Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

'I actually thought that I was going to die': Lessons on the rip current hazard from survivor experiences

BACKGROUND

Rip currents are strong, narrow, fast-flowing currents of water that occur on many beaches and in Australia contributing to 26 drowning deaths and several thousand lifeguard/lifesaver rescues each year. Educating the public about the rip current hazard is a primary focus of beach safety practitioners, but there has been a lack of qualitative research exploring the firsthand experiences of being caught in a rip current to assist in this regard. The aim of this study was to analyse interviews of rip current survivors to understand more about how people react when unintentionally caught in a rip current in order to help guide future public education to mitigate rip current drowning.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 56 individuals (primarily Australian-born) about their experience of being caught in a rip current. Interviewees were recruited via an online survey and varied in age and self-reported swimming ability.

RESULTS

Thematic analysis revealed three key temporal elements to the rip current experience: Before the Rip in which lack of awareness and knowledge, complacency, over-confidence, and attitude were prevalent themes; During the Rip which identified panic and temporary inhibition of decision-making, physical response, prior experience, and relationships with other beach users as themes; and After the Rip where post-rip effects and rip safety messaging and education were key themes. The importance of experiential immersion was a prevalent thread throughout all phases of the thematic analysis.

DISCUSSION

Our research shows that being caught in a rip current can be an intense and traumatic experience and that lessons learned from survivors have significant implications for improving existing and future rip current education efforts. In this regard, we provide several recommendations based on evidence-based insights gained from our interviews including the development of immersive rip current experience using virtual reality.

SO WHAT

Despite the prevalence of rip currents causing drowning deaths and rescues, there has been a lack of qualitative research on firsthand experiences to aid in public education. These interviews emphasise the intense and traumatic nature of being caught in a rip current, underscoring the need for improved rip current education to aid in prevention of this, often harrowing, experience.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessing violence and injury prevention plans, strategies and indicators in eighteen Pacific Islands countries: an environmental scan

Background

Similar to many other resource poor settings, due to competing priorities, injury is often neglected in the Pacific Islands despite being a prevalent cause of death and disability. This study identifies, and synthesises existing plans and strategies, and assesses progress against indicators for the prevention of violence and injury in 18 Pacific Islands nations to identify gaps and highlight opportunities.

Methods

An environmental scan of known government repositories and Google Advanced was conducted to identify publicly available documents describing/evaluating national-level injury prevention strategies and plans in the Pacific Islands. Data were extracted on the strategy/plan, country, government department responsible, indicators and related progress.

Findings

We identified 44 relevant documents. Most were published in more resourced countries (e.g., Fiji, Cook Islands) and described strategies/plans relating to traffic injury, injury from natural disaster and/or intimate partner violence. No strategies/plans to prevent injury mechanisms of drowning, falls, suffocation, burns, or electrocution were identified. Progress against only one indicator was reported for road traffic injury in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

Interpretation

This study suggests that there would be benefit in Pacific Islands nations to develop more robust data systems to assess progress against indicators of existing strategies and plans for traffic-injury, natural disaster and intimate partner violence. Development of strategies and implementation plans to address neglected injury areas such as drowning and falls which account for a significant burden of injury in the Pacific Islands is also recommended.

Funding

This work was funded by the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific (RG 221962).

Is further investment in shark management in New South Wales worthwhile? Surfer views on coastal public health issues

OBJECTIVE

To explore the views of surfers on investment in shark management compared to other coastal public health issues.

METHODS

We examined the responses of 672 New South Wales (NSW) resident surfers to the Global Surfer Survey, which collected demographic information and asked surfers about which topics they believe additional funding should be devoted to.

RESULTS

Half of surfers in NSW (50%) are worried about sharks while surfing only a very small proportion (16%) are supportive of additional funding for shark detection and management programs, with most being in favour of funding directed at ocean cleanliness (40%) and drowning prevention (29%).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings indicate surfers are more supportive of investment in ocean cleanliness and drowning prevention measures, as compared to shark mitigation.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

Ocean users in general face a significantly greater risk (48 times) of drowning than shark bites. Given the relative public health burden of the two issues, is the significant financial investment in shark mitigation worth it?

The burden, risk factors and prevention strategies for drowning in Türkiye: a systematic literature review

INTRODUCTION

Drowning is a public health problem in Türkiye, as in the rest of the world. This study aims to systematically review the literature on drowning in Türkiye with a focus on data sources, epidemiology, risk factors and prevention strategies.

METHODS

Literature searches were conducted using PubMed, SPORTSDiscus, Scopus, Web of Science, Turk MEDLINE, Google Scholar and Google Akademik (Turkish language). Studies (limited to original research written in English and Turkish) reporting drowning (unintentional and intentional; fatal and non-fatal) of residents and tourists in Türkiye were independently dual screened at the title and abstract and full text stages. Study quality was assessed using JBI checklists and evidence level assessed based on study design.

RESULTS

From a total of 917 studies, 49 met the inclusion criteria. Most (51%) focused on unintentional fatal drowning. Included studies were most commonly analytical cross-sectional studies (n = 23) and case series (n = 20) meaning the evidence level was low or very low for 48 (98%) studies. Fifteen studies examined drowning at the national level, while sub-national studies (n = 30) focused on urban areas across three provinces: Antalya (n = 6), Istanbul (n = 6), Izmir (n = 4). There was little consensus on risk factors beyond male drowning risk, and no data reported on implemented or evaluated drowning prevention interventions.

DISCUSSION

There is a need for more national-level studies to identify the causes of drowning and to guide intervention implementation and evaluation to inform policy makers and donors. Currently official data is limited in its detail, providing age and gender data only, hampering efforts to identify, and thus address, causal factors for drowning.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

There is currently very little evidence to inform investment in effective drowning prevention interventions in Türkiye. To improve this, data collection systems on drowning in Türkiye need to be strengthened via the development a national drowning registry.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

#CRD42022382615.

The effect of the 'Swim Reaper' program on water safety awareness, drowning mortality and morbidity among males aged 15-34 years in Aotearoa, New Zealand

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

To increase water safety awareness among young males New Zealand introduced the Swim Reaper program in 2016. The program ran annually over summer and in 2018/19 an evaluation was conducted. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of the 2018/19 Swim Reaper social media-based campaign on self-reported water safety awareness and identify changes in fatal and nonfatal drowning rates for New Zealand resident males aged 15-34 years before and after the 2016 Swim Reaper program.

METHODS

Online surveys pre (December-2018) and post (February-March-2019) Swim Reaper campaign were used to estimate water safety awareness post-campaign relative to pre-campaign using negative binomial regression adjusted for potential confounders. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, adjusted for seasonality, explored changes in drowning mortality, hospital admissions and Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) claims pre and post program introduction (2016).

RESULTS

A total of 518 males responded (50.6% post-campaign). There were significant improvements (post vs. pre-campaign) in self-reported water safety awareness. ITS analysis showed a reduction in drowning related hospital admissions post relative to pre-program (RR = 0.47; [95%CI: 0.24-0.90]; p = 0.02).

DISCUSSION

Young males are an at-risk cohort for drowning and creating behavior change among this group can be challenging. Using a unique, humor-based approach the Swim Reaper program appears to be having some impact on self-reported water safety behaviors, as well as unintentional drowning-related hospitalization rates. Further evaluation, more clearly linked to campaign themes, is required to ascertain direct impact of the program.

CONCLUSION

The novelty and reach of the campaign within the context of a prevailing downward trend in drownings may provide support for social media-based programs targeting this hard-to-reach demographic.

Interpersonal Violence and Gender Inequality in Adolescents: A Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data From 1990 to 2019

PURPOSE

Interpersonal violence is a leading cause of adolescent deaths and disability. This study investigates sex differences in burden of interpersonal violence for adolescents and explores associations with gender inequality.

METHOD

Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we report numbers, proportions, rates of interpersonal violence deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for all ages, and rate of change (from 1990 to 2019) in adolescents aged 10-24 years disaggregated by sex and geography. We explored associations with gender inequality using gender inequality index.

RESULTS

One in four (24.8%) all-age interpersonal violence deaths are in adolescents. In 2019, the rate of deaths in adolescent males was almost six times higher than females (9.3 vs. 1.6 per 100,000); and since 1990, the rate of decline in DALYs for females was double than that for males (-28.9% vs. -12.7%). By contrast, the burden of sexual violence is disproportionately borne by adolescent females, with over double the rate than males (DALYs: 42.8 vs. 17.5 per 100,000). In countries with greater gender inequality, the male-to-female ratio (deaths and DALYs) was increased among older adolescents, pointing to benefits for males in more gender equal settings.

DISCUSSION

Social identities, relationships, and attitudes to violence are established in adolescence, which is an inflection point marking the emergence of disproportionate burdens of interpersonal violence. Our findings affirm that global agendas must be expanded to address interrelated factors driving multiple forms of interpersonal violence experienced by adolescents and reverberating to the next generation.

Examining the relationship between heatwaves and fatal drowning: a case study from Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND

Globally, drowning is a leading cause of injury-related harm, which is heavily impacted by environmental conditions. In Australia, fatal unintentional drowning peaks in summer, yet the impact of prolonged periods of hot weather (heatwave) on fatal drowning has not previously been explored.

METHODS

Using a case-crossover approach, we examined the difference in drowning risk between heatwave and non-heatwave days for the Australian state of Queensland from 2010 to 2019. Heatwave data, measured by the excess heat factor, were acquired from the Bureau of Meteorology. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated by sex, age of drowning decedent, category of drowning incident (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes) and heatwave severity. Excess drowning mortality during heatwaves was also calculated.

RESULTS

Analyses reveal increased fatal drowning risk during heatwave for males (IRR 1.22, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.61), people aged 65+ years (IRR 1.36, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.24), unintentional drowning (IRR 1.28, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.69) and during severe heatwaves (IRR 1.26, 95% CI0.88 to 1.82). There were 13 excess drowning deaths due to heatwave over the study period.

DISCUSSION

The findings confirm an increased risk of fatal drowning during heatwaves. With increased likelihood and severity of heatwaves, this information should be used to inform drowning prevention, in particular the timing of public awareness campaigns and patrolling of supervised aquatic locations.

CONCLUSIONS

Water safety and patrolling organisations, as well as first responders, need to prepare for more drowning deaths during heatwave conditions. In addition, drowning prevention education ahead of heatwaves is needed for recreational swimmers, and older people, particularly those with comorbidities which may be further exacerbated by a heatwave.

A 2-year prospective evaluation of airway clearance devices in foreign body airway obstructions

Aim

To collect, analyze and report the first prospective, industry-independent, data on airway clearance devices as novel foreign body airway obstruction interventions.

Methods

We recruited adult airway clearance device users between July 1, 2021 and June 30, 2023 using a centralized website and email follow-up. The data collection tool captured patient, responder, situation, and outcome variables. Multi-step respondent validation occurred using electronic and geolocation verification, a random selection follow-up process, and physician review of all submitted cases.

Results

We recruited 186 airway clearance device users (LifeVac©:157 [84.4%]; Dechoker©:29 [15.6%]). LifeVac© was the last intervention before foreign body airway obstruction relief in 151 of 157 cases. Of these, 150 survived to discharge. A basic life support intervention was used before LifeVac© in 119 cases, including the 6 cases where LifeVac© also failed. We identified two adverse events using LifeVac© (perioral bruising), while we could not ascertain whether another 7 were due to the foreign body or LifeVac© (3 = airway edema; 3 = oropharyngeal abrasions; 1 = esophageal perforation). Dechoker© was the last intervention before obstruction relief in 27 of 29 cases and all cases survived. A basic life support intervention was used before Dechoker© in 21 cases, including both where Dechoker© also failed. We identified one adverse event using Dechoker© (oropharyngeal abrasions).

Conclusion

Within these cases, airway clearance devices appear to be effective at relieving foreign body airway obstructions. However, this data should be considered preliminary and hypothesis generating due to several limitations. We urge the resuscitation community to proactively evaluate airway clearance devices to ensure the public remains updated with best practices.

Impact of a surfer rescue training program in Australia and New Zealand: a mixed methods evaluation

BACKGROUND

Surfers play a critical role in coastal drowning prevention, conservatively estimated to make as many rescues as beach lifeguards. The Surfer Rescue 24/7 (SR24/7) program is a coastal safety intervention in Australia and New Zealand that teaches surfers safe rescue skills and promotes prevention activities. This multi-part, mixed-methods study aimed to evaluate the impact of the SR24/7 program.

METHODS

The study consisted of three parts employing quantitative and qualitative methods: a retrospective survey of course participants, in-depth interviews with course participants who had conducted rescues, and an analysis of self-reported skills confidence ratings before and after the program.

RESULTS

Triangulated results from the three study components indicated that after the course, participants exhibited high levels of satisfaction with their experience in the program and would encourage others to attend, were more observant and aware of safety concerns while surfing, had a better understanding of ocean conditions and hazards, learned new rescue techniques and skills, grasped important course concepts related to their own personal safety, and improved their confidence in responding to an emergency situation. Several participants had conducted rescues in real life and indicated that the course was effective in providing them with the baseline knowledge and skills to keep safe while helping others in the ocean. This study also provides new insight on the role of surfers in coastal safety, specifically that surfers are engaged in a range of prevention activities before rescue is required.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite persistent challenges in combating coastal drowning rates, the SR24/7 program is an effective intervention that helps save lives. Importantly, this study provides evidence that the course successfully equips surfers with techniques to act responsibly and safely. Expanding coastal safety focus and resources towards surfers, an often-overlooked demographic in beach safety strategies, could substantially enhance community-level capacity to prevent and respond to ocean emergencies.

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Barriers to preschool aged children's participation in swimming lessons in New South Wales, Australia

ISSUE ADDRESSED

To understand barriers to uptake of subsidised swimming lessons by children aged 3-6 years old ('preschool aged children'), including from priority populations, in New South Wales (NSW).

METHODS

A thematic analysis of 4191 qualitative responses from parents/carers of preschool aged children describing barriers that resulted in their child's non-participation in subsidised swimming lessons in the past 12 months was conducted. Data, including parent/carer sociodemographic variables, were collected through registrations for the NSW Government's First Lap voucher program.

RESULTS

Seven overarching barriers to participation were identified: (1) child's disability or health needs; (2) swimming lesson affordability; (3) family or personal circumstances; (4) lack of or poor availability of swimming lessons; (5) parent/carer availability, including to fulfil participation requirements; (6) COVID-19 and (7) deprioritisation of formal swimming lessons due to parent/carer perceptions relating to its importance. These may limit the uptake of swimming lessons in preschool aged children, particularly those who are Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander, from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds, living with a disability, from low socioeconomic families and living in regional and remote areas.

CONCLUSION

Structural barriers must be addressed to increase uptake of swimming lessons in preschool aged children, particularly in priority populations, to reduce drowning risk. SO WHAT?: Evidence-based policy initiatives, with robust evaluation, should seek to address the availability and flexibility of swimming lessons, including for priority populations; complexities associated with supervision requirements; poor awareness of parents/carers of the importance of swimming for preschool aged children and the lack of continuity of swimming for children in out of home care.

Burden of fatal drowning in California, 2005-2019

OBJECTIVE

To characterise risk factors for fatal drowning in California, USA to inform priorities for prevention, policy and research.

METHODS

This retrospective population-based epidemiological review of death certificate data evaluated fatal drowning events in California from 2005 to 2019. Unintentional, intentional, and undetermined drowning deaths and rates were described by person (age, sex, race) and context-based variables (region and body of water).

RESULTS

California's fatal drowning rate was 1.48 per 100 000 population (n=9237). Highest total fatal drowning rates occurred in the lower population density northern regions, among older adults (75-84 years: 2.54 per 100 000 population; 85+: 3.47 per 100 000 population) and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons (2.84 per 100 000 population). Male drowning deaths occurred at 2.7 times the rate of females; drowning deaths occurred mainly in swimming pools (27%), rivers/canals (22.4%) and coastal waters (20.2%). The intentional fatal drowning rate increased 89% during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

California's overall fatal drowning rate was similar to the rest of the USA but differed among subpopulations. These divergences from national data, along with regional differences in drowning population and context-related characteristics, underscore the need for state and regional level analyses to inform drowning prevention policy, programmes and research.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the leading causes of mortality and disability worldwide, little comprehensive or recent evidence of the burden of NCDs among adolescents and young adults in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions is available. We aimed to report population shifts in people aged 10-24 years and their NCD burden from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We retrieved data from GBD 2019 for people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions from 1990 to 2019. We presented population shifts and analysed deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for NCDs. We also quantified the associations of deaths and DALYs with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and Universal Health Coverage (UHC) effective coverage index using Spearman correlation and linear regression analyses. Percentages are reported to 1 decimal place and rates are reported to 2 decimal places.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 559·2 million young people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia region and 335·0 million in the Western Pacific region; India and China remained the countries with greatest number of this age group. In 1990-2019, India had an absolute increase of 139·4 million adolescents, while China had a decrease of 134·3 million. In 2019, NCDs accounted for 27·3% (95% uncertainty interval 25·1 to 29·2) and 34·6% (33·5 to 36·1) of total deaths, and 49·8% (45·3 to 54·4) and 65·1% (60·6 to 69·3) of total DALYs in the South-East Asia and the Western Pacific regions, respectively. Neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and mental disorders were the leading causes of NCD burden in 42 countries. Kiribati had the highest rates of deaths (62·82 [50·77 to 76·11] per 100 000 population), YLLs (4364·73 [3545·04 to 5275·63] per 100 000 population), and DALYs (9368·73 [7713·65 to 11340·99] per 100 000 population) for NCDs, whereas Australia (6976·51 [5044·46 to 9190·01] per 100 000 population) and New Zealand (6716·81 [4827·25 to 8827·69] per 100 000 population) had the largest rates of YLDs due to NCDs. From 1990 to 2019 across both regions, the rate of death due to NCDs declined by over a third (-32·8% [-41·1 to -22·9] in the South-East Asia region and -40·0% [-48·6 to -30·4] in the Western Pacific region), and DALYs decreased by about 12% (-12·0% [-16·8 to -7·7] in the South-East Asia region and -12·8% [-17·7 to -8·7] in the Western Pacific region), whereas the proportion of NCD burden relative to all-cause burden increased (45·7% [32·9 to 61·7] for deaths and 41·2% [35·2 to 48·8] for DALYs in the South-East Asia region; 11·8% [7·1 to 21·5] for deaths and 18·2% [14·6 to 22·0] for DALYs in the Western Pacific region). The rate of deaths and DALYs due to NCDs decreased monotonically alongside increases in SDI (rs=-0·57 [95% CI -0·81 to -0·32] for deaths and rs=-0·30 [-0·61 to 0·03] for DALYs). The rate of deaths (rs=-0·89 [95% CI -0·97 to -0·80]) and DALYs (rs=-0·67 [-0·93 to -0·41]) due to NCDs also decreased alongside increases in the UHC effective coverage index.

INTERPRETATION

Specific preventive and health service measures are needed for adolescents and young adults in countries with different levels of socioeconomic development to reduce the burden from NCDs.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Yarning about river safety: A qualitative study exploring water safety beliefs and practices for First Nations People

ISSUE ADDRESSED

Water is vital to Australian First Nations Peoples' connection to country and culture. Despite this cultural significance, and epidemiological studies identifying elevated drowning risk among Australian First Nations Peoples, extremely limited qualitative research explores water safety beliefs and practices of First Nations Peoples. This study addressed this knowledge gap via qualitative research with Wiradjuri people living in Wagga Wagga, New South Wales.

METHODS

Under Aboriginal Reference Group guidance, a local researcher recruited participants using purposive sampling for yarning circles across four groups: young people aged 18-30 years, parents of children under 5, parents of older children and adolescents and Elders. Yarning circles were audio recorded, transcribed and thematically coded using an inductive approach.

RESULTS

In total, 10 First Nations individuals participated. Yarning led to rich insights and yielded five themes: families as first educators; importance of storytelling, lived experience and respect for knowledge holders; the river as a place of connection; historical influence on preference for river over pool and river is unpredictable and needs to be respected.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the importance of First Nations culture to water safety practices, particularly around the river. To reduce drowning risk among First Nations populations, knowledge holders need to be embedded in the design and delivery of community water safety education. SO WHAT?: Co-designing water safety initiatives with First Nations Peoples will have dual benefits; developing culturally appropriate and locally relevant water safety education, while also continuing First Nations culture across generations.

Exploring Flood Response Challenges, Training Needs, and the Impact of Online Flood Training for Lifeguards and Water Safety Professionals in South Africa

Flooding is a significant cause of human and economic loss in the African region, including in South Africa. Flood mitigation and response in South Africa is challenging due to a range of environmental, infrastructure, and policy constraints. Lifeguards represent a potential additional workforce to bolster flood mitigation and response. This study aimed to explore the feasibility and acceptability of online flood safety training for water safety professionals in South Africa, as well as assess the current flood response capacity and future needs of this group. Online surveys were completed by a convenience sample of South African water safety professionals (including lifeguards) pre-and post a series of four online flood training workshops. Free text responses were thematically coded and flood knowledge was compared between the pre-and post-workshop survey respondents. Sixty-eight responses were analysed (64.7% pre-workshop phase; 63.2% male, 29.4% aged 50-59 years). A range of challenges in flood mitigation and response were identified including equipment, training, and a lack of government support. However, positives were also identified including respondents' willingness to assist in flood emergencies and good cooperation with neighbouring countries and across the region. Opportunities for better cross-municipal and government communication were discussed. In times of crisis, or in resource poor settings, water safety professionals can bolster traditional flood mitigation and response capacity. Opportunities exist to harness this willingness, but also improve cross-governmental and municipal knowledge sharing to improve future flood mitigation and response efforts in South Africa.

Lessons learned through the 20-year development of a national fatal drowning database in Australia

BACKGROUND

Co-ordinated, evidence-based policy and programmatic efforts are needed to respond to complex drowning prevention problems. Comprehensive, current, and robust data are vital for agenda setting, burden and risk factor identification, intervention design and evaluation, as well as setting policy. We aim to record methods used in, and identify impacts of, the development of a national fatal drowning database (NFDD) in Australia, including lessons learned across research, policy, and practice.

METHODS

We employ a case study method using process mapping and document review to explore the evolution, drivers and impacts of the NFDD. We analyse methodological approaches including those relating to data definitions, drowning case collection, and management, as well as tracking the various outputs of the NFDD. We describe a development timeline that presents impact of drowning prevention policy, and research agendas on database development, and research investments more specifically.

RESULTS

Our study identified that the collected variables grew 20-fold from 2002 to 2022, reaching 259 variables, and 5,692 unique cases of fatal drowning. The NFDD employs data triangulation methodology, combining keyword and targeted searches of coronial files, media report monitoring, and organisational data provision. Database development is influenced by the Australia Water Safety Strategy, policymaker and practitioner-initiated research agendas, and identification of knowledge gaps. We identified numerous outputs spanning publications, media, intervention development, and legislative submissions.

CONCLUSION

A comprehensive and robust NFDD informed by policymaker and practitioner input can enhance surveillance, policy, and intervention development for drowning prevention. Employing mixed data collection and validation methods can supplement weaknesses in official data sources. There is a need for the NFDD to continue to evolve in its application while maintaining rigorous case identification and data quality assurance processes. Despite significant investment, the outputs and influence on drowning prevention practice in Australia has been extremely valuable and contributed to sizeable reductions in Australia's fatal drowning rate.

Preventing selfie-related incidents: Taking a public health approach to reduce unnecessary burden on emergency medicine services

Unintentional deaths from selfies have received limited exposure in emergency medicine literature; yet trauma remains the leading cause of death and disability in children and young adults, and most of those implicated in a selfie incident are in this demographic. Selfie-related injuries and deaths may be a relatively new phenomenon, but data suggest they are a public health hazard that is not going away. Emergency medicine practitioners may have a role to play in the primary and secondary prevention of selfie incidents, including delivering opportunistic behaviour change messaging to those who are at risk of being injured or killed in a selfie-related incident, particularly young (14-25 years) males. Emergency medicine specialists should be aware of the dangers of selfie-related incidents and understand their polytraumatic presentation.

A systematic review of the evidence for effectiveness of interventions to address transport and other unintentional injuries among adolescents

INTRODUCTION

Globally, injuries are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity for adolescents, which disproportionately affect the disadvantaged. To build an investment case for adolescent injury prevention, evidence is needed as to effective interventions.

METHODS

A systematic review of peer-reviewed original research published between 2010-2022 was conducted. CINAHL, Cochrane Central, Embase, Medline and PsycINFO databases were searched for studies reporting the effectiveness of unintentional injury prevention interventions for adolescents (10-24 years), with assessment of study quality and equity (e.g., age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic status).

RESULTS

Sixty-two studies were included; 59 (95.2%) from high-income countries (HIC). Thirty-eight studies (61.3%) reported no aspect of equity. Thirty-six studies (58.1%) reported prevention of sports injuries (commonly neuromuscular training often focused on soccer-related injuries, rule changes and protective equipment). Twenty-one studies (33.9%) reported prevention of road traffic injury, with legislative approaches, commonly graduated driver licensing schemes, found to be effective in reducing fatal and nonfatal road traffic injury. Seven studies reported interventions for other unintentional injuries (e.g., falls).

DISCUSSION

Interventions were strongly biased towards HIC, which does not reflect the global distribution of adolescent injury burden. Low consideration of equity in included studies indicates current evidence largely excludes adolescent populations at increased risk of injury. A large proportion of studies evaluated interventions to prevent sports injury, a prevalent yet low severity injury mechanism. Findings highlight the importance of education and enforcement alongside legislative approaches for preventing adolescent transport injuries. Despite drowning being a leading cause of injury-related harm among adolescents, no interventions were identified.

CONCLUSION

This review provides evidence to support investment in effective adolescent injury prevention interventions. Further evidence of effectiveness is needed, especially for low- and middle-income countries, populations at increased risk of injury who would benefit from greater consideration of equity and for high lethality injury mechanisms like drowning.

The characteristics of drowning among different types of international visitors to Australia and how this contributes to their drowning risk

OBJECTIVE

Australia is a popular destination for international visitors. This study reviews international visitor drowning deaths in Australia and analyses drowning by visitor type.

METHODS

A total population retrospective study exploring drowning deaths of international visitors was conducted between 2008 and 2018. Data were extracted from the Royal Life Saving National Fatal Drowning Database and categorised into four subgroups: overseas tourists, international students, working holiday makers and work-related visitors. Descriptive statistics, non-parametric tests and relative risk (RR) were calculated.

RESULTS

In total, 201 international visitors drowned in Australia, 7% of all drowning deaths; a crude drowning rate of 0.27/100,000 visitors versus 0.95/100,000 for residents (RR=0.19 [95% CI: 0.16-0.22]). Most deaths were males (79%) and people aged 18-34 years (50%). Visitors frequently drowned at beaches (33%), and when swimming (41%). Thirty-five percent recorded a pre-existing medical condition. Overseas tourists on holiday were the most likely to drown compared to other subgroups.

CONCLUSION

International visitors represent a small but increasing proportion of people drowning in Australia. The circumstances of which visitors drown vary by travel purpose, age, country of origin, location of drowning and activity.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

International visitors have unique safety needs, requiring tailored prevention based on the purpose of travel and country of origin.

Evaluation of the First Lap learn to swim voucher programme: protocol

INTRODUCTION

Swimming skills are an evidence-based component of drowning prevention. However, in Australia, many children miss out on learn to swim education. Voucher programmes may reduce swimming lesson cost and increase participation, especially among priority populations. The First Lap voucher programme provides two New South Wales state government-funded $100 vouchers for parents/carers of preschool children to contribute to swimming lesson costs. This evaluation aims to determine the effectiveness of the programme in meeting objectives of increasing preschool-aged children participating in learn to swim programmes and building parent/carer knowledge and awareness of the importance of preschool-aged children learning to swim.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A programme logic model was developed to explain the inputs, activities and intended outputs, and outcomes, which guided this mixed-methods evaluation design of quantitative and qualitative analysis within an impact/outcome evaluation. Baseline sociodemographic registration data will be provided by the parent/carer of each child participant and linked to swim school provider data on voucher redemption. Data will be collected on voucher use, knowledge, and attitudes to swimming lessons at registration and across two surveys. An economic evaluation will assess programme cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSION

This evaluation will determine impacts on participation rates in learn to swim programmes, particularly within priority populations. It will examine whether the programme has influenced attitudes and motivations of parents and carers toward learn to swim programmes and water safety, whether the programme has impacted or enhanced the ability of the aquatics sector to deliver learn to swim programmes and assess its cost-effectiveness.

Mortality trends and the impact of exposure on Australian coastal drowning deaths, 2004-2021

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to characterise Australian coastal drowning trends and evaluate impact of exposure on drowning risk.

METHODS

Descriptive epidemiological analysis of unintentional fatal drowning occurring July 2004-June 2021 at Australian coastal sites (beaches, rock platforms, bays, harbours, offshore locations etc.). Total population, exposed-person and exposed-person-time rates per 100,000 population were calculated by age, sex, socio-economic status, remoteness category and pre-submersion activity. Annual trends were assessed using joinpoint regression. Exposure-based rates used estimates from Surf Life Saving Australia's National Coastal Safety Survey.

RESULTS

The cumulative unintentional coastal fatal drowning rate was 0.43 per 100,000 Australian residents (95%CI: 0.41-0.45) and did not change throughout the study period (p=0.289). The exposed-person rate was 0.67 per 100,000 coastal visitors (95%CI: 0.62-0.72), and there were 0.55 coastal drowning deaths per 10 million coastal visitor hours (95%CI: 0.51-0.59). Men, older people and residents of lower socio-economic and remote areas had higher drowning rates; rock fishing and scuba diving had the highest activity exposure-based rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Education- and policy-based coastal safety interventions should focus on identified risk factors to reduce annual coastal drowning rates.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

Exposure-based risk measurements are important for developing and prioritising interventions; assessments based on counts or total population measures alone may misinform prevention efforts.

Determining the Impact of Heatwaves on Emergency Ambulance Calls in Queensland: A Retrospective Population-Based Study

Heatwaves are a significant and growing threat to the health and well-being of the residents of Queensland, Australia. This threat is increasing due to climate change. Excess heat increases the demand for health services, including ambulance calls, and the purpose of this study was to explore this impact across Queensland. A state-wide retrospective analysis of heatwaves and emergency 'Triple Zero' (000) calls to Queensland Ambulance (QAS) from 2010-2019 was undertaken. Call data from the QAS and heatwave data from the Bureau of Meteorology were analysed using a case-crossover approach at the postcode level. Ambulance calls increased by 12.68% during heatwaves. The effect was greatest during low-severity heatwaves (22.16%), followed by severe (14.32%) and extreme heatwaves (1.16%). The impact varied by rurality, with those living in very remote areas and major cities most impacted, along with those of low and middle socioeconomic status during low and severe intensity heat events. Lag effects post-heatwave continued for at least 10 days. Heatwaves significantly increase ambulance call centre workload, so ambulance services must actively prepare resources and personnel to address increases in heatwave frequency, duration, and severity. Communities must be informed of the risks of heatwaves at all severities, particularly low severity, and the sustained risks in the days following a heat event.

Heatwaves and mortality in Queensland 2010-2019: implications for a homogenous state-wide approach

Heatwaves are a significant cause of adverse health outcomes and mortality in Australia, worsening with climate change. In Queensland, the northeastern-most state, little is known about the impact of heatwaves outside of the capital city of Brisbane. This study aims to explore the impact of heatwaves on mortality across various demographic and environmental conditions within Queensland from 2010 to 2019. The Excess Heat Factor was used to indicate heatwave periods at the Statistical Area 2 (SA2) level. Registered deaths data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and heatwave data from the Bureau of Meteorology were matched using a case-crossover approach. Relative risk and 95% confidence intervals were calculated across years, regions, age, sex, rurality, socioeconomic status, and cause of death. Heatwaves were associated with a 5% increase in all-cause mortality compared to deaths on non-heatwave days, with variability across the state. The risk of death on a heatwave day versus a non-heatwave day varied by heatwave severity. Individuals living in urban centers, the elderly, and those living in regions of lower socioeconomic status were most impacted by heatwave mortality. The relative risk of dying from neoplasms, nervous system conditions, respiratory conditions, and mental and behavioral conditions increased during heatwaves. As heatwaves increase in Queensland due to climate change, understanding the impact of heatwaves on mortality across Queensland is important to tailor public health messages. There is considerable variability across communities, demographic groups, and medical conditions, and as such messages need to be tailored to risk.

Addressing gaps in our understanding of the drowning patient: a protocol for the retrospective development of an Utstein style database and multicentre collaboration

INTRODUCTION

This retrospective observational study aims to create a comprehensive database of the circumstances of drowning (including care provided and outcomes of care) to report against the Utstein style for drowning (USFD) for patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Four areas will be examined: a feasibility study of the USFD; a comparison of classification and prognostication systems; examination of indications and efficacy of different ventilation strategies; and differences in the circumstances, severity, treatment and outcomes of drowning by sex and gender.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This protocol outlines retrospective data collection for all patients presenting to EDs of the Sunshine Coast Hospital and Health Service in Queensland, Australia with the presenting problem or discharge diagnosis of drowning or immersion between 2015 and 2022. Patients computerised health records (emergency medical service record, pathology, radiology results, medical and nursing notes for ED, inpatient units and intensive care units) will be used to extract data for entry into an USFD database. Descriptive (eg, median, IQR) and inferential statistical analyses (eg, analysis of variance) will be used to answer the separate research questions. Development of an International Drowning Registry using the USFD dataset and the Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) web application is discussed.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by Metro North Human Research and Ethics Committee (Project No: 49754) and James Cook University Human Research Ethics Committee (H8014). It has been endorsed by national drowning prevention organisations Royal Life Saving Society Australia (RLSSA) and Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA). Study findings will provide data to better inform clinical management of drowning patients and provide an evidence base on sex and gender differences in drowning. Results will be disseminated through peer review publications, conference presentations and media releases. Results will also be disseminated through RLSSA and SLSA membership of the Australian and New Zealand Resuscitation Council and the Australian Water Safety Council.

Exploring why young Australians participate in the sport of fencing: Future avenues for sports-based health promotion

ISSUE ADDRESSED

Australian sport policy calls for a diverse sector to get more individuals more active. This study contributes to an evidence base of alternative sport options that may increase physical activity levels in adolescents, as we sought to understand why Australians decide to participate in fencing when aged <18 years.

METHODS

A retrospective, mixed-methods survey design was employed to measure why a participant started fencing and what participants like about fencing compared to other sports. Free-text qualitative data were analysed thematically. Quantitative data were collected to answer secondary objectives, using nonparametric tests to determine significance between the median scores prefencing and postfencing for enjoyment and frequency of participation.

RESULTS

One hundred and one fencers across Australia who started fencing aged <18 years completed the survey. Respondents primarily started fencing for fun/enjoyment, followed by the desire to try something different/alternative/nonmainstream. Four themes were identified relating to why a participant decided to start fencing: (i) external motivators, (ii) influence of interest and imagination, (iii) developing the self and (iv) the supportive culture.

CONCLUSIONS

Fencing may encourage adolescent participation in physical activity due to unique characteristics which attracts individuals for reasons beyond the need to be active alone, and instead affords a space for self-exploration, learning, and belonging. Further research is required to identify how fencing can engage different cohorts of adolescents, and any barriers to participation. SO WHAT?: Fencing could be utilised to promote engagement in physical activity among Australian adolescents by emphasising the creative, mental, and inclusive aspects of the sport.

Lessons learned from co-designing a high school beach safety education program with lifeguards and students

ISSUE ADDRESSED

School-based beach safety education programs are common, but best practice guidance and information on their design and development is limited.

METHODS

Researchers, professional ocean lifeguards and students participated in a co-design process to inform a lifeguard-delivered, school-based beach safety education program for a coastal community in New South Wales, Australia. Lifeguards and researchers (experts) provided structured feedback about the program in a survey and facilitated workshop; students (n = 26) aged 11 to 13 years participated in focus group sessions intended to garner in-depth understanding of their experiences at the beach and knowledge of, and attitudes towards, beach safety.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The co-design process provided a novel and inclusive model for beach safety education program development, and valuable lessons for future efforts. Specifically, student focus groups identified several facets of pre-teens and younger teenagers' beach experience that prompted revision of the education program, primarily framing of program content and safety messages. Peers are a primary motivator for this age group and students' burgeoning independence emerged as an important theme. While knowledgeable about beach hazards and risks, students conveyed mixed safety attitudes and self-reported safety practices, highlighting the importance of designing programs to motivate behaviour and promote safe decision-making vs raising awareness alone. Findings illustrate the value of adopting co-design processes for all beach safety programs, school or otherwise. SO WHAT?: Beach safety programs may not be delivering information that is needed, wanted or useful. Structured consultation with the priority population must become standard practice in beach safety and drowning prevention education program development.

Cervical spine immobilisation is only required in drowning patients at high risk of axial loading of the spine

OBJECTIVES

Wave forced impacts are known to result in cervical spine injuries (CSI) and approximately 20% of drownings in Australia occur at the beach. The most common mechanism of injury in studies examining the frequency of CSI in drowning patients is shallow water diving. The aim of the present study was to determine what proportion of CSIs occurring in bodies of water experienced a concomitant drowning injury in a location where wave forced impacts are likely to be an additional risk factor.

METHODS

Electronic medical records at the Sunshine Coast Hospital and Health Service EDs, Queensland Ambulance Service case records and Surf Life Saving Queensland data between 1 January 2015 and 21 April 2021 were manually linked. Outcomes recorded included victim demographics, scene information, hospital course and patient disposition.

RESULTS

Ninety-one of 574 (15.9%) CSIs occurred in a body of water with risk of drowning. However, only 4 (4.3%) had a simultaneous drowning injury, representing 0.8% (4/483) of drowning presentations. Ten (10.9%) patients reported loss of consciousness, including the four with drowning. The principal mechanism of CSI was a wave forced impact (71/91, 78%). Most injuries occurred at the beach (79/91, 86.8%). Delayed presentation was common (28/91, 31%). A history of axial loading was 100% sensitive when indicating imaging.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of CSI and drowning is uncommon. Cervical spine precautions are only required in drowning patients with signs or a history, or at high risk of, axial loading of the spine. This paper supports the move away from routine cervical spine precautions even in a high-risk population.

The epidemiology, risk factors and impact of exposure on unintentional surfer and bodyboarder deaths

Surfing and bodyboarding (SAB) are popular activities, but not without risk. Limited SAB mortality and exposure risk explorations exist, so this cross-sectional study explores epidemiology and risk factors for SAB deaths (1 July, 2004-30 June,2020) in Australia: including decedent and incident profiles, causes of death, differences between fatalities during SAB and other coastal activities; and the impact of exposure on SAB mortality risk. Fatality data were sourced from the National Coronial Information System, incident and media reports. Tide-state data, population data and participation data were sourced from relevant authorities. Analyses included chi-square testing and simple logistic regression with odds ratios. There were 155 SAB deaths (80.6% surfing; 96.1% male; 36.8% aged 55+years; 0.04/100,000 residents; 0.63/100,000 surfers). Drowning was the most common cause of death (58.1%; n = 90), but higher in bodyboarding, with bodyboarders 4.62 times more likely to drown than surfers (95%CI: 1.66-12.82; p = 0.003). Almost half (44.5%; n = 69; χ22 = 9.802; p = 0.007) were with friends/family, and the largest proportion occurred during a rising tide (41.3%; n = 64; χ23 = 180.627; p<0.001) followed by a low tide (36.8%;n = 57). Australians surf 45.7 times each year, for 1.88 hours each visit equalling 86.1 'exposed' hours. With exposure-time considered, exposure-adjusted surfer mortality rate (0.06/1 million hours) is lower than other in-water activities (0.11/1 million hours). Younger surfers (14-34 years) surfed more yet had the lowest mortality rate (114.5 hours/year; 0.02/1 million hours). Older surfers (55+ years) had a lower SAB mortality rate (0.052) than the all-cause crude mortality rate of their average population counterparts (1.36). Cardiac conditions were identified in 32.9% (n = 69) of SAB deaths. SAB are relatively safe, with lower exposure mortality rates than other activities. Prevention should target older surfers, inland residents, and identification of surfers with risk factors for cardiac events.

Cervical spine injuries occurring at the beach: epidemiology, mechanism of injury and risk factors

Objective

Surf zone injuries include cervical spine injuries (CSI). Risk factors for CSI have not been extensively investigated. The objective was to examine risk factors associated with diagnosed CSI that occurred in a beach setting.

Methods

This retrospective case series used manually linked data from Sunshine Coast Hospital and Health Service Emergency Departments, Queensland Ambulance Service, Surf Life Saving Queensland (SLSQ), and Bureau of Meteorology data from 01/01/2015-21/04/2021. Variables included victim demographics, mechanism of injury, scene information, and patient course.

Results

Seventy-nine of the 574 (13.8%) confirmed CSI occurred at the beach. Local residents and visitors were injured equally. Females represented a minority (12.7%) of those diagnosed with CSI but were a higher proportion of suspected spinal incidents reported to SLSQ (45%). Surfers were more likely to be injured through shallow water diving than swimmers (27.6% vs 2.2%). Females were more likely to be injured by shallow water diving than males (30.0% vs 8.7%). Visitors were more likely to be injured swimming and local residents surfing (68.2% vs 77.8% respectively). CSI occurred most commonly (40.0%) with a below average ocean wave height (0.75-1.25 m) and were most likely (45.3%) to occur in the second half of the outgoing tide. One beach had a statistically significant greater incidence of spinal incidents (OR 3.9, 95% CI: 2.1-7.2) and of CSI (OR 10.7, 95% CI: 1.5-79.5).

Conclusions

Risk factors for CSI at the beach include male sex, smaller wave height and an outgoing tide. Shallow water diving among surfers and females should be addressed urgently.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13810-9.

Assessing variations in estimates of drowning mortality in Turkey from 2013 to 2019

Introduction

Drowning is an under-recognised public health threat and a leading cause of injury-related mortality and morbidity. However, in many countries, including Turkey, limited data impair understanding of drowning burden and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study drowning estimates (defined using International Classification of Diseases [ICD] codes W65–74) do not include flood-related deaths (X38) and water transportation related drownings (V90, V92). A lack of accessible and reliable country-level data impacts a country’s ability to develop appropriate drowning prevention interventions and measure efficacy. This retrospective population-based study aimed to explore differences between two datasets in fatal drowning in Turkey between 2013 and 2019.

Methods

National, all-age data on fatal drownings (restrictive definition: ICD-10 codes W65–74) were sourced from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In addition, a broader definition of drowning including water transport, flood-related deaths and drowning due to undetermined intent (ICD-10 codes W65–74, V90, V92, X38, Y21, T751) were sourced from TurkStat. Numeric and percentage differences in number of drowning deaths were calculated overall and by sex, age group and death year. Chi square (p < 0.05) and relative risk (95% confidence intervals) using crude drowning rates per 100,000 population were also calculated for TurkStat data.

Results

From 2013 to 2019, TurkStat reported a total of 5004 drowning deaths (coded W65–74) were reported, compared to 5252 (5% difference; n = 248) using the broader definition. A restrictive definition underreported drowning most significantly in females (9.5%; n = 97), 5–9 year-olds (8.9%; n = 31) and in the 2015 calendar year (30.2%; n = 226). Males accounted for 78.8% of drowning in Turkey, with females significantly (p < 0.001) more at risk under 10 years of age (0–4 years X² = 67.9; 5–9 years X² = 23.9) and aged 65+ years (X² = 29.7). GBD data overestimated a restrictive definition of drowning by 3.2% overall (7.6% for females, 52.5% for 0–4 year-olds) and underreported drowning for 65+ year-olds by 17% when compared to TurkStat restrictive definition of drowning.

Conclusions

Although a restrictive definition of drowning doesn’t greatly impact estimates at a population level in Turkey, there are variations. This highlights the importance of accurate country-level drowning data to guide decision making for prevention.

A qualitative examination of causal factors and parent/caregiver experiences of non-fatal drowning-related hospitalisations of children aged 0-16 years

Fatal and non-fatal drowning is a significant public health issue, which disproportionately impacts children and young people. In Australia, the highest fatal and non-fatal drowning rates occur in children under five years of age. To date, little qualitative research has been conducted on non-fatal drowning, with causal factor analysis generally conducted using coronial and hospital data. This study's aim was to identify causal factors in hospital treated cases of non-fatal drowning in children as qualitatively self-reported by parents and caregivers. Cases of unintentional child (0-16 years) non-fatal drowning admissions and Emergency Department presentations to three tertiary care paediatric hospitals in New South Wales, Australia were identified via International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding. Parents and caregivers of drowning patients were invited to participate in a semi-structured interview. Data were thematically coded using an inductive approach, with a focus on causal factors and recommendations for preventive approaches. Of 169 incidents, 86 parents/caregivers were interviewed. Children hospitalised for drowning were more often male (59.3%), aged 0-4 years (79.1%) and 30.2% were from household who spoke a language other than English. Qualitative incident descriptions were coded to five themes: lapse of supervision, unintended access (commonly in home swimming pools), brief immersion (usually young children bathing), falls into water and ongoing impacts. Drowning prevention recommendations were grouped under supervision, pool barriers and maintenance, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training and emergency response, drowning is quick and silent, and learning swimming. Parents and caregivers of young children require ongoing education regarding supervision distractions and pool barrier compliance. Additional challenges are faced by those in rental properties with pools, parents/caregivers who cannot swim, and parents/caregivers from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds. Affordable, accessible, and culturally appropriate swimming lessons, water safety education and CPR training should be made more available for adult caregivers, particularly in languages other than English.

Preliminary evaluation of the impact of mandatory life jacket laws at declared high-risk rock platforms on unintentional rock fishing drowning deaths

Objectives

To explore the impact of mandatory lifejacket wear legislation on unintentional rock fishing-related drowning fatalities at declared high-risk rock platforms in New South Wales (NSW; Australia).

Methods

Rock fishing-related drownings for the five years pre-legislation enactment (23 November 2011 to 22 November 2016) and five years post-legislation enactment (23 November 2016 to 22 November 2021) were compared. Google Earth was used to assess if drowning deaths occurred at declared areas under legislation. Binary logistic regression was used to analyse change in the number of deaths in declared areas pre-legislation/post-legislation.

Results

Over the 10 years, 80 rock fishing drowning deaths occurred in New South Wales; 23 in declared areas pre-legislation and 13 post-legislation (−43.5%). The odds of a rock fishing drowning death occurring in a declared area pre-legislation was 2.3 times higher (95% CI 0.942 to 5.752; p=0.067).

Conclusion

Reductions in rock fishing deaths at declared areas were observed since the legislation’s introduction, but were not significant. Greater enforcement and extension to other high-risk platforms may reduce deaths further.

Nonfatal drowning-related hospitalizations and associated healthcare expenditure in India: An analysis of nationally representative survey data

BACKGROUND

Drowning is a global public health challenge, with significant burden in low- and middle-income countries. There are few studies exploring nonfatal drowning, including the economic and social impacts. This study aimed to quantify unintentional drowning-related hospitalization in India and associated healthcare expenditure.

METHOD

Unit level data on unintentional drowning-related hospitalization were obtained from the 75th rounds of the National Sample Survey of Indian households conducted in 2018. The outcome variables were indices of health care cost such as out of pocket expenditure (OOPE), health care burden (HCB), catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), impoverishment, and hardship financing. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis were conducted after adjusting for inflation using the pharmaceutical price index for December 2020. The association of socio-demographic characteristics with the outcome variable was reported as relative risk with 95% CI and expenditure reported in Indian Rupees (INR) and United States dollars (USD).

RESULTS

174 respondents reported drowning-related hospitalization (a crude rate of 15.91-31.34 hospitalizations per 100,000 population). Proportionately, more males (63.4%), persons aged 21-50 years (44.9%) and rural dwelling respondents (69.9%) were hospitalized. Drowning-related hospitalization costs on average INR25,421 ($345.11USD) per person per drowning incident. Costs were higher among older respondents, females, urban respondents, and longer lengths of hospital stays. About 14.4% of respondents reported hardship financing as a result of treatment costs and 9.0% of households reported pushed below the poverty line when reporting drowning-related hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Drowning can be an economically catastrophic injury, especially for those already impacted by poverty. Drowning is a significant public health problem in India. Investment in drowning prevention program will reduce hospitalization and economic burden.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

This study provides support for investment in drowning prevention in India, including a need to ensure drowning prevention interventions address the determinants of health across the lifespan.

Systematic review of the impact of heatwaves on health service demand in Australia

OBJECTIVES

Heatwaves have been linked to increased levels of health service demand in Australia. This systematic literature review aimed to explore health service demand during Australian heatwaves for hospital admissions, emergency department presentations, ambulance call-outs, and risk of mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

A systematic review to explore peer-reviewed heatwave literature published from 2000 to 2020.

DATA SOURCES

Articles were reviewed from six databases (MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, PsychINFO, ProQuest, Science Direct). Search terms included: heatwave, extreme heat, ambulance, emergency department, and hospital. Studies were included if they explored heat for a period of two or more consecutive days. Studies were excluded if they did not define a threshold for extreme heat or if they explored data only from workers compensation claims and major events.

DATA SYNTHESIS

This review was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (# CRD42021227395 ). Forty-five papers were included in the final review following full-text screening. Following a quality assessment using the GRADE approach, data were extracted to a spreadsheet and compared. Significant increases in mortality, as well as hospital, emergency, and ambulance demand, were found across Australia during heatwave periods. Admissions for cardiovascular, renal, respiratory, mental and behavioural conditions exhibited increases during heatwaves. The most vulnerable groups during heatwaves were children (< 18 years) and the elderly (60+).

CONCLUSIONS

Heatwaves in Australia will continue to increase in duration and frequency due to the effects of climate change. Health planning is essential at the community, state, and federal levels to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves on health and health service delivery especially for vulnerable populations. However, understanding the true impact of heatwaves on health service demand is complicated by differing definitions and methodology in the literature. The Excess Heat Factor (EHF) is the preferred approach to defining heatwaves given its consideration of local climate variability and acclimatisation. Future research should explore evidence-based and spatially relevant heatwave prevention programs. An enhanced understanding of heatwave health impacts including service demand will inform the development of such programs which are necessary to promote population and health system resilience.

Pre-Existing Medical Conditions: A Systematic Literature Review of a Silent Contributor to Adult Drowning

Medical conditions can increase drowning risk. No prior study has systematically reviewed the published evidence globally regarding medical conditions and drowning risk for adults. MEDLINE (Ovid), PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, PsycINFO (ProQuest) and SPORTDiscus databases were searched for original research published between 1 January 2005 and 31 October 2021 that reported adult (≥15 years) fatal or non-fatal drowning of all intents and pre-existing medical conditions. Conditions were grouped into the relevant International Classifications of Diseases (ICD) codes. Eighty-three studies were included (85.5% high-income countries; 38.6% East Asia and Pacific region; 75.9% evidence level III-3). Diseases of the nervous system (n = 32 studies; 38.6%), mental and behavioural conditions (n = 31; 37.3%) and diseases of the circulatory system (n = 25; 30.1%) were the most common categories of conditions. Epilepsy was found to increase the relative risk of drowning by 3.8 to 82 times, with suggested preventive approaches regarding supervised bathing or showering. Drowning is a common suicide method for those with schizophrenia, psychotic disorders and dementia. Review findings indicate people with pre-existing medical conditions drown, yet relatively few studies have documented the risk. There is a need for further population-level research to more accurately quantify drowning risk for pre-existing medical conditions in adults, as well as implementing and evaluating population-level attributable risk and prevention strategies.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Infant Drowning Prevention: Insights from a New Ecological Psychology Approach

Drowning causes significant mortality and morbidity globally, and infants (0-4 years of age) are disproportionately impacted. In a groundbreaking approach to pediatric drowning prevention, ecological psychology has been used to investigate the relationship between infants' perceptual-motor development and their behavior around bodies of water. In this review, we summarize recent research findings in the field of ecological psychology and apply these to the prevention of infant drowning. Studies have linked infants' avoidance of falls into the water with locomotor experience and type of accessway into bodies of water. Through crawling experience, infants learn to perceive the risk of falling into water and start adapting their behavior to avoid drop-offs leading into water. Infants tend to enter deep water more when the access is via a slope than via a drop-off. We propose that ecological psychology can enhance infant drowning prevention interventions. The aim is to create an additional layer of protection, the perceptual information layer, in addition to existing strategies, such as supervision and barriers. This new protective layer can be a powerful tool to further highlight the risk of entering the water and reduce infant drowning-related mortality and morbidity.

Phase One of a Global Evaluation of Suction-Based Airway Clearance Devices in Foreign Body Airway Obstructions: A Retrospective Descriptive Analysis

Background: Choking is a prevalent source of injury and mortality worldwide. Traditional choking interventions, including abdominal thrusts and back blows, have remained the standard of care for decades despite limited published data. Suction-based airway clearance devices (ACDs) are becoming increasingly popular and there is an urgent need to evaluate their role in choking intervention. The aim of this study was to describe the effectiveness (i.e., resolution of choking symptoms) and safety (i.e., adverse events) of identified airway clearance devices interventions to date. Methods: This retrospective descriptive analysis included any individual who self-identified to manufacturers as having used an ACD as a choking intervention prior to 1 July 2021. Records were included if they contained three clinical variables (patient’s age, type of foreign body, and resolution of choking symptoms). Researchers performed data extraction using a standardized form which included patient, situational, and outcome variables. Results: The analysis included 124 non-invasive (LifeVac©) and 61 minimally invasive (Dechoker©) ACD interventions. Median patient age was 40 (LifeVac©, 2−80) and 73 (Dechoker©, 5−84) with extremes of age being most common [<5 years: LifeVac© 37.1%, Dechoker© 23.0%; 80+ years: 27.4%, 37.7%]. Food was the most frequent foreign body (LifeVac© 84.7%, Dechoker© 91.8%). Abdominal thrusts (LifeVac© 37.9%, Dechoker© 31.1%) and back blows (LifeVac© 39.5%, Dechoker© 41.0%) were often co-interventions. Resolution of choking symptoms occurred following use of the ACD in 123 (LifeVac©) and 60 (Dechoker©) cases. Three adverse events (1.6%) were reported: disconnection of bellows/mask during intervention (LifeVac©), a lip laceration (Dechoker©), and an avulsed tooth (Dechoker©). Conclusion: Initial available data has shown ACDs to be promising in the treatment of choking. However, limitations in data collection methods and quality exist. The second phase of this evaluation will be an industry independent, prospective assessment in order to improve data quality, and inform future choking intervention algorithms.

Drowning risk and climate change: a state-of-the-art review

Drowning and climate change are both significant global health threats, yet little research links climate change to drowning risk. Research into the epidemiology, risk factors and preventive strategies for unintentional drowning in high-income and in low-income and middle-income countries has expanded understanding, but understanding of disaster and extreme weather-related drowning needs research focus. As nation states and researchers call for action on climate change, its impact on drowning has been largely ignored. This state-of-the-art review considers existing literature on climate change as a contributor to changes in drowning risks globally. Using selected climate change-related risks identified by the World Meteorological Organization and key risks to the Sustainable Development Goals as a framework, we consider the drowning risks associated with heat waves, hydrometeorological hazards, drought and water scarcity, damaged infrastructure, marine ecosystem collapse, displacement, and rising poverty and inequality. Although the degree of atmospheric warming remains uncertain, the impact of climate change on drowning risk is already taking place and can no longer be ignored. Greater evidence characterising the links between drowning and climate change across both high-income and low-income and middle-income contexts is required, and the implementation and evaluation of drowning interventions must reflect climate change risks at a local level, accounting for both geographical variation and the consequences of inequality. Furthermore, collaboration between the injury prevention, disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation sectors is crucial to both prevent climate change from stalling progress on preventing drowning and further advocate for climate change mitigation as a drowning risk reduction mechanism.

A Protocol for the Prospective Evaluation of Novel Suction-Based Airway Clearance Devices in the Treatment of Foreign Body Airway Obstructions

Background

Foreign body airway obstructions (FBAOs, choking) are a significant cause of preventable mortality. Abdominal thrusts, back blows, and chest compressions are traditional interventions. However, suction-based airway clearance devices (ACDs) have recently been marketed as an alternative. Of note, there is limited published evidence regarding their efficacy and safety. Our research has two aims: (1) to investigate what situational and patient factors are frequently identified, and which are associated with relief of the FBAO and survival in individuals with FBAOs treated with an ACD; and (2) to describe the experience of individuals who have used ACDs in response to a FBAO and identify facilitators and barriers to the use of ACDs compared to traditional interventions.

Methods and analysis

A prospective database will be developed using an online reporting system to capture ACD uses, independent of manufacturers, from July 1st, 2021 to December 31st, 2023. Descriptive statistics will be used to summarize cases, outcomes, and adverse events. Clinically important subgroups will be stratified for analysis, including the severity of obstruction, patient demographics, and training of ACD users. Semi-structured interviews will also be conducted with a subset of ACD users to describe in detail their experience using the device. Themes from these interviews will be assessed using the theoretical domains framework.

Discussion

This study will improve the evidence surrounding ACDs and compare it to current data for traditional techniques, with the aim of optimizing FBAO treatment. Data on ACDs are urgently needed as these devices are already being used by parents, caregivers, lay rescuers, and healthcare professionals to respond to choking emergencies. This evaluation will provide important information about their effectiveness and any safety concerns which can inform the public, resuscitation guidelines, and future research studies.

Trends in drowning mortality in Portugal from 1992 to 2019: comparing Global Burden of Disease and national data

INTRODUCTION

Imprecise data systems hinder understanding of drowning burden, even in high-income countries like Portugal, that have a well-implemented death certificate system. Consequently, national studies on drowning mortality are scarce. We aimed to explore drowning mortality in Portugal using national data and to compare these to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) for 1992-2019, using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 and ICD-10 codes, by sex, age group and cause (unintentional; water transport and intentional). GBD unintentional drowning data were obtained online. Age-standardised drowning rates were calculated and compared.

RESULTS

INE data showed 6057 drowning deaths, 4327 classified as unintentional (75.2% male; 36.7% 35-64 years; 31.5% 65+years; 15.2% 0-19 years). Following 2001, an increase in accidental drowning mortality and corresponding decrease in undetermined intent was observed, coincident with Portugal's ICD-10 implementation. GBD modelled estimates followed a downward trend at an overall rate of decrease of -0.41/decade (95% CI (-0.45 to -0.37); R² _adj=0.94; p<0.05). Conversely, INE data showed an increase in the rate of drowning deaths over the last decade (0.35/decade; 95% CI (-0.18 to 0.89)). GBD estimates were significantly different from the INE dataset (alpha=0.05), either underestimating as much as 0.567*INE in 1996 or overestimating as much as 1.473*INE in 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

While GBD mortality data estimates are valuable in the absence of routinely collected data, they smooth variations, concealing key advocacy opportunities. Investment in country-level drowning registries enables in-depth analysis of incident circumstances. Such data are essential to informing National Water Safety Plans.