Stable angina pectoris: head-to-head comparison of prognostic value of cardiac CT and exercise testing

The Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Coronary Calcium Scoring in Stable Chest Pain Patients: A Narrative Review

Background  Non-contrast computed tomography (CT) scanning allows for reliable coronary calcium score (CCS) calculation at a low radiation dose and has been well established as marker to assess the future risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) events in asymptomatic individuals. However, the diagnostic and prognostic value in symptomatic patients remains a matter of debate. This narrative review focuses on the available evidence for CCS in patients with stable chest pain complaints.

Method  PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for literature using search terms related to three overarching categories: CT, symptomatic chest pain patients, and coronary calcium. The search resulted in 42 articles fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria: 27 articles (n = 38 137 patients) focused on diagnostic value and 23 articles (n = 44 683 patients) on prognostic value of CCS. Of these, 10 articles (n = 21 208 patients) focused on both the diagnostic and prognostic value of CCS.

Results  Between 22 and 10 037 patients were included in the studies on the diagnostic and prognostic value of CCS, including 43 % and 51 % patients with CCS 0. The most evidence is available for patients with a low and intermediate pre-test probability (PTP) of CAD. Overall, the prevalence of obstructive CAD (OCAD, defined as a luminal stenosis of ≥ 50 % in any of the coronary arteries) as determined with CT coronary angiography in CCS 0 patients, was 4.4 % (n = 703/16 074) with a range of 0–26 % in individual studies. The event rate for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) ranged from 0 % to 2.1 % during a follow-up of 1.6 to 6.8 years, resulting in a high negative predictive value for MACE between 98 % and 100 % in CCS 0 patients. At increasing CCS, the OCAD probability and MACE risk increased. OCAD was present in 58.3 % (n = 617/1058) of CCS > 400 patients with percentages ranging from 20 % to 94 % and MACE occurred in 16.7 % (n = 175/1048) of these patients with percentages ranging from 6.9 % to 50 %.

Conclusion  Accumulating evidence shows that OCAD is unlikely and the MACE risk is very low in symptomatic patients with CCS 0, especially in those with low and intermediate PTPs. This suggests a role of CCS as a gatekeeper for additional diagnostic testing. Increasing CCS is related to an increasing probability of OCAD and risk of cardiac events. Additional research is needed to assess the value of CCS in women and patient management in a primary healthcare setting.

Key Points:  

Citation Format

The usefulness of cardiac CT integrated with FFRCT for planning myocardial revascularization in complex coronary artery disease: a lesson from SYNTAX studies

After two decades of clinical use, during which coronary CT angiography (CCTA) was considered an appropriate method for the non-invasive assessment of patients with suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and low-to-intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD, a growing body of literature is showing that CCTA may have also a clinical role in patients with high pretest likelihood of CAD, known CAD and complex and diffuse CAD. Particularly, the SYNTAX studies demonstrated the usefulness of CCTA in the field of non-invasive assessment of these patients and planning of interventional and surgical coronary procedures, thanks to its ability to combine, in a single method, precise stenosis quantification, accurate plaque characterization, functional assessment and selection of the revascularization modality for any individual patient and of the vessels that need to be revascularized. Of note, the SYNTAX III Revolution trial showed, in patients with three-vessel CAD, that treatment decision-making between PCI and CABG based on CCTA only has an almost perfect agreement with the treatment decision derived from invasive coronary angiography (ICA). Moreover, the SYNTAX Score II demonstrated a high degree of correlation between the two diagnostic strategies, suggesting the potential feasibility of a treatment decision-making based solely on non-invasive imaging and clinical information. New research prospects have opened up for the future to demonstrate the true feasibility and safety of this innovative approach in the clinical arena.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography in Patients with Severe Calcification

Our aim was to analyze its diagnostic and prognostic value in patients with high coronary calcium score (CCS). A total of 113 patients with CCS > 400 were included. Significant coronary artery disease (CAD) was defined as stenosis ≥ 50%. Invasive coronary angiography and major cardiovascular events were recorded. The CCS and heart rate during the acquisition were significantly lower in the diagnostic coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) group. The cut-off value of CCS to establish the diagnostic utility of CCTA was 878. The rate of cardiovascular events was 9.3%. The positive predictive value of CCTA to detect significant CAD was 73.5% and the negative predictive value for predicting cardiovascular events was 96%. In patients with high CCS, CCTA is useful to evaluate CAD, especially when the CCS is lower or equal to 878; moreover, the prognostic value of CCTA is better in patients where significant CAD has been ruled out.

Plaque imaging with CT-a comprehensive review on coronary CT angiography based risk assessment

CT based technologies have evolved considerably in recent years. Coronary CT angiography (CTA) provides robust assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD). Early coronary CTA imaging-as a gate-keeper of invasive angiography-has focused on the presence of obstructive stenosis. Coronary CTA is currently the only non-invasive imaging modality for the evaluation of non-obstructive CAD, which has been shown to contribute to adverse cardiac events. Importantly, improved spatial resolution of CT scanners and novel image reconstruction algorithms enable the quantification and characterization of atherosclerotic plaques. State-of-the-art CT imaging can therefore reliably assess the extent of CAD and differentiate between various plaque features. Recent studies have demonstrated the incremental prognostic value of adverse plaque features over luminal stenosis. Comprehensive coronary plaque assessment holds potential to significantly improve individual risk assessment incorporating adverse plaque characteristics, the extent and severity of atherosclerotic plaque burden. As a result, several coronary CTA based composite risk scores have been proposed recently to determine patients at high risk for adverse events. Coronary CTA became a promising modality for the evaluation of functional significance of coronary lesions using CT derived fractional flow reserve (FFR-CT) and/or rest/dynamic myocardial CT perfusion. This could lead to substantial reduction in unnecessary invasive catheterization procedures and provide information on ischemic burden of CAD. Discordance between the degree of stenosis and ischemia has been recognized in clinical landmark trials using invasive FFR. Both lesion stenosis and composition are possibly related to myocardial ischemia. The evaluation of lesion-specific ischemia using combined functional and morphological plaque information could ultimately improve the diagnostic performance of CTA and thus patient care. In this review we aimed to summarize current evidence on comprehensive coronary artery plaque assessment using coronary CTA.

Prevalence and Prognosis of Nonobstructive Coronary Artery Disease in Patients Undergoing Coronary Angiography or Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography: A Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prevalence, clinical characteristics, and risk of cardiac events in patients with nonobstructive coronary artery disease (CAD).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library from January 1, 1990, to November 31, 2015. Studies were included if they reported prevalence or prognosis of patients with nonobstructive CAD (≤50% stenosis) among patients with known or suspected CAD. Patients with nonobstructive CAD were further grouped as those with no angiographic CAD (0% or ≤20%) and those with mild CAD (>0% or >20% to ≤50%). Data were pooled using random effects modeling, and annualized event rates were assessed.

RESULTS

Fifty-four studies with 1,395,190 participants were included. The prevalence of patients with nonobstructive CAD was 67% (95% CI, 63%-71%) among patients with stable angina and 13% (95% CI, 11%-16%) among patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. The prevalence varied depending on sex, clinical setting, and risk profile of the population investigated. The risk of hard cardiac events (cardiac death or myocardial infarction) in patients with mild CAD was lower than that in patients with obstructive CAD (risk ratio, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.20-0.38) but higher than that in those with no angiographic CAD (risk ratio, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.52-2.26). The annualized event rates of hard cardiac events in patients with no angiographic CAD, mild CAD, and obstructive CAD were 0.3% (95% CI, 0.1%-0.4%), 0.7% (95% CI, 0.5%-1.0%), and 2.7% (95% CI, 1.7%-3.7%), respectively, among patients with stable angina and 1.2% (95% CI, 0.02%-2.3%), 4.1% (95% CI, 3.3%-4.9%), and 17.0% (95% CI, 8.4%-25.7%) among patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. The correlation between CAD severity and prognosis is consistent regardless of clinical presentation of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, total cardiovascular events, and revascularization.

CONCLUSION

Nonobstructive CAD is associated with a favorable prognosis compared with obstructive CAD, but it is not benign. The high prevalence and impaired prognosis of this population warrants further efforts to improve the risk stratification and management of patients with nonobstructive CAD.

Differential Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography in Relation to Exercise Electrocardiography in Asymptomatic Subjects

BACKGROUND

To explore the prognostic performance of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and exercise electrocardiography (XECG) in asymptomatic subjects.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 812 (59 ± 9 years, 60.8% male) asymptomatic subjects who underwent CCTA and XECG concurrently from 2003 through 2009. Subjects were followed-up for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) including cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and revascularization after 90 days from index CCTA.

RESULTS

The prevalence of occult coronary artery disease (CAD) detected by CCTA was 17.5% and 120 subjects (14.8%) had positive XECG. During a mean follow-up of 37 ± 16 months, nine subjects experienced MACE. In multivariable Cox-regression analysis, only the presence of CAD by CCTA independently predicted future MACE (p = 0.002). Moreover, CAD by CCTA improved the predictive value when added to a clinical risk factor model using the likelihood ratio test (p < 0.001). Notably, the prognostic value of CCTA persisted in the moderate-to-high-risk group as classified by the Duke treadmill score (p = 0.040), but not in the low-risk group (p = 0.991).

CONCLUSION

CCTA provides incremental prognostic benefit over and above XECG in an asymptomatic population, especially for those in a moderate-to-high-risk group as classified by the Duke treadmill score. Risk stratification using XECG may prove valuable for identifying asymptomatic subjects who can benefit from CCTA.

Prognostic value of coronary CTA vs. exercise treadmill testing: results from the Partners registry

AIMS

We sought to compare the complementary prognostic value of exercise treadmill testing (ETT) and coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) among patients referred for both exams.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 582 patients without known coronary artery disease (CAD) who were clinically referred for ETT and CTA within 6 months. Patients were followed for cardiovascular (CV) death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), or late revascularization (>90 days), stratified by Duke Treadmill Score (DTS) and CAD severity (≥50% stenosis). Mean age was 54 ± 13 years (63% male). In median follow-up of 40 months, there were 3 CV deaths, 7 non-fatal MIs, and 26 late revascularizations. ETT was inconclusive in 23%, positive in 31%, and negative in 46%. CTA demonstrated no CAD in 37%, non-obstructive CAD in 28%, and obstructive CAD in 35%. Among low-risk ETT patients (n = 326), there were 3 MI, 10 late revascularizations, and the frequent presence of non-obstructive (32%, n = 105) and obstructive CAD (27%, n = 88). When present, ETT features (i.e., angina, DTS, ischaemic electrocardiogram changes, and exercise capacity) individually failed to predict CV death/MI after adjustment for Morise score. Conversely, both obstructive CAD [HR 4.9 (1.0-23.3), P = 0.048] and CAD extent by segment involvement score >4 [HR 3.9 (1.0-15.2), P = 0.049] predicted increased risk for CV death or MI.

CONCLUSION

Patients with a low-risk ETT have an excellent prognosis at 40 months, despite the frequent presence of non-obstructive (32%) and obstructive (27%) CAD. In patients with an intermediate- to high-risk ETT (DTS <5), CTA can provide incremental risk stratification for future CV events.

The optimal imaging strategy for patients with stable chest pain: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

The optimal imaging strategy for patients with stable chest pain is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of different imaging strategies for patients with stable chest pain.

DESIGN

Microsimulation state-transition model.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

60-year-old patients with a low to intermediate probability of coronary artery disease (CAD).

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

The United States, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.

INTERVENTION

Coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography, cardiac stress magnetic resonance imaging, stress single-photon emission CT, and stress echocardiography.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

The strategy that maximized QALYs and was cost-effective in the United States and the Netherlands began with coronary CT angiography, continued with cardiac stress imaging if angiography found at least 50% stenosis in at least 1 coronary artery, and ended with catheter-based coronary angiography if stress imaging induced ischemia of any severity. For U.K. men, the preferred strategy was optimal medical therapy without catheter-based coronary angiography if coronary CT angiography found only moderate CAD or stress imaging induced only mild ischemia. In these strategies, stress echocardiography was consistently more effective and less expensive than other stress imaging tests. For U.K. women, the optimal strategy was stress echocardiography followed by catheter-based coronary angiography if echocardiography induced mild or moderate ischemia.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Results were sensitive to changes in the probability of CAD and assumptions about false-positive results.

LIMITATIONS

All cardiac stress imaging tests were assumed to be available. Exercise electrocardiography was included only in a sensitivity analysis. Differences in QALYs among strategies were small.

CONCLUSION

Coronary CT angiography is a cost-effective triage test for 60-year-old patients who have nonacute chest pain and a low to intermediate probability of CAD.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Erasmus University Medical Center.

Korean guidelines for the appropriate use of cardiac CT

The development of cardiac CT has provided a non-invasive alternative to echocardiography, exercise electrocardiogram, and invasive angiography and cardiac CT continues to develop at an exponential speed even now. The appropriate use of cardiac CT may lead to improvements in the medical performances of physicians and can reduce medical costs which eventually contribute to better public health. However, until now, there has been no guideline regarding the appropriate use of cardiac CT in Korea. We intend to provide guidelines for the appropriate use of cardiac CT in heart diseases based on scientific data. The purpose of this guideline is to assist clinicians and other health professionals in the use of cardiac CT for diagnosis and treatment of heart diseases, especially in patients at high risk or suspected of heart disease.

The association of rate of weight gain during early adulthood with the prevalence of subclinical coronary artery disease in recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes: the MAXWEL-CAD study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of the rate of weight gain (Ratemax_wt) between the age of 20 years and the age of maximum lifetime weight gain with indicators of subclinical coronary artery disease (CAD) at the time of diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2D).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied 1,724 consecutive Korean subjects aged ≥30 years with recently diagnosed (within 3 months) T2D and one or more cardiovascular risk factors to investigate the association of Ratemax_wt with subclinical CAD. We used 64-slice cardiac computed tomography angiography to evaluate the degree of coronary artery stenosis, multivessel involvement, plaque characteristics, and coronary artery calcium score (CACS). Body weight at age 20 years (Wt20y) was obtained from participant records. Participants recalled their maximum weight (Wtmax) before T2D diagnosis and age at maximum weight (Agemax_wt). The Ratemax_wt was calculated as (Wtmax - Wt20y) / (Agemax_wt - 20 years).

RESULTS

The prevalence of coronary artery stenosis (≥50%), multivessel involvement (two or more vessels), plaque characteristics, and CACS ≥100 were 11.4%, 6.6%, 19.7%, and 12.8%, respectively. Mean Wt20y and Wtmax were 60.1 ± 10.5 and 73.0 ± 11.5 kg, respectively. Mean Agemax_wt was 41.3 ± 10.7 years, and Ratemax_wt was 0.59 ± 0.56 kg/year. After adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors, including current BMI, the highest quarter of prior weight gain was significantly associated with coronary artery stenosis, multivessel involvement, and plaque characteristics, particularly mixed and noncalcified plaque.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that a greater rate of prior weight gain may accelerate the development of subclinical vascular complications in patients with newly diagnosed T2D.

A long-term prognostic value of CT angiography and exercise ECG in patients with suspected CAD

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to perform a comparison of the prognostic performance of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTA) and exercise electrocardiography (ex-ECG) in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD).

BACKGROUND

CAD is a major cause of mortality and morbidity, and its management consumes a large proportion of the health care budget. Therefore, identification of patients at high risk of adverse events is crucial. Despite its limited accuracy, ex-ECG is the most commonly used noninvasive test in CAD evaluation. CTA was recently introduced as alternative test.

METHODS

We enrolled 681 patients (age 61.3 ± 10.4 years, 461 men) with atypical or typical angina and no history of CAD. All patients underwent ex-ECG and CTA and were followed for 44 ±12 months. The endpoints were all cardiac events, defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction, cardiac death, and revascularization, and hard cardiac events, defined as all cardiac events excluding revascularization.

RESULTS

ex-ECG and CTA were rated as positive in 419 (61%) and 274 (40%) of 681 patients, respectively. In univariate analysis, both ex-ECG and CTA were predictors of all cardiac events (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5 to 2.8; p < 0.0001 and HR: 21.1, 95% CI: 14.6 to 30.5; p < 0.0001, respectively) and hard cardiac events (HR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1 to 3.2; p = 0.02 and HR: 6.8, 95% CI: 3.9 to 11.0; p < 0.0001, respectively), whereas in a multivariate analysis, CAD with ≥50% stenoses detected by CTA was the only independent predictor of hard cardiac events. Stratifying our population by ex-ECG and CTA findings, Kaplan-Meier curves showed that ex-ECG provides only a further risk stratification in the subset of patients with positive findings on CTA and a low to intermediate likelihood of CAD. Moreover, positive findings on CTA identify a shorter event-free period, regardless the ex-ECG findings for both all cardiac events and hard cardiac events, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

CTA may have a higher prognostic value compared with ex-ECG in patients with suspected CAD, mainly in those with a low to intermediate pre-test likelihood of CAD.

Coronary computed tomography angiography in the assessment of acute chest pain in the emergency room

The coronary computed tomography angiography has recently emerged as an accurate diagnostic tool in the evaluation of coronary artery disease, providing diagnostic and prognostic data that correlate directly with the data provided by invasive coronary angiography. The association of recent technological developments has allowed improved temporal resolution and better spatial coverage of the cardiac volume with significant reduction in radiation dose, and with the crucial need for more effective protocols of risk stratification of patients with chest pain in the emergency room, recent evaluation of the computed tomography coronary angiography has been performed in the setting of acute chest pain, as about two thirds of invasive coronary angiographies show no significantly obstructive coronary artery disease. In daily practice, without the use of more efficient technologies, such as coronary angiography by computed tomography, safe and efficient stratification of patients with acute chest pain remains a challenge to the medical team in the emergency room.

Recently, several studies, including three randomized trials, showed favorable results with the use of this technology in the emergency department for patients with low to intermediate likelihood of coronary artery disease. In this review, we show data resulting from coronary angiography by computed tomography in risk stratification of patients with chest pain in the emergency room, its diagnostic value, prognosis and cost-effectiveness and a critical analysis of recently published multicenter studies.

Association of cardiac events with coronary artery disease detected by 64-slice or greater coronary CT angiography: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The value of ≥64-slice coronary CT angiography (CCTA) to determine odds of cardiac death or non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) needs further clarification.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis using publications reporting events/severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with suspected CAD undergoing CCTA. Patients were divided into: no CAD, non-obstructive CAD (maximal stenosis <50%), and obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis). Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a fixed or random effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I(2) index.

RESULTS

We included thirty-two studies comprising 41,960 patients with 363 all-cause deaths (15.0%), 114 cardiac deaths (4.7%), 342 MI (14.2%), 69 unstable angina (2.8%), and 1527 late revascularizations (63.2%) over 1.96 (SD 0.77) years of follow-up. Cardiac death or MI occurred in 0.04% without, 1.29% with non-obstructive, and 6.53% with obstructive CAD. OR for cardiac death or MI was: 14.92 (95% CI, 6.78 to 32.85) for obstructive CAD, 6.41 (95% CI, 2.44 to 16.84) for non-obstructive CAD versus no CAD, and 3.19 (95% CI, 2.29 to 4.45) for non-obstructive versus obstructive CAD and 6.56 (95% CI, 3.07 to 14.02) for no versus any CAD. Similar trends were noted for all-cause mortality and composite major adverse cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing CAD severity detected by CCTA is associated with cardiac death or MI, all-cause mortality, and composite major adverse cardiovascular events. Absence of CAD is associated with very low odds of major adverse events, but non-obstructive disease significantly increases odds of cardiac adverse events in this follow-up period.

[Pre- and post-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease in two diagnostic strategies: relative contributions of exercise ECG and coronary CT angiography]

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study was to assess the change in theoretical probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with suspected CAD undergoing coronary CT angiography (CCTA) as first line test vs. patients who underwent CCTA after an exercise ECG.

METHODS

Pre- and post-test probabilities of CAD were assessed in 158 patients with suspected CAD undergoing dual-source CCTA as the first-line test (Group A) and in 134 in whom CCTA was performed after an exercise ECG (Group B). Pre-test probabilities were calculated based on age, gender and type of chest pain. Post-test probabilities were calculated according to Bayes' theorem.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences between the groups regarding pre-test probability (median 23.5% [13.3-37.8] in group A vs. 20.5% [13.4-34.5] in group B; p=0,479). In group A, the percentage of patients with intermediate likelihood of disease (10-90%) was 90% before testing and 15% after CCTA (p<0,001), while in group B, it was 95% before testing, 87% after exercise ECG (p=NS), and 17% after CCTA (p<0,001).

CONCLUSION

Unlike exercise testing, CCTA is able to reclassify the risk in the majority of patients with an intermediate probability of obstructive CAD. The use of CCTA as a first-line diagnostic test for CAD may be beneficial in this setting.

Effects on costs of frontline diagnostic evaluation in patients suspected of angina: coronary computed tomography angiography vs. conventional ischaemia testing

AIMS

The aim of this study was to investigate in patients with stable angina the effects on costs of frontline diagnostics by exercise-stress testing (ex-test) vs. coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In two coronary units at Lillebaelt Hospital, Denmark, 498 patients were identified in whom either ex-test (n = 247) or CTA (n = 251) were applied as the frontline diagnostic strategy in symptomatic patients with a low-intermediate pre-test probability of coronary artery disease (CAD). During 12 months of follow-up, death, myocardial infarction and costs associated with downstream diagnostic utilization (DTU), treatment, ambulatory visits, and hospitalizations were registered. There was no difference between cohorts in demographic characteristics or the pre-test probability of significant CAD. The mean (SD) age was 56 (11) years; 52% were men; and 96% were at low-intermediate pre-test probability of CAD. All serious cardiac events (n = 3) during follow-up occurred in patients with a negative ex-test result. Mean costs per patient associated with DTU, ambulatory visits, and cardiovascular medication were significantly higher in the ex-test than in the CTA group. The mean (SD) total costs per patient at the end of the follow-up were 14% lower in the CTA group than in the ex-test group, € 1510 (3474) vs. €1777 (3746) (P = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Diagnostic assessment of symptomatic patients with a low-intermediate probability of CAD by CTA incurred lower costs when compared with the ex-test. These findings need confirmation in future prospective trials.

Prediction model to estimate presence of coronary artery disease: retrospective pooled analysis of existing cohorts

OBJECTIVES

To develop prediction models that better estimate the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations.

DESIGN

Retrospective pooled analysis of individual patient data.

SETTING

18 hospitals in Europe and the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with stable chest pain without evidence for previous coronary artery disease, if they were referred for computed tomography (CT) based coronary angiography or catheter based coronary angiography (indicated as low and high prevalence settings, respectively).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Obstructive coronary artery disease (≥ 50% diameter stenosis in at least one vessel found on catheter based coronary angiography). Multiple imputation accounted for missing predictors and outcomes, exploiting strong correlation between the two angiography procedures. Predictive models included a basic model (age, sex, symptoms, and setting), clinical model (basic model factors and diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and smoking), and extended model (clinical model factors and use of the CT based coronary calcium score). We assessed discrimination (c statistic), calibration, and continuous net reclassification improvement by cross validation for the four largest low prevalence datasets separately and the smaller remaining low prevalence datasets combined.

RESULTS

We included 5677 patients (3283 men, 2394 women), of whom 1634 had obstructive coronary artery disease found on catheter based coronary angiography. All potential predictors were significantly associated with the presence of disease in univariable and multivariable analyses. The clinical model improved the prediction, compared with the basic model (cross validated c statistic improvement from 0.77 to 0.79, net reclassification improvement 35%); the coronary calcium score in the extended model was a major predictor (0.79 to 0.88, 102%). Calibration for low prevalence datasets was satisfactory.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated prediction models including age, sex, symptoms, and cardiovascular risk factors allow for accurate estimation of the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. Addition of coronary calcium scores to the prediction models improves the estimates.

Coronary computed tomography versus exercise testing in patients with stable chest pain: comparative effectiveness and costs

BACKGROUND

To determine the comparative effectiveness and costs of a CT-strategy and a stress-electrocardiography-based strategy (standard-of-care; SOC-strategy) for diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

A decision analysis was performed based on a well-documented prospective cohort of 471 outpatients with stable chest pain with follow-up combined with best-available evidence from the literature. Outcomes were correct classification of patients as CAD- (no obstructive CAD), CAD+ (obstructive CAD without revascularization) and indication for Revascularization (using a combination reference standard), diagnostic costs, lifetime health care costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Parameter uncertainty was analyzed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

For men (and women), diagnostic cost savings were €245 (€252) for the CT-strategy as compared to the SOC-strategy. The CT-strategy classified 82% (88%) of simulated men (women) in the appropriate disease category, whereas 83% (85%) were correctly classified by the SOC-strategy. The long-term cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the SOC-strategy was dominated by the CT-strategy, which was less expensive (-€229 in men, -€444 in women) and more effective (+0.002 QALY in men, +0.005 in women). The CT-strategy was cost-saving (-€231) but also less effective compared to SOC (-0.003 QALY) in men with a pre-test probability of ≥ 70%. The CT-strategy was cost-effective in 100% of simulations, except for men with a pre-test probability ≥ 70% in which case it was 59%.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that a CT-based strategy is less expensive and equally effective compared to SOC in all women and in men with a pre-test probability <70%.