseline LGD. The pooled proportion of newly detected visible lesions was 45% (95% CI 28-63%) and among patients referred with LGD was 27% (95% CI 22-32%).

CONCLUSION

An alarmingly high proportion of newly detected visible lesions and pathology grade change were found when patients were referred to expert centers supporting the need for centralized care for BE-related neoplasia patients.

Optical Biopsy of Dysplasia in Barrett's Oesophagus Assisted by Artificial Intelligence

Optical biopsy in Barrett's oesophagus (BE) using endocytoscopy (EC) could optimize endoscopic screening. However, the identification of dysplasia is challenging due to the complex interpretation of the highly detailed images. Therefore, we assessed whether using artificial intelligence (AI) as second assessor could help gastroenterologists in interpreting endocytoscopic BE images. First, we prospectively videotaped 52 BE patients with EC. Then we trained and tested the AI pm distinct datasets drawn from 83,277 frames, developed an endocytoscopic BE classification system, and designed online training and testing modules. We invited two successive cohorts for these online modules: 10 endoscopists to validate the classification system and 12 gastroenterologists to evaluate AI as second assessor by providing six of them with the option to request AI assistance. Training the endoscopists in the classification system established an improved sensitivity of 90.0% (+32.67%, p < 0.001) and an accuracy of 77.67% (+13.0%, p = 0.020) compared with the baseline. However, these values deteriorated at follow-up (-16.67%, p < 0.001 and -8.0%, p = 0.009). Contrastingly, AI-assisted gastroenterologists maintained high sensitivity and accuracy at follow-up, subsequently outperforming the unassisted gastroenterologists (+20.0%, p = 0.025 and +12.22%, p = 0.05). Thus, best diagnostic scores for the identification of dysplasia emerged through human-machine collaboration between trained gastroenterologists with AI as the second assessor. Therefore, AI could support clinical implementation of optical biopsies through EC.

Cancer Risk in Barrett's Esophagus: A Clinical Review

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is rapidly increasing in incidence and is associated with a poor prognosis. Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a known precursor of esophageal adenocarcinoma. This review aims to explore Barrett's esophagus, esophageal adenocarcinoma, and the progression from the former to the latter. An overview of the definition, diagnosis, epidemiology, and risk factors for both entities are presented, with special attention being given to the areas of debate in the literature. The progression from Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma is reviewed and the relevant molecular pathways are discussed. The definition of Barrett's esophagus remains debated and without international consensus. This, alongside other factors, has made establishing the true prevalence of Barrett's esophagus challenging. The degree of dysplasia can be a histological challenge, but is necessary to guide clinical management. The progression of BE to EAC is likely driven by inflammatory pathways, pepsin exposure, upregulation of growth factor pathways, and mitochondrial changes. Surveillance is maintained through serial endoscopic evaluation, with shorter intervals recommended for high-risk features.

High-fidelity detection, subtyping, and localization of five skin neoplasms using supervised and semi-supervised learning

Background

Skin cancers are the most common malignancies diagnosed worldwide. While the early detection and treatment of pre-cancerous and cancerous skin lesions can dramatically improve outcomes, factors such as a global shortage of pathologists, increased workloads, and high rates of diagnostic discordance underscore the need for techniques that improve pathology workflows. Although AI models are now being used to classify lesions from whole slide images (WSIs), diagnostic performance rarely surpasses that of expert pathologists.

Objectives

The objective of the present study was to create an AI model to detect and classify skin lesions with a higher degree of sensitivity than previously demonstrated, with potential to match and eventually surpass expert pathologists to improve clinical workflows.

Methods

We combined supervised learning (SL) with semi-supervised learning (SSL) to produce an end-to-end multi-level skin detection system that not only detects 5 main types of skin lesions with high sensitivity and specificity, but also subtypes, localizes, and provides margin status to evaluate the proximity of the lesion to non-epidermal margins. The Supervised Training Subset consisted of 2188 random WSIs collected by the PathologyWatch (PW) laboratory between 2013 and 2018, while the Weakly Supervised Subset consisted of 5161 WSIs from daily case specimens. The Validation Set consisted of 250 curated daily case WSIs obtained from the PW tissue archives and included 50 "mimickers". The Testing Set (3821 WSIs) was composed of non-curated daily case specimens collected from July 20, 2021 to August 20, 2021 from PW laboratories.

Results

The performance characteristics of our AI model (i.e., Mihm) were assessed retrospectively by running the Testing Set through the Mihm Evaluation Pipeline. Our results show that the sensitivity of Mihm in classifying melanocytic lesions, basal cell carcinoma, and atypical squamous lesions, verruca vulgaris, and seborrheic keratosis was 98.91% (95% CI: 98.27%, 99.55%), 97.24% (95% CI: 96.15%, 98.33%), 95.26% (95% CI: 93.79%, 96.73%), 93.50% (95% CI: 89.14%, 97.86%), and 86.91% (95% CI: 82.13%, 91.69%), respectively. Additionally, our multi-level (i.e., patch-level, ROI-level, and WSI-level) detection algorithm includes a qualitative feature that subtypes lesions, an AI overlay in the front-end digital display that localizes diagnostic ROIs, and reports on margin status by detecting overlap between lesions and non-epidermal tissue margins.

Conclusions

Our AI model, developed in collaboration with dermatopathologists, detects 5 skin lesion types with higher sensitivity than previously published AI models, and provides end users with information such as subtyping, localization, and margin status in a front-end digital display. Our end-to-end system has the potential to improve pathology workflows by increasing diagnostic accuracy, expediting the course of patient care, and ultimately improving patient outcomes.

Management of Dysplastic Barrett's Esophagus and Early Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

While patients with Barrett's esophagus without dysplasia may benefit from endoscopic surveillance, those with low-grade dysplasia may be managed with either endoscopic surveillance or endoscopic eradication. Patients with Barrett's esophagus with high-grade dysplasia and/or intramucosal adenocarcinoma will generally require endoscopic eradication therapy. The management of Barrett's esophagus with dysplasia and early esophageal adenocarcinoma is predominantly endoscopic, with multiple effective methods available for the resection of raised neoplasia and ablation of flat neoplasia. High-dose proton-pump inhibitor therapy is advised during the treatment of Barrett's esophagus with dysplasia and early esophageal adenocarcinoma. After the endoscopic eradication of Barrett's esophagus and associated neoplasia, surveillance is required for the diagnosis and retreatment of recurrence or progression.

Today's Mistakes and Tomorrow's Wisdom in Development and Use of Biomarkers for Barrett's Esophagus

BACKGROUND

A histological diagnosis of dysplasia is our current best predictor of progression in Barrett's esophagus (BE), the precursor of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Despite periodic endoscopic surveillance and assessment of dysplastic changes, we fail to identify the majority of those who progress before the development of EAC, whereas the majority of patients undergo endoscopy without showing progression.

SUMMARY

Low-grade dysplasia (LGD), confirmed by expert pathologists, identifies BE patients at higher risk for progression, but the diagnosis of LGD is challenging. Recent research indicates that progression from BE to EAC is heterogeneous and can accelerate via genome doubling and genome catastrophes, resulting in different ways to progression. We identified 3 target areas, which may help to overcome the current lack of an accurate biomarker: (1) the implementation of somatic point mutations, chromosomal alterations, and epigenetic changes (genomics and epigenomics), (2) evaluate and develop biomarkers over space and time, (3) use new sampling methods such as noninvasive self-expandable sponges and endoscopic brushes. This review focus on the state of the art in risk stratifying BE and on recent advances which may overcome the limitations of current strategies.

KEY MESSAGES

A panel of clinical factors, genomics, epigenomics, and/or proteomics will most likely lead to an assay that accurately risk stratifies BE patients into low- or high-risk for progression. This biomarker panel needs to be developed and validated in large cohorts containing a sufficient number of progressors, with testing samples over space (spatial distribution) and time (temporal distribution). For implementation in clinical practice, the technique should be affordable and applicable to formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples, which represent standard of care.

Prevalence and Predictors of Missed Dysplasia on Index Barrett's Esophagus Diagnosing Endoscopy in a Veteran Population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Limitations of endoscopic sampling may result in missed dysplasia at the diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus (BE). However, the role of close follow-up endoscopy is unclear. The aim was to evaluate the proportion of patients diagnosed with "missed" dysplasia within 18 months of their index nondysplastic BE (NDBE) diagnosis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of a cohort of BE patients diagnosed during 1990-2019 at the Houston VA. Patients with BE on index esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) were classified as NDBE, indefinite dysplasia, or dysplastic (low- or high-grade dysplasia) based on initial biopsies. We identified NDBE patients who had follow-up EGD within 3-18 months after index EGD. We used logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk factors of dysplasia on follow-up EGD.

RESULTS

We identified 614 patients who had BE on index EGD. Among those with NDBE and follow-up EGD within 3-18 months (n = 271), 4.1% had definite dysplasia on follow-up, and an additional 14.0% had indefinite dysplasia. Proportions of definite or indefinite dysplasia at follow-up within 3-18 months significantly decreased from 32.6% among patients with index EGD before 2009 to 11.7% among patients with index EGD after 2013 (P for trend = .068). Those with any indefinite or definite dysplastic BE at follow-up within 3-18 months after index EGD (n = 49) were more likely to have BE length ≥3 cm on index EGD (odds ratio, 3.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.63-7.08) than those with persistent NDBE or no BE on follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of missed dysplasia on an index EGD has decreased over time. However, those with long segment BE were more than 3 times as likely to have missed dysplasia, and this group could benefit from dysplasia surveillance within 18 months of BE diagnosis.

Diagnosis and Management of Barrett's Esophagus: An Updated ACG Guideline

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a common condition associated with chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease. BE is the only known precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma, a highly lethal cancer with an increasing incidence over the last 5 decades. These revised guidelines implement Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology to propose recommendations for the definition and diagnosis of BE, screening for BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma, surveillance of patients with known BE, and the medical and endoscopic treatment of BE and its associated early neoplasia. Important changes since the previous iteration of this guideline include a broadening of acceptable screening modalities for BE to include nonendoscopic methods, liberalized intervals for surveillance of short-segment BE, and volume criteria for endoscopic therapy centers for BE. We recommend endoscopic eradication therapy for patients with BE and high-grade dysplasia and those with BE and low-grade dysplasia. We propose structured surveillance intervals for patients with dysplastic BE after successful ablation based on the baseline degree of dysplasia. We could not make recommendations regarding chemoprevention or use of biomarkers in routine practice due to insufficient data.

Multi-omic cross-sectional cohort study of pre-malignant Barrett's esophagus reveals early structural variation and retrotransposon activity

Barrett's esophagus is a pre-malignant lesion that can progress to esophageal adenocarcinoma. We perform a multi-omic analysis of pre-cancer samples from 146 patients with a range of outcomes, comprising 642 person years of follow-up. Whole genome sequencing reveals complex structural variants and LINE-1 retrotransposons, as well as known copy number changes, occurring even prior to dysplasia. The structural variant burden captures the most variance across the cohort and genomic profiles do not always match consensus clinical pathology dysplasia grades. Increasing structural variant burden is associated with: high levels of chromothripsis and breakage-fusion-bridge events; increased expression of genes related to cell cycle checkpoint, DNA repair and chromosomal instability; and epigenetic silencing of Wnt signalling and cell cycle genes. Timing analysis reveals molecular events triggering genomic instability with more clonal expansion in dysplastic samples. Overall genomic complexity occurs early in the Barrett's natural history and may inform the potential for cancer beyond the clinically discernible phenotype.

The utility of P53 immunohistochemistry in the diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus with indefinite for dysplasia

BACKGROUND

Barrett's esophagus with indefinite for dysplasia (BE-IND) is a subjective diagnosis with a low interobserver agreement (IOA) among pathologists and uncertain clinical implications. This study aimed to assess the utility of p53 immunohistochemistry (p53-IHC) in assessing BE-IND specimens.

METHODS

Archive endoscopic biopsies with a BE-IND diagnosis from two academic centers were analyzed. Firstly, hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides (H&E) were reviewed by four expert GI pathologists allocated into two groups (A and B). After a wash-out period of at least eight weeks, H&E slides were re-assessed side-to-side with p53-IHC available. We compared the rate of changed diagnosis and the IOA for all BE grades before and after p53-IHC.

FINDINGS

We included 216 BE-IND specimens from 185 patients, of which 44.0% and 32.9% were confirmed after H&E slide revision by Groups A and B, respectively. Over half of the cases were reclassified to a non-dysplastic BE (NDBE), while 5.6% of cases in Group A and 7.4% in Group B were reclassified to definite dysplasia. The IOA for NDBE, BE-IND, low-grade dysplasia (LGD), and high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/intramucosal cancer (IMC) was 0.31, 0.21, -0.03, and -0.02, respectively. Use of p53-IHC led to a >40% reduction in BE-IND diagnoses (P<.001), and increased IOA for all BE grades (κ=0.46 [NDBE], 0.26 [BE-IND], 0.49 [LGD], 0.35 [HGD/IMC]). An aberrant p53-IHC pattern significantly increased the likelihood of reclassifying BE-IND to definite dysplasia (odds ratio 44.3, 95%CI:18.8-113.0).

INTERPRETATION

P53-IHC reduces the rate of BE-IND diagnoses and improves the IOA among pathologists when reporting BE with equivocal epithelial changes.

Barrett's esophagus: The pathomorphological and molecular genetic keystones of neoplastic progression

Barrett's esophagus is a widespread chronically progressing disease of heterogeneous nature. A life threatening complication of this condition is neoplastic transformation, which is often overlooked due to lack of standardized approaches in diagnosis, preventative measures and treatment. In this essay, we aim to stratify existing data to show specific associations between neoplastic transformation and the underlying processes which predate cancerous transition. We discuss pathomorphological, genetic, epigenetic, molecular and immunohistochemical methods related to neoplasia detection on the basis of Barrett's esophagus. Our review sheds light on pathways of such neoplastic progression in the distal esophagus, providing valuable insight into progression assessment, preventative targets and treatment modalities. Our results suggest that molecular, genetic and epigenetic alterations in the esophagus arise earlier than cancerous transformation, meaning the discussed targets can help form preventative strategies in at-risk patient groups.

Molecular characterization of Barrett's esophagus at single-cell resolution

Barrett’s esophagus (BE), the premalignant condition of esophageal adenocarcinoma, is categorized into different stages which correlate with the risk of developing carcinoma. We performed single-cell DNA-sequencing experiments with fresh biopsies, which revealed the appearance of a specific T > C and T > G mutational signature, known as COSMIC signature SBS17, in BE cells that are chromosomally unstable. The SBS17-specific mutations were, however, not detected in chromosomally stable BE cells. Additionally, we performed single-cell RNA sequencing experiments which identified seven genes that facilitate the distinction between different BE stages on histological sections.

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is categorized, based on morphological appearance, into different stages, which correlate with the risk of developing esophageal adenocarcinoma. More advanced stages are more likely to acquire chromosomal instabilities, but stage-specific markers remain elusive. Here, we performed single-cell DNA-sequencing experiments (scDNAseq) with fresh BE biopsies. Dysplastic BE cells frequently contained chromosomal instability (CIN) regions, and these CIN cells carried mutations corresponding to the COSMIC mutational signature SBS17, which were not present in biopsy-matched chromosomally stable (CS) cells or patient-matched nondiseased control cells. CS cells were predominantly found in nondysplastic BE biopsies. The single-base substitution (SBS) signatures of all CS BE cells analyzed were indistinguishable from those of nondiseased esophageal or gastric cells. Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNAseq) experiments with BE biopsies identified two sets of marker genes which facilitate the distinction between columnar BE epithelium and nondysplastic/dysplastic stages. Moreover, histological validation confirmed a correlation between increased CLDN2 expression and the presence of dysplastic BE stages. Our scDNAseq and scRNAseq datasets, which are a useful resource for the community, provide insight into the mutational landscape and gene expression pattern at different stages of BE development.

Stain-free identification of tissue pathology using a generative adversarial network to infer nanomechanical signatures

Intraoperative frozen section analysis can be used to improve the accuracy of tumour margin estimation during cancer resection surgery through rapid processing and pathological assessment of excised tissue. Its applicability is limited in some cases due to the additional risks associated with prolonged surgery, largely from the time-consuming staining procedure. Our work uses a measurable property of bulk tissue to bypass the staining process: as tumour cells proliferate, they influence the surrounding extra-cellular matrix, and the resulting change in elastic modulus provides a signature of the underlying pathology. In this work we accurately localise atomic force microscopy measurements of human liver tissue samples and train a generative adversarial network to infer elastic modulus from low-resolution images of unstained tissue sections. Pathology is predicted through unsupervised clustering of parameters characterizing the distributions of inferred values, achieving 89% accuracy for all samples based on the nominal assessment (n = 28), and 95% for samples that have been validated by two independent pathologists through post hoc staining (n = 20). Our results demonstrate that this technique could increase the feasibility of intraoperative frozen section analysis for use during resection surgery and improve patient outcomes.

The natural history of low-grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus and risk factors for progression

Background and Aim

Barrett's esophagus is associated with increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. The optimal management of low‐grade dysplasia arising in Barrett's esophagus remains controversial. We performed a retrospective study from a tertiary referral center for Barrett's esophagus neoplasia, to estimate time to progression to high‐grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma in patients with confirmed low‐grade dysplasia compared with those with downstaged low‐grade dysplasia from index presentation and referral. We analyzed risk factors for progression.

Methods

We analyzed consecutive patients with low‐grade dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus referred to a single tertiary center (July 2006–October 2018). Biopsies were reviewed by at least two expert pathologists.

Results

One hundred and forty‐seven patients referred with suspected low‐grade dysplasia were included. Forty‐two of 133 (32%) of all external referrals had confirmed low‐grade dysplasia after expert histopathology review. Multivariable analysis showed nodularity at index endoscopy (P < 0.05), location of dysplasia (P = 0.05), and endoscopic therapy after referral (P = 0.09) were associated with progression risk. At 5 years, 59% of patients with confirmed low‐grade dysplasia had not progressed versus 74% of patients in the cohort downstaged to non‐dysplastic Barrett's esophagus.

Conclusion

Our data show variability in the diagnosis of low‐grade dysplasia. The cumulative incidence of progression and time to progression varied across subgroups. Confirmed low‐grade dysplasia had a shorter progression time compared with the downstaged group. Nodularity at index endoscopy and multifocal low‐grade dysplasia were significant risk factors for progression. It is important to differentiate these high‐risk subgroups so that decisions on surveillance/endotherapy can be personalized.

Neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions of the oesophagus and gastro-oesophageal junction

Oesophageal and gastro-oesophageal junction (GOJ) neoplasms, and their predisposing conditions, may be encountered by the practicing pathologist both as biopsy samples and as surgical specimens in daily practice. Changes in incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas (such as a decrease in western countries) and in oesophageal and GOJ adenocarcinomas (such as a sharp increase in western countries) are being reported globally. New modes of treatment have changed our histologic reports as specific aspects must be detailed such as in post endoscopic resections or with regards to post neo-adjuvant therapy tumour regression grades. The main aim of this overview is therefore to provide an up-to-date, easily available and clear diagnostic approach to neoplastic and pre-neoplastic conditions of the oesophagus and GOJ, based on the most recent available guidelines and literature.

Toward improved endoscopic surveillance with multidiameter single fiber reflectance spectroscopy in patients with Barrett's esophagus

Patients with Barrett's esophagus are at an increased risk to develop esophageal cancer and, therefore, undergo regular endoscopic surveillance. Early detection of neoplasia enables endoscopic treatment, which improves outcomes. However, early Barrett's neoplasia is easily missed during endoscopic surveillance. This study investigates multidiameter single fiber reflectance spectroscopy (MDSFR) to improve Barrett's surveillance. Based on the concept of field cancerization, it may be possible to identify the presence of a neoplastic lesion from measurements elsewhere in the esophagus or even the oral cavity. In this study, MDSFR measurements are performed on non-dysplastic Barrett's mucosa, squamous mucosa, oral mucosa, and the neoplastic lesion (if present). Based on logistic regression analysis on the scattering parameters measured by MDSFR, a classifier is developed that can predict the presence of neoplasia elsewhere in the Barrett's segment from measurements on the non-dysplastic Barrett's mucosa (sensitivity 91%, specificity 71%, AUC = 0.77). Classifiers obtained from logistic regression analysis for the squamous and oral mucosa do not result in an AUC significantly different from 0.5.

Measuring Quality in Barrett's Esophagus: Time to Embrace Quality Indicators

Endoscopic eradication therapy is a safe and effective therapy that has revolutionized the management of patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE)-related neoplasia. Despite this, there remains significant heterogeneity in clinical practice with consequent variation in patient outcomes. The aim of this article was to align consensus statements based on the best available evidence and expert opinion from the United States and United Kingdom to develop robust and measurable quality indicators that help to ensure patients with BE-related neoplasia receive the highest possible quality of care uniformly.

Diagnostic interobserver variability in Crohn's disease- and ulcerative colitis-associated dysplasia: a multicenter digital survey from the IG-IBD Pathologists Group

BACKGROUND

Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis, two forms of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), are chronic and relapsing conditions of the gastrointestinal tract both characterized by long lasting chronic inflammation and increased risk of dysplasia and colorectal cancer (CRC). The aim of our study was to evaluate the interobserver agreement about IBD-associated dysplasia among pathologists belonging to the Italian Group for Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IG-IBD P).

METHODS

The present multicenter survey was performed using telepathology, supported by an open source E-learning platform. Biopsy specimens from 30 colonoscopies and from 20 patients were included. The glass slides of any case, including clinical and endoscopic data, were digitalized and uploaded on the E-learning platform. All the digital slides were grouped in 54 diagnostic "blocks". Blinded histopathological evaluation on all the digital slides was performed by 20 gastrointestinal pathologists. Closed-ended questions about (1) the occurrence of IBD; (2) the classification of IBD (as UC or CD); (3) the presence of active versus quiescent disease; (4) the presence of dysplasia; (5) the possible association of dysplasia with the sites of disease (dysplasia-associated lesion or mass-DALM vs adenoma-like mass-ALM); (6) the grading of dysplasia according to the ECCO guidelines (negative, indefinite, low grade, high grade categories) and (7) the presence of associated serrated features, were proposed in each case. Inter-observer agreement was evaluated by mean agreement percentage and kappa statistic, when suitable.

RESULTS

The diagnosis of IBD was confirmed in 19 of 20 patients, 17 of 19 being classified as UC, 2 as CD. The mean interobserver agreement percentages about (1) the evidence of IBD, (2) the presence of either UC or CD and (3) the activity grading resulted to be 80%, 69% and 86%, respectively. Dysplasia was detected in 8/20 patients, with moderate agreement between pathologists (mean 72%, k 0.48). Particularly, low grade dysplasia was found in 13 biopsies (combined k 0.38), whereas high grade dysplasia in 8 (combined k 0.47). When the endoscopic and histopathological data were combined, features consistent with DALM were found in 6 of 20 patients with low grade dysplasia and those consistent with ALM in 2 patients with low grade dysplasia in a single biopsy (mean agreement: 86%). An associated serrated pattern was discovered in 4 patients (7 biopsies).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed moderate interobserver agreement about the histopathological detection and classification of IBD-associated dysplasia. Further efforts should be undertaken to integrate the histopathological data with both the ancillary tests and molecular investigations.

Microscopic imaging of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) and Non-IBD Colitis on digital slides: The Italian Group-IBD Pathologists experience

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study is to report the experience of the pathologists of the Italian Group for the Study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) (group formed by pathologists with various experience) on the morphological assessment of digital slides pertaining to IBD and Non-IBD colitis underlining the necessity to implement this tool in daily routine and its utility to share opinions on difficult cases.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Forty-eight histological slides stained with haematoxylin and eosin obtained from ileo-colorectal endoscopic biopsies were digitized using Menarini D-Sight 2.0 system, uploaded onto a website platform and shared among 40 pathologists participating in the study. Information regarding the site of biopsy was disclosed; clinical data were blinded. Each participant was committed to write a comment on microscopic features purposing diagnostic opinion. One month after the last uploaded case, a form was sent to each participant to evaluate the personal experience on digital slide sharing.

RESULTS

Sixteen pathologists out of 40 (40%) had consistently accessed to the site,9/40 (22%) commented on all slides, a diagnostic opinion was rendered in 8 slides. Most common critical issues were: A) poor internet connection resulting in ineffective evaluation of the digital slides, B) time-consuming cases raising difficult diagnostic interpretation, C) lack of clinical history. Overall, 24 participants (60%) found the forum valuable for practical training and educational purposes.

CONCLUSIONS

Sharing scanned slides circulating within a dedicated forum is an effective educational tool in both IBDs and Non-IBDs colitis. Although our results demonstrated a substantial compliance of the participants, their limited participation was an objective shortcoming. Hence, further efforts are needed to encourage this potentially rewarding practice among the pathologist community.

Use of p53 immunohistochemistry in conjunction with routine histology improves risk stratification of patients with Barrett's oesophagus during routine clinical care

AIMS

Abnormal p53 protein expression detected by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in Barrett's oesophagus (BO) is reported to be a prognostic biomarker for progression to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). We evaluated our use of p53 IHC for patients with BO under surveillance from 2010 to 2016 in a single academic institution.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We identified 78 patients under surveillance for BO who had biopsies evaluated for abnormal p53 expression in conjunction with routine histology and 892 patients who had histological evaluation alone. All available p53 IHC slides were rescored as wild-type or abnormal. We evaluated the risk of subsequent diagnosis with HGD and OAC. p53-tested patients were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with indefinite dysplasia (IND) or low-grade dysplasia (LGD), compared to patients who were not tested (79.5 versus 10.8%, P = 7.4 × 10^-40 ). Almost half (46.9%) of patients with abnormal p53 expression were diagnosed with HGD or OAC within 5 years, compared to 5.9% with wild-type p53, and 7.6% of patients not tested (P = 2.6 × 10^-18 ). However, this difference was heavily influenced by other risk factors, including dysplasia grade, in multivariate analyses. In the subgroup of patients diagnosed with IND (n = 109), abnormal p53 expression was associated with a fourfold increase (1.2-13.3, P = 0.023) in risk of HGD/OAC relative to untested patients diagnosed with IND, independent of other risk factors.

CONCLUSION

In patients under surveillance for BO in a single academic institution, we found evidence that selective use of p53 IHC in conjunction with routine histology modestly improved risk stratification by identifying patients with IND at higher risk of a subsequent diagnosis of HGD or OAC.

Aneuploidy in targeted endoscopic biopsies outperforms other tissue biomarkers in the prediction of histologic progression of Barrett's oesophagus: A multi-centre prospective cohort study

Background

The cancer risk in Barrett's oesophagus (BO) is difficult to estimate. Histologic dysplasia has strong predictive power, but can be missed by random biopsies. Other clinical parameters have limited utility for risk stratification. We aimed to assess whether a molecular biomarker panel on targeted biopsies can predict neoplastic progression of BO.

Methods

203 patients with BO were tested at index endoscopy for 9 biomarkers (p53 and cyclin A expression; aneuploidy and tetraploidy; CDKN2A (p16), RUNX3 and HPP1 hypermethylation; 9p and 17p loss of heterozygosity) on autofluorescence-targeted biopsies and followed-up prospectively. Data comparing progressors to non-progressors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses using survival curves, Cox-proportional hazards and logistic regression models.

Findings

127 patients without high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) at index endoscopy were included, of which 42 had evidence of any histologic progression over time. Aneuploidy was the only predictor of progression from non-dysplastic BO (NDBO) to any grade of neoplasia (p = 0.013) and HGD/OAC (p = 0.002). Aberrant p53 expression correlated with risk of short-term progression within 12 months, with an odds ratio of 6.0 (95% CI: 3.1–11.2). A panel comprising aneuploidy and p53 had an area under the receiving operator characteristics curve of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.59–0.77) for prediction of any progression.

Interpretation

Aneuploidy is the only biomarker that predicts neoplastic progression of NDBO. Aberrant p53 expression suggests prevalent dysplasia, which might have been missed by random biopsies, and warrants early follow up.