Estimating the attributable fraction of mortality from acute respiratory distress syndrome to inform enrichment in future randomised clinical trials

Expert perspectives on ECCO2R for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure: consensus of a 2022 European roundtable meeting

BACKGROUND

By controlling hypercapnia, respiratory acidosis, and associated consequences, extracorporeal CO2 removal (ECCO2R) has the potential to facilitate ultra-protective lung ventilation (UPLV) strategies and to decrease injury from mechanical ventilation. We convened a meeting of European intensivists and nephrologists and used a modified Delphi process to provide updated insights into the role of ECCO2R in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and to identify recommendations for a future randomized controlled trial.

RESULTS

The group agreed that lung protective ventilation and UPLV should have distinct definitions, with UPLV primarily defined by a tidal volume (VT) of 4-6 mL/kg predicted body weight with a driving pressure (ΔP) ≤ 14-15 cmH2O. Fourteen (93%) participants agreed that ECCO2R would be needed in the majority of patients to implement UPLV. Furthermore, 10 participants (majority, 63%) would select patients with PaO2:FiO2 > 100 mmHg (> 13.3 kPa) and 14 (consensus, 88%) would select patients with a ventilatory ratio of > 2.5-3. A minimum CO2 removal rate of 80 mL/min delivered by continuous renal support machines was suggested (11/14 participants, 79%) for this objective, using a short, double-lumen catheter inserted into the right internal jugular vein as the preferred vascular access. Of the participants, 14/15 (93%, consensus) stated that a new randomized trial of ECCO2R is needed in patients with ARDS. A ΔP of ≥ 14-15 cmH2O was suggested by 12/14 participants (86%) as the primary inclusion criterion.

CONCLUSIONS

ECCO2R may facilitate UPLV with lower volume and pressures provided by the ventilator, while controlling respiratory acidosis. Since recent European Society of Intensive Care Medicine guidelines on ARDS recommended against the use of ECCO2R for the treatment of ARDS outside of randomized controlled trials, new trials of ECCO2R are urgently needed, with a ΔP of ≥ 14-15 cmH2O suggested as the primary inclusion criterion.

Incidence of acute kidney injury and attributive mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome randomized trials

PURPOSE

The development of acute kidney injury (AKI) after the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) reduces the chance of organ recovery and survival. The purpose of this study was to examine the AKI rate and attributable mortality in ARDS patients.

METHODS

We performed an individual patient-data analysis including 10 multicenter randomized controlled trials conducted over 20 years. We employed a Super Learner ensemble technique, including a time-dependent analysis, to estimate the adjusted risk of AKI. We calculated the mortality attributable to AKI using an inverse probability of treatment weighting estimator integrated with the Super Learner.

RESULTS

There were 5148 patients included in this study. The overall incidence of AKI was 43.7% (n = 2251). The adjusted risk of AKI ranged from 38.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35.7 to 41.9%) in ARMA, to 55.8% in ROSE (95% CI, 51.9 to 59.6%). 37.1% recovered rapidly from AKI, with a significantly lower recovery rate in recent trials (P < 0.001). The 90-day excess in mortality attributable to AKI was 15.4% (95% CI, 12.8 to 17.9%). It decreased from 25.4% in ARMA (95% CI, 18.7 to 32%), to 11.8% in FACTT (95% CI, 5.5 to 18%) and then remained rather stable over time. The 90-day overall excess in mortality attributable to acute kidney disease was 28.4% (95% CI, 25.3 to 31.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of AKI appears to be stable over time in patients with ARDS enrolled in randomized trials. The development of AKI remains a significant contributing factor to mortality. These estimates are essential for designing future clinical trials for AKI prevention or treatment.

Causes and attributable fraction of death from ARDS in inflammatory phenotypes of sepsis

BACKGROUND

Hypoinflammatory and hyperinflammatory phenotypes have been identified in both Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) and sepsis. Attributable mortality of ARDS in each phenotype of sepsis is yet to be determined. We aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction of death from ARDS (PAFARDS) in hypoinflammatory and hyperinflammatory sepsis, and to determine the primary cause of death within each phenotype.

METHODS

We studied 1737 patients with sepsis from two prospective cohorts. Patients were previously assigned to the hyperinflammatory or hypoinflammatory phenotype using latent class analysis. The PAFARDS in patients with sepsis was estimated separately in the hypo and hyperinflammatory phenotypes. Organ dysfunction, severe comorbidities, and withdrawal of life support were abstracted from the medical record in a subset of patients from the EARLI cohort who died (n = 130/179). Primary cause of death was defined as the organ system that most directly contributed to death or withdrawal of life support.

RESULTS

The PAFARDS was 19% (95%CI 10,28%) in hypoinflammatory sepsis and, 14% (95%CI 6,20%) in hyperinflammatory sepsis. Cause of death differed between the two phenotypes (p < 0.001). Respiratory failure was the most common cause of death in hypoinflammatory sepsis, whereas circulatory shock was the most common cause in hyperinflammatory sepsis. Death with severe underlying comorbidities was more frequent in hypoinflammatory sepsis (81% vs. 67%, p = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

The PAFARDS is modest in both phenotypes whereas primary cause of death among patients with sepsis differed substantially by phenotype. This study identifies challenges in powering future clinical trials to detect changes in mortality outcomes among patients with sepsis and ARDS.

Attributable mortality of ARDS among critically ill patients with sepsis: a multicenter, retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Both sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are common severe diseases in the intensive care unit (ICU). There is no large-scale multicenter study to clarify the attributable mortality of ARDS among septic patients. This study aimed to evaluate the excess mortality of ARDS in critically ill patients with sepsis.

METHODS

The data were obtained from a multicenter, prospective cohort study in 18 Chinese ICUs between January 2014 and August 2015. The study population was septic patients after ICU admission. The patients were categorized into two groups: those who developed ARDS (ARDS group) within seven days following a sepsis diagnosis and those who did not develop ARDS (non-ARDS group). Applying propensity score matching (PSM), patients were matched 1:1 as ARDS and non-ARDS groups. Mortality attributed to ARDS was calculated. Subsequently, we conducted a survival analysis to estimate the impact of ARDS on mortality. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality after sepsis diagnosis.

RESULTS

2323 septic patients were eligible, 67.8% developed ARDS. After PSM, 737 patients with ARDS were matched 1:1 with 737 non-ARDS patients. ARDS's overall 30-day attributable mortality was 11.9% (95% CI 7.5-16.3%, p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that the 30-day attributable mortality of mild, moderate, and severe ARDS was 10.5% (95% CI 4.0-16.8%, p < 0.001), 11.6% (95% CI 4.7-18.4%, p < 0.001) and 18.1% (95% CI 4.5-30.9%, p = 0.006), respectively. ARDS was an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.30 (95% CI 1.03-1.64, p = 0.027), 1.49 (95% CI 1.20-1.85, p < 0.001), and 1.95 (95% CI 1.51-2.52, p < 0.001) for mild, moderate, and severe ARDS, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall 30-day attributable mortality of ARDS among critically ill patients with sepsis was 11.9%. Compared with mild and moderate ARDS, severe ARDS contributed more to death. ARDS was significantly associated with an increase in the 30-day mortality.

Evaluation of pragmatic oxygenation measurement as a proxy for Covid-19 severity

Choosing optimal outcome measures maximizes statistical power, accelerates discovery and improves reliability in early-phase trials. We devised and evaluated a modification to a pragmatic measure of oxygenation function, the [Formula: see text] ratio. Because of the ceiling effect in oxyhaemoglobin saturation, [Formula: see text] ratio ceases to reflect pulmonary oxygenation function at high [Formula: see text] values. We found that the correlation of [Formula: see text] with the reference standard ([Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] ratio) improves substantially when excluding [Formula: see text] and refer to this measure as [Formula: see text]. Using observational data from 39,765 hospitalised COVID-19 patients, we demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is predictive of mortality, and compare the sample sizes required for trials using four different outcome measures. We show that a significant difference in outcome could be detected with the smallest sample size using [Formula: see text]. We demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is an effective intermediate outcome measure in COVID-19. It is a non-invasive measurement, representative of disease severity and provides greater statistical power.