Predicting mortality after acute coronary syndromes in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

QRISK3 underestimates the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with COPD

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The extent to which the excess CVD risk is captured by risk factors in QRISK, a widely used CVD risk scoring tool, is not well studied.

METHODS

We created an incidence cohort of diagnosed COPD patients from the United Kingdom (UK) Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database (January 1998-July 2018). The outcome was a composite of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. Sex-specific age-standardised incidence ratios (SIR) were compared with values for the UK primary-care population. The observed 10-year CVD risk was derived using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and was compared with predicted 10-year risk from the QRISK3 tool.

RESULTS

13 208 patients (mean age 64.9 years, 45% women) were included. CVD incidence was 3.53 events per 100 person-years. The SIR of CVD was 1.71 (95% CI 1.61 to 1.75) in women and 1.62 (95%CI 1.54-1.64) in men. SIR was particularly high among patients younger than 65 years (women=2.13 (95% CI 1.94 to 2.19); men=1.86 (95% CI 1.74 to 1.90)). On average, the observed 10-year risk was 52% higher than QRISK predicted score (33.5% vs 22.1%). The difference was higher in patients younger than 65 years (observed risk 82% higher than predicted).

CONCLUSION

People living with COPD are at a significantly heightened risk of CVD over and beyond their predicted risk. This is particularly the case for younger people whose 10-year CVD risk can be >80% higher than predicted. Risk scoring tools must be validated and revised to provide accurate CVD predictions in patients with COPD.

Oral nitrate supplementation improves cardiovascular risk markers in COPD: ON-BC, a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Short-term studies suggest that dietary nitrate (NO3 -) supplementation may improve the cardiovascular risk profile, lowering blood pressure (BP) and enhancing endothelial function. It is not clear if these beneficial effects are sustained and whether they apply in people with COPD, who have a worse cardiovascular profile than those without COPD. Nitrate-rich beetroot juice (NR-BRJ) is a convenient dietary source of nitrate.

METHODS

The ON-BC trial was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled parallel group study in stable COPD patients with home systolic BP (SBP) measurement ≥130 mmHg. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1) using computer-generated, block randomisation to either 70 mL NR-BRJ (400 mg NO3 -) (n=40) or an otherwise identical nitrate-depleted placebo juice (0 mg NO3 -) (n=41), once daily for 12 weeks. The primary end-point was between-group change in home SBP measurement. Secondary outcomes included change in 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and measures of endothelial function (reactive hyperaemia index (RHI) and augmentation index normalised to a heart rate of 75 beats·min-1 (AIx75)) using an EndoPAT device. Plasma nitrate and platelet function were also measured.

RESULTS

Compared with placebo, active treatment lowered SBP (Hodges-Lehmann treatment effect -4.5 (95% CI -5.9- -3.0) mmHg), and improved 6MWD (30.0 (95% CI 15.7-44.2) m; p<0.001), RHI (0.34 (95% CI 0.03-0.63); p=0.03) and AIx75 (-7.61% (95% CI -14.3- -0.95%); p=0.026).

CONCLUSIONS

In people with COPD, prolonged dietary nitrate supplementation in the form of beetroot juice produces a sustained reduction in BP, associated with an improvement in endothelial function and exercise capacity.

Counseling Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Traveling to High Altitude

Bloch, Konrad E., Talant M. Sooronbaev, Silvia Ulrich, Mona Lichtblau, and Michael Furian. Clinician's corner: counseling patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease traveling to high altitude. High Alt Med Biol. 24:158-166, 2023.-Mountain travel is increasingly popular also among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a highly prevalent condition often associated with cardiovascular and systemic manifestations. Recent studies have shown that nonhypercapnic and only mildly hypoxemic lowlanders with moderate to severe airflow obstruction owing to COPD experience dyspnea, exercise limitation, and sleep disturbances when traveling up to 3,100 m. Altitude-related adverse health effects (ARAHE) in patients with COPD include severe hypoxemia, which may be asymptomatic but expose patients to the risk of excessive systemic and pulmonary hypertension, cardiac arrhythmia, and even myocardial or cerebral ischemia. In addition, hypobaric hypoxia may impair postural control, psycho-motor, and cognitive performance in patients with COPD during altitude sojourns. Randomized, placebo-controlled trials have shown that preventive treatment with oxygen at night or with acetazolamide reduces the risk of ARAHE in patients with COPD while preventive dexamethasone treatment improves oxygenation and altitude-induced excessive sleep apnea, and lowers systemic and pulmonary artery pressure. This clinical review provides suggestions for pretravel assessment and preparations and measures during travel that may reduce the risk of ARAHE and contribute to pleasant mountain journeys of patients with COPD.

Development and validation of dynamic models to predict postdischarge mortality risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction: results from China Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry

OBJECTIVES

The risk of adverse events and prognostic factors are changing in different time phases after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The incidence of adverse events is considerable in the early period after AMI hospitalisation. Therefore, dynamic risk prediction is needed to guide postdischarge management of AMI. This study aimed to develop a dynamic risk prediction instrument for patients following AMI.

DESIGN

A retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort.

SETTING

108 hospitals in China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 23 887 patients after AMI in the China Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry were included in this analysis.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality.

RESULTS

In multivariable analyses, age, prior stroke, heart rate, Killip class, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), in-hospital percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), recurrent myocardial ischaemia, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure (HF) during hospitalisation, antiplatelet therapy and statins at discharge were independently associated with 30-day mortality. Variables related to mortality between 30 days and 2 years included age, prior renal dysfunction, history of HF, AMI classification, heart rate, Killip class, haemoglobin, LVEF, in-hospital PCI, HF during hospitalisation, HF worsening within 30 days after discharge, antiplatelet therapy, β blocker and statin use within 30 days after discharge. The inclusion of adverse events and medications significantly improved the predictive performance of models without these indexes (likelihood ratio test p<0.0001). These two sets of predictors were used to establish dynamic prognostic nomograms for predicting mortality in patients with AMI. The C indexes of 30-day and 2-year prognostic nomograms were 0.85 (95% CI 0.83-0.88) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.81-0.84) in derivation cohort, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.86) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.84) in validation cohort, with satisfactory calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

We established dynamic risk prediction models incorporating adverse event and medications. The nomograms may be useful instruments to help prospective risk assessment and management of AMI.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01874691.

Methylation of SERPINA1 gene promoter may predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients affected by acute coronary syndrome

Background

Diagnostic biomarkers for detecting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients are not available. SERPINA1, coding for the most potent circulating anti-inflammatory protein in the lung, has been found to be differentially methylated in blood cells from COPD patients. This study aimed to investigate the methylation profile of SERPINA1 in blood cells from ACS patients, with (COPD+) or without COPD (COPD−).

Methods

Blood samples were from 115 ACS patients, including 30 COPD+ and 85 COPD− according to lung function phenotype, obtained with spirometry. DNA treated with sodium bisulfite was PCR-amplified at SERPINA1 promoter region. Methylation analysis was carried out by sequencing the PCR products. Lymphocytes count in ACS patients was recorded at hospital admission and discharge.

Results

SERPINA1 was hypermethylated in 24/30 (80%) COPD+ and 48/85 (56.5%) COPD− (p < 0.05). Interestingly, at hospital discharge, lymphocytes count was higher in COPD− patients carrying SERPINA1 hypermethylated (1.98 × 10³ ± 0.6 cell/µl) than in COPD− carrying SERPINA1 hypomethylated (1.7 × 10³ ± 0.48 cell/µl) (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

SERPINA1 is hypermethylated in blood cells from COPD+ patients. COPD− carrying SERPINA1 hypermethylated and high lymphocytes count may be at risk of COPD development. Therefore, SERPINA1 hypermethylation may represent a potential biomarker for predicting COPD development in ACS patients.

Predicting 6-Month Mortality for Older Adults Hospitalized With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Older adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have higher prevalence of functional impairments, including deficits in cognition, strength, and sensory domains, than their younger counterparts.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and evaluate the prognostic utility of a risk model for 6-month post-AMI mortality in older adults that incorporates information about functional impairments.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01755052).

SETTING

94 hospitals throughout the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

3006 persons aged 75 years or older who were hospitalized with AMI and discharged alive.

MEASUREMENTS

Functional impairments were assessed during hospitalization via direct measurement (cognition, mobility, muscle strength) or self-report (vision, hearing). Clinical variables associated with mortality in prior risk models were ascertained by chart review. Seventy-two candidate variables were selected for inclusion, and backward selection and Bayesian model averaging were used to derive (n = 2004 participants) and validate (n = 1002 participants) a model for 6-month mortality.

RESULTS

Participants' mean age was 81.5 years, 44.4% were women, and 10.5% were nonwhite. There were 266 deaths (8.8%) within 6 months. The final risk model included 15 variables, 4 of which were not included in prior risk models: hearing impairment, mobility impairment, weight loss, and lower patient-reported health status. The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow P > 0.05) and showed good discrimination (area under the curve for the validation cohort = 0.84). Adding functional impairments significantly improved model performance, as evidenced by category-free net reclassification improvement indices of 0.21 (P = 0.008) for hearing impairment and 0.26 (P < 0.001) for mobility impairment.

LIMITATION

The model was not externally validated.

CONCLUSION

A newly developed model for 6-month post-AMI mortality in older adults was well calibrated and had good discriminatory ability. This model may be useful in decision making at hospital discharge.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Effect of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease on In-Hospital Mortality and Clinical Outcomes After ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

There is controversy regarding in-hospital mortality, revascularization, and other adverse outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We queried the 2003 to 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample databases to identify patients aged ≥18 years with a primary diagnosis of STEMI. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the association of COPD with in-hospital clinical outcomes. Patients with COPD comprised 13.2% of 2,120,005 patients with STEMI. COPD was associated with older age, Medicare insurance, greater co-morbidities, and lower socioeconomic status. Compared with non-COPD patients, patients with COPD had higher inpatient mortality even after adjustment for multiple potential other factors (12.5% vs 8.6%, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.13, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.15, p <0.001). Patients with COPD were more likely to develop new-onset heart failure (AOR 2.01, 95% CI 1.99 to 2.03), cardiogenic shock (AOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.26), and acute respiratory failure (AOR 2.46, 95% CI 2.43 to 2.50) during their hospital stay. Patients with COPD were less likely to undergo diagnostic angiographies and any revascularization procedures. The mean length of stay (6.0 vs 4.6 days; p <0.001) was greater in patients with COPD, as were hospital average hospital charges ($63,956 vs $58,536; p <0.001). In conclusion, among patients with STEMI, COPD is associated with a greater risk of in-hospital mortality, new-onset heart failure, acute respiratory failure, and cardiogenic shock.