Hardening or softening? An observational study of changes to the prevalence of hardening indicators in Victoria, Australia, 2001-2016

Increase of unmotivated and hardened smokers in Hong Kong: a repeated cross-sectional trend analysis

OBJECTIVES

To examine the trends in the prevalence of hardening indicators and hardened smokers in Hong Kong, where the low smoking prevalence has plateaued in the recent decade.

METHODS

This is an analysis of repeated cross-sectional data from 9 territory-wide smoking cessation campaigns conducted annually from 2009 to 2018 (except 2011). Participants were 9837 biochemically verified daily cigarette smokers aged ≥18 years (18.5% female, mean age 43.2±14.2 years) recruited from the communities. Hardening indicators included heavy smoking (>15 CPD), high nicotine dependence (Heaviness of Smoking Index ≥5), no intention to quit within next 30 days and no past-year quit attempt. Perceived importance, confidence and difficulty of quitting were measured (each ranged 0-10). Multivariable regressions were used to model the changes in hardening indicators by calendar year, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

From 2009 to 2018, the prevalence of heavy smoking decreased from 57.6% to 39.4% (p<0.001), high nicotine dependence also decreased from 10.5% to 8.6% (p=0.06). However, the proportion of smokers with no intention to quit (12.7%-69.0%) and no past-year quit attempt (74.4%-80.4%) significantly increased (both p values <0.001). Hardened smokers (heavy smoking, no intention to quit, no past-year attempt quit attempt) significantly increased from 5.9% to 20.7% (p<0.001). Mean perceived importance (from 7.9±2.3 to 6.6±2.5) and confidence (from 6.2±2.6 to 5.3±2.4) of quitting also decreased significantly (all p values <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Daily cigarette smokers in Hong Kong were motivational hardening, but not dependence hardening. Effective tobacco control policies and interventions are warranted to motivate quitting to further reduce smoking prevalence.

The smoking population is not hardening in South Korea: a study using the Korea Community Health Survey from 2010 to 2018

INTRODUCTION

The hardening hypothesis proposes that the proportion of hardcore smokers increases when smoking prevalence declines. To evaluate whether such hardening occurs in South Korea, we examined the association between quitting behaviours, the number of cigarettes smoked per day and the proportion of hardcore smokers and smoking prevalence among local districts in South Korea.

METHODS

This study used the cross-sectional data from the Korea Community Health Survey (2010-2018) to examine local district-level associations between smoking prevalence and quit attempts, quit plans, quit ratios, cigarettes smoked per day and the proportion of hardcore smokers. Panel regression analysis was performed using the indicators of hardcore smoking (quit attempts, quit plans, quit ratios, cigarettes smoked per day and proportion of hardcore smokers) as the outcome variables, and prevalence of smoking, local districts, age and sex as predictor variables.

RESULTS

When the smoking prevalence of the districts decreased by 1%, quit attempts, quit plans and quit ratios increased by 0.24% (95% CI 0.11 to 0.37), 0.37% (95% CI 0.26 to 0.47) and 1.71% (95% CI 1.65 to 1.76), respectively. Cigarette consumption decreased by 0.17 cigarettes per day (95% 0.15 to 0.19), and the prevalence of hardcore smokers decreased by 0.88% (95% CI 0.78 to 0.98) when smoking prevalence decreased by 1%.

CONCLUSION

Hardening of smoking did not occur in South Korea when smoking prevalence declined, which suggests tobacco control policies in South Korea have been effective in reducing smoking prevalence without increasing the proportion of hardcore smokers.

Hardening determinants among adult daily smokers in nine African countries: Data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey

Little has been reported about hardening nor softening indicators in Africa where smoking prevalence is low. We aimed to examine the determinants of hardening in nine African countries. We conducted two separate analyses using data from the most recent Global Adult Tobacco Survey in Botswana, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda (total sample of 72,813 respondents): 1) multilevel logistic regression analysis to assess individual and country-level factors associated with hardcore, high dependence, and light smoking.; 2) a Spearman-rank correlation analysis to describe the association between daily smoking and hardcore, high dependence, and light smoking at an ecological level. Age-standardized daily smoking prevalence varied from 37.3% (95 %CI: 34.4, 40.3) (Egypt) to 6.1% (95 %CI: 3.5, 6.3) (Nigeria) among men; and 2.3% (95 %CI: 0.7, 3.9) (Botswana) to 0.3% (95 %CI: 0.2, 0.7) (Senegal) among women. The proportion of hardcore and high-dependence smokers was higher among men whereas for light smokers the proportion was higher among women. At the individual level, higher age and lower education groups had higher odds of being hardcore smokers and having high dependence. Smoke-free home policies showed decreased odds of both being hardcore and highly dependent smokers daily smoking correlated weakly and negatively with hardcore smoking (r = -0.243, 95 %CI: -0.781, 0.502) among men and negatively with high dependence (r = -0.546, 95 %CI: -0.888, 0.185) and positively with light smokers (r = 0.252, 95 %CI: -0.495, 0.785) among women. Hardening determinants varied between the countries in the African region. Wide sex differentials and social inequalities in heavy smoking do exist and should be tackled.

E-Cigarettes and the Multiple Responsibilities of the FDA

This paper considers the responsibilities of the FDA with regard to disseminating information about the benefits and harms of e-cigarettes. Tobacco harm reduction advocates claim that the FDA has been overcautious and has violated ethical obligations by failing to clearly communicate to the public that e-cigarettes are far less harmful than cigarettes. We argue, by contrast, that the FDA's obligations in this arena are more complex than they may appear at first blush. Though the FDA is accountable for informing the public about the health risks and benefits of products it regulates, it also has other roles (and attendant responsibilities) that inform when and how it should disseminate information. In addition to being a knowledge purveyor, it is also a knowledge producer, an advisor to the public, and a practical agent shaping the material conditions in which people make health-related choices. In our view, those other roles call for caution in the way the FDA interprets and communicates the available evidence.

Trends and correlates of hardcore smoking in India: findings from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys 1 & 2

Background: Data on the prevalence of hardcore smoking (HCS) among different socioeconomic status (SES) groups in low- and middle-income countries are limited. We looked at the prevalence and pattern of HCS in India with the following objectives: 1) to analyse the association between SES and HCS, 2) to find trends in HCS in different SES groups and 3) to find state-wide variations in hardcore smoking. Methods: Data of individuals aged ≥25 years from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) India 2009-10 (N= 9223) and 2016-17 (N= 7647) were used for this study. If an individual met all the following criteria: (1) current smoker, (2) smokes 10 or more cigarettes/day, (3) smokes first puff within 30 minutes after waking up, (4) no quit attempt in the last 12 months, and (5) no intention to quit at all or in the next 12 months, s/he was identified as a hardcore smoker. Multiple regression analysis was done to find the factors associated with HCS. Results: Prevalence of HCS decreased from 3% in GATS 1 to 2.1% in GATS 2: males from 5.6% to 3.9% and females from 0.3% to 0.2%. Compared to the richest group the poorest, poor and those who belonged to the middle-income group were more likely to report HCS in GATS 1 and 2. However, only in the poorest SES group, there was an increase in the proportion of hardcore smokers in GATS 2 compared to GATS 1. Other factors that were significantly associated with HCS in both surveys were male gender, working adults, those with lower education,  and households without any rules for smoking inside the home. Conclusions: Tobacco control and cessation efforts need to focus on individuals of poor SES groups, particularly in the high prevalence Indian states.

Trends and correlates of hardcore smoking in India: findings from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys 1 & 2

Background: Data on the prevalence of hardcore smoking (HCS) among different socioeconomic status (SES) groups in low- and middle-income countries are limited. We looked at the prevalence and pattern of HCS in India with the following objectives: 1) to analyse the association between SES and HCS, 2) to find trends in HCS in different SES groups and 3) to find state-wide variations in hardcore smoking. Methods: Data of individuals aged ≥25 years from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) India 2009-10 (N= 9223) and 2016-17 (N= 7647) were used for this study. If an individual met all the following criteria: (1) current smoker, (2) smokes 10 or more cigarettes/day, (3) smokes first puff within 30 minutes after waking up, (4) no quit attempt in the last 12 months, and (5) no intention to quit at all or in the next 12 months, s/he was identified as a hardcore smoker. Multiple regression analysis was done to find the factors associated with HCS. Results: Prevalence of HCS decreased from 3% in GATS 1 to 2.1% in GATS 2: males from 5.6% to 3.9% and females from 0.3% to 0.2%. Compared to the richest group the poorest, poor and those who belonged to the middle-income group were more likely to report HCS in GATS 1 and 2. However, only in the poorest SES group, there was an increase in the proportion of hardcore smokers in GATS 2 compared to GATS 1. Other factors that were significantly associated with HCS in both surveys were male gender, working adults, those with lower education,  and households without any rules for smoking inside the home. Conclusions: Tobacco control and cessation efforts need to focus on individuals of poor SES groups, particularly in the high prevalence Indian states.

Trends and correlates of hardcore smoking in India: findings from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys 1 & 2

Background: Data on prevalence of hardcore smoking (HCS) among different socioeconomic status (SES) groups in low- and middle-income countries are limited. We looked at the prevalence and pattern of HCS in India with the following objectives: 1) to analyse the association between SES and HCS, 2) to find trends in HCS in different SES groups and 3) to find state-wide variations in hardcore smoking. Methods: Data of individuals aged ≥25 years from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) India 2009-10 (N= 9223) and 2016-17 (N= 7647) were used for this study. If an individual met all the following criteria: (1) current smoker, (2) smokes 10 or more cigarettes/day, (3) smokes first puff within 30 minutes after waking up, (4) no quit attempt in last 12 months, (5) no intention to quit at all or in the next 12 months, (6) lack of knowledge of harmful effect of smoking, s/he was identified as a hardcore smoker. Multiple regression analysis was done to find the factors associated with HCS. Results: Prevalence of HCS deceased from 2.5% in GATS 1 to 1.9% in GATS 2: males from 6.2% to 3.9% and females from 0.3% to 0.2%. Compared to the richest group the poorest, poor and those who belonged to the middle-income group were more likely to report HCS in GATS 1 and 2. However, only in the poorest SES group there was an increase in the proportion of hardcore smokers in GATS 2 compared to GATS 1. Other factors that were significantly associated with HCS in both surveys were male gender, working adults, those with lower education, early initiation of smoking and households without any rules for smoking inside the home. Conclusions: Tobacco control and cessation efforts need to focus on individuals of poor SES groups particularly in the high prevalence Indian states.

A population-level analysis of changes in Australian smokers' preferences for smoking cessation support over two decades - from 1998 to 2017

Background

Encouraging and assisting smokers to quit remains a key public health goal. Government and commercial initiatives have nudged smokers towards supported cessation. We tracked long-term trends in Australian smokers’ quit attempt methods across 20 years.

Methods

Data from 11,917 smokers were collected from an annual, cross-sectional, face-to-face, random and representative population survey. The survey measured demographic characteristics, tobacco use, recent quit attempts, nicotine dependence, quit intentions, and recent methods used when attempting to quit. Quit attempt preferences were analysed over time and by smoker characteristics.

Findings

Each year, more smokers attempted to quit than remained quit, with a stable trend over time. Socioeconomic disadvantage and mental health conditions are more likely among smokers, but there was no difference in quit attempts by these characteristics. Quit attempts have risen among those aged 60 years and over whereas other age groups have remained stable. Although trending downwards, unassisted quitting remained the most common method: 1998: 61% and 2017: 40%. Asking a doctor for help/advice (34%) was the most common assisted method in 2017, increasing from 18% in 1998. Methods of quitting varied by smoker characteristics, with supported methods used more often by older, more dependent, socio-economically disadvantaged smokers and those with a mental health condition.

Interpretation

The relative stability of recent quit attempts, persistence in unassisted quitting, and fluctuating preferences for supported cessation methods indicate that it is important for clinicians and policy makers to continue to support quit attempts through a variety of options, tailored to smoker's needs.

Changes in adult smoking behaviours in ten global adult tobacco survey (GATS) countries during 2008-2018 - a test of 'hardening' hypothesis'

BACKGROUND

Hardcore smoking behaviours and test of hardening are seldom reported from low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). We report country-wise changes in smoking behaviors between two sequential surveys and explored ecologically the relationship between MPOWER scores and smoking behaviors including hardcore smoking.

METHODS

We analysed sequential Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) data done at least at five years interval in 10 countries namely India, Bangladesh, China, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Uruguay, and Vietnam. We estimated weighted prevalence rates of smoking behaviors namely current smoking (both daily and non-daily), prevalence of hardcore smoking (HCS) among current smokers (HCSs%) and entire surveyed population (HCSp%), quit ratios (QR), and the number of cigarettes smoked per day (CPD). We calculated absolute and relative (%) change in rates between two surveys in each country. Using aggregate data, we correlated relative change in current smoking prevalence with relative change in HCSs% and HCSp% as well as explored the relationship of MPOWER score with relative change in smoking behaviors using Spearman' rank correlation test.

RESULTS

Overall daily smoking has declined in all ten countries lead by a 23% decline in Russia. In India, Bangladesh, and Philippines HCSs% decreased as the smoking rate decreased while HCSs% increased in Turkey (66%), Vietnam (33%) and Ukraine (15%). In most countries, CPD ranged from 15 to 20 sticks except in Mexico (7.8), and India (10.4) where CPD declined by 18 and 22% respectively. MPOWER scores were moderately correlated with HCSs% in both sexes (r = 0.644, p = 0.044) and HCSp% (r = 0.632, p = 0.05) and among women only HCSs% (r = 0.804, p = 0.005) was significantly correlated with MPOWER score.

CONCLUSION

With declining smoking prevalence, HCS had also decreased and quit rates improved. Ecologically, a positive linear relationship between changes in smoking and HCS is a possible evidence against 'hardening'. Continued monitoring of the changes in quitting and hardcore smoking behaviours is required to plan cessation services.

Tobacco harm reduction: are smokers becoming more hardcore?

We undertook a systematic review to identify and summarise studies on hardcore smoking and hardening to: determine the degree of variability in definitions of hardcore smoking and hardening; assess the evidence for claims that smokers are becoming increasingly hardened within the context of harm reduction as a policy initiative; and identify the determining characteristics of a hardcore smoker. We searched five electronic databases from 1970 to mid-April 2018 using the search term "smok* AND hard* AND (tobacco OR cigar* OR nicotin*)". We included studies if they included a definition of hardcore smokers and/or hardening, and provided a prevalence rate for hard core smokers or empirical evidence for hardening. Definitions of hardcore smoker varied substantially across studies. Hardening was not evident in the general smoking population and we found mounting evidence of softening occurring in smoking populations. These results indicate that hardening of smokers is not occurring and that calls for policy interventions on this basis should be challenged.

Is the Australian smoking population hardening?

BACKGROUND

The hardening hypothesis proposes that as smoking rates decline, the remaining smokers will become hardcore and resistant to quitting. This group of highly resistant quitters will potentially require more individualistic approaches to cessation and harm reduction. The harm reduction approach (specifically e-cigarettes) has been proposed as an option to address hardened Australian smokers. We tested the hardening hypothesis by analysing the rates of hardcore smoking in the Australian smoking population between 2010 and 2016.

METHODS

Data were drawn from three waves of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS) in 2010, 2013 and 2016. Two different definitions were used to assess hardcore smoking to arrive at an upper and lower rate. Logistic regression models assessed hardcore smoker characteristics for both definitions of hardcore smoking.

RESULTS

The most inclusive definition of hardcore smoking (i.e., a smoker with no plan to quit) showed a significant decline in hardcore smoking between 2010 and 2016 (5.49%-4.85%) In contrast, the prevalence of hardcore smoking using the most stringent definition (i.e., a current daily smoker of at least 15 cigarettes per day, aged 26 years or over, with no intention to quit, a lifetime consumption of at least 100 cigarettes, and no quit attempt in the past 12 months) did not change significantly between 2010 and 2016.

CONCLUSION

The observed trends in the prevalence of hardcore smokers (i.e., either stable or declining depending on the definition) suggest that the Australian smoking population is not hardening. These results do not support claims that remaining smokers are becoming hardcore.

Burden of male hardcore smokers and its characteristics among those eligible for lung cancer screening

Background

There are few data available about hardcore smokers and their behavioral characteristics among the lung cancer screening (LCS) population. The study investigated the burden of hardcore smokers within the LCS population, and determine the characteristics of hardcore smokers using nationally representative data in South Korea.

Methods

We used data from 2007 to 2012 from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This study enrolled current male smokers aged 55–74 years. Among them, subjects eligible for LCS were defined as these populations with smoking histories of at least 30 PY. Hardcore smoking was defined as smoking >15 cigarettes per day, with no plan to quit, and having made no attempt to quit. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to estimate associations between hardcore smokers and various sociodemographic and other variables.

Results

The proportion of hardcore smokers among those who met LCS eligibility criteria decreased from 2007 to 2012 (from 39.07 to 29.47% of the population) but did not change significantly thereafter (P = 0.2770), and that proportion was consistently 10–15% higher than that of hardcore smokers among all male current smokers. The proportion without any plan to quit smoking decreased significantly from 54.35% in 2007 to 38.31% in 2012. However, the smokers who had made no intentional quit attempt in the prior year accounted for more than half of those eligible for LCS, and the proportion of such smokers did not change significantly during the study period (50.83% in 2007 and 51.03% in 2012). Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that hardcore smokers were older (OR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.09) than non-hardcore smokers. Hardcore smokers exhibited higher proportion of depression (OR = 6.55, 95% CI 1.75–24.61) and experienced extreme stress more frequently (OR = 1.93, 95% CI 1.13–3.29). Smokers who did not receive smoking cessation education within the past year were significantly more likely to be hardcore smokers (OR = 4.15, 95% CI 1.30–13.22).

Conclusions

It is important to identify a subset of smokers unwilling or minimally motivated to quit within the context of lung cancer screening. Anti-smoking education should be enhanced to influence hardcore smokers’ behavior.

Smokers who do not quit: Can the precaution adoption process model help identify hard-core smokers?

Introduction

Hard-core smokers have been identified as a potential public health challenge. The trans-theoretical model lacks the specificity to identify hard-core smokers. The precaution adoption process model (PAPM) is a stage-based behaviour change model which includes ‘no intent to quit’ as a distinct stage and so may be useful in identifying hard-core smokers.

Aims

The aim of this study was to apply the PAPM to a community based sample of smokers to determine whether it provides a useful approach to identifying hard-core smokers.

Methods

We surveyed smokers in Australia who were recruited through social media and an online data collection agency.

Results

The sample included 336 current smokers, 11.9% were in Stage 4 of the PAPM – i.e. had decided not to quit. Stage 4 smokers are more resistant to quitting and marked by their similarities to hard-core smokers. This is further amplified when addressing Stage 4 smokers with no previous quit attempt.

Conclusions

Stage 4 smokers with no previous quit attempts are aligned with a hard-core smoker profile with higher levels of nicotine dependence, greater cigarette consumption and low socio-economic status. Further research is required to determine if PAPM is a valid predictive model for identifying hard-core smokers in clinical practice.