Evaluation of pragmatic oxygenation measurement as a proxy for Covid-19 severity

Choosing optimal outcome measures maximizes statistical power, accelerates discovery and improves reliability in early-phase trials. We devised and evaluated a modification to a pragmatic measure of oxygenation function, the [Formula: see text] ratio. Because of the ceiling effect in oxyhaemoglobin saturation, [Formula: see text] ratio ceases to reflect pulmonary oxygenation function at high [Formula: see text] values. We found that the correlation of [Formula: see text] with the reference standard ([Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] ratio) improves substantially when excluding [Formula: see text] and refer to this measure as [Formula: see text]. Using observational data from 39,765 hospitalised COVID-19 patients, we demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is predictive of mortality, and compare the sample sizes required for trials using four different outcome measures. We show that a significant difference in outcome could be detected with the smallest sample size using [Formula: see text]. We demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is an effective intermediate outcome measure in COVID-19. It is a non-invasive measurement, representative of disease severity and provides greater statistical power.

Reply to Standaert, B. Comment on "Postma et al. Predicted Public Health and Economic Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination with Variable Duration of Protection for Adults ≥60 Years in Belgium"

We have read the commentary from Baudouin Standaert [...].

Predicted Public Health and Economic Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination with Variable Duration of Protection for Adults ≥60 Years in Belgium

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory infection (ARI) in older adults. This study used a static, cohort-based decision-tree model to estimate the public health and economic impact of vaccination against RSV in Belgians aged ≥60 years compared with no vaccination for different vaccine duration of protection profiles from a healthcare payer perspective. Three vaccine protection durations were compared (1, 3, and 5 years), and several sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed. Results showed that an RSV vaccine with a 3-year duration of protection would prevent 154,728 symptomatic RSV-ARI cases, 3688 hospitalizations, and 502 deaths over three years compared to no vaccination in older adults and would save EUR 35,982,857 in direct medical costs in Belgium. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one RSV-ARI case was 11 for the 3-year duration profile, while it was 28 and 8 for the 1- and 5-year vaccine duration profiles, respectively. The model was generally robust in sensitivity analyses varying key input values. This study suggested that vaccination could substantially decrease the public health and economic burden of RSV in adults ≥60 years in Belgium, with benefits increasing with a longer duration of vaccine protection.

260. Corticosteroid treatment in influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 co-infected patients

Background

Co-infections with SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus may become more prevalent now that many countries are easing restrictions to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Co-infected patients are more likely to receive invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and have higher odds of in-hospital mortality. In the RECOVERY trial, dexamethasone was found to reduce the risk of 28-day mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. On June 16, 2020, corticosteroids were included in clinical guidelines for the treatment of COVID-19 patients requiring supplemental oxygen. However, corticosteroid treatment in severe influenza virus infection may increase mortality. The effect of steroids in influenza and COVID-19 co-infected patients is unknown.

Methods

Adult patients with RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus co-infection were evaluated. Patients without supplemental oxygen during admission were excluded. Patients who were hospitalised prior to June 16, 2020 were included in the ‘early’ group and patients who were hospitalised on or after June 16, 2020 were included in the ‘late’ group.

Results

171 co-infected patients were included, 123 patients in the early group (table 1) and 48 in the late group (table 2).

In the early group, 25 patients received steroids. In the late group, 40 patients received steroids.

In the early group, the proportion of patients who were admitted to critical care was slightly lower in the group that received steroids. IMV was similar in both groups. In-hospital mortality was slightly higher in the group treated with steroids.

In the late group, critical care admission and receipt of IMV were higher in the group not treated with corticosteroids than the group with corticosteroid treatment. In-hospital mortality was slightly lower in the group not treated with steroids.

Conclusion

There are differences between co-infected patients who were treated and not treated with corticosteroids and differences between the early and late groups.

A limitation is that no dates were collected for the start of steroid treatment, making it impossible to draw conclusions on the causality of the need for IMV and treatment with steroids in this analysis. Future research should focus on the effect of steroids in COVID-19 and influenza co-infected patients.

Disclosures

Peter Openshaw, PhD, Bavarian Nordic: Advisor/Consultant|Cepheid: Advisor/Consultant|GlaxoSmithKline: Advisor/Consultant|Janssen: Advisor/Consultant|Pfizer: Advisor/Consultant Calum Semple, PhD, Integrum Scientific: Scientific Advisory Board|Integrum Scientific: Stocks/Bonds.

The burden of respiratory syncytial virus in healthy term-born infants in Europe: a prospective birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of hospitalisation in infants. The burden of RSV infection in healthy term infants has not yet been established. Accurate health-care burden data in healthy infants are necessary to determine RSV immunisation policy when RSV immunisation becomes available.

METHODS

We performed a multicentre, prospective, observational birth cohort study in healthy term-born infants (≥37 weeks of gestation) in five sites located in different European countries to determine the health-care burden of RSV. The incidence of RSV-associated hospitalisations in the first year of life was determined by parental questionnaires and hospital chart reviews. We performed active RSV surveillance in a nested cohort to determine the incidence of medically attended RSV infections. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03627572.

FINDINGS

In total, 9154 infants born between July 1, 2017, and April 1, 2020, were followed up during the first year of life and 993 participated in the nested active surveillance cohort. The incidence of RSV-associated hospitalisations in the total cohort was 1·8% (95% CI 1·6-2·1). There were eight paediatric intensive care unit admissions, corresponding to 5·5% of 145 RSV-associated hospitalisations and 0·09% of the total cohort. Incidence of RSV infection in the active surveillance cohort confirmed by any diagnostic assay was 26·2% (24·0-28·6) and that of medically attended RSV infection was 14·1% (12·3-16·0).

INTERPRETATION

RSV-associated acute respiratory infection causes substantial morbidity, leading to the hospitalisation of one in every 56 healthy term-born infants in high-income settings. Immunisation of pregnant women or healthy term-born infants during their first winter season could have a major effect on the health-care burden caused by RSV infections.

FUNDING

Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking, with support from the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations.

Clinical and Viral Factors Associated With Disease Severity and Subsequent Wheezing in Infants With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes substantial morbidity and mortality in infants and young children worldwide. Here we evaluated host demographic and viral factors associated with RSV disease severity in 325 RSV-infected infants under 1 year of age from 3 European countries during 2017-2020. Younger infants had a higher clinical severity (ReSViNET) score and were more likely to require hospitalization, intensive care, respiratory support, and/or mechanical ventilation than older infants (<3 months vs 3 to <6 months and 3 to <6 months vs ≥6 months). Older age (≥6 months vs <3 months), higher viral load, and RSV-A were associated with a greater probability of fever. RSV-A and RSV-B caused similar disease severity and had similar viral dynamics. Infants with a more severe RSV infection, demonstrated by having a higher ReSViNET score, fever, and requiring hospitalization and intensive care, were more likely to have developed subsequent wheezing at 1 year of age.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT03756766.

Controlled Human Infection Challenge Studies with RSV

Despite considerable momentum in the development of RSV vaccines and therapeutics, there remain substantial barriers to the development and licensing of effective agents, particularly in high-risk populations. The unique immunobiology of RSV and lack of clear protective immunological correlates has held back RSV vaccine development, which, therefore, depends on large and costly clinical trials to demonstrate efficacy. Studies involving the deliberate infection of human volunteers offer an intermediate step between pre-clinical and large-scale studies of natural infection. Human challenge has been used to demonstrate the potential efficacy of vaccines and antivirals while improving our understanding of the protective immunity against RSV infection. Early RSV human infection challenge studies determined the role of routes of administration and size of inoculum on the disease. However, inherent limitations, the use of highly attenuated/laboratory-adapted RSV strains and the continued evolutionary adaptation of RSV limits extrapolation of results to present-day vaccine testing. With advances in technology, it is now possible to perform more detailed investigations of human mucosal immunity against RSV in experimentally infected adults and, more recently, older adults to optimise the design of vaccines and novel therapies. These studies identified defects in RSV-induced humoral and CD8+ T cell immunity that may partly explain susceptibility to recurrent RSV infection. We discuss the insights from human infection challenge models, ethical and logistical considerations, potential benefits, and role in streamlining and accelerating novel antivirals and vaccines against RSV. Finally, we consider how human challenges might be extended to include relevant at-risk populations.

Acute kidney injury in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK Study: a prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study investigated adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and hypothesized that risk factors for AKI would include comorbidities and non-White race.

METHODS

A prospective multicentre cohort study was performed using patients admitted to 254 UK hospitals with COVID-19 between 17 January 2020 and 5 December 2020.

RESULTS

Of 85 687 patients, 2198 (2.6%) received acute kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Of 41 294 patients with biochemistry data, 13 000 (31.5%) had biochemical AKI: 8562 stage 1 (65.9%), 2609 stage 2 (20.1%) and 1829 stage 3 (14.1%). The main risk factors for KRT were chronic kidney disease (CKD) [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.41: 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.81], male sex (aOR 2.43: 2.18-2.71) and Black race (aOR 2.17: 1.79-2.63). The main risk factors for biochemical AKI were admission respiratory rate >30 breaths per minute (aOR 1.68: 1.56-1.81), CKD (aOR 1.66: 1.57-1.76) and Black race (aOR 1.44: 1.28-1.61). There was a gradated rise in the risk of 28-day mortality by increasing severity of AKI: stage 1 aOR 1.58 (1.49-1.67), stage 2 aOR 2.41 (2.20-2.64), stage 3 aOR 3.50 (3.14-3.91) and KRT aOR 3.06 (2.75-3.39). AKI rates peaked in April 2020 and the subsequent fall in rates could not be explained by the use of dexamethasone or remdesivir.

CONCLUSIONS

AKI is common in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and it is associated with a heightened risk of mortality. Although the rates of AKI have fallen from the early months of the pandemic, high-risk patients should have their kidney function and fluid status monitored closely.

COVID-19 vaccines: Keeping pace with SARS-CoV-2 variants

As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic evolves, new variants continue to emerge. Some highly transmissible variants, such as Delta, also raised concerns about the effectiveness provided by current vaccines. Understanding immunological correlates of protection and how laboratory findings correspond to clinical effectiveness is imperative to shape future vaccination strategies.

A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Animal Studies Investigating the Relationship Between Serum Antibody, T Lymphocytes, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections occur in human populations around the globe, causing disease of variable severity, disproportionately affecting infants and older adults (>65 years of age). Immune responses can be protective but also contribute to disease. Experimental studies in animals enable detailed investigation of immune responses, provide insights into clinical questions, and accelerate the development of passive and active vaccination. We aimed to review the role of antibody and T-cell responses in relation to RSV disease severity in animals.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis of animal studies examining the association between T-cell responses/phenotype or antibody titers and severity of RSV disease. The PubMed, Zoological Record, and Embase databases were screened from January 1980 to May 2018 to identify animal studies of RSV infection that assessed serum antibody titer or T lymphocytes with disease severity as an outcome. Sixty-three studies were included in the final review.

RESULTS

RSV-specific antibody appears to protect from disease in mice, but such an effect was less evident in bovine RSV. Strong T-cell, Th1, Th2, Th17, CD4/CD8 responses, and weak Treg responses accompany severe disease in mice.

CONCLUSIONS

Murine studies suggest that measures of T-lymphocyte activity (particularly CD4 and CD8 T cells) may be predictive biomarkers of severity. Further inquiry is merited to validate these results and assess relevance as biomarkers for human disease.

Distinct patterns of within-host virus populations between two subgroups of human respiratory syncytial virus

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection in young children globally, but little is known about within-host RSV diversity. Here, we characterised within-host RSV populations using deep-sequencing data from 319 nasopharyngeal swabs collected during 2017-2020. RSV-B had lower consensus diversity than RSV-A at the population level, while exhibiting greater within-host diversity. Two RSV-B consensus sequences had an amino acid alteration (K68N) in the fusion (F) protein, which has been associated with reduced susceptibility to nirsevimab (MEDI8897), a novel RSV monoclonal antibody under development. In addition, several minor variants were identified in the antigenic sites of the F protein, one of which may confer resistance to palivizumab, the only licensed RSV monoclonal antibody. The differences in within-host virus populations emphasise the importance of monitoring for vaccine efficacy and may help to explain the different prevalences of monoclonal antibody-escape mutants between the two subgroups.

T cell assays differentiate clinical and subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections from cross-reactive antiviral responses

Identification of protective T cell responses against SARS-CoV-2 requires distinguishing people infected with SARS-CoV-2 from those with cross-reactive immunity to other coronaviruses. Here we show a range of T cell assays that differentially capture immune function to characterise SARS-CoV-2 responses. Strong ex vivo ELISpot and proliferation responses to multiple antigens (including M, NP and ORF3) are found in 168 PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infected volunteers, but are rare in 119 uninfected volunteers. Highly exposed seronegative healthcare workers with recent COVID-19-compatible illness show T cell response patterns characteristic of infection. By contrast, >90% of convalescent or unexposed people show proliferation and cellular lactate responses to spike subunits S1/S2, indicating pre-existing cross-reactive T cell populations. The detection of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 is therefore critically dependent on assay and antigen selection. Memory responses to specific non-spike proteins provide a method to distinguish recent infection from pre-existing immunity in exposed populations.

Presumed Risk Factors and Biomarkers for Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease and Related Sequelae: Protocol for an Observational Multicenter, Case-Control Study From the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU)

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading viral pathogen associated with acute lower respiratory tract infection and hospitalization in children < 5 years of age worldwide. While there are known clinical risk factors for severe RSV infection, the majority of those hospitalized are previously healthy infants. There is consequently an unmet need to identify biomarkers that predict host response, disease severity, and sequelae. The primary objective is to identify biomarkers of severe RSV acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) in infants. Secondary objectives include establishing biomarkers associated with respiratory sequelae following RSV infection and characterizing the viral load, RSV whole-genome sequencing, host immune response, and transcriptomic, proteomic, metabolomic and epigenetic signatures associated with RSV disease severity. Six hundred thirty infants will be recruited across 3 European countries: the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Participants will be recruited into 2 groups: (1) infants with confirmed RSV ARTI (includes upper and lower respiratory tract infections), 500 without and 50 with comorbidities; and (2) 80 healthy controls. At baseline, participants will have nasopharyngeal, blood, buccal, stool, and urine samples collected, plus complete a questionnaire and 14-day symptom diary. At convalescence (7 weeks ± 1 week post-ARTI), specimen collection will be repeated. Laboratory measures will be correlated with symptom severity scores to identify corresponding biomarkers of disease severity.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT03756766.

Simultaneous Viral Whole-Genome Sequencing and Differential Expression Profiling in Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection of Infants

Targeted metagenomics using strand-specific libraries with target enrichment is a sensitive, generalized approach to pathogen sequencing and transcriptome profiling. Using this method, we recovered 13 (76%) complete human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) genomes from 17 clinical respiratory samples, reconstructed the phylogeny of the infecting viruses, and detected differential gene expression between 2 RSV subgroups, specifically, a lower expression of the P gene and a higher expression of the M2 gene in RSV-A than in RSV-B. This methodology can help to relate viral genetics to clinical phenotype and facilitate ongoing population-level RSV surveillance and vaccine development. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT03627572 and NCT03756766.

The Etiological Role of Common Respiratory Viruses in Acute Respiratory Infections in Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Acute respiratory tract infections (ARI) constitute a substantial disease burden in adults and elderly individuals. We aimed to identify all case-control studies investigating the potential role of respiratory viruses in the etiology of ARI in older adults aged ≥65 years. We conducted a systematic literature review (across 7 databases) of case-control studies published from 1996 to 2017 that investigated the viral profile of older adults with and those without ARI. We then computed a pooled odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval and virus-specific attributable fraction among the exposed (AFE) for 8 common viruses: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza virus (Flu), parainfluenza virus (PIV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), adenovirus (AdV), rhinovirus (RV), bocavirus (BoV), and coronavirus (CoV). From the 16 studies included, there was strong evidence of possible causal attribution for RSV (OR, 8.5 [95% CI, 3.9-18.5]; AFE, 88%), Flu (OR, 8.3 [95% CI, 4.4-15.9]; AFE, 88%), PIV (OR, not available; AFE, approximately 100%), HMPV (OR, 9.8 [95% CI, 2.3-41.0]; AFE, 90%), AdV (OR, not available; AFE, approximately 100%), RV (OR, 7.1 [95% CI, 3.7-13.6]; AFE, 86%) and CoV (OR, 2.8 [95% CI, 2.0-4.1]; AFE, 65%) in older adults presenting with ARI, compared with those without respiratory symptoms (ie, asymptomatic individuals) or healthy older adults. However, there was no significant difference in the detection of BoV in cases and controls. This review supports RSV, Flu, PIV, HMPV, AdV, RV, and CoV as important causes of ARI in older adults and provides quantitative estimates of the absolute proportion of virus-associated ARI cases to which a viral cause can be attributed. Disease burden estimates should take into account the appropriate AFE estimates (for older adults) that we report.

Global Disease Burden Estimates of Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Acute Respiratory Infection in Older Adults in 2015: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Respiratory syncytial virus-associated acute respiratory infection (RSV-ARI) constitutes a substantial disease burden in older adults aged ≥65 years. We aimed to identify all studies worldwide investigating the disease burden of RSV-ARI in this population. We estimated the community incidence, hospitalization rate, and in-hospital case-fatality ratio (hCFR) of RSV-ARI in older adults, stratified by industrialized and developing regions, using data from a systematic review of studies published between January 1996 and April 2018 and 8 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these rate estimates to population estimates for 2015 to calculate the global and regional burdens in older adults with RSV-ARI in the community and in hospitals for that year. We estimated the number of in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ARI by combining hCFR data with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based studies. In 2015, there were about 1.5 million episodes (95% confidence interval [CI], .3 million-6.9 million) of RSV-ARI in older adults in industrialized countries (data for developing countries were missing), and of these, approximately 14.5% (214 000 episodes; 95% CI, 100 000-459 000) were admitted to hospitals. The global number of hospital admissions for RSV-ARI in older adults was estimated at 336 000 hospitalizations (uncertainty range [UR], 186 000-614 000). We further estimated about 14 000 in-hospital deaths (UR, 5000-50 000) related to RSV-ARI globally. The hospital admission rate and hCFR were higher for those aged ≥65 years than for those aged 50-64 years. The disease burden of RSV-ARI among older adults is substantial, with limited data from developing countries. Appropriate prevention and management strategies are needed to reduce this burden.

EULAR provisional recommendations for the management of rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases in the context of SARS-CoV-2

The provisional EULAR recommendations address several aspects of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus, and the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 and are meant for patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMD) and their caregivers. A task force of 20 members was convened by EULAR that met several times by videoconferencing in April 2020. The task force finally agreed on five overarching principles and 13 recommendations covering four generic themes: (1) General measures and prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection. (2) The management of RMD when local measures of social distancing are in effect. (3) The management of COVID-19 in the context of RMD. (4) The prevention of infections other than SARS-CoV-2. EULAR considers this set of recommendations as a 'living document' and a starting point, which will be updated as soon as promising new developments with potential impact on the care of patients with RMD become available.

Cost of Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Acute Lower Respiratory Infection Management in Young Children at the Regional and Global Level: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children aged &lt;5 years.

Methods

We aimed to identify the global inpatient and outpatient cost of management of RSV-ALRI in young children to assist health policy makers in making decisions related to resource allocation for interventions to reduce severe morbidity and mortality from RSV in this age group. We searched 3 electronic databases including Global Health, Medline, and EMBASE for studies reporting cost data on RSV management in children under 60 months from 2000 to 2017. Unpublished data on the management cost of RSV episodes were collected through collaboration with an international working group (RSV GEN) and claim databases.

Results

We identified 41 studies reporting data from year 1987 to 2017, mainly from Europe, North America, and Australia, covering the management of a total of 365 828 RSV disease episodes. The average cost per episode was €3452 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3265–3639) and €299 (95% CI, 295–303) for inpatient and outpatient management without follow-up, and it increased to €8591(95% CI, 8489–8692) and €2191 (95% CI, 2190–2192), respectively, with follow-up to 2 years after the initial event.

Conclusions

Known risk factors (early and late preterm birth, congenital heart disease, chronic lung disease, intensive care unit admission, and ventilator use) were associated with €4160 (95% CI, 3237–5082) increased cost of hospitalization. The global cost of inpatient and outpatient RSV ALRI management in young children in 2017 was estimated to be approximately €4.82 billion (95% CI, 3.47–7.93), 65% of these in developing countries and 55% of global costs accounted for by hospitalization. We have demonstrated that RSV imposed a substantial economic burden on health systems, governments, and the society.

Oseltamivir plus usual care versus usual care for influenza-like illness in primary care: an open-label, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Antivirals are infrequently prescribed in European primary care for influenza-like illness, mostly because of perceived ineffectiveness in real world primary care and because individuals who will especially benefit have not been identified in independent trials. We aimed to determine whether adding antiviral treatment to usual primary care for patients with influenza-like illness reduces time to recovery overall and in key subgroups.

METHODS

We did an open-label, pragmatic, adaptive, randomised controlled trial of adding oseltamivir to usual care in patients aged 1 year and older presenting with influenza-like illness in primary care. The primary endpoint was time to recovery, defined as return to usual activities, with fever, headache, and muscle ache minor or absent. The trial was designed and powered to assess oseltamivir benefit overall and in 36 prespecified subgroups defined by age, comorbidity, previous symptom duration, and symptom severity, using a Bayesian piece-wise exponential primary analysis model. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, number ISRCTN 27908921.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 15, 2016, and April 12, 2018, we recruited 3266 participants in 15 European countries during three seasonal influenza seasons, allocated 1629 to usual care plus oseltamivir and 1637 to usual care, and ascertained the primary outcome in 1533 (94%) and 1526 (93%). 1590 (52%) of 3059 participants had PCR-confirmed influenza infection. Time to recovery was shorter in participants randomly assigned to oseltamivir (hazard ratio 1·29, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCrI] 1·20-1·39) overall and in 30 of the 36 prespecified subgroups, with estimated hazard ratios ranging from 1·13 to 1·72. The estimated absolute mean benefit from oseltamivir was 1·02 days (95% [BCrI] 0·74-1·31) overall, and in the prespecified subgroups, ranged from 0·70 (95% BCrI 0·30-1·20) in patients younger than 12 years, with less severe symptoms, no comorbidities, and shorter previous illness duration to 3·20 (95% BCrI 1·00-5·50) in patients aged 65 years or older who had more severe illness, comorbidities, and longer previous illness duration. Regarding harms, an increased burden of vomiting or nausea was observed in the oseltamivir group.

INTERPRETATION

Primary care patients with influenza-like illness treated with oseltamivir recovered one day sooner on average than those managed by usual care alone. Older, sicker patients with comorbidities and longer previous symptom duration recovered 2-3 days sooner.

FUNDING

European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme.

Reduced Nasal Viral Load and IFN Responses in Infants with Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis and Respiratory Failure

RATIONALE

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in infancy. Severe disease is believed to result from uncontrolled viral replication, an excessive immune response, or both.

OBJECTIVES

To determine RSV load and immune mediator levels in nasal mucosal lining fluid by serial sampling of nasal fluids from cases of moderate and severe bronchiolitis over the course of infection.

METHODS

Infants with viral bronchiolitis necessitating admission (n = 55) were recruited from a pediatric center during 2016 and 2017. Of these, 30 were RSV infected (18 "moderate" and 12 mechanically ventilated "severe"). Nasal fluids were sampled frequently over time using nasosorption devices and nasopharyngeal aspiration. Hierarchical clustering of time-weighted averages was performed to investigate cytokine and chemokine levels, and gene expression profiling was conducted.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Unexpectedly, cases with severe RSV bronchiolitis had lower nasal viral loads and reduced IFN-γ and C-C chemokine ligand 5/RANTES (regulated upon activation, normal T cell expressed and secreted) levels than those with moderate disease, especially when allowance was made for disease duration (all P < 0.05). Reduced cytokine/chemokine levels in severe disease were also seen in children with other viral infections. Gene expression analysis of nasopharyngeal aspiration samples (n = 43) confirmed reduced type-I IFN gene expression in severe bronchiolitis accompanied by enhanced expression of MUC5AC and IL17A.

CONCLUSIONS

Infants with severe RSV bronchiolitis have lower nasal viral load, CXCL10 (C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10)/IP-10, and type-I IFN levels than moderately ill children, but enhanced MUC5AC (mucin-5AC) and IL17A gene expression in nasal cells.

A41 Deep sequencing of respiratory syncytial virus links viral diversity to disease severity

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common virus that can cause bronchiolitis in infants and pneumonia in immunocompromised and elderly people. RSV belongs to the Pneumoviridae family and consists of a genome of 15 kb. Its genome contains ten genes that code for eleven proteins, with M2 coding for two different proteins in overlapping open reading frames. It is unclear why some infected children have severe disease and others have mild or asymptomatic disease. In this project, methods for complete genome sequencing of RSV via Sanger and Illumina MiSeq platforms were optimized. One hundred and twenty-four community samples (59 RSV A and 65 RSV B) from 2014 to 2018 were collected (in collaboration with the Royal College of General Practitioners) and sequenced. Samples were selected based on viral load (e.g. Ct values had to be < 30). The genotype of each sample was determined by constructing phylogenetic trees with reference sequences from all genotypes. Trees were reconstructed using the maximum likelihood method. Furthermore, Illumina sequencing was used to deep sequence seven community samples and four hospital samples that were spatiotemporally matched (obtained via Imperial College NHS Trust hospitals). Variants were studied to investigate if certain variants influence disease severity (e.g. cause mild (community samples) or severe infection (hospital samples)). Analysis so far showed that ON1 (with a seventy-two nucleotide duplication in attachment protein G) is the most common genotype in both community and hospitalized samples (90% and 75% of samples, respectively), with GA2 (without duplication) as the next most common genotype for RSV A subtypes (7% and 25%). Three per cent of community samples were of the GA5 genotype. Samples from the RSV B subgroup all belong to the BA genotypes with a 60-nucleotide duplication in G. Samples that were selected for Illumina sequencing had a Ct value between 19.0 and 29.1, while hospital samples had a Ct value of 18.3 to 29.1. Viral load, therefore, did not explain disease severity in these selected samples. The Shannon entropy from Illumina sequenced samples averaged at 22.78 in community samples (ranges from 15 to 28) and 38.78 in hospitalized samples (ranges from 31 to 57). This indicated that diversity of the virus pool might influence disease severity; however, more samples need to be analyzed. There are no specific variants that could explain disease severity. Diversity of the virus pool could explain the link between higher viral loads and disease severity, which is sometimes found but cannot always be confirmed. Higher viral loads can harbor more diverse viral particles compared to lower viral loads. Future work will focus on more in-depth variation and diversity analysis and on evolutionary analysis of both community and hospital samples. We will also investigate intra-host evolution of RSV in acute infections using consecutive samples and its possible implications on the host response.

Global and Regional Burden of Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Pneumonia constitutes a substantial disease burden among adults overall and those who are elderly. We aimed to identify all studies investigating the disease burden among older adults (age, ≥65 years) admitted to the hospital with pneumonia. We estimated the hospital admission rate and in-hospital case-fatality ratio (CFR) of pneumonia in older adults, stratified by age and economic status (industrialized vs developing), with data from a systematic review of studies published from 1996 through 2017 and from 8 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these rate estimates to population estimates for 2015 to calculate the global and regional burden in older adults who would have been admitted to the hospital with pneumonia that year. We estimated the number of in-hospital pneumonia deaths by combining in-hospital CFRs with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based studies. We identified 109 eligible studies; 73 used clinical pneumonia as the case definition, and 36 used radiologically confirmed pneumonia as the case definition. We estimated that, in 2015, 6.8 million episodes (uncertainty range [UR], 5.8–8.0 episodes) of clinical pneumonia resulted in hospital admissions of older adults worldwide. The hospital admission rate increased with advancing age and was higher in men. The total disease burden was likely underestimated when using the definition of radiologically confirmed pneumonia. Based on data from 52 hospital studies reporting data on pneumonia mortality, we estimated that about 1.1 million in-hospital deaths (UR, 0.9–1.4 in-hospital deaths) occurred among older adults. The burden of pneumonia requiring hospitalization among older adults is substantial. Appropriate prevention and management strategies should be developed to reduce its impact.

Influenza burden, prevention, and treatment in asthma-A scoping review by the EAACI Influenza in asthma task force

To address uncertainties in the prevention and management of influenza in people with asthma, we performed a scoping review of the published literature on influenza burden; current vaccine recommendations; vaccination coverage; immunogenicity, efficacy, effectiveness, and safety of influenza vaccines; and the benefits of antiviral drugs in people with asthma. We found significant variation in the reported rates of influenza detection in individuals with acute asthma exacerbations making it unclear to what degree influenza causes exacerbations of underlying asthma. The strongest evidence of an association was seen in studies of children. Countries in the European Union currently recommend influenza vaccination of adults with asthma; however, coverage varied between regions. Coverage was lower among children with asthma. Limited data suggest that good seroprotection and seroconversion can be achieved in both children and adults with asthma and that vaccination confers a degree of protection against influenza illness and asthma-related morbidity to children with asthma. There were insufficient data to determine efficacy in adults. Overall, influenza vaccines appeared to be safe for people with asthma. We identify knowledge gaps and make recommendations on future research needs in relation to influenza in patients with asthma.

Influenza burden, prevention, and treatment in asthma-A scoping review by the EAACI Influenza in asthma task force

To address uncertainties in the prevention and management of influenza in people with asthma, we performed a scoping review of the published literature on influenza burden; current vaccine recommendations; vaccination coverage; immunogenicity, efficacy, effectiveness, and safety of influenza vaccines; and the benefits of antiviral drugs in people with asthma. We found significant variation in the reported rates of influenza detection in individuals with acute asthma exacerbations making it unclear to what degree influenza causes exacerbations of underlying asthma. The strongest evidence of an association was seen in studies of children. Countries in the European Union currently recommend influenza vaccination of adults with asthma; however, coverage varied between regions. Coverage was lower among children with asthma. Limited data suggest that good seroprotection and seroconversion can be achieved in both children and adults with asthma and that vaccination confers a degree of protection against influenza illness and asthma-related morbidity to children with asthma. There were insufficient data to determine efficacy in adults. Overall, influenza vaccines appeared to be safe for people with asthma. We identify knowledge gaps and make recommendations on future research needs in relation to influenza in patients with asthma.

Predominance of heterosubtypic IFN-γ-only-secreting effector memory T cells in pandemic H1N1 naive adults

The 2009/10 pandemic (pH1N1) highlighted the need for vaccines conferring heterosubtypic immunity against antigenically shifted influenza strains. Although cross-reactive T cells are strong candidates for mediating heterosubtypic immunity, little is known about the population-level prevalence, frequency, and cytokine-secretion profile of heterosubtypic T cells to pH1N1. To assess this, pH1N1 sero-negative adults were recruited. Single-cell IFN-γ and IL-2 cytokine-secretion profiles to internal proteins of pH1N1 or live virus were enumerated and characterised. Heterosubtypic T cells recognising pH1N1 core proteins were widely prevalent, being detected in 90% (30 of 33) of pH1N1-naïve individuals. Although the last exposure to influenza was greater than 6 months ago, the frequency and proportion of the IFN-γ-only-secreting T-cell subset was significantly higher than the IL-2-only-secreting subset. CD8(+) IFN-γ-only-secreting heterosubtypic T cells were predominantly CCR7(-) CD45RA(-) effector-memory phenotype, expressing the tissue-homing receptor CXCR3 and degranulation marker CD107. Receipt of the 2008-09 influenza vaccine did not alter the frequency of these heterosubtypic T cells, highlighting the inability of current vaccines to maintain this heterosubtypic T-cell pool. The surprisingly high prevalence of pre-existing circulating pH1N1-specific CD8(+) IFN-γ-only-secreting effector memory T cells with cytotoxic and lung-homing potential in pH1N1-seronegative adults may partly explain the low case fatality rate despite high rates of infection of the pandemic in young adults.

Hot topics in the prevention of respiratory syncytial virus disease

The 7th International Respiratory Syncytial Virus Symposium took place in Hotel Blijdorp, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. The series has been running since 1996; this meeting took place after a 3-year gap, and was attended by approximately 200 clinicians, scientists and industry representatives from all over the world. The conference covered all aspects of respiratory syncytial virus disease, including virology, cell biology, pathogenesis, clinical presentation, diagnosis, immunology, vaccines, antivirals and other therapeutic approaches. Reviews by invited keynote speakers were accompanied by oral and poster presentations, with ample opportunity for discussion of unpublished work. This article summarizes a small selection of hot topics from the meeting, focused on pathogenesis, therapeutics and vaccine development.

Regulation of immunity during viral lung infection (168.1)

Regulatory T cells (Tregs) play a clear role in chronic infections and inflammatory disorders, but their role in acute infections have not been fully elucidated. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the major cause of serious lower respiratory tract infection in infants, resulting in over-exuberant immune responses. In order to examine the role of Tregs in primary RSV primary infection, we infected “Depletion of regulatory T cells” (DEREG) mice which express the diphteria toxin (DT) receptor enhanced GFP fusion protein under the control of FOXP3 gene locus. Injections of DT ablated Tregs, and depletion prior to RSV primary infection caused increased weight loss and increased influx of cells into the lung and the airways (bronchioalveolar lavage, BAL) with lung and BAL showing elevated numbers of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells on d4, d8 and d14 post RSV infection. Interestingly, Treg depletion also caused an increase in neutrophils and eosinophils in the airways. Therefore, Tregs do not only control the magnitude of the T cell response, but also the quality of the responses that follow. The effects of RSV infection in mice with defective immune regulation closely parallels the observed effects of RSV in children with bronchiolitis, suggesting that the pathogenesis of bronchiolitis may involve an inability to regulate virus-induced inflammation

Antiviral and lung protective activity of a novel respiratory syncytial virus fusion inhibitor in a mouse model

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes bronchiolitis in young children and common colds in adults. There is no licensed vaccine, and prophylactic treatment with palivizumab is very expensive and limited to high-risk infants. Ribavirin is used as an antiviral treatment in infants and immunosuppressed patients, and its use is limited due to side-effects, toxicity to the recipient and staff, and evidence of marginal clinical efficacy. Therefore, we studied the in vivo kinetics, and the antiviral and protective properties of a novel candidate for RSV disease treatment. The drug is a small molecule (TMC353121) discovered by screening for fusion inhibitory properties against RSV in a cellular infection model. The pharmacokinetics of TMC353121 was studied in BALB/c mice and antiviral effects determined by testing viral loads in lung tissue by quantitative RT-PCR and plaque assay after intranasal RSV infection. At doses of 0.25-10 mg · kg(-1), TMC353121 significantly reduced viral load, bronchoalveolar lavage cell accumulation and the severity of lung histopathological change after infection. Treatment remained effective if started within 48 h of infection, but was ineffective thereafter. Therefore, TMC353121 is a novel potent antiviral drug, in vivo reducing RSV replication and inhibiting consequential lung inflammation, with a great potential for further clinical development.

Emerging drugs for respiratory syncytial virus infection

Although respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was discovered > 40 years ago, treatment remains largely supportive. There are no safe and effective vaccines or specific treatments other than prophylaxis with passive antibody therapy (palivizumab). However, there are good reasons to think that the scene may soon change. As the pace of development of anti-viral drugs accelerates and optimism over vaccines increases, novel therapies are set to make a major impact in the management of this very common infection. The use and effect of such interventions are not easy to anticipate, but could ultimately include the interruption of RSV's transmission resulting in profound changes to the impact of RSV on human health.

Immune tolerance to hepatitis C virus acquired during engraftment of bone marrow transplant

The CD4+ T-cell response appears to be important for clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the majority of individuals. We have recently described a series of human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-DR11-restricted T-cell epitopes derived from HCV proteins which enables distinct populations of memory CD4+ T cells to be detected and counted in all nonviraemic HCV subjects. We examined the case of an HLA-DR11+ recipient of a haematopoietic stem-cell transplant who was concurrently infected with HCV from an HLA-DR11+ donor sibling. An acute HCV hepatitis developed and was treated with type I interferon. After successful viral clearance, the recipient demonstrated a selective lack of HCV epitope-specific CD4+ T cells and absence of serological responses compared with the treated donor. The recipient had no evidence of any nonspecific immunosuppression. The subsequent effects of concurrent infection during immune reconstitution are not known in adult humans, but data from murine models suggest this can lead to a skewing of the T-cell repertoire because of thymic selection. From the above observations, it is plausible that the introduction of foreign viral antigen into the thymus may lead to subsequent acquired central tolerance.

Safety and efficacy of immune-stimulating complex-based antigen delivery systems for neonatal immunisation against respiratory syncytial virus infection

To protect against human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV)-induced bronchiolitis in early infancy, vaccines need to be designed which are effective in the neonatal period. To test the safety and efficacy of adjuvants in neonatal mice, we injected hRSV surface proteins combined with immune-stimulating complexes (ISCOMs) prepared from fractions A, C or A + C of Quillaja saponins. All were well tolerated in adults, but A + C ISCOMS proved lethal in neonates; A or C fractions alone were well tolerated by neonates up to the adult dose. hRSV-ISCOM A induced antibody responses similar to combined fractions, and potent in vitro cytotoxic T cell responses. Adult-like in vitro cytotoxicity against hRSV-infected targets and precursor cytotoxic T cell frequencies were observed within one week of neonatal priming and hRSV-ISCOM A-primed neonates showed virtually complete protection against subsequent viral challenge. hRSV challenge was associated with some pulmonary eosinophilia in both age groups, with higher IL-4 production by lung CD4+ T cells in mice primed as neonates. This was, however, accompanied by only minor (approximately 10%) and transient illness and weight loss. Thus, the identification of hRSV antigen delivery systems with an age-appropriate adjuvanticity/reactogenicity balance may be feasible even in the vulnerable early-life period.

An improved protocol for measuring cytotoxic T cell activity in anatomic compartments with low cell numbers

The study of target cell lysis and cytokine production are valuable tools to characterize antigen-specific T and NK cell function during virus infections. After localized infections in compartments such as the lung or the brain, however, cell numbers isolated from these organs are too low to perform standard assays with individual mice. Here, we report a few simple modifications of the classical 51Cr release assay allowing reduction of the number of required effector cells by a factor of 10 without loosing sensitivity or specificity. Using not more than 4x10(5) effector cells, we were able to study ex vivo virus-specific CTL or NK activity from the lungs of individual mice after infection with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and from the brains of mice infected with Borna disease virus (BDV). Flow cytometric analysis of interferon-gamma production by virus-specific T cells including appropriate controls was achieved with as few as 10(5) effector cells.

Long-term persistence and reactivation of T cell memory in the lung of mice infected with respiratory syncytial virus

In mice acutely infected with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), more than 20% of pulmonary CD8(+) T cells, but only 2-3% of CD8(+) T cells in the draining lymph node secreted interferon-gamma in response to a single peptide. Surprisingly, the percentage of virus-specific T cells in the lung remained at these high levels long after the acute infection. Pulmonary memory T cells were further studied in a sensitive adoptive transfer system, which allows visualizing polyclonal CD4(+) and CD8(+) virus-specific memory T cell responses. Fifty days after infection, persisting RSV-specific pulmonary T cells remained CD69(hi) CD62L(lo), but had returned to a resting memory state according to functional criteria. In the absence of neutralizing antibodies reinfection first induced cell division among virus-specific memory T cells 3 days after infection predominantly in the local lymph node. However, divided cells then rapidly accumulated in the lung without significantly increasing in the lymph node. These results suggest rapid export of reactivated cells from the lymph node to the target organ. Thus, although memory T cells can be maintained in the infected organ after a localized virus infection, amplification of a recall response appears to be most effective in organized lymphoid tissue.

Characterization of novel HLA-DR11-restricted HCV epitopes reveals both qualitative and quantitative differences in HCV-specific CD4+ T cell responses in chronically infected and non-viremic patients

The CD4+ T cell response is of critical importance in determining the fate of many viral infections. Clearance of HCV has a strong association with the MHC class II antigen HLA-DR11 suggesting a key role for CD4+ T cells. We used an epitope-prediction program to identify multiple novel HLA-DR11-restricted epitopes derived from several HCV proteins. These epitopes then allowed us to explore the qualitative and quantitative aspects of specific CD4+ T cell responses in HLA-DR11+ patients. Irrespective of the time since viral clearance, all the non-viremic patients recognized four epitopes with a high frequency of IFN-gamma-producing memory CD4+ T cells. There appeared to be two subpopulations of memory cells, immediate "effector" memory cells (Th1 phenotype) and resting "central" memory cells (Th1/0). Chronically infected patients revealed an almost complete absence of HCV epitope-specific IFN-gamma-producing T cells. However, three of these epitopes induced IL-10 production (down-regulatory) raising the question as to whether these cells play a role in viral persistence. The frequency and phenotype of memory cells is likely to reflect the magnitude of the initial immune response, and suggests that a high frequency of IFN-gamma-secreting CD4+ T cells to multiple epitopes are important in clearance of HCV.

Characterization of novel HLA-DR11-restricted HCV epitopes reveals both qualitative and quantitative differences in HCV-specific CD4+ T cell responses in chronically infected and non-viremic patients

The CD4+ T cell response is of critical importance in determining the fate of many viral infections. Clearance of HCV has a strong association with the MHC class II antigen HLA-DR11 suggesting a key role for CD4+ T cells. We used an epitope-prediction program to identify multiple novel HLA-DR11-restricted epitopes derived from several HCV proteins. These epitopes then allowed us to explore the qualitative and quantitative aspects of specific CD4+ T cell responses in HLA-DR11+ patients. Irrespective of the time since viral clearance, all the non-viremic patients recognized four epitopes with a high frequency of IFN-gamma-producing memory CD4+ T cells. There appeared to be two subpopulations of memory cells, immediate "effector" memory cells (Th1 phenotype) and resting "central" memory cells (Th1/0). Chronically infected patients revealed an almost complete absence of HCV epitope-specific IFN-gamma-producing T cells. However, three of these epitopes induced IL-10 production (down-regulatory) raising the question as to whether these cells play a role in viral persistence. The frequency and phenotype of memory cells is likely to reflect the magnitude of the initial immune response, and suggests that a high frequency of IFN-gamma-secreting CD4+ T cells to multiple epitopes are important in clearance of HCV.

Mucosal delivery of a respiratory syncytial virus CTL peptide with enterotoxin-based adjuvants elicits protective, immunopathogenic, and immunoregulatory antiviral CD8+ T cell responses

In an effort to develop a safe and effective vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), we used Escherichia coli heat-labile toxin (LT), and LTK63 (an LT mutant devoid of ADP-ribosyltransferase activity) to elicit murine CD8(+) CTL responses to an intranasally codelivered CTL peptide from the second matrix protein (M2) of RSV. M2(82-90)-specific CD8(+) T cells were detected by IFN-gamma enzyme-linked immunospot and (51)Cr release assay in local and systemic lymph nodes, and their induction was dependent on the use of a mucosal adjuvant. CTL elicited by peptide immunization afforded protection against RSV challenge, but also enhanced weight loss. CTL-mediated viral clearance was not dependent on IFN-gamma since depletion using specific mAb during RSV challenge did not affect cellular recruitment or viral clearance. Depletion of IFN-gamma did, however, reduce the concentration of TNF detected in lung homogenates of challenged mice and largely prevented the weight loss associated with CTL-mediated viral clearance. Mice primed with the attachment glycoprotein (G) develop lung eosinophilia after intranasal RSV challenge. Mucosal peptide vaccination reduced pulmonary eosinophilia in mice subsequently immunized with G and challenged with RSV. These studies emphasize that protective and immunoregulatory CD8(+) CTL responses can be mucosally elicited using enterotoxin-based mucosal adjuvants but that resistance against viral infection may be accompanied by enhanced disease.