Developing drowning prevention strategies for rivers through the use of a modified Delphi process

Conceptual definition for drowning prevention: a Delphi study

BACKGROUND

Expanding support for drowning prevention is evidenced by interlinked Resolutions at the United Nations (2021) and World Health Assembly (2023). While progress has accelerated, a universally agreed definition for drowning prevention remains absent. Here, we aim to develop a conceptual definition of drowning prevention using the Delphi method.

METHODS

First, we conducted a document review to guide our development and consensus-building process. Then, we formed an advisory group and recruited participants with diverse expertise to contribute to Delphi-method surveys. In the first round, participants selected from draft concepts to build a definition and delineate between the terms drowning prevention and water safety. In the second round, we presented a codeveloped definition, and three statements based on first-round findings. We then sought participant feedback where ≥70% support was considered consensus-based agreement.

RESULTS

Participants (n=134) were drawn from community (7.46%), policy (26.87%), research (40.30%) and technical backgrounds (25.37%), and low-income and middle-income countries (38.06%). In the first- round, half (50.74%) disagreed with the proposition that drowning prevention was synonymous to water safety, while 40.30% agreed. The second- round achieved consensus-based agreement (97.27%) for the definition: Drowning prevention is defined as a multidisciplinary approach that reduces drowning risk and builds resilience by implementing evidence-informed measures that address hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities to protect an individual, community or population against fatal and non-fatal drowning.

CONCLUSION

The Delphi method enabled the codevelopment of our conceptual definition for drowning prevention. Agreement on the definition forms the basis for strengthened multisectoral action, and partnerships with health and sustainable development agendas. Defining drowning prevention in terms of vulnerability and exposure might increase focus on social determinants and other upstream factors critical to prevention efforts.

Burden of fatal drowning in California, 2005-2019

OBJECTIVE

To characterise risk factors for fatal drowning in California, USA to inform priorities for prevention, policy and research.

METHODS

This retrospective population-based epidemiological review of death certificate data evaluated fatal drowning events in California from 2005 to 2019. Unintentional, intentional, and undetermined drowning deaths and rates were described by person (age, sex, race) and context-based variables (region and body of water).

RESULTS

California's fatal drowning rate was 1.48 per 100 000 population (n=9237). Highest total fatal drowning rates occurred in the lower population density northern regions, among older adults (75-84 years: 2.54 per 100 000 population; 85+: 3.47 per 100 000 population) and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons (2.84 per 100 000 population). Male drowning deaths occurred at 2.7 times the rate of females; drowning deaths occurred mainly in swimming pools (27%), rivers/canals (22.4%) and coastal waters (20.2%). The intentional fatal drowning rate increased 89% during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

California's overall fatal drowning rate was similar to the rest of the USA but differed among subpopulations. These divergences from national data, along with regional differences in drowning population and context-related characteristics, underscore the need for state and regional level analyses to inform drowning prevention policy, programmes and research.

Identifying strategic priorities for advancing global drowning prevention: a Delphi method

INTRODUCTION

The burden of drowning is gaining prominence on the global agenda. Two United Nations system resolutions in 3 years reflect rising political support, but priorities remain undefined, and the issue lacks a global strategy. We aimed to identify strategic priorities for advancing global drowning prevention using a modified Delphi method.

METHODS

An advisory group was formed, and participants recruited with diverse expertise and backgrounds. We used document review, and data extracted from global health partnerships to identify strategic domains and draft priorities for global drowning prevention. Participants rated the priorities in two Delphi rounds, guided by relevance, feasibility and impact on equity, and where consensus was ≥70% of participants rating the priority as critical.

RESULTS

We recruited 134 participants from research (40.2%), policy (26.9%), technical (25.4%) and community (7.5%) backgrounds, with 38.1% representing low- and middle-income countries. We drafted 75 priorities. Following two Delphi rounds, 50 priorities were selected across the seven domains of research and further contextualisation, best practice guidance, capacity building, engagement with other health and sustainable development agendas, high-level political advocacy, multisectoral action and strengthening inclusive global governance. Participants scored priorities based on relevance (43.2%), feasibility (29.4%) and impact on equity (27.4%).

CONCLUSION

Our study identifies global priorities for drowning prevention and provides evidence for advocacy of drowning prevention in all pertinent policies, and in all relevant agendas. The priorities can be applied by funders to guide investment, by researchers to frame study questions, by policymakers to contrast views of expert groups and by national coalitions to anchor national drowning prevention plans. We identify agendas including disaster risk reduction, sustainable development, child and adolescent health, and climate resilience, where drowning prevention might offer co-benefits. Finally, our findings offer a strategic blueprint as the field looks to accelerate action, and develop a global strategy for drowning prevention.

Caregivers’ Compliance and Perception of Daycare Centers—A Community-Based Childhood Drowning Prevention Intervention Implemented in Rural Bangladesh

Drowning was one of the most prevalent causes of death worldwide for children under five in 2020. Drowning was the second leading cause of death for children under five in Bangladesh, while 58% of all deaths in the 1–5 years old age group resulted from drowning. Adult supervision helps prevent child drowning in rural areas where water bodies are easily accessible and located very close to homes. This paper aims to assess caregivers’ compliance and perception of community daycare centers in rural Bangladesh, piloted as a child drowning prevention intervention. In this longitudinal study, each child enrolled in the daycare intervention was visited and data on compliance and satisfaction with the daycare were collected. Descriptive statistics on daycare attendance, patterns of supervision, and caregivers’ perceptions about daycare were reported. When inquired about daycare attendance (n = 226,552), a total of 77.4% of children (n = 175,321) were found to attend daycare. The distance from homes and an adult’s unavailability to take the child to daycare were the most common reasons for not attending or discontinuing enrollment. The majority of children (76.4%) were supervised by their mothers during daycare closures. A total of 67.7% of respondents perceived daycare to be a safe place, where children also developed cognitive (51.7%) and social skills (50.6%). There were no incidences of drowning among children while attending daycare. Rural families were found to be compliant with the daycare and professed it to be a safe place protecting children from drowning and other injuries, while allowing them to focus on household chores or income-generating activities. These findings indicate a potential for the expansion of this intervention in rural Bangladesh and similar settings.

Drowning in the Eastern Mediterranean region: a systematic literature review of the epidemiology, risk factors and strategies for prevention

INTRODUCTION

Globally, drowning is a significant cause of preventable mortality and morbidity. The Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) comprises 22 countries of extreme disparity in income and is a region impacted by conflict and migration. We systematically review literature published on drowning in the EMR.

METHODS

Peer-reviewed literature (limited to original research) was identified using Embase, PubMed, Scopus, SportsDiscus, and Web of Science databases. Literature was independently dual screened at title/abstract and full text stages with dual data extraction (20% of included studies). Studies were included if they reported epidemiology, risk/protective factors and/or prevention strategies for drowning (unintentional and intentional; fatal and non-fatal) of residents, tourists or migrants in the EMR. Literature was assessed against the [Australian] National Health and Medical Research Council's Levels of Evidence.

RESULTS

Seventy-two studies were included in this review (epidemiology 68 studies; risk/protective factor 13 studies; prevention strategies 19 studies). Iran (n = 27), Saudia Arabia (n = 11) and Pakistan (n = 10) recorded the largest number of dedicated studies. Studies predominately focused on unintentional drowning. Ninety-two percent of included studies (n = 66) were ranked as being low evidence (level IV). The majority of studies explored drowning among children and adolescents (0-19 years). All-age fatal drowning rates varied from a low of 0.48 per 100,000 (United Arab Emirates; 2002; Ministry of Health death registry data) to a high of 18.5 per 100,000 (Egypt; 2014-15; WHO mortality database). Commonly identified risk factors included being male, young age, submersion time and resident status. Common prevention strategies public education, lifeguard supervision, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

DISCUSSION

Gaps in understanding of drowning burden in some countries within the region, as well as region-wide risk factor identification for adult drowning, intentional and migration-related drowning, impair the ability of nations to advance drowning prevention. There is a need for investment in implementation and evaluation of drowning prevention interventions in the EMR.

CONCLUSION

Drowning is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity in the EMR. The recent UN declaration on global drowning prevention may provide the impetus to invest in drowning prevention research, policy, and advocacy with the aim of reducing drowning-related harms in the EMR.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registration number: # CRD42021271215 .

Infant Drowning Prevention: Insights from a New Ecological Psychology Approach

Drowning causes significant mortality and morbidity globally, and infants (0-4 years of age) are disproportionately impacted. In a groundbreaking approach to pediatric drowning prevention, ecological psychology has been used to investigate the relationship between infants' perceptual-motor development and their behavior around bodies of water. In this review, we summarize recent research findings in the field of ecological psychology and apply these to the prevention of infant drowning. Studies have linked infants' avoidance of falls into the water with locomotor experience and type of accessway into bodies of water. Through crawling experience, infants learn to perceive the risk of falling into water and start adapting their behavior to avoid drop-offs leading into water. Infants tend to enter deep water more when the access is via a slope than via a drop-off. We propose that ecological psychology can enhance infant drowning prevention interventions. The aim is to create an additional layer of protection, the perceptual information layer, in addition to existing strategies, such as supervision and barriers. This new protective layer can be a powerful tool to further highlight the risk of entering the water and reduce infant drowning-related mortality and morbidity.

Drowning prevention: turning the tide on a leading killer

Drowning is a leading killer, particularly of children and young adults, yet has been greatly neglected. Despite accounting for a higher number of deaths than many other substantial public health issues, drowning has not benefitted from the targeted attention it requires, which is particularly tragic because low cost and effective drowning prevention interventions exist. Therefore, the recent UN General Assembly's adoption of a resolution on global drowning prevention is a historic first, and offers an exciting opportunity by providing a comprehensive framework and a practical roadmap that a range of actors and sectors, including governments, can follow to address the challenge of drowning prevention.

Application of the PRECEDE-PROCEED model in the development of evidence-informed interventions for drowning prevention: a mixed-methods study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Drowning is a global public health threat, disproportionately impacting low-income and middle-income countries. In the Philippines, it is estimated that more than 5200 people die from drowning per annum. This number is likely to be higher than currently estimated with the inclusion of disaster-related and transportation-related drowning. Drowning is preventable if appropriate preventive interventions are put in place which redress known risk factors.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study uses the PRECEDE-PROCEED model (PPM), an eight-step health promotion planning and evaluation model for building and improving intervention programmes. This mixed-methods study, which can be used in any location, will be implemented in Los Baňos, Laguna, Philippines, identified as an area of concern for drowning. Using the PPM, data on drowning will be collected from death records, community observation, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and community survey. A range of analytical methods will be used to explore drowning data including univariate and χ² analyses, analysis of variance, relative risk and calculating rates using population data. The quantitative data and themes drawn from qualitative data will be used to populate the first four phases of the PPM. Following the data collection, the remaining stages of the PPM will be designed and implemented in the barangay (village) with the highest drowning rate.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has obtained ethical clearance from the University of the Philippines Manila Research Ethics Board (UPMREB 2017-425-01). Study findings will be disseminated through workshops and presentations to the local community as well as through peer-reviewed literature and conference presentations. The PPM has rarely been applied to drowning prevention and it is the aim that the study described in this protocol is expanded across other areas of the Philippines and to other countries with a high drowning burden to inform prevention efforts.

Day care as a strategy for drowning prevention in children under 6 years of age in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Drowning is responsible for an estimated 320,000 deaths a year, and over 90% of drowning mortality occurs in low- to middle-income countries (LMICs), with peak drowning rates among children aged 1 to 4 years. In this age group, mortality due to drowning is particularly common in rural settings and about 75% of drowning accidents happen in natural bodies of water close to the home. Providing adequate child supervision can protect children from drowning, and organized formal day care programs could offer a way to achieve this.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objective • To assess the effects of day care programs for children under 6 years of age on drowning-related mortality or morbidity, or on total drowning accidents (fatal and non-fatal), in LMICs, compared to no day care programs or other drowning prevention interventions Secondary objectives • To assess the effects of day care programs in LMICs for children under 6 years of age on unsafe water exposure • To assess safety within these programs (e.g. transmission of infection within day care, physical or sexual abuse of children within day care) • To assess the incidence of unintentional injury within these programs • To describe the cost-effectiveness of such programs, in relation to averted drowning-related mortality or morbidity SEARCH METHODS: On November 23, 2019, and for an update on August 18, 2020, we searched MEDLINE (PubMed), Embase, CENTRAL, ERIC, and CINAHL, as well as two trial registries. On December 16, 2019, and for an update on February 9, 2021, we searched 12 other resources, including websites of organizations that develop programs targeted to children.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized, quasi-randomized, and non-randomized controlled studies (with explicitly listed specific study design features) that implemented formal day care programs as a single program or combined with additional out-of-day care components (such as educational activities aimed at preventing injury or drowning or early childhood development activities) for children of preschool age (below 6 years of age) in LMICs for comparison with no such programs or with other drowning prevention interventions. Studies had to report at least one outcome related to drowning or injury prevention for the children enrolled.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently performed study selection and data extraction, as well as risk of bias and GRADE assessment.

MAIN RESULTS

Two non-randomized observational studies, conducted in rural Bangladesh, involving a total of 252,631 participants, met the inclusion criteria for this review. One of these studies compared a formal day care program combined with parent education, playpens provided to parents, and community-based activities as additional out-of-day care components versus no such program. Overall we assessed this study to be at moderate risk of bias (moderate risk of bias due to confounding, low risk of bias for other domains). This study showed that implementation of a formal day care program combined with parent education, provision of playpens to parents, and community-based activities, in a rural area with a high drowning incidence, likely reduces the risk of death from drowning over the study period of 4 years and 8 months compared to no day care program (hazard ratio 0.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06 to 0.58; 1 study, 136,577 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Drowning morbidity (non-fatal drowning resulting in complications), total drowning (fatal and non-fatal), unsafe water exposure, and program safety (e.g. transmission of infection within day care, physical or sexual abuse of children within day care) were not reported, nor was the incidence of other unintentional injuries. Cost-effectiveness was reported as 812 USD (95% CI 589 to 1777) per disability-adjusted life-year averted as a consequence of drowning (moderate-certainty evidence). The second study compared day care programs with or without playpens provided to parents as an additional component versus only playpens provided to parents as an alternative drowning prevention intervention. Overall we assessed the study to be at critical risk of bias because we judged bias due to confounding to be at critical risk. As the certainty of evidence was very low, we are uncertain about the effects on drowning mortality rate of implementing a day care program compared to providing playpens (rate ratio 0.25, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.41; 1 study; 76,575 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Likewise, we are uncertain about the effects of a day care program with playpens provided as an additional component versus playpens provided alone (rate ratio 0.06, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.12; 1 study, 45,460 participants; very low-certainty evidence). The other outcomes of interest - drowning morbidity, total drowning, unsafe water exposure, program safety, incidence of other unintentional injuries, and cost-effectiveness - were not reported.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review provides evidence suggesting that a day care program with additional out-of-day care components such as community-based education, parent education, and playpens provided to parents likely reduces the drowning mortality risk in regions with a high burden of drowning compared to no intervention.

Observing Patterns of River Usage

Rivers are a leading location for drowning, yet little is known about people’s usage of these waterways. This pilot study aimed to test the use of direct observations to calculate river usage. Direct observations were conducted at regular intervals within defined zones at four river drowning locations in Australia (including weekends and the Australia Day national public holiday). Data recorded were date and time of observation; total people (including males, females, children, and adults); and number of people on, in, and beside the water. Univariate analysis with mean (SD) and range was conducted. Interrater reliability for observations was determined using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) (one-way random-effects, average measures model), with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Across 149 time points, 309 observations resulted in 13,326 river interactions observed by multiple observers. There was an average of 39 people (M = 39.4, SD = 29.4, range = 0–137) per observation, 44 people (M = 44.2, SD = 32.7, range = 0–37) on an average weekend, and 97 people (M = 96.8, SD = 58.1, range = 20–190) on Australia Day. More females (M = 20.6, SD = 16.0, range = 0–83) than males (M = 18.3, SD = 14.5, range = 0–68) were observed. More people were observed in the water (M = 20.6, SD = 20.4, range = 0–84) than beside or on the water. Interrater reliability was excellent, consistently above 0.900 for all variables collected (apart from the variable of beside the river). Despite males accounting for 80% of river drowning fatalities, more females were observed than males. Increased visitation on the Australia Day public holiday may be linked to increased drowning risk. This study detailed a simple approach to data collection, exploring exposure within a defined zone at river locations. River usage is dynamic, with people’s movement in and out of the water changing their risk exposure. Observational-based data collection for drowning, particularly for rivers, is an important yet highly neglected area of research.