Explaining the excess mortality in Scotland compared with England: pooling of 18 cohort studies

Epilepsy-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: A nationwide study of routine Scottish data

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether epilepsy-related deaths increased during the COVID-19 pandemic and if the proportion with COVID-19 listed as the underlying cause is different between people experiencing epilepsy-related deaths and those experiencing deaths unrelated to epilepsy.

METHODS

This was a Scotland-wide, population-based, cross-sectional study of routinely-collected mortality data pertaining to March-August of 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic peak) compared to the corresponding periods in 2015-2019. ICD-10-coded causes of death of deceased people of any age were obtained from a national mortality registry of death certificates in order to identify those experiencing epilepsy-related deaths (coded G40-41), deaths with COVID-19 listed as a cause (coded U07.1-07.2), and deaths unrelated to epilepsy (death without G40-41 coded). The number of epilepsy-related deaths in 2020 were compared to the mean observed through 2015-2019 on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (overall, men, women). Proportionate mortality and odds ratios (OR) for deaths with COVID-19 listed as the underlying cause were determined for the epilepsy-related deaths compared to deaths unrelated to epilepsy, reporting 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

A mean number of 164 epilepsy-related deaths occurred through March-August of 2015-2019 (of which a mean of 71 were in women and 93 in men). There were subsequently 189 epilepsy-related deaths during the pandemic March-August 2020 (89 women, 100 men). This was 25 more epilepsy-related deaths (18 women, 7 men) compared to the mean through 2015-2019. The increase in women was beyond the mean year-to-year variation seen in 2015-2019. Proportionate mortality with COVID-19 listed as the underlying cause was similar between people experiencing epilepsy-related deaths (21/189, 11.1%, CI 7.0-16.5%) and deaths unrelated to epilepsy (3,879/27,428, 14.1%, CI 13.7-14.6%), OR 0.76 (CI 0.48-1.20). Ten of 18 excess epilepsy-related deaths in women had COVID-19 listed as an additional cause.

CONCLUSIONS

There is little evidence to suggest there have been any major increases in epilepsy-related deaths in Scotland during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 is a common underlying cause of both epilepsy-related and unrelated deaths.

A syndemic of psychiatric morbidity, substance misuse, violence, and poor physical health among young Scottish men with reduced life expectancy

Background

Scotland has the shortest life expectancy in Western Europe, driven by high rates of cancer, suicides, alcohol-related causes and drug-related poisonings. These disparities cannot be explained solely by socioeconomic deprivation. Our aim was to investigate whether a syndemic in a socioeconomically deprived area of Glasgow might account for premature mortality among men.

Methods

We analysed data from two cross-sectional population surveys: a national sample of 1916 British men and another of 765 men in Glasgow East. The survey included men aged 18–34, and was undertaken in 2011 to study correlates of violence. Questionnaires covered current physical health, psychiatric symptoms, substance misuse, and crime and violence. Syndemic components were identified using confirmatory factor analysis. Associations and synergistic interactions between these variables and health status were estimated using logistic regression.

Results

An aggregation of multiple health conditions and health-related behaviours was found in Glasgow East. A syndemic model of joint effects, adducing a four-component latent variable (violence, substance dependence, psychiatric morbidity and a diathesis of biological/behavioural risk) showed synergy between components and explained persistent disparities in poor physical health/chronic health conditions. Effect modification was found between the general syndemic factor and contextual variables at individual and social environmental level according to location.

Conclusions

Syndemic effects from synergistic interactions were confirmed between psychiatric morbidity, substance misuse, violence, and biological/behavioural risk for physical health. A hypothetical model was developed to explain how the syndemic leads to potentially life-threatening risks to young men, both currently and as precursors of physical health conditions which may shorten their lives in the future.

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Scotland has the shortest life expectancy in Western Europe, especially among men in areas of Glasgow. This has not responded to Public Health interventions.

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A syndemic was identified among young men with synergism between violence, substance misuse, biological/behavioural physical health risks, and psychiatric morbidity.

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Synergistic interactions between components of the syndemic may result in precursors of multiple physical health conditions which will shorten men's lives in the future.

Epidemiology and outcomes of gastroparesis, as documented in general practice records, in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

To generate real-world evidence for the epidemiology of gastroparesis in the UK, we evaluated the prevalence, incidence, patient characteristics and outcomes of gastroparesis in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study. Prevalence and incidence of gastroparesis were evaluated in the CPRD database, with linkage to Hospital Episodes Statistics Admitted Patient Care and Office for National Statistics mortality data. Prevalence and incidence were age and sex standardised to mid-2017 UK population estimates. Descriptive analyses of demographics, aetiologies, pharmacological therapies and mortality were conducted.

RESULTS

Standardised prevalence of gastroparesis, as documented in general practice records, was 13.8 (95% CI 12.6 to 15.1) per 100 000 persons in 2016, and standardised incidence of gastroparesis rose from 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.8) per 100 000 person-years in 2004 to 1.9 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.3) per 100 000 person-years in 2016. The most common disease aetiologies were idiopathic (39.4%) and diabetic gastroparesis (37.5%), with a similar distribution of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among the 90% who had type of diabetes documented. Patients with diabetic gastroparesis had a significantly higher risk of mortality than those with idiopathic gastroparesis after diagnosis (adjusted HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.0). Of those with gastroparesis, 31.6% were not offered any recognised pharmacological therapy after diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

This is, to our knowledge, the first population-based study providing data on epidemiology and outcomes of gastroparesis in Europe. Further research is required to fully understand the factors influencing outcomes and survival of patients with gastroparesis.

Comparison of risk factor associations in UK Biobank against representative, general population based studies with conventional response rates: prospective cohort study and individual participant meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare established associations between risk factors and mortality in UK Biobank, a study with an exceptionally low rate of response to its baseline survey, against those from representative studies that have conventional response rates.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study alongside individual participant meta-analysis of other cohort studies.

SETTING

United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

Analytical sample of 499 701 people (response rate 5.5%) in analyses in UK Biobank; pooled data from the Health Surveys for England (HSE) and the Scottish Health Surveys (SHS), including 18 studies and 89 895 people (mean response rate 68%). Both study populations were linked to the same nationwide mortality registries, and the baseline age range was aligned at 40-69 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Death from cardiovascular disease, selected malignancies, and suicide. To quantify the difference between hazard ratios in the two studies, a ratio of the hazard ratios was used with HSE-SHS as the referent.

RESULTS

Risk factor levels and mortality rates were typically more favourable in UK Biobank participants relative to the HSE-SHS consortium. For the associations between risk factors and mortality endpoints, however, close agreement was seen between studies. Based on 14 288 deaths during an average of 7.0 years of follow-up in UK Biobank and 7861 deaths over 10 years of mortality surveillance in HSE-SHS, for cardiovascular disease mortality, for instance, the age and sex adjusted hazard ratio for ever having smoked cigarettes (versus never) was 2.04 (95% confidence interval 1.87 to 2.24) in UK Biobank and 1.99 (1.78 to 2.23) in HSE-SHS, yielding a ratio of hazard ratios close to unity (1.02, 0.88 to 1.19). The overall pattern of agreement between studies was essentially unchanged when results were compared separately by sex and when baseline years and censoring dates were aligned.

CONCLUSION

Despite a very low response rate, risk factor associations in the UK Biobank seem to be generalisable.

Respiratory Disease and Lower Pulmonary Function as Risk Factors for Dementia: A Systematic Review With Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In addition to affecting the oxygen supply to the brain, pulmonary function is a marker of multiple insults throughout life (including smoking, illness, and socioeconomic deprivation). In this meta-analysis of existing longitudinal studies, the hypothesis that lower pulmonary function and respiratory illness are linked to an elevated risk of dementia was tested.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted of longitudinal studies using PubMed until April 1, 2019, and, where possible, results were pooled in random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Ten studies relating pulmonary function to later dementia risk and 11 studies of respiratory illness and dementia (including one that assessed both factors) were identified. The lowest quartile of FEV₁ compared with the highest was associated with a 1.4-fold (hazard ratio [HR], 1.46; 95% CI, 0.77-2.75) increased dementia risk (N_total = 62,209; two studies). A decrease of 1 SD in FEV₁ was associated with a 28% increase in dementia risk (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.03-1.60; N_total = 67,505; six studies). Respiratory illness was also associated with increased dementia risk to a similar degree (pooled HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.30-1.81; N_total = 288,641; 11 studies).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with poor pulmonary function experience an increased risk of dementia. The extent to which the association between poor pulmonary function and dementia is causal remains unclear and requires examination.

What causes the burden of stroke in Scotland? A comparative risk assessment approach linking the Scottish Health Survey to administrative health data

Background

The availability of robust evidence to inform effective public health decision making is becoming increasingly important, particularly in a time of competing health demands and limited resources. Comparative Risk Assessments (CRA) are useful in this regard as they quantify the contribution of modifiable exposures to the disease burden in a population. The aim of this study is to assess the contribution of a range of modifiable exposures to the burden of disease due to stroke, an important public health problem in Scotland.

Methods

We used individual-level response data from eight waves (1995–2012) of the Scottish Health Survey linked to acute hospital discharge records from the Scottish Morbidity Record 01 (SMR01) and cause of death records from the death register. Stroke was defined using the International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9 codes 430–431, 433–4 and 436; and the ICD10 codes I60-61 and I63-64 and stroke incidence was defined as a composite of an individual’s first hospitalisation or death from stroke. A literature review identified exposures causally linked to stroke. Exposures were mapped to the layers of the Dahlgren & Whitehead model of the determinants of health and Population Attributable Fractions were calculated for each exposure deemed a significant causal risk of stroke from a Cox Proportional Hazards Regression model. Population Attributable Fractions were not summed as they may add to more than 100% due to the possibility of a person being exposed to more than one exposure simultaneously.

Results

Overall, the results suggest that socioeconomic factors explain the largest proportion of incident stroke hospitalisations and deaths, after adjustment for confounding. After DAG adjustment, low education explained 38.8% (95% Confidence Interval 26.0% to 49.4%, area deprivation (as measured by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation) 34.9% (95% CI 26.4 to 42.4%), occupational social class differences 30.3% (95% CI 19.4% to 39.8%), high systolic blood pressure 29.6% (95% CI 20.6% to 37.6%), smoking 25.6% (95% CI 17.9% to 32.6%) and area deprivation (as measured by the Carstairs area deprivation Index) 23.5% (95% CI 14.4% to 31.7%), of incident strokes in Scotland after adjustment.

Conclusion

This study provides evidence for prioritising interventions that tackle socioeconomic inequalities as a means of achieving the greatest reduction in avoidable strokes in Scotland. Future work to disentangle the proportion of the effect of deprivation transmitted through intermediate mediators on the pathway between socioeconomic inequalities and stroke may offer additional opportunities to reduce the incidence of stroke in Scotland.

Does ethnic diversity explain intra-UK variation in mortality? A longitudinal cohort study

OBJECTIVES

It has been proposed that part of the explanation for higher mortality in Scotland compared with England and Wales, and Glasgow compared with other UK cities, relates to greater ethnic diversity in England and Wales. We sought to assess the extent to which this excess was attenuated by adjusting for ethnicity. We additionally explored the role of country of birth in any observed differences.

SETTING

Scotland and England and Wales; Glasgow and Manchester.

PARTICIPANTS

We used the Scottish Longitudinal Study and the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales (2001-2010). Participants (362 491 in total) were aged 35-74 years at baseline.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Risk of all-cause mortality between 35 and 74 years old in Scotland and England and Wales, and in Glasgow and Manchester, adjusting for age, gender, socioeconomic position (SEP), ethnicity and country of birth.

RESULTS

18% of the Manchester sample was non-White compared with 3% in Glasgow (England and Wales: 10.4%; Scotland: 1.2%). The mortality incidence rate ratio was 1.33 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.56) in Glasgow compared with Manchester. This reduced to 1.25 (1.07 to 1.47) adjusting for SEP, and to 1.20 (1.02 to 1.42) adjusting for ethnicity and country of birth. For Scotland versus England and Wales, the corresponding figures were 18% higher mortality, reducing to 10%, and then 7%. Non-Whites born outside the UK had lower mortality. In the Scottish samples only, non-Whites born in the UK had significantly higher mortality than Whites born in the UK.

CONCLUSIONS

The research supports the hypothesis that ethnic diversity and migration from outside UK play a role in explaining Scottish excess mortality. In Glasgow especially, however, a large excess remains: thus, previously articulated policy implications (addressing poverty, vulnerability and inequality) still apply.

Patterns of hospital admission in 54 501 patients with epistaxis over a 20-year period in Scotland, UK

BACKGROUND

Epistaxis affects most people over their lifetime. It is the commonest ear, nose and throat emergency. Hospital admission and socio-economic deprivation have been associated with mental health disorders, respiratory illness and with emergency hospital admissions. Low socio-economic status has never previously been associated with epistaxis, a common reason for admission to ear, nose and throat departments throughout the UK.

METHODS

Demographics from Information Services Division Scotland were analysed over a period of 20 years. This focused on gender, number of admissions, number of bed days, socio-economic deprivation (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation) and mortality within 1 year.

RESULTS

Data from 54 501 patients were assessed. Admission numbers and length of stay have significantly decreased (P < 0.0001). Males are more frequently affected (P = 0.001). Admission numbers were higher for patients in more deprived areas (P < 0.001). Mean duration of stay has decreased by 1 bed day. Surgical intervention of epistaxis has increased significantly (P < 0.001). There is an associated 1-year mortality rate of 9.8% following epistaxis.

CONCLUSION

There has been a significant decrease in hospital admissions and length of hospital stay in patients admitted with epistaxis over the past 20 years. There is a significant association with deprivation and epistaxis admission.

Time to address the double inequality of differences in dietary intake between Scotland and England

Geographical disparities in health outcomes have been evident across the UK for decades. Recent analysis on the dietary differences between Scotland and England that might go some way to explain these health differences is limited. This study aimed to assess whether, and to what degree, aspects of diet and nutrition differ between Scottish and English populations, specifically between those with similar household incomes. A period of 12 years of UK food purchase data (2001-2012) were pooled and used to estimate household-level consumption data for Scotland and England. Population mean food consumption and nutrient intakes were estimated, adjusting for known confounders (year, age of household reference person, age they left full-time education and income). Comparison was also made within equivalised income quintiles. Analysis showed that the foods and nutrients that should be increased in the diet (highlighted in the Scottish Dietary Goals) were lower in Scotland than in England (e.g. fruit and vegetables 267 g/d; 99 % CI 259, 274 v. 298 g/d; 99 % CI 296, 301), P<0·001). Similarly, foods and drinks linked with poor health outcomes were higher in Scotland. These regional inequalities in diet were even more pronounced in the lower-income groups (e.g. red and processed meat consumption in the lowest-income quintile was 65 g/d; 99 % CI 61, 69 in Scotland v. 58 g/day; 99 % CI 57, 60 in England, P<0·001, but similar in the highest-income quintile (58 g/d; 99 % CI 54, 61 v. 59 g/d; 99 % CI 58, 60, respectively). A poorer diet in Scotland compared with England, particularly among disadvantaged groups, may contribute to differences in excess mortality between countries.

Site-specific cancer mortality inequalities by employment and occupational groups: a cohort study among Belgian adults, 2001-2011

OBJECTIVE

This study probes into site-specific cancer mortality inequalities by employment and occupational group among Belgians, adjusted for other indicators of socioeconomic (SE) position.

DESIGN

This cohort study is based on record linkage between the Belgian censuses of 1991 and 2001 and register data on emigration and mortality for 01/10/2001 to 31/12/2011.

SETTING

Belgium.

PARTICIPANTS

The study population contains all Belgians within the economically active age (25-65 years) at the census of 1991.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Both absolute and relative measures were calculated. First, age-standardised mortality rates have been calculated, directly standardised to the Belgian population. Second, mortality rate ratios were calculated using Poisson's regression, adjusted for education, housing conditions, attained age, region and migrant background.

RESULTS

This study highlights inequalities in site-specific cancer mortality, both related to being employed or not and to the occupational group of the employed population. Unemployed men and women show consistently higher overall and site-specific cancer mortality compared with the employed group. Also within the employed group, inequalities are observed by occupational group. Generally manual workers and service and sales workers have higher site-specific cancer mortality rates compared with white-collar workers and agricultural and fishery workers. These inequalities are manifest for almost all preventable cancer sites, especially those cancer sites related to alcohol and smoking such as cancers of the lung, oesophagus and head and neck. Overall, occupational inequalities were less pronounced among women compared with men.

CONCLUSIONS

Important SE inequalities in site-specific cancer mortality were observed by employment and occupational group. Ensuring financial security for the unemployed is a key issue in this regard. Future studies could also take a look at other working regimes, for instance temporary employment or part-time employment and their relation to health.

Patterns of mortality by occupation in the UK, 1991-2011: a comparative analysis of linked census and mortality records

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality by occupation are scarce. We aimed to assess mortality by occupation in the UK, differences in rates between England and Wales and Scotland, and changes over time in Scotland.

METHODS

We analysed adults of working age (20-59 years) using linked census and death records. Main occupation was coded into more than 60 groups in the 2001 census, with mortality follow-up until Dec 31, 2011. Comparable occupation data were available for Scotland in 1991, allowing assessment of trends over time. We calculated age-standardised all-cause mortality rates (per 100 000 person-years), stratified by sex. We used Monte Carlo simulation to derive p values and 95% CIs for the difference in mortality over time and between England and Wales and Scotland.

FINDINGS

During 4·51 million person-years of follow-up, mortality rates by occupation differed by more than three times between the lowest and highest observed rates in both men and women. Among men in England and Wales, health professionals had the lowest mortality (225 deaths per 100 000 person-years [95% CI 145-304]), with low rates also shown in managers and teachers. The highest mortality rates were in elementary construction (701 deaths per 100 000 person-years [95% CI 593-809]), and housekeeping and factory workers. Among women, teachers and business professionals had low mortality, and factory workers and garment trade workers had high rates. Mortality rates have generally fallen, but have stagnated or even increased among women in some occupations, such as cleaners (337 deaths per 100 000 person years [95% CI 292-382] in 1991, rising to 426 deaths per 100 000 person years in 2001 [371-481]). Findings from simulation models suggested that if mortality rates by occupation in England and Wales applied to Scotland, 631 fewer men (95% CI 285-979; a 9·7% decrease) and 273 fewer women (26-513; 6·7% decrease) of working age would die in Scotland every year. Excess deaths in Scotland were concentrated among lower skilled occupations (eg, female cleaners).

INTERPRETATION

Mortality rates differ greatly by occupation. The excess mortality in Scotland is concentrated among low-skilled workers and, although mortality has improved in men and women in most occupational groups, some groups have experienced increased rates. Future research investigating the specific causes of death at the detailed occupational level will be valuable, particularly with a view to understanding the health implications of precarious employment and the need to improve working conditions in very specific occupational groups.

FUNDING

None.

Multimorbidity, disadvantage, and patient engagement within a specialist homeless health service in the UK: an in-depth study of general practice data

Background

There is a paucity of current health data regarding users of a specialist homeless health service in the UK.

Aim

To describe the health of users of a specialist homeless health service by assessing levels of multimorbidity, social exclusion — by measuring severe and multiple disadvantage (SMD) — and patient engagement with health care.

Design & setting

Analysis of patient-level data from computerised records of patients registered with a specialist homeless health service in Glasgow, Scotland.

Method

Data for 133 patients were extracted using a data extraction form. Multimorbidity and SMD were described using categorisation adapted from previous literature in this field. Stepwise regression analysis was carried out to assess the relationship between domains of SMD experienced and the number of long-term conditions (LTCs) a patient had.

Results

The average age of patients in the cohort was 42.8 years, however levels of multimorbidity were comparable to those aged ≥85 years in the general population. The average number of LTCs was 2.8 per patient, with 60.9% of patients having both mental and physical comorbidity. SMD was categorised into three domains: homelessness; substance misuse; and previous imprisonment. More than 90.0% of patients experienced ≥2 domains of SMD, and SMD experiences were associated with multimorbidity: as domains of SMD experiences increased, so did the number of LTCs a patient was recorded as having.

Conclusion

This cohort of patients has a complex burden of health and social care needs, which may act as barriers in the provision of effective health care.

Identifying dietary differences between Scotland and England: a rapid review of the literature

OBJECTIVE

Rates of premature mortality have been higher in Scotland than in England since the 1970s. Given the known association of diet with chronic disease, the study objective was to identify and synthesise evidence on current and historical differences in food and nutrient intakes in Scotland and England.

DESIGN

A rapid review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature was carried out. After an initial scoping search, Medline, CINAHL, Embase and Web of Science were searched. Relevant grey literature was also included. Inclusion criteria were: any date; measures of dietary intake; representative populations; cross-sectional or observational cohort studies; and English-language publications. Study quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-sectional Studies. A narrative synthesis of extracted information was conducted.

RESULTS

Fifty publications and reports were included in the review. Results indicated that children and adults in Scotland had lower intakes of vegetables and vitamins compared with those living in England. Higher intakes of salt in Scotland were also identified. Data were limited by small Scottish samples, difficulty in finding England-level data, lack of statistical testing and adjustment for key confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

Further investigation of adequately powered and analysed surveys is required to examine more fully dietary differences between Scotland and England. This would provide greater insight into potential causes of excess mortality in Scotland compared with England and suitable policy recommendations to address these inequalities.

Do differences in religious affiliation explain high levels of excess mortality in the UK?

BACKGROUND

High levels of mortality not explained by differences in socioeconomic status (SES) have been observed for Scotland and its largest city, Glasgow, compared with elsewhere in the UK. Previous cross-sectional research highlighted potentially relevant differences in social capital, including religious social capital (the benefits of social participation in organised religion). The aim of this study was to use longitudinal data to assess whether religious affiliation (as measured in UK censuses) attenuated the high levels of Scottish excess mortality.

METHODS

The study used the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) and the ONS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales. Risk of all-cause mortality (2001-2010) was compared between residents aged 35 and 74 years of Scotland and England and Wales, and between Glasgow and Liverpool/Manchester, using Poisson regression. Models adjusted for age, gender, SES and religious affiliation. Similar country-based analyses were undertaken for suicide.

RESULTS

After adjustment for age, gender and SES, all-cause mortality was 9% higher in Scotland than in England and Wales, and 27% higher in Glasgow than in Liverpool or Manchester. Religious affiliation was notably lower across Scotland; but, its inclusion in the models did not attenuate the level of Scottish excess all-cause mortality, and only marginally lowered the differences in risk of suicide.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in religious affiliation do not explain the higher mortality rates in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK. However, it is possible that other aspects of religion such as religiosity or religious participation which were not assessed here may still be important.

Health Inequalities Associated with Post-Stroke Visual Impairment in the United Kingdom and Ireland: A Systematic Review

The aim of this study was to report on the health inequalities facing stroke survivors with visual impairments as described in the current literature. A systemic review of the literature was conducted to investigate the potential health inequalities facing stroke survivors with subsequent visual impairments. A quality-of-evidence and risk-of-bias assessment was conducted for each of the included articles using the appropriate tool dependent on the type of article. Only four articles discussed health inequalities affecting stroke survivors with visual impairment specifically. A further 23 articles identified health inequalities after stroke, and 38 reported on health inequalities within the visually impaired UK or Irish population. Stroke survivors with visual impairment face inconsistency in eye care provision nationally, along with variability in the assessment and management of visual disorders. The subgroups identified as most at risk were females; black ethnicity; lower socioeconomic status; older age; and those with lower education attainment. The issue of inconsistent service provision for this population must be addressed in future research. Further research must be conducted in order to firmly establish whether or not stroke survivors are at risk of the aforementioned sociodemographic and economic inequalities.

Psychological distress in relation to site specific cancer mortality: pooling of unpublished data from 16 prospective cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

 To examine the role of psychological distress (anxiety and depression) as a potential predictor of site specific cancer mortality.

DESIGN

 Pooling of individual participant data from 16 prospective cohort studies initiated 1994-2008.

SETTING

 Nationally representative samples drawn from the health survey for England (13 studies) and the Scottish health survey (three studies).

PARTICIPANTS

 163 363 men and women aged 16 or older at study induction, who were initially free of a cancer diagnosis, provided self reported psychological distress scores (based on the general health questionnaire, GHQ-12) and consented to health record linkage.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

 Vital status records used to ascertain death from 16 site specific malignancies; the three Scottish studies also had information on cancer registration (incidence).

RESULTS

 The studies collectively contributed an average of 9.5 years of mortality surveillance during which there were 16 267 deaths (4353 from cancer). After adjustment for age, sex, education, socioeconomic status, body mass index (BMI), and smoking and alcohol intake, and with reverse causality (by left censoring) and missing data (by imputation) taken into account, relative to people in the least distressed group (GHQ-12 score 0-6), death rates in the most distressed group (score 7-12) were consistently raised for cancer of all sites combined (multivariable adjusted hazard ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.48) and cancers not related to smoking (1.45, 1.23 to 1.71), as well as carcinoma of the colorectum (1.84, 1.21 to 2.78), prostate (2.42, 1.29 to 4.54), pancreas (2.76, 1.47 to 5.19), oesophagus (2.59, 1.34 to 5.00), and for leukaemia (3.86, 1.42 to 10.5). Stepwise associations across the full range of distress scores were observed for colorectal and prostate cancer.

CONCLUSION

 This study contributes to the growing evidence that psychological distress might have some predictive capacity for selected cancer presentations, in addition to other somatic diseases.

Adjusted indices of multiple deprivation to enable comparisons within and between constituent countries of the UK including an illustration using mortality rates

OBJECTIVES

Social determinants can have a major impact on health and as a consequence substantial inequalities are seen between and within countries. The study of inequalities between countries relies on having accurate and consistent measures of deprivation across the country borders. However, in the UK most socioeconomic deprivation measures are not comparable between countries. We give a method of adjusting the Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) for use across the UK, describe the deprivation of each UK country, and show the problems introduced by naïvely using country-specific deprivation measures in a UK-wide analysis of mortality rates.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

42 148 geographic areas covering the population of the UK.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Adjusted IMD scores based on the income and employment domains of country-specific IMD scores, adjusting for the contribution of other domains. The mortality rate among people aged under 75 years standardised to the UK age structure was compared between country-specific and UK-adjusted IMD quintiles.

RESULTS

Of the constituent countries of the UK, Northern Ireland was the most deprived with 37% of the population living in areas in the most deprived fifth of the UK, followed by Wales with 22% of the population living in the most deprived fifth of the UK. England and Scotland had similar levels of deprivation. Deprivation-specific mortality rates were similar in England and Wales. Northern Ireland had lower mortality rates than England for each deprivation group, with similar differences for each group. Scotland had higher mortality rates than England for each deprivation group, with larger differences for more deprived groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses of between-country and within-country inequalities by socioeconomic position should use consistent measures; failing to use consistent measures may give misleading results. The published adjusted IMD scores we describe allow consistent analysis across the UK.

Trends in the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease in the UK

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the UK is declining; however, CVD burden comes not only from deaths, but also from those living with the disease. This review uses national datasets with multiple years of data to present secular trends in mortality, morbidity, and treatment for all CVD and specific subtypes within the UK. We produced all-ages and premature age-standardised mortality rates by gender, standardised to the 2013 European Standard Population, using data from the national statistics agencies of the UK. We obtained data on hospital admissions from the National Health Service records, using the main diagnosis. Prevalence data come from the Quality and Outcome Framework and national surveys. Total CVD mortality declined by 68% between 1980 and 2013 in the UK. Similar decreases were seen for coronary heart disease and stroke. Coronary heart disease prevalence has remained constant at around 3% in England and 4% in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Hospital admissions for all CVD increased by over 46 000 between 2010/2011 and 2013/2014, with more than 36 500 of these increased admissions for men. Hospital admission trends vary by country and CVD condition. CVD prescriptions and operations have increased over the last decade. CVD mortality has declined notably for both men and women while hospital admissions have increased. CVD prevalence shows little evidence of change. This review highlights that improvements in the burden of CVD have not occurred equally between the four constituent countries of the UK, or between men and women.

Unravelling the Glasgow effect: The relationship between accumulative bio- psychosocial stress, stress reactivity and Scotland's health problems

To date, multiple hypotheses have been proposed for the Scottish effect and, more specifically, Glasgow's high mortality rate and the associated Glasgow effect. Previous authors have highlighted the improbability of a single factor as responsible for this effect with seventeen possible hypotheses presented. These have ranged from socio-economic factors, lifestyle and cultural factors such as sectarianism, and political and economic factors. Although these may all be contributory factors to this paradox, the underpinning reasons for the observed effect remain relatively unexplained. In this paper, we suggest that the compounding effect of a unique blend of accumulating life stressors may predispose Scots, and particularly socially-disadvantaged Glaswegians, to a wide-range of health disorders. In short, a confluence of social, environmental, attitudinal and cultural stressors perhaps combine to negatively influence biological health. Future directions should consider the stress remediating role of physical activity, and the problems presented by barriers to participation in physical activity and exercise during key transitional stages of life.

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Evidence explaining the Scotland and associated Glasgow effects remains elusive.

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We suggest that accumulating life stressors predispose Scots to a wide-range of health disorders.

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Physical Activity (PA) and stress are bidirectional, we highlight the remediating role of PA.

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Future work should focus on barriers and facilitators of PA.

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Overcoming barriers to participation in PA and exercise at transitional stages of life is crucial.

Dying younger in Scotland: Trends in mortality and deprivation relative to England and Wales, 1981-2011

Given previous evidence that not all Scotland's higher mortality compared to England & Wales (E&W) can be explained by deprivation, the aim was to enhance understanding of this excess by analysing changes in deprivation and mortality in Scotland and E&W between 1981 and 2011. Mortality was compared by means of direct standardisation and log-linear Poisson regression models, adjusting for age, sex and deprivation. Different measures of deprivation were employed, calculated at different spatial scales. Results show that Scotland became less deprived compared to E&W between 1981 and 2011. However, the Scottish excess (the difference in mortality rates relative to E&W after adjustment for deprivation) increased from 4% higher (c.1981) to 10% higher in 2010-12. The latter figure equates to c. 5000 extra deaths per year. The increase was driven by higher mortality from cancer, suicide, alcohol related causes and drugs-related poisonings. The size and increase in Scottish excess mortality are major concerns. Investigations into its underlying causes continue, the findings of which will be relevant to other populations, given that similar excesses have been observed elsewhere in Britain.

The importance of age, sex and place in understanding socioeconomic inequalities in allostatic load: Evidence from the Scottish Health Survey (2008-2011)

BACKGROUND

Given the broad spectrum of health and wellbeing outcomes that are patterned by socioeconomic position (SEP), it has been suggested that there may be common biological pathways linking SEP and health. Allostatic load is one such pathway, which aims to measure cumulative burden/dysregulation across multiple physiological systems. This study aimed to determine the contextual and demographic factors (age, sex and place) that may be important in better understanding the links between lower SEP and higher allostatic load.

METHODS

Data were from a nationally representative sample of adults (18+): the Scottish Health Survey (2008-2011). Higher SEP ('1') was defined as having 'Higher'-level, secondary school qualifications versus having lower level or no qualifications ('0'). For allostatic load, a range of 10 biomarkers across the cardiovascular, metabolic and immune systems were used. Respondents were scored "1" for each biomarker that fell into the highest quartile of risk. Linear regressions were run in STATA, including SEP, age (continuous and as a 7-category variable), sex (male/female), urbanity (a 5-category variable ranging from primary cities to remote rural areas) and geographical location (based on 10 area-level healthboards). Interactions between SEP and each predictor, as well as stratified analyses, were tested.

RESULTS

Lower SEP was associated with higher allostatic load even after adjusting for age, sex and place (b = -0.631, 95 % CI -0.795, -0.389, p < 0.001). There was no significant effect moderation between SEP and age, sex or place. Stratified analysis did show that the inequality identified in the baseline models widened with age, becoming significant at ages 35-44, before narrowing at older ages (75+). There was no difference by sex, but more mixed findings with regards place (urbanity or geographical location), with a mix of significant and non-significant results by SEP that did not appear to follow any pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

Inequalities in allostatic load by educational attainment, as a measure of SEP, are consistent with age, sex and place. However, these stratified analyses showed that these inequalities did widen with age, before narrowing in later life, matching the patterns seen with other objective and subjective health measures. However, effect moderation analysis did not support evidence of a statistically significant interaction between age and SEP. Context remains an important feature in understanding and potentially addressing inequalities, although may be less of an issue in terms of physiological burden.

Ischemic stroke management in West Scotland: a chart review

BACKGROUND

Little information is available about the long-term management of ischemic stroke (IS) in West Scotland. In this study we aim to describe the management of IS at onset, admission, and during follow-up among patients who survived an IS event.

METHODS

General practitioners (GPs) (n=20) were randomly selected to recruit IS patients and extract data about patient characteristics, hospitalizations, discharge, and ambulatory care from GP databases, hospital letters, and direct contact with patients and their relatives. Descriptive analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

One hundred and one patients were included, with a mean age of 65.6±13.4. About half of the patients contacted their GPs at the time of onset (45.4%). Cardiovascular history was prevalent in 29.7% of cases, and 14% of all cases were recurrences. Of the patients, 89 (88%) were hospitalized with mean length of stay (LOS) 11.8 days. Treatment was administered on average within 12.9 hours of admission and 23.6% of the admitted patients received thrombolytic treatment. During the 1-year follow-up period, 33.6% of patients were rehospitalized and the mean LOS was 15.1±29.5 days. Further, patients on average sought nursing care (10.9%), physical therapy (45.5%), occupational therapy (27.7%), speech therapy (12.9%), and professional caregivers (12%).

CONCLUSION

The health-care resource utilization of IS patients is a major driver of economic burden.

Perspectives on differing health outcomes by city: accounting for Glasgow's excess mortality

Several health outcomes (including mortality) and health-related behaviors are known to be worse in Scotland than in comparable areas of Europe and the United Kingdom. Within Scotland, Greater Glasgow (in West Central Scotland) experiences disproportionately poorer outcomes independent of measurable variation in socioeconomic status and other important determinants. Many reasons for this have been proposed, particularly related to deprivation, inequalities, and variation in health behaviors. The use of models (such as the application of Bradford Hill's viewpoints on causality to the different hypotheses) has provided useful insights on potentially causal mechanisms, with health behaviors and inequalities likely to represent the strongest individual candidates. This review describes the evolution of our understanding of Glasgow's excess mortality, summarizes some of the key work in this area, and provides some suggestions for future areas of exploration. In the context of demographic change, the experience in Glasgow is an important example of the complexity that frequently lies behind observed variations in health outcomes within and between populations. A comprehensive explanation of Glasgow's excess mortality may continue to remain elusive, but is likely to lie in a complex and difficult-to-measure interplay of health determinants acting at different levels in society throughout the life course. Lessons learned from the detailed examination of different potentially causative determinants in Scotland may provide useful methodological insights that may be applied in other settings. Ongoing efforts to unravel the causal mechanisms are needed to inform public health efforts to reduce health inequalities and improve outcomes in Scotland.

Always looking on the bright side of life? Exploring optimism and health in three UK post-industrial urban settings

BACKGROUND

Many theories have been proposed to explain the high levels of 'excess' mortality (i.e. higher mortality over and above that explained by differences in socio-economic circumstances) shown in Scotland-and, especially, in its largest city, Glasgow-compared with elsewhere in the UK. One such proposal relates to differences in optimism, given previously reported evidence of the health benefits of an optimistic outlook.

METHODS

A representative survey of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester was undertaken in 2011. Optimism was measured by the Life Orientation Test (Revised) (LOT-R), and compared between the cities by means of multiple linear regression models, adjusting for any differences in sample characteristics.

RESULTS

Unadjusted analyses showed LOT-R scores to be similar in Glasgow and Liverpool (mean score (SD): 14.7 (4.0) for both), but lower in Manchester (13.9 (3.8)). This was consistent in analyses by age, gender and social class. Multiple regression confirmed the city results: compared with Glasgow, optimism was either similar (Liverpool: adjusted difference in mean score: -0.16 (95% CI -0.45 to 0.13)) or lower (Manchester: -0.85 (-1.14 to -0.56)).

CONCLUSIONS

The reasons for high levels of Scottish 'excess' mortality remain unclear. However, differences in psychological outlook such as optimism appear to be an unlikely explanation.

Comparing levels of social capital in three northern post-industrial UK cities

OBJECTIVES

A high level of 'excess' mortality (i.e. that seemingly not explained by deprivation) has been shown for Scotland compared to England & Wales and, in particular, for its largest city, Glasgow, compared to the similarly deprived postindustrial English cities of Liverpool and Manchester. The excess has been observed across all social classes, but, for premature mortality, has been shown to be highest in comparison of those of lowest socio-economic status (SES). Many theories have been proposed to explain this phenomenon. One such suggestion relates to potential differences in social capital between the cities, given the previously evidenced links between social capital and mortality. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether any aspects of social capital differed between the cities and whether, therefore, this might be a plausible explanation for some of the excess mortality observed in Glasgow.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

A representative survey of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester was undertaken in 2011. Social capital was measured using an expanded version of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) core 'Social Capital Harmonised Question Set'. Differences between the cities in five sets of social capital topics (views about the local area, civic participation, social networks and support, social participation, and reciprocity and trust) were explored by means of a series of multivariate regression models, while controlling for differences in the characteristics (age, gender, SES, ethnicity etc.) of the samples.

RESULTS

Some, but not all, aspects of social capital were lower among the Glasgow sample compared to those in Liverpool and Manchester. A number of these differences were greatest among those of higher, rather than lower, SES. Levels of social participation, trust and (some measures of) reciprocity were lower in Glasgow, particularly in comparison with Liverpool. However, assessment of any potential impact of these differences is limited by the cross-sectional nature of the data.

CONCLUSIONS

The analyses suggest it is at least possible that differences in some aspects of social capital could play some part in explaining Glasgow's excess mortality, especially among particular sections of its population (e.g. those of higher SES). However, in the absence of more detailed longitudinal data, this remains speculative.

Comparing Antonovsky's sense of coherence scale across three UK post-industrial cities

OBJECTIVES

High levels of 'excess' mortality (ie, that seemingly not explained by deprivation) have been shown for Scotland compared to England and Wales and, especially, for its largest city, Glasgow, compared to the similarly deprived English cities of Liverpool and Manchester. It has been suggested that this excess may be related to differences in 'Sense of Coherence' (SoC) between the populations. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether levels of SoC differed between these cities and whether, therefore, this could be a plausible explanation for the 'excess'.

SETTING

Three post-industrial UK cities: Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester.

PARTICIPANTS

A representative sample of more than 3700 adults (over 1200 in each city).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

SoC was measured using Antonovsky's 13-item scale (SOC-13). Multivariate linear regression was used to compare SoC between the cities while controlling for characteristics (age, gender, SES etc) of the samples. Additional modelling explored whether differences in SoC moderated city differences in levels of self-assessed health (SAH).

RESULTS

SoC was higher, not lower, among the Glasgow sample. Fully adjusted mean SoC scores for residents of Liverpool and Manchester were, respectively, 5.1 (-5.1 (95% CI -6.0 to -4.1)) and 8.1 (-8.1 (-9.1 to -7.2)) lower than those in Glasgow. The additional modelling confirmed the relationship between SoC and SAH: a 1 unit increase in SoC predicted approximately 3% lower likelihood of reporting bad/very bad health (OR=0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.98)): given the slightly worse SAH in Glasgow, this resulted in slightly lower odds of reporting bad/very bad health for the Liverpool and Manchester samples compared to Glasgow.

CONCLUSIONS

The reasons for the high levels of 'excess' mortality seen in Scotland and particularly Glasgow remain unclear. However, on the basis of these analyses, it appears unlikely that a low SoC provides any explanation.