Daily mortality and environment in English conurbations. Air pollution, low temperature, and influenza in Greater London

SARS-CoV-2 phase I transmission and mutability linked to the interplay of climatic variables: a global observation on the pandemic spread

The study aims to determine the impact of global meteorological parameters on SARS-COV-2, including population density and initiation of lockdown in twelve different countries. The daily trend of these parameters and COVID-19 variables from February 15th to April 25th, 2020, were considered. Asian countries show an increasing trend between infection rate and population density. A direct relationship between the time-lapse of the first infected case and the period of suspension of movement controls the transmissivity of COVID-19 in Asian countries. The increase in temperature has led to an increase in COVID-19 spread, while the decrease in humidity is consistent with the trend in daily deaths during the peak of the pandemic in European countries. Countries with 65°F temperature and 5 mm rainfall have a negative impact on COVID-19 spread. Lower oxygen availability in the atmosphere, fine droplets of submicron size together with infectious aerosols, and low wind speed have contributed to the increase in total cases and mortality in Germany and France. The onset of the D614G mutation and subsequent changes to D614 before March, later G614 in mid-March, and S943P, A831V, D839/Y/N/E in April were observed in Asian and European countries. The results of the correlation and factor analysis show that the COVID-19 cases and the climatic factors are significantly correlated with each other. The optimum meteorological conditions for the prevalence of G614 were identified. It was observed that the complex interaction of global meteorological factors and changes in the mutational form of CoV-2 phase I influenced the daily mortality rate along with other comorbid factors. The results of this study could help the public and policymakers to create awareness of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effect of meteorological factors and Air Quality Index on the COVID-19 epidemiological characteristics: an ecological study among 210 countries

The survival of COVID-19 in different environments may be affected by a variety of weather, pollution, and seasonal parameters. Therefore, the present study aims to conduct an ecological investigation on COVID-19 average growth rate of daily cases and deaths influenced by environmental factors (temperature, humidity, and air pollution) using a sample size of adjusted cumulative incidence of daily cases and deaths based on five 60-day periods. Research data was gathered on official websites, including information on COVID-19, meteorological data, and air pollution indicators from December 31, 2019, to October 12, 2020, from 210 countries. Spearman correlation and generalized additive model (GAM) were used to analyze the data. During the observed period, the COVID-19 average growth rate of daily cases (r = -0.08, P =0.151) and deaths (r= -0.09, P = 0.207) were not correlated with humidity. Also, there was a negative relationship between the COVID-19 average growth rate of new cases and deaths with the Air Quality Index (AQI) and wind (new cases and wind: r=-0.25, P= 0.04). Furthermore, the data related to the first and second 60 day of the adjusted cumulative incidence of COVID-19 daily cases and deaths were not associated with humidity and Air Quality Index (AQI). The result of GAM showed the effect of AQI on the average growth rate of COVID-19 new cases and deaths. This study provides evidence for a positive relationship between COVID-19 daily cases, deaths, and AQI.

Determination of vulnerable regions of SARS-CoV-2 in Malaysia using meteorology and air quality data

This study aims to explore the state-wise assessment of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic spread in Malaysia with focus on influence of meteorological parameters and air quality. In this study, state-wise COVID-19 data, meteorological parameters and air quality index (AQI) were collected from March 13 to April 30, 2020, which encompass three movement control order (MCO) periods in the country. Overall, total infected cases were observed to be higher in MCO phase 1 and 2 and significantly reduced in MCO phase 3. Due to the variation in the spatial interval of population density and individual immunity, the relationship of these parameters to pandemic spread could not be achieved. The study infers that temperature (T) between 23 and 25 °C and relative humidity (RH) (70-80%) triggered the pandemic spread by increase in the infected cases in northern and central Peninsular Malaysia. Selangor, WP Kuala Lumpur and WP Putrajaya show significantly high infected cases and a definite trend was not observed with respect to a particular meteorological factor. It is identified that high precipitation (PPT), RH and good air quality have reduced the spread in East Malaysia. A negative correlation of T and AQI and positive correlation of RH with total infected cases were found during MCO phase 3. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that T, RH, PPT, dew point (DP) and AQI are the main controlling factors for the spread across the country apart from social distancing. Vulnerability zones were identified based on the spatial analysis of T, RH, PPT and AQI with reference to total infected cases. Based on time series analysis, it was determined that higher RH and T in Peninsular Malaysia and high amount of PPT, RH and good air quality in East Malaysia have controlled the spreading during MCO phase 3. The predominance of D614 mutant was observed prior to March and decreases at the end of March, coinciding with the fluctuation of meteorological factors and air quality. The outcome of this study gives a general awareness to the public on COVID-19 and the influence of meteorological factors. It will also help the policymakers to enhance the management plans against the pandemic spreading apart from social distancing in the next wave of COVID-19.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-021-01719-z.

Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

Meteorological parameters are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza. This study aims to explore the association between Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths and weather parameters. In this study, we collected the daily death numbers of COVID-19, meteorological parameters and air pollutant data from 20 January 2020 to 29 February 2020 in Wuhan, China. Generalized additive model was applied to explore the effect of temperature, humidity and diurnal temperature range on the daily death counts of COVID-19. There were 2299 COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan during the study period. A positive association with COVID-19 daily death counts was observed for diurnal temperature range (r = 0.44), but negative association for relative humidity (r = -0.32). In addition, one unit increase in diurnal temperature range was only associated with a 2.92% (95% CI: 0.61%, 5.28%) increase in COVID-19 deaths in lag 3. However, both 1 unit increase of temperature and absolute humidity were related to the decreased COVID-19 death in lag 3 and lag 5, with the greatest decrease both in lag 3 [-7.50% (95% CI: -10.99%, -3.88%) and -11.41% (95% CI: -19.68%, -2.29%)]. In summary, this study suggests the temperature variation and humidity may also be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality.

Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

Meteorological parameters are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza. This study aims to explore the association between Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths and weather parameters. In this study, we collected the daily death numbers of COVID-19, meteorological parameters and air pollutant data from 20 January 2020 to 29 February 2020 in Wuhan, China. Generalized additive model was applied to explore the effect of temperature, humidity and diurnal temperature range on the daily death counts of COVID-19. There were 2299 COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan during the study period. A positive association with COVID-19 daily death counts was observed for diurnal temperature range (r = 0.44), but negative association for relative humidity (r = -0.32). In addition, one unit increase in diurnal temperature range was only associated with a 2.92% (95% CI: 0.61%, 5.28%) increase in COVID-19 deaths in lag 3. However, both 1 unit increase of temperature and absolute humidity were related to the decreased COVID-19 death in lag 3 and lag 5, with the greatest decrease both in lag 3 [-7.50% (95% CI: -10.99%, -3.88%) and -11.41% (95% CI: -19.68%, -2.29%)]. In summary, this study suggests the temperature variation and humidity may also be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality.

Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Heat and cold have been associated with increased mortality, independently of seasonal trends, but details are little known. This study explores associations between mortality and temperature in two European capitals-Sofia and London-using four years of daily deaths, air pollution, and weather data.

DESIGN

Generalised additive models were used to permit non-linear modelling of confounders such as season and humidity, and to show the shape of mortality-temperature relations-using both two day and two week average temperatures separately. Models with linear terms for heat and cold were used to estimate lags of effect, linear effects, and attributable fractions.

PARTICIPANTS

44701 all age all cause deaths in Sofia (1996-1999) and 256464 in London (1993-1996).

MAIN RESULTS

In London, for each degree of extreme cold (below the 10th centile of the two week mean temperature), mortality increased by 4.2% (95% CI 3.4 to 5.1), and in Sofia by 1.8% (0.6 to 3.9). For each degree rise above the 95th centile of the two day mean, mortality increased by 1.9% (1.4 to 2.4) in London, and 3.5% (2.2 to 4.8) in Sofia. Cold effects appeared after lags of around three days and lasted-particularly in London-at least two weeks. Main heat effects occurred more promptly. There were inverse associations at later lags for heat and cold in Sofia.

CONCLUSIONS

Average temperatures over short periods do not adequately model cold, and may be inadequate for heat if they ignore harvesting effects. Cold temperatures in London, particularly, seem to harm the general population and the effects are not concentrated among persons close to death.

Associations of cold temperatures with GP consultations for respiratory and cardiovascular disease amongst the elderly in London

BACKGROUND

The relationships between cold temperatures and cardio-respiratory mortality in the elderly are well documented. We wished to determine whether similar relationships exist with consultations in the primary care setting and to assess the lag time at which the effects were observed.

METHODS

Generalized additive models were used to regress time-series of daily numbers of general practitioner (GP) consultations by the elderly against temperature, after control for possible confounders and adjustment for overdispersion and serial correlation. Consultation data were available from between 38 452 and 42 772 registered patients aged >or=65 years from 45-47 London practices contributing to the General Practice Research Database between January 1992 and September 1995.

RESULTS

There was little relationship between consultations for respiratory disease and mean temperature on the same day as the day of consultation. However, a strong association was apparent with temperature levels up to 15 days previously, with an increase in consultations being observed particularly as temperatures drop below 5 degrees C. Every 1 degrees C decrease in mean temperatures below 5 degrees C was associated with a 10.5% (95% CI: 7.6%, 13.4%) increase in all respiratory consultations. No relationship was observed between cold temperatures and GP consultations for cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests a delayed effect of a drop in temperature on consultations for respiratory disease in the primary care setting. Information such as this could be used to help prepare practices to anticipate increases in respiratory consultation rates associated with low temperatures.

The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.

The association between two windchill indices and daily mortality variation in The Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to compare temperature and two windchill indices with respect to the strength of their association with daily variation in mortality in the Netherlands during 1979 to 1987. The two windchill indices were those developed by Siple and Passel and by Steadman.

METHODS

Daily numbers of cause-specific deaths were related to the meteorological variables by means of Poisson regression with control for influenza incidence. Lag times were taken into account.

RESULTS

Daily variation in mortality, especially mortality from heart disease, was more strongly related to the Steadman windchill index than to temperature or the Siple and Passel index (34.9%, 31.2%, and 31.5%, respectively, of mortality variation explained). The strongest relation was found with daytime values of the Steadman index.

CONCLUSIONS

In areas where spells of cold are frequently accompanied by strong wind, the use of the Steadman index probably adds much to the identification of weather conditions involving an increased risk of death. The results of this study provide no justification for the wide-spread use (e.g., in the United States) of the Siple and Passel index.

Respiratory illness and mortality in England and Wales. A study of the relationships between weekly data for the incidence of respiratory disease presenting to general practitioners, and registered deaths

The possible relationship between the incidence of respiratory diseases as reported to general practitioners and numbers of registered deaths in England and Wales has been examined. Morbidity data from sentinel practices for the period 1986-1990 (population covered increased from 220,000 to 470,000) were used to calculate weekly rates of aggregated respiratory disease for persons of all ages and for elderly persons (aged 65 years and over). The elderly respiratory disease rates and numbers of deaths were aggregated into 4-week periods; secular and seasonal trends were removed from each series and the two sets of residuals were examined graphically and cross correlation coefficients calculated. There was a very strong positive association between the respiratory disease rate and number of deaths in the same 4-week period and there was also a significant but less pronounced association between respiratory disease in one 4-week period and deaths in the next. After prior separation of weeks according to temperature into four bands, weekly rates for respiratory disease were also strongly associated with the number of weekly deaths for each temperature band. The synchronisation of peaks and troughs in the two series throughout the year supports the hypothesis that a cause and effect relationship exists between respiratory disease in the elderly and number of deaths. Other climatic and meteorological variables besides temperature may play a part in determining the spread of a respiratory disease. There is a for further research to identify the micro-organisms responsible for acute respiratory infections in the elderly.

Deaths in winter in Northern Ireland: the role of low temperature

Many European countries experience a seasonal excess in deaths each winter compared to summer. The magnitude of the excess is greater in the United Kingdom than in many other European countries. Examination of the data for Northern Ireland indicates that myocardial infarction, respiratory disease and stroke exhibit the greatest increases during winter. Excess deaths from these conditions are closely associated with low environmental temperature.

Changes in seasonal mortalities with improvement in home heating in England and Wales from 1964 to 1984

Changes in summer (July-September) and winter (January-March) mortalities of people aged 70-74 in England and Wales from 1964 to 1984 were compared with possible causal factors. Summer mortalities were little affected by annual temperature or influenza epidemics and fell from 1972-1975 for all causes, coronary and respiratory causes, while cerebrovascular mortality fell more rapidly from that time. Cigarette consumption also fell from 1972-1975; falling consumptions of total fat from 1970 and saturated fat from 1972-1975 probably also contributed to the fall in arterial deaths, and likewise falls in prescription rates for tranquillisers and sedatives from 1976-1978 to the fall in respiratory deaths. From 1964 to 1984 use of central heating increased from 13% to 69% of households, domestic fuel consumption increased, and excess mortality in winter from respiratory disease declined by 69%, even relative to summer mortality and when adjusted for varying coldness of winters. The improvement was partly explained by a decline in influenza epidemics. By contrast, excess mortalities in winter from coronary and cerebrovascular disease, although rising in some early influenza epidemics, did not fall significantly as home heating improved. These thrombotic deaths together accounted for 56% of the total excess winter mortality by 1984. The findings support other indications that most of the excess mortality from arterial thrombosis in winter in England and Wales is due to brief excursions outdoors rather than to low indoor temperatures.

Reexamination of London, England, mortality in relation to exposure to acidic aerosols during 1963-1972 winters

Air pollution epidemiology since the 1950s has been able to demonstrate that increases in daily mortality in London, England, were associated with elevated concentrations of index air pollutants, i.e., British Smoke (BS) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). In this work, we reanalyze that portion of the 1958-1972 winter mortality-pollution record for which daily direct acid aerosol measurements were made at a central site in London (St. Bartholomew's Medical College). The purposes of these exploratory analyses are to examine the dataset for indications of a relationship between acid aerosol pollution and human mortality and to compare any noted associations with those for other pollution variables. It is found that the log of acid aerosol concentrations is more strongly associated with raw total mortality in bivariate analyses than is BS or SO2, despite the fact that acid data are available from only one central site (versus seven disperse sites for BS and SO2). The logarithmic nature of the exposure side of the H2SO4-mortality relationship implies a saturation model of pollution effects, possibly due to multiday pollution harvesting influences on a susceptible subpopulation. Moreover, mortality-pollution cross-correlation analyses indicate that mortality effects usually follow pollution in time, supporting a causal relationship between the two. The apparent advantage of H2SO4 over BS in predicting total raw mortality is consistent with the hypothesis that it is the portion of particulate mass of greater health significance and may also allow the development of London mortality results which are more easily transferable to other environments than is the case for existing BS results.

THe changing seasonality of infant deaths in England and Wales 1912-78 and its relation to seasonal temperature

Seasonal variation in the rates of stillbirth, and of deaths under the age of one year, were studied for England and Wales in order to examine (a) changes in the seasonal variation over the years and (b) the correlation between seasonal rates and seasonal temperatures. The quarterly rates of stillbirths were studied for the period 1928-78; and of deaths under the age of one year, in six different age groups, for the period 1912-78. A disappearance of seasonal variation in rates ('deseasonality') occurrred from stillbirths in about 1950, and for neonatal deaths in about 1965. For deaths at 1-2 months a trend towards deseasonality has been apparent since 1955, but there has been no such trends for deaths at 3-11 months of age. In the period before deseasonality, and for the first quarter of the year, there was a high negative correlation between the neonatal death rate and the mean temperature in England and Wales but this correlation fell as the seasonal variation in rates fell. The findings suggest that seasonal variation in the neonatal death rate was closely related to winter temperatures during the period 1921-60. For deaths at 1-11 months old, there has been and still is a relation between temperature and seasonal variation in rates, but the relation was less close than for the neonatal death rate.

Monitoring disease in England and Wales: methods applicable to routine data-collecting systems

This paper reviews routine data-collecting systems and methods for disease surveillance in England and Wales. It discusses population-based correlation studies, which seek to explain disease trends by relating routine health statistics to possible causative agents on a secular, geographical, or occupational basis. It describes recent developments in linking information collected by routine general purpose systems as a means of identifying and following individuals exposed to potential hazards.