Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke

Modeling the future of tobacco control: Using SimSmoke to explore the feasibility of the tobacco endgame in Korea

INTRODUCTION

We used a simulation model to assess the feasibility of reaching the tobacco endgame target (reducing the smoking prevalence to below 5% by 2050) and explored potential implementation strategies.

METHODS

The impact of strengthened tobacco-control policies on smoking prevalence was analyzed using Korea SimSmoke, a discrete-time Markov process. We considered the effects of various scenarios from 2023 and predictions were conducted until 2050. To confirm the stability of the results, deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out by increasing and decreasing parameter estimates.

RESULTS

The implementation of tobacco-control policies in accordance with the WHO MPOWER (Μonitor tobacco use and prevention policies; Protect people from tobacco smoke; Offer help to quit tobacco smoking; Warn of the dangers of tobacco; Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship; Raise taxes on tobacco) measures were insufficient to achieve the tobacco endgame objective of 5% by 2050. The overall predicted smoking prevalence in 2050 is 4.7% if all policies are fully implemented in accordance with the FCTC guidelines together with a complete ban on the sale of cigarettes to people born after 2003 and annual 10% increases in price. Sensitivity analyses using the varying policy effect assumptions demonstrated the robustness of the simulation results.

CONCLUSIONS

For a substantive reduction in smoking prevalence, it is essential to strongly implement the MPOWER strategy. Beyond this foundational step, the eradication of smoking requires a paradigm shift in the perception of conventional tobacco-control policies, including a tobacco-free generation strategy and radical increases in the price of tobacco products.

Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework

BACKGROUND

Policy simulation models (PSMs) have been used extensively to shape health policies before real-world implementation and evaluate post-implementation impact. This systematic review aimed to examine best practices, identify common pitfalls in tobacco control PSMs and propose a modelling quality assessment framework.

METHODS

We searched five databases to identify eligible publications from July 2013 to August 2019. We additionally included papers from Feirman et al for studies before July 2013. Tobacco control PSMs that project tobacco use and tobacco-related outcomes from smoking policies were included. We extracted model inputs, structure and outputs data for models used in two or more included papers. Using our proposed quality assessment framework, we scored these models on population representativeness, policy effectiveness evidence, simulated smoking histories, included smoking-related diseases, exposure-outcome lag time, transparency, sensitivity analysis, validation and equity.

FINDINGS

We found 146 eligible papers and 25 distinct models. Most models used population data from public or administrative registries, and all performed sensitivity analysis. However, smoking behaviour was commonly modelled into crude categories of smoking status. Eight models only presented overall changes in mortality rather than explicitly considering smoking-related diseases. Only four models reported impacts on health inequalities, and none offered the source code. Overall, the higher scored models achieved higher citation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

While fragments of good practices were widespread across the reviewed PSMs, only a few included a 'critical mass' of the good practices specified in our quality assessment framework. This framework might, therefore, potentially serve as a benchmark and support sharing of good modelling practices.

Trends in the incidence of head and neck cancer: A nationwide population-based study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to demonstrate the temporal trend in incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in Taiwan.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with a HNC were retrieved from the Taiwan's Health Insurance Database. We identified 16,894 patients aged ≥20 years who had received a first-time diagnosis of cancer of the oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx, hypopharynx, nasopharynx, sinonasal, salivary gland or thyroid gland between 2010 and 2018. We calculated the annual incidence rate per 100,000 population, overall, and classified by gender and cancer type. We also used the annual percent change (APC) to characterize trends in head and neck cancer rates over time.

RESULTS

The incidence rate showed a gradual decline during this period from 2010 to 2018 with an APC of -2.81% (p < 0.001). Within gender groups, the decline was not statistically significant among females (APC = -1.69, 95% CI = -3.58 ∼ 0.23, p = 0.080). Within cancer types, strikingly high magnitude and statistically significant declines were observed in respect of cancer of the nasopharynx (APC = -7.89%, 95% CI = -9.43%∼-6.31%, p < 0.001), sinonasal cancer (APC = -10.08%, 95% CI = -16.66%∼-2.99%, p = 0.012) and oropharyneal cancer (APC = -9.47%, 95% CI = -15.15%∼-3.42%, p = 0.013) over the study period. In contrast, there was a statistically significant increase in incidence on thyroid cancer over the study period with an APC of 4.75% (95% CI = -2.81%∼6.75%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

HNCs in Taiwan are showing a decreasing trend, led by the upper respiratory and oropharyngeal cancers. However, there was a concurrent increasing trend of the incidence on thyroid cancer. These trends may be attributable to changing lifestyles and behavioral choices in Taiwan.

"Sugar-Sweetened Beverages" Is an Independent Risk From Pancreatic Cancer: Based on Half a Million Asian Cohort Followed for 25 Years

Although the link between sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and pancreatic cancer has been suggested for its insulin-stimulating connection, most epidemiological studies showed inconclusive relationship. Whether the result was limited by sample size is explored. This prospective study followed 491,929 adults, consisting of 235,427 men and 256,502 women (mean age: 39.9, standard deviation: 13.2), from a health surveillance program and there were 523 pancreatic cancer deaths between 1994 and 2017. The individual identification numbers of the cohort were matched with the National Death file for mortality, and Cox models were used to assess the risk. The amount of SSB intake was recorded based on the average consumption in the month before interview by a structured questionnaire. We classified the amount of SSB intake into 4 categories: 0–<0.5 serving/day, ≥0.5–<1 serving per day, ≥1–<2 servings per day, and ≥2 servings per day. One serving was defined as equivalent to 12 oz and contained 35 g added sugar. We used the age and the variables at cohort enrolment as the reported risks of pancreatic cancers. The cohort was divided into 3 age groups, 20–39, 40–59, and ≥60. We found young people (age <40) had higher prevalence and frequency of sugar-sweetened beverages than the elderly. Those consuming 2 servings/day had a 50% increase in pancreatic cancer mortality (HR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.08–2.24) for the total cohort, but a 3-fold increase (HR: 3.09, 95% CI: 1.44–6.62) for the young. The risk started at 1 serving every other day, with a dose–response relationship. The association of SSB intake of ≥2 servings/day with pancreatic cancer mortality among the total cohort remained significant after excluding those who smoke or have diabetes (HR: 2.12, 97% CI: 1.26–3.57), are obese (HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.08–2.30), have hypertension (HR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.20–3.00), or excluding who died within 3 years after enrollment (HR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.15–2.45). Risks remained in the sensitivity analyses, implying its independent nature. We concluded that frequent drinking of SSB increased pancreatic cancer in adults, with highest risk among young people.

Smoking Status and Functional Outcomes in Young Stroke

Objective: Stroke in young adults is uncommon, and the etiologies and risk factors of stroke in young adults differ from those in older populations. Smoker's paradox is an unexpected favorable outcome, and age difference is used to explain the association between smoking and the favorable functional outcome. This study aimed to investigate the existence of this phenomenon in young stroke patients. Methods: We analyzed a total of 9,087 young stroke cases registered in the nationwide stroke registry system of Taiwan between 2006 and 2016. Smoking criteria included having a current history of smoking more than one cigarette per day for more than 6 months. After matching for sex and age, a Cox model was used to compare mortality and function outcomes between smokers and non-smokers. Results: Compared with the non-smoker group, smoking was associated with older age, higher comorbidities, and higher alcohol consumption. Patients who report smoking with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores of 11-15 had a worse functional outcome (adjusted odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.76 - 0.87). Conclusion: Smokers had a higher risk of unfavorable functional outcomes at 3 months after stroke, and therefore, we continue to strongly advocate the importance of smoking cessation.

A roadmap of six different pathways to improve survival in laryngeal cancer patients

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Laryngeal cancer continues to require improvement in earlier stage diagnosis and better imaging delineation of disease, and hence 'more evidence-based' selection of treatment, as recent evidence suggests that related mortality, in the last decades, has not significantly decreased worldwide. Even though the reasons are not fully understood, there persists an urgency for a review and development of future strategies to embrace such clinical and diagnostic challenges from a political, societal, as well as scientific and clinical points of view.

RECENT FINDINGS

This review of the published literature suggests that survival improvement in laryngeal cancer may be achieved by fuelling and combining at least some or all of six targeted agendas: documentation of disease global incidence and national burden monitoring; development and implementation of high-quality cancer registries; education on risk factors and hazardous habits associated with laryngeal cancer for the general population; active modification of proven at-risk population lifestyles; centralization of treatment; and use of machine learning of gathered 'big data' and their integration into approaches for the optimization of prevention and treatments strategies.

SUMMARY

Laryngeal cancer should be tackled on several fronts, commencing with disease monitoring and prevention, up to treatment optimisation. Available modern resources offer the possibility to generate significant advances in laryngeal cancer management. However, each nation needs to develop a comprehensive approach, which is an essential prerequisite to obtain meaningful improvement on results.

Simulating future public health benefits of tobacco control interventions: a systematic review of models

BACKGROUND

To prioritise tobacco control interventions, simulating their health impacts is valuable. We undertook a systematic review of tobacco intervention simulation models to assess model structure and input variations that may render model outputs non-comparable.

METHODS

We applied a Medline search with keywords intersecting modelling and tobacco. Papers were limited to those modelling health outputs (eg, mortality, health-adjusted life years), and at least two of cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Data were extracted for each simulation model with ≥3 arising papers, including: model type, untimed or with time steps and trends in business-as-usual (BAU) tobacco prevalence and epidemiology.

RESULTS

Of 1911 papers, 186 met the inclusion criteria, including 13 eligible simulation models. The SimSmoke model had the largest number of publications (n=46), followed by Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes (n=12) and Tobacco Policy Model (n=10). Two of 13 models only estimated deaths averted, 1 had no time steps, 5 had no future trends in BAU tobacco prevalence, 9 had no future trends in BAU disease epidemiology and 7 had no time lags from quitting tobacco to reversal of health harm.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable heterogeneity exists in simulation models, making outputs substantively non-comparable between models. Ranking of interventions by one model may be valid. However, this may not be true if, for example, interventions that differentially affect age groups (eg, a tobacco-free generation policy vs increased cessation among adults) do not account for plausible future trends. Greater standardisation of model structures and outputs will allow comparison across models and countries, and for comparisons of the impact of tobacco control interventions with other preventive interventions.

Testing the Usability of Digital Educational Games for Encouraging Smoking Cessation

This study, using an observational design, assessed the effect of digital educational games on students' intention to quit smoking. Specifically, a series of digital games were developed to encourage smoking cessation and enhance students' engagement with the material. Three determinants of engagement were tested: perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, and perceived satisfaction. Usability assessments were performed using a structured questionnaire and usability-testing software (Morae). Most students reported that the games were easy to use (73.3-93.3%), useful (60.0-83.3%) and satisfactory (66.7-70.0%). After using the games, approximately half (46.7-53.3%) reported that they intended to quit smoking. After controlling for gender and age, multiple regression analysis revealed that only perceived usefulness statistically significantly contributed to intention to quit (β = 2.38, p < 0.05). 'Taiko Drumming' showed the highest number of mouse clicks (67.23), and the lowest time between inputs (7.88 s). It also received the most positive feedback (17 marks). These findings show that integrating learners' experiences into the development of learning material can improve learning effectiveness.

Are e-cigarettes reviving the popularity of conventional smoking among Taiwanese male adolescents? A time-trend population-based analysis for 2004-2017

INTRODUCTION

In Taiwan, national tobacco use surveys show that e-cigarette use has increased since 2014 among youth, while, at the same time, conventional cigarette smoking has continuously decreased. The purpose of this study is to examine whether the increased popularity of e-cigarettes has undermined this favourable declining trend for cigarette smoking.

METHODS

We examined conventional cigarette and e-cigarette prevalence among male high school students (aged 16-18 years) and adults from 2004 to 2017, using data from cross-sectional nationally representative surveys. Applying interrupted time series analysis, we assessed whether there was a change in trend in 2014, when e-cigarette use started to gain popularity from long-term trends in prior years (2004-2013).

RESULTS

E-cigarette use prevalence increased from 2.5% in 2014 to 6.4% in 2017 among male high school students but was negligible among male adults, declining from 1.4% in 2015 to 0.8% in 2017. The annual relative decline in the cigarette smoking rate after e-cigarettes started to gain popularity was greater (-10%) than the long-term trend (-2%) among high school students. Among adults, the change in trend over time after e-cigarettes started to gain popularity was not significant (ie, not significantly different from 0).

CONCLUSIONS

The increased popularity of e-cigarettes since 2014 is associated with a greater decline in youth smoking, compared with previous years. On the contrary, e-cigarette use has remained very low among Taiwanese male adults and no additional impact on the conventional smoking trend is found.

Epidemiology and Survival Outcomes of Lung Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Purpose

Lung cancer has been the top-ranking cause of cancer deaths in Taiwan for decades. Limited data were available in global cancer surveillance regarding lung cancer epidemiology in Taiwan, and previous reports are outdated.

Patients and Methods

This population-based cohort study extracted data of patients with lung cancer from the Taiwan National Health Insurance database and determined the lung cancer incidence and prevalence during 2002–2014. Histological subtypes were retrieved from the Taiwan Cancer Registry database; survival rates were gathered from the National Death Registry. Average annual percentage changes (APCs) of prevalence, incidence, and overall survival were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

Age-standardized incidence of lung cancer increased from 45.04 per 100,000 person-years in 2002 to 49.86 per 100,000 person-years in 2014, with an average APC of 0.7 (95% CI = 0.3–1.1; 0.2 in males, 2.0 in females). Lung cancer was more prevalent in male patients, but this increase gradually slowed down. Socioeconomic analysis showed that lung cancer has higher prevalence in patients with higher income level and urban residency. Adenocarcinoma was the most abundant histological subtype in Taiwan (adenocarcinoma-to-squamous cell carcinoma ratio = 4.16 in 2014), with a 2.4-fold increase of incident cases during 2002–2014 (from 43.47% to 64.89% of all lung cancer cases). The 5-year survival rate of lung cancer patients in 2010 was 17.34% (12.60% in male, 25.40% in female), with an average APC of 9.3 (6.3 in male, 11.8 in female) during 2002–2010.

Conclusion

Average APCs of prevalence and incidence of lung cancer were 3.1 and 0.7, respectively, during 2002–2014 in Taiwan. The number of female patients and number of patients with adenocarcinoma have increased the most, with incident cases doubling in these years. Facing this fatal malignancy, it is imperative to improve risk stratification, encourage early surveillance, and develop effective therapeutics for lung cancer patients in Taiwan.

Exploiting a low tax system: non-tax-induced cigarette price increases in Taiwan 2011-2016

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to analyse the non-tax-induced price increasing strategies adopted by tobacco industry in Taiwan, a high-income country with comprehensive tobacco control policies but low tobacco taxes and a declining cigarette market.

METHODS

Using governmental tax, price and inflation data, we analysed cigarette sales volume, affordability, affordability elasticity of demand, market share, pricing and net revenue of the top five tobacco companies in Taiwan from 2011 to 2016 when no tax increases occurred.

RESULTS

Total revenue after tax grew significantly for all the major transnational tobacco companies between 2011 and 2016 at the expense of the state-owned Taiwan Tobacco and Liquor Corporation. In terms of market share, Japan Tobacco (JT) was the leading company, despite experiencing a small decline, while British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands remained stable, and Philip Morris International increased from 4.7% to 7.0%. JT adopted the most effective pricing strategy by increasing the real price of its two most popular brands (Mevius and Mi-Ne) and, at the same time, doubling the sales of its cheaper and less popular brand Winston by leaving its nominal retail price unaltered.

CONCLUSIONS

Low and unchanged tobacco taxes enable tobacco companies to use aggressive pricing and segmentation strategies to increase the real price of cigarettes without making them less affordable while simultaneously maintaining customers' loyalty. It is crucial to continue monitoring the industry's pricing strategies and to regularly increase taxes to promote public health and to prevent tobacco industry from profiting at the expense of government revenues.

Electronic Cigarette Use and Smoking Initiation in Taiwan: Evidence from the First Prospective Study in Asia

A growing literature indicates that electronic cigarette use increases the risk of subsequent initiation of conventional smoking among cigarette-naïve adolescents in several Western countries. This research assesses the same relationship in an Asian country, Taiwan. The Taiwan Adolescent to Adult Longitudinal Study is a school-based survey that was carried out in two waves in 2014 (baseline) and in 2016 (follow-up). It employs probability sampling to create nationally representative samples of students in junior high school (mean age 13, 7th grade at baseline) and in senior high school (mean age 16, 10th grade at baseline). Data from this survey were analyzed via logistic regression to estimate the association between ever use of e-cigarettes at baseline and smoking initiation at follow-up, accounting for susceptibility to smoking, socio-demographic profile, depression status, and peer support. Among the 12,954 cigarette-naïve students surveyed, those with e-cigarette experience at baseline exhibited higher odds of smoking initiation at follow-up (Odds Ratio = 2.14, 95% CI (1.66, 2.75), p < 0.001). For the first time, we confirmed, through a longitudinal survey, a prospective association between ever use of e-cigarettes and smoking initiation in an Asian adolescent population. The restrictive policy on e-cigarettes currently in force in Taiwan is justified to prevent both e-cigarette and cigarette use among adolescents.