Early dissemination of foot-and-mouth disease virus through sheep marketing in February 2001

Foot-and-Mouth Disease

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a viral infection of livestock that is an important determinant of global trade in animal products. The disease causes a highly contagious vesicular syndrome of cloven-hoofed animals. Successful control of FMD is dependent upon early detection and recognition of the clinical signs, followed by appropriate notification and response of responsible government entities. Awareness of the clinical signs of FMD amongst producers and veterinary practitioners is therefore the key in protecting US agriculture from the catastrophic impacts of an FMD outbreak. This review summarizes key clinical and epidemiologic features of FMD from a US perspective.

Crossing the Line: Seroprevalence and Risk Factors for Transboundary Animal Diseases Along the Tanzania-Zambia Border

Transboundary pathogens pose a threat to livelihood security in countries such as Zambia and Tanzania. This study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV), sheep and goat pox virus (SGPV), Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) and Brucella spp. in sheep and goats along the Tanzania-Zambia border. Another aim was to assess the association between certain predictor variables and seroprevalence, focusing on trade and proximity to an international border, to a town and to the Tanzania-Zambia highway. During September-October 2018, 486 serum samples from small ruminants in Zambia and 491 in Tanzania were collected and analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). A questionnaire focused on management strategies was administered to each household. The animal-level seroprevalence in Zambia was 0.21% [95% confidence interval (CI) (0.01–1.14) for PPRV, 1.03% (95% CI 0.33–2.39) for FMDV, 0% (95% CI 0–0.76) for SGPV, 2.26% (95% CI 1.14–4.01) for RVFV and 1.65% (95% CI 0.71–3.22) for Brucella spp.]. In Tanzania, animal-level seroprevalence was 2.85% (95% CI 1.57–4.74) for PPRV, 16.9% (95% CI 13.7–20.5) for FMDV, 0.20% (95% CI 0.01–1.13) for SGPV, 3.26% (95% CI 1.87–5.24) for RVFV and 20.0% (95% CI 14.5–26.5) for Brucella spp. For PPRV (OR 6.83, 95% CI 1.37–34.0, p = 0.019) and FMDV (OR 5.68, 95% CI 1.58–20.3, p = 0.008), herds situated more than 30 km from an international border were more likely to be seropositive, while being located 10–30 km (OR 4.43, 95% CI 1.22–16.1 p = 0.024) from a border was identified as a risk factor for Brucella spp. For FMDV (OR 79.2, 95% CI 4.52–1388.9, p = 0.003), being situated within 30 km from a town was associated with seropositivity. Furthermore, contact with wild ruminants (OR 18.2, 95% CI 1.36–244), and the presence of sheep in the household (OR 5.20, 95% CI 1.00–26.9, p = 0.049), was associated with seropositivity for PPRV, and FMDV. No significant associations between trade or distance to the Tan-Zam highway and seroprevalence were found. We recommend that the impact of trade and proximity to borders, towns and roads should be further evaluated in larger studies, ideally incorporating aspects such as temporal trade fluctuations.

Development of a transboundary model of livestock disease in Europe

Epidemiological models of notifiable livestock disease are typically framed at a national level and targeted for specific diseases. There are inherent difficulties in extending models beyond national borders as details of the livestock population, production systems and marketing systems of neighbouring countries are not always readily available. It can also be a challenge to capture heterogeneities in production systems, control policies, and response resourcing across multiple countries, in a single transboundary model.

In this paper, we describe EuFMDiS, a continental‐scale modelling framework for transboundary animal disease, specifically designed to support emergency animal disease planning in Europe. EuFMDiS simulates the spread of livestock disease within and between countries and allows control policies to be enacted and resourced on a per‐country basis. It provides a sophisticated decision support tool that can be used to look at the risk of disease introduction, establishment and spread; control approaches in terms of effectiveness and costs; resource management; and post‐outbreak management issues.

The role of livestock movements in the spread of Rift Valley fever virus in animals and humans in Mayotte, 2018-19

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral disease of major animal and public health importance. In 2018–19, it caused an epidemic in both livestock and human populations of the island of Mayotte. Using Bayesian modelling approaches, we assessed the spatio-temporal pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in livestock and human populations across the island, and factors shaping it. First, we assessed if (i) livestock movements, (ii) spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, and (iii) livestock density were associated with the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into Mayotte communes’ livestock populations. Second, we assessed whether the rate of human infection was associated with (a) spatial proximity from and (b) livestock density of communes with infected animals. Our analyses showed that the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into communes’ livestock populations was associated with livestock movements and spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with livestock movements being associated with the best model fit. Moreover, the pattern of human cases was associated with their spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with the risk of human infection sharply increasing if livestock in the same or close communes were infected. This study highlights the importance of understanding livestock movement networks in informing the design of risk-based RVF surveillance programs.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease, endemic in many sub-Saharan Africa regions with substantial outbreaks. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted to animals primarily by the bite of infected mosquitos, whereas direct or indirect contact with infected animals forms the primary route of RVFV transmission to humans. In 2018–19, Mayotte, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa, experienced an RVF epidemic in both livestock and humans. In this study, we investigated factors shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of RVFV infection in livestock and human populations across Mayotte. The diffusion of RVFV through Mayotte’s livestock population was associated with livestock movements and, potentially to a lesser extent, spatial proximity from communes with infected animals. Moreover, the pressure of infection on humans was the highest if nearby livestock were infected. This study highlights the value of accounting for the structure of livestock movement networks in the surveillance of zoonotic diseases at the human-animal interface, and the need for One Health approaches.

Parallels, differences and lessons: a comparison of the management of foot-and-mouth disease and COVID-19 using UK 2001/2020 as points of reference

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an extremely infectious viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals which is highly challenging to control and can give rise to national animal health crises, especially if there is a lack of pre-existing immunity due to the emergence of new strains or following incursions into disease-free regions. The 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK was on a scale that initially overwhelmed the national veterinary services and was eventually controlled by livestock lockdown and slaughter on an unprecedented scale. In 2020, the rapid emergence of COVID-19 has led to a human pandemic unparalleled in living memory. The enormous logistics of multi-agency control efforts for COVID-19 are reminiscent of the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK, as are the use of movement restrictions, not normally a feature of human disease control. The UK experience is internationally relevant as few countries have experienced national epidemic crises for both diseases. In this review, we reflect on the experiences and lessons learnt from UK and international responses to FMD and COVID-19 with respect to their management, including the challenge of preclinical viral transmission, threat awareness, early detection, different interpretations of scientific information, lockdown, biosecurity behaviour change, shortage of testing capacity and the choices for eradication versus living with infection. A major lesson is that the similarity of issues and critical resources needed to manage large-scale outbreaks demonstrates that there is benefit to a ‘One Health’ approach to preparedness, with potential for greater cooperation in planning and the consideration of shared critical resources.

Virulence beneath the fleece; a tale of foot-and-mouth disease virus pathogenesis in sheep

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is capable of infecting all cloven-hoofed domestic livestock species, including cattle, pigs, goats, and sheep. However, in contrast to cattle and pigs, the pathogenesis of FMDV in small ruminants has been incompletely elucidated. The objective of the current investigation was to characterize tissue- and cellular tropism of early and late stages of FMDV infection in sheep following three different routes of simulated natural virus exposure. Extensive post-mortem harvest of tissue samples at pre-determined time points during early infection (24 and 48 hours post infection) demonstrated that tissues specifically susceptible to primary FMDV infection included the paraepiglottic- and palatine tonsils, as well as the nasopharyngeal mucosa. Additionally, experimental aerosol inoculation of sheep led to substantial virus replication in the lungs at 24-48 hours post-inoculation. During persistent infection (35 days post infection), the paraepiglottic- and palatine tonsils were the only tissues from which infectious FMDV was recovered. This is strikingly different from cattle, in which persistent FMDV infection has consistently been located to the nasopharyngeal mucosa. Analysis of tissue sections by immunomicroscopy revealed a strict epithelial tropism during both early and late phases of infection as FMDV was consistently localized to cytokeratin-expressing epithelial cells. This study expands upon previous knowledge of FMDV pathogenesis in sheep by providing detailed information on the temporo-anatomic distribution of FMDV in ovine tissues. Findings are discussed in relation to similar investigations previously performed in cattle and pigs, highlighting similarities and differences in FMDV pathogenesis across natural host species.

Network analysis of pig movements in Argentina: Identification of key farms in the spread of infectious diseases and their biosecurity levels

This study uses network analysis to evaluate how swine movements in Argentina could contribute to disease spread. Movement data for the 2014-2017 period were obtained from Argentina's online livestock traceability registry and categorized as follows: animals of high genetic value sent to other farms, animals to or from markets, animals sent to finisher operations and slaughterhouse. A network analysis was carried out considering the first three movement types. First, descriptive, centrality and cohesion measures were calculated for each movement type and year. Next, to determine whether networks had a small-world topology, these were compared with the results from random Erdös-Rényi network simulations. Then, the basic reproductive number (R₀ ) of the genetic network, the group of farms with higher potential for disease spread standing at the top of the production chain, was calculated to identify farms acting as super-spreaders. Finally, their external biosecurity scores were evaluated. The genetic network in Argentina presented a scale-free and small-world topology. Thus, we estimate that disease spread would be fast, preferably to highly connected nodes and with little chances of being contained. Throughout the study, 31 farms were identified as super-spreaders in the genetic network for all years, while other 55 were super-spreaders at least once, from an average of 1,613 farms per year. Interestingly, removal of less than 5% of higher degree and betweenness farms resulted in a >90% reduction of R₀ indicating that few farms have a key role in disease spread. When biosecurity scores of the most relevant super-spreaders were examined, it was evident that many were at risk of introducing and disseminating new pathogens across the whole of Argentina's pig production network. These results highlight the usefulness of establishing targeted surveillance and intervention programmes, emphasizing the need for better biosecurity scores in Argentinean swine production units, especially in super-spreader farms.

Dynamic contact networks of swine movement in Manitoba, Canada: Characterization and implications for infectious disease spread

We use swine shipping data from Manitoba to construct one-mode dynamic contact networks of swine locations and two-mode location-to-truck networks at four time scales: daily, weekly, monthly and for the entire two-year study period. We provide measures of graph evolution and graph characterization for each, useful in the development of statistical models related to infectious disease transmission. We find that Manitoba shipping practices differ from those in other Canadian regions, and particularly that truck sharing is more common in Manitoba than elsewhere in the country.

Network analyses using case-control data to describe and characterize the initial 2014 incursion of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) in Canadian swine herds

The overall objective of this study was to describe the contact structure and animal movement patterns of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) case herds and matched control herds during the initial incursion of PEDV in Canada, and to evaluate possible mechanisms of spread during this period. Possible mechanisms of spread included transmission through a common-source, herd-to-herd transmission, and transmission due to low biosecurity. Three hypotheses were evaluated by assessing: 1) whether feed supplier, semen supplier and/or animal transportation company networks contained a higher proportion of case herds compared to randomly permuted networks, 2) whether the proportion of case herds in the giant weak component differed from randomly permuted networks, and 3) whether external herd biosecurity, defined as the number of mean contacts with other herds in a one-mode network, was different between case and control herds. The study period for recruiting case and control herds was from January 22, 2014 to March 1, 2014, and a 30-day history of each participating site was collected using a questionnaire. The study included swine herds located in central and eastern Canadian provinces. Multiple two-mode networks with swine herds and service suppliers were constructed. This included feed suppliers, animal movement, animal transportation companies, semen suppliers and a complete network with all service providers. The complete network consisted of 145 nodes. There were a total of 765 edges in the complete network and majority were between feed suppliers and primary herds 29.8% (228/765). The proportion of case herds in the largest feed supplier network was higher than what was expected using randomly permuted networks, suggesting that the likely mechanism of spread during this phase was a common-source through the feed network. A single feed supplier (FS1) had the highest out-degree and outgoing contact chain indicating its importance in disease spread throughout the feed and complete networks. Network descriptive measures, as well as the results of the hypotheses testing indicate little significance in the roles of animal movement, animal transportation companies, and semen suppliers during the initial phase of the 2014 Canadian PED outbreak.

Livestock trade network: potential for disease transmission and implications for risk-based surveillance on the island of Mayotte

The island of Mayotte is a department of France, an outermost region of the European Union located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa. Due to its close connection to the African mainland and neighbouring islands, the island is under constant threat of introduction of infectious diseases of both human and animal origin. Here, using social network analysis and mathematical modelling, we assessed potential implications of livestock movements between communes in Mayotte for risk-based surveillance. Our analyses showed that communes in the central region of Mayotte acted as a hub in the livestock movement network. The majority of livestock movements occurred between communes in the central region and from communes in the central region to those in the outer region. Also, communes in the central region were more likely to be infected earlier than those in the outer region when the spread of an exotic infectious disease was simulated on the livestock movement network. The findings of this study, therefore, suggest that communes in the central region would play a major role in the spread of infectious diseases via livestock movements, which needs to be considered in the design of risk-based surveillance systems in Mayotte.

Social Influence in Liver Fluke Transmission: Application of Social Network Analysis of Food Sharing in Thai Isaan Culture

In northeastern Thai (Isaan) culture traditional raw fish dishes and raw fish-eating habits are common. Eating and sharing meals together among the community's members, especially relatives and neighbours, are a common practice in both daily life and social gathering events. Fish are a significant protein source and are associated with variety of traditional recipes. Cyprinid fish are one of the most preferred fish by Isaan villagers for daily consumption because they are accessible and affordable. Consumption of these fish probably causes the persistence of high endemicity of human liver fluke infection, particularly with Opisthorchis viverrini, in northeast Thailand. Because the consumption of raw cyprinid fish is a well-documented risk factor for liver fluke infection, sharing of risky raw fish dishes may influence disease transmission through a community. Social network analysis was used to investigate fish and fish-based meal sharing among household members in Isaan villages in liver fluke endemic areas. The findings from three studies confirmed the persistence of traditional Isaan raw fish consumption and food-sharing practice. Social connections via food sharing among villagers played an important role in liver fluke infection and transmission dynamics as a risk factor. Thus these sociocultural factors should be taken into account in designing strategies for control of opisthorchiasis and other food-borne illnesses at the community level.

Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus during the Incubation Period in Pigs

Understanding the quantitative characteristics of a pathogen’s capability to transmit during distinct phases of infection is important to enable accurate predictions of the spread and impact of a disease outbreak. In the current investigation, the potential for transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) during the incubation (preclinical) period of infection was investigated in seven groups of pigs that were sequentially exposed to a group of donor pigs that were infected by simulated-natural inoculation. Contact-exposed pigs were comingled with infected donors through successive 8-h time slots spanning from 8 to 64 h post-inoculation (hpi) of the donor pigs. The transition from latent to infectious periods in the donor pigs was clearly defined by successful transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to all contact pigs that were exposed to the donors from 24 hpi and later. This onset of infectiousness occurred concurrent with detection of viremia, but approximately 24 h prior to the first appearance of clinical signs of FMD in the donors. Thus, the latent period of infection ended approximately 24 h before the end of the incubation period. There were significant differences between contact-exposed groups in the time elapsed from virus exposure to the first detection of FMDV shedding, viremia, and clinical lesions. Specifically, the onset and progression of clinical FMD were more rapid in pigs that had been exposed to the donor pigs during more advanced phases of disease, suggesting that these animals had received a higher effective challenge dose. These results demonstrate transmission and dissemination of FMD within groups of pigs during the incubation period of infection. Furthermore, these findings suggest that under current conditions, shedding of FMDV in oropharyngeal fluids is a more precise proxy for FMDV infectiousness than clinical signs of infection. These findings may impact modeling of the propagation of FMD outbreaks that initiate in pig holdings and should be considered when designing FMD control strategies.

Exploring pig trade patterns to inform the design of risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies

An understanding of the patterns of animal contact networks provides essential information for the design of risk-based animal disease surveillance and control strategies. This study characterises pig movements throughout England and Wales between 2009 and 2013 with a view to characterising spatial and temporal patterns, network topology and trade communities. Data were extracted from the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA)'s RADAR (Rapid Analysis and Detection of Animal-related Risks) database, and analysed using descriptive and network approaches. A total of 61,937,855 pigs were moved through 872,493 movements of batches in England and Wales during the 5-year study period. Results show that the network exhibited scale-free and small-world topologies, indicating the potential for diseases to quickly spread within the pig industry. The findings also provide suggestions for how risk-based surveillance strategies could be optimised in the country by taking account of highly connected holdings, geographical regions and time periods with the greatest number of movements and pigs moved, as these are likely to be at higher risk for disease introduction. This study is also the first attempt to identify trade communities in the country, information which could be used to facilitate the pig trade and maintain disease-free status across the country in the event of an outbreak.

Comparison of alternatives to passive surveillance to detect foot and mouth disease incursions in Victoria, Australia

This study aimed to evaluate strategies to enhance the early detection of foot and mouth disease incursions in Australia. Two strategies were considered. First, improving the performance of the current passive surveillance system. Second, supplementing the current passive system with active surveillance strategies based on testing animals at saleyards or through bulk milk testing of dairy herds. Simulation modelling estimated the impact of producer education and awareness by either increasing the daily probability that a farmer will report the presence of diseased animals or by reducing the proportion of the herd showing clinical signs required to trigger a disease report. Both increasing the probability of reporting and reducing the proportion of animals showing clinical signs resulted in incremental decreases in the time to detection, the size and the duration of the outbreak. A gold standard system in which all producers reported the presence of disease once 10% of the herd showed clinical signs reduced the median time to detection of the outbreak from 20 to 15days, the duration of the subsequent outbreak from 53 to 42days and the number of infected farms from 46 to 32. Bulk milk testing reduced the median time to detection by two days and the number of infected farms by six but had no impact on the duration of the outbreak. Screening of animals at saleyards provided no improvement over the current passive surveillance system alone while having significant resource issues. It is concluded that the most effective way to achieve early detection of incursions of foot and mouth disease into Victoria, Australia is to invest in improving producer reporting.

Network, cluster and risk factor analyses for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome using data from swine sites participating in a disease control program

The objectives of this study were to describe networks of Ontario swine sites and their service providers (including trucking, feed, semen, gilt and boar companies); to categorize swine sites into clusters based on site-level centrality measures, and to investigate risk factors for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) using information gathered from the above-mentioned analyses. All 816 sites included in the current study were enrolled in the PRRS area regional control and elimination projects in Ontario. Demographics, biosecurity and network data were collected using a standardized questionnaire and PRRS status was determined on the basis of available diagnostic tests and assessment by site veterinarians. Two-mode networks were transformed into one-mode dichotomized networks. Cluster and risk factor analyses were conducted separately for breeding and growing pig sites. In addition to the clusters obtained from cluster analyses, other explanatory variables of interest included: production type, type of animal flow, use of a shower facility, and number of neighboring swine sites within 3km. Unadjusted univariable analyses were followed by two types of adjusted models (adjusted for production systems): a generalizing estimation equation model (GEE) and a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). Results showed that the gilt network was the most fragmented network, followed by the boar and truck networks. Considering all networks simultaneously, approximately 94% of all swine sites were indirectly connected. Unadjusted risk factor analyses showed significant associations between almost all predictors of interest and PRRS positivity, but these disappeared once production system was taken into consideration. Finally, the vast majority of the variation on PRRS status was explained by production system according to GLMM, which shows the highly correlated nature of the data, and raises the point that interventions at this level could potentially have high impact in PRRS status change and/or maintenance.

Assessing the delay to detection and the size of the outbreak at the time of detection of incursions of foot and mouth disease in Australia

The time delay to detection of an outbreak of an emergency animal disease directly affects the size of the outbreak at detection and the likelihood that the disease can be eradicated. This time delay is a direct function of the efficacy of the surveillance system in the country involved. Australia has recently completed a comprehensive review of its general surveillance system examining regional variation in both the behaviour of modelled outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and the likelihood that each outbreak will be detected and reported to government veterinary services. The size of the outbreak and the time delay from introduction to the point where 95% confidence of detection was reached showed significant (p < 0.05) regional variation with the more remote northern areas experiencing smaller outbreaks that are less likely to spread and less likely to be reported to government services than outbreaks in the more developed southern areas of Australia. Outbreaks in the more densely populated areas may take up to 43 days until a 95% confidence of detection is achieved and at that time, the outbreak may involve up to 53 farms.

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.

Integrating novel data streams to support biosurveillance in commercial livestock production systems in developed countries: challenges and opportunities

Reducing the burden of emerging and endemic infectious diseases on commercial livestock production systems will require the development of innovative technology platforms that enable information from diverse animal health resources to be collected, analyzed, and communicated in near real-time. In this paper, we review recent initiatives to leverage data routinely observed by farmers, production managers, veterinary practitioners, diagnostic laboratories, regulatory officials, and slaughterhouse inspectors for disease surveillance purposes. The most commonly identified challenges were (1) the lack of standardized systems for recording essential data elements within and between surveillance data streams, (2) the additional time required to collect data elements that are not routinely recorded by participants, (3) the concern over the sharing and use of business sensitive information with regulatory authorities and other data analysts, (4) the difficulty in developing sustainable incentives to maintain long-term program participation, and (5) the limitations in current methods for analyzing and reporting animal health information in a manner that facilitates actionable response. With the significant recent advances in information science, there are many opportunities to develop more sophisticated systems that meet national disease surveillance objectives, while still providing participants with valuable tools and feedback to manage routine animal health concerns.

Clinical and virological dynamics of a serotype O 2010 South East Asia lineage foot-and-mouth disease virus in sheep using natural and simulated natural inoculation and exposure systems

Within-host infection dynamics of a recent field isolate of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), serotype O, topotype South East Asia, lineage Myamar'98 were evaluated in sheep using four different systems for virus exposure. Two novel, simulated natural, inoculation systems consisting of intra-nasopharyngeal (INP) deposition and aerosol inoculation were evaluated in comparison with two conventional systems: coronary band inoculation and direct contact exposure. All four exposure systems were efficient in generating consistently severe, generalized FMD with synchronous clinical characteristics within exposure groups, indicating that this Myanmar98 strain is highly virulent in sheep. Clinical and virological dynamics were similarly rapid following INP- and coronary band inoculation, with both systems leading to significantly earlier detection of virus shedding when compared to aerosol inoculation and contact exposure. The data presented herein support application of the two optimized simulated natural inoculation systems as valid alternatives to conventionally used exposure systems for studies of FMDV pathogenesis and vaccinology in sheep. Furthermore, the data suggest that targeted exposure of the ovine pharynx is highly efficient for generating consistent FMDV infection, which supports critical involvement of this anatomic region as a site of primary virus replication in sheep.

From network analysis to risk analysis--An approach to risk-based surveillance for bovine tuberculosis in Minnesota, US

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) was first detected in 2005 in cattle in northwestern Minnesota (MN) through slaughter surveillance. By the end of 2008, 12 cattle herds were infected with bTB, and the main cause for infection was determined to be the movement of infected animals between herds. Bovine tuberculosis was contained in a smaller area in northwestern Minnesota classified as modified accredited (MA), corresponding to a prevalence inferior to 0.1% in cattle. From January 2008 to 2011, all cattle movements within the bTB MA were recorded electronically. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize cattle movements within this region and identify cattle herds with higher risk of bTB introduction based on network parameters and known risk factors from the published literature. During the period that data was collected, 57,460 cattle were moved in 3762 movements corresponding to permits issued to 682 premises, mostly representing private farms, sale yards, slaughter facilities and county or state fairs. Although sale yards represented less than 2% of the premises (nodes), 60% of the movements were to or from a sale yard. The network showed an overall density of 0.4%, a clustering coefficient of 14.6% and a betweenness centralization index of 12.7%, reflecting the low connectivity of this cattle network. The degree distribution showed that 20% of nodes performed 90% of the movements. Farms were ranked based on the total risk score and divided into high, medium, and low risk groups based on the score and its variability. The higher risk group included 14% (n=50) of the farms, corresponding to 80% of the cumulative risk for the farms in the bTB area. This analysis provides a baseline description about the contact structure of cattle movements in an area previously infected with bTB and develops a framework for a targeted surveillance approach for bTB to support future surveillance decisions.

On-farm characteristics and biosecurity protocols for small-scale swine producers in eastern Australia

Pigs are considered high risk for the introduction and spread of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Australia. Facilities where animals from different origins are commingled, such as saleyards, pose a high risk for disease spread. Sound on-farm management practices and biosecurity protocols are the first line of defence against a potential on-farm disease outbreak. This study evaluated the practices of 104 producers (vendors who sold pigs and purchasers of live pigs for grow-out) who traded pigs at 6 peri-urban and rural saleyards in eastern Australia. Specifically, management and on-farm biosecurity practices were assessed using an in-depth questionnaire. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to investigate (1) producer associations: producer type, State, motivation to keep pigs, farm type, gender, years having owned pigs, and the acquisition of formal livestock qualifications; and (2) pig associations: herd size, housing, management (husbandry and feeding) practices and biosecurity (including pig movement) practices. Backyard operations (<20 sows) were undertaken by 60.6% of participants, followed by small-scale pig operations (28.8%; 21-100 sows). Few producers (16.3%) reported residing in close proximity (<5 km) to commercial operations; however, less rural producers had neighbouring hobby pig operations within 5 km of their property (P=0.033). Motivation for keeping pigs was significantly associated with a number of biosecurity practices. Producers who kept pigs for primary income were more likely to provide footwear precautions (P=0.007) and ask visitors about prior pig contacts (P=0.004). Approximately 40% of backyard and small-scale producers reported not having any quarantine practices in place for incoming pigs, compared to only 9.1% among larger producers. The main reasons cited for not adopting on-farm biosecurity practices in this study included having no need on their property (43.1%) and a lack of information and support (by the industry and/or authorities; 18.5%). Up to three-quarters of all producers maintained an open breeding herd, regularly introducing new pigs to the main herd. Saleyards are an important source of income for backyard and small-scale producers as well as an important risk factor for the introduction and dissemination of endemic and emerging animal diseases. Differing management and biosecurity practices as well as the motivations of these producers keeping pigs in small numbers and trading pigs at saleyards need to be taken into account in the development of successful biosecurity extension programmes for this sector of the Australian pork industry.

Coxiella burnetii seroprevalence and risk factors in sheep farmers and farm residents in The Netherlands

SUMMARY

In this study, Coxiella burnetii seroprevalence was assessed for dairy and non-dairy sheep farm residents in The Netherlands for 2009-2010. Risk factors for seropositivity were identified for non-dairy sheep farm residents. Participants completed farm-based and individual questionnaires. In addition, participants were tested for IgG and IgM C. burnetii antibodies using immunofluorescent assay. Risk factors were identified by univariate, multivariate logistic regression, and multivariate multilevel analyses. In dairy and non-dairy sheep farm residents, seroprevalence was 66·7% and 51·3%, respectively. Significant risk factors were cattle contact, high goat density near the farm, sheep supplied from two provinces, high frequency of refreshing stable bedding, farm started before 1990 and presence of the Blessumer breed. Most risk factors indicate current or past goat and cattle exposure, with limited factors involving sheep. Subtyping human, cattle, goat, and sheep C. burnetii strains might elucidate their role in the infection risk of sheep farm residents.

Network analysis of swine shipments in Ontario, Canada, to support disease spread modelling and risk-based disease management

Understanding contact networks are important for modelling and managing the spread and control of communicable diseases in populations. This study characterizes the swine shipment network of a multi-site production system in southwestern Ontario, Canada. Data were extracted from a company's database listing swine shipments among 251 swine farms, including 20 sow, 69 nursery and 162 finishing farms, for the 2-year period of 2006 to 2007. Several network metrics were generated. The number of shipments per week between pairs of farms ranged from 1 to 6. The medians (and ranges) of out-degree were: sow 6 (1-21), nursery 8 (0-25), and finishing 0 (0-4), over the entire 2-year study period. Corresponding estimates for in-degree of nursery and finishing farms were 3 (0-9) and 3 (0-12) respectively. Outgoing and incoming infection chains (OIC and IIC), were also measured. The medians (ranges) of the monthly OIC and IIC were 0 (0-8) and 0 (0-6), respectively, with very similar measures observed for 2-week intervals. Nursery farms exhibited high measures of centrality. This indicates that they pose greater risks of disease spread in the network. Therefore, they should be given a high priority for disease prevention and control measures affecting all age groups alike. The network demonstrated scale-free and small-world topologies as observed in other livestock shipment studies. This heterogeneity in contacts among farm types and network topologies should be incorporated in simulation models to improve their validity. In conclusion, this study provided useful epidemiological information and parameters for the control and modelling of disease spread among swine farms, for the first time from Ontario, Canada.

Can geographical factors determine the choices of farmers in the Ethiopian Highlands to trade in livestock markets?

Proximity and affiliation to the local market appear to be two of the most relevant factors to explain farmer's choices to select a particular trading point. Physical barriers may limit the options , especially in developing countries. A network of villages linked by traders/farmer-traders sharing livestock markets was built with field data collected in 75 villages from 8 kebelles in the Wassona Werna wereda of the Ethiopian Highlands. Two exponential random graph models were fitted with various geographical and demographic attributes of the nodes (dyadic independent model) and three internal network structures (dyadic dependent model). Several diagnostic methods were applied to assess the goodness of fit of the models. The odds of an edge where the distance to the main market Debre Behran and the difference in altitude between two connected villages are both large increases significantly so that villages far away from the main market and at different altitude are more likely to be linked in the network than randomly. The odds of forming an edge between two villages in Abamote or Gudoberet kebelles are approximately 75% lower than an edge between villages in any other kebelles (p<0.05). The conditional log-odds of two villages forming a tie that is not included in a triangle, a 2-star or a 3-star is extremely low, increasing the odds significantly (p<0.05) each time a node is in a 2-star structure and decreasing it when a node is in a 3-star (p<0.05) or in a triangle formation (p<0.05)), conditional on the rest of the network. Two major constraining factors, namely distance and altitude, are not deterrent for the potential contact of susceptible small ruminant populations in the Highlands of Ethiopia.

A review of exotic animal disease in Great Britain and in Scotland specifically between 1938 and 2007

BACKGROUND

Incursions of contagious diseases of livestock into disease-free zones are inevitable as long as the diseases persist elsewhere in the world. Knowledge of where, when and how incursions have occurred helps assess the risks, and regionalize preventative and reactive measures.

METHODOLOGY

Based on reports of British governmental veterinary services, we review occurrence of the former OIE List A diseases, and of Aujeszky's disease, anthrax and bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in farm-animals in Great Britain (GB) between 1938 and 2007. We estimate incidence of each disease on GB agricultural holdings and fraction of susceptible farm-animals culled to control the disease each year. We then consider the frequency and incidence of the diseases in Scotland alone. The limitations of available data on historical disease occurrence and denominator populations are detailed in Text S2.

CONCLUSIONS

The numbers of livestock and poultry farmed in GB grew over the years 1938-2007; the number of agricultural holdings decreased. An amalgamation of production on larger holdings took place from the 1940s to the 1980s. The maximum annual incidence of a reviewed disease in GB 1938-2007 was reported for bTB, 1.69% of holdings in 1961. This was followed by Newcastle disease, 1.50% of holdings in 1971, and classical swine fever, 1.09% of holdings in 1940. The largest fractional cull of susceptible livestock in a single year in each of the four decades 1950s-1980s was due to a viral disease primarily affecting swine. During the periods 1938-1949 and 2000-2007 this was due to outbreaks of foot and mouth disease. In the absence of incursions of the former OIE List A diseases in the 1990s, this was due to bTB. Over the 70 years, the diseases were reported with lower frequency and lower annual incidence in Scotland, as compared to when these statistics are considered for GB as a whole.

Analysis of cattle movements in Argentina, 2005

We describe the movement of cattle throughout Argentina in 2005. Details of farm-to-farm and farm-to-slaughter movements of cattle were obtained from the Sanitary Management System database (Sistema de Gestión Sanitaria, SGS), maintained by the National Service for Agrifood Health and Quality (SENASA). Movements were described at the regional and district level in terms of frequency, the number of stock transported, the district of origin and destination and Euclidean distance traveled. Social network analysis was used to characterize the connections made between regions and districts as a result of cattle movement transactions, and to show how these characteristics might influence disease spread. Throughout 2005 a total of 1.3 million movement events involving 32 million head of cattle (equivalent to approximately 57% of the national herd) were recorded in the SGS database. The greatest number of farm-to-farm movements occurred from April to June whereas numbers of farm-to-slaughter movement events were relatively constant throughout the year. Throughout 2005 there was a 1.1-1.6-fold increase in the number of farm-to-farm movements of cattle during April-June, compared with other times of the year. District in-degree and out-degree scores varied by season, with higher maximum scores during the autumn and winter compared with summer and spring. Districts with high in-degree scores were concentrated in the Finishing region of the country whereas districts with high out-degree scores were concentrated not only in the Finishing region but also in Mesopotamia, eastern Border and southern Central regions. Although movements of cattle from the Border region tended not to be mediated via markets, the small number of districts in this area with relatively high out-degree scores is a cause for concern as they have the potential to distribute infectious disease widely, in the event of an incursion.

Assessment of current disease surveillance activities for pigs post-farmgate in New South Wales

OBJECTIVES

Evaluate current disease surveillance activities at saleyards and abattoirs in New South Wales (NSW) in order to establish the prevalence of clinical anomalies in pigs at different sites and to compare the sensitivity of detecting anomalies inside versus outside of pens.

PROCEDURE

Routine inspections of pigs by staff and government inspectors were observed at two saleyards and two abattoirs in NSW during three visits over a 2-month period (January 2008-March 2008). All pigs presented for sale or slaughter were examined for 19 clinical anomalies from either the side of the pen or while animals were moving outside the pen, with data being combined to give an assumed 'gold standard'. We compared the prevalence of anomalies among animals at the four sites using logistic regression, as well as the sensitivity of detection of the two inspection methods.

RESULTS

Frequency and methodology of routine inspection varied among sites. Of the 7747 pigs inspected, 822 (10.6%) showed at least one clinical anomaly. There was moderate agreement between detecting anomalies in penned pigs versus while being moved. Pigs at one abattoir exhibited significantly fewer anomalies than pigs at the other sites.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of anomalies among pigs at saleyards and abattoirs in NSW was relatively high ( approximately 10%). Weaknesses in current disease surveillance activities for pigs post-farmgate have been identified. Increased regulation, surveillance training and modification of standard operational procedures for inspection have the potential to improve the current system.

Parameterization of the duration of infection stages of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus: an analytical review and meta-analysis with application to simulation models

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is considered one of the most important infectious diseases of livestock because of the devastating economic consequences that it inflicts in affected regions. The value of critical parameters, such as the duration of the latency or the duration of the infectious periods, which affect the transmission rate of the FMD virus (FMDV), are believed to be influenced by characteristics of the host and the virus. Disease control and surveillance strategies, as well as FMD simulation models, will benefit from improved parameter estimation. The objective of this study was to quantify the distributions of variables associated with the duration of the latency, subclinical, incubation, and infectiousness periods of FMDV transmission. A double independent, systematic review of 19 retrieved publications reporting results from experimental trials, using 295 animals in four reference laboratories, was performed to extract individual values related to FMDV transmission. Probability density functions were fitted to data and a set of regression models were used to identify factors associated with the assessed parameters. Latent, subclinical, incubation, and infectious periods ranged from 3.1 to 4.8, 2 to 2.3, 5.5 to 6.6, and 3.3 to 5.7 days, respectively. Durations were significantly (p < 0.05) associated independently with route of exposure, type of donor, animal species, strains, characteristics of sampling, and clinical signs. These results will contribute to the improvement of disease control and surveillance strategies and stochastic models used to simulate FMD spread and, ultimately, development of cost-effective plans to prevent and control the potential spread of the disease in FMD-free regions of the world.

Spatial and temporal investigations of reported movements, births and deaths of cattle and pigs in Sweden

Background

Livestock movements can affect the spread and control of contagious diseases and new data recording systems enable analysis of these movements. The results can be used for contingency planning, modelling of disease spread and design of disease control programs.

Methods

Data on the Swedish cattle and pig populations during the period July 2005 until June 2006 were obtained from databases held by the Swedish Board of Agriculture. Movements of cattle and pigs were investigated from geographical and temporal perspectives, births and deaths of cattle were investigated from a temporal perspective and the geographical distribution of holdings was also investigated.

Results

Most movements of cattle and pigs were to holdings within 100 km, but movements up to 1200 km occurred. Consequently, the majority of movements occurred within the same county or to adjacent counties. Approximately 54% of the cattle holdings and 45% of the pig holdings did not purchase any live animals. Seasonal variations in births and deaths of cattle were identified, with peaks in spring. Cattle movements peaked in spring and autumn. The maximum number of holdings within a 3 km radius of one holding was 45 for cattle and 23 for pigs, with large variations among counties. Missing data and reporting bias (digit preference) were detected in the data.

Conclusion

The databases are valuable tools in contact tracing. However since movements can be reported up to a week after the event and some data are missing they cannot replace other methods in the acute phase of an outbreak. We identified long distance transports of cattle and pigs, and these findings support an implementation of a total standstill in the country in the case of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The databases contain valuable information and improvements in data quality would make them even more useful.

Statistical modeling of holding level susceptibility to infection during the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain

BACKGROUND

An understanding of the factors that determine the risk of members of a susceptible population becoming infected is essential for estimating the potential for disease spread, as opposed to just focusing on transmission from an infected population. Furthermore, analysis of the risk factors can reveal important characteristics of an epidemic and further develop understanding of the processes operating.

METHODS

This paper describes the development of a mixed effects logistic regression model of susceptibility of holdings to foot and mouth disease (FMD) during the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain following the imposition of a national ban on the movements of susceptible animals (NMB).

RESULTS

The principal risk factors identified in the model were shorter distances to the nearest infectious seed (a holding infected before the NMB) and the county of the holding (principally Cumbria). Additional risk factors included holdings that are mixed species rather than single species, the surface area of the holding, and the number of cattle within 10km (all p<0.001), but not surrounding sheep densities (p>0.1). The fit of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) and the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi-squared statistic; the fit was good with both tests (area under the ROC=0.962 and Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi-squared statistic=49.98 (p>0.1)).

CONCLUSIONS

Holdings at greatest risk of infection can be identified using simple readily available risk factors; this information could be employed in the control of future FMD epidemics.

Is R(0) a good predictor of final epidemic size: foot-and-mouth disease in the UK

One of the main uses of an epidemic model is to predict the scale of an outbreak from the first few cases. In a homogeneous and non-spatial model there is a straightforward relationship between the basic reproductive ratio, R(0), and the final epidemic size; however when there is a significant spatial component to disease spread and the population is heterogeneous predicting how the epidemic size varies with the initial source of infection is far more complex. Here we use a well-developed spatio-temporal model of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease, parameterized to match the 2001 UK outbreak, to address the relationship between the scale of the epidemic and the nature of the initially infected farm. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in both the likelihood of a epidemic and the epidemic impact (total number of farms losing livestock to either infection or control) and that these two elements are best captured by measurements at different spatial scales. The likelihood of an epidemic can be predicted from a knowledge of the reproduction ratio of the initial farm (R(i)), whereas the epidemic impact conditional on an epidemic occurring is best predicted by averaging the second-generation reproduction ratio (R(i)((2))) in a 58 km ring around the infected farm. Combining these two predictions provides a good assessment of both the local and larger-scale heterogeneities present in this complex system.

Economic aspects of agricultural and food biosecurity

Concerns about biosecurity in the food system raise a variety of issues about how the system is presently organized, why it might be vulnerable, what we could reasonably do to better secure it, and the costs of doing so. Emphasizing the role of incentives in efficient resource allocation, this article considers economic dimensions of three aspects of the general problem. One is the global problem, or the way biosecurity measures can affect how countries relate to each other and the global consequences that result. Another is how to best manage the immediate aftermath of a realized threat in order to minimize damage. The third is how to seek to prevent realization of the threat. Some policy alternatives are presented.

Exploring the role of auction markets in cattle movements within Great Britain

Within Great Britain cattle are often traded at regional markets, of which there are approximately 200 located throughout England, Scotland and Wales. The movement of animals through markets was important in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus during the 2001 GB outbreak. Here, we describe the movements of cattle to and from markets for 2002-2004 and, using social network analysis, we construct networks based on these movements. In 2002, 56,227 animal holdings (AH) sent cattle to 222 cattle auction markets, compared to 58,476 AH and 187 auction markets in 2004. Auction markets vary considerably in their trading with AH. The majority of markets received animals from less than 50 AH, but one received animals from as many as 6155 AH during a year. The distances travelled between origin AH and destination AH when cattle move "directly" were found to be significantly shorter compared to distances between origin and destination AH where the movement occurred via a market. However, the vast majority of distances moved, for both types of movements, were less than 50 km. Some auction markets appear as highly connected premises within the contact network and are associated with high betweenness scores. However AH also occupy positions central to the contact network. The variation in the characteristics and role of individual markets within the contact network suggests important differences in risk of disease transmission associated with each market. Inclusion of network parameters, when considering the risk associated with moving cattle through auction markets may enhance the development of effective targeted disease control strategies.

Demographic structure and pathogen dynamics on the network of livestock movements in Great Britain

Using a novel interpretation of dynamic networks, we analyse the network of livestock movements in Great Britain in order to determine the risk of a large epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). This network is exceptionally well characterized, as there are legal requirements that the date, source, destination and number of animals be recorded and held on central databases. We identify a percolation threshold in the structure of the livestock network, indicating that, while there is little possibility of a national epidemic of FMD in winter when the catastrophic 2001 epidemic began, there remains a risk in late summer or early autumn. These predictions are corroborated by a non-parametric simulation in which the movements of livestock in 2003 and 2004 are replayed as they occurred. Despite the risk, we show that the network displays small-world properties which can be exploited to target surveillance and control and drastically reduce this risk.

A description of cattle movements in two departments of Buenos Aires province, Argentina

We present a descriptive analysis of cattle movement information retrieved from the Argentinean animal movement database for two departments in the province of Buenos Aires during 2004. For each quarter of the year (January to March, April to June, July to September, and October to December) we report the number of on- and off-farm movement events for the purpose of finishing. Our analyses show that the distribution of the number of finishing-related movement events per farm was skewed, with the majority of farms reporting at least 1 and less than 5% of farms of reporting greater than 15 finishing related movement events throughout the year. The frequency of finishing-related movement events varied over time, with a 1.2-1.8-fold increase in reported movement events from April to September, compared with the rest of the year. These analyses indicate that cattle movement patterns in these departments are dependent on the relative mix of constituent cattle enterprise types. Departments with a mixture of breeding and finishing enterprises behave as potential recipients and distributors of infectious disease, whereas departments comprised of primarily finishing enterprises are predominantly recipients of infectious disease, rather than distributors. Data integrity audits of the Argentinean animal movement database, on a regular or intermittent basis, should allow the presence of bias in these data to be quantified in greater detail.

Use of social network analysis to characterize the pattern of animal movements in the initial phases of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the UK

Aggregated movement data do not take into account the relative position of the units within a higher-level structure. Social network analysis (SNA) and graph theory provide a tool to organise and analyse relational data overcoming the limitations of standard methods where the position of individuals/observations does not affect the result of the analysis. Some recorded movements of cattle and sheep during the initial phase of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the UK, before the ban on animal movements was imposed, are analysed descriptively using SNA. With the data available, a directed dichotomized network with 653 nodes and 797 arches was analysed. Most of the 10 nodes with the highest betweenness (3 farms, 4 markets and 3 dealers) were identified as key players in the initial spread of the infection. Three groups of nodes with distinctive proportion of k < or = 2 neighbours would result in three different theoretical outbreak dimensions assuming that the infection is only disseminated by the movements included in the network: no spread, spread up to 7% and around 25%. There are three hierarchical clusters with 308, 215 and 130 nodes, respectively. Farms in cluster 1 appear to be more similar in their movement patterns to non-farm holdings than to farms in clusters 2 and 3. Relative betweenness, k-neighbours and structural equivalence using hierarchical clustering were able to identify key actors in the evolution of the initial phases of the FMD outbreak such as markets, dealers and farms with atypical movement patterns. Holdings with high betweenness, large number of k < or = 2 neighbours and with movement pattern as in cluster 1 should be targeted in disease control activities once primary actors like markets, dealers and slaughter houses have been contained.

Animal movements and the spread of infectious diseases

Domestic and wild animal population movements are important in the spread of disease. There are many recent examples of disease spread that have occurred as a result of intentional movements of livestock or wildlife. Understanding the volume of these movements and the risks associated with them is fundamental in elucidating the epidemiology of these diseases, some of which might entail zoonotic risks. The importance of the worldwide animal trade is reviewed and the role of the unregulated trade in animals is highlighted. A range of key examples are discussed in which animal movements have resulted in the introduction of pathogens to previously disease-free areas. Measures based on heightened surveillance are proposed that mitigate the risks of new pathogen introductions.

Infection in social networks: using network analysis to identify high-risk individuals

Simulation studies using susceptible-infectious-recovered models were conducted to estimate individuals' risk of infection and time to infection in small-world and randomly mixing networks. Infection transmitted more rapidly but ultimately resulted in fewer infected individuals in the small-world, compared with the random, network. The ability of measures of network centrality to identify high-risk individuals was also assessed. "Centrality" describes an individual's position in a population; numerous parameters are available to assess this attribute. Here, the authors use the centrality measures degree (number of contacts), random-walk betweenness (a measure of the proportion of times an individual lies on the path between other individuals), shortest-path betweenness (the proportion of times an individual lies on the shortest path between other individuals), and farness (the sum of the number of steps between an individual and all other individuals). Each was associated with time to infection and risk of infection in the simulated outbreaks. In the networks examined, degree (which is the most readily measured) was at least as good as other network parameters in predicting risk of infection. Identification of more central individuals in populations may be used to inform surveillance and infection control strategies.

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway, 2001. 1: Characteristics and control

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway in south-west Scotland comprised 177 infected premises (IPS) in 24 geographical clusters, and ran from March 1 until May 23, 2001. Initial seeding of infection was by livestock (predominantly sheep) that had passed through Longtown Market in adjacent Cumbria. Thereafter, spread within existing, and to new, clusters was associated with the movement of personnel and vehicles, with further transmission by Longtown Market contacts and across common boundaries. Sheep and cattle premises were equally affected. After the peak of the epidemic at the beginning of the third week of March, the upper possible limit of attack rates for premises contiguous to IPS, and premises within 3 km, remained around 10 per cent, with new clusters emerging more distantly. Control procedures included traditional methods of slaughter of all animals on IPS and, elsewhere, of animals considered by veterinary assessment to be Dangerous Contacts; movement restrictions; enhanced biosecurity; tracing of potential sources and spread of virus; and surveillance of premises subsequently considered at risk. These methods were supplemented by the novel pre-emptive slaughter, without veterinary assessment, of all susceptible livestock on all premises contiguous to IPS, and of small ruminants and pigs within a 3 km radius (known as the Protection Zone) around IPS. In total, approximately 80,000 cattle, 564,000 sheep, 2600 pigs and 500 goats were slaughtered, the novel methods accounting for 29 per cent of all cattle and 75 per cent of all sheep killed. Limitations of existing national databases necessitated the development of local databases to administer control procedures.