Intravenous iron for heart failure, iron deficiency definitions, and clinical response: the IRONMAN trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

What is the relationship between blood tests for iron deficiency, including anaemia, and the response to intravenous iron in patients with heart failure?

METHODS

In the IRONMAN trial, 1137 patients with heart failure, ejection fraction ≤ 45%, and either serum ferritin < 100 µg/L or transferrin saturation (TSAT) < 20% were randomized to intravenous ferric derisomaltose (FDI) or usual care. Relationships were investigated between baseline anaemia severity, ferritin and TSAT, to changes in haemoglobin from baseline to 4 months, Minnesota Living with Heart Failure (MLwHF) score and 6-minute walk distance achieved at 4 months, and clinical events, including heart failure hospitalization (recurrent) or cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

The rise in haemoglobin after administering FDI, adjusted for usual care, was greater for lower baseline TSAT (Pinteraction < .0001) and ferritin (Pinteraction = .028) and more severe anaemia (Pinteraction = .014). MLwHF scores at 4 months were somewhat lower (better) with FDI for more anaemic patients (overall Pinteraction = .14; physical Pinteraction = .085; emotional Pinteraction = .043) but were not related to baseline TSAT or ferritin. Blood tests did not predict difference in achieved walking distance for those randomized to FDI compared to control. The absence of anaemia or a TSAT ≥ 20% was associated with lower event rates and little evidence of benefit from FDI. More severe anaemia or TSAT < 20%, especially when ferritin was ≥100 µg/L, was associated with higher event rates and greater absolute reductions in events with FDI, albeit not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

This hypothesis-generating analysis suggests that anaemia or TSAT < 20% with ferritin > 100 µg/L might identify patients with heart failure who obtain greater benefit from intravenous iron. This interpretation requires confirmation.

A polygenic risk score added to a QRISK®2 cardiovascular disease risk calculator demonstrated robust clinical acceptance and clinical utility in the primary care setting

AIMS

The aim of the study was to assess the real-world feasibility, acceptability, and impact of an integrated risk tool for cardiovascular disease (CVD IRT, combining the standard QRISK®2 risk algorithm with a polygenic risk score), implemented within routine primary practice in the UK National Health Service.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Healthcare Evaluation of Absolute Risk Testing Study (NCT05294419) evaluated participants undergoing primary care health checks. Both QRISK2 and CVD IRT scores were returned to the healthcare providers (HCPs), who then communicated the results to participants. The primary outcome of the study was feasibility of CVD IRT implementation. Secondary outcomes included changes in CVD risk (QRISK2 vs. CVD IRT) and impact of the CVD IRT on clinical decision-making. A total of 832 eligible participants (median age 55 years, 62% females, 97.5% White ethnicity) were enrolled across 12 UK primary care practices. Cardiovascular disease IRT scores were obtained on 100% of the blood samples. Healthcare providers stated that the CVD IRT could be incorporated into routine primary care in a straightforward manner in 90.7% of reports. Participants stated they were 'likely' or 'very likely' to recommend the use of this test to their family or friends in 86.9% of reports. Participants stated that the test was personally useful (98.8%) and that the results were easy to understand (94.6%). When CVD IRT exceeded QRISK2, HCPs planned changes in management for 108/388 (27.8%) of participants and 47% (62/132) of participants with absolute risk score changes of >2%.

CONCLUSION

Amongst HCPs and participants who agreed to the trial of genetic data for refinement of clinical risk prediction in primary care, we observed that CVD IRT implementation was feasible and well accepted. The CVD IRT results were associated with planned changes in prevention strategies.

Trends for opioid prescribing and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases between 2006 and 2021

OBJECTIVE

To investigate opioid prescribing trends and assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid prescribing in rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs).

METHODS

Adult patients with RA, PsA, axial spondyloarthritis (AxSpA), SLE, OA and FM with opioid prescriptions between 1 January 2006 and 31 August 2021 without cancer in UK primary care were included. Age- and gender-standardized yearly rates of new and prevalent opioid users were calculated between 2006 and 2021. For prevalent users, monthly measures of mean morphine milligram equivalents (MME)/day were calculated between 2006 and 2021. To assess the impact of the pandemic, we fitted regression models to the monthly number of prevalent opioid users between January 2015 and August 2021. The time coefficient reflects the trend pre-pandemic and the interaction term coefficient represents the change in the trend during the pandemic.

RESULTS

The study included 1 313 519 RMD patients. New opioid users for RA, PsA and FM increased from 2.6, 1.0 and 3.4/10 000 persons in 2006 to 4.5, 1.8 and 8.7, respectively, in 2018 or 2019. This was followed by a fall to 2.4, 1.2 and 5.9, respectively, in 2021. Prevalent opioid users for all RMDs increased from 2006 but plateaued or dropped beyond 2018, with a 4.5-fold increase in FM between 2006 and 2021. In this period, MME/day increased for all RMDs, with the highest for FM (≥35). During COVID-19 lockdowns, RA, PsA and FM showed significant changes in the trend of prevalent opioid users. The trend for FM increased pre-pandemic and started decreasing during the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

The plateauing or decreasing trend of opioid users for RMDs after 2018 may reflect the efforts to tackle rising opioid prescribing in the UK. The pandemic led to fewer people on opioids for most RMDs, providing reassurance that there was no sudden increase in opioid prescribing during the pandemic.

A proteomics study of rheumatoid arthritis patients on etanercept identifies putative biomarkers associated with clinical outcome measures

OBJECTIVES

Biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs) are widely used in patients with RA, but response to bDMARDs is heterogeneous. The objective of this work was to identify pretreatment proteomic biomarkers associated with RA clinical outcome measures in patients starting bDMARDs.

METHODS

Sequential window acquisition of all theoretical fragment ion spectra mass spectrometry (SWATH-MS) was used to generate spectral maps of sera from patients with RA before and after 3 months of treatment with the bDMARD etanercept. Protein levels were regressed against RA clinical outcome measures, i.e. 28-joint DAS (DAS28) and its subcomponents and DAS28 <2.6 (i.e. remission). The proteins with the strongest evidence for association were analysed in an independent, replication dataset. Finally, subnetwork analysis was carried out using the Disease Module Detection algorithm and biological plausibility of identified proteins was assessed by enrichment analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 180 patients with RA were included in the discovery dataset and 58 in the validation dataset from a UK-based prospective multicentre study. Ten individual proteins were found to be significantly associated with RA clinical outcome measures. The association of T-complex protein 1 subunit η with DAS28 remission was replicated in an independent cohort. Subnetwork analysis of the 10 proteins from the regression analysis identified the ontological theme, with the strongest associations being with acute phase and acute inflammatory responses.

CONCLUSION

This longitudinal study of 180 patients with RA commencing etanercept has identified several putative protein biomarkers of treatment response to this drug, one of which was replicated in an independent cohort.

Prediction of pyrazinamide resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis using structure-based machine-learning approaches

Background

Pyrazinamide is one of four first-line antibiotics used to treat tuberculosis; however, antibiotic susceptibility testing for pyrazinamide is challenging. Resistance to pyrazinamide is primarily driven by genetic variation in pncA, encoding an enzyme that converts pyrazinamide into its active form.

Methods

We curated a dataset of 664 non-redundant, missense amino acid mutations in PncA with associated high-confidence phenotypes from published studies and then trained three different machine-learning models to predict pyrazinamide resistance. All models had access to a range of protein structural-, chemical- and sequence-based features.

Results

The best model, a gradient-boosted decision tree, achieved a sensitivity of 80.2% and a specificity of 76.9% on the hold-out test dataset. The clinical performance of the models was then estimated by predicting the binary pyrazinamide resistance phenotype of 4027 samples harbouring 367 unique missense mutations in pncA derived from 24 231 clinical isolates.

Conclusions

This work demonstrates how machine learning can enhance the sensitivity/specificity of pyrazinamide resistance prediction in genetics-based clinical microbiology workflows, highlights novel mutations for future biochemical investigation, and is a proof of concept for using this approach in other drugs.

Radiation doses received in the UK breast screening programmes 2019-2023

OBJECTIVE

To report the latest UK mammography dose survey results and to compare radiation doses from digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) and full-field digital mammography (FFDM) in UK breast screening.

METHODS

Anonymized exposure factors were collected for 111 152 screening cases and 5113 assessment cases from 405 x-ray sets across the United Kingdom using an online submission system linked to a national database of mammography quality control data. Output and beam quality measurements from each set were combined with exposure data to estimate mean glandular doses (MGD).

RESULTS

FFDM doses increased by ∼10% compared to the 2016-2019 national survey but compressed breast thicknesses (CBT) remained similar. DBT doses were 34%-40% higher than FFDM overall and 34% higher than FFDM for breasts 50-60 mm thick. We found a possible overestimation of PMMA breast equivalent thicknesses at low CBTs, but the evidence was not conclusive.

CONCLUSION

Recent changes to the mix of x-ray models in use in UK breast screening have resulted in higher FFDM breast doses. DBT doses in the NHSBSP are on average higher than FFDM by ∼34%-40%.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

This is the first national study to report DBT and FFDM MGDs in UK breast screening.

Evolution of CD4 T-Cell Count With Age in a Cohort of Young People Growing Up With Perinatally Acquired Human Immunodeficiency Virus

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have shown a decrease in CD4 count during adolescence in young people with perinatally acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, PHIV).

METHODS

Young people with PHIV in the United Kingdom, followed in the Collaborative HIV Paediatric Study who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) from 2000 onward were included. Changes in CD4 count over time from age 10 to 20 years were analyzed using mixed-effects models, and were compared to published CD4 data for the gerneral population. Potential predictors were examined and included demographics, age at ART start, nadir CD4 z score (age-adjusted) in childhood, and time-updated viral load.

RESULTS

Of 1258 young people with PHIV included, 669 (53%) were female, median age at ART initiation was 8.3 years, and the median nadir CD4 z score was -4.0. Mean CD4 count was higher in young people with PHIV who started ART before age 10 years and had a nadir CD4 z score ≥-4; these young people with PHIV had a decline in CD4 count after age 10 that was comparable to that of the general population. Mean CD4 count was lower in young people with PHIV who had started ART before age 10 and had a nadir CD4 z score <-4; for this group, the decline in CD4 count after age 10 was steeper over time.

CONCLUSIONS

In children, in addition to starting ART at an early age, optimizing ART to maintain a higher CD4 z score during childhood may be important to maximizing immune reconstitution later in life.

Ancient Loss of Catalytic Selenocysteine Spurred Convergent Adaptation in a Mammalian Oxidoreductase

Selenocysteine, the 21st amino acid specified by the genetic code, is a rare selenium-containing residue found in the catalytic site of selenoprotein oxidoreductases. Selenocysteine is analogous to the common cysteine amino acid, but its selenium atom offers physical-chemical properties not provided by the corresponding sulfur atom in cysteine. Catalytic sites with selenocysteine in selenoproteins of vertebrates are under strong purifying selection, but one enzyme, glutathione peroxidase 6 (GPX6), independently exchanged selenocysteine for cysteine <100 million years ago in several mammalian lineages. We reconstructed and assayed these ancient enzymes before and after selenocysteine was lost and up to today and found them to have lost their classic ability to reduce hydroperoxides using glutathione. This loss of function, however, was accompanied by additional amino acid changes in the catalytic domain, with protein sites concertedly changing under positive selection across distant lineages abandoning selenocysteine in glutathione peroxidase 6. This demonstrates a narrow evolutionary range in maintaining fitness when sulfur in cysteine impairs the catalytic activity of this protein, with pleiotropy and epistasis likely driving the observed convergent evolution. We propose that the mutations shared across distinct lineages may trigger enzymatic properties beyond those in classic glutathione peroxidases, rather than simply recovering catalytic rate. These findings are an unusual example of adaptive convergence across mammalian selenoproteins, with the evolutionary signatures possibly representing the evolution of novel oxidoreductase functions.

Factors associated with inappropriateness of antibiotic prescriptions for acutely ill children presenting to ambulatory care in high-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Acutely ill children are at risk of unwarranted antibiotic prescribing. Data on the appropriateness of antibiotic prescriptions provide insights into potential tailored interventions to promote antibiotic stewardship.

OBJECTIVES

To examine factors associated with the inappropriateness of antibiotic prescriptions for acutely ill children presenting to ambulatory care in high-income countries.

METHODS

On 8 September 2022, we systematically searched articles published since 2002 in MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, Web of Science, and grey literature databases. We included studies with acutely ill children presenting to ambulatory care settings in high-income countries reporting on the appropriateness of antibiotic prescriptions. The quality of the studies was evaluated using the Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Pooled ORs were calculated using random-effects models. Meta-regression, sensitivity and subgroup analysis were also performed.

RESULTS

We included 40 articles reporting on 30 different factors and their association with inappropriate antibiotic prescribing. 'Appropriateness' covered a wide range of definitions. The following factors were associated with increased inappropriate antibiotic prescribing: acute otitis media diagnosis [pooled OR (95% CI): 2.02 (0.54-7.48)], GP [pooled OR (95% CI) 1.38 (1.00-1.89)] and rural setting [pooled OR (95% CI) 1.47 (1.08-2.02)]. Older patient age and a respiratory tract infection diagnosis have a tendency to be positively associated with inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, but pooling of studies was not possible.

CONCLUSIONS

Prioritizing acute otitis media, GPs, rural areas, older children and respiratory tract infections within antimicrobial stewardship programmes plays a vital role in promoting responsible antibiotic prescribing. The implementation of a standardized definition of appropriateness is essential to evaluate such programmes.

The feasibility of population screening for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation using hand-held electrocardiogram devices

AIMS

There are few data on the feasibility of population screening for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) using hand-held electrocardiogram (ECG) devices outside a specialist setting or in people over the age of 75. We investigated the feasibility of screening when conducted without face-to-face contact ('remote') or via in-person appointments in primary care and explored impact of age on screening outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

People aged ≥65 years from 13 general practices in England participated in screening during 2019-20. This involved attending a practice nurse appointment (10 practices) or receiving an ECG device by post (three practices). Participants were asked to use a hand-held ECG for 1-4 weeks. Screening outcomes included uptake, quality of ECGs, AF detection rates, and uptake of anticoagulation if AF was detected. Screening was carried out by 2141 (87.5%) of people invited to practice nurse-led screening and by 288 (90.0%) invited to remote screening. At least 56 interpretable ECGs were provided by 98.0% of participants who participated for 3 weeks, with no significant differences by setting or age, except people aged 85 or over (91.1%). Overall, 2.6% (64/2429) screened participants had AF, with detection rising with age (9.2% in people aged 85 or over). A total of 53/64 (82.8%) people with AF commenced anticoagulation. Uptake of anticoagulation did not vary by age.

CONCLUSION

Population screening for paroxysmal AF is feasible in general practice and without face-to-face contact for all ages over 64 years, including people aged 85 and over.

The impact of digital technology in care homes on unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs

BACKGROUND

A substantial number of Emergency Department (ED) attendances by care home residents are potentially avoidable. Health Call Digital Care Homes is an app-based technology that aims to streamline residents' care by recording their observations such as vital parameters electronically. Observations are triaged by remote clinical staff. This study assessed the effectiveness of the Health Call technology to reduce unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of health outcomes and economic impact based on an intervention. The study involved 118 care homes across the North East of UK from 2018 to 2021. Routinely collected NHS secondary care data from County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust was linked with data from the Health Call app. Three outcomes were modelled monthly using Generalised Linear Mixed Models: counts of emergency attendances, emergency admissions and length of stay of emergency admissions. A similar approach was taken for costs. The impact of Health Call was tested on each outcome using the models.

FINDINGS

Data from 8,702 residents were used in the analysis. Results show Health Call reduces the number of emergency attendances by 11% [6-15%], emergency admissions by 25% [20-39%] and length of stay by 11% [3-18%] (with an additional month-by-month decrease of 28% [24-34%]). The cost analysis found a cost reduction of £57 per resident in 2018, increasing to £113 in 2021.

INTERPRETATION

The introduction of a digital technology, such as Health Call, could significantly reduce contacts with and costs resulting from unplanned secondary care usage by care home residents.

In vivo calcium imaging shows that satellite glial cells have increased activity in painful states

Satellite glial cells are important for proper neuronal function of primary sensory neurons for which they provide homeostatic support. Most research on satellite glial cell function has been performed with in vitro studies, but recent advances in calcium imaging and transgenic mouse models have enabled this first in vivo study of single-cell satellite glial cell function in mouse models of inflammation and neuropathic pain. We found that in naïve conditions, satellite glial cells do not respond in a time-locked fashion to neuronal firing. In painful inflammatory and neuropathic states, we detected time-locked signals in a subset of satellite glial cells, but only with suprathreshold stimulation of the sciatic nerve. Surprisingly, therefore, we conclude that most calcium signals in satellite glial cells seem to develop at arbitrary intervals not directly linked to neuronal activity patterns. More in line with expectations, our experiments also revealed that the number of active satellite glial cells was increased under conditions of inflammation or nerve injury. This could reflect the increased requirement for homeostatic support across dorsal root ganglion neuron populations, which are more active during such painful states.

Increased Risk of Vertebral Fractures in Patients With Mild Autonomous Cortisol Secretion

CONTEXT

The risk of vertebral fractures (VFx) in patients with adrenal incidentalomas (AI) and mild autonomous cortisol secretion (MACS) is debated.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the VFx prevalence and incidence in patients with AI and MACS.

METHODS

This cross-sectional and longitudinal study using retrospective data from 4 Italian endocrinology units included 444 patients (cross-sectional arm) and 126 patients (longitudinal arm, 24.9 ± 5.3 months follow-up) to evaluate prevalent and incident VFx, respectively, in patients with MACS (MACS-yes) and without MACS (MACS-no). The main outcome measures were serum cortisol after a 1-mg dexamethasone test (F-1mgDST), bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry at spine (LS) and femur (FN), and VFx presence by x-ray.

RESULTS

Cross-sectional arm: 214 and 230 patients were MACS-yes and MACS-no, respectively, based on F-1mgDST >1.8 µg/dL (50 nmol/L). Patients with MACS had higher VFx prevalence (62.6%) than those without MACS (22.9%, P < .001); MACS was associated with prevalent VFx (odds ratio, 5.203; 95% CI, 3.361-8.055; P < .001; relative risk [RR] 2.07), regardless of age, body mass index, gender distribution, LS-BMD, and presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). Longitudinal arm: 66 and 60 patients were MACS-no and MACS-yes, respectively. Patients without MACS showed higher number of incident VFx (36.4%) than patients without MACS (10.0%, P < .001); MACS was associated with the presence of an incident VFx (RR 4.561; 95% CI, 1.600-13.003; P = .005) regardless of age, LS-BMD, gender distribution, presence of prevalent VFx, and T2D. Results were confirmed in women and men when separately evaluated.

CONCLUSION

Women and men with AI and MACS are at higher risk of VFx.

Validating a model for predicting breast cancer and nonbreast cancer death in women aged 55 years and older

BACKGROUND

To support mammography screening decision making, we developed a competing-risk model to estimate 5-year breast cancer risk and 10-year nonbreast cancer death for women aged 55 years and older using Nurses' Health Study data and examined model performance in the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS). Here, we examine model performance in predicting 10-year outcomes in the BWHS, Women's Health Initiative-Extension Study (WHI-ES), and Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) and compare model performance to existing breast cancer prediction models.

METHODS

We used competing-risk regression and Royston and Altman methods for validating survival models to calculate our model's calibration and discrimination (C index) in BWHS (n = 17 380), WHI-ES (n = 106 894), and MEC (n = 49 668). The Nurses' Health Study development cohort (n = 48 102) regression coefficients were applied to the validation cohorts. We compared our model's performance with breast cancer risk assessment tool (Gail) and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS) models by computing breast cancer risk estimates and C statistics.

RESULTS

When predicting 10-year breast cancer risk, our model's C index was 0.569 in BWHS, 0.572 in WHI-ES, and 0.576 in MEC. The Gail model's C statistic was 0.554 in BWHS, 0.564 in WHI-ES, and 0.551 in MEC; IBIS's C statistic was 0.547 in BWHS, 0.552 in WHI-ES, and 0.562 in MEC. The Gail model underpredicted breast cancer risk in WHI-ES; IBIS underpredicted breast cancer risk in WHI-ES and in MEC but overpredicted breast cancer risk in BWHS. Our model calibrated well. Our model's C index for predicting 10-year nonbreast cancer death was 0.760 in WHI-ES and 0.763 in MEC.

CONCLUSIONS

Our competing-risk model performs as well as existing breast cancer prediction models in diverse cohorts and predicts nonbreast cancer death. We are developing a website to disseminate our model.

The Emerging Therapeutic Potential of Kisspeptin and Neurokinin B

Kisspeptin (KP) and neurokinin B (NKB) are neuropeptides that govern the reproductive endocrine axis through regulating hypothalamic gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) neuronal activity and pulsatile GnRH secretion. Their critical role in reproductive health was first identified after inactivating variants in genes encoding for KP or NKB signaling were shown to result in congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism and a failure of pubertal development. Over the past 2 decades since their discovery, a wealth of evidence from both basic and translational research has laid the foundation for potential therapeutic applications. Beyond KP's function in the hypothalamus, it is also expressed in the placenta, liver, pancreas, adipose tissue, bone, and limbic regions, giving rise to several avenues of research for use in the diagnosis and treatment of pregnancy, metabolic, liver, bone, and behavioral disorders. The role played by NKB in stimulating the hypothalamic thermoregulatory center to mediate menopausal hot flashes has led to the development of medications that antagonize its action as a novel nonsteroidal therapeutic agent for this indication. Furthermore, the ability of NKB antagonism to partially suppress (but not abolish) the reproductive endocrine axis has supported its potential use for the treatment of various reproductive disorders including polycystic ovary syndrome, uterine fibroids, and endometriosis. This review will provide a comprehensive up-to-date overview of the preclinical and clinical data that have paved the way for the development of diagnostic and therapeutic applications of KP and NKB.

Gonadotropins for pubertal induction in males with hypogonadotropic hypogonadism: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Hypogonadotropic hypogonadism is characterized by inadequate secretion of pituitary gonadotropins, leading to absent, partial, or arrested puberty. In males, classical treatment with testosterone promotes virilization but not testicular growth or spermatogenesis. To quantify treatment practices and efficacy, we systematically reviewed all studies investigating gonadotropins for the achievement of pubertal outcomes in males with hypogonadotropic hypogonadism.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic review of Medline, Embase, Global Health, and PsycINFO databases in December 2022. Risk of Bias 2.0/Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute tools for quality appraisal. Protocol registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022381713).

RESULTS

After screening 3925 abstracts, 103 studies were identified including 5328 patients from 21 countries. The average age of participants was <25 years in 45.6% (n = 47) of studies. Studies utilized human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) (n = 93, 90.3% of studies), human menopausal gonadotropin (n = 42, 40.8%), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) (n = 37, 35.9%), and gonadotropin-releasing hormone (28.2% n = 29). The median reported duration of treatment/follow-up was 18 months (interquartile range 10.5-24 months). Gonadotropins induced significant increases in testicular volume, penile size, and testosterone in over 98% of analyses. Spermatogenesis rates were higher with hCG + FSH (86%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 82%-91%) as compared with hCG alone (40%, 95% CI 25%-56%). However, study heterogeneity and treatment variability were high.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review provides convincing evidence of the efficacy of gonadotropins for pubertal induction. However, there remains substantial heterogeneity in treatment choice, dose, duration, and outcomes assessed. Formal guidelines and randomized studies are needed.

Costs of endovascular and open repair of thoracic aortic aneurysms

BACKGROUND

Repair of thoracic aortic aneurysms with either endovascular repair (TEVAR) or open surgical repair (OSR) represents major surgery, is costly and associated with significant complications. The aim of this study was to establish accurate costs of delivering TEVAR and OSR in a cohort of UK NHS patients suitable for open and endovascular treatment for the whole treatment pathway from admission and to discharge and 12-month follow-up.

METHODS

A prospective study of UK NHS patients from 30 NHS vascular/cardiothoracic units in England aged ≥18, with distal arch/descending thoracic aortic aneurysms (CTAA) was undertaken. A multicentre prospective cost analysis of patients (recruited March 2014-July 2018, follow-up until July 2019) undergoing TEVAR or OSR was performed. Patients deemed suitable for open or endovascular repair were included in this study. A micro-costing approach was adopted.

RESULTS

Some 115 patients having undergone TEVAR and 35 patients with OSR were identified. The mean (s.d.) cost of a TEVAR procedure was higher £26 536 (£9877) versus OSR £17 239 (£8043). Postoperative costs until discharge were lower for TEVAR £7484 (£7848) versus OSR £28 636 (£23 083). Therefore, total NHS costs from admission to discharge were lower for TEVAR £34 020 (£14 301), versus OSR £45 875 (£43 023). However, mean NHS costs for 12 months following the procedure were slightly higher for the TEVAR £5206 (£11 585) versus OSR £5039 (£11 994).

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical procedure costs were higher for TEVAR due to device costs. Total in-hospital costs were higher for OSR due to longer hospital and critical care stay. Follow-up costs over 12 months were slightly higher for TEVAR due to hospital readmissions.

Assessing the impact of discordant antibiotic treatment on adverse outcomes in community-onset UTI: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the risk of adverse outcomes following discordant antibiotic treatment (urinary organism resistant) for culture-confirmed community-onset lower urinary tract infection (UTI).

METHODS

Cohort study using routinely collected linked primary care, secondary care and microbiology data from patients with culture-confirmed community-onset lower UTI (COLUTI). Antibiotic treatment within ±3 days was considered concordant if the urinary organism was sensitive and discordant if resistant.The primary outcome was the proportion of patients experiencing urinary infection-related hospital admission (UHA) within 30 days. Secondary outcomes were the proportion of patients experiencing reconsultation within 30 days, and the odds of UHA and reconsultation following discordant treatment, adjusting for sex, age, risk factors for complicated UTI, previous antibiotic treatment, recurrent UTI and comorbidities.

RESULTS

A total of 11 963 UTI episodes in 8324 patients were included, and 1686 episodes (14.1%, 95% CI 13.5%-14.7%) were discordant. UHA occurred in 212/10 277 concordant episodes (2.1%, 95% CI 1.8%-2.4%) and 88/1686 discordant episodes (5.2%, 95% CI 4.2%-6.4%). Reconsultation occurred in 3961 concordant (38.5%, 95% CI 37.6%-39.5%) and 1472 discordant episodes (87.3%, 95% CI 85.6%-88.8%). Discordant treatment compared with concordant was associated with increased odds of UHA (adjusted OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.77-3.0, P < 0.001) and reconsultation (adjusted OR 11.25, 95% CI 9.66-13.11, P < 0.001) on multivariable analysis. Chronic kidney disease and diabetes mellitus were also independently associated with increased odds of UHA.

CONCLUSIONS

One in seven COLUTI episodes in primary care were treated with discordant antibiotics. In higher risk patients requiring urine culture, empirical antibiotic choice optimization could meaningfully reduce adverse outcomes.

What is missing from how we measure and understand the experience of poverty and deprivation in population health analyses?

BACKGROUND

Explaining why some populations are healthier than others is a core task of epidemiology. Socioeconomic position (SEP), encompassing a broad range of exposures relating to economic circumstances, social class and deprivation, is an important explanation, but lacks a comprehensive framework for understanding the range of relevant exposures it encompasses.

METHODS

We reviewed existing literature on experiential accounts of poverty through database searching and the identification of relevant material by experts. We mapped relevant concepts into a complex systems diagram. We developed this diagram through a process of consultation with academic experts and experts with direct experience of poverty. Finally, we categorized concepts on the basis of whether they have previously been measured, their importance to the causal flow of the diagram, and their importance to those consulted, creating a list of priorities for future measurement.

RESULTS

There are a great many aspects of SEP which are not frequently measured or used in epidemiological research and, for some of these, work is needed to better conceptualize and develop measures. Potentially important missing aspects include stigma, social class processes, access to education, sense of lost potential, neighbourhoods, fairness and justice, emotional labour, masking poverty, being (in)visible, costs, and experiences of power.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses seeking to understand the extent to which SEP exposures explain differences in the health of populations are likely to benefit from a comprehensive understanding of the range and inter-relationships between different aspects of SEP. More research to better conceptualize and measure these aspects is now needed.

Ethnic differences in multimorbidity after accounting for social-economic factors, findings from The Health Survey for England

BACKGROUND

Social-economic factors and health behaviours may be driving variation in ethnic health inequalities in multimorbidity including among distinct ethnic groups.

METHODS

Using the cross-sectional nationally representative Health Surveys for England 2011-18 (N = 54 438, aged 16+), we performed multivariable logistic regression on the odds of having general multimorbidity (≥2 longstanding conditions) by ethnicity [British White (reference group), White Irish, Other White, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese, African, Caribbean, White mixed, Other Mixed], adjusting for age, sex, education, area deprivation, obesity, smoking status and survey year. This was repeated for cardiovascular multimorbidity (N = 37 148, aged 40+: having ≥2 of the following: self-reported diabetes, hypertension, heart attack or stroke) and multiple cardiometabolic risk biomarkers (HbA1c ≥6.5%, raised blood pressure, total cholesterol ≥5mmol/L).

RESULTS

Twenty percent of adults had general multimorbidity. In fully adjusted models, compared with the White British majority, Other White [odds ratio (OR) = 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53-0.74], Chinese (OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.36-0.93) and African adults (OR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.42-0.69), had lower odds of general multimorbidity. Among adults aged 40+, Pakistani (OR = 1.27, 95% CI 0.97-1.66; P = 0.080) and Bangladeshi (OR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.16-2.65) had increased odds, and African adults had decreased odds (OR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.47-0.83) of general multimorbidity. Risk of cardiovascular multimorbidity was higher among Indian (OR = 3.31, 95% CI 2.56-4.28), Pakistani (OR = 3.48, 95% CI 2.52-4.80), Bangladeshi (OR = 3.67, 95% CI 1.98-6.78), African (OR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.05-2.47), Caribbean (OR = 2.18, 95% CI 1.59-2.99) and White mixed (OR = 1.98, 95% CI 1.14-3.44) adults. Indian adults were also at risk of having multiple cardiometabolic risk biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

Ethnic inequalities in multimorbidity are independent of social-economic factors. Ethnic minority groups are particularly at risk of cardiovascular multimorbidity, which may be exacerbated by poorer management of cardiometabolic risk requiring further investigation.

Does comorbidity index predict OPAT readmission?

Objectives

To determine if the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) is an accurate predictor of unplanned readmissions for patients using outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) services.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of patients >16 years of age who had received OPAT at Lancashire Teaching Hospitals between 2019 and 2021. The number of unplanned hospitalizations was measured and categorized as OPAT related or non-OPAT related. The CCI for each patient group was calculated using an online tool, and logistic regression was used to assess the association between risk factors and risk of being readmitted.

Results

The cohort consisted of 741 patients. Unplanned readmission was seen in 112 patients (15.1%). The mean CCI score for patients with OPAT-related readmissions was 4.22, 0.92 higher than the mean for patients who were not readmitted (3.30). The mean CCI score for patients with non-OPAT-related readmissions was higher still at 4.89. The logistic regression showed that increased CCI, age, male gender and home location compared with clinic were associated with increased odds of readmission, although these effects did not meet statistical significance.

Conclusions

These results suggest that a higher CCI score is associated with a non-statistically significant increased risk of unplanned hospitalization. We concluded that the CCI may therefore be used in future decision-making regarding the acceptance of patients to OPAT and requires further investigation.

Temporal trends and patterns in initial opioid prescriptions after hospital discharge following colectomy in England over 10 years

BACKGROUND

While opioid analgesics are often necessary for the management of acute postoperative pain, appropriate prescribing practices are crucial to avoid harm. The aim was to investigate the changes in the proportion of people receiving initial opioid prescriptions after hospital discharge following colectomy, and describe trends and patterns in prescription characteristics.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study. Patients undergoing colectomy in England between 2010 and 2019 were included using electronic health record data from linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum) and secondary (Hospital Episode Statistics) care. The proportion of patients having an initial opioid prescription issued in primary care within 90 days of hospital discharge was calculated. Prescription characteristics of opioid type and formulation were described.

RESULTS

Of 95 155 individuals undergoing colectomy, 15 503 (16.3%) received opioid prescriptions. There was a downward trend in the proportion of patients with no prior opioid exposure (opioid naive) who had a postdischarge opioid prescription (P <0.001), from 11.4% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2019 (-41.3%, P <0.001), whereas the proportions remained stable for those prescribed opioids prior to surgery, from 57.5% in 2010 to 58.3% in 2019 (P = 0.637). Codeine represented 44.5% of all prescriptions and prescribing increased by 14.5% between 2010 and 2019. Prescriptions for morphine and oxycodone rose significantly by 76.6% and 31.0% respectively, while tramadol prescribing dropped by 48.0%. The most commonly prescribed opioid formulations were immediate release (83.9%), followed by modified release (5.8%) and transdermal (3.2%). There was a modest decrease in the prescribing of immediate-release formulations from 86.0% in 2010 to 82.0% in 2019 (P <0.001).

CONCLUSION

Over the 10 years studied, there was a changing pattern of opioid prescribing following colectomy, with a decrease in the proportion of opioid-naive patients prescribed postdischarge opioids.

Neuroticism personality traits are linked to adverse cardiovascular phenotypes in the UK Biobank

AIMS

To evaluate the relationship between neuroticism personality traits and cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) measures of cardiac morphology and function, considering potential differential associations in men and women.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The analysis includes 36 309 UK Biobank participants (average age = 63.9 ± 7.7 years; 47.8% men) with CMR available and neuroticism score assessed by the 12-item Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised Short Form. CMR scans were performed on 1.5 Tesla scanners (MAGNETOM Aera, Siemens Healthcare, Erlangen, Germany) according to pre-defined protocols and analysed using automated pipelines. We considered measures of left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) structure and function, and indicators of arterial compliance. Multivariable linear regression was used to estimate association of neuroticism score with individual CMR metrics, with adjustment for age, sex, obesity, deprivation, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, alcohol use, exercise, and education. Higher neuroticism scores were associated with smaller LV and RV end-diastolic volumes, lower LV mass, greater concentricity (higher LV mass to volume ratio), and higher native T1. Greater neuroticism was also linked to poorer LV and RV function (lower stroke volumes) and greater arterial stiffness. In sex-stratified analyses, the relationships between neuroticism and LV stroke volume, concentricity, and arterial stiffness were attenuated in women. In men, association (with exception of native T1) remained robust.

CONCLUSION

Greater tendency towards neuroticism personality traits is linked to smaller, poorer functioning ventricles with lower LV mass, higher myocardial fibrosis, and higher arterial stiffness. These relationships are independent of traditional vascular risk factors and are more robust in men than women.

Design and quality control of large-scale two-sample Mendelian randomization studies

Background

Mendelian randomization (MR) studies are susceptible to metadata errors (e.g. incorrect specification of the effect allele column) and other analytical issues that can introduce substantial bias into analyses. We developed a quality control (QC) pipeline for the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration (FAMRC) that can be used to identify and correct for such errors.

Methods

We collated summary association statistics from fatty acid and cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and subjected the collated data to a comprehensive QC pipeline. We identified metadata errors through comparison of study-specific statistics to external reference data sets (the National Human Genome Research Institute-European Bioinformatics Institute GWAS catalogue and 1000 genome super populations) and other analytical issues through comparison of reported to expected genetic effect sizes. Comparisons were based on three sets of genetic variants: (i) GWAS hits for fatty acids, (ii) GWAS hits for cancer and (iii) a 1000 genomes reference set.

Results

We collated summary data from 6 fatty acid and 54 cancer GWAS. Metadata errors and analytical issues with the potential to introduce substantial bias were identified in seven studies (11.6%). After resolving metadata errors and analytical issues, we created a data set of 219 842 genetic associations with 90 cancer types, generated in analyses of 566 665 cancer cases and 1 622 374 controls.

Conclusions

In this large MR collaboration, 11.6% of included studies were affected by a substantial metadata error or analytical issue. By increasing the integrity of collated summary data prior to their analysis, our protocol can be used to increase the reliability of downstream MR analyses. Our pipeline is available to other researchers via the CheckSumStats package (https://github.com/MRCIEU/CheckSumStats).

Vascular inflammation and endothelial injury in SARS-CoV-2 infection: the overlooked regulatory cascades implicated by the ACE2 gene cluster

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has presented physicians with an unprecedented number of challenges and mortality. The basic question is why, in contrast to other 'respiratory' viruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can result in such multi-systemic, life-threatening complications and a severe pulmonary vasculopathy. It is widely known that SARS-CoV-2 uses membrane-bound angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a receptor, resulting in internalization of the complex by the host cell. We discuss the evidence that failure to suppress coronaviral replication within 5 days results in sustained downregulation of ACE2 protein expression and that ACE2 is under negative-feedback regulation. We then expose openly available experimental repository data that demonstrate the gene for ACE2 lies in a novel cluster of inter-regulated genes on the X chromosome including PIR encoding pirin (quercetin 2,3-dioxygenase), and VEGFD encoding the predominantly lung-expressed vascular endothelial growth factor D. The five double-elite enhancer/promoters pairs that are known to be operational, and shared read-through lncRNA transcripts, imply that ongoing SARS-CoV-2 infection will reduce host defences to reactive oxygen species, directly generate superoxide O2·- and H2O2 (a ' ROS storm'), and impair pulmonary endothelial homeostasis. Published cellular responses to oxidative stress complete the loop to pathophysiology observed in severe COVID-19. Thus, for patients who fail to rapidly suppress viral replication, the newly appreciated ACE2 co-regulated gene cluster predicts delayed responses that would account for catastrophic deteriorations. We conclude that ACE2 homeostatic drives provide a unified understanding that should help optimize therapeutic approaches during the wait until safe, effective vaccines and antiviral therapies for SARS-CoV-2 are delivered.

Real-world implementation of non-endoscopic triage testing for Barrett's oesophagus during COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) curtailed endoscopy services, adding to diagnostic backlogs. Building on trial evidence for a non-endoscopic oesophageal cell collection device coupled with biomarkers (Cytosponge), an implementation pilot was launched for patients on waiting lists for reflux and Barrett's oesophagus surveillance.

AIMS

(i) To review reflux referral patterns and Barrett's surveillance practices. (ii) To evaluate the range of Cytosponge findings and impact on endoscopy services.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Cytosponge data from centralized laboratory processing (trefoil factor 3 (TFF3) for intestinal metaplasia (IM), haematoxylin & eosin for cellular atypia and p53 for dysplasia) over a 2-year period were included.

RESULTS

A total of 10 577 procedures were performed in 61 hospitals in England and Scotland, of which 92.5% (N = 9784/10 577) were sufficient for analysis. In the reflux cohort (N = 4074 with gastro-oesophageal junction sampling), 14.7% had one or more positive biomarkers (TFF3: 13.6% (N = 550/4056), p53: 0.5% (21/3974), atypia: 1.5% (N = 63/4071)), requiring endoscopy. Among samples from individuals undergoing Barrett's surveillance (N = 5710 with sufficient gland groups), TFF3-positivity increased with segment length (odds ratio = 1.37 per cm (95% confidence interval: 1.33-1.41, P < 0.001)). Some surveillance referrals (21.5%, N = 1175/5471) had ≤1 cm segment length, of which 65.9% (707/1073) were TFF3 negative. Of all surveillance procedures, 8.3% had dysplastic biomarkers (4.0% (N = 225/5630) for p53 and 7.6% (N = 430/5694) for atypia), increasing to 11.8% (N = 420/3552) in TFF3+ cases with confirmed IM and 19.7% (N = 58/294) in ultra-long segments.

CONCLUSIONS

Cytosponge-biomarker tests enabled targeting of endoscopy services to higher-risk individuals, whereas those with TFF3 negative ultra-short segments could be reconsidered regarding their Barrett's oesophagus status and surveillance requirements. Long-term follow-up will be important in these cohorts.

Application of synthetic data in the training of artificial intelligence for automated quality assurance in magnetic resonance imaging

BACKGROUND

Magnetic resonance imaging scanner faults can be missed during routine quality assurance (QA) if they are subtle, intermittent, or the test being performed is insensitive to the type of fault. Coil element malfunction is a common fault within MRI scanners, which may go undetected for quite some time. Consequently, this may lead to poor image quality and the potential for misdiagnoses.

PURPOSE

Daily QA typically consists of an automated signal to noise ratio test and in some instances this test is insensitive to coil element malfunction. Instead of relying on daily QA testing, it was proposed to utilize patient images in conjunction with a trained neural network to detect coil element malfunction, even when it presents as a very subtle defect. The advantage to using patient images over phantom testing is real-time monitoring can be achieved. This allows clinical staff to focus more on patient throughput without being burdened by daily testing.

METHODS

A neural network was trained using simulated coil failure in 3958 abdominal or pelvic images from 497 patients. The accuracy of the trained network was then tested on an unseen dataset of 109 images from which 44 patients which had coil element malfunction present. Five MRI radiographers were shown 249 images with and without real coil malfunction to assess their accuracy compared to the neural network in identifying the scanner fault.

RESULTS

The neural network achieved an accuracy of 91.74% in identifying coil element malfunction in the unseen data. Radiographers tasked with identifying coil element malfunction had an average accuracy of 59.99%. In the same test case, the neural network outperformed all radiographers with an accuracy of 91.56%.

CONCLUSION

This work demonstrates that neural networks trained with artificial data can successfully identify MRI scanner coil element malfunction in clinical images. The method provided better accuracy than MRI radiographers (technologists) at identifying coil element malfunction and highlights the potential utility of AI methods as an alternative to support traditional QA. Further, our methodology of training neural networks with simulated data could potentially identify other faults, allowing centers to produce robust fault detection systems with minimal data.

Determining cardiovascular risk in patients with unattributed chest pain in UK primary care: an electronic health record study

AIMS

Most adults presenting in primary care with chest pain symptoms will not receive a diagnosis ('unattributed' chest pain) but are at increased risk of cardiovascular events. To assess within patients with unattributed chest pain, risk factors for cardiovascular events and whether those at greatest risk of cardiovascular disease can be ascertained by an existing general population risk prediction model or by development of a new model.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study used UK primary care electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to admitted hospitalizations. Study population was patients aged 18 plus with recorded unattributed chest pain 2002-2018. Cardiovascular risk prediction models were developed with external validation and comparison of performance to QRISK3, a general population risk prediction model. There were 374 917 patients with unattributed chest pain in the development data set. The strongest risk factors for cardiovascular disease included diabetes, atrial fibrillation, and hypertension. Risk was increased in males, patients of Asian ethnicity, those in more deprived areas, obese patients, and smokers. The final developed model had good predictive performance (external validation c-statistic 0.81, calibration slope 1.02). A model using a subset of key risk factors for cardiovascular disease gave nearly identical performance. QRISK3 underestimated cardiovascular risk.

CONCLUSION

Patients presenting with unattributed chest pain are at increased risk of cardiovascular events. It is feasible to accurately estimate individual risk using routinely recorded information in the primary care record, focusing on a small number of risk factors. Patients at highest risk could be targeted for preventative measures.

Effects of cholinesterase inhibition on attention and working memory in Lewy body dementias

Cholinesterase inhibitors are frequently used to treat cognitive symptoms in Lewy body dementias (Parkinson's disease dementia and dementia with Lewy bodies). However, the selectivity of their effects remains unclear. In a novel rivastigmine withdrawal design, Parkinson's disease dementia and dementia with Lewy bodies patients were tested twice: once when taking rivastigmine as usual and once when they had missed one dose. In each session, they performed a suite of tasks (sustained attention, simple short-term recall, distractor resistance and manipulating the focus of attention) that allowed us to investigate the cognitive mechanisms through which rivastigmine affects attentional control. Consistent with previous literature, rivastigmine withdrawal significantly impaired attentional efficacy (quicker response latencies without a change in accuracy). However, it had no effects on cognitive control as assessed by the ability to withhold a response (inhibitory control). Worse short-term memory performance was also observed when patients were OFF rivastigmine, but these effects were delay and load independent, likely due to impaired visual attention. In contrast to previous studies that have examined the effects of dopamine withdrawal, cognitively complex tasks requiring control over the contents of working memory (ignoring, updating or shifting the focus of attention) were not significantly impaired by rivastigmine withdrawal. Cumulatively, these data support that the conclusion that cholinesterase inhibition has relatively specific and circumscribed-rather than global-effects on attention that may also affect performance on simple short-term memory tasks, but not when cognitive control over working memory is required. The results also indicate that the withdrawal of a single dose of rivastigmine is sufficient to reveal these impairments, demonstrating that cholinergic withdrawal can be an informative clinical as well as an investigative tool.

Treat-to-target urate-lowering therapy and hospitalizations for gout: results from a nationwide cohort study in England

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations between treat-to-target urate-lowering therapy (ULT) and hospitalizations for gout.

METHODS

Using linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink and NHS Digital Hospital Episode Statistics data, we described the incidence and timing of hospitalizations for flares in people with index gout diagnoses in England from 2004-2020. Using Cox proportional hazards and propensity models, we investigated associations between ULT initiation, serum urate target attainment, colchicine prophylaxis, and the risk of hospitalizations for gout.

RESULTS

Of 292 270 people with incident gout, 7719 (2.64%) had one or more hospitalizations for gout, with an incidence rate of 4.64 hospitalizations per 1000 person-years (95% CI 4.54, 4.73). There was an associated increased risk of hospitalizations within the first 6 months after ULT initiation, when compared with people who did not initiate ULT [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 4.54; 95% CI 3.70, 5.58; P < 0.001]. Hospitalizations did not differ significantly between people prescribed vs not prescribed colchicine prophylaxis in fully adjusted models. From 12 months after initiation, ULT associated with a reduced risk of hospitalizations (aHR 0.77; 95% CI 0.71, 0.83; P < 0.001). In ULT initiators, attainment of a serum urate <360 micromol/l within 12 months of initiation associated with a reduced risk of hospitalizations (aHR 0.57; 95% CI 0.49, 0.67; P < 0.001) when compared with people initiating ULT but not attaining this target.

CONCLUSION

ULT associates with an increased risk of hospitalizations within the first 6 months of initiation but reduces hospitalizations in the long term, particularly when serum urate targets are achieved.

Evidence-based appraisal of two guidelines for the diagnosis of suspected, uncomplicated urinary tract infections in primary care: a diagnostic accuracy validation study

OBJECTIVES

Given the lack of accurate rapid diagnostics for urinary tract infection (UTI) in women, many countries have developed guidelines aiming to support appropriate antibiotic prescribing, but some guidelines have not been validated. We performed a diagnostic accuracy validation study of two guidelines: Public Health England (GW-1263) and Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN160).

METHODS

We used data from women with symptoms suggestive of uncomplicated UTI from a randomized controlled trial comparing urine collection devices. Symptom information was recorded via baseline questionnaire and primary care assessment. Women provided urine samples for dipstick testing and culture. We calculated the number within each risk category of diagnostic flowcharts who had positive/mixed growth/no significant growth urine culture. Results were presented as positive/negative predictive values, with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Of women aged under 65 years, 311/509 (61.1%, 95% CI 56.7%-65.3%) classified to the highest risk category (recommended to consider immediate antibiotic prescribing) and 80/199 (40.2%, 95% CI 33.4%-47.4%) classified to the lowest risk category (recommended to reassure that UTI is less likely) by the GW-1263 guideline (n = 810) had positive culture. For the SIGN160 guideline (n = 814), the proportion with positive culture ranged from 60/82 (73.2%, 95% CI 62.1%-82.1%) in those for whom immediate treatment was indicated to 33/76 (43.4%, 95% CI 32.3%-55.3%) in those recommended a self-care/waiting strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicians should be aware of the potential for diagnostic error when using diagnostic guidelines for managing uncomplicated UTI and making antimicrobial prescribing decisions. Infection cannot be excluded on the basis of symptoms and dipstick testing alone.

Autism trends in a medium size coastal town of England

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex set of neurodevelopmental conditions which affects just under 1% of the global population. This study aims to investigate the trends in ASD diagnoses in a typical English deprived coastal community over the last two decades. ASD information for patients registered at Fleetwood GP practices were provided for the period between July 1952 to March 2022. The incidence and prevalence were calculated and Poisson regression modelling was employed to estimate the effects of age and sex on the number of ASD diagnoses over time. The study shows that there has been an upward trend in the number of ASD diagnoses over the past two decades. Model's results showed that sex differences in ASD diagnoses are less pronounced when accounting for time trends. The study findings show that Fleetwood has experienced a similar rise in ASD cases as the rest of the UK, most likely due to increased awareness that may explain the time effects over gender differences. However, due to the small sample size of the study, confirmation of the gender results and identification of the factors determining the temporal trends are needed in order to determine the gender effects in ASD diagnosis.

Food insecurity, mental health and in-hospital mortality following the COVID-19 pandemic in a socially deprived UK coastal town

BACKGROUND

Public health interventions are essential to prevent a long tail of costly, avoidable and worsening ill health in coastal communities following the COVID-19 pandemic, yet no research exists to guide policy and practice as to which groups within coastal communities are vulnerable and most in need of such interventions. Within this aim, we explore engrained and emerging vulnerabilities of food insecurity, health and well-being for different demographic groups within the deprived coastal community of Fleetwood, Lancashire, UK, before and after the pandemic.

METHODS

Routinely collected data of free school meal eligibility, community mental health referrals and hospital admissions between 28 March 2016 and 31 December 2021 were aggregated by locality and deprivation within Fleetwood. Temporal autoregressive models, generalised linear mixed models and survival analyses were employed to compare trends and associations in food insecurity, health and well-being indicators against deprivation indices, demographics, comorbidities (including COVID-19), the COVID-19 pandemic period and locality.

RESULTS

Areas with better housing and income, but higher health and disability deprivation, showed increased levels of free school meal eligibility following the pandemic. Mental health was insensitive to the first 14 months of pandemic yet is worsened by unemployment deprivation and cardiovascular and respiratory comorbidities, with a greater predisposition to poor mental health in adolescents and young adults. After accounting for the effect of COVID-19, hospital mortality risk increased with demographic influences in fitting with the typology of coastal communities having an older population, struggling healthcare and a greater prevalence of comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health managers and policy makers seeking to prevent worsening health and well-being within coastal communities following the pandemic should focus on broader-scale patterns reflecting entrenched poor health typical of coastal communities, and emerging food insecurity within specific demographic and deprivation groups at finer scales.

Educational attainment, structural brain reserve and Alzheimer's disease: a Mendelian randomization analysis

Higher educational attainment is observationally associated with lower risk of Alzheimer's disease. However, the biological mechanisms underpinning this association remain unclear. The protective effect of education on Alzheimer's disease may be mediated via increased brain reserve. We used two-sample Mendelian randomization to explore putative causal relationships between educational attainment, structural brain reserve as proxied by MRI phenotypes and Alzheimer's disease. Summary statistics were obtained from genome-wide association studies of educational attainment (n = 1 131 881), late-onset Alzheimer's disease (35 274 cases, 59 163 controls) and 15 measures of grey or white matter macro- or micro-structure derived from structural or diffusion MRI (nmax = 33 211). We conducted univariable Mendelian randomization analyses to investigate bidirectional associations between (i) educational attainment and Alzheimer's disease; (ii) educational attainment and imaging-derived phenotypes; and (iii) imaging-derived phenotypes and Alzheimer's disease. Multivariable Mendelian randomization was used to assess whether brain structure phenotypes mediated the effect of education on Alzheimer's disease risk. Genetically proxied educational attainment was inversely associated with Alzheimer's disease (odds ratio per standard deviation increase in genetically predicted years of schooling = 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.60, 0.80). There were positive associations between genetically predicted educational attainment and four cortical metrics (standard deviation units change in imaging phenotype per one standard deviation increase in genetically predicted years of schooling): surface area 0.30 (95% confidence interval 0.20, 0.40); volume 0.29 (95% confidence interval 0.20, 0.37); intrinsic curvature 0.18 (95% confidence interval 0.11, 0.25); local gyrification index 0.21 (95% confidence interval 0.11, 0.31)]; and inverse associations with cortical intracellular volume fraction [-0.09 (95% confidence interval -0.15, -0.03)] and white matter hyperintensities volume [-0.14 (95% confidence interval -0.23, -0.05)]. Genetically proxied levels of surface area, cortical volume and intrinsic curvature were positively associated with educational attainment [standard deviation units change in years of schooling per one standard deviation increase in respective genetically predicted imaging phenotype: 0.13 (95% confidence interval 0.10, 0.16); 0.15 (95% confidence interval 0.11, 0.19) and 0.12 (95% confidence interval 0.04, 0.19)]. We found no evidence of associations between genetically predicted imaging-derived phenotypes and Alzheimer's disease. The inverse association of genetically predicted educational attainment with Alzheimer's disease did not attenuate after adjusting for imaging-derived phenotypes in multivariable analyses. Our results provide support for a protective causal effect of educational attainment on Alzheimer's disease risk, as well as potential bidirectional causal relationships between education and brain macro- and micro-structure. However, we did not find evidence that these structural markers affect risk of Alzheimer's disease. The protective effect of education on Alzheimer's disease may be mediated via other measures of brain reserve not included in the present study, or by alternative mechanisms.

Inclusion of minor alleles improves catalogue-based prediction of fluoroquinolone resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Objectives

Fluoroquinolone resistance poses a threat to the successful treatment of tuberculosis. WGS, and the subsequent detection of catalogued resistance-associated mutations, offers an attractive solution to fluoroquinolone susceptibility testing but sensitivities are often less than 90%. We hypothesize that this is partly because the bioinformatic pipelines used usually mask the recognition of minor alleles that have been implicated in fluoroquinolone resistance.

Methods

We analysed the Comprehensive Resistance Prediction for Tuberculosis: an International Consortium (CRyPTIC) dataset of globally diverse WGS Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates, with matched MICs for two fluoroquinolone drugs and allowed putative minor alleles to contribute to resistance prediction.

Results

Detecting minor alleles increased the sensitivity of WGS for moxifloxacin resistance prediction from 85.4% to 94.0%, without significantly reducing specificity. We also found no correlation between the proportion of an M. tuberculosis population containing a resistance-conferring allele and the magnitude of resistance.

Conclusions

Together our results highlight the importance of detecting minor resistance-conferring alleles when using WGS, or indeed any sequencing-based approach, to diagnose fluoroquinolone resistance.

Factors influencing influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake and refusal in older adults: a population-based cross-sectional study in England

OBJECTIVES

Uptake of influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccines in older adults vary across regions and socioeconomic backgrounds. In this study, we study the coverage and factors associated with vaccination uptake, as well as refusal in the unvaccinated population and their associations with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This is a cross-sectional study of adults aged 65 years or older in England, using a large primary care database. Associations of vaccine uptake and refusal in the unvaccinated with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions were modelled using multivariable logistic regression.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake and refusal (in the unvaccinated).

RESULTS

This study included 2 054 463 patients from 1318 general practices. 1 711 465 (83.3%) received at least one influenza vaccine, 1 391 228 (67.7%) pneumococcal vaccine and 690 783 (53.4%) shingles vaccine. Compared with White ethnicity, influenza vaccine uptake was lower in Chinese (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.53), 'Other ethnic' groups (0.63; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.65), black Caribbean (0.68; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.71) and black African (0.72; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.77). There was generally lower vaccination uptake among more deprived individuals, people living in larger household sizes (three or more persons) and those with fewer health conditions. Among those who were unvaccinated, higher odds of refusal were associated with the black Caribbean ethnic group and marginally with increased deprivation, but not associated with higher refusal in those living in large households or those with lesser health conditions.

CONCLUSION

Certain ethnic minority groups, deprived populations, large households and 'healthier' individuals were less likely to receive a vaccine, although higher refusal was only associated with ethnicity and deprivation but not larger households nor healthier individuals. Understanding these may inform tailored public health messaging to different communities for equitable implementation of vaccination programmes.

Health-related quality of life in cardiac sarcoidosis: a systematic review

People living with cardiac sarcoidosis (CS) are likely to have worse clinical outcomes and greater impairment on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) than other sarcoidosis manifestations. CS can result in a constellation of intrusive symptoms (such as palpitations, dizziness, syncope/pre-syncope, chest pain, dyspnoea, orthopnoea, or peripheral oedema) and/or life-threatening episodes, requiring consideration of invasive cardiac procedures for diagnosis and for the management of acute events. Additionally, the presence of multisystemic involvement and persistent non-specific sarcoidosis symptoms negatively affect HRQoL. A systematic review was undertaken to explore the impact of CS on HRQoL in adults with CS. Multiple bibliographic databases were searched for studies with HRQoL as primary or secondary outcomes in CS (PROSPERO registration: CRD42019119752). Data extraction and quality assessments were undertaken independently by two authors. From the initial 1609 identified records, only 11 studies included CS patients but none specifically reported HRQoL scores for CS patients. The average representation of CS patients was 14.5% within these cohorts (range 2-22%). The majority (73%) was conducted in single-centre tertiary care settings, and only one study (9%) included longitudinal HRQoL data. CS patients were among those sarcoidosis patients with impaired HRQoL and worse outcomes, requiring higher doses of sarcoidosis-specific therapy which contribute to further deterioration of HRQoL. Sarcoidosis studies do not incorporate stratified HRQoL scores for CS patients. While there is a need for longitudinal and multicentre studies assessing HRQoL outcomes in CS cohorts, the development of CS-specific tools is also needed.

Premature atrial and ventricular contractions detected on wearable-format electrocardiograms and prediction of cardiovascular events

Aims

Wearable devices are transforming the electrocardiogram (ECG) into a ubiquitous medical test. This study assesses the association between premature ventricular and atrial contractions (PVCs and PACs) detected on wearable-format ECGs (15 s single lead) and cardiovascular outcomes in individuals without cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Methods and results

Premature atrial contractions and PVCs were identified in 15 s single-lead ECGs from N = 54 016 UK Biobank participants (median age, interquartile range, age 58, 50-63 years, 54% female). Cox regression models adjusted for traditional risk factors were used to determine associations with atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias (LTVAs), and mortality over a period of 11.5 (11.4-11.7) years. The strongest associations were found between PVCs (prevalence 2.2%) and HF (hazard ratio, HR, 95% confidence interval = 2.09, 1.58-2.78) and between PACs (prevalence 1.9%) and AF (HR = 2.52, 2.11-3.01), with shorter prematurity further increasing risk. Premature ventricular contractions and PACs were also associated with LTVA (P < 0.05). Associations with MI, stroke, and mortality were significant only in unadjusted models. In a separate UK Biobank sub-study sample [UKB-2, N = 29,324, age 64, 58-60 years, 54% female, follow-up 3.5 (2.6-4.8) years] used for independent validation, after adjusting for risk factors, PACs were associated with AF (HR = 1.80, 1.12-2.89) and PVCs with HF (HR = 2.32, 1.28-4.22).

Conclusion

In middle-aged individuals without CVD, premature contractions identified in 15 s single-lead ECGs are strongly associated with an increased risk of AF and HF. These data warrant further investigation to assess the role of wearable ECGs for early cardiovascular risk stratification.

Body mass index and molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Obesity is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), but the evidence for the association is inconsistent across molecular subtypes of the disease.

METHODS

We pooled data on body mass index (BMI), tumor microsatellite instability status, CpG island methylator phenotype status, BRAF and KRAS mutations, and Jass classification types for 11 872 CRC cases and 11 013 controls from 11 observational studies. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for covariables.

RESULTS

Higher BMI was associated with increased CRC risk (OR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.22). The positive association was stronger for men than women but similar across tumor subtypes defined by individual molecular markers. In analyses by Jass type, higher BMI was associated with elevated CRC risk for types 1-4 cases but not for type 5 CRC cases (considered familial-like/Lynch syndrome microsatellite instability-H, CpG island methylator phenotype-low or negative, BRAF-wild type, KRAS-wild type, OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.20). This pattern of associations for BMI and Jass types was consistent by sex and design of contributing studies (cohort or case-control).

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to previous reports with fewer study participants, we found limited evidence of heterogeneity for the association between BMI and CRC risk according to molecular subtype, suggesting that obesity influences nearly all major pathways involved in colorectal carcinogenesis. The null association observed for the Jass type 5 suggests that BMI is not a risk factor for the development of CRC for individuals with Lynch syndrome.

Understanding the roles and work of paramedics in primary care: a national cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVES

This research aimed to fill a current knowledge gap, namely the current scope of clinical role of paramedics in primary care, in relation to specific constructs such a level of education and clinical experience.

SETTING

The survey was distributed to paramedics in primary care across the UK through the College of Paramedics.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 341 surveys were returned (male=215). 90% of responses were from paramedics in England, 1.7% from paramedics in Northern Ireland, 4.6% from paramedics in Scotland and 2.9% from paramedics in Wales. This represents approximately 33% of the primary care paramedic workforce in England and Wales. Estimates for percentages in Northern Ireland and Scotland are unavailable due to the lack of workforce datasets capturing paramedics in primary care.

RESULTS

Considerable variation was found in job titles, level of education and provision of clinical supervision of paramedics in primary care. Differing levels of practice were noted, despite guidance documents that attempt to standardise the role. Statistical analysis of quantitative data highlighted that relationships exist between paramedic clinical exposure in primary care, level of education, and ability of independently prescribe medicines and the extent to which clinical presentations are seen and examinations performed. However, free-text responses indicated that challenges in relation to access to further education and clinical supervision to support clinical development resulted in frustration for paramedics who work in this setting.

CONCLUSIONS

As well as offering an insight into the demographics of the primary care paramedic work force, there is indication of the clinical scope of role undertaken in this setting. Based on our findings, we recommend changes to education and support, governance and legislation to ensure paramedics employed in primary care can work to achieve the full extent of their professional capability.

No evidence that genetic predictors of susceptibility predict changes in core outcomes in JIA

OBJECTIVES

The clinical progression of JIA is unpredictable. Knowing who will develop severe disease could facilitate rapid intensification of therapies. We use genetic variants conferring susceptibility to JIA to predict disease outcome measures.

METHODS

A total of 713 JIA patients with genotype data and core outcome variables (COVs) at diagnosis (baseline) and 1 year follow-up were identified from the Childhood Arthritis Prospective Study (CAPS). A weighted genetic risk score (GRS) was generated, including all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with JIA susceptibility (P-value < 5×10-08). We used multivariable linear regression to test the GRS for association with COVS (limited joint count, active joint count, physician global assessment, parent/patient general evaluation, childhood HAQ and ESR) at baseline and change in COVS from baseline to 1 year, adjusting for baseline COV and International League of Associations of Rheumatology (ILAR) category. The GRS was split into quintiles to identify high (quintile 5) and low (quintile 1) risk groups.

RESULTS

Patients in the high-risk group for the GRS had a younger age at presentation (median low risk 7.79, median high risk 3.51). No association was observed between the GRS and any outcome measures at 1 year follow-up or baseline.

CONCLUSION

For the first time we have used all known JIA genetic susceptibility loci (P=<5×10-08) in a GRS to predict changes in disease outcome measured over time. Genetic susceptibility variants are poor predictors of changes in core outcome measures, it is likely that genetic factors predicting disease outcome are independent to those predicting susceptibility. The next step will be to conduct a genome-wide association analysis of JIA outcome.

Research Recommendations Following the Discovery of Pain Sensitizing IgG Autoantibodies in Fibromyalgia Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is the most common chronic widespread pain condition in rheumatology. Until recently, no clear pathophysiological mechanism for fibromyalgia had been established, resulting in management challenges. Recent research has indicated that serum immunoglobulin Gs (IgGs) may play a role in FMS. We undertook a research prioritisation exercise to identify the most pertinent research approaches that may lead to clinically implementable outputs.

METHODS

Research priority setting was conducted in five phases: situation analysis; design; expert group consultation; interim recommendations; consultation and revision. A dialogue model was used, and an international multi-stakeholder expert group was invited. Clinical, patient, industry, funder, and scientific expertise was represented throughout. Recommendation-consensus was determined via a voluntary closed eSurvey. Reporting guideline for priority setting of health research were employed to support implementation and maximise impact.

RESULTS

Arising from the expert group consultation (n = 29 participants), 39 interim recommendations were defined. A response rate of 81.5% was achieved in the consensus survey. Six recommendations were identified as high priority- and 15 as medium level priority. The recommendations range from aspects of fibromyalgia features that should be considered in future autoantibody research, to specific immunological investigations, suggestions for trial design in FMS, and therapeutic interventions that should be assessed in trials.

CONCLUSIONS

By applying the principles of strategic priority setting we directed research towards that which is implementable, thereby expediating the benefit to the FMS patient population. These recommendations are intended for patients, international professionals and grant-giving bodies concerned with research into causes and management of patients with fibromyalgia syndrome.

Prion-like α-synuclein pathology in the brain of infants with Krabbe disease

Krabbe disease is an infantile neurodegenerative disorder resulting from pathogenic variants in the GALC gene that causes accumulation of the toxic sphingolipid psychosine. GALC variants are also associated with Lewy body diseases, an umbrella term for age-associated neurodegenerative diseases in which the protein α-synuclein aggregates into Lewy bodies. To explore whether α-synuclein in Krabbe disease has pathological similarities to that in Lewy body disease, we performed an observational post-mortem study of Krabbe disease brain tissue (n = 4) compared to infant controls (n = 4) and identified widespread accumulations of α-synuclein. To determine whether α-synuclein in Krabbe disease brain displayed disease-associated pathogenic properties we evaluated its seeding capacity using the real-time quaking-induced conversion assay in two cases for which frozen tissue was available and strikingly identified aggregation into fibrils similar to those observed in Lewy body disease, confirming the prion-like capacity of Krabbe disease-derived α-synuclein. These observations constitute the first report of prion-like α-synuclein in the brain tissue of infants and challenge the putative view that α-synuclein pathology is merely an age-associated phenomenon, instead suggesting it results from alterations to biological pathways, such as sphingolipid metabolism. Our findings have important implications for understanding the mechanisms underlying Lewy body formation in Lewy body disease.

Trajectories of cognitive change following stroke: stepwise decline towards dementia in the elderly

Stroke events increase the risk of developing dementia, 10% for a first-ever stroke and 30% for recurrent strokes. However, the effects of stroke on global cognition, leading up to dementia, remain poorly understood. We investigated: (i) post-stroke trajectories of cognitive change, (ii) trajectories of cognitive decline in those who develop dementia over periods of follow-up length and (iii) risk factors precipitating the onset of dementia. Prospective cohort of hospital-based stroke survivors in North-East England was followed for up to 12 years. In this study, we included 355 stroke survivors of ≥75 years of age, not demented 3 months post-stroke, who had had annual assessments during follow-up. Global cognition was measured annually and characterized using standardized tests: Cambridge Cognition Examination-Revised and Mini-Mental State Examination. Demographic data and risk factors were recorded at baseline. Mixed-effects models were used to study trajectories in global cognition, and logistic models to test associations between the onset of dementia and key risk factors, adjusted for age and sex. Of the 355 participants, 91 (25.6%) developed dementia during follow-up. The dementia group had a sharper decline in Cambridge Cognition Examination-Revised (coeff. = -1.91, 95% confidence interval = -2.23 to -1.59, P < 0.01) and Mini-Mental State Examination (coeff. = -0.46, 95% confidence interval = -0.58 to -0.34, P < 0.01) scores during follow-up. Stroke survivors who developed dementia within 3 years after stroke showed a steep decline in global cognition. However, a period of cognitive stability after stroke lasting 3 years was identified for individuals diagnosed with dementia in 4-6 years (coeff. = 0.28, 95% confidence interval = -3.28 to 3.8, P = 0.88) of 4 years when diagnosed at 7-9 years (coeff. = -3.00, 95% confidence interval = -6.45 to 0.45, P = 0.09); and of 6 years when diagnosed at 10-12 years (coeff. = -6.50, 95% confidence interval = -13.27 to 0.27, P = 0.06). These groups then showed a steep decline in Cambridge Cognition Examination-Revised in the 3 years prior to diagnosis of dementia. Risk factors for dementia within 3 years include recurrent stroke (odds ratio = 3.99, 95% confidence interval = 1.30-12.25, P = 0.016) and previous disabling stroke, total number of risk factors for dementia (odds ratio = 2.02, 95% confidence interval = 1.26-3.25, P = 0.004) and a Cambridge Cognition Examination-Revised score below 80 at baseline (odds ratio = 3.50, 95% confidence interval = 1.29-9.49, P = 0.014). Our unique longitudinal study showed cognitive decline following stroke occurs in two stages, a period of cognitive stability followed by rapid decline before a diagnosis of dementia. This pattern suggests stroke may predispose survivors for dementia by diminishing cognitive reserve but with a smaller impact on cognitive function, where cognitive decline may be precipitated by subsequent events, e.g. another cerebrovascular event. This supports the assertion that the development of vascular dementia can be stepwise even when patients have small stroke lesions.

Worse outcomes linked to ethnicity for early inflammatory arthritis in England and Wales: a national cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess variability in care quality and treatment outcomes across ethnicities in early inflammatory arthritis (EIA).

METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study in England and Wales from May 2018 to March 2020, including patients with a suspected/confirmed EIA diagnosis. Care quality was assessed against six metrics defined by national guidelines. Clinical outcomes were measured using DAS28. Outcomes between ethnic groups ('White', 'Black', 'Asian', 'Mixed', 'Other') were compared, and adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 35 807 eligible patients were analysed. Of those, 30 643 (85.6%) were White and 5164 (14.6%) were from ethnic minorities: 1035 (2.8%) Black; 2617 (7.3%) Asian; 238 (0.6%) Mixed; 1274 (3.5%) Other. In total, 12 955 patients had confirmed EIA, of whom 11 315 were White and 1640 were from ethnic minorities: 314 (2.4%) Black; 927 (7.1%) Asian; 70 (0.5%) Mixed; 329 (2.5%) Other. A total of 14 803 patients were assessed by rheumatology within three weeks, and 5642 started treatment within six weeks of referral. There were no significant differences by ethnicity. Ethnic minority patients had lower odds of disease remission at three months [adjusted odds ratio 0.79 (95% CI: 0.65, 0.96)] relative to White patients. Ethnic minorities were significantly less likely to receive initial treatment withMTX[0.68 (0.52, 0.90)] or with glucocorticoids [0.63 (0.49, 0.80)].

CONCLUSION

We demonstrate that some ethnic minorities are less likely to achieve disease remission in three months following EIA diagnosis. This is not explained by delays in referral or time to treatment. Our data highlight the need for investigation into the possible drivers of these inequitable outcomes and reappraisal of EIA management pathways.

Flares after hydroxychloroquine reduction or discontinuation: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares following hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) reduction or discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance.

METHODS

We analysed prospective data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) cohort, enrolled from 33 sites within 15 months of SLE diagnosis and followed annually (1999-2019). We evaluated person-time contributed while on the initial HCQ dose ('maintenance'), comparing this with person-time contributed after a first dose reduction, and after a first HCQ discontinuation. We estimated time to first flare, defined as either subsequent need for therapy augmentation, increase of ≥4 points in the SLE Disease Activity Index-2000, or hospitalisation for SLE. We estimated adjusted HRs (aHRs) with 95% CIs associated with reducing/discontinuing HCQ (vs maintenance). We also conducted separate multivariable hazard regressions in each HCQ subcohort to identify factors associated with flare.

RESULTS

We studied 1460 (90% female) patients initiating HCQ. aHRs for first SLE flare were 1.20 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.38) and 1.56 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.86) for the HCQ reduction and discontinuation groups, respectively, versus HCQ maintenance. Patients with low educational level were at particular risk of flaring after HCQ discontinuation (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.87). Prednisone use at time-zero was associated with over 1.5-fold increase in flare risk in all HCQ subcohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

SLE flare risk was higher after HCQ taper/discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. Decisions to maintain, reduce or stop HCQ may affect specific subgroups differently, including those on prednisone and/or with low education. Further study of special groups (eg, seniors) may be helpful.

SPEAKS study: study protocol of a multisite feasibility trial of the Specialist Psychotherapy with Emotion for Anorexia in Kent and Sussex (SPEAKS) intervention for outpatients with anorexia nervosa or otherwise specified feeding and eating disorders, anorexia nervosa type

INTRODUCTION

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a severe mental health condition associated with high mortality rates and significantly impaired quality of life. National guidelines outline psychotherapeutic interventions as treatments of choice for adults with AN, but outcomes are limited and therapy drop-out high, resulting in calls for new innovative treatments. The Specialist Psychotherapy with Emotion for Anorexia in Kent and Sussex (SPEAKS) research programme sought to develop the SPEAKS intervention avoiding some difficulties inherent in development of earlier interventions, such unclear hypotheses about change processes. SPEAKS focuses on a core hypothesised maintaining factor (emotional experience) with clear proposed model of change. The current feasibility trial aims to provide an initial test of SPEAKS and inform design of a full randomised controlled trial protocol.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study employs a multisite, single-arm, within-group, mixed-methods design. Up to 60 participants (36 therapy completers) meeting inclusion criteria will be offered the SPEAKS intervention instead of treatment-as-usual (TAU). SPEAKS is a weekly psychotherapy lasting nine to 12 months, provided by trained and experienced eating disorders therapists. All other clinical input remains inline with TAU. Acceptability will be assessed using VAS scales and end of therapy interview. Reach and recruitment, such as recruitment yield, will be monitored. To support sample size estimation and economic estimation, data pertaining to eating disorder-related symptoms will be recorded every 3 months, alongside service usage and intervention-specific measures. Videoed therapy sessions will inform model adherence. Additional analyses coding videoed therapy will test SPEAKS change process hypotheses.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been granted by London-Bromley Research Ethics Committee (NHS Rec Reference: 19/LO/1530). Data will be disseminated via high-impact, peer-reviewed journals (Open Access preferred), conferences, service user and charity networks (eg, UK charity BEAT) and through a free open conference hosted by National Health Service Trusts and Higher Education Institutions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN11778891.

TRIAL STATUS

Recruitment began on 12 December 2019 and ends on 28 February 2021. All data will be collected and the trial ended by 28 February 2022.

PROTOCOL VERSION

SPEAKS protocol V.3.0 (30 August 2020). Changes were made to the original protocol due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A further set of changes were made to incorporate the measures of change processes, resulting in this being the third version of the protocol.